Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 Maiden Claiming 8F Dirt
Win: CANDY CANE CRAIN (6) – 63% confidence
Place: RECKLESS (12) – 38% confidence
Show: PRIME SUSPECT (2) – 50% confidence
Alternative: SCUFFLE (11) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts overwhelmingly favor Candy Cane Crain (6) as the primary win candidate. Prime Suspect (2) is noted as a strong contender moving to two turns, while analysts expect Reckless (12) to offer a challenge based on consistent Churchill Downs form.
Race 2 Claiming 8F 110Y Dirt
Win: SIVAKO (2) – 43% confidence
Place: HUGE BIGLY (7) – 29% confidence
Show: MAGIC GRANT (3) – 43% confidence
Alternative: INCA EMPIRE (4) – 43% confidence
Race Notes: This race presents a wide split in analyst opinions. While Sivako (2) holds the win slot, several analysts believe Huge Bigly (7) and Magic Grant (3) are equally likely to finish in the money given their track specialization.
Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming 1320Y Dirt
Win: ZIPPY MARK (10) – 38% confidence
Place: GETTINBY (4) – 38% confidence
Show: NICHOLAI (3) – 38% confidence
Alternative: TRIPLE UP (2) – 50% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts find little separation between the top three runners. One analyst warns of a potential bounce for Gettinby (4) after a high-effort previous race, while Zippy Mark (10) is viewed as having the ideal outside draw.
Race 4 Claiming 1320Y Dirt
Win: EGLISE (12) – 57% confidence
Place: PAYNE (8) – 43% confidence
Show: HAP HOT (1) – 43% confidence
Alternative: CLASSIC CUT (6) – 43% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts focus on Eglise (12) dropping in class as the primary threat. Payne (8) is consistently selected as a primary rival, though analysts warn that both favorites may be vulnerable to pace pressure from the rail-drawn Hap Hot (1).
Race 5 Maiden Special Weight 1320Y Dirt
Win: SILVER SYNDICATE (2) – 43% confidence
Place: CACTUS CHARLIE (7) – 43% confidence
Show: BABY VINO (3) – 71% confidence
Alternative: TOP LEVEL (4) – 43% confidence
Race Notes: A highly competitive maiden field with analysts highlighting Baby Vino (3) for high show confidence. Silver Syndicate (2) is viewed with caution due to first-time starter statistics, while Cactus Charlie (7) is a preferred alternative.
Race 6 Martha Washington Stakes 8F 110Y Dirt
Win: COUNTING STARS (5) – 71% confidence
Place: HIT PARADE (6) – 57% confidence
Show: SEARCH PARTY (3) – 71% confidence
Alternative: MAXIMUM OFFER (2) – 14% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts exhibit very high confidence in the top three finishers. Counting Stars (5) is the dominant choice, though analysts respect the tenacity of Hit Parade (6) coming off recent stakes success.
Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 8F 110Y Dirt
Win: SILVER PRINCE (4) – 86% confidence
Place: OWIE (6) – 29% confidence
Show: ROCKY RACCOON (1) – 29% confidence
Alternative: BAYOU FLYER (3) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: Silver Prince (4) commands the highest confidence on the card. Analysts suggest a vertical strategy behind the favorite, noting Rocky Raccoon (1) may benefit from an inside trip.
Race 8 General Macarthur Overnight Stakes 9F Dirt
Win: SUPER CRUISE (3) – 71% confidence
Place: SIR GREYLIND (5) – 43% confidence
Show: ENERGIZE (8) – 29% confidence
Alternative: FIRST DIVISION (11) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: Super Cruise (3) is the strong choice among analysts. However, an analyst notes that Energize (8) could potentially steal the race on the front end if the pace tempo remains slow.
Race 9 Allowance 1320Y Dirt
Win: VITAL MIND (5) – 86% confidence
Place: SHARP SWINGER (8) – 57% confidence
Show: HYMN (10) – 29% confidence
Alternative: CAMP EVANS (1) – 14% confidence
Race Notes: Vital Mind (5) is considered a standout by nearly all analysts. Analysts expect Sharp Swinger (8) to be the only legitimate threat, provided the pace remains honest.
Race 10 Bugler Overnight Stakes 1320Y Dirt
Win: BLUE FIRE (8) – 57% confidence
Place: FOIE GRAS (5) – 57% confidence
Show: MISS ELLE (9) – 43% confidence
Alternative: HARBOR SPRINGS (2) – 14% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts are split between Blue Fire (8) and Foie Gras (5). While Blue Fire (8) is the slight consensus win choice, multiple analysts emphasize that Foie Gras (5) has been working sharply.
Race 11 Southwest Stakes – Grade 3 8F 110Y Dirt
Win: DCODE (2) – 43% confidence
Place: LITMUS TEST (5) – 43% confidence
Show: STRATEGIC RISK (9) – 57% confidence
Alternative: LIBERTY NATIONAL (7) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: Analytical tension is high in this graded event. Opinion is fragmented between Litmus Test (5) and Dcode (2), with analysts suggesting Strategic Risk (9) will likely hit the board regardless of the win outcome.
Race 12 Starter Allowance 9F Dirt
Win: MONEY RUN (12) – 43% confidence
Place: BRIGHT SPARK (2) – 43% confidence
Show: MY NOBLE KNIGHT (6) – 43% confidence
Alternative: GEWURZTRAMINER (11) – 29% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts suggest caution in the finale. Money Run (12) is the narrow consensus, but analysts express skepticism about pairing high-effort runs, making Bright Spark (2) a logical play.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Analysts recommend an Exacta Box featuring Prime Suspect (2), Candy Cane Crain (6), and Reckless (12). For Pick 5 players, this is a race to spread.
Race 2: Analysts suggest a Trifecta Key with Sivako (2) over Huge Bigly (7), Magic Grant (3), and Inca Empire (4). The wide distribution of picks makes a Superfecta box a viable longshot play.
Race 3: Analysts favor a Daily Double starting here. A Trifecta box including Triple Up (2), Gettinby (4), and Zippy Mark (10) is recommended for horizontal value.
Race 4: Exacta Part-Wheel Eglise (12) over Payne (8), Classic Cut (6), and Hap Hot (1). Analysts note this race as a potential single for Pick 4 sequences.
Race 5: Analysts suggest a Pick 3 play. A Trifecta Box using Silver Syndicate (2), Cactus Charlie (7), and Baby Vino (3) captures the primary market movers.
Race 6: Analysts recommend a cold Exacta Counting Stars (5) and Hit Parade (6). For deeper value, a Trifecta Key with Counting Stars (5) over the field.
Race 7: Vertical exotics are recommended here. A Superfecta Wheel with Silver Prince (4) on top over Owie (6), Rocky Raccoon (1), and Bayou Flyer (3).
Race 8: Analysts propose a Trifecta Box consisting of Super Cruise (3), Sir Greylind (5), and Energize (8). An Exacta Part-Wheel with Super Cruise (3) over the field is also suggested.
Race 9: Exacta Wheel Vital Mind (5) over Sharp Swinger (8) and Hymn (10). Analysts view this as the strongest multi-race anchor on the card.
Race 10: Analysts recommend an Exacta Box with Blue Fire (8) and Foie Gras (5). A Trifecta Key using Blue Fire (8) over Foie Gras (5), Miss Elle (9), and Harbor Springs (2) offers value.
Race 11: Analysts suggest a broad Superfecta Box for the Southwest Stakes including Dcode (2), Litmus Test (5), Strategic Risk (9), and Liberty National (7) due to field depth.
Race 12: Exacta Box Bright Spark (2), Money Run (12), and My Noble Knight (6). Analysts advise a defensive Pick 4/Pick 5 approach here using all three.
Value Play Observations
Race 3: Gettinby (4) is viewed by analysts as an underlaid favorite. With 38 percent consensus but high morning line favoritism, analysts suggest Zippy Mark (10) as a better value proposition for win bettors.
Race 5: Baby Vino (3) is identified as a potential overlay. Analysts have 71 percent confidence in a show finish, yet morning line odds suggest a much lower probability, creating a wagering opportunity in vertical pools.
Race 7: Silver Prince (4) is the heavy analyst favorite, but Bayou Flyer (3) is noted by analysts as an interesting longshot. Analysts suggest Bayou Flyer (3) could offer significant value in place and show positions relative to his long odds.
Race 8: Energize (8) is marked by analysts as a pace-based value play. If the favorite Super Cruise (3) faces early pressure, Energize (8) is perfectly positioned to provide a high-priced upset.
Race 11: Strategic Risk (9) commands high consensus confidence for a board finish (57 percent) despite not being the clear favorite. Analysts see this as a high-probability “safety” horse for multi-race exotic constructions.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races: Analysts find the highest degree of certainty in Race 7 and Race 9. Silver Prince (4) in the seventh race commands 86 percent confidence, largely due to a massive figure in his debut and expected improvement at two turns. Similarly, Vital Mind (5) in the ninth race is backed by 86 percent of analysts, who view him as a stakes-caliber animal currently running through his conditions. Both horses are considered foundational anchors for horizontal wagers such as the Pick 4 and Pick 6.
Split-Opinion Races: Race 2 and Race 11 represent the primary points of analytical tension on the card. In the second race, consensus is evenly distributed across four runners, suggesting a chaotic pace scenario and high field volatility. In the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (Race 11), analysts are nearly equally divided between the raw speed of Dcode (2) and the proven class of Litmus Test (5). These races require a spread approach in multi-race sequences to avoid early exits.
Multi-Race Sequences: Analysts identify a high-value Pick 3 sequence starting in Race 4 through Race 6. With Eglise (12) and Counting Stars (5) commanding significant consensus backing in the bookends of this sequence, bettors can afford to spread slightly more in the Race 5 maiden special weight. The Southwest Day card offers significant carryover potential if the favorites in the early sequences are overturned by high-confidence show horses like Baby Vino (3).
Exotic Value Opportunities: Race 12 and Race 2 provide the best structural opportunities for high-payout exotics. Analysts note that these races feature horses with high “analytical variance,” where form is inconsistent and pricing is often inefficient. Recommended approaches include superfecta wheels or four-horse combinations in these races to capture the upside of potential upsets at a controlled cost. The finale, in particular, features several consistent performers whose morning line odds may not reflect their actual probability of hitting the board.
Environmental/Track Factors: Analysts note the cold 34 degree Fahrenheit temperature may impact track consistency. With a month-long gap between racing days at Oaklawn, analysts expect a fair surface but warn that early speed might be more advantageous in the sprint races (Races 3, 4, 5, 9, 10). Pace patterns suggest several front-runners in the maiden races could struggle if the track remains heavy, potentially favoring late closers like Prime Suspect (2) or Strategic Risk (9).
Key Takeaways: Priority should be given to anchoring tickets with Silver Prince (4) and Vital Mind (5) while looking for value in the Martha Washington Stakes through horizontal play. Focus on vertical exotics in the Southwest Stakes to capitalize on the split opinion between the top favorites. Use the high show-confidence on Baby Vino (3) to bolster place and show wagers in the middle of the card.
