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Race 1: Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Pastero (1) – 60% confidence
Place: Week’s Strong (10) – 40% confidence
Show: Stinger Bee (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: El Tamalero (12) – 60% confidence
Race Notes: Pastero commands the majority of top-selection votes, though support for Week’s Strong suggests a competitive exacta. The field is split between these two main contenders and the rest of the pack.
Race 2: Claiming, 7 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Sister Marjorie (7) – 60% confidence
Place: J J’s Honor (2) – 40% confidence
Show: Inamorata (11) – 20% confidence
Alternative: To Be Loved By You – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Sister Marjorie is the clear standout with backing from multiple sources. The race for place and show is muddy, with opinions diverging between J J’s Honor and Inamorata.
Race 3: Starter Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Mo Says (4) – 50% confidence
Place: Friday Surprise (3) – 33% confidence
Show: Huggy (6) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Big Z Og (7) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: While Mo Says has the strongest plurality of win picks, the presence of distinct top picks for Huggy, Big Z Og, and Friday Surprise indicates a potentially volatile race where the favorite may be vulnerable.
Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt
Win: Tested (4) – 33% confidence
Place: Light My Way (2) – 33% confidence
Show: Brave Blend (6) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Encrypt (3) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: This is one of the most contentious races on the card. There is no clear consensus, with four different horses receiving top-pick status. This suggests a spread-out betting pool and potential value on the board.
Race 5: Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Samantha’s Capo (7) – 80% confidence
Place: Craving Carbs (1) – 40% confidence
Show: Just Fancy Free (9) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Shaunnasaprilfool (10) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Samantha’s Capo is one of the strongest consensus plays of the day, missing a sweep only due to one dissenting voice favoring Craving Carbs. This looks like a potential single in multi-race sequences.
Race 6: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Sheza Bernardini (1) – 100% confidence
Place: Awesome Annmarie (7) – 60% confidence
Show: Fuhgeddaboudit (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Hot Fudge Warrior (4) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts are unanimous in selecting Sheza Bernardini to win. The agreement extends to the minor awards, with Awesome Annmarie frequently cited as the runner-up.
Race 7: Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Easy Action (3) – 80% confidence
Place: Backside Buzz (7) – 20% confidence
Show: Mac Daddy Too (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Young Squire (9) – 40% confidence
Race Notes: Easy Action enjoys dominant support similar to Race 6. The race for the underneath spots is less defined, suggesting using the favorite over “all” or a wide spread in exotic wagers.
Race 8: Claiming, 1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt
Win: Bestsugardaddyever (5) – 83% confidence
Place: Epic Luck (8) – 50% confidence
Show: Silent Mode (6) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Styner (1) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: Another strong consensus favorite emerges here. Bestsugardaddyever is the near-universal choice, with Epic Luck consistently pegged for the place position.
Race 9: Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Lovely Charm (11) – 40% confidence
Place: Sweet Laura (3) – 20% confidence
Show: Aoife’s Magic (9) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Vieux Carre (1) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: A highly fragmented race. Analysts are split between four different winners. Lovely Charm has a slight edge in total mentions, but conviction is low. This is a “spread” race.
Race 10: Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt
Win: Capital Conquest (6) – 60% confidence
Place: Amazing Woo (9) – 40% confidence
Show: Dither (5) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Magicnthemoonlight – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Capital Conquest holds the majority opinion, but Dither and Magicnthemoonlight have their supporters. The consensus suggests a Capital Conquest / Amazing Woo exacta box is the baseline play.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Exacta Box: Pastero (1) / Week’s Strong (10) Trifecta Key: Pastero (1) over Week’s Strong (10), Stinger Bee (3), and El Tamalero (12). Analysts see a clear tiering here, with two horses separating themselves from the rest.
Race 5
Superfecta Wheel: Samantha’s Capo (7) KEY / Craving Carbs (1), Just Fancy Free (9), Shaunnasaprilfool (10), Rosie Outlook (11). With high confidence in the winner, leveraging a single key to capture a price in the lower rungs of the superfecta is a sound strategy.
Race 6
Trifecta Straight: Sheza Bernardini (1) / Awesome Annmarie (7) / Fuhgeddaboudit (3). Daily Double: Sheza Bernardini (1) with Easy Action (3) (Race 7). The unanimity on the winner allows for aggressive straight wagers and using this race as a pivot for horizontal bets.
Race 8
Exacta Straight: Bestsugardaddyever (5) over Epic Luck (8). Pick 3 Anchor: Bestsugardaddyever (5). The consensus indicates a very specific finish order (5-8), making straight exactas more efficient than boxes.
Value Play Observations
Race 3: Huggy (6) While Mo Says (4) takes the consensus top spot, several analysts have identified Huggy (6) as a top contender. If the public heavily bets the 4, the 6 offers significant value as a win bet or an exacta key.
Race 4: Light My Way (2) In a race with four different predicted winners, Light My Way (2) appears to have solid backing but may go off at higher odds than Tested (4). The split opinion creates an overlay opportunity for whichever of the top four drifts up in price.
Race 9: Sweet Laura (3) With the field wide open and no dominant favorite, Sweet Laura (3) appears in the top tier of several handicappers but is not the “vogue” pick. This is a prime spot for a value win bet against a soft favorite like Lovely Charm.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The card features three potential “lock” races where analyst confidence exceeds 80%: Race 6 (Sheza Bernardini), Race 7 (Easy Action), and Race 8 (Bestsugardaddyever). In Race 6, every single source analyzed selected Sheza Bernardini to win, creating the strongest anchor on the card. Race 5 (Samantha’s Capo) also shows near-unanimous support. These races should form the backbone of any multi-race wagers.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 4 and Race 9 are the most chaotic events of the day. In Race 4, four different horses received top-pick status, indicating a lack of clarity on form or pace scenario. Similarly, Race 9 is a scramble with low conviction across the board. These are the races to “spread” in (use multiple horses) to survive Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequences, or to skip entirely if playing a limited budget.
Multi-Race Sequences
A distinct opportunity exists in the Race 5 through Race 8 sequence. You have three strong consensus favorites (Samantha’s Capo in R5, Sheza Bernardini in R6, Easy Action in R7, and Bestsugardaddyever in R8). A Pick 4 ticket singling these four—or perhaps singling R6 and R8 while going two-deep in R5 and R7—offers a high-probability, low-cost structure. The reduced volatility in these legs allows capital to be saved for the harder bookend races (Race 4 and Race 9).
Exotic Value Opportunities
The uniformity in Race 8 (Bestsugardaddyever over Epic Luck) suggests the exacta pool will be over-bet on that combination. Value seekers should look to the Trifecta or Superfecta in Race 8, using the 5-8 cold exacta on top and spreading deep for 3rd and 4th place. Often, when the top two are obvious, the competition for the minor shares is fierce and pays better than the predictable exacta.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the mid-card: Build your day around the Pick 4 sequence starting in Race 5. The alignment of expert opinion here is rare and should be exploited.
- Fade the noise in Race 4: Do not take a short price in Race 4. With four experts picking four different winners, any favorite is likely a false favorite. Look for odds of 5-1 or better on any of the top contenders (Light My Way, Tested, Brave Blend).
- Capitalize on Race 8 Exacta: Use the 5-8 pairing as a key for vertical exotics rather than a standalone bet, where the return will be minimal.
