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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 7 furlongs – Dirt – $27,000 BOXED TRIFECTA
Based on 8 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Expensive Game (4) – 25% confidence🥈
Place: Roman Eagle (3) – 12% confidence🥉Show: Powder Keg (6) – 25% confidenceAlternative: Quality Style (2) – 12% confidence🥇
Race Notes: Expensive Game shows moderate support as the consensus winner but with only 25% confidence, indicating competitive field. Quality Style and Roman Eagle provide alternative structures. Multiple analysts view this as competitive, with early speed likely setting up mid-pack runners. Value plays available in exacta structures, particularly Expensive Game-Roman Eagle with Roman Eagle-Quality Style trifecta.
Race 2 – Maiden – 1 1/16 miles – Dirt – $38,000 WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA
Based on 8 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Gloryibee (2) – 38% confidence🥇
Place: Courtinbymoonlight (6) – 38% confidence🥉
Show: Grand Circle (5) – 25% confidence🥈
Race Notes: Gloryibee commands strong 38% consensus to win with productive recent form. Courtinbymoonlight shows matching 38% confidence suggesting tight finish potential between these two. This is one of the sharpest races on the card with clear standouts. Gloryibee-Courtinbymoonlight exacta receives consistent analyst support. Primary play: win on Gloryibee with place/show exotics including Courtinbymoonlight.
Race 3 – Claiming – 6 furlongs – Dirt – $22,000 BOXED TRIFECTA
Based on 6 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Solevo (4) – 17% confidence🥈
Place: Three Echoes (6) – 33% confidence🥉
Show: Copper Echo (2) – 33% confidence🥇
Race Notes: Weakest consensus on early card with divided support across multiple contenders. Solevo shows only 17% win confidence. Three Echoes and Copper Echo are better supported in place/show, suggesting these horses will likely run in money. This is uncertain territory. Conservative approach recommended. Consider playing Three Echoes and Copper Echo in exacta combinations with Solevo or Choice Not Chance as alternative win options.
Race 4 – Maiden – 5 1/2 furlongs – Dirt – $38,000 WIN
Based on 8 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Stormforged (2) – 50% confidence🥇
Place: Renton (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Moneymilitia (5) – 12% confidence🥈
Alternative: Astro Beau (1) – 12% confidence
Race Notes: Stormforged emerges as dominant selection at 50% confidence – one of the strongest plays on the card. Renton provides balanced place support. This maiden special weight shows clear analyst consensus around the top choice. Recommended wagering structure: Stormforged to win with place/show boxes including Renton. Strong consecutive play from Race 3 to Race 4.
Race 5 – Claiming – 1 1/16 miles – Dirt – $17,500 WIN + TRIFECTA
Based on 6 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Janes Girls (3) – 17% confidence🥇
Place: Mucho Mia (7) – 33% confidence🥈
Show: Gospel Fabulous (1) – 33% confidence🥉
Race Notes: Divided consensus with Janes Girls receiving only 17% win support. Mucho Mia and Gospel Fabulous show stronger place/show backing at 33% each, suggesting these runners will likely finish in the money. Minimal win confidence indicates uncertain outcome. Conservative approach required – consider pass for better spots or minimal wagers on Janes Girls with multi-leg flexibility.
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 5 furlongs – Dirt – $40,000 WIN
Based on 7 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Mi Saturday (1) – 29% confidence🥇
Place: Devious Dennis (2) – 29% confidence
Show: Connors Outlaw (5) – 43% confidence🥉
Race Notes: Mi Saturday and Devious Dennis split win/place support equally at 29% each, indicating competitive match. Connors Outlaw is strongest at 43% show confidence, suggesting this runner will likely be in the money. Five-furlong sprint typically favors early speed and pace control. Value structure: exacta box with Mi Saturday-Devious Dennis over Connors Outlaw. Trifecta plays should include Connors Outlaw in the third slot.
Race 7 – Allowance – 6 furlongs – Dirt – $39,000 WIN + EXACTA
Based on 6 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Risk It (4) – 50% confidence🥇
Place: Chivalrous (3) – 33% confidence🥈
Show: Hollywood Icon (1) – 50% confidence
Race Notes: Risk It dominates at 50% confidence to win with strong consistent support. Hollywood Icon equally backed at 50% show confidence, indicating maiden winner with competitive form. This is one of the card’s strongest racing decisions with clear consensus separation. Risk It-Chivalrous-Hollywood Icon trifecta receives solid analyst support. Primary play: solid win on Risk It with exacta coverage through Chivalrous and Hollywood Icon. One of the best plays on the card.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 5 1/2 furlongs – Dirt – $39,000
Based on 8 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Perfect Audible (1) – 25% confidence🥉
Place: Stretch (2) – 38% confidence🥈
Show: West of Town (5) – 12% confidence
Race Notes: Softer consensus than Race 7 with Perfect Audible at only 25% win confidence. Stretch emerges strongest at 38% place confidence, suggesting this runner will likely be in the money. West of Town at 12% show confidence indicates uncertainty on third position. Defensive approach recommended. Focus on Stretch place backing with Perfect Audible and Canned Heat as win alternatives. This is a pass-or-minimum-wager race relative to earlier strong opportunities.
Race 9 – Allowance – 1 mile – Dirt – $39,000 WIN + EXACTA
Based on 7 Pick Pony analysts
Win: Vestes (1) – 14% confidence🥇
Place: All In Okie (4) – 14% confidence🥈Show: Out to Party (2) – 43% confidence
Race Notes: Weakest win consensus on entire card at only 14% confidence on Vestes. Out to Party emerges strongest at 43% show confidence, indicating probable closer or place finisher at mile distance. Vestes and All In Okie split equally at 14% each for win, suggesting divided opinion on top choice. High uncertainty with multiple contenders. Potential pass candidate or minimal wagering. If playing, focus on Out to Party in show/place structures with Vestes or All In Okie as alternative wins at overlay odds.
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EXOTIC BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS & VALUE PLAYS
Race 1: Exacta boxes with Expensive Game (4) over Roman Eagle (3) and Quality Style (2). Secondary box: Quality Style over Expensive Game. These combinations offer structural value with moderate consensus support.
Race 2: Gloryibee (2)-Courtinbymoonlight (6) exacta is primary play. Both horses show 38% consensus support. Win play on Gloryibee with place/show coverage. This is a strong race with clear contenders.
Race 3: Defensive trifecta with Three Echoes (6) and Copper Echo (2) in second and third positions under multiple win options. Soft consensus suggests exotic structures over single plays. Consider Solevo-Three Echoes-Copper Echo for trifecta value.
Race 4: Stormforged (2) to win is the strongest single play on the card at 50% confidence. Exacta over Renton (3) and Moneymilitia (5). Include in all Pick sequences.
Race 5: Pass or minimal wagers recommended. If playing, use Janes Girls (3) with place/show flexibility to Mucho Mia (7) and Gospel Fabulous (1). Keep ticket cost low on this uncertain race.
Race 6: Exacta box with Mi Saturday (1) and Devious Dennis (2) over Connors Outlaw (5). Connors Outlaw at 43% show confidence indicates this runner will likely be in the money. Trifecta coverage includes all three in varying combinations.
Race 7: Risk It (4) to win is the second-strongest play on the card at 50% confidence. Exacta with Chivalrous (3) and Hollywood Icon (1). This race shows decisive analyst agreement – solid win play with exacta coverage.
Race 8: Reduced confidence warrants defensive approach. Stretch (2) in place position with Perfect Audible (1) and Canned Heat (7) as win alternatives. Exacta box: Perfect Audible-Stretch with Canned Heat alternative.
Race 9: High uncertainty suggests pass or minimal structures. If playing, Out to Party (2) place backing with Vestes (1) or All In Okie (4) as win options. Avoid heavy ticket investment on this final race with weak consensus.
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MULTI-RACE SEQUENCE STRATEGY
Pick 5 (Races 1-5): Expensive Game / Gloryibee / Solevo (conservative on Race 3) / Stormforged / Janes Girls. This structure provides balanced risk with strong Play 4 anchor. Estimated ticket cost: $18-24 for various combinations.
Late Pick 5 (Races 5-9): Janes Girls / Mi Saturday-Devious Dennis / Risk It / Perfect Audible / Out to Party. This sequence offers softer middle races with stronger Race 7 support.
Pick 4 (Races 6-9): Mi Saturday-Devious Dennis / Risk It / Perfect Audible / Out to Party. Four-race structure focusing on Race 7 dominance with reduced overall ticket cost relative to longer sequences.
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SUMMARY ASSESSMENT
Strongest Plays: Race 4 (Stormforged, 50% confidence) and Race 7 (Risk It, 50% confidence). These are the card’s most decisive decisions with clear analyst consensus.
Secondary Plays: Race 2 (Gloryibee, 38% confidence) and Race 6 (Connors Outlaw in show, 43% confidence).
Uncertain Races: Race 3 (17% Solevo confidence), Race 5 (17% Janes Girls confidence), and Race 9 (14% Vestes confidence). These require defensive or pass strategies.
Value Opportunities: Exacta boxes in Races 1 and 3 offer structural value with moderate support. Race 8 provides overlay potential on Perfect Audible at low win confidence against moderate place consensus on Stretch.
Recommended Sequence: Build ticket strategy around Stormforged win (Race 4) and Risk It win (Race 7) as anchors with supporting plays from Races 2 and 6. Minimize exposure on Races 3, 5, and 9.
