Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)
Win: MO SATURDAYS (3) – 50% confidence
Place: TURQUOISE BLUE (2) – 40% confidence
Show: MY GOOD GOOD BOY (4) – 30% confidence
Alternative: SEND OFF (6) – 20% confidence
Analysts favor the consistency of Mo Saturdays, who appears on every ticket and tops two of them. Turquoise Blue provides the main opposition with strong recent form. The field is split between these two top contenders, with My Good Good Boy appearing as a reliable board hitter.
Race 2 – Claiming (5 Furlongs, Turf)
Win: HAPPY N SMILING (7) – 45% confidence
Place: MISS MOZETTI (1) – 45% confidence
Show: ON WING (6) – 30% confidence
Alternative: AVALING (3) – 20% confidence
Opinion is sharply divided here. Happy N Smiling and Miss Mozetti share the bulk of the win support, creating a distinct two-horse duel in the analyst projections. On Wing consistently appears in the placing positions, suggesting a strong chance to round out the trifecta.
Race 3 – Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)
Win: VIETNAM VICTORY (6) – 65% confidence
Place: FORT HOOD (3) – 40% confidence
Show: BANDERA BLING (2) – 25% confidence
Alternative: BERGHEIM (7) – 25% confidence
Vietnam Victory commands strong respect across the board, topping multiple expert lists despite some dissenting views. Fort Hood is the clear second choice, often predicted to pressure the top selection. The bottom of the ticket is more volatile.
Race 4 – Claiming (5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)
Win: ORE MINE (7) – 60% confidence
Place: FLOTATION STATION (6) – 50% confidence
Show: OUR MOON PIE (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: UNBRIDLED BLING (5) – 20% confidence
Ore Mine is a heavy favorite among the handicapping corps, with Flotation Station serving as the primary challenger. The structure of the picks here is very stable, with the 7-6-3 combination appearing frequently in various permutations.
Race 5 – Allowance (1 1/16 Miles, Turf)
Win: ENTICING SUNSET (4) – 80% confidence
Place: MADDIENLIZZYSHONOR (3) – 40% confidence
Show: PUT A ROCK ON IT (6) – 30% confidence
Alternative: HOLLYWOODBOULEVARD (2) – 20% confidence
This is one of the strongest consensus races on the card. Enticing Sunset is nearly a unanimous selection for the win. Maddienlizzyshonor is widely regarded as the best of the rest, making for a potentially straightforward exacta structure.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)
Win: LEILA MAE (3) – 80% confidence
Place: ANGELS ENVY (5) – 30% confidence
Show: SI GRAYCIE GO (4) – 40% confidence
Alternative: PUSHING THROUGH (8) – 20% confidence
Leila Mae is the dominant force in the analysis for this maiden event, sweeping the top spot for nearly all analysts. While the win position is solid, the minor awards are contested between Angels Envy and Si Graycie Go.
Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt)
Win: COURTINBYMOONLIGHT (2) – 100% confidence
Place: CLEVER CLEMENTINE (5) – 50% confidence
Show: CLEMENTINE GIRL (1) – 30% confidence
Alternative: KNOTTY KITTY (9) – 20% confidence
The definition of a “lock” in the eyes of the analysts. Courtinbymoonlight has secured every single win vote available. Clever Clementine is the consensus choice to chase the favorite home, setting up a very rigid projected finish order.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming (5 Furlongs, Turf)
Win: BANTERRA (9) – 60% confidence
Place: BLING IT TO ME (8) – 45% confidence
Show: TIZAWIZ (3) – 45% confidence
Alternative: FINE FINISH (1) – 20% confidence
Banterra holds the edge in this turf sprint, though Bling It To Me and Tizawiz have enough support to suggest the race isn’t a foregone conclusion. The 9-8-3 trio separates themselves significantly from the rest of the field in expert sentiment.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)
Win: WMA GETAWAY (5) – 60% confidence
Place: MAJD SON (1) – 40% confidence
Show: WMA NASH RAMBLER (2) – 40% confidence
Alternative: HIGHH COUNTRY (8) – 30% confidence
Wma Getaway has emerged as the clear preference over early favorite Majd Son. The data suggests a potential vulnerability in the morning line favorite (Majd Son) as analysts pivot toward the 5 horse. Wma Nash Rambler is a consistent inclusion for the lower rungs.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Analysts point toward an Exacta Box focusing on MO SATURDAYS (3) and TURQUOISE BLUE (2). For deeper tickets, MY GOOD GOOD BOY (4) is a mandatory inclusion in the third slot of Trifectas.
Race 2
This turf sprint presents a split decision. An Exacta Box of MISS MOZETTI (1) and HAPPY N SMILING (7) covers the two main theories. ON WING (6) offers excellent value underneath in Trifectas and Superfectas given the consistent place/show support.
Race 3
VIETNAM VICTORY (6) is a strong key horse here. A straight Exacta of 6 over 3 is the primary play. For Trifectas, keying VIETNAM VICTORY (6) over FORT HOOD (3) and BANDERA BLING (2) maximizes efficiency.
Race 4
The 7-6 Exacta cold (Straight) is highly indicated by the data, with ORE MINE (7) over FLOTATION STATION (6). A Trifecta keying 7 over 6 over 3/5 aligns perfectly with the consensus hierarchy.
Race 5
ENTICING SUNSET (4) is a “Single” candidate for multi-race wagers. In vertical exotics, key 4 over MADDIENLIZZYSHONOR (3) and PUT A ROCK ON IT (6). The confidence level suggests playing the Exacta 4-3 heavily.
Race 6
Another potential Single with LEILA MAE (3). The race for second is open, so a Trifecta wheel of 3 with 4, 5 with ALL protects against the chaos in the minor placings while banking on the heavy favorite.
Race 7
COURTINBYMOONLIGHT (2) is the unanimous anchor. The most logical play is a Cold Exacta: 2 over 5. A Trifecta straight 2-5-1 captures the top three consensus tiers in order.
Race 8
A highly playable Exacta Box involves BANTERRA (9), BLING IT TO ME (8), and TIZAWIZ (3). While Banterra is the top pick, the support for the 8 and 3 is significant enough to warrant coverage in winning positions.
Race 9
WMA GETAWAY (5) offers value as a win candidate over MAJD SON (1). An Exacta 5-1 and 5-2 allows you to capitalize on the analyst shift away from the 1 horse.
Value Play Observations
Overlaid (Value) Opportunities
WMA GETAWAY (5) in Race 9 appears to have significantly more analyst backing than morning line projections might suggest, indicating a strong value play against a vulnerable favorite. HAPPY N SMILING (7) in Race 2 also shows higher win-probability in expert models compared to the general public sentiment, making for a solid value wager.
Underlaid (Vulnerable) Favorites
MAJD SON (1) in Race 9 appears vulnerable; despite being a morning line favorite, the majority of experts have relegated this entry to second or third place. AVALING (3) in Race 2 also shows surprisingly low support among experts despite short odds, suggesting a “fade” strategy.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The card features three distinct pillars where analyst conviction exceeds 80%: Race 5 (ENTICING SUNSET), Race 6 (LEILA MAE), and Race 7 (COURTINBYMOONLIGHT). Race 7 is particularly notable as a “unanimous” event. These three races should form the backbone of any Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 5 tickets. The probability of these heavy favorites faltering is deemed low by the data, suggesting that spreading deep in these legs is an inefficient use of capital.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 2 and Race 1 represent the highest volatility on the card. In Race 2, the tug-of-war between Miss Mozetti and Happy N Smiling suggests that neither is a safe “single.” Bettors should ensure they have coverage for both, or perhaps go even deeper to include On Wing in multi-race sequences. These are the “separator” races where a ticket can gain value if the slightly lesser-backed horse wins.
Multi-Race Sequences
A prime “Pick 3” opportunity exists from Race 5 through Race 7. With three consecutive heavy favorites, a very inexpensive ticket keying 4 / 3 / 2 is a high-probability structure. Alternatively, using these three as singles allows a bettor to spread massively in Race 8, which is a far more contentious turf sprint.
Exotic Value Opportunities
Race 8 and Race 9 offer the best return-on-investment potential for vertical exotics (Trifectas/Superfectas). In Race 8, the top three selections are tightly grouped, but the fourth spot is wide open, creating potential for a high-paying Superfecta if a longshot fills the bottom slot. In Race 9, the potential defeat of the favorite Majd Son by Wma Getaway would trigger an overlaid Exacta payout that the consensus data strongly supports.
Environmental/Track Factors
The turf races (Race 2, 5, 8) require close attention to late scratches or course changes, but the consensus clearly favors established turf form (e.g., Enticing Sunset). On the dirt, the trend favors speed and horses dropping in class. The consistency of the picks suggests a “formful” day where logical contenders run to their odds, minimizing the need for “ALL” buttons in pick sequences.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the middle: Build your day around the Pick 3 sequence of Races 5, 6, and 7 using the heavy favorites.
- Attack the finale: Aggressively bet Wma Getaway in Race 9, using the likely favorite Majd Son only defensively underneath.
- Box the turf sprints: Treat Race 2 and Race 8 as “box” races where exact finish order is difficult to predict among the top 3 contenders.
