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Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming, 1100Y, Dirt
Win: BLUE CHEESE OLIVE (3) – 66% confidence
Place: GOOD LOVIN (9) – 50% confidence
Show: TEDDY’S TRIUMPH (1) – 33% confidence
Alternative: RED LEADER (6) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: Blue Cheese Olive is the clear dominant favorite here, appearing as the top selection on 4 out of 6 expert cards. Good Lovin is a consistent second choice. The divergence appears in the show/alternative spots, suggesting a clear top tier (3 and 9) followed by a scramble for the minor awards.
Race 2: Claiming, 1100Y, Dirt
Win: MARKSALOT (1) – 50% confidence
Place: AMERICAN CHERUB (4) – 33% confidence
Show: POP’S PARTY (3) – 33% confidence
Alternative: CHARLOTTE’S SPIDER (5) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: This is a split field. While Marksalot has half the analysts’ support for the win, American Cherub and Pop’s Party are live contenders with win-support of their own. This race suggests a potential three-horse box opportunity rather than a single confident single.
Race 3: Claiming, 1210Y, Dirt
Win: HELD FOR RANSOM (11) – 33% confidence
Place: VOLS (3) – 33% confidence
Show: RAPID EXPANSION (1) – 16% confidence
Alternative: BEER MONEY (7) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: A contentious race. Held For Ransom and Vols are effectively co-favorites in the eyes of the analysts, swapping Win and Place positions on multiple cards. The outside post for Held For Ransom is a factor analysts seem willing to overlook. Beer Money appears as a “wise guy” pick on one card, offering potential value against the grain.
Race 4: Maiden Claiming, 1430Y, Dirt
Win: GREEN IS THE DADDY (1) – 50% confidence
Place: BYE BYE RUSS (11) – 33% confidence
Show: TORREADO (8) – 16% confidence
Alternative: AMERICAN KNIGHT (2) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: Green Is The Daddy commands the most respect, likely due to the class drop and rail draw. Bye Bye Russ is the main danger, though post 11 at this distance can be tricky. Torreado is an interesting outlier pick from one source that could spoil the exacta.
Race 5: Claiming, 1430Y, Dirt
Win: THIRD STREET (2) – 33% confidence
Place: SEXY DEXY (7) – 33% confidence
Show: DANCE MAN (6) – 16% confidence
Alternative: WEGONAHAVAGOODTIME (11) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: This is one of the most open races on the card. Opinion is fractured between Third Street, Sexy Dexy, and Dance Man. The lack of a clear 50%+ consensus suggests this is a “spread” race in multi-race wagers. Note the divergence on Wegonahavagoodtime, who is a top pick for one analyst but an alternative for others.
Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming, 8F, Dirt
Win: GEORGE WHO (5) – 33% confidence
Place: B BOLD CHARLIE (4) – 33% confidence
Show: HARDY BOY (1) – 16% confidence
Alternative: AMERICAN SOLO (6) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: Another highly competitive event. George Who and B Bold Charlie are neck-and-neck in analyst sentiment. Hardy Boy is a live longshot with win support from one source. The pace scenario here will likely dictate which of these three prevails.
Race 7: Allowance, 1210Y, Dirt
Win: WEST OF ME (3) – 50% confidence
Place: STONEHENGE (1) – 33% confidence
Show: HONOR THE GIANTS (6) – 16% confidence
Alternative: ADIEL (4) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: West Of Me is the solid consensus choice, though Stonehenge on the rail has significant backing. The interesting wrinkle is Honor The Giants, selected to win by one major outlet despite being ignored by others. This creates a clear “A” team (3, 1) and “B” team (6, 4) structure.
Race 8: La Coneja Stakes, 1320Y, Dirt
Win: CORRINA CORRINA (2) – 83% confidence
Place: FIRST AGAIN (5) – 16% confidence
Show: MO MONEY TIME (3) – 16% confidence
Alternative: SOUPED UP WILDCAT (7) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: The lock of the day. Corrina Corrina has near-unanimous support across the board. The only dissenting voice picked First Again, likely hunting for a price. Use Corrina Corrina as a key in all sequences; the race for second is the only real betting puzzle here.
Race 9: Claiming, 1430Y, Dirt
Win: TEN FIGURES (11) – 83% confidence
Place: BLOCKED (7) – 16% confidence
Show: AARON WHO (10) – 16% confidence
Alternative: BODIE GOT GOLD (5) – 16% confidence
Race Notes: A very strong way to close the card. Ten Figures rivals Corrina Corrina for the strongest consensus of the day. Blocked is the only other horse receiving a top-selection nod. The 11-hole is a concern, but analysts clearly believe the horse is much the best.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Exacta Box: BLUE CHEESE OLIVE (3) / GOOD LOVIN (9) Superfecta Key: Key BLUE CHEESE OLIVE (3) over GOOD LOVIN (9), TEDDY’S TRIUMPH (1), and RED LEADER (6).
Race 2
Trifecta Box: MARKSALOT (1) / AMERICAN CHERUB (4) / POP’S PARTY (3) Double: Race 1 Winner BLUE CHEESE OLIVE (3) with Race 2 spread of (1), (3), (4).
Race 3
Pick 3: Race 3 (3, 11) / Race 4 (1, 11) / Race 5 (2, 6, 7). Exacta: HELD FOR RANSOM (11) over VOLS (3) and RAPID EXPANSION (1).
Race 4
Exacta Wheel: GREEN IS THE DADDY (1) over BYE BYE RUSS (11), AMERICAN KNIGHT (2), and TORREADO (8).
Race 5
Trifecta Key: Key THIRD STREET (2) with SEXY DEXY (7), DANCE MAN (6), and WEGONAHAVAGOODTIME (11). Super High Five: Box (2), (4), (6), (7), (11) due to the wide open nature of the field.
Race 6
Exacta Box: GEORGE WHO (5) / B BOLD CHARLIE (4) / HARDY BOY (1).
Race 7
Pick 3: Race 7 (1, 3) / Race 8 (2) / Race 9 (11). Cold Exacta: WEST OF ME (3) over STONEHENGE (1).
Race 8
Trifecta Straight: CORRINA CORRINA (2) over FIRST AGAIN (5) over MO MONEY TIME (3). Daily Double Key: CORRINA CORRINA (2) with TEN FIGURES (11) in Race 9.
Race 9
Superfecta Wheel: TEN FIGURES (11) over BLOCKED (7) and AARON WHO (10) over ALL.
Value Play Observations
Race 3: BEER MONEY (7)
While most eyes are on the battle between Vols and Held For Ransom, Beer Money is a Morning Line 10-1 shot that one major outlet has tabbed to win. If the top two engage in a speed duel, this horse offers significant value underneath or in upset win bets.
Race 5: SEXY DEXY (7)
In a race with muddled consensus, Sexy Dexy (9-2 ML) has managed to secure a top pick status from a high-profile source. The public money may flow toward Third Street (ML 5-1) or Dance Man, potentially leaving Sexy Dexy overlaid relative to its chances.
Race 7: HONOR THE GIANTS (6)
This is a classic “lone wolf” pick. One analyst sees this horse as the winner (ML 8-1) while others barely mention it. In a race dominated by the 1 and 3, this is the type of horse that blows up the tote board if the pace collapses.
Race 4: TORREADO (8)
Torreado is listed as the “Top Tip” by one international source but is completely absent from domestic consensus lists. This divergence often indicates a horse with form that reads better on paper/analytics than it does to the naked eye. Worth including in vertical exotics.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The card is anchored by two massive pillars: Race 8 (Corrina Corrina) and Race 9 (Ten Figures). Both horses command over 80% confidence from the analyst panel. Corrina Corrina is the class of the field in the La Coneja Stakes, and Ten Figures appears to be a standout in the nightcap. Additionally, Race 1 (Blue Cheese Olive) offers a strong 66% consensus to start the day. These three races are the structural “free squares” for horizontal wagers (Pick 3/4/5), allowing bettors to spread their capital in the more volatile middle legs.
Split-Opinion Races
The middle of the card—specifically Race 5 and Race 6—presents the highest volatility. In Race 5, the “Win” vote is split three ways between Third Street, Sexy Dexy, and Dance Man, with even more horses appearing in the “Place” and “Show” slots. Similarly, Race 6 sees a deadlock between George Who and B Bold Charlie. These are the races where “singling” is dangerous. The strategy here should be to spread deep in Pick N sequences or, if playing vertically (Exacta/Trifecta), to box the top three contenders rather than keying a single horse.
Multi-Race Sequences
A highly attractive “Late Pick 3” sequence exists from Race 7 through Race 9.
- Leg 1 (Race 7): Narrow the field to the two consensus leaders, West Of Me (3) and Stonehenge (1).
- Leg 2 (Race 8): Single Corrina Corrina (2).
- Leg 3 (Race 9): Single Ten Figures (11). This structure creates a very affordable ticket with a high probability of success, relying on the two heavy favorites to deliver. For a Late Pick 4 starting in Race 6, you would need to buy significant coverage in the first leg (using 1, 4, 5, 6) before narrowing down.
Exotic Value Opportunities
Race 4 offers a prime opportunity for value in the Superfecta. While Green Is The Daddy (1) is the favorite, the presence of Torreado (8) as a “Top Tip” from a contrarian source suggests the potential for a price horse to crash the board. A Superfecta Key of 1 over 8, 11, and 2 could pay significantly better than the odds suggest if the 8 hits the board. Similarly, in Race 7, including Honor The Giants (6) in second or third position on trifecta tickets could spike the payout if the favorite falters.
Environmental/Track Factors
The dirt surface at 1100Y and 1210Y (sprint distances) often favors horses with tactical speed who can sit just off the lead. The consensus picks today heavily favor horses with this profile (Blue Cheese Olive, West Of Me). However, be wary of the 1430Y distance (Race 4, 5, 9); the unique configuration at Sunland for this distance can sometimes trap horses drawn outside (like Ten Figures in post 11). While Ten Figures is a strong consensus pick, the post position is a legitimate “environmental” risk that justifies a small backup saver wager on Blocked (7) or Aaron Who (10).
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the Late Pick 3: Use the Corrina Corrina / Ten Figures double to drive your late-day profitability.
- Spread in Race 5: Do not trust a single pick in Race 5; the analysts are too divided. Use at least three horses.
- Watch the Tote in Race 7: If Honor The Giants (6) takes money, respect the contrarian signal; if he drifts up, the analyst may have been over-reaching.
