Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Note: Sometimes, a pick may appear twice; in such cases, we expect the horse to finish in one of the two predicted positions.
Race 1 – Allowance – 295Y – Dirt – $14,800
Win: 6 Av Tornadoe Warning (67% confidence)🥈
Place: 1 Goodbye Tyme (44% confidence)
Show: 4 Tell Me Im Yours (33% confidence)
Alternative: 2 Tell America (33% confidence)
The sprint distance favors speed from the gate, and Av Tornadoe Warning has shown the most consistent recent form at this track. Goodbye Tyme returns from a lengthy layoff but broke maiden impressively last out. Tell Me Im Yours also won last start to break maiden and should be in the mix. Tell America has tactical speed but may need to improve off last effort.
Race 2 – Maiden – 328Y – Dirt
Win: 8 I Am The Queen B (56% confidence)
Place: 10 Koli (56% confidence)🥇
Show: 3 Kvn Negro To Blanco (22% confidence)🥈
Alternative: 6 Jess Rideaway (22% confidence)🥉
I Am The Queen B narrowly missed last start and looks ready to break through. Koli draws strong support despite a sixth-place finish last out. This appears to be a weak maiden field with several first-time starters, creating opportunities for upset potential. Watch the board for any late money moves.
Race 3 – Claiming – 1433Y – Dirt
Win: 2 Central Park (89% confidence)🥉
Place: 4 Always On Cay (44% confidence)🥈
Show: 6 Godsend (56% confidence)
Alternative: 5 K P Kwest (22% confidence)🥇
Central Park receives near-unanimous support after winning last start. This runner has proven form at this track and should handle the distance. Always On Cay disappointed as favorite last out but drops in class. Godsend has strong Turf Paradise form and returns from a freshening. The distance suits closers who can make one run.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming – 1214Y – Dirt – $10,000
Win: 2 Chief Renegade (78% confidence)🥈
Place: 1 Towhee (89% confidence)
Show: 3 Reach Higher (44% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 8 Come Home (11% confidence)
Chief Renegade narrowly missed last start and drops significantly in class. Towhee draws an ideal post position and should be prominent throughout. The lack of field depth creates value opportunities in exacta and trifecta wagers using the top three selections. Reach Higher returns from Emerald Downs and could round out the trifecta.
Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 8F – Turf – $18,000 WIN
Win: 1 Platinum Diva (67% confidence)🥇
Place: 5 Derrygoolin (67% confidence)
Show: 4 Rollin Blackout (44% confidence)
Alternative: 2 Island Jive (11% confidence)🥈
Platinum Diva returns from a layoff with solid recent form and switches to turf. Derrygoolin won impressively last start and trainer has strong record with returning runners. The turf distance favors horses with stamina and tactical speed. Rollin Blackout has two wins from seven starts this campaign and should factor. The surface switch adds complexity to handicapping this field.
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming – 1105Y – Dirt – $8,500
Win: 2 Mendelssohns Music (67% confidence)🥉
Place: 5 Street Gun (56% confidence)
Show: 9 Tough As An Ox (78% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 1 Tequilalittletime (11% confidence)
Mendelssohns Music disappointed as favorite last out but drops in class considerably. Street Gun returns from lengthy layoff with a third-place finish in last start. Tough As An Ox receives strong show support and returns to lower-level competition. This weak maiden field creates uncertainty, suggesting wider exotic wagering strategies may be profitable.
Race 7 – Starter Allowance – 1214Y – Dirt – $12,000
Win: 5 Loveaboveandbeyond (100% confidence)🥈
Place: 3 Sorority Party (56% confidence)Show: 1 Olivia’s Choice (33% confidence)Alternative: 2 Unified A. P. (11% confidence)🥇
Loveaboveandbeyond receives unanimous support after recent winning form and heavy 1-1 morning line odds. This runner appears to be a standout in this field. Sorority Party finished second last start and should press the pace. Olivia’s Choice and Lula Bella both have winning form and could compete for minor placings. The dominant favorite suggests single and key betting strategies.
Race 8 – Maiden Optional Claiming – 1651Y – Turf
Win: 6 Ride Elbow Ranch (44% confidence)
Place: 4 Without A Pout (67% confidence)
Show: 3 Caitlin Fever (22% confidence)🥇Alternative: 7 Naturally Blonde (33% confidence)
The expert picks are divided in this turf maiden, creating betting value. Without A Pout drops significantly in class after competing at Santa Anita. Ride Elbow Ranch has shown consistency with multiple placings but seeks first career win. The longer turf distance favors horses with closing kicks. This race appears wide open with several legitimate contenders making it ideal for multi-horse exotic wagers.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Race 1: Consider exacta box using 6 Av Tornadoe Warning, 1 Goodbye Tyme, and 4 Tell Me Im Yours. The short sprint distance creates unpredictability. A trifecta wheel with 6 on top over 1, 4, 2 provides value.
Race 3: Central Park appears to be a single in multi-race wagers. Use 2 Central Park in exacta and trifecta combinations with 4, 6, and 5 underneath for strong potential returns.
Race 4: The weak maiden field suggests using Chief Renegade and Towhee in reverse exactas and boxing the top three in trifectas. Consider a Pick 3 starting here with singles in Races 5 and 7.
Race 5: The competitive turf race warrants exacta boxes using 1 Platinum Diva, 5 Derrygoolin, and 4 Rollin Blackout. Consider trifecta parts with 2 Island Jive for added value.
Race 7: Loveaboveandbeyond is the strongest single of the card. Key this runner on top in exactas and trifectas with 3, 1, 7, and 2 in second and third positions. Use as anchor leg in Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers.
Race 8: The divided opinions create value opportunities. Consider exacta boxes using 4, 6, 7, and 3. A trifecta wheel with 4 Without A Pout on top over 6, 3, 7, 2 offers solid potential given the class drop.
Multi-Race Wagers: Pick 3 covering Races 3-4-5 using 2 / 2,1 / 1,5 provides strong value. Late Pick 4 covering Races 5-6-7-8 with 1,5 / 2,5,9 / 5 / 4,6 offers tournament-level upside with manageable cost.
Value Plays: Race 2 presents overlay potential if Koli or Kvn Negro To Blanco receive limited public support. Race 6 lacks a standout, making 9 Tough As An Ox attractive at projected odds. Race 8 shows Without A Pout as potential value given strong connections dropping in class.
