Race 1 Allowance, $15,600, Open 3 yo’s & up, 300Y, Dirt WIN
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Win: 6 Say Somthing – 70% confidence🥇
Place: 3 Corazon Stoli – 45% confidence
Show: 5 Kj Flashy Girl – 45% confidence🥈
Alternative: 1 Tubac Royale – 30% confidence
This sprint features Say Somthing returning from a six-week layoff after finishing second at Los Alamitos. The horse has strong support across handicappers and faces softer competition at Turf Paradise. Corazon Stoli returns from a 22-week break but showed mid-pack form at Ruidoso Downs last out. Kj Flashy Girl drops in class after finishing three lengths back at Ruidoso when fresh. Watch for early speed battles in this short quarter horse sprint.
Race 2 – Wayne Brasher Memorial Stakes, 295Y, Dirt, 2:45 PM WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 1 Sweet Fire Wes – 65% confidence
Place: 5 Wicked Cowgirl Smart – 40% confidence🥇
Show: 4 Basking – 40% confidence🥉
Alternative: 9 Royal Post – 15% confidence🥈
Sweet Fire Wes enters off two consecutive wins at Turf Paradise and draws strong consensus support despite the 33-week layoff. Wicked Cowgirl Smart returns as a track specialist with five wins at Turf Paradise but faces a 29-week absence. Basking finished just a half-length back when resuming at Los Alamitos and represents a live threat. The stakes designation elevates the competition level in this quarter horse sprint.
Race 3 – Trial, 1323Y, Dirt, 3:15 PM
Win: 1 Rock’n Awesome – 60% confidence
Place: 2 Cactus League – 60% confidence🥈
Show: 5 Hey Pardner – 35% confidence🥇
Alternative: 4 Ez Racer – 35% confidence
This two-year-old trial features limited form. Rock’n Awesome finished fourth in debut at Prairie Meadows but drops significantly in class. Cactus League makes debut and draws nearly equal consensus support. Hey Pardner represents another first-time starter with training patterns suggesting readiness. Form analysis proves difficult with multiple first-time starters and limited racing experience across the field.
Race 4 – Claiming, 1323Y, Dirt, 3:44 PM, $9,500 Purse BOXED EXACTA
Win: 3 Minedandrefined – 70% confidence🥈
Place: 5 Classic American – 50% confidence🥇
Show: 6 Lotsa Steel – 30% confidence
Alternative: 1 My Little Lady – 30% confidence🥉
Minedandrefined draws overwhelming support after finishing second when fresh at Canterbury Park following a nine-week break. Classic American returns from a 10-week layoff but was beaten badly last out at Emerald Downs. Lotsa Steel emerges as a value alternative in the consensus. The claiming level and fillies and mares restriction narrows the competitive field.
Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 8F, Turf, 4:13 PM, $18,000 Purse
Win: 7 Zoffarelli – 50% confidence🥈
Place: 2 The Black Strat – 60% confidence🥇
Show: 8 Afjan – 50% confidence
Alternative: 3 Fireman Dan – 20% confidence🥉
The Black Strat shows the highest place confidence despite Zoffarelli drawing more win support. The Black Strat returns from a 13-week break with seven previous Turf Paradise wins, suggesting strong course familiarity. Zoffarelli failed to threaten last out at Del Mar and faces a distance increase. Afjan returns from nine weeks off after winning last start at Canterbury Park. The turf surface and one-mile distance favor horses with tactical speed and stretch-running ability.
Race 6 – Trial, 1323Y, Dirt, 4:42 PM, $17,000 Purse WIN
Win: 4 Go Sparky – 75% confidence🥇
Place: 7 Three P’s – 40% confidence
Show: 2 Secret Insanity – 35% confidence
Alternative: 6 Pi Time – 10% confidence🥈
Go Sparky dominates the consensus after winning in debut at Canterbury Park and draws the highest confidence rating of any selection across the card. Three P’s returns from 28 weeks off after finishing three-quarters of a length back at Turf Paradise last start. Secret Insanity makes debut and represents the Eikleberry barn. The two-year-old trial format creates uncertainty, but Go Sparky’s debut win provides tangible form advantage.
Race 7 – Maiden Claiming, 1105Y, Dirt, 5:11 PM, $8,500 Purse BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: 6 Bizzy Lizzy – 30% confidence
Place: 9 Liberty Cap – 30% confidence🥈
Show: 10 Top Review – 30% confidence🥇
Alternative: 5 Brascia’s Art – 20% confidence🥉
The most contentious race on the card features three horses drawing equal win confidence. Bizzy Lizzy and Liberty Cap both draw support from multiple handicappers. Top Review has placed twice in four recent starts but lacks a win. The maiden claiming condition and fillies and mares restriction creates a competitive but evenly matched field. Liberty Cap drops in class and could improve stepping down.
Race 8 – Claiming, 8F, Turf, 5:40 PM, $11,500 Purse
Win: 2 Sanderson – 70% confidence
Place: 4 Pure Cane Sugar – 30% confidence
Show: 5 Run Bryce Run – 25% confidence
Alternative: 8 Ario – 20% confidence🥇
Sanderson returns from nine weeks off after finishing 10 lengths back at Belmont when fresh but drops significantly in class. The Diodoro trainee draws strong consensus support despite the poor last effort. Pure Cane Sugar and Run Bryce Run provide secondary options. The turf distance of one mile and claiming level suggest tactical pace and class dropping could prove decisive factors.
Recommended Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4): $36 Ticket
3 x 3 x 3 x 3 combination
Race 1: 6, 3, 5
Race 2: 1, 5, 4
Race 3: 1, 2, 5
Race 4: 3, 5, 6
The early sequence features manageable fields with clear consensus favorites, making this Pick 4 attractive for coverage at reasonable cost.
Grand Canyon Pick 6 (Races 3-8): $162 Ticket
Race 3: 1, 2, 5 (3 horses)
Race 4: 3, 5, 6 (3 horses)
Race 5: 7, 2, 8 (3 horses)
Race 6: 4, 7 (2 horses – single strongest consensus)
Race 7: 6, 9, 10, 5 (4 horses – spread due to uncertainty)
Race 8: 2 (1 horse – strongest late consensus)
Race 6 features the strongest consensus of the card with Go Sparky, allowing a single in the Pick 6 structure. Race 7 proves the most contentious and requires spreading.
1 Sweet Fire Wes / 5 Wicked Cowgirl Smart / 4 Basking
These three horses draw the strongest consensus support in the Stakes race. The box format captures any finishing order among the top contenders.
Race 4 Trifecta: $12
3 Minedandrefined with 5, 6, 1 with 5, 6, 1
Minedandrefined dominates the consensus and provides a single on top. Classic American and Lotsa Steel battle for place and show positions.
Race 6 Win Bet Value: $20 to Win on #4 Go Sparky
The highest consensus confidence across the entire card at 75 percent suggests Go Sparky offers the most solid single-race investment despite likely short odds.
Race 7 Trifecta Box: $24
6 Bizzy Lizzy / 9 Liberty Cap / 10 Top Review / 5 Brascia’s Art
The most contentious race requires full coverage of the four strongest consensus selections in any finishing order.
Late Pick 3 (Races 6-8): $24 Ticket
Race 6: 4, 7 (2 horses)
Race 7: 6, 9, 10, 5 (4 horses)
Race 8: 2, 4, 5 (3 horses)
Using the strong Race 6 consensus as an anchor while spreading through the uncertain Race 7 and consolidating around Sanderson in Race 8 creates value structure.
Superfecta Value Play – Race 5: $12
7 Zoffarelli / 2 The Black Strat / 8 Afjan, 3 Fireman Dan / 8 Afjan, 3 Fireman Dan, 5 I’m Noble
The turf race features competitive horses with strong handicapping support. The superfecta structure captures value if the consensus holds through fourth position.
Race 1 Exacta Wheel: $10
6 Say Somthing with 3, 5, 1, 4
Wheel the strongest consensus selection over secondary choices for coverage at manageable cost in the opening sprint.
The Pick Pony analysis identifies Race 6 with Go Sparky as the strongest play of the day, while Race 7 presents the most challenging handicapping scenario requiring defensive betting approaches. The Grand Canyon Pick 6 structure offers the best exotic value by singling Go Sparky in Race 6 and Sanderson in Race 8 while spreading through the contentious Race 7. Track conditions at 66-68 degrees Fahrenheit favor early speed on the dirt surface while the turf course should provide fair conditions for closers.
