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Race 1 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $100,000 WIN
Win: #8 Hogie The Player (87% confidence)🥇
Place: #2 Consolidated (62% confidence)
Show: #9 Dismiss (37% confidence)🥉
Alternative: #4 Shallus (37% confidence)
Notes: There is near-unanimous agreement on the top selection, who narrowly missed last time out and appears poised to break through. One analyst notes this runner should run fitter for past attempts. The main danger is seen as the horse returning from a long spell who was in the money at Gulfstream.
Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $102,000 WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA
Win: #1 Believe In Magic (75% confidence)🥇
Place: #10 Cadenza (12% confidence)🥉
Show: #3 Music Burst (37% confidence)🥈Alternative: #5 Bo Zocka (37% confidence)
Notes: Strong consensus has formed around the rail horse, cited for strong form and a good second in stakes company recently. Another analyst points to the runner returning from a 16-week spell as a standout threat for exotics. The field is considered competitive with several last-start winners.
Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/4 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $104,000 WIN
Win: #2 Golden Sunshine (75% confidence)🥇
Place: #7 Love Her Lots (25% confidence)
Show: #10 Tiz Her Money (50% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Disco Rules (37% confidence)
Notes: The favorite is widely expected to be tough to beat following two wins from 13 attempts this campaign. Analysts suggest the main threats are a consistent performer from a strong camp and a runner who won fresh at Churchill Downs.
Race 4 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $100,000 BOXED EXACTA
Win: #2 Beach Ballad (66% confidence)🥈
Place: #10 Petronella (33% confidence)🥇
Show: #4 Mother Green (66% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Malanya (16% confidence)
Notes: Top selections favor the horse with strong placed form in higher class races. Analysts describe this as a toss-up between the top two, with the second choice noted for running four lengths back from the winner at Churchill when fresh.
Race 5 Allowance, 1 Mile, Synthetic, Purse $103,000
Win: #9 Siesta Key (42% confidence)
Place: #10 Goes The Clown (28% confidence)Show: #13 Lat Long (28% confidence)Alternative: #6 Big To Do (28% confidence)
Notes: Opinions are split here, though the horse resuming from a 15-week spell gets the slight edge. Another analyst strongly favors the runner with three wins in seven attempts this campaign. The race is seen as having several viable contenders, including a horse who has won twice at this track previously.
Race 6 My Charmer S. Presented By Claiborne Farm, 1 Mile, Synthetic, Purse $250,000 WIN
Win: #2 Caitlinhergrtness (75% confidence)🥇
Place: #3 Literate (25% confidence)🥉
Show: #9 She’s Lookin Lucky (25% confidence)Alternative: #6 Landed (25% confidence)
Notes: The heavy favorite is widely supported after a close second in a tougher race. However, one analyst advises taking a swing against the favorite with a 5YO mare who may be an overlay and has tactical speed. The favorite’s success has primarily been at Woodbine, which plays differently than Turfway.
Race 7 Holiday Inaugural S. Presented By Claiborne Farm, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $250,000
Win: #2 Ellen Jay (50% confidence)
Place: #3 Pondering (33% confidence)🥈
Show: #7 Civetta (16% confidence)
Alternative: #10 Mink’s Palace (16% confidence)🥇
Notes: A competitive stakes race where the consensus leans toward the runner who ran second when last second-up. A strong alternative is the horse coming off a Grade 3 success. Analysts also point to a runner who won impressively at Churchill Downs as a real danger.
Race 8 Prairie Bayou Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $250,000 WIN
Win: #12 Encino (37% confidence)🥇Place: #5 Dresden Row (25% confidence)Show: #3 Cameo Performance (25% confidence)🥉Alternative: #7 Quatrocento (12% confidence)
Notes: This is the most contested race of the card. While the morning line favorite has support to bounce back, one analyst designates a mid-priced runner as their best bet of the evening, expecting them to find a perfect spot just off the pace. The pace scenario is expected to be honest.
Race 9 Holiday Cheer Stakes, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $250,000
Win: #3 Howard Wolowitz (62% confidence)🥈Place: #7 Roll On Big Joe (25% confidence)Show: #4 Out On Bail (12% confidence)Alternative: #8 Nobals (25% confidence)
Notes: The consensus strong choice is the horse returning from a spell who ran second in a higher grade last time. Several analysts respect the runner looking for a hat trick after wins at Oaklawn and Churchill.
Race 10 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $100,000
Win: #5 Empire West (50% confidence)🥉
Place: #4 Thailand (12% confidence)🥇
Show: #3 Beale Street Boy (25% confidence)
Alternative: #7 Maginnesontap (25% confidence)🥈
Notes: Analysts favor the horse who placed second at Churchill Downs in their only start. However, one analyst recommends a “big swing” on a longshot (listed elsewhere as #8) who may improve off their first three efforts. The race features several juveniles from big-name barns returning to the races.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 2 Trifecta Key
Key: #1 Believe In Magic
With: #10 Cadenza, #3 Music Burst, #5 Bo Zocka
Analysis: Multiple analysts identify #1 as a standout. Fan Odds explicitly calls this race a “stand-out trifecta” with the top three selections (#10, #3, #1).
Race 6 Exacta / Alternative Value
Play: #9 She’s Lookin Lucky OVER #2 Caitlinhergrtness
Analysis: While #2 is the consensus winner, one analyst strongly advises using #9 as a value play to upset or complete the exacta, citing the favorite’s potential vulnerability on this specific surface.
Race 8 Boxed Exacta / Trifecta
Horses: #12 Encino, #5 Dresden Row, #3 Cameo Performance
Analysis: With a split consensus and a “Best Bet” designation on #5 Dresden Row from one expert against the favorite #12 Encino, boxing these top three provides coverage in a race with predicted honest pace.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: #4 Shallus (12-1)
Multiple analysts include this horse in their top considerations, noting six placings from 13 runs and the need for a break.
Race 5: #6 Big To Do (5-1)
Selected to win by one major outlet despite the consensus leaning elsewhere, offering potential value in a split field.
Race 6: #9 She’s Lookin Lucky (8-1)
Identified by an analyst as a “swing against” the heavy favorite, with tactical speed and a good price to gamble on.
Race 10: #8 Helpful Howie (15-1)
Highlighted by an analyst as a “bigger swing” longshot who should get a cleaner trip than his last outing and offers significant value to close the card.
Consensus Estimated Finish Order Predictions look good. Reformat the race heading to be H1 size font2 steps completed
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- Each race number, type, distance, surface, and purse in H1 format
- Win, Place, Show, and Alternative picks with confidence percentages
- Concise analyst notes for each race
The file has been saved and is ready for reference. All 10 races are properly formatted with prominent H1 headings as requested.
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Consensus Estimated Finish Order Predictions
Race 1 Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $100,000
Win: #8 Hogie The Player (87% confidence)
Place: #2 Consolidated (62% confidence)
Show: #9 Dismiss (37% confidence)
Alternative: #4 Shallus (37% confidence)
Notes: There is near-unanimous agreement on the top selection, who narrowly missed last time out and appears poised to break through. One analyst notes this runner should run fitter for past attempts. The main danger is seen as the horse returning from a long spell who was in the money at Gulfstream.
Race 2 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $102,000
Win: #1 Believe In Magic (75% confidence)
Place: #10 Cadenza (12% confidence)
Show: #3 Music Burst (37% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Bo Zocka (37% confidence)
Notes: Strong consensus has formed around the rail horse, cited for strong form and a good second in stakes company recently. Another analyst points to the runner returning from a 16-week spell as a standout threat for exotics. The field is considered competitive with several last-start winners.
Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/4 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $104,000
Win: #2 Golden Sunshine (75% confidence)
Place: #7 Love Her Lots (25% confidence)
Show: #10 Tiz Her Money (50% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Disco Rules (37% confidence)
Notes: The favorite is widely expected to be tough to beat following two wins from 13 attempts this campaign. Analysts suggest the main threats are a consistent performer from a strong camp and a runner who won fresh at Churchill Downs.
Race 4 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $100,000
Win: #2 Beach Ballad (66% confidence)
Place: #10 Petronella (33% confidence)
Show: #4 Mother Green (66% confidence)
Alternative: #5 Malanya (16% confidence)
Notes: Top selections favor the horse with strong placed form in higher class races. Analysts describe this as a toss-up between the top two, with the second choice noted for running four lengths back from the winner at Churchill when fresh.
Race 5 Allowance, 1 Mile, Synthetic, Purse $103,000
Win: #9 Siesta Key (42% confidence)
Place: #10 Goes The Clown (28% confidence)
Show: #13 Lat Long (28% confidence)
Alternative: #6 Big To Do (28% confidence)
Notes: Opinions are split here, though the horse resuming from a 15-week spell gets the slight edge. Another analyst strongly favors the runner with three wins in seven attempts this campaign. The race is seen as having several viable contenders, including a horse who has won twice at this track previously.
Race 6 My Charmer S. Presented By Claiborne Farm, 1 Mile, Synthetic, Purse $250,000
Win: #2 Caitlinhergrtness (75% confidence)
Place: #3 Literate (25% confidence)
Show: #9 She’s Lookin Lucky (25% confidence)
Alternative: #6 Landed (25% confidence)
Notes: The heavy favorite is widely supported after a close second in a tougher race. However, one analyst advises taking a swing against the favorite with a 5YO mare who may be an overlay and has tactical speed. The favorite’s success has primarily been at Woodbine, which plays differently than Turfway.
Race 7 Holiday Inaugural S. Presented By Claiborne Farm, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $250,000
Win: #2 Ellen Jay (50% confidence)
Place: #3 Pondering (33% confidence)
Show: #7 Civetta (16% confidence)
Alternative: #10 Mink’s Palace (16% confidence)
Notes: A competitive stakes race where the consensus leans toward the runner who ran second when last second-up. A strong alternative is the horse coming off a Grade 3 success. Analysts also point to a runner who won impressively at Churchill Downs as a real danger.
Race 8 Prairie Bayou Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $250,000
Win: #12 Encino (37% confidence)
Place: #5 Dresden Row (25% confidence)
Show: #3 Cameo Performance (25% confidence)
Alternative: #7 Quatrocento (12% confidence)
Notes: This is the most contested race of the card. While the morning line favorite has support to bounce back, one analyst designates a mid-priced runner as their best bet of the evening, expecting them to find a perfect spot just off the pace. The pace scenario is expected to be honest.
Race 9 Holiday Cheer Stakes, 6 Furlongs, Synthetic, Purse $250,000
Win: #3 Howard Wolowitz (62% confidence)
Place: #7 Roll On Big Joe (25% confidence)
Show: #4 Out On Bail (12% confidence)
Alternative: #8 Nobals (25% confidence)
Notes: The consensus strong choice is the horse returning from a spell who ran second in a higher grade last time. Several analysts respect the runner looking for a hat trick after wins at Oaklawn and Churchill.
Race 10 Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles, Synthetic, Purse $100,000
Win: #5 Empire West (50% confidence)
Place: #4 Thailand (12% confidence)
Show: #3 Beale Street Boy (25% confidence)
Alternative: #7 Maginnesontap (25% confidence)
Notes: Analysts favor the horse who placed second at Churchill Downs in their only start. However, one analyst recommends a “big swing” on a longshot (listed elsewhere as #8) who may improve off their first three efforts. The race features several juveniles from big-name barns returning to the races.
