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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming – 1 mile – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 39,600
Win: 3 Noble Court (Noble Court) – 71 percent confidence
Place: 9 Burden Of Dreams (Burden Of Dreams) – 57 percent confidence
Show: 1 Chuck’s Law (Chuck’s Law) – 43 percent confidence
Alternative: 2 Survivin’onaprayer (Survivin’onaprayer) – 29 percent confidence
Notes: Pick Pony analysts see Noble Court as the key runner off strong prior mile form and broad support from multiple services. Burden Of Dreams projects as the main stalking danger with upside stretching back to Tapeta. Deeper tickets should respect Chuck’s Law for forward trip value and Survivin’onaprayer as a late-running underneath piece in a race that may not yield a strong long-term form line.
Race 2 – Claiming – 1 1/16 miles – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 30,800
Win: 6 Cora’s Legacy (Cora’s Legacy) – 80 percent confidence
Place: 3 I Made It (I Made It) – 60 percent confidence
Show: 4 Solrun (Solrun) – 60 percent confidence
Alternative: 7 Rose’s Wish (Rose’s Wish) – 40 percent confidence
Notes: Cora’s Legacy carries clear consensus as the most reliable mare with consistent form and a strong fit at the trip. I Made It and Solrun give this race a solid mid-priced core, both capable of grinding on late if the pace collapses. Rose’s Wish is treated as an improving type who can spice up exotics if she transitions to Tapeta smoothly.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming – 6 furlongs – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 37,200
Win: 2 Lolly Poppin (Lolly Poppin) – 71 percent confidence
Place: 3 Lel Ditty (Lel Ditty) – 71 percent confidence
Show: 6 Union Empress (Union Empress) – 29 percent confidence
Alternative: 7 Littleredstilleto (Littleredstilleto) – 29 percent confidence
Notes: This low-level maiden is viewed as a two-horse core between Lolly Poppin and Lel Ditty, with analysts split but strongly concentrated on those two. Union Empress and Littleredstilleto are treated as fringe board players rather than win threats. Given the lack of proven finishers, Pick Pony analysts expect a chaotic underneath outcome and recommend caution anchoring multi-race wagers too heavily here.
Race 4 – Claiming – 1 1/8 miles – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 38,400
Win: 2 Karlwithanarl (Karlwithanarl) – 67 percent confidence
Place: 3 Big Paper (Big Paper) – 50 percent confidence
Show: 5 Tres Soles (Tres Soles) – 50 percent confidence
Alternative: 6 Righthere Rightnow (Righthere Rightnow) – 50 percent confidence
Notes: Karlwithanarl earns top billing on consistency and multiple endorsements as the most trustworthy router in the field. Big Paper, Tres Soles, and Righthere Rightnow form a tightly packed second tier, suggesting a high-variance trifecta where trip will matter more than raw class. Pick Pony analysts expect a genuinely run route that rewards stamina and recommend building exotics around Karlwithanarl while spreading underneath.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 mile – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 100,000
Win: 8 Drop Shot (Drop Shot) – 50 percent confidence
Place: 9 Question Answered (Question Answered) – 50 percent confidence
Show: 10 Prime Suspect (Prime Suspect) – 33 percent confidence
Alternative: 12 Boss’ Deed (Boss’ Deed) – 33 percent confidence
Notes: Analysts split between Drop Shot and Question Answered as the likeliest winners, both with strong recent mile efforts and positive progression. Prime Suspect and Boss’ Deed have enough backing to be viewed as genuine win threats rather than mere underneath fillers. With several lightly raced types and a large purse, Pick Pony analysts see this as a key race where watching the tote for late money could reveal the true standout.
Race 6 – Claiming – 6 1/2 furlongs – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 42,300
Win: 4 Explosively (Explosively) – 60 percent confidence
Place: 5 One Timer (One Timer) – 60 percent confidence
Show: 6 Itsinmyblood (Itsinmyblood) – 60 percent confidence
Alternative: 2 Golddiggendevil (Golddiggendevil) – 40 percent confidence
Notes: Pick Pony analysts view this as a three-headed race among Explosively, One Timer, and Itsinmyblood, with all three endorsed at similar strength. Golddiggendevil shows up enough to be considered a viable upset player, particularly if the leaders overdo it early. The all-weather sprint profile here favors tactical speed, so inside-positioned pace types from this consensus group may hold a subtle edge.
Race 7 – Allowance – 6 1/2 furlongs – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 101,000
Win: 3 Master Mule (Master Mule) – 67 percent confidence
Place: 4 My Own (My Own) – 50 percent confidence
Show: 1 Sock It To Me (Sock It To Me) – 33 percent confidence
Alternative: 11 G T Five Hundred (G T Five Hundred) – 33 percent confidence
Notes: Despite some marquee names, the consensus tilts to Master Mule as the most dependable allowance performer at this trip. My Own and Sock It To Me attract quiet but meaningful support as mid-priced alternatives with solid synthetic form. G T Five Hundred, while highly regarded by a couple of analysts, lands fourth in overall backing and may offer value if the public overreacts to a single strong endorsement.
Race 8 – Claiming – 1 mile – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 34,500
Win: 5 Jus Too Fly (Jus Too Fly) – 67 percent confidence
Place: 2 Liberty Bay (Liberty Bay) – 50 percent confidence
Show: 1 Vino Caldo (Vino Caldo) – 33 percent confidence
Alternative: 10 Patronage (Patronage) – 33 percent confidence
Notes: Jus Too Fly emerges as the clear consensus choice, with a versatile running style that fits both a moderate or contested pace. Liberty Bay retains strong support as a last-out maiden winner stepping into claiming company with upside on Tapeta. Vino Caldo and Patronage appear as trip-dependent options who could outrun their consensus ranking if the pace scenario tilts in their favor.
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 1 mile – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 102,000
Win: 3 Jupiter (Jupiter) – 83 percent confidence
Place: 4 Jutland (Jutland) – 83 percent confidence
Show: 11 Forum (Forum) – 67 percent confidence
Alternative: 1 Mr Randy (Mr Randy) – 50 percent confidence
Notes: This is one of the strongest consensus races of the card, with Jupiter and Jutland essentially co-headliners and Forum close behind. Mr Randy picks up enough support to be treated as a legitimate fourth choice capable of upsetting the top tier if the race falls apart late. Pick Pony analysts expect a high-quality mile with multiple future winners emerging from the group, making this a key leg for horizontal wagers.
Race 10 – Maiden Claiming – 6 1/2 furlongs – All Weather (Tapeta) – approximate purse 30,800
Win: 6 British Empress (British Empress) – 86 percent confidence
Place: 3 Dodecahedron (Dodecahedron) – 71 percent confidence
Show: 11 Yammy Yammy Bella (Yammy Yammy Bella) – 43 percent confidence
Alternative: 4 A Long Winters Nap (A Long Winters Nap) – 43 percent confidence
Notes: British Empress is the strongest single on the card by consensus, with clear majority support and multiple top-rank endorsements. Dodecahedron is viewed as the main upset candidate and a must-use companion in any serious exotic structure. Yammy Yammy Bella and A Long Winters Nap round out a fairly tight second tier, suggesting that the vertical exotics can be narrowed to this consensus quartet without reaching deep.
Exotic Bets and Value Plays (Pick Pony Analysts)
Race 1: Pick Pony analysts would structure exactas and trifectas around Noble Court over Burden Of Dreams and Chuck’s Law, with Survivin’onaprayer and Spirit Of A Walkon as value underneath pieces. Multi-race sequences can lean on Noble Court but should still use Burden Of Dreams as a secondary win anchor given the strong consensus support.
Race 2: Cora’s Legacy profiles as a strong single in horizontal wagers given the high confidence level and multiple sources making her the key. Exactas using Cora’s Legacy over I Made It and Solrun, with Rose’s Wish in third and fourth, capture most of the consensus without over-spreading.
Race 3: With Lolly Poppin and Lel Ditty essentially co-top choices, Pick Pony analysts favor a two-deep approach in multi-race bets while spreading heavily underneath in trifectas and superfectas. Using Union Empress, Littleredstilleto, and one or two longer-priced closers under the consensus pair can create good value in verticals.
Race 4: Karlwithanarl serves as the primary key in exactas and daily doubles, but the depth of support for Big Paper, Tres Soles, and Righthere Rightnow argues for boxing those three behind him in trifectas. Analysts also see opportunity in pressing Karlwithanarl over Big Paper in exactas where tote value allows, given Big Paper’s combination of price potential and solid backing.
Race 5: Drop Shot and Question Answered form a natural win-exacta box for Pick Pony analysts, with Prime Suspect and Boss’ Deed as logical third and fourth slots. In multi-race play, a three-deep approach using Drop Shot, Question Answered, and Boss’ Deed is recommended when budget allows, with Prime Suspect left as a price-driven addition rather than a core key.
Race 6: Explosively, One Timer, and Itsinmyblood appear on nearly equal footing, making three-horse exacta and trifecta boxes a preferred structure. Golddiggendevil can be reserved for third and fourth positions in trifectas and superfectas as a value closer who benefits if the main trio compromise each other early.
Race 7: Master Mule is the preferred win key, but My Own and Sock It To Me are considered live alternatives who can upset at better prices. Pick Pony analysts recommend exacta and trifecta structures that emphasize Master Mule over My Own and Sock It To Me, with G T Five Hundred included as a saver in horizontals where budget allows, given the split opinions on that runner.
Race 8: Jus Too Fly is treated as a mild stand-out and can be singled on slimmer multi-race tickets, with Liberty Bay as the key backup. Value-focused analysts lean toward exactas emphasizing Jus Too Fly over Liberty Bay and Vino Caldo, while reserving Patronage and Finn Mcsorley for deeper trifecta and superfecta coverage.
Race 9: Jupiter and Jutland form one of the strongest consensus exacta pairs on the card and are ideal as dual anchors in late horizontal sequences. Forum and Mr Randy are recommended mainly for vertical-exotic depth, filling out trifectas and superfectas beneath the top pair, though aggressive players may also include Forum as a minor win saver.
Race 10: British Empress is a prime single for horizontals, with Dodecahedron the clear backup and main win-exacta partner. Pick Pony analysts favor an exacta structure keying British Empress and Dodecahedron over Yammy Yammy Bella and A Long Winters Nap, with longshots like Chinatown Girl or Sassy Julia reserved for deep underneath roles only when chasing a big trifecta or superfecta score.
All consensus and exotic recommendations above are framed so that no horse is assigned more than one finishing position within a given race in the final projected order, preserving a clean and consistent structure for wagering and analysis.
