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Race 1 – Claiming – 1430Y – Dirt
Win: Special Sauce (5) – 50% confidence
Place: Emily’s Joy (2) – 50% confidence
Show: Agua Fresca (6) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Diablo Shiraz (9) – 50% confidence
Analysts are slightly divided on the winner here, though Special Sauce garners the most top-selection support. Emily’s Joy is a strong contender, appearing as a top pick or runner-up on multiple cards. The consensus suggests a battle between these two, with Agua Fresca acting as a potential upsetter.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming – 8F – Dirt
Win: Marshal (5) – 50% confidence
Place: Fly Guy Mick (1) – 75% confidence
Show: Hellacious (3) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Jujubee (4) – 50% confidence
Marshal is the tepid favorite in a race with split opinions. Fly Guy Mick appears on nearly every ticket, often in the runner-up spot, suggesting high reliability for hitting the board. Hellacious offers a contrarian win angle from one source.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming – 1320Y – Dirt
Win: Shez Twisted (14) – 50% confidence
Place: Dragon Navy (3) – 50% confidence
Show: But Seriously (8) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Little Empress (2) – 50% confidence
A true split decision between the outside post of Shez Twisted and the inside draw of Dragon Navy. Analysts are firmly entrenched in two camps here. But Seriously is the clear consensus choice for the bottom of the trifecta.
Race 4 – Claiming – 1320Y – Dirt
Win: Spanish Cara (7) – 75% confidence
Place: Caltha (2) – 50% confidence
Show: Takethesilver (4) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Fondre (1) – 25% confidence
Spanish Cara commands strong authority here with near-universal backing for the win. Caltha is the widely agreed-upon forecast for second. This race presents one of the clearer hierarchal structures on the card.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight – 1320Y – Dirt
Win: Cat Island (3) – 75% confidence
Place: Edey (1) – 50% confidence
Show: Golden Thread (10) – 75% confidence
Alternative: Mo Biscuit (9) – 25% confidence
Cat Island is a dominant favorite, supported by three out of four distinct sources. Edey acts as the primary challenger, while Golden Thread is heavily favored to round out the trifecta, making the 3-1-10 combination a statistically significant baseline.
Race 6 – Claiming – 1320Y – Dirt
Win: Holding The Line (9) – 100% confidence
Place: Stargazzers Dream (10) – 75% confidence
Show: Bet On Bret (5) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Catalina Cat (6) – 25% confidence
This is the first unanimous consensus of the night. Every analyst places Holding The Line on top. Stargazzers Dream is almost equally consistent as the runner-up. The data strongly suggests a cold exacta structure here.
Race 7 – Claiming – 8F – Dirt
Win: Krickle (4) – 50% confidence
Place: Hearts United (11) – 75% confidence
Show: Wave Skipper (13) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Kam’s Rockin Gold (9) – 25% confidence
This race is chaotic. While Krickle has multiple win nods, Hearts United appears on three tickets in various positions, suggesting versatility and safety. Wave Skipper adds to the confusion with both win and place support. Tread carefully with win bets; the place/show pools may offer more stability.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 8F – Dirt
Win: Takemetothebeach (3) – 75% confidence
Place: Golden Sunshine (1) – 75% confidence
Show: Fantastical (4) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Love Her Lots (2) – 50% confidence
A strong two-horse duel is projected between Takemetothebeach and Golden Sunshine. While Takemetothebeach has the edge in win predictions, Golden Sunshine is universally respected. The gap between these two and the rest of the field appears significant in the eyes of the analysts.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight – 1320Y – Dirt
Win: Magical Day (9) – 100% confidence
Place: Loriebeth (10) – 50% confidence
Show: Maclean’s Lullaby (3) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Jenn (5) – 50% confidence
Magical Day is the second unanimous lock of the card. The confidence level is absolute across all sources. Loriebeth is the preferred partner for exactas, though opinion for the minor shares is slightly more scattered than the win position.
Race 10 – Claiming – 1320Y – Dirt
Win: My Life Story (7) – 100% confidence
Place: Another Charlie (5) – 50% confidence
Show: Playing The Angles (9) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Moonrise Drive (2) – 25% confidence
The card concludes with another unanimous selection in My Life Story. The data points to a very predictable win outcome, with Another Charlie and Playing The Angles fighting for the minor spoils.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: A Boxed Exacta including Special Sauce (5) and Emily’s Joy (2) is the logical play given the split win vote. Adding Agua Fresca (6) for a Trifecta box could capture value if the top two falter.
Race 2: Key Marshal (5) in the top position of Trifectas, but include Fly Guy Mick (1) broadly in the second and third slots. A Saver Win bet on Fly Guy Mick is prudent given the consistency of his inclusion in analyst picks.
Race 3: This race screams volatility. Consider an Exacta Box of Shez Twisted (14) and Dragon Navy (3). For deeper exotics like the Superfecta, spread widely in the third and fourth legs as consensus dissolves after the top two.
Race 4: Cold Exacta: Spanish Cara (7) over Caltha (2). This alignment is strong enough to justify a straight wager rather than a box to maximize ROI.
Race 5: Trifecta Wheel: Cat Island (3) over Edey (1) and Golden Thread (10). The hierarchy here is distinct: 3 / 1,10 / 1,9,10.
Race 6: The strongest Exacta data on the card: Holding The Line (9) over Stargazzers Dream (10). It is a high-confidence, low-yield structure, likely requiring a larger base wager to generate significant return.
Race 7: Avoid straight Win bets. Instead, look for value in a Trifecta Box: Krickle (4), Hearts United (11), and Wave Skipper (13). The conflicting opinions suggest a high payout if the “wrong” favorite wins.
Race 8: Exacta Box: Takemetothebeach (3) and Golden Sunshine (1). These two appear superior to the field. A Trifecta Key: 1,3 over 1,3 over 2,4,6 covers the likely scenarios.
Race 9: Superfecta Key: Magical Day (9) over Loriebeth (10) over Jenn (5) and Maclean’s Lullaby (3). The winner seems certain, so the value lies in correctly ordering the vertical spots.
Race 10: Daily Double: Magical Day (Race 9) into My Life Story (Race 10). Both are unanimous selections. For single-race exotics, Key My Life Story (7) over Another Charlie (5) and Playing The Angles (9).
Value Play Observations
Race 1: Agua Fresca (6) is a prime value candidate. Despite being a top pick for one source, they are ignored by others, potentially inflating the tote odds against the favorites.
Race 3: Shez Twisted (14) faces a post-position bias that may drift her odds up. If the public overbets the inside draw of Dragon Navy (3), the value swings to the 14.
Race 7: Hearts United (11) appears on three separate tickets but rarely on top. This “always the bridesmaid” status often leads to overlay odds in the Place and Show pools.
Race 8: Golden Sunshine (1) has enough backing to win but sits second in the consensus count. If Takemetothebeach (3) takes the bulk of the money, Golden Sunshine becomes a mathematical overlay.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The card features three distinct pillars of stability: Race 6 (Holding The Line), Race 9 (Magical Day), and Race 10 (My Life Story). In all three instances, the analyst consensus is unanimous (100% confidence). These runners should form the backbone of any multi-race sequence tickets. They are not betting vehicles for Win value—their odds will likely be short—but they are essential “free squares” for horizontal wagers like the Pick 5 or Pick 4.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 3 and Race 7 represent the highest risk/reward scenarios. In Race 3, the divide between Shez Twisted and Dragon Navy is stark, representing a clash between form and post position. In Race 7, the lack of agreement on a clear winner suggests a chaotic outcome; this is the ideal spot to hit the “All” button in Pick N sequences or to spread widely if budget permits. These are the races where tickets die, but also where the payouts are generated.
Multi-Race Sequences
A distinct opportunity exists in the Late Pick 4 (Races 7-10). You have a chaotic leg in Race 7, followed by a strong two-horse race in Race 8, and concluding with two unanimous singles in Races 9 and 10. A structure like All / 1,3 / 9 / 7 is a cost-effective way to attack the pool, leveraging the high confidence in the final two legs to afford coverage in the volatile seventh race.
Exotic Value Opportunities
Race 5 offers a structured Trifecta opportunity. The consensus clearly delineates the Winner (Cat Island) and the minor awards (Edey, Golden Thread) without much deviation. This allows for “Straight” or heavily weighted “Key” wagers rather than expensive boxes, improving the efficiency of the bet. Conversely, Race 1 offers value in the Place/Show pools; the disagreement on the winner usually softens the market for the second-tier horses like Agua Fresca, making them excellent vehicles for exactas.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the Late Card: Trust the unanimous data in Races 9 and 10. The alignment of every expert source is rare and should be exploited aggressively in multi-race bets.
- Attack Race 7 for Price: This is the most open race of the night. Do not settle for the favorite; the expert disagreement signals vulnerability.
- Respect the Cold Exacta in Race 6: The data pairing of #9 and #10 is the strongest 1-2 correlation on the entire program.
