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Race 1 – Maiden Optional Claiming, 1542Y, Dirt
Win: Paradise Perfect (80%)
Place: Prince Almasty (75%)
Show: Gus’s Drumbeat (35%)
Alternative: You And Me Baby (33%)
Race 2 – Claiming, 1323Y, Dirt
Win: Napa Spirit (78%)
Place: Mamba On Three (70%)
Show: Dissectologist (58%)
Alternative: Awesome Crusader (29%)
Race 3 – Claiming, 8F 110Y, Dirt
Win: Sunrise Drive (77%)
Place: Mehlek (68%)
Show: Mo Tourist (48%)
Alternative: Fast And Ready (20%)
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 8F 110Y, Dirt
Win: Runaway Again (62%)
Place: English Actor (54%)
Show: Skyro (39%)
Alternative: Legal Catch (21%)
Race 5 – Ashbridges Bay Stakes, 8F 110Y, Dirt
Win: Ella It Is (81%)
Place: Regal Moment (65%)
Show: Brengungirl (58%)
Alternative: Hint (31%)
Race 6 – Lake Ontario Stakes, 8F 110Y, Dirt
Win: Sedbury’s Ghost (59%)
Place: Ciunas (46%)
Show: Kekoa (36%)
Alternative: Dewolf (29%)
Race 7 – Starter Optional Claiming, 1542Y, Dirt
Win: Ask In My Name (49%)
Place: Uncaptured Moment (41%)
Show: Walter Me Lad (36%)
Alternative: Bachelor Pad (26%)
Race 8 – Optional Claiming, 8F 110Y, Dirt
Win: Starship Serenity (44%)
Place: Vazhi (42%)
Show: Celebrity Ro (39%)
Alternative: Z Train (32%)
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 8F 110Y, Dirt
Win: Mikelle (67%)
Place: Promising (49%)
Show: Determined First (41%)
Alternative: Dazzling Cruiser (31%)
Race 10 – Optional Claiming, 8F 110Y, Dirt
Win: Pierre (59%)
Place: Private Label (49%)
Show: Phillip My Wine (36%)
Alternative: Mohaymen Diamond (21%)
Race 11 – Claiming, 1323Y, Dirt
Win: Mystic Song (79%)
Place: Princessonamission (47%)
Show: Wildfire (37%)
Alternative: Might Bee Trouble (27%)
Notes on Consensus Picks
Paradise Perfect is the preferred class dropper in Race 1, but Gus’s Drumbeat could be a price surprise if he breaks better. In Race 2, Dissectologist’s speed and class drop keep him alive for exotics. Race 3 expects a more pressured pace, favoring the late-running Sunrise Drive, but Mehlek attracts sharp attention as a live price.
Runaway Again brings class back down in Race 4, but English Actor holds a tactical edge if allowed an easy lead. In the Ashbridges Bay Stakes, Ella It Is and Regal Moment are separated by trip and pace scenario; Brengungirl’s two-turn potential is widely mentioned.
Sedbury’s Ghost commands more upside in Race 6 after accounting for McPherson’s insight, and Ciunas looms largest if the pace gets taxing. The wide-open nature of Race 7 sees several plausible winners, but pace pressure on Walter Me Lad and late energy from Bachelor Pad create upset opportunities.
Starship Serenity in Race 8 is a synthetic specialist and could be a sneak play at good value; consensus points to wide trip reliability as key for Celebrity Ro. Mikelle is universally the safest option in Race 9.
Exotic Bets and Value Plays
Pick Pony analysts favor multi-horse exacta/trifecta boxes in contentious maiden and optional claiming races, especially where consensus is fragmented. The Ashbridges Bay and Lake Ontario Stakes offer logical single possibilities for multi-race bets. Races 7 and 8 are most likely for price horses to hit the frame, and deep superfectas with all listed “Alternative” selections will be favored in large fields.
Value can be found in trifectas using Gus’s Drumbeat (Race 1), Dewolf (Race 6), and Mohaymen Diamond (Race 10) in third and fourth positions.
