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Aqueduct presents an eight-race card featuring an appealing mix of New York-bred maiden stakes, claiming races, and competitive allowance conditions. The afternoon’s action begins at 12:40 PM EST with what handicappers are calling an early contender for worst race of the winter season, but the card improves considerably with several competitive races throughout the afternoon. The day features several well-matched claiming battles and maiden contests that should provide solid wagering opportunities.
The meet continues with strong handle momentum as jockeys and trainers have found their rhythm following the brief interruption caused by the late November labor dispute. Racing returned to normal December 4 without incident, and the sport’s attention now turns to Saturday’s stakes-heavy card featuring the Cigar Mile.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Friday calls for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with temperatures ranging from a high near 36 degrees Fahrenheit to an overnight low around 25 degrees. Northwest winds between 5 to 15 mph are expected throughout the afternoon racing hours. The main track should be listed as fast with no precipitation expected.
These winter conditions typically produce a firm, fast racing surface at Aqueduct. The lack of significant wind compared to the strong gusts that canceled racing earlier in the week should create favorable racing conditions. The cooler temperatures and clear skies mean the track should play consistently throughout the card without any weather-related biases developing.
Track Bias and Tendencies
Recent Aqueduct racing has shown the main track playing reasonably fairly with no extreme biases, though speed has maintained a moderate advantage. Analysis from late November through early December indicates speed horses have won approximately 60% of dirt sprints at six furlongs, with another 15% going to pressing types. The one-mile distance on the main track, which starts horses on the far turn in a one-turn configuration, traditionally favors speed and horses with tactical positioning ability.
The inside posts have shown a slight negative bias in recent weeks, with the rail winning at below-average rates, particularly in sprint races. Handicappers tracking post position statistics note that outside posts in the 6-8 range have produced strong impact values of 1.4 to 2.0 depending on distance, while inside posts show impact values around 0.85. This suggests saving ground on the rail has not been as advantageous as securing clear sailing room on the outside during the current meet.
Routes on the main track have shown more balance between running styles, with closers finding success when honest pace develops. The 1 1/8-mile distance provides sufficient real estate for rallying types to make their moves, particularly when early fractions are contested.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming Fillies and Mares
Post Time: 12:40 PM
Purse: $35,000. 1 Mile Dirt. 3-Year-Olds and Up Fillies and Mares. Claiming Price $20,000.
Pace Analysis
This is a pedestrian maiden claiming affair with limited early speed and questionable quality throughout. The pace should be moderate to slow as most entrants show limited gate speed. Cara’s Chianti figures to show early foot from post 1, while Autumn’s Turn from the outside may also factor early. The slow pace scenario could allow any horse with tactical speed to secure favorable position without expending significant energy.
Key Contenders
Cara’s Chianti holds appeal as the less exposed option in a weak field. The Mitchell Friedman trainee showed some ability in her debut and returns with Ruben Silvera aboard. While she lost to Autumn’s Turn last time, she has room for improvement with more seasoning. The rail post concerns exist based on recent track statistics, but in a race this slow, position matters less than pure ability.
Autumn’s Turn brings a 0-for-25 maiden record to this assignment, raising significant questions about her ability to break through. She defeated Cara’s Chianti in their last encounter and draws the outside post, which has shown better statistics lately. However, with 25 career losses, bettors must question whether she possesses enough talent to win at any level.
Secondary Choices
Paraiba Blue ships in from Laurel and drops significantly in class for John Pregman. Ricardo Santana Jr. picks up the mount, which adds appeal. The filly has been competitive in better races at Laurel and this drop to $20,000 maiden claiming level represents a significant class descent that could prove effective.
Selections
Win: Cara’s Chianti
Place: Autumn’s Turn
Show: Paraiba Blue
Race 2 – Claiming Sprint
Post Time: 1:09 PM
Purse: $65,000. 6 Furlongs Dirt. 3-Year-Olds and Up. Non-winners since June 5. Claiming Price $40,000.
Pace Analysis
This sprint sets up as a contentious pace scenario with multiple speed types entered. Lost in Rome, Social Hour, and Big Hat Willie all show early speed and could engage in a damaging pace duel. The six-furlong distance leaves little margin for error, and those pressing the pace may compromise their chances. Trust Issues and Barksdale bring tactical speed and closing ability that becomes dangerous if the early runners hook up.
Key Contenders
Barksdale stands out as the top selection with Flavien Prat aboard for Ilkay Kantarmaci. Prat currently dominates the Aqueduct jockey standings with 33 wins at a 38.4% strike rate and this combination has proven lethal throughout the meet. Barksdale shows versatility in running style and possesses tactical speed that allows positioning behind a contested pace. The class and consistency make this horse the horse to beat.
Big Hat Willie for Rob Atras has won 10 of 38 career starts and shows legitimate early speed. Manuel Franco rides and the combination of speed and a hot rider makes this gelding dangerous. The concern remains whether he can hold off closers if he engages in a pace duel, but his consistency at this level keeps him in all exotics.
Secondary Choices
Trust Issues, also trained by Rob Atras, provides the tactical closer option if the pace collapses. This gelding has hit the board in 11 of 17 starts and thrives when pace develops in front. Christopher Elliott rides and this barn knows how to place horses effectively.
Social Hour adds intrigue as a potential upset candidate. While lacking consistency, this gelding won at this level recently and could benefit if others engage early while he stalks.
Selections
Win: Barksdale
Place: Big Hat Willie
Show: Trust Issues
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight 2-Year-Olds
Post Time: 1:38 PM
Purse: $80,000. 1 Mile Dirt. New York-Bred 2-Year-Old Colts and Geldings.
Pace Analysis
The one-turn mile configuration should favor horses with tactical speed. Fourth and One figures to establish the early lead with his front-running style, while Max Money and Royal Riddle possess the tactical speed to track closely. The pace should be honest but manageable, setting up a stretch battle between the top contenders.
Key Contenders
Max Money represents the Michael Maker stable with Flavien Prat aboard, creating a powerful combination. The Maker-Prat tandem has been highly effective at Aqueduct this meet. Max Money has finished second or third in all four career starts, showing consistent improvement. The colt handled the one-mile distance adequately last time and should appreciate the step back to maiden special weight company after facing stakes competition.
Fourth and One brings strong credentials for Jeremiah Englehart with Manuel Franco riding. This gelding has hit the board in all three starts, including two runner-up finishes. Franco ranks second at the meet with 15 wins from 107 mounts. The front-running style could prove advantageous if allowed to control fractions on the lead.
Secondary Choices
Royal Riddle for Joe Sharp adds depth with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. This trainer wins at 29% on the circuit and the colt has shown improvement with two consecutive place finishes. The pressing style and inside post could allow him to save ground while tracking the pace.
Tizlawry makes just his second career start for Chris Englehart. The gelding showed promise with a second-place finish in his debut and adds intrigue as a lightly raced prospect with upside.
Longshots
Snickery represents Mark Casse with Ricardo Santana Jr. in the irons. While winless in two starts, this gelding ships in from better competition at Belmont Park and could improve significantly with the experience.
Selections
Win: Max Money
Place: Fourth and One
Show: Royal Riddle
Race 4 – Claiming Route
Post Time: 2:08 PM
Purse: $38,000. 1 1/8 Miles Dirt. 3-Year-Olds and Up. Non-winners since June 5. Claiming Price $16,000.
Pace Analysis
The 1 1/8-mile distance provides ample opportunity for pace dynamics to unfold. Best Bet and Love Me Not from the adjacent race show early speed tendencies that could establish honest fractions. Ministerial and He’s Got This possess the closing ability to benefit from a contested pace scenario. The race should set up favorably for late-running types if the pace proves legitimate.
Key Contenders
Ministerial towers over this field as the class standout for Wesley Ward with Flavien Prat aboard. This gelding steps down significantly after competing at Keeneland in allowance company. While finishing eighth last time, that race came against much better and he owns strong form at Aqueduct with two runner-up finishes. The combination of class edge, distance suitability, and the Prat factor makes him the overwhelming favorite.
Best Bet provides the pace-pressing alternative for Gustavo Rodriguez with Eric Cancel riding. This gelding has hit the board in 10 of 22 starts and owns tactical speed that allows positioning near the front. The recent third-place finish at this track suggests current form, and he could capitalize if Ministerial fails to fire.
Secondary Choices
He’s Got This adds closing punch for Robert Johnston. Sahin Civaci rides and this gelding has cashed in 20 of 40 career starts. The consistent performance record and closing style make him a logical inclusion in exotics.
Bob John Ray for Rob Atras provides value as a recent claiming winner at this track. Manuel Franco adds appeal and this gelding’s recent victory demonstrates current form.
Selections
Win: Ministerial
Place: Best Bet
Show: He’s Got This
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming 2-Year-Old Fillies
Post Time: 2:37 PM
Purse: $38,000. 1 Mile Dirt. New York-Bred 2-Year-Old Fillies. Claiming Price $30,000.
Pace Analysis
Rose Lisa figures to establish the early lead with her front-running style and should control the tempo. Several closers in the field suggest she may face little early pressure, allowing comfortable fractions. This sets up ideally for the speed horse to control her own destiny while forcing others to rally from behind.
Key Contenders
Rose Lisa stands as the heavy favorite with Flavien Prat aboard for Jorge Abreu. This filly has been competitive in all three starts, including races against better competition at Belmont and Saratoga. The front-running style and class edge over this field make her the clear selection. Prat’s presence adds significant appeal as he continues dominating the meet.
Banco Di Sicilia provides the primary threat for Chris Englehart with Manuel Franco riding. This filly has hit the board twice in four starts and showed ability in her debut at this track. The combination of Franco’s strong meet and Englehart’s solid trainer statistics makes her a logical second choice.
Secondary Choices
Luciana’s Honor brings pedigree and connections for Mark Hennig with Joel Rosario aboard. Rosario wins at 16.7% at the meet and this filly’s consistency could produce an exotics finish.
Berbice Honey makes her second career start for Ronald Breed Jr. with Jaime Rodriguez riding. Rodriguez wins at 11.2% on the circuit and the filly could improve with experience.
Selections
Win: Rose Lisa
Place: Banco Di Sicilia
Show: Luciana’s Honor
Race 6 – Claiming Sprint
Post Time: 3:06 PM
Purse: $33,000. 6 Furlongs Dirt. 3-Year-Olds and Up Non-winners of Three Races. Claiming Price $17,500.
Pace Analysis
Multiple speed types create a contentious pace scenario. Airborne Elite, Funny Uncle, and Capt Jax Parrow all show early speed tendencies that could lead to pace compromising moves. The six-furlong sprint distance provides little margin for error when horses engage in speed duels. Closers could benefit if the pace melts down.
Key Contenders
Airborne Elite represents Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano aboard, creating a powerful combination. Rice wins at 26% in her career at Aqueduct and this gelding shows early speed and consistency. The gelding won most recently at Saratoga in a similar sprint and demonstrated the ability to rate kindly while maintaining position. Lezcano’s 17.3% win rate at the meet adds appeal.
Funny Uncle for Ilkay Kantarmaci brings Eric Cancel to the irons. This gelding shows tactical speed that could prove useful if early runners engage. Cancel has been effective throughout the meet and this gelding’s recent efforts suggest competitive form.
Secondary Choices
Capt Jax Parrow adds early speed for Orlando Noda. Reylu Gutierrez rides and this gelding could steal the race if he gets a clean break and controls the tempo.
Ace It provides a potential value play dropping in class. Lane Luzzi takes the mount for Carlos Figueroa Jr. and this gelding could improve with the class relief.
Longshots
Panagiotis ships in with outside credentials that could translate if the pace collapses. This represents a live upset candidate at potential double-digit odds.
Selections
Win: Airborne Elite
Place: Funny Uncle
Show: Capt Jax Parrow
Race 7 – Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time: 3:35 PM
Purse: $55,000. 1 Mile Dirt. 3-Year-Olds and Up. Starter Optional Claiming $25,000.
Pace Analysis
Love Me Not figures to establish the early lead from post 3 with his front-running style. Sagamore Mischief also shows early speed tendencies that could press or challenge for the lead. The one-turn mile should allow the pace to develop naturally without excessive pressure. Systemic Change and Refuah bring tactical and closing ability that becomes dangerous if honest fractions develop.
Key Contenders
Systemic Change represents Michael Maker with Flavien Prat aboard, continuing the powerful combination that has dominated the meet. This gelding won his last start at Aqueduct and owns strong local form with multiple victories at the track. The combination of current form, tactical versatility, and the Prat factor makes him a formidable favorite.
Love Me Not for Jamie Ness brings different dimensions with Jaime Rodriguez riding. This gelding shows consistent early speed and owns solid form indicators. Rodriguez wins at 11.2% on the circuit and Ness maintains a strong 29% win rate overall. The front-running style could prove effective if he controls comfortable fractions.
Secondary Choices
Sagamore Mischief adds intrigue with Manuel Franco aboard for Gustavo Rodriguez. This gelding won recently at Saratoga in a sprint and could handle the route distance. Franco’s presence keeps him competitive in all exotics.
Refuah provides closing punch for Joe Sharp with Kendrick Carmouche riding. Sharp wins at 29% overall and this gelding has been competitive in recent efforts. The closing style could benefit from pace pressure up front.
Longshots
Power Seeker represents Rudy Rodriguez with Jose Antonio Gomez aboard. While the jockey’s statistics lag, this horse owns tactical ability and could factor at a price.
Brew Pub adds depth as a consistent performer who could improve with pace pressure developing ahead.
Selections
Win: Systemic Change
Place: Love Me Not
Show: Sagamore Mischief
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight 3-Year-Olds and Up
Post Time: 4:04 PM
Purse: $80,000. 1 Mile Dirt. New York-Bred 3-Year-Olds and Up Colts and Geldings.
Pace Analysis
Several horses show tactical speed with Twohonestmischief the likely pacesetter. Askingforafriend, Probability, and Poppy’s Ticket possess pressing and stalking styles that should create a contested pace. The one-turn mile configuration should favor horses with tactical positioning who can secure trips near the front without expending excessive energy.
Key Contenders
Probability for William Walden with Manuel Franco aboard represents the morning line favorite. This gelding finished third in his debut at Belmont and showed improvement. Franco’s strong meet statistics and Walden’s 24% win rate make this combination formidable. The lightly raced profile suggests upside potential.
Askingforafriend brings Michael Maker and Flavien Prat together once again. This gelding has hit the board in all six career starts, including three runner-up finishes. The consistency and connections make him the primary threat to Probability. The experience advantage over Probability could prove decisive.
Secondary Choices
Twohonestmischief for Chris Englehart adds depth with Eric Cancel riding. This gelding has been competitive in multiple starts and shows early speed that could control the tempo. Cancel’s effectiveness at the meet makes him dangerous.
Guilty provides tactical speed for Bruce Levine with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. The combination adds appeal and this gelding showed improvement in recent efforts.
Longshots
Poppy’s Ticket for Chris Englehart with Ricardo Santana Jr. represents another Englehart trained entry. The lightly raced gelding hit the board in both starts and could improve significantly.
Kaz Oil Changer adds intrigue as a consistent performer who has hit the board in four of five starts. Silvestre Gonzalez rides for Dimitrios Synnefias.
Selections
Win: Probability
Place: Askingforafriend
Show: Twohonestmischief
Jockey Notes and Insights
Flavien Prat continues his absolute domination of the Aqueduct winter meet with 33 victories from 86 mounts for a stunning 38.4% win rate. His 61.6% in-the-money percentage demonstrates consistent excellence. Prat has six mounts on Friday’s card, making him a strong play in multiple races. His recent five-win day on November 30 showcased his current hot streak. When Prat teams with top trainers like Michael Maker, the combination becomes nearly unstoppable.
Manuel Franco ranks second at the meet with 15 wins from 107 starts at 14.0%. Franco maintains strong relationships with key barns including Jeremiah Englehart and Chris Englehart. He has seven mounts on the Friday card and should be included in wagering strategies. The Franco-Englehart combination has proven particularly effective.
Kendrick Carmouche provides value throughout the card with 16 wins from 89 starts at 18.0%. His 56.2% in-the-money rate demonstrates consistency. Carmouche rides effectively for multiple barns and often provides overlay opportunities when Prat and Franco command public attention.
Jose Lezcano sits fourth at the meet with 14 wins from 81 starts at 17.3%. His partnership with Linda Rice has produced consistent results and he should be respected whenever Rice trains.
Ricardo Santana Jr. has been quieter than usual with 10 wins from 98 starts at 10.2%, but the quality rider remains dangerous when paired with elite trainers like Mark Casse.
Eric Cancel provides solid value with 8 wins from multiple barns. His partnership with trainers like Chris Englehart and Ilkay Kantarmaci makes him a consistent player.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Michael Maker leads all trainers at the meet with exceptional statistics and his partnership with Flavien Prat has been devastating to opponents. Maker trains horses that fit perfectly into Aqueduct’s race conditions and he consistently finds spots where his runners possess class and form advantages.
Ilkay Kantarmaci has emerged as a consistent force at the meet, winning at strong percentages. The trainer’s relationship with Prat has produced multiple winners and horses from this barn should be respected.
Chris Englehart maintains a solid 16% win rate historically at Aqueduct and fields multiple runners on Friday’s card. His New York-bred runners often show value as they frequently outrun their odds. The Englehart-Franco combination has been particularly effective.
Linda Rice continues her longstanding success at Aqueduct, winning at 26% historically in claiming and allowance races. Her runners typically show sharp form and when paired with Jose Lezcano, the combination demands respect.
Rob Atras fields competitive runners throughout the claiming ranks. While his overall statistics may not match elite trainers, his horses come prepared and often produce at generous odds. The trainer’s relationship with Manuel Franco adds appeal.
Jamie Ness wins at an impressive 29% overall rate and his runners typically show early speed and tactical positioning. When Ness ships horses to New York, they merit strong consideration.
Mark Casse and Jorge Abreu both train quality New York-breds who often possess class edges over state-bred competition. Their runners should be respected when appearing in restricted state-bred events.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Friday card presents several strategic wagering opportunities based on the Flavien Prat factor. With six mounts on the card, Prat provides the foundation for multiple exotic wagers. Consider using Prat horses as singles in Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 sequences, particularly in races 2, 4, and 7 where he rides prohibitive favorites on class.
Race 1 presents a difficult puzzle and should be approached cautiously. Consider using multiple horses in multi-race wagers or passing the race entirely as the quality concerns throughout the field create unpredictability.
Race 2 sets up as a key race for value seekers. While Barksdale deserves favoritism, the contentious pace scenario could produce an upset. Consider boxing the top four in exactas and trifectas to capture potential pace meltdowns.
Race 3 provides a playable two-horse race between Max Money and Fourth and One. These represent the clear top selections and boxing them in exactas provides solid value. Consider using both in the top two positions of trifecta wheels with Royal Riddle and Tizlawry underneath.
Race 4 appears single-worthy with Ministerial if willing to accept short prices. The class edge appears overwhelming and using this race as a banker in Pick 3s and Pick 4s makes strategic sense.
Race 7 presents the most intriguing wagering race on the card. Systemic Change deserves favoritism but Love Me Not provides legitimate winning credentials at a potentially generous price. Consider playing both horses across the top in exactas while using a wider spread in trifectas and superfectas. Sagamore Mischief and Refuah add depth to exotic plays.
Race 8 closes the card with a competitive maiden field. While Probability deserves favoritism, Askingforafriend provides a strong second choice with the powerful Maker-Prat combo. Consider boxing these two in exactas while spreading to include Twohonestmischief and Guilty in trifecta and superfecta plays.
Suggested multi-race sequence plays include a Pick 4 covering races 5-8 using Prat horses as singles in races 5 and 8 while spreading in races 6 and 7. A more aggressive approach involves playing a Pick 5 from races 4-8 using Ministerial as a single in race 4 while spreading the other legs.
Value hunters should focus attention on Race 7 where Love Me Not could provide solid overlay opportunities if Systemic Change attracts heavy public support. Additionally, Race 6 presents value possibilities if Airborne Elite commands excessive public attention, allowing horses like Funny Uncle and Capt Jax Parrow to provide exotics value.
Consider horizontal wager strategies focusing on races where Prat rides non-favorites or where multiple barns from the leading trainer standings compete. These races often produce the best value opportunities as public attention divides across multiple quality connections rather than concentrating on a single overwhelming choice.
