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Aqueduct – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for December 6, 2025

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Aqueduct hosts an exceptional 11-race card featuring six stakes races, including four graded events headlined by the Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap and Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. This marquee program offers Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks qualifying points while showcasing New York's premier winter racing. The stakes-laden afternoon includes two $500,000 New York Stallion Series events, the Grade 3 Elite Power Stakes, and the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes for juvenile fillies.

First post is 11:20 AM Eastern Time with racing continuing through approximately 4:07 PM for the finale.

Weather and Track Conditions

Current forecast calls for temperatures starting in the low-to-mid 30s with early morning snow showers possible between 4-6 AM, though accumulation should be minimal at 0.1 inches or less. By first post at 11:20 AM, conditions will improve to cloudy skies with temperatures climbing to 35-40°F throughout the afternoon. Northwest winds of 5-9 mph are expected, significantly lighter than earlier in the week when high winds forced race cancellations.​

The main track is expected to be listed as fast, with the cold temperatures and firm footing producing a consistent racing surface throughout the card. Any early morning precipitation should be cleared well before racing begins.​

Track Bias and Post Position Tendencies

Recent Aqueduct racing has shown a moderate speed bias with frontrunners and pressers winning approximately 60% of dirt sprints at six furlongs. The rail has demonstrated a slight negative bias in recent weeks, with inside posts showing impact values around 0.85 compared to outside posts in the 6-8 range producing strong impact values of 1.4-2.0.​

Route races have played more fairly with better balance between running styles when honest pace develops. The one-mile distance starting on the far turn traditionally favors horses with tactical speed and the ability to secure good position early. Closers can be effective in routes when early fractions are contested.​

Handicappers should note that saving ground on the rail has not been as advantageous as securing clear sailing room on the outside during the current meet. Speed has held up well, particularly in sprint distances.​

Race 1 – Claiming ($10,000, 6 Furlongs)

Post Time: 11:20 AM

Pace Analysis

This $10,000 claiming sprint should feature moderate early pressure with Brave Buck and Cathedral Beach likely showing early speed. Princip has tactical speed to press or stalk, while O P Firecracker returns to sprinting for the first time in years. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, setting up well for horses with tactical positioning.​

Key Contenders

Brave Buck emerges as the logical favorite despite stepping up slightly in class. The Linda Rice-trained gelding has won two of his last three starts and gets the riding services of Kendrick Carmouche, who is hitting at 17.2% during the current meet. Brave Buck showed determination when winning last out, though that race featured some traffic issues. The key concern is whether the incident-marred nature of that victory inflates his current form.​

Princip finished a solid second against tougher competition last time and drops back to this level with Manuel Franco, who has 18 wins from 113 starts at the meet. The rail draw could prove problematic in getting shuffled back early, but this gelding has shown the ability to close effectively. His recent form suggests he can handle this group if he gets a clean trip.​

Cathedral Beach drops to the $10,000 level after running third behind a heavily favored rival last time. The dark bay gelding bobbled significantly after the start in that effort yet still managed to close for third. If he breaks cleanly and shows more early speed as he has in the past, Cathedral Beach becomes very dangerous with Julio Hernandez in the irons.​

Secondary Choices

O P Firecracker presents an intriguing angle as a horse returning to sprinting for the first time in years. This gelding showed promise in his only two sprint attempts early in his career and now cuts back in distance with blinkers off. The equipment change and distance cutback could spark improvement. With plenty of other speed to press him early, O P Firecracker may benefit if the pace becomes contested.​

Divine Leader brings experience with 122 pounds and gets Ricardo Santana Jr, though his recent form has been inconsistent. The Johnston trainee would need significant improvement to factor here.

Selections

Win: Brave Buck
Place: Princip
Show: Cathedral Beach

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile, 2-Year-Olds)

Post Time: 11:48 AM

Pace Analysis

This mile maiden for juveniles should feature tactical speed from multiple runners with no obvious pace-pressers. Double Act, Stream It, and Good Illusion all showed ability to rate in previous starts. The pace may be moderate to slow early, which could favor horses with a strong turn of foot. The Chad Brown duo of Schoolyardsuperman and Mr. Miracle bring exceptional credentials to this spot.​

Key Contenders

Mr. Miracle represents the powerful Chad Brown/Flavien Prat combination that is winning at a remarkable 38.5% clip at the current Aqueduct meet. Prat's dominance continues to be a significant factor, particularly with Brown trainees. This Curlin colt out of Cherry Lodge possesses excellent breeding for the distance and should appreciate the stretch out to two turns. Brown has been exceptionally successful with first-time routers, and Mr. Miracle's breeding suggests stamina won't be an issue.​

Schoolyardsuperman provides Brown with a second powerful option in this spot. This Practical Joke colt has shown strong form in recent starts, including a runner-up finish that suggests readiness to break through. The name alone indicates confidence from the Hit The Bid Racing Stable connections. With Manuel Franco taking the mount, Schoolyardsuperman has the tactical speed to secure good position and the acceleration to finish.​

Double Act comes from the powerful William Mott stable and gets Junior Alvarado, a combination that demands respect. This Into Mischief colt has been improving with each start and the added distance should suit. Mott's patience in bringing this colt along suggests confidence in his ability. Double Act's recent works indicate readiness for a breakthrough performance.​

Secondary Choices

Stream It showed promise last time for Linda Rice and could benefit from the distance. The addition of Kendrick Carmouche provides a jockey upgrade, and Rice's strong form at the meet (19 wins from 67 starts) makes any of her runners dangerous.​

Buntus Foclora brings a solid female pedigree and gets Hall of Famer John Velazquez for trainer Amelia Green. The Thousand Words colt has shown flashes of ability and could improve with experience.​

Good Illusion and Jet Off complete the field with legitimate chances if the pace sets up favorably.

Betting Strategy

The Chad Brown duo makes this race challenging from a value perspective, but Mr. Miracle's breeding and the Prat factor make him the selection. Consider exacta boxes with the top four and trifectas using Brown's pair over the field.

Selections

Win: Mr. Miracle
Place: Schoolyardsuperman
Show: Double Act

Race 3 – Demoiselle Stakes (Grade 2, 1 1/8 Miles, 2-Year-Old Fillies)

Post Time: 12:17 PM

Pace Analysis

This compact field of six juvenile fillies should see early pressure from Shilling, who has shown front-running ability in her last two victories. Jumping the Gun may also show early speed, setting up a scenario where the pace could be contested through the first six furlongs. The stretch to nine furlongs will test stamina, particularly for Zany, who has only run once and won a sprint. The pace scenario favors fillies who can rate kindly and deliver a sustained run.​

Key Contenders

Concurrently emerges as the most intriguing play in this Grade 2 event. The Klaravich Stables runner for Chad Brown gets Flavien Prat, the meet's leading rider at 38.5%. Brown noted that Concurrently has flourished while training at Belmont Park and believes she's looking for the mile and an eighth distance. After a poor turf debut, she has improved with each dirt start, including a hard-fought maiden victory and a nose second to returning rival Believable. Brown specifically mentioned expecting her to race more prominently as distances increase, suggesting she'll secure better position early. The Curlin filly's pedigree (out of Grade 3-placed Dreamcall) indicates stamina, and she represents exceptional value at 3-1.​

Zany will likely go off as the favorite based on her impressive debut victory at Gulfstream Park, where she dominated by 6.5 lengths after setting pressured fractions. This Todd Pletcher-trained American Pharoah filly earned a field-best 76 Beyer Speed Figure and is out of Grade 3-winner Mo' Green by Uncle Mo. However, she faces significant questions about stamina extension from 6.5 furlongs to 9 furlongs and ships from Florida for only her second career start. The pressure Shilling will apply early could compromise Zany's chances if she goes to the front.​

Believable presents strong value at 5-1 as the other Pletcher entry. This $800,000 Curlin filly gets blinkers added and Hall of Famer John Velazquez takes over. She's a full sister to dual graded stakes-winning millionaire Tenfold (by Curlin out of Tapit mare Temptress), meaning stamina should be no issue. Believable beat Concurrently by a nose three starts back but finished four lengths behind Shilling in the Listed Tempted last out. The blinkers addition could spark improvement, and her pedigree suggests the distance will suit.​

Secondary Choices

Shilling comes in with a two-race win streak for trainer Ken McPeek and gets Chris Elliott, who has been aboard for all three of her starts. The Global Campaign filly showed speed in winning the Listed Tempted by four lengths over Believable last out. She bobbled at the start yet still set the pace and never looked back. McPeek expressed confidence she can handle the added distance, though that remains her biggest question mark.​

Ivy Girl represents the long shot for Amelia Green and Manuel Franco. This filly will need significant improvement to factor.

Betting Strategy

This race offers excellent exotic opportunities. Concurrently presents the best value as a win bet, while the likely short price on Zany makes using her in the exotics prudent. Consider exacta and trifecta combinations using Concurrently and Believable over Zany and Shilling.

Selections

Win: Concurrently
Place: Believable
Show: Zany

Race 4 – Allowance (6 Furlongs, Fillies and Mares)

Post Time: 12:45 PM

Pace Analysis

This six-furlong allowance sprint for fillies and mares should feature contested early fractions with Army Gal and Meg's Foxy Grey likely showing early speed. Layered has tactical speed to secure good position, while Despo's Dream can press or stalk. The pace should be honest, potentially setting up a closer if the early battle becomes too taxing.​

Key Contenders

Layered represents the powerful Chad Brown/Flavien Prat combination that continues to dominate at Aqueduct. The 3-year-old filly gets a weight break (118 pounds) compared to some rivals and should benefit from Prat's uncanny ability to secure ideal trips. Brown's fillies have been particularly effective in these allowance spots, and the tactical speed Layered possesses should allow Prat to position her perfectly off the expected early pace.​

Despo's Dream gets the significant jockey upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr, the nation's leading rider by earnings who has been in exceptional form. Linda Rice has been the meet's leading trainer with 19 wins from 67 starts, and she clearly has this filly fit and ready. Despo's Dream has shown versatility in running style and the Ortiz upgrade could be the difference.​

Army Gal provides Rice with a second strong entry. This 3-year-old gets Jose Lezcano, who has been winning at 17.1% during the meet. Army Gal has shown early speed in the past and could be part of the early pace scenario. The weight break to 120 pounds helps her chances.​

Secondary Choices

Practical Lov represents the powerful William Mott stable and gets Hall of Famer John Velazquez. This 3-year-old filly could benefit if the pace becomes contested, as Mott's fillies often improve with racing. The breeding suggests she should handle this level.​

Meg's Foxy Grey for Michelle Nevin with Ricardo Santana Jr likely shows early speed and could be dangerous on the front end if she gets loose.

Mila Candy gets Manuel Franco for Ilkay Kantarmaci and receives a significant weight break to 118 pounds. The Franco/Kantarmaci combination has shown flashes of competence.

Betting Strategy

This race offers depth and could produce a decent payoff. Layered represents the safest play, but exacta combinations with the Rice duo and Practical Lov make sense.

Selections

Win: Layered
Place: Despo's Dream
Show: Practical Lov

Race 5 – Elite Power Stakes (Grade 3, 6 Furlongs)

Post Time: 1:13 PM

Feet Per Second (FPS) trends

Pace Analysis

This Grade 3 sprint should feature tactical speed from multiple runners with no clear pacesetter. El Grande O and Full Moon Madness have shown ability to press, while Just Beat the Odds has tactical speed to secure position. The pace should be moderate early, potentially quickening significantly in the final three furlongs. This scenario could favor horses with a strong closing kick.​

Key Contenders

El Grande O represents the powerful Linda Rice/Flavien Prat combination and drew the rail, which could be beneficial if he breaks alertly. This 4-year-old colt is dropping from graded stakes company and receives significant weight relief (120 pounds versus 124 for older rivals). Prat's 38.5% win rate at the meet makes any of his mounts dangerous, and Rice's dominance (19 wins from 67 starts) cannot be ignored. El Grande O has shown tactical speed and the ability to rate, which should serve him well in this spot.​

Acoustic Ave provides Rice with a formidable second entry. This 5-year-old gelding gets Jose Lezcano and also receives the 120-pound weight concession. Rice's decision to enter two in this spot suggests confidence in both runners. Acoustic Ave has been competitive at this level and could benefit if El Grande O takes most of the attention.​

Subrogate brings an excellent recent race into this spot and gets Irad Ortiz Jr, whose hot streak continues. This 5-year-old horse for trainer Jorge Duarte Jr has shown improvement and the Jorge Duarte Jr barn has been capable of producing competitive runners. The 122-pound impost gives him a legitimate shot.​

Secondary Choices

Full Moon Madness represents Michelle Nevin with Ricardo Santana Jr and has shown flashes of ability. At 124 pounds, he faces a tough assignment but could factor if the pace sets up right.

Just Beat the Odds for Gregory Sacco gets Manuel Franco and has been competitive in similar company. The drop from graded stakes to listed stakes could spark improvement.

St. Jude brings experience but faces a difficult task at this level.

Betting Strategy

This race offers value opportunities with the Rice duo likely splitting favoritism. Consider exacta combinations with El Grande O and Subrogate over the field.

Selections

Win: El Grande O
Place: Subrogate
Show: Acoustic Ave

Race 6 – Maiden Claiming (7 Furlongs, NY-Bred Fillies and Mares)

Post Time: 1:42 PM

Pace Analysis

This maiden claiming sprint for New York-bred fillies should feature early speed from multiple runners. The large field of 11 creates potential for traffic issues, making post position and early positioning crucial. Several fillies have shown ability to press the pace, suggesting honest fractions through the first six furlongs.​

Key Contenders

Fire Agate represents the powerful Michael Maker/Flavien Prat combination and ships in from Belmont. Prat's dominance at Aqueduct (38.5% win rate) makes this filly extremely dangerous despite limited experience on dirt. Maker has been winning at 18% during periods when he focuses on specific spots, and the decision to bring this filly here suggests confidence. The 5-2 morning line may underestimate her chances.​

Tahila gets Manuel Franco for Miguel Clement and drew post 4, which should allow for a clean break. Franco's 18 wins at the meet and his familiarity with the Clement barn make this combination dangerous. Tahila has shown ability in previous starts and the addition of Franco could provide the difference.​

Kat Stormy represents the powerful William Mott stable and gets Sahin Civaci. Mott's 73 starts at Aqueduct have produced 11 wins (15.1%), and his fillies often improve significantly with racing. The blinkers addition suggests a tactical change that could spark improvement.​

Secondary Choices

Alyvia Mavis for Jamie Ness gets Jaime Rodriguez and brings competitive form into this spot. Both Ness (18% meet win rate) and Rodriguez have shown competence.

Lady Meringue provides Linda Rice with an entry and gets Kendrick Carmouche. Rice's 19 wins from 67 starts makes any of her runners live.

Betting Strategy

This race offers value with the large field. Fire Agate represents the best combination of jockey and trainer form. Consider exacta and trifecta combinations with the top selections.

Selections

Win: Fire Agate
Place: Tahila
Show: Kat Stormy

Race 7 – Allowance (1 Mile)

Post Time: 2:11 PM

Pace Analysis

This one-mile allowance for three-year-olds and upward should feature moderate early pace with several horses possessing tactical speed. Land d'Oro has shown ability to press or stalk, while Waitlist and Life and Times can rate kindly. The pace should be honest without becoming suicidal, setting up well for horses with closing kicks. The large field of 12 creates potential for traffic issues, making jockey skill paramount.​

Key Contenders

Land d'Oro emerges as the deserving favorite for this competitive allowance. The Miguel Clement-trained gelding gets Ricardo Santana Jr and has shown consistent form in recent starts. The 4-year-old has tactical speed to secure good position and the ability to sustain his run through the stretch. Clement's recent success with this gelding suggests he's found the right level. The 8-5 morning line appears accurate, though not offering significant value.​

My Mitole represents an intriguing play for trainer Carlos Martin with Flavien Prat in the irons. Prat's 38.5% win rate at the meet elevates any horse he rides, and this 3-year-old colt receives a significant weight break at 118 pounds compared to 123 for older rivals. My Mitole has shown ability to close effectively and could benefit from the expected honest pace. The post 10 draw gives Prat options in the early running.​

Waitlist comes from the powerful Linda Rice stable with Ruben Silvera riding. Rice's dominance at the meet (19 wins from 67 starts) makes this 4-year-old gelding dangerous despite past inconsistencies. Waitlist has shown flashes of ability and could benefit from the competitive pace scenario.​

Secondary Choices

Commuted for Robert Falcone Jr gets Irad Ortiz Jr and brings blinkers ON for this start. The equipment change combined with Ortiz's hot streak makes this gelding worth including in exotics. The post 3 draw should allow for a clean trip.​

Landing Craft represents Amelia Green with John Velazquez and comes with blinkers OFF. The equipment change and Hall of Fame rider make this colt worth consideration, particularly at a price.​

Life and Times comes from the Todd Pletcher barn with Jose Lezcano riding. Pletcher's consistency in these allowance spots demands respect.

Longshots

Finestkind for Mark Casse gets Manuel Franco and could offer value if the pace sets up right. The post 8 draw and Franco's meet success make this gelding worth a look in deeper exotics.

Playa Del Mar represents William Mott with Junior Alvarado and has shown ability in past starts.

Betting Strategy

This competitive allowance offers excellent exotic opportunities. Consider using Land d'Oro and My Mitole in exactas and trifectas, spreading underneath with Waitlist, Commuted, and Life and Times. The large field and competitive nature suggest value in the trifecta and superfecta.

Selections

Win: My Mitole
Place: Land d'Oro
Show: Waitlist

Race 8 – New York Stallion Series Stakes (7 Furlongs, 2-Year-Old Fillies)

Post Time: 2:39 PM

Pace Analysis

This $500,000 stakes for New York-sired juvenile fillies should feature tactical speed from multiple runners in the large field of 13. Oh, Fancy Lights, and Hot Currency could show early speed, while She's Country has tactical ability. The pace should be honest through six furlongs before the stretch drive determines the winner.​

Key Contenders

She's Country represents the powerful George Weaver/Irad Ortiz Jr combination and brings strong recent form into this stakes debut. Ortiz's hot streak continues as he leads all North American riders in earnings, having recently surpassed $39.2 million for the season. This filly earned a 122-pound weight assignment, suggesting the highest regard from the handicapper. Weaver's success with New York-sired horses makes this combination extremely dangerous.​

Hot Currency provides Linda Rice with a strong entry and gets Flavien Prat, whose 38.5% win rate at the meet elevates this filly's chances significantly. Rice's dominance as the meet's leading trainer (19 wins from 67 starts) combined with Prat's brilliance makes this filly very dangerous despite the 30-1 morning line, which appears generous.​

Oh represents Michael Maker with Ricardo Santana Jr and brings a 122-pound weight assignment. Maker's ability to have horses ready for stakes spots makes this filly worth strong consideration. The rail draw could be beneficial or problematic depending on how the pace develops.​

Secondary Choices

Fancy Lights for George Weaver gets Hall of Famer John Velazquez, providing a second strong entry for the Weaver barn. The decision to split rides suggests confidence in both fillies.

Braverthanubelieve for John Ortiz gets Joel Rosario and has shown improvement in recent starts. This filly won on debut and could move forward.​

Unmiztaken gets Manuel Franco for Keri Brion and has shown competitive form.

Betting Strategy

This large field offers excellent exotic opportunities. The combination of Weaver's fillies with the Rice/Prat entry creates multiple win possibilities. Consider exacta boxes with the top selections and trifectas spreading to include Fancy Lights and Braverthanubelieve.

Selections

Win: She's Country
Place: Hot Currency
Show: Oh

Race 9 – Remsen Stakes (Grade 2, 1 1/8 Miles, 2-Year-Olds)

Post Time: 3:08 PM

Pace Analysis

This Grade 2 test for juveniles stretching to 1 1/8 miles should feature moderate early pace with no clear speed-of-the-speed. Courting has shown ability to set the pace, while Igniter could press early. The moderate pace should set up well for horses with stamina and a strong closing kick. The first two-turn experience for most of these colts adds intrigue, as breeding and running style will be tested over this classic distance.​

Key Contenders

Renegade emerges as the selection in this competitive Grade 2 event. This Todd Pletcher-trained Into Mischief colt gets Irad Ortiz Jr, whose dominance continues nationally. Renegade was controversially disqualified from first to second after a head victory over Paladin in their last meeting, though many observers felt the demotion was harsh. More importantly, Renegade showed a powerful closing kick in that mile race, suggesting the added distance of this 1 1/8-mile test will suit perfectly. As a son of Into Mischief out of the Curlin mare Spice Is Nice (herself a TDN Rising Star), Renegade possesses the pedigree to handle classic distances. Pletcher's record in the Remsen is formidable, and this colt appears to be peaking at the right time.​

Talkin represents trainer Danny Gargan and gets Kendrick Carmouche, who has been riding confidently at the meet (16 wins, 17.2%). This Good Magic colt ran a solid second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes, finishing behind quality company. Gargan specifically targeted this race rather than the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, suggesting confidence in the colt's ability to handle the distance. Talkin should appreciate the stretch to two turns and possesses the tactical speed to overcome the outside post 11 draw. Handicappers noted that if 2023 serves as a playbook, Gargan could get this victory.​

Courting brings the most impressive pedigree in the field as a full brother to Grade 1 winner Clairiere (by Curlin out of Bernardini mare Cavorting). This $5 million Keeneland September yearling purchase for Todd Pletcher gets Hall of Famer John Velazquez. Courting dominated open maidens last out, winning by 2.5 lengths while setting the pace. His breeding screams stamina, and the step up to 1 1/8 miles should suit perfectly. The concern is whether he'll get enough pace pressure to set up his closing kick.​

Secondary Choices

Paladin represents Chad Brown with Flavien Prat, a combination that has dominated at Aqueduct. This $1.9 million Gun Runner colt looked impressive when winning the controversial race against Renegade, though he was awarded the victory via disqualification. Brown noted that Paladin has grown into himself and looks magnificent. The breeding suggests classic distance potential, and this will be only his second career start, leaving room for significant improvement. The post 2 draw could be problematic with 12 runners.​

Igniter returns from a three-month layoff for Richard Dutrow Jr with Manuel Franco riding. This Volatile colt impressed when winning by open lengths at this distance in September, with Courting a distant fourth in that race. The layoff raises questions, though his works at Belmont Park have been solid. If he returns to his September form, Igniter could surprise at a price.​

Balboa brings the most racing experience in the field with five previous starts for trainer Brittany Russell. Ricardo Santana Jr takes the mount on this colt, who has competed in two Grade 1 events. The class he's faced could help, though he may lack the pure talent of the top contenders.​

Longshots

I Did I Did for Mike Maker with Joel Rosario could offer value as a closer if the pace becomes contested.

Probably Dreaming brings three victories to this spot, the most accomplished record in the field, though the level of competition he's faced raises questions.

Betting Strategy

This competitive Grade 2 offers excellent exotic opportunities. Renegade represents the best combination of current form, breeding, and connections. Consider exacta and trifecta combinations with Renegade, Talkin, and Courting on top, spreading underneath to include Paladin and Igniter.

Selections

Win: Renegade
Place: Talkin
Show: Courting

Race 10 – Cigar Mile Handicap (Grade 2, 1 Mile)

Post Time: 3:37 PM

Pace Analysis

This Grade 2 one-turn mile should feature a clear pace scenario with Mika likely showing early speed to establish position. Phileas Fogg has shown he can press or stalk, while Bishops Bay possesses tactical speed. The pace should be moderate through the first half-mile before accelerating significantly in the final three furlongs. This scenario favors horses that can position well early and deliver a sustained run.​

Key Contenders

Phileas Fogg emerges as the deserving favorite for this Grade 2 event. Trainer Gustavo Rodriguez has this 5-year-old Astern gelding in peak form, as evidenced by his three-quarter-length second in the Grade 2 Woodward over nine furlongs last out. Phileas Fogg boasts a stellar 5-3-2-0 record at Aqueduct, including victories in the Listed Queens County and Listed Excelsior, plus his breakthrough Grade 2 Suburban win at Saratoga. The cutback to one mile after seven consecutive starts around two turns could be the key, as his last effort at this distance produced a 3.75-length romp in allowance optional claiming company. Joel Rosario takes the mount and Phileas Fogg draws post 6 with blinkers ON at 125 pounds. Rodriguez has found the winning formula with this gelding, who has hit the board in eight of nine starts since being claimed for $62,500. The one-turn mile configuration at Aqueduct should allow Phileas Fogg to secure ideal position stalking Mika before taking command in the stretch.​

Bishops Bay represents the Brad Cox barn and gets Flavien Prat, whose 38.5% win rate at Aqueduct makes this combination extremely dangerous. KAS Stables purchased this 5-year-old Uncle Mo gelding for a sale-topping $1.3 million at Keeneland November and has kept him with Cox. Bishops Bay captured the Grade 3 Forty Niner over this course and distance by three-quarters of a length in his most recent start, earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure. He owns two one-turn mile stakes victories at Aqueduct (Westchester G3 and Forty Niner G3) plus a victory in the Salvator Mile G3 at Monmouth around two turns. The consistency is remarkable—only one finish worse than second in 12 lifetime starts. Cox has been exceptional at Aqueduct with six wins from 18 starters. Bishops Bay drew post 7 and carries 125 pounds. The concern is whether he's fast enough to beat Phileas Fogg, as the Beyer and Brisnet numbers favor the favorite.​

Crazy Mason brings a powerful closing kick for trainer Gregory Sacco with Irad Ortiz Jr in the irons. This 4-year-old Coal Front colt earned his first graded stakes win in the Grade 3 Ack Ack at Churchill Downs, wearing down a rival in deep stretch. Since then, he's hit the board in three of four starts, including a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Vosburgh going seven furlongs. Crazy Mason contests a route beyond sprinting for the first time since May, when he finished third in a mile-and-70-yard race at Monmouth. Sacco specifically targeted this race after the Vosburgh, giving the gelding a freshener to have him sharp. At 124 pounds from post 4, Crazy Mason could benefit if the pace becomes contested, though Ortiz's recent dominance suggests he'll secure a good trip.​

Secondary Choices

Pentathlon represents the Hall of Fame combination of Claude McGaughey III and Junior Alvarado. This 4-year-old has been competitive at graded stakes level and could offer value if the pace sets up favorably. The 118-pound impost helps his chances.​

Doc Sullivan may scratch if the track remains fast, as connections prefer wet surfaces. This 4-year-old is 4-for-7 on off tracks but questionable on fast going.​

Mika returns to trainer Mike Maker and gets Manuel Franco. This 3-year-old has dominated his last two starts with gate-to-wire performances, and his early speed could help set up the race. However, stepping up significantly in class raises questions.​

Betting Strategy

This Grade 2 offers strong value opportunities despite Phileas Fogg's short price. The cutback in distance after sustained success around two turns suggests he's perfectly spotted. Consider exacta and trifecta combinations with Phileas Fogg on top over Bishops Bay and Crazy Mason. The Prat factor on Bishops Bay makes him worth using as a win bet in a separate play.

Selections

Win: Phileas Fogg
Place: Bishops Bay
Show: Crazy Mason

Race 11 – New York Stallion Series Stakes (7 Furlongs, 2-Year-Olds)

Post Time: 4:07 PM

Pace Analysis

This $500,000 stakes for New York-sired juveniles concludes the card with a large field of 16. The race should feature contested early pace with multiple horses showing speed. Parker Boone will likely establish early position from post 2, while Spirit of New York and others possess tactical ability. The seven-furlong distance should favor horses with speed and the ability to sustain their runs.​

Key Contenders

Parker Boone represents the clear class of this field and will likely go off as a short-priced favorite. The Cash is King and LC Racing runner for trainer Butch Reid Jr earned a field-best 77 Beyer Speed Figure when demolishing maiden special weight company by 12.25 lengths on debut at Parx. This $100,000 Solomini colt zipped through splits of 22.36 and 46.29 en route to a final time of 1:12.36, showing both early speed and sustained run. Reid specifically targeted this lucrative New York Stallion Series race from the summer, carefully managing the colt's training to have him peaked for this spot. Mychel Sanchez returns after the impressive debut victory. Reid noted that Parker Boone is a big, powerfully built horse with exceptional conformation and a good head on his shoulders, suggesting he won't be bothered by the occasion. The post 2 draw should allow for a clean break and early positioning.​

Spirit of New York represents excellent value for trainer Adam Rice with Irad Ortiz Jr taking the mount. This Honest Mischief gelding has won the Grade 3 Bertram F. Bongard Stakes against state-breds and finished a strong fourth in the Notebook Stakes last out. Most importantly, Spirit of New York makes his dirt debut after four turf starts. The class he's shown on grass could translate effectively to the main track, and the Rice barn clearly has confidence making this surface switch. Ortiz's dominance as the nation's leading money-winning rider provides a significant edge. The post 7 draw gives Ortiz options. If Spirit of New York handles dirt, he could spring a mild upset at a square price.​

Muscle Shoals brings a perfect 2-for-2 record for trainer M. Anthony Ferraro. This Redesdale gelding won on debut by two lengths, then returned to dominate by 5.5 lengths in the Tin Cup Chalice Stakes. Ferraro praised the gelding's improvement and noted how well he handled rating tactics last out before exploding when asked. The barn has been having an excellent season, and Muscle Shoals worked strongly with stablemates Hey Pal and Combat Mission in preparation. Luis Perez takes the mount.​

Secondary Choices

Froutien represents Todd Pletcher with Hall of Famer John Velazquez and brings blinkers ON for this start. The Pletcher/Velazquez combination demands respect in any stakes race. The equipment change and class of connections make this colt worth including.​

Hey Pal provides Ferraro with a second strong entry. This Bustin Stones gelding dominated last out by 12.25 lengths over a mile, earning a 63 Beyer. Ferraro specifically noted that distance helped Hey Pal, suggesting the cutback to seven furlongs might not be ideal.​

Chummers for Raymond Handal gets Flavien Prat from post 1, and Prat's 38.5% win rate makes this colt worth consideration.

Diamond Child represents Melanie Giddings with Ricardo Santana Jr riding from post 4.

Longshots

True Legend for George Weaver with Manuel Franco could offer value if the pace sets up right.

Sicilian Dancer brings experience and gets Luis Rivera Jr for Michelle Nevin.

Betting Strategy

Parker Boone will likely be heavily favored, making exacta and trifecta plays more valuable than win betting. Consider exactas with Parker Boone on top of Spirit of New York and Muscle Shoals. For deeper payoffs, structure trifectas using Parker Boone and Spirit of New York on top, with Muscle Shoals, Froutien, and Hey Pal underneath.

Selections

Win: Parker Boone
Place: Spirit of New York
Show: Muscle Shoals

Jockey Notes and Insights

Flavien Prat continues his dominance at the Aqueduct winter meet with an exceptional 38.5% win rate (35 wins from 91 starts) and over $2 million in earnings. Prat leads all jockeys at the meet and brings his mounts on rides including Layered (Race 4), El Grande O (Race 5), Bishops Bay (Race 10), Hot Currency (Race 8), My Mitole (Race 7), and Chummers (Race 11). His tactical brilliance and ability to secure ideal trips make him particularly effective on the Aqueduct main track. Prat's partnership with Chad Brown horses has been especially productive, and he's winning graded stakes at a remarkable rate.​

Irad Ortiz Jr leads all North American jockeys in earnings with over $39.2 million in 2025, recently breaking his own single-season earnings record. At Aqueduct, Ortiz has strong statistics and brings his “A” game with mounts including Zany (Race 3), Despo's Dream (Race 4), Subrogate (Race 5), Crazy Mason (Race 10), She's Country (Race 8), Renegade (Race 9), and Spirit Of New York (Race 11). His recent hot streak and ability to win on any running style make him formidable. Ortiz has been particularly effective in stakes races with a 43% win rate over the last 10 days.​

Manuel Franco has 18 wins from 113 starts at the meet (15.9%) and rides for multiple top barns. His mounts include Princip (Race 1), Mila Candy (Race 4), Just Beat The Odds (Race 5), Finestkind (Race 7), Unmiztaken (Race 8), Igniter (Race 9), Mika (Race 10), and True Legend (Race 11). Franco's familiarity with the Aqueduct surface and his aggressive riding style make him dangerous on any mount.​

Kendrick Carmouche has 16 wins from 93 starts (17.2%) and brings consistency to his mounts. He rides Brave Buck (Race 1), Stream It (Race 2), Combat Mission (Race 11), Talkin (Race 9), and Dreamlike (Race 7). Carmouche's ability to rate horses and deliver them at the right time suits the Aqueduct surface.​

John Velazquez returns to Aqueduct for key stakes mounts despite limited starts at the meet (5 wins from 33 starts, 15.2%). The Hall of Famer rides Believable (Race 3), Practical Lov (Race 4), Landing Craft (Race 7), Fancy Lights (Race 8), Courting (Race 9), Brazenly (Race 10), and Froutien (Race 11). Velazquez's big-race experience makes him particularly effective in stakes company.​

Joel Rosario brings his considerable talent to key mounts including Buttah (Race 7), Braverthanubelieve (Race 8), I Did I Did (Race 9), and Phileas Fogg (Race 10). Rosario has shown excellent tactical ability and wins at 16.7% when riding at Aqueduct.​

Ricardo Santana Jr has 10 wins from 101 starts at the meet (9.9%) but excels in stakes company. His mounts include Divine Leader (Race 1), Meg's Foxy Grey (Race 4), Land D'oro (Race 7), Oh (Race 8), Balboa (Race 9), and Diamond Child (Race 11).​

Jose Lezcano continues solid form with 14 wins from 82 starts (17.1%). He rides Army Gal (Race 4), Acoustic Ave (Race 5), Life And Times (Race 7), and Take A Stance (Race 11).​

Junior Alvarado brings his talent to key mounts including Double Act (Race 2), Playa Del Mar (Race 7), Day One Starter (Race 9), and Pentathlon (Race 10). His 14.3% win rate at the meet includes strong performances in stakes races.​

Christopher Elliott has shown competence with 7 wins from 69 starts (10.1%) and rides O P Firecracker (Race 1), Shilling (Race 3), A. P. Slingshot (Race 6), Chambersville (Race 9), and Sunday Boy (Race 11).​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Linda Rice dominates the Aqueduct winter meet with 19 wins from 67 starts, banking over $902,000 in earnings. Rice's success comes from strong stable management and the ability to place horses where they can succeed. She saddles multiple horses across the card including Brave Buck (Race 1), Despo's Dream and Army Gal (Race 4), El Grande O and Acoustic Ave (Race 5), Lady Meringue (Race 6), Waitlist and Dreamlike (Race 7), and Hot Currency (Race 8). Rice's partnership with Irad Ortiz Jr has been particularly effective, and her fillies have shown consistent improvement.​

Chad C. Brown has 11 wins from 37 starts at the meet with nearly $946,000 in earnings despite a smaller stable presence. Brown's quality over quantity approach shows in stakes placements including Schoolyardsuperman and Mr. Miracle (Race 2), Concurrently (Race 3), and Layered (Race 4). His partnership with Flavien Prat has been exceptional, and Brown horses typically improve with each start. His success in juvenile stakes makes his entries must-use in exotics.​

Todd A. Pletcher brings eight Demoiselle Stakes victories to Race 3 with entries Zany and Believable. Pletcher also saddles multiple entries in the Remsen Stakes (Race 9) including Courting, Renegade, and Grittiness. His ability to have multiple horses competitive in the same race demonstrates the depth of his operation. Pletcher horses often peak in these December prep races.​

Brad H. Cox has been exceptional at Aqueduct despite limited starts, winning at 33% (6 wins from 18 starts). Cox saddles Bishops Bay in the Cigar Mile (Race 10), who he's kept after the horse's recent sale for $1.3 million. Cox's attention to detail and ability to have horses ready for specific targets makes him dangerous.​

William I. Mott continues his Hall of Fame career with quality entries including Double Act (Race 2), Practical Lov (Race 4), Playa Del Mar (Race 7), and Kat Stormy (Race 6). Mott's horses typically improve with racing and excel in routes.​

Michael J. Maker has shown strong form when targeting specific spots. He saddles Fire Agate (Race 6), Oh (Race 8), I Did I Did (Race 9), and Mika (Race 10). Maker's ability to have horses ready for stakes competition makes his entries worth respecting.​

George Weaver saddles multiple horses in the New York Stallion Series races including Fancy Lights and She's Country (Race 8), plus True Legend (Race 11). Weaver's success with New York-bred stakes makes his entries dangerous in state-restricted races.​

Gregory D. Sacco has shown consistent ability to compete at stakes level. He saddles O P Firecracker (Race 1), Just Beat The Odds (Race 5), and Crazy Mason (Race 10). Sacco's patience in bringing horses along and targeting specific races has proven effective.​

M. Anthony Ferraro enjoyed an excellent season at Finger Lakes and brings three horses to Race 11: Muscle Shoals, Hey Pal, and Combat Mission. Ferraro's decision to ship in multiple entries suggests confidence in their ability to compete at this level.​

Amelia J. Green has shown competence in placing horses, with entries including Landing Craft (Race 7) and Ivy Girl (Race 3).

Miguel Clement saddles Land D'oro (Race 7) and Tahila (Race 6), showing consistent form with both horses.

Danny Gargan specifically targeted the Remsen Stakes (Race 9) with Talkin rather than the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, suggesting confidence in the colt's two-turn ability.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Race-by-Race Value Opportunities

Race 3 (Demoiselle Stakes): Concurrently at 3-1 represents exceptional value given the Chad Brown/Flavien Prat combination and her fitness advantage from training at Belmont. With Zany likely going off as a short-priced favorite facing distance questions, exacta combinations with Concurrently on top of Believable and Zany offer strong return potential. Consider a $2 exacta box with 4-6 and a $1 trifecta 4,6/4,6/2,3 for coverage.

Race 7 (Allowance): My Mitole with Flavien Prat provides value as Prat's win percentage elevates any horse he rides. The weight break and closing style could produce a square price. Consider exacta wheels with My Mitole on top of Land d'Oro, Waitlist, and Commuted.

Race 8 (NY Stallion Series – Fillies): Hot Currency at 30-1 morning line represents tremendous value given Linda Rice's meet dominance and Flavien Prat's riding. The morning line appears generous for the Rice/Prat combination. Consider straight exactas with She's Country over Hot Currency and vice versa, plus trifectas using both over the field.

Race 9 (Remsen Stakes): Renegade offers value over the likely shorter-priced Paladin and Courting given his powerful closing kick and the Into Mischief/Curlin breeding that screams distance. Consider exacta combinations with Renegade and Talkin on top, with Courting and Paladin underneath.

Race 10 (Cigar Mile): Phileas Fogg should win, but Bishops Bay with Prat provides value for place and show betting. Consider vertical exactas with Phileas Fogg on top of Bishops Bay and Crazy Mason, plus place and show betting on Bishops Bay.

Race 11 (NY Stallion Series – Males): Spirit of New York offers value against the likely heavy favorite Parker Boone. The class Spirit of New York has shown on turf combined with Irad Ortiz Jr could produce a mild upset. Consider exacta combinations with Parker Boone and Spirit of New York in both directions.

Multi-Race Wager Strategies

Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4): Consider keying Brave Buck in Race 1, spreading Mr. Miracle and Schoolyardsuperman in Race 2, using Concurrently and Believable in Race 3, and spreading Layered, Despo's Dream, and Practical Lov in Race 4. This provides coverage while focusing on value.

Mandatory Payout Pick 5 (Races 3-7): This sequence offers excellent opportunity with the mandatory payout. Consider:

  • Race 3: Concurrently, Believable, Zany
  • Race 4: Layered, Despo's Dream, Practical Lov
  • Race 5: El Grande O, Subrogate, Acoustic Ave
  • Race 6: Fire Agate, Tahila, Kat Stormy
  • Race 7: My Mitole, Land d'Oro, Waitlist, Commuted

Late Pick 5 (Races 7-11): This sequence includes three stakes races and offers strong value potential:

  • Race 7: My Mitole, Land d'Oro, Waitlist
  • Race 8: She's Country, Hot Currency, Oh
  • Race 9: Renegade, Talkin, Courting, Paladin
  • Race 10: Phileas Fogg, Bishops Bay
  • Race 11: Parker Boone, Spirit of New York, Muscle Shoals

Pick 3 (Races 9-11): This stakes-heavy sequence offers excellent value:

  • Race 9: Renegade, Talkin, Courting
  • Race 10: Phileas Fogg, Bishops Bay
  • Race 11: Parker Boone, Spirit of New York, Muscle Shoals

Flavien Prat Special

Prat's exceptional 38.5% win rate at the meet makes him worth following throughout the card. Consider a rolling Prat parlay or separate win bets on his best chances: Layered (Race 4), El Grande O (Race 5), Fire Agate (Race 6), My Mitole (Race 7), and Bishops Bay (Race 10).

Irad Ortiz Jr Hot Streak Play

Ortiz's current dominance makes his mounts worth strong consideration. Focus on his best opportunities: Zany (Race 3), Despo's Dream (Race 4), Crazy Mason (Race 10), She's Country (Race 8), Renegade (Race 9), and Spirit Of New York (Race 11).

Stakes Exacta Boxes

Consider $2 exacta boxes in each stakes race:

  • Race 3: 4-6 ($4 total)
  • Race 5: 1-6 ($4 total)
  • Race 9: 9-11 ($4 total)
  • Race 10: 6-7 ($4 total)

Total investment: $16 for potential solid returns in Grade 2 and Grade 3 events.

Best Bet of the Day

Phileas Fogg (Race 10 – Cigar Mile) represents the best combination of class, current form, and race setup. The cutback to one mile after success around two turns positions him perfectly, and his stellar Aqueduct record (5-3-2-0) demonstrates he loves this track. While the price will be short, he offers the best chance for a win on the card.

Longshot Special

Hot Currency (Race 8) at 30-1 morning line offers tremendous value given the Linda Rice/Flavien Prat combination. Rice leads all trainers at the meet while Prat dominates the jockey standings. This 2-year-old filly deserves strong consideration in exactas and trifectas at that price.

Good luck with your wagering on this exceptional card of racing at Aqueduct!

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