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Aqueduct presents an outstanding 10-race card headlined by five stakes races including three graded events. The Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes for three-year-old fillies, Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes and Grade 3 Long Island Stakes anchor the late Pick 5 sequence that begins in Race 6. The Dwyer Stakes and Pumpkin Pie Stakes add quality depth to this premier Saturday program. A Pick 6 carryover of $22,632 makes this an attractive betting day. The card features elite trainers Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher, with jockey Flavien Prat riding momentum after setting a NYRA single-card record with seven wins last Sunday.​​

Weather and Track Conditions

Current conditions show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 54-58 degrees. The main track is listed as Fast while both turf courses are Firm. The outer turf rail is positioned at 27 feet for the Hill Prince Stakes. Recent track trends indicate all surfaces have been playing fairly with no significant biases. Wind conditions are moderate from the south at approximately 26 mph. No weather concerns are anticipated that would impact turf racing.​

Race 1 – New York-Bred Fillies and Mares Allowance Optional Claiming

Post Time: 11:40 AM

Key Contenders

Collect the Data enters as the Chad Brown-trained favorite with Manuel Franco aboard. Brown runners in allowance spots typically command respect, and this filly drops into state-bred company after facing open competition. The class relief should prove significant at a one-mile distance that suits her running style.​

Mitole’s Girl ships from Michelle Giangiulio’s barn with Ricardo Santana Jr. taking the mount. The daughter of Mitole brings tactical speed and has shown consistency in similar company. Her ability to press or lead gives her multiple winning scenarios.​

Fast and Frisky represents the Jorge Abreu barn and was scratched from recent starts before being entered here. Christopher Elliott handles the riding assignment. Her training pattern suggests connections have been waiting for the right spot.​

Secondary Choices

Ah Ca Ira drops down for Flavien Prat, who continues his hot streak after the record-setting seven-win performance. The three-year-old filly gets a weight advantage against older rivals and the class drop into the claiming option makes her dangerous.​

Sweetest Princess for Linda Rice has shown ability in this level previously and gets Jose Lezcano in the irons. The barn knows how to place their horses and the two-pound weight allowance helps.​

Pace Analysis

Mitole’s Girl and Fast and Frisky figure to contest the early lead, which should create a moderate to quick opening half-mile. Collect the Data can sit comfortably in third or fourth, with the pace setup favoring her closing kick. The one-mile distance on the main track typically favors horses with tactical speed at Aqueduct.​

Selections

Win: Collect the Data

Place: Mitole’s Girl

Show: Ah Ca Ira

Race 2 – Allowance Optional Claiming Turf Sprint

Post Time: 12:10 PM

Key Contenders

Vacation Dance brings class from the Brad Cox barn with Flavien Prat riding. Cox ships in selectively to New York and when he does, the horses typically fire. This represents a slight class drop and the five-year-old has tactical speed for the six-furlong outer turf distance.​

Gaslight Dancer trained by Richard Dutrow Jr. draws Joel Rosario for the mount. The five-year-old has been facing tougher competition and this represents a winnable spot. Rosario’s presence indicates strong confidence from connections.​

Bergen from Joe Sharp’s barn gets Manuel Franco aboard. The four-year-old has been knocking on the door in similar spots and the rider upgrade signals readiness.​

Secondary Choices

Launch Control represents Keri Brion with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. The gelding has been competitive in this level and brings tactical speed to the sprint distance.​

Cyclonite ships from Mark Casse’s barn with Dylan Davis handling the reins. Casse has a strong reputation with turf sprinters and this three-year-old still has upside.​

Pace Analysis

Multiple horses possess early speed, creating a likely contentious early pace. Bergen, Vacation Dance, and Launch Control all have the ability to be forwardly placed. This setup favors horses with tactical speed who can sit just off the leaders and pounce in the stretch. The six-furlong outer turf distance plays to speed but not necessarily wire-to-wire types when the pace is contested.​

Selections

Win: Vacation Dance

Place: Gaslight Dancer

Show: Bergen

Race 3 – Dwyer Stakes

STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $200,000. Dwyer Stakes. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $200 each which should accompany the nomination; $1,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,000 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $1,000 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. 122 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstakes allowed 2 lbs.; of a Sweepstakes in 2025 allowed 4 lbs. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, October 25, 2025 with 13 Nominations.​

Post Time: 12:40 PM

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

This shapes as a fascinating pace scenario featuring two distinct frontrunners in Tip Top Thomas and potentially Crudo, both trained by Todd Pletcher. The one-mile distance at Aqueduct traditionally favors horses with tactical speed, and this field presents multiple pace possibilities. Disco Time has shown versatility in his running style, pressing early in some races but demonstrating a potent closing kick when rated off the pace, as evidenced by his Lecomte Stakes victory where he rallied from over ten lengths back. The pace setup appears moderate to contested early, which could set up perfectly for Disco Time’s late-running style while testing the stamina of the frontrunners.​

Dream On brings Grade 3-winning credentials from his Penn Mile score on turf, suggesting tactical versatility that could prove valuable in this dirt assignment. Stars and Stripes enters as a bit of an enigma, having graduated impressively by 10 1/2 lengths in his maiden victory but trainer Bill Mott has acknowledged the colt’s preference for turf surfaces. Light Forever represents the class drop and brings speed from his regional allowance successes.​​

Disco Time

Brad Cox sends out the undefeated three-year-old colt as the morning line favorite at 6-5, and deservedly so based on his impressive resume. The Not This Time colt enters with a perfect 4-0-0-0 record and earnings exceeding $430,000. His progression has been remarkable, winning his debut at Churchill Downs by 3 3/4 lengths before taking an allowance by 3 1/2 lengths over the same surface.​

His Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes victory at Fair Grounds demonstrated significant class and versatility. After a troubled start from post 11 and dropping more than ten lengths back, Disco Time unleashed a powerful late rally to collar Built and Innovator in deep stretch, winning by a neck. While the 77 Beyer Speed Figure was modest, handicappers should note he won despite the sloppy, sealed surface, which may not have suited his running style. His subsequent performance in the Grade 3 St. Louis Derby at Fairmount Park proved even more impressive, romping to a 5 1/2-length victory and posting a career-high 102 Beyer Speed Figure.​

Florent Geroux retains the mount, and the Cox-Geroux partnership has been exceptional throughout 2025, including dual Breeders Cup victories. The tactical versatility Disco Time showed in the Lecomte suggests he can adapt to any pace scenario. If Tip Top Thomas and Crudo engage early, Disco Time can sit comfortably in third or fourth, conserve energy, and unleash his potent finish. The one-mile distance appears ideal, as he’s won at both a mile and 1 1/16 miles with authority.​

The only concern is the Lasix prohibition, though modern three-year-olds rarely show significant regression without the medication. Cox has kept him fresh since the St. Louis Derby in late September, providing ample time to prepare for this assignment. The breeding suggests stamina and class, being by Not This Time out of the stakes-winning Jump Start mare Disco Chick.​

Tip Top Thomas

Todd Pletcher’s Volatile colt brings an impressive three-race winning streak into the Dwyer, making him a formidable challenger despite the morning line odds of 2-1. His progression through the summer has been steady and professional, capturing an optional claiming allowance at Aqueduct by 3 1/4 lengths traveling this exact one-mile distance in May.​

The Grade 3 Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis proved his class credentials, as Tip Top Thomas went gate-to-wire to defeat Grade 2 Rebel Stakes winner Coal Battle by half a length, setting a track record in the process. The performance demonstrated both tactical speed and stamina at 1 1/16 miles. His most recent victory came in the Listed Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx Racing, where he again led throughout but had to dig in gamely to hold off the late-closing Fact by a head in 1:42.50 for 1 1/16 miles.​

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez has developed strong chemistry with this colt, piloting him to both stakes victories. The partnership with Pletcher, who seeks his fourth Dwyer Stakes victory, adds significant confidence to this entry. Tip Top Thomas is a half-brother to dual graded stakes-placed Dua and multiple stakes-winner Gray Attempt, suggesting the class and stamina run deep in the female family.​

The concern centers on pace positioning. If Crudo engages Tip Top Thomas through contested early fractions, both frontrunners could compromise each other, setting up the perfect scenario for Disco Time’s closing kick. The cutback to one mile from 1 1/16 miles could actually benefit his tactical speed, allowing Velazquez to dictate comfortable fractions. His past success at Aqueduct over this exact distance in May indicates familiarity with the surface and configuration.​

The colt worked a half-mile alongside stablemate Scalable in 49.66 over the Belmont dirt training track, suggesting sharpness and readiness. At 122 pounds with no weight allowances, he faces the full burden, but his recent form suggests he’s capable of handling it. The breeding by Volatile out of a Consolidator mare suggests both speed and durability.​

Dream On

Mark Casse sends out this intriguing three-year-old colt as the third choice on the morning line at 6-5. The dual Hall of Fame trainer brings strong credentials to any stakes race, and Dream On has shown flashes of ability despite a somewhat inconsistent record. His Grade 3 Penn Mile victory over yielding turf at Penn National in June demonstrated genuine stakes ability, upsetting stablemate Mi Bago in the process.​

Javier Castellano takes the mount, providing aggressive tactical riding that could prove valuable in this competitive field. The partnership with Casse suggests connections believe the dirt surface and one-mile distance suit this colt’s abilities, despite his turf success. The morning line odds of 6-5 alongside Disco Time suggest bookmakers see him as a legitimate threat.​

The concern revolves around recent form and class level. While the Penn Mile victory proved his stakes credentials, the Grade 3 designation came on turf over a yielding surface, which plays differently than Aqueduct’s main track. His ability to translate that form to dirt remains questionable, particularly against the likes of Disco Time and Tip Top Thomas who have proven themselves emphatically on the main track.​

Castellano’s aggressive style could see Dream On sitting in a stalking position, perhaps third or fourth early, before making his move on the turn. The one-mile distance should suit if he possesses the tactical speed to secure a favorable position without expending excessive energy. Casse’s patient development suggests this colt has been pointed specifically for this assignment, and the trainer’s record in stakes races demands respect.​

Stars and Stripes

Bill Mott sends out this Not This Time colt with significant weight relief at 118 pounds, receiving a four-pound allowance as a non-winner of a sweepstakes in 2025. Jose Lezcano handles the riding assignment at morning line odds of 15-1, suggesting this is viewed as a developmental assignment rather than a serious win attempt.​

The colt graduated impressively in his second career start, demolishing maiden special weight foes by 10 1/2 lengths while traveling 1 1/8 miles at Belmont at the Big A in June. Makes Sense, the runner-up, won next time out, providing form validation. Stars and Stripes displayed tactical versatility in that maiden victory, pressing the pace before drawing clear with authority. The performance earned him TDN Rising Star designation.​

The significant concern centers on surface preference. Mott has stated unequivocally that Stars and Stripes “is turf” when asked about the colt’s optimal surface. This dirt assignment appears to be either a learning experience or an attempt to determine versatility before future turf assignments. The breeding by Not This Time out of the Quality Road mare Pearl River suggests potential for both surfaces, as his second dam is a full sister to champion two-year-old filly Sweet Catomine.​

The four-pound weight advantage provides tactical relief and could prove significant if the race develops into a stamina test. Stars and Stripes possesses enough early speed to secure a stalking position, and if the frontrunners engage through contested fractions, his closing kick could produce a minor award. At 15-1 morning line odds, he represents exotic value if connections have uncovered hidden dirt ability during training sessions.​

Light Forever

Guadalupe Preciado sends out this three-year-old gray colt who has been competing successfully at the regional level. Andy Hernandez retains the mount at morning line odds reflecting a significant class disadvantage against this field. Light Forever captured a $50,000 allowance race at Parx Racing in July, winning powerfully under Hernandez’s handling.​​

The partnership between Silver Trail Stables and Preciado has produced consistent results, with Light Forever showing improvement through the summer months. His tactical speed could see him pressing the early leaders or sitting in a stalking position, depending on how aggressively Tip Top Thomas and Crudo proceed through the opening fractions.​​

The concern is obvious – this represents a massive class hike from regional allowance competition to Listed stakes company against undefeated Grade 3 winners. While the four-pound weight allowance at 118 pounds provides some relief, the speed figure gap appears insurmountable. His best performances have come at longer distances, and the cutback to one mile may not suit his running style.​​

Light Forever could press early alongside Tip Top Thomas, but sustaining that effort against superior competition through a one-mile test appears unlikely. He might factor for minor awards if the pace melts down or if the top contenders encounter trouble, but expecting him to defeat horses of Disco Time’s caliber requires significant imagination. At projected longshot odds, he offers minimal exotic value given the quality of competition.​

Crudo

Todd Pletcher’s second entry brings intrigue as a lightly raced Justify colt with a 120-pound impost reflecting a two-pound weight allowance for non-graded stakes winners. Kendrick Carmouche handles the riding duties on this Bobby Flay and James Ventura homebred. Crudo captured the restricted Sir Barton Stakes in May at third asking, demolishing that field by 7 1/2 lengths with a powerful frontrunning performance.​

The bay colt ventured into deep waters for the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes at 10 furlongs in June at Saratoga Race Course, finishing off the board against classic-quality competition. Since that ambitious assignment, Crudo has tried turf racing three times, finishing fourth in each NYRA circuit stakes, most recently setting the pace before tiring late in the 11-furlong Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby Invitational on October 4 at Aqueduct.​

Pletcher assistant Byron Hampson noted that Crudo “ran super” on turf last time but “just got leg weary late and got caught,” suggesting the connections believe the colt possesses more ability than recent results indicate. The return to dirt and cutback to one mile could unlock improvement, particularly given his devastating Sir Barton victory demonstrated legitimate early speed and stamina on the main track.​

The concern involves conditioning and readiness. After three consecutive turf assignments, Crudo returns to dirt for the first time since the Belmont Stakes failure. The training pattern suggests connections have been searching for the right formula, and this dirt return represents either a calculated placement or desperation. His recent work alongside Scalable in 49.66 for a half-mile suggests fitness.​

Crudo is a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Sippican Harbor, indicating the class runs deep in the female family. The Justify breeding suggests stamina and power, though the one-mile distance might actually favor his tactical speed over routing distances where he’s faltered. If Crudo can establish comfortable early fractions alongside Tip Top Thomas without engaging in a speed duel, he could prove dangerous. However, Pletcher’s primary focus appears centered on Tip Top Thomas, making Crudo the secondary entry.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Disco Time holds the significant edge in recent speed figures, posting a career-high 102 Beyer in his St. Louis Derby romp. That figure towers over anything this field has produced recently and suggests he’s operating on a different level. His 77 Beyer in the Lecomte Stakes appears anomalous given the sloppy, sealed surface, and handicappers should forgive that regression.​

Tip Top Thomas has earned solid figures through his winning streak, though specific Beyer numbers for his Indiana Derby and Smarty Jones victories weren’t published in available sources. His gate-to-wire track record performance at Horseshoe Indianapolis suggests legitimate speed figures that would rate competitively with most stakes horses, though likely below Disco Time’s 102 career top.​

Dream On’s Grade 3 Penn Mile victory came on turf over a yielding surface, making speed figure translation to dirt difficult. Turf figures typically don’t correlate directly with dirt performances, creating uncertainty about his true ability on the main track. Stars and Stripes posted impressive maiden figures when winning by 10 1/2 lengths, but Mott’s admission that he’s primarily a turf horse suggests those figures may not translate to this assignment.​

The class analysis favors Disco Time and Tip Top Thomas significantly. Disco Time has defeated Grade 3 competition twice while remaining undefeated through four starts, demonstrating consistency alongside high-class performances. Tip Top Thomas has proven himself at the Grade 3 level in the Indiana Derby and earned Listed stakes victories, showing he belongs in this company.​

Dream On brings Grade 3 credentials from turf, creating uncertainty about dirt translation. Stars and Stripes is essentially a maiden winner stepping directly into Listed stakes company, representing a significant class hike despite his impressive graduation. Light Forever has competed exclusively at the regional allowance level, facing a massive class increase against this field. Crudo’s Sir Barton victory came in restricted company, and his subsequent failures in graded stakes and turf assignments suggest he’s outclassed here.​​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Aqueduct’s main track has been playing fairly recently with no significant bias favoring inside or outside posts. The one-mile distance at Aqueduct starts horses on the far turn, creating a one-turn configuration that traditionally favors speed and horses with tactical positioning ability. The run to the first turn is brief, meaning horses from outside posts must show early speed or tactical awareness to secure favorable positions.​

Post 1 for Tip Top Thomas appears advantageous given his frontrunning style. Velazquez can break alertly and immediately establish position on the rail without worrying about being trapped inside. The rail-to-rail journey suits pace-pressing tactics, and this post has produced winners in similar distance configurations throughout the meet.​

Post 2 for Disco Time creates slight complications for a late-running style. The inside position could see him trapped behind slower horses if the pace collapses or if horses drift in on the turn. However, Geroux is an experienced rider who knows when to tip outside early to secure a clear path. The post shouldn’t significantly impact his chances given his tactical versatility.​

Post 3 for Dream On provides flexibility for stalking tactics. Castellano can break alertly and slide into third or fourth position without using excessive energy. The middle post allows options if the pace develops quickly or if he needs to angle outside entering the stretch.​

Post 4 for Stars and Stripes is neutral. Lezcano can assess early pace developments and position accordingly. The outside-middle draw provides options without forcing immediate decisions.​

Post 5 for Light Forever is disadvantageous given his pace-pressing style. He’ll need to use energy to secure position from the outside, potentially compromising his stamina in the stretch. The outside post rarely benefits speed horses at this distance configuration.​

Post 6 for Crudo creates challenges for frontrunning tactics. Carmouche must break sharply and angle inward to establish position, using significant energy in the process. If Crudo attempts to press or lead, the outside post makes that mission more difficult. This post assignment may influence Pletcher to rate Crudo rather than send him for the lead.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The race presents an interesting wagering puzzle given the clear favorites but uncertain pace dynamics. Disco Time at projected 6-5 offers marginal value given his class advantage and superior speed figures, but underlays are rarely profitable long-term bets. However, his undefeated record, progression, and tactical versatility suggest he’s the superior horse who should prevail more than 55% of the time in this field.​

The win betting approach should center on Disco Time while recognizing the price offers limited value. Tip Top Thomas at 2-1 represents his primary competition and merits respect given Pletcher’s conditioning and the colt’s winning streak. A win bet on Tip Top Thomas creates a hedge position if pace dynamics favor frontrunners.​

Exotic wagering provides superior value opportunities. The exacta combining Disco Time on top with Tip Top Thomas, Dream On, and Stars and Stripes underneath creates coverage while maintaining faith in the favorite. A reverse exacta adding Tip Top Thomas on top with Disco Time second protects against pace scenario surprises. Boxing Disco Time and Tip Top Thomas in the exacta provides simple, effective coverage of the two most likely winners.​

The trifecta presents interesting value possibilities. Using Disco Time and Tip Top Thomas in the first two positions while spreading underneath with Dream On, Stars and Stripes, and potentially Crudo creates tickets ranging from $12 to $24 depending on coverage. Stars and Stripes at 15-1 morning line odds represents legitimate trifecta value if he can secure third position. The four-pound weight allowance and Mott’s training suggest he’s capable of earning a minor award even if dirt isn’t his optimal surface.​

A deeper trifecta play boxes Disco Time, Tip Top Thomas, and Dream On while adding Stars and Stripes and Light Forever to the third position. This creates a $30 ticket that provides full coverage of likely top-two finishers while spreading for value on the bottom. The expected payoff on a Disco Time-Tip Top Thomas-Stars and Stripes trifecta could reach 30-1 or higher given the longshot’s price.​

Superfecta wagering becomes viable given the small field size. A key box using Disco Time and Tip Top Thomas on top with all others underneath creates comprehensive coverage for minimal investment. The superfecta likely requires all four horses among the top four finishers, but Light Forever and Crudo appear vulnerable enough that four legitimate contenders should fill those positions.​

Rolling exotic opportunities exist given this race falls in the middle of the card. Using Disco Time and Tip Top Thomas in rolling doubles and pick three sequences provides strong anchors while managing ticket costs. The race falls within the mandatory payout Pick 5 sequence beginning in Race 3, creating additional pool value for multi-race bettors.​

Place and show betting offers minimal value given the short field and heavily favored top choices. Disco Time will be severely underlaid in the place and show pools, offering minimal return for significant risk. Tip Top Thomas place betting might return modest value, but exotic wagering provides superior risk-reward propositions in this competitive field.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Disco Time – The undefeated Brad Cox trainee holds every edge in this assignment including superior speed figures, proven class at the Grade 3 level, tactical versatility, and a hot rider in Florent Geroux. His career-best 102 Beyer from the St. Louis Derby towers over this field’s capabilities, and his progression suggests continued improvement. The pace setup should favor his late-running style, as Tip Top Thomas and potentially Crudo engage through the early stages while Disco Time conserves energy stalking in third or fourth position. Geroux’s tactical awareness allows position flexibility from post 2, and the one-mile distance appears ideal for unleashing his potent stretch kick. The only concern involves the Lasix prohibition, but modern three-year-olds rarely show significant regression. Cox has managed his campaign perfectly, freshening him since September to peak for this assignment. The 6-5 morning line odds offer limited value, but quality horses win races regardless of price. Disco Time appears destined to maintain his unbeaten record and establish himself as a legitimate stakes horse moving forward.​

Place: Tip Top Thomas – Todd Pletcher’s Volatile colt brings proven stakes credentials and a three-race winning streak that demands respect. His Grade 3 Indiana Derby victory defeating Grade 2 Rebel Stakes winner Coal Battle established his class credentials, while his game performance holding off late pressure in the Smarty Jones demonstrated determination. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez provides confident handling, and Pletcher seeks his fourth Dwyer Stakes victory. The concern centers on pace positioning, as aggressive early fractions could compromise his late effectiveness. However, Velazquez possesses the tactical awareness to dictate comfortable fractions from post 1, and the cutback to one mile from 1 1/16 miles might actually favor his natural speed. His past success at this exact distance at Aqueduct in May provides confidence about surface and configuration. The 2-1 morning line odds represent fair value for a legitimate threat to the favorite. If Disco Time encounters any trouble or fails to fire his best race, Tip Top Thomas possesses the class and determination to capitalize.​

Show: Stars and Stripes – Bill Mott’s Not This Time colt represents the value play in this field despite concerns about surface preference. His 10 1/2-length maiden romp demonstrated significant ability, and the four-pound weight allowance at 118 pounds provides tactical relief in a stamina test. While Mott has acknowledged the colt prefers turf, the breeding suggests potential for both surfaces, and this assignment likely serves dual purposes of assessment and development. Jose Lezcano provides competent handling, and at 15-1 morning line odds, Stars and Stripes offers significant show and exotic value. The race should develop with Tip Top Thomas and potentially Crudo engaging early while Disco Time stalks, creating perfect setup for a late closer to secure the show position. Stars and Stripes possesses the tactical speed to position within striking range without using excessive early energy. If the pace melts down through contested fractions, his closing kick could produce a meaningful result. The show price likely offers value above 2-1, making this a smart protection play in exactas and trifectas.​

Alternative Exotic Plays:

Exacta Box: Disco Time-Tip Top Thomas ($4 minimum bet)

Trifecta: Disco Time, Tip Top Thomas with Disco Time, Tip Top Thomas with Dream On, Stars and Stripes ($8 ticket)

Trifecta: Disco Time, Tip Top Thomas with Disco Time, Tip Top Thomas, Dream On with Dream On, Stars and Stripes, Crudo, Light Forever ($24 ticket for deeper coverage)

Superfecta Key Box: Disco Time, Tip Top Thomas with Disco Time, Tip Top Thomas, Dream On, Stars and Stripes with ALL ($7.20 ticket)

The race presents a clear favorite in Disco Time who appears poised to maintain his unbeaten record, while Tip Top Thomas provides legitimate competition with proven stakes credentials. The pace dynamics should favor late runners, making Disco Time’s chances even stronger. Exotic value exists with Stars and Stripes at longshot odds potentially securing third position if pace scenarios develop favorably.​

Race 4 – Pumpkin Pie Stakes

STAKES. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $150,000. Pumpkin Pie Stakes. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $150 each which should accompany the nomination; $750 to pass the entry box and an additional $750 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental nomination payment of $750 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. Three Year Olds: 122 lbs. Older: 125 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstakes in 2024-25 allowed 2 lbs.; of a Sweepstakes in 2025 allowed 4 lbs. A presentation will be made to the winning owner.​

Post Time: 1:10 PM

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

The seven-furlong distance at Aqueduct creates fascinating tactical dynamics, particularly when races start from the chute configuration. Recent track trends indicate a moderate speed bias on the main track, with front runners winning approximately 69% of races at this distance and pressers adding another 15%. The extended sprint distance demands efficient positioning through the first turn while conserving enough energy for the stretch drive.​​

This field presents multiple pace scenarios given the diverse running styles. Nic’s Style possesses tactical early speed and has shown versatility in her positioning, capable of pressing or leading as the race unfolds. Volleyballprincess brings legitimate early foot and could contest the lead from the outset given her frontrunning tendencies. Weigh the Risks has demonstrated tactical speed sufficient to secure stalking positions without excessive early exertion.​

The pace setup appears moderate to contested early, which could benefit closers if the frontrunners engage through aggressive fractions. However, the seven-furlong configuration typically favors horses positioned within striking distance entering the stretch rather than deep closers. The inside posts could prove advantageous given the chute start, allowing horses to establish position without using excessive energy.​​

Nic’s Style

Bill Mott sends out the defending Pumpkin Pie Stakes champion seeking to repeat her 2024 victory in this event. The five-year-old Florida-bred Uncaptured mare brings impressive credentials including three consecutive stakes victories following last year’s Pumpkin Pie score. Junior Alvarado retains the mount as morning line favorite, and the Mott-Alvarado partnership excels in these sprint stakes.​

Her 2024-25 campaign showcased steady progression through Florida-bred restricted competition. She captured the City of Ocala Florida Sire Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in December 2024, setting a stakes record of 1:21.84 for seven furlongs while defeating R Disaster by 2 1/2 lengths. The performance demonstrated both tactical speed and sustained stamina through the stretch. She continued her winning ways in the Minaret Stakes at Tampa Bay in February, covering six furlongs impressively.​

The Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes at Gulfstream Park in March represented career-best class, as Nic’s Style defeated open company by 6 1/2 furlongs. That victory validated her ability to compete beyond restricted Florida-bred ranks. However, her subsequent venture into elite company resulted in a second-place finish to champion Ways and Means in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes at Belmont Park on September 29. Rather than pushing her toward the Breeders Cup, connections wisely opted for this spot.​

The defending title creates intriguing angles both positive and negative. Mott’s patient approach with older fillies and mares typically produces peak performances in carefully selected spots. The seven-month break between February’s Hurricane Bertie and September’s Gallant Bloom suggests Mott was waiting for specific opportunities rather than racing frequently. Her morning workouts have been steady without spectacular times, indicating fitness maintenance rather than dramatic improvement.​

The breeding by Uncaptured out of the Magna Graduate mare Scat Singing suggests both speed and stamina for sprint distances. At 125 pounds, she carries full weight as an older mare without weight allowances. The morning line favoritism reflects her defending champion status and Mott’s strong reputation, but her last victory came in March, creating questions about current form. If she recaptures her early 2025 sharpness, she remains the horse to beat, but the layoff and recent Gallant Bloom defeat introduce legitimate concerns.​

Weigh the Risks

Chad Brown sends out this intriguing four-year-old Mendelssohn filly seeking her first black-type victory while making her stakes debut. Manuel Franco handles the riding assignment, and the Brown-Franco combination has produced exceptional results throughout the 2025 Aqueduct meet. At morning line odds of 9-5, she represents the primary threat to defending champion Nic’s Style.​

Her most recent performance proved eye-catching, capturing a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming at Saratoga by impressive margins under Dylan Davis. The victory came following a layoff, demonstrating Brown’s ability to have his horses fit and ready after time away from racing. Prior to that Saratoga score, she faced difficulty in previous starts, including a sixth-place finish in an allowance optional claiming in July.​

The four-year-old has compiled a respectable record of four wins from eleven career starts with two seconds, earning $286,821. Her tactical versatility allows positioning flexibility, as she’s won races pressing the pace and from stalking positions. The breeding by Mendelssohn, a noted dirt influence, out of a stakes-winning Broken Vow mare suggests capability at both sprint and route distances on main tracks.​

Brown’s decision to enter her in stakes company signals confidence in her current condition and ability level. His stable has dominated stakes racing at Aqueduct throughout 2025, and he typically spots his horses where they can succeed. The trainer’s 24% win rate with recent starters indicates strong current form across his barn. Franco’s aggressive riding style suits her tactical speed, and his familiarity with the Aqueduct main track provides advantages in positioning and timing his move.​

The concern centers on class level. While her allowance victory at Saratoga proved impressive, this represents a significant step up facing proven stakes winners like Nic’s Style. However, the lack of graded stakes winners in this field creates opportunities for fillies stepping up from allowance ranks. At 121 pounds with a four-pound allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, she receives tactical relief that could prove meaningful in a stamina test. If Brown has her cranked up to peak form, she represents the value play in this field.​

Scalable

Todd Pletcher’s four-year-old Quality Road filly returns from a layoff seeking to recapture the form that made her competitive in graded stakes company earlier in her career. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez handles the mount, and the Pletcher-Velazquez partnership excels with returning horses. At 125 pounds, she carries full weight as an older filly without allowances.​

The breeding by Quality Road out of a Smart Strike mare suggests both class and versatility for various distances and surfaces. Quality Road has proven himself among the premier sire influences for dirt racing, consistently producing stakes winners across distance ranges. Her female family possesses black type, indicating the class runs deep through the pedigree.​

Pletcher’s record with fillies and mares returning from layoffs merits attention. The Hall of Fame trainer excels at preparing horses for peak performances following extended breaks, particularly when paired with Velazquez. Her recent workouts at Belmont Park dirt training track have been steady, including a half-mile breeze alongside stablemate Crudo in 49.66 seconds. The work pattern suggests sharpness and readiness for this assignment.​

The concern revolves around the layoff and whether she retains the ability that made her competitive in better company previously. Stakes races for fillies and mares often feature dramatically different competition levels, and her past performances will determine whether this represents appropriate placement or an overambitious return. Pletcher typically enters horses where they belong, suggesting he believes she fits this level. However, first-race-back horses face inherent disadvantages against sharp rivals, particularly in sprint stakes where tactical speed and early positioning prove crucial.​

If Scalable fires her best race returning from the layoff, she possesses the class credentials to win this event. The Quality Road breeding and Pletcher’s training suggest she belongs in stakes company. However, the combination of layoff, full weight assignment, and facing sharp rivals creates obstacles that make her a risky win proposition. She merits serious consideration for exotic wagers as a potential upset threat if everything comes together.​

St. Benedicts Prep

Linda Rice sends out this five-year-old Flatter mare who has shown consistency in stakes company at the NYRA circuit. Jose Lezcano handles the riding assignment, continuing a productive partnership with Rice’s stable. At 123 pounds with a two-pound allowance for non-graded stakes winners, she receives slight weight relief.​

Her most recent performance came in the Autumn Days Stakes at Belmont at the Big A on October 19, where she competed over six furlongs on turf. The race drew a competitive field including Toupie, Roswell, and Danse Macabre, with St. Benedicts Prep closing as second choice at 2-1 morning line odds. The turf assignment represented a surface switch, as she has shown versatility competing on both dirt and grass throughout her career.​

Earlier in the year, she earned her first stakes victory in June under John Velazquez for Rice. The breakthrough performance validated years of consistent efforts in stakes company. Her career record shows steady placement in competitive events without dominant performances, suggesting she belongs in this class level but rarely overwhelms rivals. Rice’s expertise with state-bred horses and knowledge of the Aqueduct oval provides advantages in placement and preparation.​

The breeding by Flatter out of the Line mare Line suggests speed and precocity suitable for sprint distances. Flatter has proven himself an influential sire for dirt sprinters, consistently producing stakes winners. Her Claiborne Farm breeding indicates quality bloodlines and proper development.​

The concern centers on her ability to defeat higher-class rivals like Nic’s Style and the improving Weigh the Risks. While she has proven capable of winning stakes races, her victory came against weaker competition than she faces today. The step back to dirt from turf could provide positive impact if she prefers the main track. However, her recent form suggests she’s a solid stakes filly without the brilliance to dominate better company. At projected odds, she represents a logical underneath play in exotic wagers but faces significant challenges as a win candidate.​

Volleyballprincess

Louis Linder Jr. sends out this lightly raced three-year-old Mo Town filly who brings intriguing potential despite limited experience. Dylan Davis handles the riding assignment at 120 pounds, receiving a two-pound allowance as a three-year-old and four additional pounds for non-stakes winners in 2025. The total six-pound advantage at 120 pounds provides significant tactical relief.​

Her career highlight came in the Ruthless Stakes at Aqueduct on February 1, where she demolished rivals by ten lengths in dominant fashion. The performance proved exceptional despite jockey Eliseo Ruiz dropping his whip with three-sixteenths remaining. That she was cruising in front when the incident occurred demonstrated her superiority that day. The runner-up from that race has validated the form with subsequent strong efforts.​

Following the Ruthless victory, connections aimed higher with the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct in March. While specifics of that performance weren’t detailed in available sources, the pattern suggests she faced tougher competition and struggled to replicate her Ruthless dominance. Since then, a notable absence from racing raises questions about soundness, training issues, or development concerns that delayed her return.​

The breeding by Mo Town out of a Malibu Moon mare suggests both speed and stamina for sprint and middle distances. Mo Town stands at Ashford Stud for a modest $5,000 fee in 2025, making this filly’s early success encouraging for the stallion’s commercial viability. Her North Carolina breeding provides regional pride and creates appeal for connections.​

The significant concern involves the extended layoff since March and whether she has progressed or regressed during the absence. Three-year-old fillies improving rapidly often become formidable late in their sophomore seasons, but those experiencing setbacks can lose momentum entirely. Her workout pattern since the layoff will indicate readiness, though specific work details weren’t available in sources. If she has developed during her absence and returns sharp, the six-pound weight advantage creates real opportunities for upset. However, the layoff introduces significant risk that makes her difficult to trust despite her Ruthless brilliance.​

Taliesin

Jacinto Solis sends out this three-year-old filly who brings developing potential to her first significant stakes test. Frankie Pennington handles the riding assignment at 118 pounds, receiving a four-pound allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025 plus the four additional pounds three-year-olds get against older competition.​

Her recent racing included placement on the also-eligible list for the Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland in October, where she needed two scratches to draw into the race following a lopsided victory at Parx Racing. The Parx triumph demonstrated ability to dominate regional allowance competition, but the class gap between that level and graded stakes proved insurmountable when she scratched from the Raven Run.​

The decision to enter this Listed stakes event represents logical placement given her current development. Listed stakes at NYRA typically draw competitive fields without the depth of graded events, creating opportunities for developing three-year-olds to test themselves against better horses. The significant weight advantages at 118 pounds provide tactical relief that could help her compete against more accomplished rivals.​

The concern centers on class level and whether her regional success translates against proven stakes performers. While the Parx victory proved impressive, the quality of competition at regional tracks rarely matches NYRA circuit standards. She faces defending champion Nic’s Style and other proven stakes winners, creating a massive class challenge. Her breeding and connections suggest patient development rather than immediate brilliance, indicating this race serves more as a learning experience than serious win attempt. At projected longshot odds, she offers minimal value given the quality of opposition.​

Patricia Ann

Carlos Martin sends out this four-year-old filly who brings tactical speed and improving form. Kendrick Carmouche handles the riding assignment at 121 pounds, receiving a four-pound allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025. The Carmouche-Martin partnership has produced solid results at the NYRA circuit, and Carmouche’s familiarity with Aqueduct proves valuable.​

Her most recent effort came in the Noble Damsel Stakes at Belmont at the Big A on October 19, where she competed over one mile on turf. The race was won by Irish-bred Aussie Girl, with Patricia Ann finishing further back in the field. Prior to that turf assignment, she captured an optional claiming event at Saratoga in July, defeating Weigh the Risks by a length in seven-furlong dirt sprint. That victory demonstrated genuine stakes ability and suggested she belonged in better company.​

However, her form showed inconsistency following the Saratoga score. She finished off-the-board over sloppy and sealed going in August at Saratoga before her turf assignment in the Floral Park Stakes in September ahead of the Gallant Bloom. The pattern suggests she requires specific conditions to produce her best efforts, including firm, fast tracks and sprint distances on dirt.​

The breeding and female family details weren’t extensively covered in available sources, but her four-year-old status indicates maturity and experience. The four-pound weight allowance at 121 pounds provides tactical relief against the older mares carrying 125 pounds. If the track comes up fast and firm, she could replicate her Saratoga form where she defeated the highly regarded Weigh the Risks.​

The concern involves her inconsistent form following that Saratoga peak. Fillies and mares who struggle to maintain form following breakthrough performances often face difficulty recapturing that success. The Noble Damsel turf assignment suggests connections were searching for the right formula, and this return to dirt sprint conditions could unlock improvement. However, she faces many of the same rivals she defeated or lost to during the summer, making her form predictable. She merits consideration for exacta and trifecta coverage as a potential value play if she fires her best race, but the inconsistency creates risk.​

Maggy’s Palace

James Ryerson sends out this four-year-old filly who brings tactical speed to the race. Christopher Elliott handles the riding assignment at 121 pounds, receiving a four-pound allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025. Elliott has shown strong form at the current Aqueduct meet and brings versatility to his mounts.​

Specific recent racing details for Maggy’s Palace weren’t extensively covered in available sources, suggesting she has competed primarily in allowance and optional claiming ranks without significant stakes attempts. Her entry in this Listed stakes event represents either a step up in class or opportunistic placement by connections hoping to secure black type.

The four-year-old status indicates maturity and experience, which could prove valuable in a competitive sprint stakes. The breeding and female family weren’t detailed in sources, making assessment of her potential difficult without past performance information. Her connections suggest competent handling but not elite-level training that would indicate significant hidden ability.

The concern revolves around class level and whether she possesses the speed figures and tactical ability to compete with proven stakes performers. Without detailed past performances or speed figure information, handicappers must rely on connections and post position to assess her chances. At projected longshot odds, she offers minimal appeal for win betting but could factor in exotic wagers if the pace collapses or favorite falters. She represents a toss-out candidate in most wagering scenarios given the quality of opposition.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Nic’s Style holds significant edges in proven class and accomplished stakes performances. Her Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie victory validated her ability to compete at elevated levels, and her near-miss to champion Ways and Means in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom demonstrated she belongs in elite company. Her stakes record of 1:21.84 at Tampa Bay Downs indicates legitimate speed figures in the 95-100 Beyer range, though specific recent figures weren’t published in available sources.​

Weigh the Risks brings improving form and a dominant recent allowance victory at Saratoga that suggests developing ability. Chad Brown runners typically show progression through proper placement, and her entry in stakes company indicates confidence from connections. While specific Beyer figures weren’t available, her allowance score likely produced figures in the 90-95 range, competitive with this field’s standards.​

Scalable brings graded stakes experience from earlier in her career, though specific figure details weren’t available given her layoff status. Quality Road offspring typically produce strong speed figures, and Pletcher’s training suggests she has earned competitive numbers previously. Her return from layoff creates uncertainty about current ability level.​

St. Benedicts Prep has shown steady figure production in the 85-90 range based on her consistent stakes placements. Volleyballprincess earned exceptional figures when demolishing the Ruthless Stakes field by ten lengths, likely producing numbers in the 95+ range. However, her subsequent Busher effort and extended layoff create questions about maintaining that level.​

The class analysis clearly favors Nic’s Style and Weigh the Risks, with both having proven themselves in competitive stakes situations. The remaining field brings developing ability or inconsistent form that creates uncertainty about their capacity to defeat the top two contenders.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Recent Aqueduct main track trends indicate moderate to strong speed bias, with front runners winning approximately 69% of races at seven furlongs and pressers adding another 15%. The extended sprint distance from the chute allows horses to establish position efficiently, with the first turn coming quickly after the gate opens. Inside posts typically prove advantageous at this configuration, allowing tactical speed horses to save ground while securing favorable positions.​​

Post 1 for Nic’s Style creates ideal tactical positioning. Junior Alvarado can break alertly and immediately secure position on the rail without worrying about being trapped inside. The defending champion’s tactical speed allows her to press or lead as the pace unfolds, and the rail-to-rail journey maximizes ground savings. This represents optimal post positioning for her running style.​

Post 2 for St. Benedicts Prep provides flexibility for Jose Lezcano’s tactics. Rice runners typically show good early speed, allowing them to secure favorable positions from inside draws. The post shouldn’t significantly impact her chances.​

Post 3 for Taliesin is neutral given her developing status. The middle post provides options without forcing immediate tactical decisions. However, her class disadvantage overshadows any post position considerations.​

Post 4 for Maggy’s Palace creates slight complications for establishing position. Elliott must show alertness breaking from the gate to avoid being shuffled back early. However, her longshot status suggests post position won’t determine her fate.​

Post 5 for Volleyballprincess places her in mid-pack from a tactical perspective. Dylan Davis must navigate traffic efficiently if she attempts to press the pace or secure stalking position. The post doesn’t dramatically help or hinder her chances.​

Post 6 for Scalable creates challenging dynamics for a returning runner. Velazquez must break sharply to establish position, potentially using energy that could compromise her stretch run. However, his tactical expertise typically overcomes post disadvantages.​

Post 7 for Patricia Ann forces aggressive early tactics if she attempts to press the pace. The outside post at seven furlongs requires efficient positioning without excessive early speed. Her tactical versatility allows adaptation, but the draw doesn’t favor her style.​

Post 8 for Weigh the Risks represents the most challenging assignment in the field. Franco must navigate from the extreme outside, making quick decisions about positioning without using excessive energy. However, Brown runners typically overcome post disadvantages through proper conditioning and jockey skill. If Franco tips her outside early to secure clear running, she can still execute her race plan effectively.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race presents interesting wagering dynamics given the defending champion facing a rising Chad Brown contender. Nic’s Style at projected even money or slight odds-on offers limited value despite her proven class. Bettors must decide whether defending champions returning from layoffs justify short prices or if the rust factor creates vulnerability.​

The win betting approach centers on Weigh the Risks at 9-5 morning line odds. Brown’s stable form combined with Franco’s hot riding and her impressive recent allowance score create compelling reasons to prefer her over the favorite. The four-pound weight advantage and improving trajectory suggest she could be peaking at the perfect time. Her morning line price offers superior value compared to the favorite’s likely odds-on proposition.​

Exacta wagering provides strong value opportunities. Boxing Weigh the Risks and Nic’s Style creates coverage of the two most likely winners while maintaining reasonable ticket costs at $4 minimum bet. A more aggressive approach uses Weigh the Risks on top with Nic’s Style, Scalable, and St. Benedicts Prep underneath, creating a $6 ticket that provides full coverage of likely outcomes.​

Trifecta structures should prioritize the top two contenders in the first two positions while spreading underneath. Using Weigh the Risks and Nic’s Style in the first two slots with Scalable, St. Benedicts Prep, Patricia Ann, and Volleyballprincess filling the third position creates a $24 ticket with strong value potential. The trifecta payoff could reach substantial levels given the short field and concentration of betting on the top two choices.​

Superfecta wagering becomes viable given the eight-horse field. A key box using Weigh the Risks and Nic’s Style on top with all others underneath creates comprehensive coverage for reasonable investment. The superfecta likely requires eliminating one or two longshots to maintain manageable ticket costs. Maggy’s Palace and Taliesin appear most vulnerable for elimination given their class disadvantages.​

Place and show betting on Weigh the Risks offers value if her odds drift above 2-1. The place price should return approximately even money or better, providing solid value for risk-averse bettors. Show betting offers minimal value given the short field and heavy favorite concentration at the top of the board.​

Rolling exotic opportunities exist given this race falls in the middle of the card. Using Weigh the Risks as a single in doubles and pick three sequences provides strong anchor value while managing ticket costs. The race falls within multi-race wagering pools that offer value for sequential bettors.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Weigh the Risks – Chad Brown’s four-year-old Mendelssohn filly represents the value play in this competitive sprint stakes. Her dominant allowance victory at Saratoga following a layoff demonstrated Brown’s exceptional ability to have horses fit and ready for peak performances. The Hall of Fame trainer’s stable form remains exceptional throughout the 2025 Aqueduct meet, and his 24% win rate with recent starters indicates strong current conditioning across the barn. Manuel Franco’s aggressive riding style perfectly suits her tactical speed, and his recent success at Aqueduct creates confidence in execution. The four-pound weight advantage at 121 pounds provides meaningful relief in a stamina test against older mares carrying 125 pounds. Her breeding by Mendelssohn suggests dirt aptitude, and the step up to stakes company comes at a logical time in her development. While Nic’s Style brings superior class credentials as defending champion, her extended layoff and distance from her last victory create vulnerability. Brown excels at identifying spots where his developing horses can score major upsets, and this race presents that opportunity. At 9-5 morning line odds, Weigh the Risks offers superior value compared to the favorite’s likely odds-on proposition. If Brown has her cranked up to peak form, she possesses the speed figures and tactical positioning to control this race from start to finish.​

Place: Nic’s Style – Bill Mott’s defending champion brings proven stakes credentials and the class edge over this field. Her Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie victory earlier in 2025 validated her ability to compete in open stakes company beyond Florida-bred restrictions, and her near-miss to champion Ways and Means in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom demonstrated she belongs in elite company. Junior Alvarado’s presence signals Mott’s confidence, and the Hall of Fame trainer’s patient approach with older fillies and mares typically produces peak performances in carefully selected spots. The inside post provides ideal tactical positioning, allowing her to save ground while controlling the pace dynamics. Her stakes record at Tampa Bay Downs of 1:21.84 indicates legitimate speed figures competitive with this field’s standards. The primary concern involves her extended absence since the September Gallant Bloom and whether she retains the sharpness that made her dominant earlier in the year. Mott excels at having horses fit and ready following layoffs, but even the best trainers face challenges returning horses to peak form after extended breaks. At projected even money or slight odds-on, she offers limited win betting value despite her quality. However, her class credentials make her a logical place and show proposition, providing safety in exotic wagering structures. If Weigh the Risks encounters any trouble or fails to fire her best race, Nic’s Style possesses the class and determination to capitalize. The place position provides value at likely 1-2 or better prices, making her essential coverage in exacta and trifecta tickets.​

Show: Scalable – Todd Pletcher’s Quality Road filly represents the intriguing upset possibility returning from her layoff. Hall of Fame trainer Pletcher has built his reputation on exceptional horsemanship with developing fillies and mares, and his record with runners returning from extended breaks merits serious attention. John Velazquez only takes mounts when he believes horses possess legitimate winning chances, and his presence signals confidence from connections about her current condition. The Quality Road breeding suggests both class and versatility for sprint distances on dirt, as the sire has proven himself among the premier stallion influences for main track racing. Her steady workout pattern at Belmont Park, including a sharp half-mile breeze in 49.66 alongside stablemate Crudo, indicates fitness and readiness for this assignment. The primary concern revolves around whether she retains the ability that made her competitive in graded stakes company earlier in her career. First-race-back horses face inherent disadvantages against sharp rivals, particularly in sprint stakes where tactical speed and early positioning prove crucial. However, Pletcher’s training typically overcomes layoff disadvantages through superior conditioning and proper placement. At projected odds above 5-1, she represents legitimate value for show and exotic wagering. The show price should return approximately 2-1 or better, providing solid value for risk-management strategies. Her outside post creates challenges for Velazquez’s positioning tactics, but his tactical expertise typically navigates such obstacles successfully. If Scalable fires her best race returning from the layoff, she possesses class credentials superior to most horses in this field. The combination of Pletcher’s training, Velazquez’s riding, and Quality Road breeding creates compelling reasons to include her prominently in exacta and trifecta structures.​

Alternative Exotic Plays:

Exacta Box: Weigh the Risks-Nic’s Style ($4 minimum bet)

Exacta: Weigh the Risks with Nic’s Style, Scalable, St. Benedicts Prep ($6 ticket)

Trifecta: Weigh the Risks, Nic’s Style with Weigh the Risks, Nic’s Style with Scalable, St. Benedicts Prep, Patricia Ann, Volleyballprincess ($12 ticket)

Trifecta: Weigh the Risks, Nic’s Style with Weigh the Risks, Nic’s Style, Scalable with ALL ($14 ticket for deeper coverage)

Superfecta Key Box: Weigh the Risks, Nic’s Style with Weigh the Risks, Nic’s Style, Scalable, St. Benedicts Prep with ALL ($9.60 ticket)

The race presents a competitive sprint stakes where the rising contender takes on the defending champion. Recent track bias favoring speed creates optimal conditions for tactical pressers, benefiting both top selections. Weigh the Risks appears poised to deliver her best effort at value odds while Nic’s Style provides class safety. The show position creates value opportunities with Scalable’s potential upset if Pletcher’s magic works returning from layoff.

Race 5 – Two-Year-Old Fillies Maiden Special Weight

Post Time: 1:40 PM

Key Contenders

Fraudster represents Todd Pletcher’s barn with John Velazquez riding. Pletcher two-year-old maidens on turf deserve automatic respect, particularly when paired with Velazquez. The breeding suggests turf ability and the connections indicate confidence with this debut.​

A Moment a Love from George Weaver’s stable draws Flavien Prat for the mount. Prat’s recent dominance combined with Weaver’s success with turf maidens makes this filly extremely dangerous. The breeding indicates immediate turf ability.​

Chatelot trained by Miguel Clement gets Joel Rosario aboard. Clement has a strong record with European-style turf runners and Rosario’s presence indicates the filly is ready for her debut.​

Longshots

Super Dreamy ships from Whit Beckman’s barn with Ben Curtis riding. This Irish-bred filly has been working steadily and represents value at the projected 12-1 morning line. Curtis is a capable young rider gaining experience.​

South Philly Slide for Amelia Green has Manuel Franco aboard. Franco’s agent likely sees something promising in this filly’s training pattern to take the mount.​

Pace Analysis

Several fillies possess early tactical speed, creating an honest pace for the six-furlong outer turf distance. Fraudster and A Moment a Love can both secure favorable stalking positions without using excessive energy. The race should develop with moderate fractions before the stretch separates contenders from pretenders. First-time starters on turf often show dramatic improvement as they learn racing, making this a challenging puzzle.​

Selections

Win: A Moment a Love

Place: Fraudster

Show: Chatelot

Race 6 – Three-Year-Olds and Up Allowance

ALLOWANCE. 1 1/8 Miles Dirt. Purse $88,000. (UP TO $15,312 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $20,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Claiming Since May 8, 2025 Allowed 2 lbs.​

Post Time: 2:10 PM

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

This race serves as the opening leg of the late Pick 5 sequence that includes three Grade 3 stakes races, making it a crucial handicapping puzzle. The 1 1/8-mile distance at Aqueduct creates a true test of stamina and tactical positioning, starting from the backstretch and requiring horses to navigate two turns. Recent track trends indicate the main track has been playing fairly with no overwhelming bias, though speed has shown moderate advantages in certain distance configurations.​​

The pace scenario appears moderate to honest given the field composition. Dreamlike and potentially Georgia Magic possess enough early foot to establish position without excessive expenditure. The Linda Rice-trained duo of Dreamlike and Waitlist brings tactical versatility, capable of pressing or stalking as the race develops. Tracking Error from Chad Brown’s barn typically shows stalking tendencies, positioning himself within striking range before unleashing his characteristic late kick.​

Chileno ships in from Brad Cox’s stable with proven route ability and tactical speed sufficient to secure favorable position. Mr. Ripple enters off three consecutive allowance victories and brings closing punch that could prove dangerous if the pace collapses. Re Markably from Bill Mott’s barn gets significant weight relief as a three-year-old facing older rivals, and Mott’s patient development suggests readiness for this two-turn test.​

The 1 1/8-mile configuration typically favors horses with tactical positioning and sustained stamina over pure early speed. Horses positioned within five lengths entering the far turn historically perform best at this distance, as deep closers often face difficulty making up excessive ground. The moderate pace setup should create opportunities for both stalkers and late runners with strong finishes.​

Tracking Error

Chad Brown sends out this three-year-old colt as the probable favorite with Flavien Prat aboard, creating a partnership that has dominated the NYRA circuit throughout the fall meet. Prat’s recent form proves nothing short of spectacular, having set a NYRA single-card record with seven victories from ten mounts on November 3 at Belmont at the Big A, never finishing outside the exacta that day. The Jockeys’ Guild named Prat Jockey of the Week following his dual Breeders Cup victories and record-setting performance.​

Brown’s stable form remains exceptional with 18 wins from 60 starters over the past 21 days, representing a 30% win rate that underscores his barn’s current sharpness. The Hall of Fame trainer has captured his 36th NYRA training title and recently secured a record-extending seventh victory in the Chelsey Flower Stakes, demonstrating sustained excellence across all divisions.​

At 118 pounds, Tracking Error receives a five-pound weight advantage as a three-year-old non-winner facing older rivals carrying 121-123 pounds. This tactical relief proves significant in route races where weight distribution affects stamina and finishing kick. The breeding and connections suggest strong dirt ability, and Brown’s pattern of developing three-year-olds through patient placement indicates this spot represents logical progression.​

The concern centers on limited information about his recent form and past performances. However, Brown’s decision to enter him in this spot with Prat aboard signals strong confidence from connections. When Brown pairs his developing three-year-olds with elite jockeys in allowance company, they typically fire winning efforts. The Brown-Prat combination produced four victories on Prat’s record-setting day, indicating exceptional chemistry between trainer and rider.​

Brown excels at spotting horses where they can succeed, and his 30% current win rate suggests horses exiting his barn arrive fit and ready for peak performances. If Tracking Error possesses the ability connections clearly believe he has, the weight advantage and favorable race setup create optimal winning conditions. His stalking style suits the anticipated moderate pace, allowing Prat to position comfortably before unleashing their move on the far turn.​

Chileno

Brad Cox ships this six-year-old gelding from his Kentucky base with Manuel Franco handling the riding assignment. Cox has compiled 20 wins from 68 starters over the past 21 days, reflecting a 29% win rate that indicates strong barn form. When Cox ships horses to New York, they typically arrive fit and ready to fire, as evidenced by his dual Breeders Cup victories and sustained success throughout 2025.​

Chileno brings a consistent allowance record with multiple lifetime starts and earnings approaching six figures. His racing history shows wins at distances ranging from one mile to 1 1/16 miles, indicating comfort with route racing. Recent Equibase data shows performances at Saratoga and Belmont at the Big A through the summer and fall, suggesting Cox has campaigned him steadily through the NYRA circuit.​

Franco’s presence signals Cox’s confidence, as the trainer pairs his shippers with capable riders who know the Aqueduct surface. Franco has shown strong form at the current meet and brings aggressive tactical riding that suits Chileno’s running style. At 121 pounds with a two-pound allowance, he receives slight relief that could prove meaningful in a stamina test.​

The six-year-old gelding status indicates maturity and experience navigating competitive allowance fields. His recent form through Saratoga and Belmont at the Big A suggests he’s accustomed to NYRA racing surfaces and competition levels. Cox’s patient approach with older geldings typically produces consistent efforts rather than brilliant performances, making Chileno a logical underneath play in exotic wagers.​

The concern involves whether he possesses the class edge to defeat a Chad Brown three-year-old receiving significant weight relief. While Chileno brings proven ability and Cox’s training, the combination of Tracking Error’s youth, weight advantage, and hot connections creates obstacles. He represents solid value for place and show wagering but faces challenges as a win candidate against the probable favorite.​

Re Markably

Bill Mott sends out this lightly raced three-year-old colt with Junior Alvarado aboard, continuing a productive partnership that has flourished throughout 2025. Mott recently captured his Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award, capping a season that saw him train champion Sovereignty to victories in multiple Grade 1 events. Alvarado’s chemistry with Mott runners proves exceptional, having guided Sovereignty through his championship campaign with tactical brilliance.​

At 118 pounds, Re Markably receives maximum weight relief as a three-year-old non-winner facing older rivals. The five-pound advantage proves significant in route races testing stamina and sustained speed. Mott’s patient development of three-year-olds typically produces horses ready for progression when entered in appropriate spots, and this allowance assignment represents logical placement for a lightly raced colt.​

The limited racing experience creates both intrigue and concern. Three-year-olds improving through the fall often show dramatic development as they mature physically and mentally. Mott excels at identifying the right moments to advance horses through class levels, and his seven wins from 44 starters over the past 21 days indicates selective but effective placement. If Re Markably has developed during recent training sessions, the weight advantage and Alvarado’s handling could produce an upset.​

The Mott-Alvarado partnership merits serious respect given their success throughout 2025. Alvarado’s aggressive yet patient riding style allows him to adapt tactics based on pace scenarios, and his familiarity with Aqueduct provides advantages in positioning and timing moves. The combination of youth, weight relief, and elite connections makes Re Markably a dangerous contender beneath the surface odds.​

Dreamlike

Linda Rice sends out this five-year-old Gun Runner gelding seeking his second career victory after breaking his maiden at Saratoga in July 2023. Kendrick Carmouche handles the riding assignment, continuing a productive partnership with Rice’s stable throughout the NYRA circuit. Rice has dominated recent action with 30 wins from 104 starters over the past 21 days, representing a remarkable 29% win rate that demonstrates exceptional barn form.​

The Gun Runner breeding suggests both class and stamina for route distances on dirt. Gun Runner has established himself among the premier sire influences, consistently producing stakes winners and graded performers. Dreamlike’s female family by Tapit adds additional stamina and class depth, creating a pedigree profile suited for 1 1/8-mile tests.​

Rice’s expertise with state-bred horses and intimate knowledge of the Aqueduct oval provides advantages in placement and preparation. Her recent hot streak indicates horses exiting her barn arrive fit and ready for peak efforts. Dreamlike has competed consistently through 2025 with multiple placing efforts suggesting he belongs in this level but hasn’t dominated competition.​

At 123 pounds carrying full weight as an older gelding without allowances, he faces tactical challenges against lighter-weighted three-year-olds. The Gun Runner breeding suggests capability at the distance, but his limited victory total from 15 career starts indicates consistency without brilliance. Recent appearances at Aqueduct suggest familiarity with the surface and configuration, though specific performance details weren’t extensively covered.​

Rice’s hot form combined with Carmouche’s capable riding makes Dreamlike a logical underneath play in exotic wagers. He possesses enough tactical speed to secure favorable position while conserving energy for the stretch drive. However, defeating higher-class runners like Tracking Error requires career-best efforts that his past performances suggest he’s unlikely to produce. He represents solid value for exacta and trifecta coverage as a potential place or show finisher.​

Mr. Ripple

Miguel Clement sends out this five-year-old gelding riding a three-race winning streak in allowance company. Jaime Rodriguez handles the mount, and the partnership has produced consistent results through recent summer and fall racing. The winning streak began at Finger Lakes in August where he dominated by impressive margins, continued with victories through September, making him the form horse entering this assignment.​

At 123 pounds carrying full weight, he faces no weight disadvantages against similarly aged rivals but gives up five pounds to the three-year-olds. His recent form suggests he’s operating at peak ability, and horses riding winning streaks often continue success when properly placed. Clement’s training has clearly unlocked improvement, and the three consecutive victories demonstrate both consistency and progression.​

The closing running style creates tactical positioning that could prove advantageous if the pace unfolds moderately or fast. Horses sitting off early leaders while conserving energy often produce strong finishing kicks in route races when fractions heat up. Rodriguez’s familiarity with his running style allows proper tactical execution, waiting patiently before unleashing their move entering the stretch.​

The concern centers on class level and whether his Finger Lakes success translates to NYRA circuit competition. While he’s won three consecutive races, the quality of opposition at regional tracks rarely matches Aqueduct standards. Stepping up to face Chad Brown and Brad Cox runners represents a significant class test that his past performances must validate. If the pace sets up favorably with honest fractions, his closing kick could produce a meaningful result, but expecting him to defeat elite barn runners requires substantial class improvement.​

Georgia Magic

Raymond Handal sends out this three-year-old gelding with Christopher Elliott aboard. At 118 pounds receiving maximum weight relief, he enjoys tactical advantages over older rivals. The three-year-old classification suggests developing ability, though specific recent form details weren’t extensively covered in available sources.​

Elliott has shown competent riding at the current Aqueduct meet, bringing tactical versatility to his mounts. The weight advantage at 118 pounds provides significant relief in stamina tests, potentially allowing Georgia Magic to compete despite limited information about his class level. Three-year-olds progressing through the fall often show dramatic improvement as they mature physically.​

The limited public information creates handicapping challenges. Without detailed past performances or speed figure data, assessing his true ability proves difficult. The connections suggest competent but not elite-level training that would indicate hidden class. At projected longshot odds, he offers minimal win betting appeal but could factor for minor awards if the race sets up favorably with chaos or troubled trips affecting favorites.​

Commuted

Robert Falcone Jr. trains this four-year-old gelding with Ricardo Santana Jr. handling the riding assignment. At 123 pounds carrying full weight, he receives no advantages over similarly aged rivals and gives up five pounds to three-year-olds. Santana’s presence indicates connections believe he possesses ability, as the leading rider only takes mounts with legitimate chances.​

Specific recent form details weren’t extensively covered, creating uncertainty about current ability and class level. Four-year-old geldings typically show maturity and experience, having navigated multiple campaigns and competition levels. The decision to enter allowance company suggests he fits this level based on past performances.​

Without detailed racing history or speed figures, handicappers must rely on connections and post position to assess chances. Santana’s tactical skills could produce position advantages, but defeating elite barn runners requires class edges that limited information doesn’t confirm. He represents a speculative underneath play in deep exotic wagers but offers minimal confidence for win betting.​

Waitlist

Linda Rice’s second entry brings tactical versatility with Ruben Silvera aboard. At 121 pounds receiving a two-pound allowance, the four-year-old gelding enjoys slight relief. Rice’s exceptional 29% win rate over recent weeks suggests both entries arrive fit and ready for competitive efforts.​

The dual Rice entry creates interesting wagering dynamics. Trainers running multiple horses typically signal confidence in at least one entry’s chances, though determining which receives primary focus proves challenging. Rice’s knowledge of both horses’ abilities and current form provides advantages in tactical planning and jockey instructions.​

Limited specific performance details make assessment difficult, though Rice’s hot form indicates horses exiting her barn compete effectively. The scratches and changes data showed previous main track only restrictions, suggesting surface preferences or conditioning patterns that led to this dirt assignment. As Rice’s secondary entry behind Dreamlike, he likely represents tactical positioning for exotic wagering rather than serious win threat.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Tracking Error holds theoretical speed figure advantages based on Chad Brown’s training and the typical progression pattern of three-year-olds through the fall. Brown runners stretching to route distances often post career-best figures when properly placed, and the 118-pound impost provides tactical relief that enhances late kick effectiveness.​

Mr. Ripple brings the strongest recent form with three consecutive victories producing competitive figures for allowance company. However, translating regional track figures to NYRA circuit standards creates uncertainty about true ability level. His closing style suggests figures in the 85-90 range based on typical Finger Lakes allowance standards.​

Chileno has compiled solid figures through consistent NYRA circuit campaigning, likely posting numbers in the 83-88 range based on his competitive allowance efforts. Brad Cox runners typically produce reliable figure patterns without spectacular peaks, making him a consistent but not brilliant performer.​

Dreamlike’s single career victory and multiple placing efforts suggest figure production in the 80-85 range. While bred to produce higher numbers through his Gun Runner pedigree, his limited win total indicates he hasn’t fulfilled that potential. Rice’s recent hot streak could signal improvement, but his established pattern shows consistency without dominance.​

The class analysis clearly favors Tracking Error given Chad Brown’s training and the typical development curve of three-year-olds receiving significant weight relief. Brown’s 30% current win rate combined with Flavien Prat’s record-setting form creates advantages that speed figures alone can’t fully capture. The remaining field brings proven allowance ability without the upside potential of a developing three-year-old from an elite barn.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Recent Aqueduct main track trends show fair racing surfaces without overwhelming biases favoring specific running styles or post positions. The 1 1/8-mile distance starting from the backstretch creates a two-turn configuration where inside posts typically provide ground-saving advantages without creating traffic concerns.​

Post 1 for Dreamlike provides ideal tactical positioning for Linda Rice’s stalker. Carmouche can break alertly and immediately secure position on the rail without expending excessive energy. The inside journey maximizes ground savings while maintaining flexibility for positioning adjustments. Rice runners from inside posts typically perform well given her tactical training approach.​

Post 2 for Re Markably creates favorable dynamics for Bill Mott’s three-year-old. Alvarado can assess early pace development while positioning comfortably in second or third, securing the perfect stalking position without traffic concerns. The post allows tactical flexibility without forcing immediate decisions.​

Post 3 for Waitlist provides Rice’s secondary entry with options. Silvera can position based on how Dreamlike and other speed influences unfold early. The middle-inside post creates neither significant advantages nor disadvantages.​

Post 4 for Georgia Magic places him in neutral territory. Elliott must show alertness breaking from the gate to secure favorable position without being shuffled back. The post doesn’t dramatically impact his chances given limited information about his ability.​

Post 5 for Commuted creates slight complications for establishing position. Santana must navigate efficiently to avoid traffic while securing his preferred running position. However, the two-turn configuration provides ample time to work out positioning dynamics.​

Post 6 for Chileno forces Brad Cox’s shipper to break alertly from the outside-middle draw. Franco must make quick decisions about tactical positioning without using excessive early energy. The post doesn’t favor his stalking style but shouldn’t prove insurmountable for a capable rider.​

Post 7 for Mr. Ripple suits his closing style perfectly. Rodriguez can break without urgency, allow early speed influences to establish position, and then circle horses entering the far turn. The outside post provides clear running lanes for late closers, creating optimal tactical setup.​

Post 8 for Tracking Error represents the most challenging assignment, forcing Flavien Prat to navigate from the extreme outside. However, Prat’s exceptional tactical skills typically overcome post disadvantages. He can tip outside early to secure a clear stalking position or rate patiently before making his characteristic late run. The outside post actually provides advantages for closers by ensuring clear running room.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race opens the late Pick 5 sequence featuring three Grade 3 stakes, creating significant multi-race wagering value. Tracking Error appears the logical single given Chad Brown’s training, Flavien Prat’s record-setting form, and the three-year-old’s weight advantage. Using him as a single creates affordable Pick 5 tickets while maintaining strong probability of advancing through the sequence.​

Win betting centers on Tracking Error despite likely short odds. Brown’s 30% win rate combined with Prat’s current dominance justifies confidence despite limited public information. The weight advantage and favorable race setup create optimal winning conditions. If morning line odds settle near even money or slight odds-on, the value proposition diminishes but the probability of success remains high.​

Exotic wagering provides superior value opportunities given the competitive nature beneath the favorite. Exacta structures should prioritize Tracking Error on top with Chileno, Re Markably, and Mr. Ripple underneath. A $6 ticket creates comprehensive coverage of likely outcomes while maintaining reasonable investment. Reverse exacta adding Chileno and Re Markably on top with Tracking Error second provides protection against upsets.​

Trifecta wagering offers strong value potential. Using Tracking Error and Chileno in the first two positions while spreading underneath with Re Markably, Mr. Ripple, Dreamlike, and Georgia Magic creates tickets ranging from $12 to $24 depending on coverage depth. The trifecta payoff could reach substantial levels if Tracking Error wins at short odds while longshots fill place and show positions.​

Superfecta structures become viable with the eight-horse field. A key box using Tracking Error and Chileno on top with all others underneath creates coverage for $30. Eliminating Commuted, Georgia Magic, and Waitlist reduces ticket costs while maintaining realistic coverage of likely outcomes. The superfecta likely requires four legitimate contenders filling positions, making judicious elimination essential.​

Rolling exotic opportunities prove valuable given this race’s position opening the late Pick 5. Using Tracking Error as a single in doubles, pick threes, and the Pick 5 creates strong anchor value while managing ticket costs. The mandatory payout Pick 5 beginning here adds pool value for sequential bettors willing to construct deeper tickets.​

Place and show betting on Tracking Error offers limited value given likely short odds and heavy favorite concentration. However, place betting on Chileno or Re Markably at projected 4-1 to 6-1 odds creates reasonable value for risk-averse bettors. Show prices on either could return even money or better, providing solid risk-reward propositions.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Tracking Error – Chad Brown’s three-year-old colt represents the standout selection in this competitive allowance field. The combination of elite training, record-setting jockey form, and significant weight advantage creates nearly unbeatable conditions. Brown’s 30% win rate over the past 21 days reflects exceptional barn form, and his horses typically fire peak efforts when entered at appropriate levels. Flavien Prat’s recent dominance proves nothing short of spectacular, having set a NYRA single-card record with seven victories just days ago while never finishing outside the exacta. The Jockeys’ Guild recognized his brilliance by naming him Jockey of the Week following dual Breeders Cup victories and the record-setting performance. The Brown-Prat partnership has flourished throughout 2025, producing multiple graded stakes victories and demonstrating exceptional chemistry. At 118 pounds, Tracking Error receives five pounds from older rivals carrying 123 pounds, a tactical advantage that proves significant in stamina tests at 1 1/8 miles. Three-year-olds receiving such relief often produce career-best efforts when properly spotted, and Brown excels at identifying optimal placement for developing horses. His patient training approach and sustained success developing three-year-olds through the fall suggests this spot represents logical progression. The moderate pace setup should favor his stalking style, allowing Prat to position comfortably before unleashing their characteristic late kick on the far turn. Brown’s decision to enter him with Prat aboard signals strong confidence from connections, and when Brown pairs developing three-year-olds with elite jockeys in allowance company, they typically deliver winning efforts. The outside post creates slight positioning challenges but provides advantages for late runners by ensuring clear running lanes. Prat’s tactical brilliance typically overcomes post disadvantages through superior timing and positioning decisions. While limited public information creates some uncertainty about past performances, the combination of elite connections, weight advantages, and current form make Tracking Error the logical win selection. Brown runners entering off training patterns typically fire first time in appropriate spots, and this allowance level represents the perfect launching point for a three-year-old ready to advance.​

Place: Chileno – Brad Cox’s six-year-old gelding brings proven consistency and elite training to this competitive allowance. Cox has compiled 20 wins from 68 starters over the past 21 days, reflecting 29% win rate that indicates strong current barn form. When Cox ships horses from his Kentucky base to New York, they typically arrive fit and ready to fire, as evidenced by his sustained success throughout 2025 including dual Breeders Cup victories. Chileno’s racing record shows multiple lifetime starts with competitive efforts at distances ranging from one mile to 1 1/16 miles, indicating comfort with route racing and familiarity with NYRA surfaces. His recent campaigns through Saratoga and Belmont at the Big A demonstrate Cox’s confidence in his ability to handle quality competition on the NYRA circuit. Manuel Franco’s presence signals Cox’s belief in his chances, as the trainer pairs his shippers with capable riders who understand the Aqueduct surface and tactical requirements. Franco has shown strong form at the current meet, bringing aggressive yet patient riding that suits Chileno’s stalking style. At 121 pounds with a two-pound allowance, he receives slight relief that could prove meaningful against full-weighted older rivals. The six-year-old gelding status indicates maturity and experience navigating competitive allowance fields without the brilliance to dominate elite company. Cox’s patient approach with older geldings typically produces consistent efforts rather than spectacular performances, making Chileno an ideal place candidate who brings reliability without win pressure. His tactical speed allows positioning within striking range throughout the race, ensuring he factors for minor awards even if unable to defeat Tracking Error. The post 6 draw creates slight positioning challenges but shouldn’t prevent Franco from securing favorable position given his tactical skills. Cox’s training combined with proven route ability makes Chileno the logical place selection, providing safety in exotic wagering structures while offering value at projected 4-1 to 5-1 odds. If Tracking Error encounters any trouble or fails to fire his best race, Chileno possesses the class and consistency to capitalize for the victory.​

Show: Re Markably – Bill Mott’s lightly raced three-year-old colt represents the intriguing value play in this allowance test. Mott recently captured his Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award following a championship season highlighted by training Sovereignty to multiple Grade 1 victories and Horse of the Year consideration. Junior Alvarado’s presence signals Mott’s confidence, continuing a productive partnership that flourished throughout Sovereignty’s championship campaign with tactical brilliance and patient execution. The Mott-Alvarado combination merits serious respect given their sustained success throughout 2025, and when Mott enters lightly raced three-year-olds in allowance spots with Alvarado aboard, they typically fire competitive efforts. At 118 pounds, Re Markably receives maximum weight relief as a three-year-old non-winner, enjoying five pounds from older rivals carrying 123 pounds. This tactical advantage proves significant in route races testing stamina and sustained speed, potentially allowing him to compete above his established class level. Mott’s patient development of three-year-olds typically produces horses ready for progression when entered in appropriate spots, and this allowance assignment represents logical placement for a lightly raced colt with developing potential. Three-year-olds improving through the fall often show dramatic development as they mature physically and mentally, and Mott excels at identifying the precise moments to advance horses through class levels. His seven wins from 44 starters over the past 21 days indicates selective but effective placement, entering horses only when he believes they possess legitimate chances. Alvarado’s aggressive yet patient riding style allows him to adapt tactics based on pace scenarios, and his familiarity with Aqueduct provides advantages in positioning and timing moves. The post 2 draw creates optimal tactical positioning, allowing Alvarado to assess early pace development while securing comfortable stalking position without traffic concerns. If Re Markably has developed during recent training sessions as Mott’s placement suggests, the weight advantage and elite connections could produce a meaningful result for show or better. The combination of youth, weight relief, and Hall of Fame connections makes him a dangerous underneath contender at projected 6-1 to 8-1 odds. The show price should return approximately 2-1 or better, providing solid value for risk-management strategies while maintaining realistic upset potential if everything comes together. Mott’s training typically overcomes layoff disadvantages through superior conditioning and proper placement, making Re Markably the logical show selection who brings both value and legitimate chances for better finishes.​

Alternative Exotic Plays:

Exacta Box: Tracking Error-Chileno ($4 minimum bet)

Exacta: Tracking Error with Chileno, Re Markably, Mr. Ripple ($6 ticket)

Trifecta: Tracking Error, Chileno with Tracking Error, Chileno with Re Markably, Mr. Ripple, Dreamlike ($12 ticket)

Trifecta: Tracking Error, Chileno with Tracking Error, Chileno, Re Markably with ALL ($18 ticket for deeper coverage)

Superfecta Key Box: Tracking Error, Chileno with Tracking Error, Chileno, Re Markably, Mr. Ripple with ALL ($14.40 ticket)

Late Pick 5 Single: Tracking Error in Race 6 leg

The race presents a clear favorite in Tracking Error who benefits from elite connections, weight advantages, and optimal race setup. His selection as opening leg single in the late Pick 5 provides affordable ticket construction while maintaining strong probability of advancing through the lucrative sequence featuring three Grade 3 stakes.​​

Race 7 – Hill Prince Stakes (Grade 3)

STAKES. 1 1/8 Miles Turf. Purse $200,000. Hill Prince Stakes (Grade 3). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $200 each which should accompany the nomination; $1,000 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,000 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental nomination payment of $1,000 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. 122 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstakes allowed 2 lbs.; of a Sweepstakes in 2025 allowed 4 lbs. The New York Racing Association reserves the right to transfer this race to the main track. In the event that this race is taken off the turf, it may be subject to downgrading upon review by the Graded Stakes Committee. Closed Saturday, October 25, 2025 with 21 Nominations. Rail at 27 feet.​

Post Time: 2:39 PM

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

This Grade 3 turf stakes presents a fascinating tactical puzzle over the inner turf course at nine furlongs. Recent trends at Aqueduct’s inner turf configuration show closers have fared particularly well in route races, creating optimal conditions for late-running types who can conserve energy while stalking moderate early fractions. The 1 1/8-mile distance on the inner turf starts horses deep in the backstretch, requiring stamina, tactical positioning, and a sustained finishing kick.​

The pace scenario appears moderate to honest given the field composition. Stars and Strides possesses tactical early speed sufficient to secure stalking positions without excessive expenditure, having shown versatility in his running style throughout his career. Mayor of Midnight from Chad Brown’s barn typically displays patient stalking tactics that suit turf routes, positioning himself within striking distance before unleashing characteristic late kicks.​

Noble Confessor brings frontrunning tendencies from his maiden victory at Saratoga where he led throughout, though his experience in graded company suggests potential tactical adjustments. Church and State showed tactical versatility winning the Gio Ponti Stakes, capable of pressing or stalking as pace dynamics develop. Soleil Volant enters as a proven closer who rallied from sixth to nose out Thundering in the Kent Stakes, demonstrating his come-from-behind style perfectly suits soft turf conditions.​​

The moderate expected pace should create optimal conditions for horses with tactical positioning and strong finishing kicks. The inner turf configuration at Aqueduct typically favors closers who can secure clear running lanes entering the stretch while conserving energy through the early stages. Multiple horses bringing closing tendencies suggests traffic management and jockey positioning will prove crucial to success.​

Stars and Strides

Bill Mott sends out this undefeated-on-turf three-year-old colt as the deserving morning line favorite at 2-1. The Not This Time colt brings perfect 2-for-2 turf credentials including his most recent victory in the Saranac Stakes at Saratoga where he stalked and pounced with an inside rally to defeat Griffin’s Wharf by three-quarters of a length under Junior Alvarado. That performance earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure, improving from an 84 in his prior turf effort and demonstrating steady progression.​

His turf debut came in a nine-furlong allowance at Saratoga in August where he lugged in during the stretch drive but maintained enough to hold off a slew of closers including Griffin’s Wharf for a three-quarter-length victory. The performance validated his turf ability despite the minor steering issue, and the connections’ patience allowing him to develop through allowance company before stakes assignments reflects Mott’s typical patient approach with developing three-year-olds.​

The breeding by Not This Time out of a First Samurai mare suggests versatility for both surfaces, and his 4-for-4 lifetime record across dirt and turf demonstrates genuine quality. His versatility proves exceptional, having won sprinting, routing, on fast tracks and wet tracks, while showing ability to set pace, rally from off pace, or track pace as tactical situations require.​​

Alvarado has piloted all four career outings and retains the mount from post 6, continuing a productive partnership with Mott’s stable. The Hall of Fame trainer recently captured his Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award and brings seven wins from 44 starters over the past 21 days, indicating selective but effective placement. Mott’s expertise developing three-year-olds through the fall typically produces horses ready for graded stakes success, and Stars and Strides’ progression pattern suggests readiness for this challenge.​

At 120 pounds receiving a two-pound weight allowance for non-graded stakes winners, he enjoys slight tactical relief against horses carrying 122 pounds. The post 6 draw provides flexibility for Alvarado’s tactical decisions, allowing him to assess early pace development while positioning comfortably within striking range. If the pace unfolds moderately as expected, his tactical speed allows securing favorable position without excessive early energy expenditure, setting up his characteristic late kick.​

The concern involves stepping into graded company for the first time after dominating allowance rivals. However, his quality of victories and steady speed figure progression suggest he possesses the class necessary to compete at this level. Mott’s decision to enter him signals confidence in his readiness, and when Mott advances three-year-olds into graded stakes with Alvarado aboard, they typically deliver competitive efforts.​

Mayor of Midnight

Chad Brown sends out this improving Irish-bred gelding with Flavien Prat aboard at morning line odds of 9-2, creating a partnership that has dominated recent NYRA racing. The Lope de Vega colt makes his stakes debut following progressive form development that culminated in an impressive performance outfinishing a field of older horses on his return from a break.​

Brown’s stable form remains exceptional with 18 wins from 60 starters over the past 21 days, reflecting 30% win rate that underscores current barn sharpness. His record with turf routers proves particularly strong, and the decision to enter Mayor of Midnight in graded stakes company signals confidence from one of the sport’s premier trainers. Brown captured his record-extending 36th NYRA training title and recently secured his seventh Chelsey Flower Stakes victory, demonstrating sustained excellence across divisions.​

Prat’s presence creates enormous tactical advantages given his recent record-setting form. The French jockey set a NYRA single-card record with seven victories from ten mounts on November 3, never finishing outside the exacta that day. The Jockeys’ Guild named him Jockey of the Week following dual Breeders Cup victories and the historic performance, and his chemistry with Brown runners has produced multiple graded stakes victories throughout 2025.​

At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, Mayor of Midnight enjoys significant tactical relief in this stamina test. The Irish breeding by Lope de Vega suggests natural aptitude for soft turf conditions, and European-bred horses typically show strong performances when encountering yielding or soft surfaces at American tracks. Brown’s expertise developing European imports and turf routers creates confidence in proper placement and conditioning.​

The post 8 draw forces Prat to navigate from the outside, but his exceptional tactical skills typically overcome post disadvantages. Brown runners from outside posts often secure clear running lanes while avoiding traffic complications, and Prat’s patience allows proper execution of come-from-behind tactics. If Mayor of Midnight has developed as Brown’s placement suggests, the combination of elite training, weight advantages, and Prat’s current brilliance creates formidable winning conditions.

The concern centers on limited information about his specific past performances and speed figures. However, Brown’s decision to enter him in graded stakes for his first stakes attempt indicates strong confidence in current ability. When Brown advances developing three-year-olds into graded company with weight allowances and Prat aboard, they frequently produce upsets at value odds.​

Stars and Strides

Covered above as top contender.

Soleil Volant

Graham Motion sends out this Kentucky-bred gelding fresh off his breakthrough stakes victory in the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park where he rallied from sixth on soft turf to nose out Thundering in a thrilling finish. The Karakontie colt returned to the course where he broke his maiden last year and displayed the tactical patience and closing kick that Motion has developed through his training program.​​

Motion’s assessment following the Kent victory proved prophetic, noting the colt had been knocking on the door against tough competition and needed the 1 1/8-mile distance to showcase his stamina. That performance validated Motion’s patient approach after Soleil Volant finished fourth in the Old Dominion Derby behind World Beater, possibly the best three-year-old turf horse in the country. The progression pattern suggests a developing horse hitting his stride at the perfect time in his three-year-old campaign.​

At 120 pounds carrying a two-pound weight allowance for non-graded stakes winners, he receives slight tactical relief. Samuel Marin handles the riding assignment, bringing tactical awareness developed through Motion’s barn. The Kent Stakes victory at Delaware Park on soft going suggests he handles off-tracks effectively, creating advantages if weather impacts the turf course.​

The breeding by Karakontie out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare provides European turf influence combined with American stamina, creating an ideal pedigree profile for 1 1/8-mile turf routes. Motion’s expertise developing European-style turf routers through patient campaigns typically produces horses peaking in late-season stakes assignments. His one win from five career starts shows steady development without explosive early success, fitting Motion’s patient training philosophy.​

The concern involves whether his Kent Stakes victory represents genuine stakes-caliber form or soft competition at Delaware Park. While he defeated Thundering who also enters this field, the overall quality of Delaware opposition rarely matches NYRA circuit standards. Stepping into Grade 3 company against horses trained by Brown and Mott represents a significant class test that his past performances must validate.

However, his closing style suits the anticipated moderate pace, and Motion’s confidence entering him directly into graded stakes following the Kent victory signals belief in his current ability. If the pace unfolds honestly and the turf plays favorably for closers, his proven stamina and strong finishing kick could produce a meaningful result at double-digit odds.​​

Noble Confessor

Todd Pletcher sends out this Quality Road colt seeking his first graded stakes victory following mixed results in elevated company. Kendrick Carmouche handles the riding assignment from post 1, providing tactical advantages from the rail position. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, he enjoys significant tactical relief in this stamina test.​

His most recent performance came in the Grade 2 Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes at Belmont at the Big A on October 4 where he competed over 1 3/8 miles on the inner turf. Prior to that assignment, he ventured into the Nashville Derby Invitational at Kentucky Downs on August 30 where he led early but faded to sixth after appearing in third position entering the stretch. The performance suggested stamina limitations at extreme distances or potential tactical mistakes in aggressive frontrunning tactics.​

However, his career began promisingly with a maiden victory at Saratoga where he led throughout winning a 1 3/16-mile turf race, demonstrating both early speed and stamina for route distances. The Quality Road breeding out of Sweeter Than Wine mare suggests class and versatility, as Quality Road has established himself among premier sire influences for both dirt and turf racing.​

Pletcher’s recent form shows 18 wins from 60 starters over the past 21 days, though his turf record doesn’t match his dirt dominance. The Hall of Fame trainer’s decision to enter Noble Confessor in graded stakes following disappointing performances in similar company creates questions about current form and readiness. While Pletcher excels at identifying spots where horses can succeed, the pattern of fading in graded company suggests class limitations.​

The post 1 draw from the rail provides tactical advantages for frontrunning or stalking tactics, allowing Carmouche to save ground throughout while maintaining position flexibility. If Noble Confessor can secure comfortable early fractions without engaging in speed duels, his Quality Road stamina could produce improved results. However, his established pattern of struggling in graded stakes creates legitimate concerns about defeating higher-class rivals like Stars and Strides and Mayor of Midnight.

At morning line odds of 5-1, he offers questionable value given his inconsistent graded stakes record. He represents a logical underneath play in exotic wagers as a potential place or show finisher but faces significant challenges as a win candidate against proven graded runners and improving types from elite barns.​

Church and State

Dale Desruisseaux sends out this gray gelding with Dylan Davis aboard following recent strong form in stakes company. At 120 pounds as a non-graded stakes winner, he receives two-pound weight relief in this Grade 3 assignment. The three-year-old has won 4-of-7 career outings, demonstrating consistency and competitive ability across various conditions.​

His most recent victory came in the Gio Ponti Stakes at Aqueduct in September, though specific performance details weren’t extensively covered in available sources. That stakes victory validated his progression through the ranks and provided connections with confidence for this Grade 3 step. Prior to the Gio Ponti, he was cross-entered in both that race and the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park, with Desruisseaux ultimately choosing the flat mile at Aqueduct over the 1 1/8-mile Kent assignment.​

The breeding and pedigree details weren’t extensively covered, creating some uncertainty about optimal distance and surface preferences. However, his 4-of-7 record suggests genuine ability and consistency in competitive spots. Desruisseaux’s training indicates competent handling though not elite-level barn form that would suggest hidden class advantages.

Davis brings capable riding but lacks the star power of Prat or Alvarado, potentially creating tactical disadvantages in competitive graded stakes where positioning and timing prove crucial. The post 3 draw provides neutral tactical positioning without significant advantages or disadvantages.

At morning line odds of 12-1, Church and State represents a live longshot if the pace sets up favorably for his running style. However, limited public information about his speed figures and class levels creates handicapping challenges. He merits consideration for deep exotic wagers but offers minimal confidence for win betting against proven graded runners and horses from elite barns.​

Griffin’s Wharf

Thomas Morley trains this three-year-old colt with Ricardo Santana Jr. handling the riding assignment. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, he enjoys tactical relief in this stamina test. His most recent performance came in the Gio Ponti Stakes where he finished third following his runner-up effort to Stars and Strides in the Saranac Stakes.​

The runner-up finish to Stars and Strides in August’s allowance at Saratoga proved his ability to compete with higher-class runners, losing by three-quarters of a length while closing from mid-pack. That performance demonstrated genuine talent and validated his progression through allowance ranks toward stakes company. His subsequent third-place finish in the Gio Ponti Stakes suggested he belongs in stakes conversations without dominating competition.​

The breeding by American Pharoah provides strong pedigree credentials, as the Triple Crown winner has established himself producing quality runners across surfaces and distances. The decision to try stakes company following consistent allowance efforts reflects logical progression from connections hoping to secure black type.​

Santana’s presence signals competitive intent, as the leading rider typically gravitates toward live mounts with legitimate chances. His tactical skills could produce favorable positioning, particularly if the pace unfolds moderately as expected. The post 7 draw forces navigation from outside-middle position but shouldn’t prevent securing stalking position.

The concern centers on whether he possesses the class necessary to defeat Stars and Strides in a rematch while also handling proven stakes winners and improving Brown runners. His established pattern shows competitiveness without brilliance, making him a logical underneath play in exotic wagers. At morning line odds of 6-1, he offers modest value for place and show betting but faces significant challenges defeating higher-class opposition.​

Thundering

Patrick Dixon trains this three-year-old gelding with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, he enjoys tactical relief. His most recent performance came in the Kent Stakes at Delaware Park where he finished second, losing by a nose to Soleil Volant after pressing the pace throughout.​​

The narrow defeat proved his competitive ability in stakes company while demonstrating frontrunning or pace-pressing tactics that create tactical options. Velazquez’s presence signals Dixon’s confidence, as the Hall of Fame rider only takes mounts where he believes horses possess legitimate winning chances. Their partnership could produce tactical advantages through Velazquez’s superior positioning skills and race reading abilities.

The post 2 draw from the rail provides ideal tactical positioning for pressing or stalking tactics, allowing Velazquez to save ground while maintaining position flexibility. If Thundering can secure comfortable stalking position without excessive early expenditure, Velazquez’s timing could produce a strong stretch kick.

Limited specific information about breeding, pedigree, and past performances creates handicapping challenges. However, his competitive Kent Stakes effort validates stakes-caliber ability, and the Velazquez partnership elevates his chances above connections alone might suggest. At morning line odds of 12-1, he represents intriguing value as a potential upset threat if everything comes together.​​

Tiz Dashing

Barclay Tagg sends out this Tiz the Law colt with Javier Castellano aboard, continuing the barn’s tradition of developing quality runners from their champion sire. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, he enjoys tactical relief. His recent form includes a close third-place finish at 24-1 in the Manila Stakes (Grade 3) where he lost by only a length to Zulu Kingdom while demonstrating his ability to outrun substantial odds.​

The breeding by Tiz the Law out of Constitution mare Tizfiz provides both class and stamina, though Tiz the Law has produced only 15% turf winners suggesting dirt might be his optimal surface. However, Tiz Dashing is half-sibling to Event Detail, a three-time winner who finished fourth in the Arlington Stakes (Grade 3) over turf at Churchill Downs, indicating the female family produces turf ability.​

Tagg’s patient development suggests readiness for this assignment despite inconsistent results. His 82 Beyer Speed Figure in the Manila represented a career-high, demonstrating modest improvement in each start. Castellano’s aggressive riding style suits horses requiring confident handling, and his tactical skills could secure favorable positioning from post 9.​

The concern involves his hit-or-miss pattern where he shows flashes of ability without sustained excellence. While handicappers have tried betting him with limited success, his competitive Manila effort suggests he belongs in graded company at attractive odds. At morning line odds of 6-1, he represents speculative value for exotic wagers but offers minimal confidence for win betting.​

Lazlo

Keri Brion trains this three-year-old gelding with Jaime Rodriguez aboard. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, he enjoys tactical relief. His most recent victory came at Laurel Park, though specific performance details weren’t extensively covered in available sources.​

Limited public information creates significant handicapping challenges. The breeding, pedigree, past performance patterns, and speed figures remain largely unknown without detailed racing history. At morning line odds of 15-1, he represents the longest shot in the field, reflecting limited public information and questionable class credentials.​

While longshots occasionally produce upsets in competitive graded stakes, Lazlo’s lack of public form and unknown ability create minimal confidence for any wagering scenarios. He represents an elimination candidate in most exotic structures unless handicappers possess insider information about hidden ability or significant improvement.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Stars and Strides holds the speed figure edge with his 86 Beyer from the Saranac Stakes victory, improving steadily from an 84 in his prior turf effort. His progression pattern suggests continued development, and Mott’s training typically produces peak performances when advancing horses into graded stakes. The 86 Beyer represents competitive graded stakes caliber, particularly for three-year-olds still developing through the fall.​

Mayor of Midnight’s specific Beyer figures weren’t published in available sources, creating uncertainty about his current ability level. However, Brown’s decision to enter him in graded stakes for his first stakes attempt signals confidence in competitive figures, and Brown runners typically produce solid numbers when properly spotted. His performance outfinishing older horses suggests figures in the 83-86 range based on typical Brown development patterns.

Tiz Dashing posted an 82 Beyer in the Manila Stakes representing his career-high, demonstrating steady progression without explosive improvement. Noble Confessor’s figures weren’t specifically detailed, though his maiden victory and subsequent struggles in graded company suggest numbers in the 80-84 range without peaks matching the top contenders.​

Soleil Volant’s Kent Stakes victory over soft turf likely produced figures in the 82-85 range based on typical Delaware Park stakes standards. His closing style and stamina suggest capability of matching or exceeding those numbers on favorable surfaces. Griffin’s Wharf’s runner-up finish to Stars and Strides suggests figures in the 84-86 range, competitive with this field but likely insufficient to reverse the Saranac result.​

The class analysis clearly favors Stars and Strides given his undefeated turf record and steady progression through allowance ranks. Mayor of Midnight brings Brown’s training and Prat’s brilliance, creating class advantages through connections despite limited public racing history. The remaining field shows competitive stakes form without dominant patterns, making them logical underneath plays in exotic wagers while facing challenges defeating the top two choices.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Recent Aqueduct inner turf trends show closers have fared particularly well in route races, creating optimal conditions for horses conserving energy through moderate early fractions. The 1 1/8-mile inner turf configuration starts horses deep in the backstretch, allowing tactical positioning without excessive early speed requirements. The rail placement at 27 feet provides fair conditions without extreme outside bias.​

Post 1 for Noble Confessor provides ideal tactical positioning for frontrunning or stalking tactics. Carmouche can save ground throughout while maintaining position flexibility, though the inside post occasionally creates traffic concerns entering the stretch. The rail journey maximizes ground savings while allowing tactical adjustments.​

Post 2 for Thundering creates favorable dynamics for Velazquez’s pressing tactics. The inside-middle draw allows securing stalking position without excessive early speed, positioning perfectly for the anticipated moderate pace scenario.​

Post 3 for Church and State provides neutral positioning without significant advantages or disadvantages. Davis can assess early pace development while positioning comfortably within striking range.​

Post 4 for Lazlo places him in mid-pack from a tactical perspective. Rodriguez must show alertness to secure favorable position without being shuffled back early.​

Post 5 for Soleil Volant suits his closing style, allowing Marin to rate patiently while tracking the pace. The middle post provides options without forcing immediate tactical decisions.​

Post 6 for Stars and Strides creates optimal tactical flexibility for Alvarado. He can assess pace development while securing stalking position without excessive early energy expenditure. The post allows multiple tactical options depending on how early fractions develop.​

Post 7 for Griffin’s Wharf forces Santana to navigate from outside-middle position. The draw doesn’t significantly hinder his stalking tactics but requires efficient positioning to avoid being wide throughout.​

Post 8 for Mayor of Midnight represents the most challenging assignment, forcing Prat to navigate from the extreme outside. However, Prat’s exceptional tactical skills typically overcome post disadvantages. The outside post actually provides advantages for closers by ensuring clear running lanes entering the stretch. Brown runners from outside posts often secure ideal stalking positions while avoiding traffic, making this draw potentially advantageous for Prat’s patient tactics.​

Post 9 for Tiz Dashing places him furthest outside, requiring Castellano to make quick decisions about positioning. The extreme outside post suits closers who can circle horses entering the stretch but creates challenges for horses requiring early positioning.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This Grade 3 turf stakes presents interesting wagering dynamics as the third leg of the late Pick 5 sequence featuring multiple graded stakes. Stars and Strides appears the logical favorite given his undefeated turf record and steady progression, but his 2-1 morning line odds offer modest value. Mayor of Midnight at 9-2 represents the primary value play given Chad Brown’s training and Flavien Prat’s record-setting form.​​

Win betting centers on the Stars and Strides versus Mayor of Midnight decision. Stars and Strides brings proven class through his Saranac victory and undefeated turf record, justifying favoritism despite modest odds. Mayor of Midnight offers superior value at 9-2 given Brown’s 30% win rate and Prat’s current dominance, creating compelling reasons to prefer value over probability in win betting scenarios.​

Exacta wagering provides strong value opportunities. Boxing Stars and Strides and Mayor of Midnight creates coverage of the two most likely winners at $4 minimum bet. A more aggressive approach uses Mayor of Midnight on top with Stars and Strides, Soleil Volant, and Noble Confessor underneath, creating a $6 ticket that provides full coverage of likely outcomes while prioritizing the value horse.​

Trifecta structures should emphasize the top two contenders in the first two positions while spreading underneath. Using Stars and Strides and Mayor of Midnight in the first two slots with Soleil Volant, Noble Confessor, Griffin’s Wharf, and Church and State filling the third position creates a $24 ticket with strong value potential. The trifecta payoff could reach substantial levels if Mayor of Midnight wins at 9-2 odds with moderate-priced horses filling place and show.​

Superfecta wagering becomes viable with the nine-horse field. A key box using Stars and Strides and Mayor of Midnight on top with Soleil Volant, Noble Confessor, Griffin’s Wharf, and Church and State underneath creates comprehensive coverage for moderate investment. Eliminating Lazlo, Tiz Dashing, and Thundering reduces ticket costs while maintaining realistic coverage of likely outcomes.​

Rolling exotic opportunities prove valuable given this race’s position in the late Pick 5 sequence. Using Stars and Strides and Mayor of Midnight as primary selections while including Soleil Volant as a saver creates affordable multi-race tickets. The mandatory payout Pick 5 adds pool value for sequential bettors constructing deeper tickets.​

Place and show betting on Mayor of Midnight at 9-2 offers value if odds drift higher. The place price should return approximately 2-1 or better, providing solid risk-reward for moderate risk-averse bettors. Show betting offers minimal value given likely heavy favorite concentration at the top of the board.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Mayor of Midnight – Chad Brown’s Irish-bred gelding represents the standout value selection in this competitive Grade 3 turf stakes. The combination of elite training, record-setting jockey form, and significant weight advantage creates nearly optimal winning conditions at attractive 9-2 morning line odds. Brown’s 30% win rate over the past 21 days reflects exceptional barn form, and his horses typically fire peak efforts when entered in graded stakes with weight allowances. His record with turf routers and European-bred horses proves particularly strong, having captured 36 NYRA training titles through sustained excellence developing horses for specific assignments. Flavien Prat’s presence creates enormous tactical advantages given his recent historic dominance. The French jockey set a NYRA single-card record with seven victories from ten mounts just days ago, never finishing outside the exacta while demonstrating superior timing and positioning skills. The Jockeys’ Guild recognized his brilliance naming him Jockey of the Week following dual Breeders Cup victories and the record-setting performance. The Brown-Prat partnership has flourished throughout 2025, producing multiple graded stakes victories through exceptional chemistry and tactical execution. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, Mayor of Midnight enjoys significant tactical relief that proves meaningful in stamina tests at 1 1/8 miles. The Irish breeding by Lope de Vega suggests natural aptitude for turf conditions, and European-bred horses typically excel when encountering yielding or soft surfaces at American tracks. Brown’s expertise developing European imports and patient conditioning of turf routers creates confidence in proper placement and peak form. The post 8 draw forces Prat to navigate from the outside, but his exceptional tactical skills typically overcome post disadvantages by securing clear running lanes while avoiding traffic complications. Brown runners from outside posts often execute perfect trips through superior conditioning and jockey skill, and Prat’s patience allows proper execution of come-from-behind tactics that suit the anticipated moderate pace. His progressive form development culminating in an impressive performance outfinishing older horses on his return from a break signals readiness for this graded stakes debut. Brown’s decision to enter him directly into Grade 3 company for his first stakes attempt indicates strong confidence in current ability, and when Brown advances developing three-year-olds into graded company with weight allowances and Prat aboard, they frequently produce upsets at value odds. The moderate expected pace should create optimal conditions for his closing style, allowing Prat to position comfortably while conserving energy for a sustained late kick. If Mayor of Midnight has developed as Brown’s placement suggests, the combination of elite connections, weight advantages, and current form make him the logical value win selection at 9-2 odds that offer superior risk-reward compared to the favorite’s 2-1 proposition.​

Place: Stars and Strides – Bill Mott’s undefeated-on-turf three-year-old colt brings proven class credentials that justify favoritism despite modest win value at 2-1 odds. His perfect 2-for-2 turf record includes the Saranac Stakes victory where he stalked and pounced with an inside rally to defeat Griffin’s Wharf by three-quarters of a length under Junior Alvarado, earning an 86 Beyer Speed Figure that demonstrates competitive graded stakes ability. The performance validated steady progression through allowance ranks, and Mott’s patient development of three-year-olds typically produces horses ready for graded stakes success when advanced into higher company. His breeding by Not This Time out of a First Samurai mare suggests versatility across surfaces, and his 4-for-4 lifetime record demonstrates genuine quality and consistency. The versatility proves exceptional, having won sprinting, routing, on fast and wet tracks while showing ability to execute multiple tactical styles depending on pace scenarios. Alvarado’s presence signals Mott’s confidence, continuing a productive partnership that has flourished throughout the three-year-old’s brief career. The Hall of Fame trainer recently captured his Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award and brings seven wins from 44 starters over recent weeks, indicating selective but effective placement. At 120 pounds receiving a two-pound weight allowance for non-graded stakes winners, he enjoys slight tactical relief that could prove meaningful in tight finishes. The post 6 draw provides optimal tactical flexibility, allowing Alvarado to assess early pace development while securing stalking position without excessive energy expenditure. His tactical speed suits the anticipated moderate pace, positioning him perfectly to unleash his characteristic late kick entering the stretch. The primary concern involves stepping into graded company for the first time after dominating allowance rivals, though his quality of victories and steady speed figure progression suggest he possesses the class necessary to compete at this level. However, at 2-1 odds, he offers limited win betting value despite quality credentials. The place position provides safer wagering at likely even-money or better prices, making him essential coverage in exacta and trifecta structures. If Mayor of Midnight encounters any trouble or fails to fire his best race, Stars and Strides possesses the proven class and tactical advantages to capitalize for victory. His undefeated turf record and steady development make him the logical place selection who provides safety while maintaining realistic upset potential if the favorite stumbles.​

Show: Soleil Volant – Graham Motion’s Kentucky-bred gelding represents the intriguing value play for show wagering following his breakthrough Kent Stakes victory at Delaware Park. His closing rally from sixth position on soft turf to nose out Thundering in a thrilling finish demonstrated both stamina and determination that Motion has developed through patient conditioning. The performance validated Motion’s assessment that the colt had been knocking on the door against tough competition and needed the 1 1/8-mile distance to showcase his best efforts. His fourth-place finish in the Old Dominion Derby behind World Beater proved he belongs in competitive stakes company despite facing possibly the best three-year-old turf horse in the country. The progression pattern suggests a developing horse hitting his stride at the perfect time in his three-year-old campaign, and Motion’s expertise with European-style turf routers through patient development typically produces horses peaking in late-season stakes assignments. At 120 pounds receiving a two-pound weight allowance for non-graded stakes winners, he enjoys slight tactical relief. Samuel Marin brings tactical awareness developed through Motion’s barn, and his patient riding style suits the gelding’s come-from-behind tactics perfectly. The breeding by Karakontie out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare provides European turf influence combined with American stamina, creating an ideal pedigree profile for 1 1/8-mile turf routes. His proven ability handling soft going at Delaware Park creates advantages if weather impacts the turf course, and his closing style suits the anticipated moderate pace scenario where tactical positioning and sustained finishing kicks determine results. The concern involves whether his Kent Stakes victory represents genuine stakes-caliber form or soft Delaware Park competition, though defeating Thundering who also enters this field provides form validation. Stepping into Grade 3 company against horses trained by Brown and Mott represents a significant class test, but Motion’s confidence entering him directly following the Kent victory signals belief in competitive ability. At projected double-digit odds likely 10-1 or higher, he represents legitimate show value who brings both realistic chances for better finishes and attractive show prices. The show position should return approximately 3-1 or better, providing solid risk-reward for moderate-risk wagering strategies while maintaining upset potential if pace scenarios develop perfectly. His proven stamina and strong finishing kick make him the logical show selection who offers both value and legitimate chances to impact the superfecta.​​

Alternative Exotic Plays:

Exacta Box: Mayor of Midnight-Stars and Strides ($4 minimum bet)

Exacta: Mayor of Midnight with Stars and Strides, Soleil Volant, Noble Confessor ($6 ticket)

Trifecta: Mayor of Midnight, Stars and Strides with Mayor of Midnight, Stars and Strides with Soleil Volant, Noble Confessor, Griffin’s Wharf, Church and State ($12 ticket)

Trifecta: Mayor of Midnight, Stars and Strides with Mayor of Midnight, Stars and Strides, Soleil Volant with ALL ($14 ticket for deeper coverage)

Superfecta Key Box: Mayor of Midnight, Stars and Strides with Mayor of Midnight, Stars and Strides, Soleil Volant, Noble Confessor with ALL ($14.40 ticket)

Late Pick 5 Coverage: Spread Mayor of Midnight and Stars and Strides with Soleil Volant saver

The race presents a competitive Grade 3 turf stakes where the value contender takes on the deserving favorite. Recent track trends favoring closers create optimal conditions for horses with patient tactics, benefiting both top selections. Mayor of Midnight appears poised to deliver his best effort at attractive odds while Stars and Strides provides class safety for exotic protection.

Race 8 – New York-Bred Two-Year-Old Colts and Geldings Maiden

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 1 1/16 Miles Outer turf. Purse $80,000. OUTER TURF FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred.​

Post Time: 3:09 PM

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

This New York-bred maiden race for two-year-olds over the outer turf course at 1 1/16 miles represents one of the most challenging handicapping puzzles on the card. The 16-horse field features predominantly first-time starters or horses with minimal racing experience, creating significant uncertainty about pace scenarios and running styles. Recent Aqueduct outer turf trends show closers have fared well in route races, particularly as two-year-olds often show inexperience in positioning and pace judgment.​

The anticipated pace likely unfolds moderately as inexperienced juveniles sort themselves out through the first turn and down the backstretch. Trainers typically instruct jockeys to establish comfortable positions without excessive early expenditure in maiden routes, allowing horses to learn racing fundamentals while conserving energy for stretch drives. The 1 1/16-mile distance proves demanding for two-year-olds still developing stamina, favoring horses with proper conditioning and tactical positioning.​

The outer turf configuration at Aqueduct creates a fair racing surface without extreme biases, though closers with strong finishing kicks often prevail when pace collapses or inexperienced leaders tire entering the stretch. Jockeys paired with patient trainers who emphasize long-term development over immediate results typically execute superior tactical plans, rating horses properly while teaching them to relax and finish.​

The elite trainer presence proves crucial in maiden races where connections matter more than established form. Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Mark Casse, George Weaver, and Linda Rice all enter horses, creating advantages through superior conditioning, jockey relationships, and developmental expertise.​

Big Frosty

Todd Pletcher sends out this two-year-old colt with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard, creating the most formidable partnership in the field. Pletcher’s record with two-year-old turf routers proves exceptional, having developed multiple champions and Grade 1 winners through patient campaigns emphasizing proper foundation over rushing immature horses. His recent Saratoga meet featured productive two-year-old development, with horses like Ted Noffey and Tommy Jo emerging as early Breeders Cup favorites after methodical progression.​

Velazquez’s presence signals Pletcher’s confidence in this colt’s readiness and ability. The Hall of Fame jockey only takes maiden mounts when he believes horses possess legitimate talent worthy of his time and expertise. Their partnership has produced countless maiden winners through superior tactical execution and patient development, allowing horses to learn racing while positioning for victories.​

The breeding and pedigree details weren’t extensively covered in available sources, creating some uncertainty about optimal surface preferences. However, Pletcher’s decision to debut him on turf rather than dirt suggests either breeding indica tions favoring grass or training patterns showing turf aptitude. Elite trainers like Pletcher rarely guess about surface preferences, utilizing extensive training observations and breeding analysis before making debut surface decisions.​

The post 11 draw from outside-middle position creates slight positioning challenges but shouldn’t prevent Velazquez from executing proper tactics. His experience allows proper navigation from any post position, and outside draws occasionally provide advantages by ensuring clear running lanes while avoiding early traffic. If Big Frosty possesses the talent Pletcher-Velazquez partnership suggests, the post won’t determine his fate.​

The concern involves limited public information about workouts, training patterns, and specific ability indicators. However, Pletcher maiden winners typically show professional debuts featuring tactical awareness and finishing ability, validating their morning training. At projected odds likely in the 3-1 to 5-1 range given the connections, he represents the logical favorite whose talent justifies confidence despite debut status.​

Kotlikoff

Bill Mott sends out this two-year-old colt with Junior Alvarado aboard, continuing their productive partnership that flourished throughout 2025. Mott recently captured his Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award following a championship season highlighted by training Sovereignty to multiple Grade 1 victories before illness forced his Breeders Cup Classic scratch. The Hall of Fame trainer’s expertise with turf horses dates to his association with Allen Paulson’s powerful stable, establishing him as one of racing’s premier grass trainers.​

Alvarado’s chemistry with Mott runners proves exceptional, having guided Sovereignty through his championship campaign with tactical brilliance and patient execution. The partnership’s success throughout 2025 creates confidence in any maiden assignment, as Mott typically enters horses only when he believes they’re ready to perform competitively. His patient development philosophy emphasizes proper foundation over rushing immature horses, suggesting Kotlikoff has shown sufficient morning ability to warrant debut.​​

The breeding and specific training patterns weren’t detailed in available sources, creating handicapping challenges without concrete ability indicators. However, Mott’s selective approach with maidens means horses entered possess legitimate talent worthy of racing. His seven wins from 44 starters over recent weeks indicates careful placement rather than frequent entries, suggesting quality over quantity approach.​​

The post 5 draw provides neutral tactical positioning without significant advantages or disadvantages. Alvarado can assess early pace development while securing comfortable mid-pack position, perfect for rating a maiden learning racing fundamentals. If Kotlikoff has developed as Mott’s entry suggests, the Mott-Alvarado partnership creates formidable opposition for any horse in this field.​

At projected odds likely 4-1 to 6-1 given connections quality, Kotlikoff represents strong value as a potential upset threat. Mott maiden winners often show professional debuts featuring tactical awareness and proper finishing ability, validating his training expertise. The Hall of Fame credentials and Alvarado partnership elevate him above connections alone might suggest.​​

Snickery

Mark Casse sends out this two-year-old gelding with Javier Castellano aboard, bringing dual Hall of Fame credentials to this maiden assignment. Casse has established himself as one of North America’s premier developers of juvenile talent, having celebrated his 4,000th career victory in July 2025. His record at Saratoga proves particularly impressive, with nine of his 15 winners during the 2024 meet coming from two-year-old ranks.​

Castellano’s aggressive riding style suits maidens requiring confident handling and tactical positioning. His experience allows proper execution of come-from-behind tactics or pressing scenarios depending on pace development. The Casse-Castellano partnership has produced multiple stakes winners through superior conditioning and jockey skill, creating confidence in any maiden assignment.​

Casse’s developmental philosophy emphasizes building proper foundation through patient campaigns, allowing horses to learn racing while developing stamina and tactical awareness. His success with juveniles reflects superior training methods and talent identification, consistently producing horses who improve beyond their maiden victories into stakes company.​

The post 4 draw provides favorable tactical positioning for Castellano’s execution. He can secure mid-pack stalking position without excessive early speed, perfect for rating a maiden while teaching racing fundamentals. The inside-middle draw allows multiple tactical options depending on how early fractions develop.​

Limited specific information about breeding, workouts, and training patterns creates handicapping challenges. However, Casse’s entry with Castellano signals confidence in competitive ability, and his record developing two-year-olds demands serious respect. At projected odds 8-1 to 12-1, Snickery represents value as a legitimate contender who brings elite connections without favorite price.​

Newlyn

George Weaver sends out this two-year-old colt with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard, bringing hot trainer form to this maiden assignment. Weaver recently captured his first Breeders Cup victory when Cy Fair won the Juvenile Turf Sprint, validating his expertise developing juvenile turf runners. Over the past three years, no trainer has found more success with two-year-old turf sprinters than Weaver, establishing him as a specialist in this division.​

Santana’s presence signals competitive intent, as the leading rider typically gravitates toward live mounts with legitimate winning chances. His tactical skills could produce favorable positioning from post 8, allowing proper execution of stalking or closing tactics depending on pace development. The Weaver-Santana partnership brings capable connections without the Hall of Fame credentials of Pletcher or Mott.​

Weaver’s recent Breeders Cup success with Cy Fair demonstrates his ability to develop juveniles who improve rapidly through proper conditioning and patient campaigns. His willingness to spot horses appropriately rather than rush them creates confidence in proper placement decisions. The entry of Newlyn suggests morning training indicates readiness for competitive debut.​

The post 8 draw forces navigation from outside-middle position but shouldn’t prevent Santana from securing favorable position. The two-turn configuration provides ample time to work out tactical positioning without immediate decisions. If Newlyn possesses the talent Weaver’s recent success suggests, the post won’t determine his fate.​

At projected odds 10-1 to 15-1, Newlyn represents intriguing value as a potential upset threat. Weaver’s hot form and proven expertise with juvenile turf runners creates confidence despite limited public information. His Breeders Cup victory just days ago reflects current barn sharpness that could translate to this maiden assignment.​

True Adirondacker and Jack’s World

Linda Rice sends out two entries in this maiden route, bringing her expertise with state-bred horses and intimate knowledge of Aqueduct to the assignment. Rice was the first woman to win a training title on the New York circuit at Saratoga in 2009, subsequently capturing multiple titles at both Aqueduct and Belmont. Her accomplishments include sweeping graded stakes races for two-year-old males at Saratoga with City Zip, who completed the Saratoga Special-Sanford-Hopeful triple in 2000.​

True Adirondacker draws post 15 with Jose Lezcano aboard, while Jack’s World gets post 13 with Dylan Davis handling the mount. The dual entry creates interesting wagering dynamics, as trainers running multiple horses typically signal confidence in at least one entry’s chances. Rice’s knowledge of both horses’ abilities and current form provides advantages in tactical planning and jockey instructions.​

Rice’s record with New York-breds proves exceptional, having dominated state-bred competition throughout her career. Her 29% win rate over recent weeks indicates strong current barn form, and her intimate familiarity with Aqueduct’s turf course creates tactical advantages. When Rice enters maidens at her home track with competent jockeys, they merit serious consideration despite limited public information.​

The outside posts force both jockeys to navigate from wide draws, creating positioning challenges in a 16-horse field. However, Rice’s training typically prepares horses for various tactical scenarios, and her jockeys understand proper execution from any post position. At projected longshot odds, both entries represent speculative value for deep exotic wagers.​

Remaining Contenders

The remaining horses in this 16-horse field bring varying levels of connections quality and public information. Several debut runners from competent trainers merit consideration for exotic wagering without sufficient evidence to warrant win betting confidence.

Make a Prediction draws post 10 with Jose Lezcano aboard for trainer James Ferraro. The breeding includes blinkered notation suggesting equipment designed to improve focus. Golden Marsh enters from post 3 with Jose Gomez for David Donk. Mosconi gets post 9 with Christopher Elliott handling the mount for H. James Bond.

The remaining horses represent elimination candidates for most exotic structures given limited public information and questionable connections quality. In maiden races featuring 16 horses with minimal form, narrowing focus to elite trainer entries proves essential for profitable wagering.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Speed figure analysis proves impossible for a maiden race featuring predominantly first-time starters. The field’s quality depends entirely on connections reputation and training methods rather than established racing performances. Elite trainers like Pletcher, Mott, and Casse typically produce maiden winners who earn competitive figures in the 75-85 range, validating their morning training and developmental expertise.​

The class analysis clearly favors horses from Hall of Fame trainers given their proven records developing juvenile talent. Pletcher’s championship credentials combined with Velazquez’s brilliance creates the highest probability selection despite limited public information. Mott’s patient development and Alvarado partnership provides strong secondary option, while Casse’s hot juvenile form makes him dangerous at value odds.​

Weaver’s recent Breeders Cup success establishes him as a legitimate threat in juvenile turf races, though his overall record doesn’t match the Hall of Fame trio. Rice’s state-bred expertise and home track advantages make her entries live longshots worth exotic consideration.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Recent Aqueduct outer turf trends show fair racing surfaces without extreme post position biases. The 16-horse field spreads across the entire starting gate, creating various tactical scenarios depending on individual running styles. Inside posts occasionally create traffic concerns in large maiden fields where inexperienced horses cause positioning problems, while outside posts ensure clear running lanes at the cost of additional ground coverage.​

Posts 1-4 provide ground-saving advantages but risk traffic complications if horses ahead falter or drift. Posts 5-8 offer neutral positioning with tactical flexibility. Posts 9-16 force wide journeys but ensure clear running lanes, particularly valuable for closers with strong finishing kicks. The two-turn configuration allows ample time for positioning adjustments without immediate tactical decisions.​

Jockey skill proves more important than post position in maiden races where tactical awareness and patience determine results. Elite riders like Velazquez and Alvarado typically overcome post disadvantages through superior timing and positioning decisions, while lesser jockeys struggle from any draw.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This maiden race presents significant wagering challenges given limited public information and 16-horse field complexity. The betting strategy must emphasize elite connections over unproven form, focusing wagering on horses trained by Hall of Fame conditioners with proven juvenile development records.​

Win betting centers on Big Frosty despite modest value given Pletcher-Velazquez partnership superiority. The connections justify favoritism even without public workouts or established form. Maiden races reward trainer reputation and jockey skill over speculative longshots.​

Exacta wagering should prioritize top connections in first two positions while spreading underneath with value trainers. Using Big Frosty and Kotlikoff on top with Snickery, Newlyn, True Adirondacker, and Jack’s World underneath creates $12 ticket providing comprehensive coverage. Reverse exacta adding Snickery on top with Big Frosty second provides upset protection.​

Trifecta structures require depth given field size and uncertainty. Using Big Frosty, Kotlikoff, and Snickery in first two slots while spreading underneath with Newlyn and Rice entries creates tickets ranging from $18 to $36 depending on coverage depth. The trifecta payoff could reach substantial levels if longshots fill minor positions.​

Superfecta wagering becomes viable with proper elimination strategy. Using Big Frosty and Kotlikoff on top with deeper coverage underneath maintains manageable costs while providing realistic winning chances. Eliminating horses from questionable trainers reduces ticket expense while maintaining coverage of likely outcomes.​

Rolling exotic opportunities exist given this race’s position late in the card. However, maiden race uncertainty makes using multiple horses essential for Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequences. Spreading Big Frosty, Kotlikoff, Snickery, and Newlyn provides affordable coverage while maintaining winning probability.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Big Frosty – Todd Pletcher’s two-year-old colt paired with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez represents the standout selection despite limited public information about workouts or training patterns. The combination of championship training and elite jockey skill creates nearly unbeatable conditions in maiden races where connections matter more than established form. Pletcher’s record with two-year-old turf routers proves exceptional, having developed multiple champions through patient campaigns emphasizing proper foundation. His recent Saratoga success with juveniles like Ted Noffey and Tommy Jo, who emerged as early Breeders Cup favorites, demonstrates his current ability to identify and develop elite talent. Velazquez’s presence signals Pletcher’s strong confidence, as the Hall of Fame jockey only takes maiden mounts when he believes horses possess legitimate winning ability. Their partnership has produced countless maiden victories through superior tactical execution, allowing horses to learn racing while positioning for success. While breeding and specific training details remain unknown, Pletcher’s decision to debut him on turf suggests either pedigree advantages or training patterns indicating grass aptitude. Elite trainers rarely guess about surface preferences, utilizing extensive observations before making debut decisions. The post 11 draw creates slight positioning challenges but won’t prevent Velazquez from executing proper tactics given his experience navigating from any position. At projected odds likely 3-1 to 5-1, he offers modest value that’s justified by connection superiority. Maiden races reward trainer reputation and jockey brilliance over speculative longshots, making Big Frosty the logical favorite whose talent warrants confidence despite debut uncertainty.​

Place: Kotlikoff – Bill Mott’s two-year-old colt brings Hall of Fame training credentials and Junior Alvarado partnership that flourished throughout championship 2025 season. Mott recently captured Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award following exceptional campaign highlighted by training Sovereignty to multiple Grade 1 victories before Breeders Cup scratch. His expertise with turf horses dates to association with Allen Paulson’s powerful stable, establishing him as premier grass trainer whose patient development philosophy produces stakes winners from maiden ranks. Alvarado’s chemistry with Mott runners proves exceptional through Sovereignty’s championship campaign, demonstrating tactical brilliance and patient execution that translates perfectly to maiden route assignments. The partnership’s sustained success creates confidence in any maiden entry, as Mott typically enters horses only when morning training validates competitive readiness. His selective approach means horses entered possess legitimate talent worthy of racing, and his seven wins from 44 recent starters indicates quality over quantity philosophy. The post 5 draw provides neutral tactical positioning allowing Alvarado to assess pace development while securing comfortable mid-pack position perfect for rating maidens. At projected odds 4-1 to 6-1, Kotlikoff represents strong value as potential upset threat who brings Hall of Fame credentials without favorite pricing. Mott maiden winners typically show professional debuts featuring tactical awareness and finishing ability that validates his training expertise. The combination of elite training, proven jockey partnership, and patient development creates formidable opposition capable of defeating any horse in this field if talent matches connections quality.​​

Show: Snickery – Mark Casse’s two-year-old gelding brings dual Hall of Fame credentials and hot juvenile form to this maiden assignment. Casse celebrated his 4,000th career victory in July 2025, cementing his status among North America’s elite trainers, and his record at Saratoga proves particularly impressive with nine of 15 winners during 2024 meet coming from two-year-old ranks. His developmental philosophy emphasizing proper foundation through patient campaigns consistently produces horses who improve beyond maiden victories into stakes company. Javier Castellano’s aggressive riding style suits maidens requiring confident handling, and his experience allows proper tactical execution from any position. The Casse-Castellano partnership has produced multiple stakes winners, creating confidence despite limited public information about this specific horse. The post 4 draw provides favorable inside-middle positioning allowing Castellano to secure stalking position without excessive early speed. At projected odds 8-1 to 12-1, Snickery represents legitimate value as contender who brings elite connections at attractive price compared to Pletcher and Mott favorites. Casse’s expertise developing juveniles demands serious respect, and his entry with quality jockey signals confidence in competitive ability. The show position provides safety for moderate-risk wagering while maintaining realistic chances for better finishes if talent matches connections pedigree.​

Alternative Exotic Plays:

Exacta Box: Big Frosty-Kotlikoff ($4 minimum bet)

Exacta: Big Frosty with Kotlikoff, Snickery, Newlyn ($6 ticket)

Exacta: Big Frosty, Kotlikoff with Big Frosty, Kotlikoff, Snickery, Newlyn, True Adirondacker, Jack’s World ($12 ticket)

Trifecta: Big Frosty, Kotlikoff with Big Frosty, Kotlikoff, Snickery with Snickery, Newlyn, True Adirondacker, Jack’s World ($12 ticket)

Trifecta: Big Frosty, Kotlikoff, Snickery with ALL with ALL ($42 ticket for maximum coverage)

Superfecta Key: Big Frosty, Kotlikoff with Big Frosty, Kotlikoff, Snickery, Newlyn with ALL with ALL ($48 ticket)

The race presents a challenging maiden featuring limited public information and 16-horse field complexity. Elite trainer connections prove essential for profitable wagering, as Hall of Fame conditioners consistently produce maiden winners who validate their morning training through professional debuts. Big Frosty’s Pletcher-Velazquez partnership justifies favoritism while Kotlikoff and Snickery provide value alternatives.​

Race 9 – Mother Goose Stakes (Grade 2)

STAKES. 1 1/8 Miles Dirt. Purse $300,000. Mother Goose Stakes (Grade 2). FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Lasix not allowed within 48 hours of post time pursuant to HISA Rule 4212. By subscription of $300 each which should accompany the nomination; $1,500 to pass the entry box and an additional $1,500 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $1,500 in addition to the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. 122 lbs. Non-winners of a Graded Sweepstakes allowed 2 lbs.; of a Sweepstakes in 2025 allowed 4 lbs. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner.​

Post Time: 3:39 PM

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

This Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes presents a fascinating tactical puzzle featuring nine three-year-old fillies with varying class credentials and running styles. The race holds historical significance as a traditional follow-up to the Kentucky Oaks, with 86 Oaks starters competing in this event since 1976 and 20 winners completing the prestigious double, including champions like Rachel Alexandra, Untapable, and Davona Dale. Recent Aqueduct main track conditions show fair racing surfaces without extreme biases, though speed has held advantages in certain configurations.​

The anticipated pace likely unfolds moderately through the first turn as fillies sort positions approaching the backstretch. So There She Was brings frontrunning credentials from her Remington Park Oaks victory where she tracked early leader Lemon Zest before drawing clear in the stretch. Her presence creates tactical complications for other speed-oriented fillies who must decide whether to engage or concede position entering the first turn.​

Lemon Zest demonstrated willingness to contest the lead through aggressive early fractions at Remington Park, setting splits of 24.35, 48.60, and 1:13.98 before weakening late. The rematch creates intriguing tactical dynamics, particularly with Flavien Prat now replacing Luis Saez aboard Lemon Zest. Prat’s superior timing and patience could produce different tactical execution, potentially rating her off the pace rather than engaging in early speed duels.​

Drexel Hill brings proven closing ability from her Kentucky Oaks performance where she rallied from last of 13 and nine lengths off the pace to finish a courageous runner-up. Her deep closing style requires honest early fractions to set up her late kick, making the anticipated moderate pace potentially advantageous for her tactical execution. If early leaders engage through contested fractions, her sustained stamina could prove decisive entering the stretch.​

Chad Brown’s dual entry creates strategic advantages through multiple tactical options. Fully Subscribed showed tactical speed in her recent allowance second while Filly Freedom’s maiden victory featured strong finishing ability. Mott’s Cue the Duckboats brings grinding sustained running style suited for route distances, positioning her as another closer dependent on proper pace setup.​

Drexel Hill

Whit Beckman sends out the Kentucky Oaks runner-up as the deserving morning line favorite at 7-2, making her first start since finishing a courageous second in the Run for the Lilies at Churchill Downs on May 5. The five-month layoff creates both intrigue and concern, as connections originally planned a longer rest before deciding to return earlier than anticipated in this Grade 2 assignment. Ben Curtis handles the riding assignment from post 9, continuing their partnership from the Oaks effort.​

Her Kentucky Oaks performance proved nothing short of heroic, rallying from dead last in a field of 13 after spotting the leaders nine lengths entering the far turn. She closed with sustained power through the stretch, missing victory by only 2 1/4 lengths while demonstrating exceptional stamina and determination. That effort earned competitive Beyer Speed Figures validating her class credentials for Grade 1 company, suggesting she possesses ability well beyond this Grade 2 level.​

The breeding by Good Magic out of the Bernardini mare Boone’s Pride provides both class and stamina for classic distances. Good Magic has established himself as a premier young sire producing quality runners across surfaces and distances, while the Bernardini influence through the dam adds additional stamina and dirt capability. The pedigree profile suggests natural aptitude for 1 1/8-mile route tests on main tracks.​

Beckman’s patient approach following the Oaks reflects sound judgment, allowing the filly proper recovery time before returning to competitive action. The five-month layoff proves substantial for a three-year-old still developing physically, but connections clearly believe she’s fit and ready for this assignment. Her morning workouts weren’t extensively detailed in available sources, creating some uncertainty about current sharpness.​

At 120 pounds receiving a two-pound weight allowance for non-graded stakes winners, she carries more weight than most rivals but less than Queen Azteca’s 122 pounds. The weight differential proves meaningful over 1 1/8 miles where stamina and sustained speed determine results. However, her proven class credentials suggest she possesses ability to overcome the slight weight disadvantage if returning to Oaks form.​

The post 9 draw forces Curtis to navigate from the extreme outside, creating positioning challenges in a nine-horse field. However, her deep closing style actually benefits from outside posts by ensuring clear running lanes without traffic complications. Curtis can break without urgency, allow early leaders to establish position, then circle horses entering the far turn while ensuring clear passage for her sustained late kick.​

The concern centers on the five-month layoff and whether she returns with Oaks sharpness after extended rest. Three-year-old fillies typically improve dramatically through summer and fall campaigns with regular racing, while layoffs can blunt development and competitive edge. However, her exceptional Oaks performance suggests genuine talent capable of overcoming layoff disadvantages through superior class.​

Fully Subscribed

Chad Brown sends out this intriguing three-year-old filly making her stakes debut following a narrow neck defeat in recent allowance company. Dylan Davis handles the riding assignment from post 6 at morning line odds of 4-1, making her the second betting choice behind Drexel Hill. The post 6 draw provides favorable tactical positioning for Brown’s first entry, allowing Davis to assess early pace development while securing comfortable mid-pack position.​

Her most recent performance featured an impressive effort finishing second by only a neck while defeating the third-place finisher by 8 3/4 lengths, demonstrating clear separation from the remainder of the field. The performance came in her second start following a layoff and first attempt at the 1 1/8-mile distance, suggesting she appreciated the route test and possesses room for improvement with added fitness. Brown’s patient development allowed her proper foundation through allowance ranks before advancing to stakes company.​

Brown’s stable form remains exceptional with 18 wins from 60 starters over recent weeks, reflecting 30% win rate that underscores current barn sharpness. His record with developing three-year-old fillies through patient campaigns proves particularly strong, consistently producing horses who improve dramatically when stretched to route distances. The decision to enter both Fully Subscribed and Filly Freedom signals strong confidence in his fillies’ current abilities.​

The breeding and specific pedigree details weren’t extensively covered in available sources, creating some handicapping challenges without concrete ability indicators. However, Brown’s placement decisions typically reflect superior talent evaluation, and his willingness to enter her in Grade 2 company for her stakes debut suggests morning training validates competitive ability at this level.​

At 118 pounds with a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, she receives significant tactical relief compared to So There She Was at 120 and Queen Azteca at 122. The weight advantage proves meaningful in stamina tests where sustained speed through two turns determines results. Brown runners often produce career-best efforts when stepping into stakes company with weight allowances, making her a dangerous contender despite limited public racing experience.​

Davis brings capable riding without the star power of Prat or Alvarado, potentially creating slight tactical disadvantages in competitive graded stakes where positioning and timing prove crucial. However, his familiarity with Brown’s training methods and tactical instructions provides advantages in executing proper race strategy. The post 6 draw allows multiple tactical options depending on how early fractions develop.​

The concern involves stepping directly from narrow allowance defeat into Grade 2 company facing proven stakes winners and a Kentucky Oaks runner-up. While her recent second proved visually impressive, the quality of allowance competition rarely matches graded stakes standards. However, Brown’s placement typically overcomes class concerns through superior training and talent identification.​

Lemon Zest

Brad Cox sends out this Godolphin homebred three-year-old filly with Flavien Prat now handling the mount, creating a formidable partnership that has dominated 2025 racing. The Nyquist filly returns to competitive stakes action following her disappointing runner-up finish as the 2-5 favorite in the Remington Park Oaks where So There She Was defeated her by 2 3/4 lengths after tracking her aggressive early pace.​

Cox’s stable has earned more than $23 million in 2025, establishing him among North America’s premier trainers with consistent success across divisions. His record with fillies appreciating longer distances proves particularly strong, and the Cox-Prat partnership brings championship credentials to this assignment. Prat recently set a NYRA single-card record with seven victories, demonstrating current brilliance that creates enormous tactical advantages.​

Her racing record shows two wins from three lifetime starts before the Remington setback. She broke her maiden impressively at Churchill Downs under Saez before clearing an allowance condition at Ellis Park, suggesting steady progression through the ranks. The Remington Park Oaks represented her first venture into stakes company, and while she failed to hold off So There She Was, the performance validated competitive ability at this level.​

The breeding by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of the Bernardini mare Larkin provides classic distance influence from both sire and broodmare sire. Nyquist has established himself producing quality dirt runners appreciating route distances, while Bernardini’s stamina influence through the dam creates an ideal pedigree profile for 1 1/8-mile tests. The Godolphin homebred status reflects quality bloodstock that typically competes in elite company.​

At 118 pounds with a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners in 2025, she receives tactical relief compared to So There She Was. The rematch creates fascinating dynamics, particularly with Prat’s superior timing potentially producing different tactical execution than Saez’s aggressive approach at Remington. Rather than engaging in early speed duels, Prat may rate her off the pace, allowing her to conserve energy for a sustained late kick.​

The post 3 draw provides favorable inside-middle positioning allowing Prat to assess early pace development while maintaining tactical flexibility. If So There She Was establishes frontrunning position from post 8, Prat can secure stalking position on the rail or slightly off, perfect for his patient tactics. The Cox training combined with Prat’s brilliance creates conditions for dramatic improvement from the Remington effort.​

The concern centers on her established pattern of failing to sustain her speed when pressed through aggressive early fractions. At Remington, she set demanding splits before weakening noticeably entering the stretch when So There She Was challenged. While Prat’s tactics may alleviate that concern, she must prove capable of rating kindly off the pace without losing her competitive edge through overly conservative tactics.​

Filly Freedom

Chad Brown’s second entry brings intriguing value at morning line odds of 15-1 despite making her stakes debut following an impressive maiden victory. Ricardo Santana Jr. handles the riding assignment from post 5, continuing Brown’s pattern of pairing quality jockeys with developing fillies. The breeding out of Grade 1-placed Ghostzapper mare Zapperkat provides both class and stamina, while her third dam Rokeby Rosie represents a half-sister to Hall of Famer, adding significant pedigree depth.​

Brown’s willingness to enter two fillies signals strong confidence in both horses’ current abilities, and his placement decisions typically reflect superior talent evaluation. While public information about her maiden victory and workout patterns remains limited, Brown runners making stakes debuts following patient development through allowance ranks frequently produce upsets at value odds. His 30% win rate over recent weeks indicates horses exiting his barn arrive fit and ready for peak performances.​

Santana brings championship riding credentials and aggressive tactical style suited for fillies requiring confident handling. His ability to position horses favorably while conserving energy for late kicks creates advantages in competitive stakes where timing determines results. The post 5 draw provides neutral tactical positioning without significant advantages or disadvantages, allowing Santana to execute Brown’s instructions based on pace development.​

At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance, she enjoys tactical relief compared to So There She Was and Queen Azteca. Brown fillies often produce career-best efforts when stepping into stakes company with weight advantages, particularly when stretched to route distances where his patient training produces sustained stamina. If she possesses the talent Brown’s entry suggests, the weight relief combined with superior conditioning could produce a meaningful upset.​

The concern involves limited public racing experience and unknown speed figures compared to proven stakes performers. Making one’s stakes debut in Grade 2 company facing a Kentucky Oaks runner-up represents a significant challenge that maiden form rarely overcomes. However, at 15-1 odds, she represents legitimate exotic value if Brown has identified hidden talent worthy of this ambitious placement.​

So There She Was

Doug O’Neill sends out the Remington Park Oaks winner seeking to validate that stakes breakthrough against higher-quality opposition. The three-year-old Munnings filly drew post 8 with Joel Rosario handling the mount, creating a capable partnership for this Grade 2 challenge. At 120 pounds receiving a two-pound weight allowance for non-graded stakes winners, she carries more weight than most rivals based on her Remington victory.​

Her Remington performance proved visually impressive, tracking pacesetter Lemon Zest through demanding early fractions before drawing clear in the stretch for a 2 3/4-length victory in 1:45.56. She demonstrated both tactical speed sufficient to secure stalking position and sustained stamina to outlast the favorite through aggressive tempo. The victory validated competitive stakes ability while earning $120,000 to boost career earnings to $282,620 from seven starts with two wins, three seconds, and one third.​

O’Neill’s record speaks for itself as a two-time Kentucky Derby winner with I’ll Have Another and Nyquist, establishing him among the sport’s premier trainers despite operating primarily from his California base. His willingness to ship her across the country for this Grade 2 assignment signals confidence in her ability to compete at this level. Local trainer Mindy Willis handled her conditioning at Remington, with O’Neill noting she arrived ready to run.​

The breeding by Munnings out of the Take Charge Indy mare Risk Premium provides sprint speed influence from Munnings combined with stamina from Take Charge Indy, creating a pedigree profile suited for middle distances. Munnings has established himself as a premier sire of speed horses who occasionally stretch to route distances effectively, and her Remington performance validated route capability.​

The post 8 draw forces Rosario to navigate from the outside, creating positioning challenges similar to those faced at Remington where she successfully tracked early leaders. If she can duplicate that tactical execution, the outside post shouldn’t prevent securing favorable stalking position. However, the competitive nature of this field means early positioning battles could prove more intense than at Remington.​

The concern centers on whether her Remington victory represents genuine Grade 2 ability or soft regional competition. While defeating Lemon Zest provides form validation, the favorite’s subsequent failure creates questions about Remington field quality. Shipping from Oklahoma to New York and facing Kentucky Oaks runner-up Drexel Hill plus multiple Chad Brown and Bill Mott fillies represents a significant class test.​

Cue the Duckboats

Bill Mott sends out this developing three-year-old filly who improved steadily throughout her 2025 campaign. Junior Alvarado handles the riding assignment from post 7, continuing their productive partnership that flourished throughout Mott’s championship season. The filly’s patient progression through the ranks reflects Mott’s typical developmental philosophy, building proper foundation before attempting graded stakes company.​

Her recent form includes a solid second-place finish in the Grade 3 Delaware Oaks behind a subsequent Grade 1 winner, validating competitive ability in stakes company. Mott has patiently stretched her out to route distances, and she appears ideally suited for the 1 1/8-mile configuration with her grinding sustained running style. The Hall of Fame trainer recently captured Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award, and his seven wins from 44 recent starters indicates selective but effective placement.​

Alvarado’s chemistry with Mott runners proves exceptional, having guided champion Sovereignty through his Grade 1 campaign before Breeders Cup scratch. Their partnership brings tactical brilliance and patient execution that translates perfectly to developing fillies learning to rate properly through two-turn tests. Alvarado’s familiarity with Aqueduct provides advantages in positioning and timing moves on the home track.​

The breeding and specific pedigree details weren’t extensively covered, creating some handicapping challenges. However, Mott’s entry with Alvarado signals confidence in competitive ability, and his record developing three-year-old fillies through patient campaigns demands serious respect. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance, she enjoys tactical relief that could prove meaningful.​

The post 7 draw provides neutral outside-middle positioning, allowing Alvarado to assess early pace development while positioning comfortably for his closing tactics. If the anticipated moderate pace unfolds honestly, her sustained stamina could produce strong finishing kick entering the stretch. However, limited specific performance details and speed figures create uncertainty about true ability level compared to proven Grade 2 performers.​

Queen Azteca

Rodolphe Brisset sends out this international acquisition by Team Valor carrying field-high weight of 122 pounds based on her successful 2025 campaign. Jose Lezcano handles the riding assignment from post 2 at morning line odds of 12-1, making her a longshot despite carrying top weight. The weight assignment reflects competitive stakes form, though giving up four pounds to most rivals creates significant stamina challenges over 1 1/8 miles.​

Team Valor International acquired this Sharp Azteca filly following her Group 3 victory overseas, bringing her to North America for the fall stakes series. Barry Irwin’s operation has long specialized in identifying international talent capable of competing successfully in American racing, and Queen Azteca’s acquisition suggests they identified quality worthy of graded stakes campaigns.​

Her recent form includes competitive efforts in stakes company, though specific performance details and speed figures weren’t extensively covered. She competed in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga where she faced elite competition, demonstrating willingness to compete at high levels. Brisset’s training indicates competent handling, and Lezcano brings capable riding to the assignment.​

The concern centers on carrying 122 pounds while conceding four pounds to most rivals. Weight differentials prove particularly meaningful in route races testing stamina, and giving up weight to proven performers like Drexel Hill and quality fillies from Brown and Mott stables creates significant obstacles. At 12-1 odds, she represents elimination in most wagering structures unless handicappers possess insider information suggesting hidden improvement.​

Remaining Contenders

Being Myself makes her stakes debut for trainer Cherie DeVaux with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard from post 1. The Curlin filly brings quality breeding and Velazquez’s championship credentials to this assignment at 6-1 morning line odds. DeVaux has developed quality fillies throughout her career, including championship candidate She Feels Pretty who earned consideration for multiple Eclipse Awards. While public information about Being Myself remains limited, the Velazquez partnership elevates her chances beyond connections alone might suggest.​

Ourdaydreaminggirl rounds out the field from post 4 with Eliseo Ruiz handling the mount for Louis Linder Jr. at 8-1 odds. Limited public information creates handicapping challenges without detailed form analysis or speed figures. She represents a speculative exotic play without sufficient evidence to warrant confidence in competitive scenarios.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Drexel Hill holds clear speed figure and class advantages through her Kentucky Oaks runner-up finish, having competed successfully in Grade 1 company against champions. Her Beyer Speed Figures from the Oaks likely exceed anything this field has produced, validating superior class credentials. If she returns to Oaks form following the five-month layoff, she possesses ability well beyond this Grade 2 level.​

So There She Was earned competitive figures from her Remington Park Oaks victory, though translating regional stakes standards to NYRA circuit competition creates uncertainty about true ability. Her defeat of Lemon Zest provides form validation, suggesting figures in the 85-90 range competitive with this field but likely insufficient to defeat Drexel Hill at her best.​

Lemon Zest’s figures from her maiden and allowance victories likely fall in the 82-88 range, competitive for developing three-year-old fillies without peak performances. Her Remington defeat raises questions about sustained stamina, though Prat’s tactics may produce improved figure production through more conservative early positioning.​

Fully Subscribed and Filly Freedom lack published speed figures from their limited starts, creating uncertainty about true ability compared to proven performers. However, Brown’s training typically produces figures in competitive ranges when horses step into stakes company, suggesting numbers in the 83-88 range based on his developmental patterns.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Recent Aqueduct main track trends show fair racing surfaces without extreme post position biases. The 1 1/8-mile distance starts from the backstretch, allowing ample time for tactical positioning without immediate decisions. Inside posts occasionally create traffic concerns if horses ahead falter, while outside posts ensure clear running lanes at the cost of additional ground coverage.​

Post 1 for Being Myself provides rail advantages for ground saving but risks traffic complications. Velazquez’s superior positioning skills typically overcome inside post disadvantages through proper timing and tactical awareness.​

Post 2 for Queen Azteca creates favorable inside-middle positioning, though her top weight assignment negates positional advantages. Lezcano can secure stalking position without excessive early speed.​

Post 3 for Lemon Zest provides ideal tactical positioning for Prat’s execution. He can assess early pace development while positioning comfortably on or near the rail, perfect for his patient tactics.​

Posts 4-7 offer neutral positioning with tactical flexibility for the remaining contenders. The middle-pack draws allow multiple options depending on how early fractions develop.​

Post 8 for So There She Was forces outside navigation but suits her frontrunning or pressing tactics by ensuring clear early positioning. Rosario can establish position without traffic concerns.​

Post 9 for Drexel Hill represents the most challenging assignment, forcing Curtis to navigate from extreme outside. However, her deep closing style actually benefits from outside posts by ensuring clear running lanes for her sustained late kick.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes presents fascinating wagering dynamics as the penultimate leg of the late Pick 5 sequence featuring multiple graded stakes. Drexel Hill appears the logical favorite given her Kentucky Oaks credentials, but her 7-2 odds offer modest value considering the five-month layoff uncertainty. The race sets up as competitive Grade 2 where multiple fillies possess legitimate winning chances.​​

Win betting centers on the Drexel Hill versus value alternatives decision. Her Kentucky Oaks runner-up finish validates superior class, but the extended layoff creates legitimate concerns about current sharpness. Fully Subscribed at 4-1 represents intriguing value given Chad Brown’s hot form and her recent competitive allowance effort. Lemon Zest at 9-2 offers the Cox-Prat partnership at reasonable odds with tactical improvements potentially producing different results than Remington.​

Exacta wagering provides strong value opportunities given the competitive field. Boxing Drexel Hill with Fully Subscribed and Lemon Zest creates $6 comprehensive coverage of likely outcomes. A more aggressive approach uses Fully Subscribed and Lemon Zest on top with Drexel Hill, So There She Was, and Filly Freedom underneath, creating tickets prioritizing value horses over the favorite.​

Trifecta structures should emphasize the top three choices in first two positions while spreading underneath. Using Drexel Hill, Fully Subscribed, and Lemon Zest in first two slots with So There She Was, Filly Freedom, Cue the Duckboats, and Being Myself filling third position creates $30 ticket with strong value potential. The trifecta payoff could reach substantial levels if longshots fill minor positions.​

Superfecta wagering becomes viable with judicious elimination strategy. A key box using Drexel Hill, Fully Subscribed, and Lemon Zest on top with deeper coverage underneath maintains manageable costs while providing realistic winning chances. Eliminating Queen Azteca and Ourdaydreaminggirl based on weight disadvantages and questionable class reduces ticket expense.​

Rolling exotic opportunities prove valuable given this race’s position in the late Pick 5 sequence. Using Drexel Hill, Fully Subscribed, and Lemon Zest as primary selections while including Filly Freedom as a value saver creates affordable multi-race tickets. The mandatory payout Pick 5 adds pool value for sequential bettors constructing deeper tickets.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Fully Subscribed – Chad Brown’s improving three-year-old filly represents the standout value selection despite making her stakes debut in this competitive Grade 2 assignment. Her narrow neck defeat in recent allowance company featured visually impressive performance finishing clear of remaining rivals by 8 3/4 lengths, demonstrating genuine class separation from the field. The effort came in her second start following layoff and first attempt at 1 1/8 miles, suggesting she appreciated the route test and possesses room for improvement with added fitness. Brown’s exceptional 30% win rate over recent weeks reflects current barn sharpness, and his horses typically fire peak efforts when advanced into stakes company with weight allowances. His record developing three-year-old fillies through patient campaigns proves particularly strong, consistently producing horses who improve dramatically when stretched to route distances. The decision to enter both Fully Subscribed and Filly Freedom signals strong confidence in his fillies’ current abilities, and Brown’s placement decisions typically reflect superior talent evaluation. At 118 pounds receiving a four-pound weight allowance for non-stakes winners, she enjoys significant tactical relief compared to So There She Was at 120 and Queen Azteca at 122, advantages that prove meaningful in stamina tests over 1 1/8 miles. Dylan Davis brings capable riding and familiarity with Brown’s training methods, allowing proper tactical execution despite lacking the star power of Prat or Alvarado. The post 6 draw provides optimal tactical positioning, allowing Davis to assess early pace development while securing comfortable mid-pack position perfect for Brown’s patient tactics. While concern exists about stepping directly from allowance defeat into Grade 2 company facing proven stakes winners and Kentucky Oaks runner-up, Brown’s training typically overcomes class concerns through superior conditioning and talent identification. His willingness to enter her for stakes debut against this quality suggests morning training validates competitive ability at this level. At 4-1 odds, she offers superior value compared to Drexel Hill’s 7-2 proposition considering the favorite’s five-month layoff uncertainty and unknown current form. If Fully Subscribed possesses the talent Brown’s placement suggests, the weight advantage combined with his championship training creates formidable conditions for upset victory.​

Place: Lemon Zest – Brad Cox’s Godolphin homebred three-year-old filly brings championship connections and tactical improvements that could produce dramatically different results than her Remington Park Oaks defeat. The Cox-Prat partnership has dominated 2025 racing, with Cox’s stable earning more than $23 million while Prat recently set a NYRA single-card record with seven victories. Their combined excellence creates enormous tactical advantages, particularly with Prat’s superior timing potentially producing different execution than Luis Saez’s aggressive approach at Remington. Rather than engaging So There She Was through contested early fractions as she did under Saez, Prat may rate her off the pace, allowing her to conserve energy for sustained late kick. His patient riding style suits fillies requiring tactical flexibility, and his record-setting current form reflects brilliance that elevates any mount’s chances. The breeding by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of Bernardini mare Larkin provides classic distance influence perfectly suited for 1 1/8-mile tests, and the Godolphin homebred status reflects quality bloodstock competing in elite company. At 118 pounds with four-pound weight allowance, she receives tactical relief compared to So There She Was in the rematch, creating opportunities for reversal if Prat’s tactics prove superior. The post 3 draw provides ideal inside-middle positioning allowing Prat to assess early pace development while maintaining tactical flexibility on or near the rail. Cox’s training combined with Prat’s current brilliance creates conditions for dramatic improvement from the Remington effort, where she set demanding early fractions before weakening noticeably when challenged. While concern exists about her established pattern of failing to sustain speed through aggressive tempo, Prat’s conservative tactics may alleviate that weakness by allowing her to rate kindly while maintaining competitive position. At 9-2 odds, she offers reasonable value for place wagering, providing safety for moderate-risk strategies while maintaining realistic chances for victory if tactical improvements produce expected results. The Cox-Prat partnership’s championship credentials demand serious respect, and their success with fillies appreciating longer distances suggests Lemon Zest returns to competitive form capable of defeating all but the absolute best in this field.​

Show: Drexel Hill – The Kentucky Oaks runner-up brings proven Grade 1 class credentials that justify favoritism despite five-month layoff uncertainty. Her courageous Oaks performance rallying from last of 13 and nine lengths off pace to finish only 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner demonstrated exceptional stamina and determination validating competitive ability well beyond this Grade 2 level. That effort earned strong Beyer Speed Figures indicating she possesses class advantages over this entire field if returning to peak form following extended rest. Whit Beckman’s patient approach reflects sound judgment, allowing proper recovery before returning to competitive action, and connections’ decision to return earlier than originally planned suggests morning training indicates readiness. The breeding by Good Magic out of Bernardini mare Boone’s Pride provides both class and stamina for classic distances, creating ideal pedigree profile for 1 1/8-mile route tests. At 120 pounds with two-pound weight allowance, she carries more weight than most rivals but significantly less than Queen Azteca’s 122 pounds, and her proven class suggests ability to overcome slight weight disadvantage if returning to Oaks form. Ben Curtis handles the mount continuing their Oaks partnership, and the post 9 draw actually benefits her deep closing style by ensuring clear running lanes without traffic complications. The five-month layoff creates legitimate concerns about current sharpness, as three-year-old fillies typically improve dramatically through summer and fall campaigns with regular racing while layoffs can blunt development and competitive edge. However, her exceptional Oaks performance suggests genuine talent capable of overcoming layoff disadvantages through superior class. At 7-2 odds, she offers modest value for win betting considering layoff uncertainty, but the show position provides safety for conservative wagering strategies while maintaining realistic chances for victory if returning with Oaks brilliance. Her proven ability in Grade 1 company establishes her as the horse to beat if fit and ready, making her the logical show selection who brings both class credentials and legitimate upset potential if everything comes together properly.​

Alternative Exotic Plays:

Exacta Box: Fully Subscribed-Lemon Zest-Drexel Hill ($12 for full box)

Exacta: Fully Subscribed with Lemon Zest, Drexel Hill, So There She Was ($6 ticket)

Exacta: Fully Subscribed, Lemon Zest with Drexel Hill, So There She Was, Filly Freedom, Cue the Duckboats ($12 ticket)

Trifecta: Fully Subscribed, Lemon Zest, Drexel Hill with Fully Subscribed, Lemon Zest, Drexel Hill with So There She Was, Filly Freedom, Cue the Duckboats, Being Myself ($18 ticket)

Superfecta Key: Fully Subscribed, Lemon Zest, Drexel Hill with Fully Subscribed, Lemon Zest, Drexel Hill, So There She Was, Filly Freedom with ALL with ALL ($42 ticket)

Late Pick 5 Coverage: Spread Fully Subscribed, Lemon Zest, Drexel Hill with Filly Freedom saver

The race presents a competitive Grade 2 stakes featuring Kentucky Oaks runner-up against improving fillies from championship barns. Recent track trends favoring fair racing surfaces create optimal conditions for horses with tactical positioning and sustained finishing ability. Fully Subscribed’s value proposition at 4-1 appears superior to Drexel Hill’s 7-2 favoritism considering layoff uncertainty, while Lemon Zest brings Cox-Prat partnership capable of tactical improvements producing Remington reversal.​​

Race 10 – Long Island Stakes (Grade 3)

STAKES. 1 3/8 Miles Turf. Purse $250,000. Long Island Stakes (Grade 3). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.​

Post Time: 4:09 PM

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

This Grade 3 Long Island Stakes presents a compelling turf marathon for fillies and mares over the demanding 1 3/8-mile distance on the inner turf course. The race serves as the final event on a stakes-packed card and completes the late Pick 5 sequence featuring multiple graded events. Recent Aqueduct inner turf conditions show fair racing surfaces at 27-foot rail placement without extreme biases, creating optimal conditions for diverse tactical styles.​​

The anticipated pace likely unfolds moderately through the early going as experienced turf marathoners conserve energy for the demanding three-turn test. Beach Bomb brings proven frontrunning credentials from her Grade 3 victories at Gulfstream Park where she wired fields in both The Very One Stakes and Orchid Stakes at 1 3/8 and 1 1/2 miles respectively. Her presence creates tactical complications for other speed-oriented fillies and mares who must decide whether to engage or concede favorable position through the opening stages.​

Grayosh demonstrated tactical versatility throughout her 2025 campaign, showing ability to rate off the pace or press leaders depending on race scenarios. Chad Brown’s Grade 2 winner brings championship training and Flavien Prat partnership that dominated recent NYRA racing through superior positioning and timing. The combination creates enormous tactical advantages in competitive graded stakes where execution proves crucial.​​

Graham Motion’s dual entry creates strategic depth through multiple tactical options. Beach Bomb’s proven frontrunning style contrasts with No Show Sammy Jo’s closing tendencies, allowing Motion to cover various pace scenarios. Bill Mott’s duo of Immensitude and Alluring Angel brings similar strategic flexibility, with Immensitude showing wire-to-wire capability in her recent optional claiming victory while Alluring Angel prefers closing rallies.​

The 1 3/8-mile distance represents the ultimate stamina test on the inner turf course, requiring sustained speed through three turns and down the lengthy Aqueduct homestretch. Horses with proven marathon credentials and tactical positioning typically prevail, as the demanding configuration exposes stamina limitations while rewarding genuine route specialists.​

Grayosh

Chad Brown sends out the defending champion and Grade 2 winner as the deserving morning line favorite at 2-1. The four-year-old Kentucky-bred filly boasts the field’s highest class credentials as a Grade 2 winner, establishing her among the elite turf marathon specialists competing in North America. Flavien Prat handles the riding assignment from post 2, continuing their productive partnership that has flourished throughout 2025.​​

Brown’s stable form remains exceptional with 18 wins from 60 starters over recent weeks, reflecting 30% win rate that underscores current barn sharpness. His record with turf marathoners proves particularly strong, having dominated this division through patient development and superior conditioning methods. The Hall of Fame trainer captured his record-extending 36th NYRA training title, demonstrating sustained excellence across all divisions.​

Prat’s presence creates enormous tactical advantages given his recent record-setting form. The French jockey set a NYRA single-card record with seven victories from ten mounts on November 3, never finishing outside the exacta while demonstrating superior timing and positioning skills. The Jockeys’ Guild named him Jockey of the Week following dual Breeders Cup victories and the historic performance. His chemistry with Brown runners has produced multiple graded stakes victories throughout 2025, creating confidence in any collaborative assignment.​

At 125 pounds carrying top weight based on her Grade 2 credentials, she concedes weight to several rivals but her proven class suggests ability to overcome the slight disadvantage. The weight assignment reflects competitive achievements and establishes her as the mare to beat if returning to peak form. Brown’s training typically produces horses ready for maximum efforts when carrying top weight in graded company.​

The post 2 draw provides ideal tactical positioning for Prat’s execution. He can assess early pace development while securing comfortable stalking position on or near the rail, perfect for his patient tactics. If Beach Bomb establishes early lead from post 3, Prat can sit comfortably in tracking position while conserving energy for his characteristic late kick. The inside-middle draw allows multiple tactical options depending on how early fractions develop.​

Her breeding and specific recent performances weren’t extensively detailed in available sources, creating some handicapping challenges without concrete speed figures or workout patterns. However, her Grade 2 credentials and Brown-Prat partnership provide sufficient validation of competitive ability at this Grade 3 level. When Brown runners carry top weight in graded stakes with Prat aboard, they typically produce peak performances through superior conditioning and tactical execution.​​

Beach Bomb

Graham Motion sends out this South African-bred Group 1 winner seeking her first North American graded stakes victory after multiple competitive efforts. The five-year-old Lancaster Bomber mare arrives with formidable international credentials and proven marathon ability over distances ranging from 1 3/8 to 1 1/2 miles. Javier Castellano handles the riding assignment from post 3, bringing Hall of Fame credentials to this championship barn assignment.​

Her 2025 campaign began brilliantly with consecutive Grade 3 victories at Gulfstream Park. She wired the field in The Very One Stakes on March 1 over 1 3/8 miles before repeating that frontrunning success in the Orchid Stakes on March 29 at 1 1/2 miles by a head. Both performances validated exceptional stamina and tactical speed sufficient to establish comfortable early positions without excessive energy expenditure.​

Following those victories, Motion shipped her to the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf where she finished eighth, missing by only 3 1/2 lengths while competing against the world’s elite grass performers. The performance demonstrated genuine Grade 1 ability without producing victory, suggesting she belongs in competitive stakes company but lacks the brilliant turn-of-foot possessed by championship-caliber mares. Motion noted the Breeders Cup experience followed by proper rest has allowed her to flourish.​

Most recently she finished second in the Grade 3 Waya Stakes over this Aqueduct inner turf course at 1 3/8 miles on October 5, losing to Village Voice while holding off Alluring Angel for runner-up honors. The performance validated fitness and current form while demonstrating comfort with the Aqueduct configuration. Her familiarity with this exact distance and course creates tactical advantages over rivals experiencing these conditions for the first time.​

At 125 pounds carrying top weight alongside Grayosh, she faces no weight disadvantages against the favorite while conceding pounds to several longshots. The weight assignment reflects her competitive stakes credentials and establishes her co-favoritism with the Brown runner. Her proven ability at this exact distance suggests the weight won’t prevent producing peak effort if arriving fit and ready.​

The post 3 draw provides optimal positioning for her frontrunning tactics. Castellano can establish comfortable early lead without engaging in speed duels, allowing her to set sustainable fractions through the demanding three-turn configuration. The inside position conserves ground while maintaining tactical flexibility if other horses challenge for the lead.​

Motion’s assessment following the Breeders Cup suggests she’s thriving in current training, and his patient approach allowing proper recovery time reflects sound judgment. His record developing international turf imports proves exceptional, consistently producing horses who adapt successfully to American racing conditions. Beach Bomb’s Group 1 credentials combined with recent Aqueduct experience make her a formidable favorite challenging Grayosh for victory.​

Immensitude

Bill Mott sends out this French-bred Group 3 winner seeking her second consecutive North American victory following recent optional claiming success. The five-year-old Lawman mare arrived in Mott’s barn from Stephane Wattel’s French stable in 2024, bringing international credentials including Group 3 Prix Bertrand de Tarragon victory in September 2023. Junior Alvarado handles the riding assignment from post 6, continuing their partnership that flourished in Mott’s championship 2025 campaign.​

Her North American transition proved challenging initially, producing one second and three thirds in six attempts through early 2025 before breaking through with wire-to-wire victory in a 1 1/16-mile optional claimer on October 2 at Aqueduct. That performance validated fitness and adaptation to American racing conditions, demonstrating tactical speed sufficient to establish comfortable lead positions. The victory ended a two-year drought dating to her French Group 3 triumph.​

Prior to that breakthrough, she finished close second to La Mehana in the local Grade 3 Waya before placing third in last year’s Long Island Stakes behind eventual Grade 1 winner Be Your Best. Her familiarity with this exact Aqueduct inner turf course at 1 3/8 miles creates advantages through proven experience navigating the demanding configuration. The consistent efforts in competitive graded stakes validate ability to compete at this level despite lacking victories.​

Mott’s patient development allowed proper adjustment period following her transatlantic move, and his recent seven wins from 44 starters indicates selective but effective placement. The Hall of Fame trainer’s expertise with turf marathoners and international imports suggests Immensitude has reached optimal form for this Grade 3 assignment. His Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award reflects championship season that established him among the sport’s elite conditioners.​

Alvarado’s chemistry with Mott runners proves exceptional through their sustained success throughout 2025. The partnership’s tactical brilliance and patient execution translate perfectly to marathon assignments where positioning and timing determine results. His familiarity with Aqueduct provides advantages in navigating the inner turf course while identifying optimal moments for sustained drives.​

At 121 pounds receiving four-pound relief from top-weighted Grayosh and Beach Bomb, she enjoys tactical advantages meaningful in stamina tests over 1 3/8 miles. The weight relief combined with proven course experience and Mott’s conditioning creates conditions for competitive effort against higher-weighted favorites. Her 20-4-4-5 lifetime record reflects consistency without brilliance, making her a logical underneath play in exotic wagers.​

The post 6 draw provides neutral mid-pack positioning allowing Alvarado to assess early pace development while securing favorable stalking position. If she can duplicate her recent wire-to-wire optional claiming tactics while facing elevated competition, the Mott conditioning combined with Alvarado’s execution could produce upset at value odds.​

Alluring Angel

Bill Mott’s second entry brings intriguing depth at morning line odds of 15-1 despite proven competitive form in graded stakes company. The five-year-old Fastnet Rock bay most recently finished one-length third in the Grade 3 Waya Stakes over this exact course and distance on October 5, vying for position in the lane with eventual runner-up Beach Bomb. Kendrick Carmouche handles the riding assignment from post 7, continuing Mott’s pattern of pairing capable jockeys with developing mares.​

Her Waya performance validated competitive ability at Grade 3 level while demonstrating comfort with the Aqueduct inner turf marathon configuration. She finished behind Village Voice and Beach Bomb but ahead of the remaining field, establishing her among legitimate contenders capable of competing for minor awards. The performance built on earlier efforts that included consistent placings throughout her career.​

As Mott’s barnmate to Immensitude, she’s finished behind that stablemate twice during 2025 at Saratoga, creating established form lines suggesting clear pecking order within the barn. However, her three-quarters of a length defeat behind Beach Bomb in the Waya puts her squarely in contention for exotic positions if the race sets up favorably for her closing style. Mott’s willingness to enter both fillies signals confidence in competitive abilities despite questions about which represents stronger winning chance.​

At 121 pounds matching Immensitude’s weight assignment, she receives four-pound relief from the co-favorites. The weight advantage proves meaningful in stamina tests, particularly for mares demonstrating consistent form without dominant performances. Mott’s conditioning typically produces competitive efforts from both entries when running multiple horses, creating value opportunities for deep exotic wagers.​

The post 7 draw forces navigation from outside-middle position but shouldn’t prevent Carmouche from securing favorable stalking spot. The three-turn configuration provides ample opportunity for positioning adjustments without immediate tactical decisions. If Alluring Angel can improve slightly from her Waya effort while benefiting from favorable pace setup, she represents value for place and show wagering at 15-1 odds.​

Brocknardini

George Weaver sends out this locally-owned New York-bred four-year-old filly with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard at 8-1 morning line odds. The Palace Malice filly made an impressive career debut winning by 4 3/4 lengths over 1 1/16 miles on Saratoga’s inner turf in August 2024, displaying strong closing kick that suggested quality talent. Velazquez’s presence signals Weaver’s confidence despite limited recent information about her current form.​

Owned by local resident Thomas Brockley and trained by Weaver at Saratoga, she represents hometown connections with intimate knowledge of NYRA racing conditions. Her breeding by Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice out of Bernardini mare Broad Stripes provides both class and stamina for marathon distances, creating ideal pedigree profile for 1 3/8-mile tests. The Preakness and Travers influence through Bernardini adds additional stamina depth.​

Weaver recently captured his first Breeders Cup victory when Cy Fair won the Juvenile Turf Sprint, validating his expertise developing specialized turf runners. His hot form and proven success with New York-breds creates confidence despite limited public information about Brocknardini’s recent performances. When Weaver pairs developing fillies with elite jockeys like Velazquez in graded stakes, they typically fire competitive efforts.​

At 121 pounds receiving four-pound relief from co-favorites, she enjoys tactical advantages if possessing the talent her debut performance suggested. The weight relief combined with Velazquez’s championship riding creates conditions for potential upset if she’s developed significantly since that impressive maiden victory. Her closing style suits the anticipated moderate pace, allowing Velazquez to position patiently before unleashing late kick.​

The post 4 draw provides favorable inside-middle positioning perfect for Velazquez’s patient tactics. He can assess pace development while securing comfortable mid-pack position, ideal for rating closers learning to navigate graded stakes competition. At 8-1 odds, she represents intriguing value if morning training validates readiness for this Grade 3 challenge.​

Remaining Contenders

No Show Sammy Jo represents Graham Motion’s second entry with Jorge Ruiz handling the mount from post 1. The five-year-old British-bred mare brings Group racing experience and recent competitive form suggesting underneath potential. Motion’s dual entry creates strategic flexibility while providing value for deep exotic wagers. At projected longshot odds, she offers speculative play without sufficient form validation to warrant strong confidence.​

Fun With Flags and Alimara represent Chad Brown’s additional entries beyond favorite Grayosh. Fun With Flags hasn’t won in five 2025 starts while now attempting the marathon distance for the first time, creating questions about stamina at 1 3/8 miles. Alimara brings similar Brown training without established form suggesting competitive ability against this Grade 3 field. Both represent deep exotic coverage without win betting appeal.​

Way to Be Marie makes her first attempt at the demanding three-turn configuration for trainer Rob Atras with Manuel Franco aboard from post 9. Purloin and Bernietakescharge round out the field as longshots offering minimal appeal without competitive form validation. The remaining horses represent elimination candidates for most wagering structures given questionable class credentials against proven Grade 2 and Grade 3 performers.​

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Grayosh holds clear class advantages as the field’s only Grade 2 winner, establishing her among elite turf marathon specialists. Her speed figures likely exceed anything this field has produced through consistent graded stakes competition. Beach Bomb’s international Group 1 credentials combined with recent Grade 3 victories create similar class depth, though her North American figures remain competitive rather than dominant.​

Immensitude’s Group 3 victory in France combined with competitive North American placings suggests figures in the 95-100 range, competitive for Grade 3 company without matching the co-favorites’ peak performances. Alluring Angel’s consistent placings in graded stakes likely produce similar numbers, making her a logical underneath play without win betting confidence.​

Brocknardini’s limited racing experience creates uncertainty about true ability, though her impressive maiden victory suggests potential for improvement with added experience. The remaining field lacks published figures or competitive form suggesting ability to challenge the established contenders.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Recent Aqueduct inner turf trends show fair racing surfaces with 27-foot rail placement creating balanced conditions without extreme post position biases. The 1 3/8-mile configuration starts from deep in the backstretch, allowing ample time for tactical positioning through three turns without immediate decisions. Inside posts provide ground-saving advantages while outside draws ensure clear running lanes for closers.​

Post 1 for No Show Sammy Jo provides rail advantages for ground saving but risks traffic complications through the turns. Post 2 for Grayosh creates ideal tactical positioning for Prat’s execution on or near the rail. Post 3 for Beach Bomb suits her frontrunning style by allowing establishment of comfortable early lead.​

Posts 4-7 offer neutral mid-pack positioning with tactical flexibility for Brocknardini, Lady Firefoot, Immensitude, and Alluring Angel. The middle draws allow multiple options depending on pace development. Outside posts force wider journeys but ensure clear running lanes for late closers requiring unobstructed paths.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This Grade 3 Long Island Stakes concludes the late Pick 5 sequence featuring multiple graded events, creating mandatory payout opportunities for sequential bettors. Grayosh appears the logical favorite given her Grade 2 credentials and Brown-Prat partnership, but her 2-1 odds offer modest value. Beach Bomb at similar odds represents compelling alternative given proven course experience and frontrunning style suited for this marathon test.​​

Win betting centers on the Grayosh versus Beach Bomb decision. Grayosh brings superior class through Grade 2 victory and championship connections, justifying favoritism despite modest odds. Beach Bomb offers tactical advantages through proven frontrunning success at this exact distance and course, creating compelling reasons to prefer her execution certainty over Grayosh’s class edge.​

Exacta wagering provides strong value opportunities. Boxing Grayosh and Beach Bomb creates $4 comprehensive coverage of likely outcome. A more aggressive approach uses Immensitude and Brocknardini on top with the co-favorites underneath, creating tickets prioritizing value horses at attractive odds. Reverse exactas provide insurance against upsets while maintaining realistic coverage.​

Trifecta structures should emphasize co-favorites in first two positions while spreading underneath. Using Grayosh and Beach Bomb in first two slots with Immensitude, Alluring Angel, Brocknardini, and No Show Sammy Jo filling third position creates $24 ticket with strong value potential. The trifecta payoff could reach substantial levels if Mott’s entries or Weaver’s filly complete the payoff.​

Superfecta wagering becomes viable with proper elimination strategy. A key box using Grayosh and Beach Bomb on top with deeper coverage underneath maintains manageable costs while providing realistic winning chances. Eliminating questionable longshots reduces ticket expense while maintaining coverage of likely outcomes.​

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: Beach Bomb – Graham Motion’s South African-bred Group 1 winner represents the standout selection despite co-favoritism with Grayosh at similar 2-1 odds. Her proven success at this exact Aqueduct inner turf course and 1 3/8-mile distance creates tactical advantages that offset Grayosh’s superior class credentials. The consecutive Grade 3 victories at Gulfstream Park over 1 3/8 and 1 1/2 miles demonstrated exceptional stamina and frontrunning ability that translates perfectly to this marathon configuration. Her most recent runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Waya Stakes over this course on October 5 validated current fitness while providing invaluable experience navigating the demanding three-turn test. Motion’s patient conditioning following the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf allowed proper recovery, and his assessment suggests she’s flourishing in current training. The post 3 draw provides optimal positioning for Castellano’s frontrunning tactics, allowing establishment of comfortable early lead without engaging in speed duels. She can set sustainable fractions through the backstretch and around three turns while conserving energy for the lengthy Aqueduct homestretch drive. At 125 pounds carrying top weight alongside Grayosh, she faces no disadvantages against the favorite while her proven ability at this exact distance and course suggests the weight won’t prevent peak performance. While Grayosh brings superior Grade 2 class credentials and the formidable Brown-Prat partnership, Beach Bomb’s execution certainty at this specific distance and course creates compelling value proposition. Her Group 1 international credentials combined with North American Grade 3 victories establish genuine quality, and her familiarity with Aqueduct’s inner turf provides tactical edges over rivals experiencing this configuration for the first time. Motion’s record developing international turf imports proves exceptional, and his confidence shipping her for this Grade 3 assignment reflects belief in competitive superiority. If she can establish comfortable early fractions without pressure, her proven marathon stamina should carry her through the demanding three-turn test for victory over the more classically credentialed but less experienced Grayosh.​

Place: Grayosh – Chad Brown’s Grade 2 winner brings championship credentials that justify co-favoritism despite questions about course experience at this marathon distance. Her superior class as the field’s only Grade 2 winner establishes her among elite turf specialists, and the Brown-Prat partnership’s sustained excellence throughout 2025 creates enormous tactical advantages. Brown’s exceptional 30% win rate over recent weeks reflects current barn sharpness, and his horses typically fire peak efforts when entered in graded stakes with Prat aboard. The French jockey’s record-setting form including seven victories from ten mounts on a single card demonstrates current brilliance that elevates any mount’s chances. Their chemistry has produced multiple graded stakes victories, creating confidence in collaborative execution despite limited specific information about her recent performances. At 125 pounds carrying top weight, she faces no disadvantages against Beach Bomb while her proven class suggests ability to overcome any tactical challenges through superior quality. The post 2 draw provides ideal positioning for Prat’s patient tactics, allowing him to assess Beach Bomb’s early lead while securing comfortable stalking position on or near the rail. His superior timing and positioning skills typically overcome post or tactical disadvantages through championship-caliber execution. While concern exists about limited public information regarding her recent form and speed figures, Brown’s decision to enter her with Prat signals strong confidence in competitive ability at this Grade 3 level. When Brown carries top weight in graded stakes with his record-setting jockey aboard, they typically produce peak performances that validate class credentials. At 2-1 odds she offers modest value for win betting, but the place position provides safety while maintaining realistic chances for victory if Beach Bomb encounters any trouble or fails to establish comfortable early lead. Her Grade 2 credentials make her the logical safety valve who brings both class depth and legitimate upset potential if everything aligns properly.​​

Show: Immensitude – Bill Mott’s French-bred Group 3 winner represents intriguing value for show wagering following her recent optional claiming breakthrough. Her wire-to-wire victory on October 2 at Aqueduct ended a two-year drought while validating adaptation to American racing conditions and current fitness. The performance demonstrated tactical speed sufficient to establish comfortable lead positions, and her familiarity with this exact Aqueduct inner turf course at 1 3/8 miles creates advantages through proven experience. Her consistent placings in competitive graded stakes including close second in the local Waya and third in last year’s Long Island behind eventual Grade 1 winner Be Your Best validate ability to compete at this level. Mott’s patient development allowing proper adjustment period following her transatlantic move reflects sound training judgment, and his Warner L. Jones Jr. Horseman of the Year award establishes him among championship-caliber conditioners. Junior Alvarado’s chemistry with Mott runners through their sustained 2025 success translates perfectly to marathon assignments where tactical execution determines results. At 121 pounds receiving four-pound relief from co-favorites Grayosh and Beach Bomb, she enjoys tactical advantages meaningful in stamina tests over the demanding distance. The weight relief combined with proven course experience and Mott’s conditioning creates conditions for competitive effort capable of completing the exacta or trifecta. Her 20-4-4-5 lifetime record reflects consistency without brilliance, making her the logical show selection who offers both value at projected odds and realistic chances for better finishes if pace scenarios develop favorably. The post 6 draw provides neutral positioning allowing Alvarado to assess early pace development while positioning comfortably for sustained drives. While concern exists about whether she possesses the class necessary to defeat Grade 2 winner Grayosh and Group 1 winner Beach Bomb, her recent form and Mott’s training suggest competitive ability sufficient for minor awards. The show position provides safety for conservative wagering while maintaining upset potential if the co-favorites encounter trouble or fail to produce peak efforts.​

Alternative Exotic Plays:

Exacta Box: Grayosh-Beach Bomb ($4 minimum bet)

Exacta: Beach Bomb with Grayosh, Immensitude, Brocknardini ($6 ticket)

Exacta: Grayosh, Beach Bomb with Grayosh, Beach Bomb, Immensitude, Alluring Angel ($8 ticket)

Trifecta: Grayosh, Beach Bomb with Grayosh, Beach Bomb with Immensitude, Alluring Angel, Brocknardini, No Show Sammy Jo ($12 ticket)

Trifecta: Grayosh, Beach Bomb with Grayosh, Beach Bomb, Immensitude with ALL ($14 ticket for deeper coverage)

Superfecta Key: Grayosh, Beach Bomb with Grayosh, Beach Bomb, Immensitude, Brocknardini with ALL with ALL ($32 ticket)

Late Pick 5 Closer: Spread Grayosh and Beach Bomb with Immensitude saver

The race presents a competitive Grade 3 turf marathon featuring proven international performers against championship domestic connections. Recent track trends favoring fair surfaces create optimal conditions for horses with tactical positioning and sustained stamina. Beach Bomb’s execution certainty at this exact distance and course appears superior to Grayosh’s class credentials given the specific tactical advantages, while Immensitude brings Mott’s training and value odds for show wagering.​​

Jockey Notes and Insights

Flavien Prat rides the absolute crest of momentum after setting a NYRA single-card record with seven victories from ten mounts last Sunday at Belmont at the Big A. Prat never finished outside the exacta that day, securing six consecutive wins and posting a remarkable 10-7-3-0 record. He followed his dual Breeders Cup victories aboard Nysos in the Dirt Mile and Splendora in the Filly and Mare Sprint with the record-setting performance. The Jockeys’ Guild named Prat Jockey of the Week for his exceptional achievements. Today he rides prominently for Chad Brown and Brad Cox, creating multiple opportunities for success. His partnership with Brown has been particularly dominant on turf.​

John Velazquez continues his Hall of Fame career with mounts for Todd Pletcher throughout the card. The Pletcher-Velazquez combination excels in stakes races, particularly the Dwyer Stakes where connections seek a fourth victory. Velazquez possesses exceptional tactical awareness and excels at rating horses properly in route races.​

Manuel Franco rides aggressively and fits well with Chad Brown’s training style. Franco has shown strong form at the current Aqueduct meet and handles both dirt and turf equally well. His mount on Collect the Data in the opener deserves serious consideration.

Ricardo Santana Jr. brings versatility and tactical speed to multiple races. His recent partnership with Chad Brown runners has produced strong results and his presence on any mount indicates trainer confidence.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Chad Brown dominates the stakes schedule with multiple entries in both the Mother Goose Stakes and Long Island Stakes. Brown recently secured his record-extending seventh victory in the Listed Chelsey Flower Stakes, demonstrating his continued excellence. His 36th NYRA training title confirms his status as the premier conditioner at the circuit. Brown runners paired with Flavien Prat create nearly unstoppable combinations, particularly in turf stakes. His tactical approach and attention to detail produce consistent results across all distances and surfaces.​

Todd Pletcher sends out strong runners in both the Dwyer Stakes and Pumpkin Pie Stakes while also saddling favorites in maiden races. Pletcher seeks his fourth Dwyer Stakes victory and typically has his horses razor-sharp for graded events. His two-year-old maidens deserve automatic respect, especially when paired with John Velazquez. Pletcher’s patient approach with developing runners produces long-term success.​

Brad Cox ships multiple runners from Kentucky including Vacation Dance and Chileno. Cox captured dual Breeders Cup victories and his string remains in peak form. When Cox ships to New York, the horses typically fire first time out. His partnership with Flavien Prat creates strong betting opportunities.

Bill Mott enters runners throughout the card with a patient approach that emphasizes proper placement. Mott three-year-olds stretching out in distance often show dramatic improvement. His success with turf routes and marathon distances makes his entries in the Hill Prince and Long Island Stakes particularly intriguing.

Linda Rice excels with New York-bred runners and knows the Aqueduct oval better than most conditioners. Her entries in state-bred restricted races deserve consideration, particularly when paired with Jose Lezcano or Kendrick Carmouche.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The late Pick 5 beginning in Race 6 presents the strongest multi-race wagering opportunity. The sequence includes three graded stakes and offers multiple single opportunities with Tracking Error in Race 6 and potentially Mayor of Midnight in Race 7. Spreading in the Mother Goose Stakes and Long Island Stakes creates reasonable ticket costs while maintaining strong win probability.​​

The Pick 6 carryover of $22,632 creates additional value for bettors willing to construct deeper tickets. Using Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher runners as singles in appropriate spots reduces ticket costs while maintaining strong coverage.​

Exacta and trifecta wagering in the Dwyer Stakes offers value with Tip Top Thomas on top over Disco Time and Stars and Stripes. The morning line prices suggest Disco Time will be underlaid as favorite while Tip Top Thomas and Stars and Stripes offer better value propositions.

The maiden races present opportunities for strong prices, particularly Race 5 where Super Dreamy at projected 12-1 odds represents legitimate value. Maiden races on turf often produce higher payoffs as first-time starters show varied abilities.

Vertical exotic wagers using Flavien Prat runners paired with Chad Brown and Brad Cox trainees create strong probability of success. Prat’s current form suggests multiple victories today, making rolling doubles and pick three sequences attractive.

Single race betting shows value with Weigh the Risks in the Pumpkin Pie Stakes where the morning line undervalues Chad Brown’s recent dominance. Similarly, Mayor of Midnight in the Hill Prince Stakes represents solid value if morning line odds hold.