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Aqueduct offers an eight-race card today with a scheduled first post of 1:10 PM Eastern. The card features a balanced mix of claiming, starter allowance, and maiden claiming events on the dirt, ranging from 6-furlong sprints to one-mile routes. The featured race is the seventh, an $80,000 claiming event at one mile for four-year-olds and upward with a $100,000 claiming tag — the highest-class field assembled on the card. Purses across the afternoon range from $32,000 to $80,000.
CRITICAL WEATHER ALERT: The National Weather Service has issued a Blizzard Warning for the New York City metropolitan area beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern on Sunday, February 22 through 6:00 PM Monday, February 23. The warning calls for total snow accumulations of 15-20 inches, with winds gusting as high as 55 mph and whiteout conditions expected. NYRA has announced the cancellation of Sunday’s live racing at Aqueduct Racetrack due to the approaching winter storm. Live racing is scheduled to resume on Monday with a first post of 1:10 PM Eastern on an eight-race Presidents’ Day card. However, entries remained posted as of Saturday evening, so horseplayers should monitor NYRA’s official channels closely. There is a possibility these entries will carry over to a rescheduled card, in which case the analysis below remains applicable.
The scratch watch is active heading into the card. Proud Foot (PP4, R1) is listed as a possible scratch due to Vet-Illness. House United (PP2, R2) is also on the vet scratch list for illness. Amity Island (PP6, R3) could be scratched by the Stewards. Thrill of It (PP1, R4) is flagged for Vet-Illness. In Race 5, Lady Meringue (PP7) is listed Vet-Injured and Tree House (PP3) is listed Vet-Illness. Uncle Barrie (PP7, R8) could be scratched by the Stewards. Players must check final scratches before committing to any wagers, as several of these horses figure prominently in the competitive structure of their respective races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Queens, New York on February 22 calls for highs near 34-38 degrees with deteriorating conditions throughout the afternoon. Precipitation is expected to begin around midday and transition from a rain/snow mix to heavy snow by late afternoon. Winds will increase dramatically through the afternoon, gusting 45-55 mph by evening. If any races are run before the storm fully materializes, conditions would be extremely challenging.
The dirt surface at Aqueduct was listed as Muddy on the most recent racing days. On Friday, February 20, the track was designated as Sloppy for all races. Given overnight temperatures hovering near freezing and the moisture already in the ground, there is a strong probability the track would be sealed and listed as Muddy or Sloppy if racing were to proceed. The Talking Horses crew from Saturday’s show confirmed the track was muddy and sealed as of their broadcast, and expected it to remain that way.
Horseplayers should weight wet-track form heavily when evaluating contenders. Horses with proven ability on off-track surfaces hold a meaningful edge in these conditions, while horses with limited or poor off-track records should be treated with skepticism regardless of their morning line odds.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The Aqueduct winter meet has exhibited a pronounced and persistent inside/rail bias throughout the 2025-2026 season. Track analysts have documented this trend extensively from November through mid-February.
At 6 furlongs on dirt, 51% of winners have gone wire-to-wire during the current meet. Early speed has been the dominant running style, and inside post positions (posts 1-4) have been strongly favored. At 7 furlongs on dirt, 35% of winners went wire-to-wire, with early speed again the best style, though outside posts showed up slightly more frequently at that distance.
On February 15, the rail continued to be a significant advantage, and being forwardly placed was also beneficial, with very little late movement from deep in the pack. February 13 produced an extreme inside bias where saving ground was a prerequisite for success. Days throughout February 12, 11, 6, and 5 all showed rail and speed advantages of varying intensity.
When the track is sloppy or wet, jockeys tend to stay off the rail since kickback becomes an issue. However, if the track is sealed and relatively uniform, the inside can still be the preferred path. Given the recent bias trend, inside posts and forwardly-placed runners carry an edge, particularly if the track remains sealed. If additional moisture softens the surface further, the bias could shift toward the middle of the track.
For today’s card, speed horses drawn inside have a structural advantage in every sprint race, while in the routes, tactical speed from middle-to-inside posts appears to be the optimal running style.
Race 1 — Claiming $20,000/$25,000 NYB, Fillies and Mares 4YO+, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $46,000
Post Time: 1:10 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
This is a small but competitive field of five. Proud Foot (PP4, if she runs) profiles as the horse most likely to show speed, having employed a front-running style in her career with the “Fast Leads” designation. Despo’s Dream (PP5) is described as a deep closer who runs her best races when coming from well off the pace. A Maize Zing Dotie (PP2) typically races in mid-pack. The pace scenario is moderate to honest if Proud Foot and Unicorn Cake (PP1) engage early, which would set up the race for closers.
Key Contenders
Despo’s Dream (PP5, ML 1/1) is the morning line favorite for trainer Linda Rice and jockey Jose Lezcano. The Rice-Lezcano combination has been one of the most productive on the Aqueduct circuit this meet, and Rice enters this card with a 24% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate. Despo’s Dream has a career record of 24 starts with 5 wins, 9 seconds, and 11 top-three finishes. Her 21% win rate and 46% show rate demonstrate consistency. She profiles as the “Fastest Deep” closer in the field, meaning she needs pace to close into. If Proud Foot scratches due to illness, the pace could collapse, which would be detrimental to her closing style. Algorithm-based projections rank her as the clear top selection with an expected value of 1 on the projected finish scale.
Proud Foot (PP4, ML 8/5) is the likely scratch candidate, listed on the scratch watch for Vet-Illness. If she runs, she brings by far the best earnings in the field at $672,780 from 32 career starts (6-16-21). She is the speed of the field with Flavien Prat aboard, and the inside/speed bias at Aqueduct would suit her front-running style. However, she has not won since her last victory at 6 furlongs and her recent form shows she has been unable to hold leads at longer distances.
Secondary Choices
A Maize Zing Dotie (PP2, ML 9/2) is the most accomplished winner in the field by percentage, having won 8 of 26 career starts (31% win rate). She is trained by Chris J. Englehart and ridden by Manuel Franco, who has a 21% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate at the meet. She races in mid-pack and has a “Mid Pack Leader” style. Her recent form at Finger Lakes and Big A Racetrack shows solid efforts without breaking through, but the class level here should suit her. She represents fair value at 9/2 on the morning line.
Irish Jackson (PP3, ML 6/1) is a fast closer trained by Robert N. Falcone Jr., who enters with an impressive 38% win rate and 62% in-the-money rate from a small sample size. She has a career record of 14: 3-6-10, with a remarkable 71% show rate. She will need pace to close into and may benefit if Proud Foot scratches and the pace is set by A Maize Zing Dotie. Her closing style could be compromised by the inside bias, but she is capable of a strong placing effort at a fair price.
Longshots
Unicorn Cake (PP1, ML 12/1) draws the rail, which has been advantageous in the bias pattern. She is a stalker who could benefit from a ground-saving trip if the inside is favorable. Her career record of 19: 3-7-11 shows she hits the board frequently (58% show rate), but she has been absent from Aqueduct recently, racing at Finger Lakes. She could outrun her odds for a minor share at a boxcar price.
Selections
Win: Despo’s Dream (PP5)
Place: A Maize Zing Dotie (PP2)
Show: Irish Jackson (PP3)
Betting Strategy: If Proud Foot scratches, this race becomes a strong single opportunity on Despo’s Dream in multi-race wagers. Use her on top of A Maize Zing Dotie and Irish Jackson in exactas. If Proud Foot runs, consider a wider exacta box of PP5, PP4, and PP2, as Proud Foot could hold on with the speed bias. The Early Pick 5 begins in this race.
Race 2 — Starter Allowance $50,000, 4YO+, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $60,000
Post Time: 1:41 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
This is a one-mile route with six entered, though House United (PP2) is on the scratch watch for Vet-Illness. If he scratches, the field drops to five. Carvellian Quest (PP4) is likely to be forwardly placed, while Oil Capital (PP3) and Refuah (PP6) should stalk the pace. Rock the Weekend (PP1) could show some early speed from the rail. The pace appears moderate with no clear speed-ball, favoring tactical speed types who can sit just off the lead and make a move on the far turn.
Key Contenders
Carvellian Quest (PP4, ML 7/5) is the clear morning line favorite, trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci and ridden by Manuel Franco. The algorithm-based projections place him as the top selection with an expected value of 1.0. He brings strong starter allowance form and the Franco-Kantarmaci combination gives him a reliable pilot. His 7/5 odds reflect the class edge he holds over this field, and in a race with a moderate pace, his tactical style should allow him to sit a comfortable trip and kick clear in the stretch.
Oil Capital (PP3, ML 5/2) is one of two Linda Rice entries in this race. He is a 4-year-old colt with the advantage of age and potential improvement. Kendrick Carmouche rides, and the Rice barn has been very productive this winter. He breaks from post 3, which is a favorable position given the inside bias for route races. His 5/2 morning line seems fair given the competition.
Secondary Choices
Refuah (PP6, ML 9/2) is a 7-year-old veteran for trainer Wayne Potts with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. Algorithm projections slot him third with an expected value of 1.8, very close to House United. He has starter-level experience and should sit a stalking trip from the outside. His outside draw is a mild concern given the bias, but Santana is capable of navigating him into a favorable position early in the race.
House United (PP2, ML 4/1) is on the scratch watch but projects as a legitimate contender if he runs, ranked second by algorithmic analysis. Trained by Kantarmaci (same barn as the favorite), he draws inside and could benefit from the rail bias. His vet-illness designation makes him a risky wager.
Longshots
Rock the Weekend (PP1, ML 12/1) draws the rail and could benefit from the persistent inside bias. He is outclassed on paper, but at 12/1, a rail trip with no early pressure could allow him to hang around for a minor share in a race that may not feature a blazing pace.
Selections
Win: Carvellian Quest (PP4)
Place: Oil Capital (PP3)
Show: Refuah (PP6)
Betting Strategy: Carvellian Quest is the most likely winner and can be used as a single in the Daily Double and Pick 3. For exacta value, key him over Oil Capital and Refuah. If House United runs, he must be included in vertical exotics given the Kantarmaci barn’s two-horse entry structure.
Race 3 — Claiming $17,500, Fillies and Mares 4YO+, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $32,000
Post Time: 2:11 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
This is the lowest-purse race on the card and features a competitive trio at the top of the morning line. Amity Island (PP6) is on the scratch watch. Carolina Smokeshow (PP1) could show some early speed from the rail. Mezcalifornia (PP2) is likely to be forwardly placed under Manuel Franco. Current Climate (PP3) is a tactical type for Linda Rice. Truthorconsequence (PP4) with Flavien Prat could sit a stalking trip. The pace scenario appears moderate with no extreme speed, favoring horses with tactical versatility.
Key Contenders
Current Climate (PP3, ML 2/1) is the top algorithmic selection with an expected value of 1.0. An 8-year-old mare for Linda Rice and Sahin Civaci, she brings extensive experience and the Rice barn’s reliability. Her inside post position (3) suits the bias pattern, and she should sit a comfortable trip just off the pace. Rice’s overall meet numbers (24% win, 57% in-the-money) make any of her runners dangerous.
Mezcalifornia (PP2, ML 9/5) is actually the slight morning line favorite. Trained by George Weaver and ridden by Manuel Franco, she is a 4-year-old filly stepping up to face older mares for the first time. She draws post 2, which is an excellent position for the bias. Franco’s 21% win rate at the meet gives her a reliable rider. She may have the most upside given her age, but the class question against veterans is real.
Truthorconsequence (PP4, ML 5/2) is trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Flavien Prat, the highest-percentage jockey at the meet (27% wins). This combination alone makes her dangerous. She is a 4-year-old filly who should get a good stalking trip from post 4. Cox runners shipping into Aqueduct for a $17,500 claiming tag suggest the barn believes she fits perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Carolina Smokeshow (PP1, ML 4/1) draws the rail and could benefit enormously from the inside bias. She is a 4-year-old for Patrick Quick with Omar Hernandez Moreno riding. Algorithm analysis slots her second (expected 2.3), and at 4/1 she could offer overlay value if the public focuses on the top three.
Longshots
She’s Complicated (PP5, ML 15/1) gets a weight break at 116 lbs with apprentice Dalila Rivera. At 15/1, she is a longshot with limited recent form, but the weight allowance and the possibility of pace coming back to her make her a reasonable inclusion in wide exotic spreads.
Selections
Win: Truthorconsequence (PP4)
Place: Current Climate (PP3)
Show: Mezcalifornia (PP2)
Betting Strategy: This is a competitive race with three horses between 9/5 and 5/2 on the morning line. Play an exacta box of PP4-PP3-PP2 for coverage. For trifecta value, add Carolina Smokeshow (PP1) in the third spot. The Pick 6 begins in this race, and this is not a leg to single.
Race 4 — Claiming $20,000/$25,000 NYB, 4YO+, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $46,000
Post Time: 2:42 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
A six-horse sprint where speed is a critical factor given the 6-furlong distance and the strong inside/speed bias at Aqueduct. Thrill of It (PP1) is on the scratch watch, which would remove the rail horse and potentially open things up for the inside posts. Looms Boldly (PP3) and Stewie (PP4) both project to show early speed. Catch the Smoke (PP6) with Prat is likely to stalk. Timaeus (PP2) should be forwardly placed from post 2. The pace figures to be honest with two or three horses pressing early, which could set up late closers, but the bias heavily favors those who can secure early position near the rail.
Key Contenders
Stewie (PP4, ML 2/1) is the morning line favorite for trainer Rob Atras and jockey Manuel Franco. He receives a 2-lb weight allowance at 121 lbs for not having won since August 22, 2025. Franco is the logical choice for a race with tactical speed, and Stewie’s expected finish value of 1.1 is essentially dead even with Looms Boldly at 1.0. Atras has been a competitive trainer at the Aqueduct meet and Franco should position Stewie perfectly off the pace.
Looms Boldly (PP3, ML 5/2) is the top algorithmic selection, ranked just barely above Stewie. He draws post 3, which is favorable for the bias pattern in sprints. Christopher Elliott rides for trainer Orlando Noda. His expected finish value of 1.0 suggests he is the most likely winner on paper, but the 5/2 morning line offers slightly better value than Stewie at 2/1.
Secondary Choices
Catch the Smoke (PP6, ML 3/1) gets Flavien Prat, who at 27% wins is the top jockey on the circuit. The Prat factor alone makes him dangerous. He is a 7-year-old for Robert Falcone Jr. and draws the outside, which is a negative in the bias pattern for sprints. He receives a 2-lb allowance at 121 lbs. His expected value of 2.6 suggests he is a tier below the top two, but Prat’s ability to find the right trip gives him an outsized chance.
Timaeus (PP2, ML 7/2) draws post 2, a prime spot given the inside bias. He is trained by Rudy Rodriguez, a veteran of the New York circuit, and ridden by Ruben Silvera. At 7/2, he offers value as a horse who can save ground from an inside draw. His expected value of 2.2 slots him as a solid third choice.
Longshots
Thrill of It (PP1, ML 8/1) is on the scratch watch but draws the rail — the most advantageous position in the bias pattern. If he runs, his 8/1 odds represent potential value for a horse who could benefit from a ground-saving trip and the rail advantage. Life and Light (PP5, ML 12/1) appears outclassed.
Selections
Win: Looms Boldly (PP3)
Place: Stewie (PP4)
Show: Catch the Smoke (PP6)
Betting Strategy: This is the tightest race on the card at the top. An exacta box of PP3-PP4 with a Prat saver of PP6 underneath in trifectas covers the most likely outcomes. The Late Pick 5 and Grand Slam both begin in this race, making it a critical sequencing leg.
Race 5 — Maiden Claiming $20,000/$25,000 NYB, Fillies and Mares 3YO+, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $34,000
Post Time: 3:13 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
Seven entered but two are on the scratch watch (Tree House PP3 and Lady Meringue PP7). If both scratch, the field drops to five. Will of a Womanne (PP1) is the prohibitive 4/5 morning line favorite and draws the rail, perfectly positioned for the inside bias. There is limited early speed in this field, suggesting Will of a Womanne could control the pace on her terms under Kendrick Carmouche. This race projects as a slow-to-moderate pace scenario that heavily favors the favorite.
Key Contenders
Will of a Womanne (PP1, ML 4/5) is the dominant selection in this race by every metric. The algorithm gives her an expected finish value of 1.0 with clear separation from the rest of the field. She is a 4-year-old filly for Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. She draws the rail, which is the ideal post in the current bias pattern for sprints. At 4/5, there is no value betting her to win outright, but she is a strong single in multi-race wagers.
Secondary Choices
Caitlins Threes (PP2, ML 5/2) is the only realistic alternative. She is a 3-year-old for Robert Falcone Jr. who gets a weight break at 120 lbs. Luis R. Rivera Jr. rides. She draws post 2, another favorable position. Her expected value of 3.8 suggests she is clearly second-best but at a significant gap from the favorite. She could benefit if Will of a Womanne has any trouble breaking from the gate.
Celeslia (PP6, ML 6/1) is a 4-year-old for Paul Barrow with Reylu Gutierrez. She has shown some ability without breaking through. At 6/1, she could outperform her odds for a placing share.
Longshots
My Daughters’ Gift (PP5, ML 30/1) and Looking At Annie (PP4, ML 30/1) are both extreme longshots with limited chance against this field. Tree House (PP3, ML 15/1) is on the scratch watch for illness and would be difficult to recommend even if she ran.
Selections
Win: Will of a Womanne (PP1)
Place: Caitlins Threes (PP2)
Show: Celeslia (PP6)
Betting Strategy: Will of a Womanne is the strongest single on the entire card. Use her as an anchor in the Early Pick 5, Pick 4, and Pick 3. For vertical exotics within this race, key her on top of Caitlins Threes and Celeslia in exactas. Do not spread beyond these three in trifectas unless you are seeking a bomb payoff.
Race 6 — Maiden Claiming $40,000, Fillies 3YO NYB, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $42,000
Post Time: 3:44 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
An eight-horse field of New York-bred 3-year-old maiden fillies going one mile on the dirt. This is one of the most difficult races on the card to handicap, as many of these runners have limited or no race experience at the route distance. There is no clear speed-ball in this field, suggesting a moderate pace scenario. Inside posts could benefit from the bias, but at a mile with first-time route runners, the race may set up for horses with some tactical speed who can hold position into the far turn.
Key Contenders
Queen Sally (PP8, ML 8/5) is the morning line favorite and the top algorithmic selection (expected 1.0). Trained by Ralph D’Alessandro and ridden by Christopher Elliott, she draws the outside in post 8, which is a negative in the current bias pattern. However, her 8/5 morning line suggests the linemaker sees a significant class edge. Elliott’s 16% win rate is moderate, but this horse appears to have the best overall profile in a weak maiden field.
Boiling Point (PP6, ML 7/2) is the second choice, trained by Gary Sciacca with Sahin Civaci aboard. She has first-time blinkers (indicated by the “b” equipment notation). Her expected value of 2.1 makes her the clear second choice. The addition of blinkers often signals a barn expecting improvement, and at 7/2, she could offer value if Queen Sally’s outside draw proves problematic.
Secondary Choices
Imnobodysfool (PP2, ML 4/1) draws the inside and benefits from the rail bias. She is trained by James Bentley Begg with Reylu Gutierrez riding, and the “b” equipment notation indicates first-time blinkers. Her post 2 draw is a significant advantage in the current track conditions. At 4/1, she offers good value as a horse who can save ground throughout.
Saratoga Sunset (PP3, ML 8/1) also shows first-time blinkers from post 3. She is trained by Paul Barrow with Ruben Silvera. Her 8/1 morning line and expected value of 2.7 suggest she is competitive with Imnobodysfool and could outrun her odds.
Longshots
Icy Legs (PP1, ML 5/1) draws the rail for Ricardo Santana Jr. and trainer Jose Jimenez. The rail draw is advantageous, and Santana is a top-class rider. At 5/1, she warrants respect and could be live at a price.
Wayward Queen (PP7, ML 12/1) gets Dalila Rivera at 115 lbs, a meaningful weight advantage. She is trained by Assaf Ronen and could factor at a price if she handles the mile distance.
Selections
Win: Queen Sally (PP8)
Place: Boiling Point (PP6)
Show: Imnobodysfool (PP2)
Betting Strategy: This is a spread race. In the Pick 6, use Queen Sally, Boiling Point, Imnobodysfool, and Icy Legs. For exactas, key Queen Sally over Boiling Point and Imnobodysfool with a saver of Icy Legs underneath.
Race 7 — Claiming $100,000, 4YO+, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $80,000
Post Time: 4:14 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
This is the featured race on the card, an eight-horse field at the $100,000 claiming level going one mile. The pace scenario is competitive. Wild Vine (PP2) and Bourbon Day (PP3) could be forwardly placed, while Wynstock (PP5) for Brad Cox should sit a stalking trip under Manuel Franco. Crushed It (PP6) has been highlighted as a bounce-back candidate by TimeformUS. Adero (PP1) draws the rail and could benefit from the bias. The pace appears moderate with several tactical types, setting up a race decided by class and finishing ability rather than pure speed.
Key Contenders
Wynstock (PP5, ML 5/2) is the morning line favorite, a 5-year-old horse for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Manuel Franco. Cox is one of the elite trainers in North America, and shipping a horse into Aqueduct’s $100K claiming level suggests confidence. Franco’s consistency (21% wins at the meet) provides a reliable ride. He should sit just off the pace and have enough run to get there in the stretch. The concern is his outside-ish post in the bias pattern, but Franco should be able to navigate him into a favorable position.
Bourbon Day (PP3, ML 3/1) is the top algorithmic selection (expected 1.0) for Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano. He draws inside in post 3, a beneficial position. His 3/1 morning line offers potential value against the shorter-priced favorite. The Rice-Lezcano combination has been highly productive all meet, and at a mile on the dirt in claiming company, they are extremely dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Wild Vine (PP2, ML 4/1) draws post 2 for trainer Jamie Ness with Jaime Rodriguez aboard. He is a 7-year-old veteran who should be forwardly placed from the inside. The rail bias strongly favors his inside draw, and at 4/1, he offers solid value as a potential pace presser who could hold on if the race unfolds favorably. Algorithm projections rank him second (expected 1.5), very close to the top selection.
Adero (PP1, ML 12/1) draws the rail for John Servis with Kendrick Carmouche. He receives a 2-lb allowance at 121 lbs. Algorithm analysis ranks him third (expected 1.7), which is remarkably close to the top two and far ahead of what his 12/1 morning line suggests. He is the sleeper of the race and could offer enormous value if the rail bias plays out as it has throughout the meet.
Crushed It (PP6, ML 6/1) has been highlighted as the TimeformUS Highlight Horse for Sunday by David Aragona at DRF. He is trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Flavien Prat. The Maker-Prat combination is formidable, and the DRF endorsement suggests his recent form may be undervalued. At 6/1, he offers value as a class horse with the top jockey.
Bramito (PP4, ML 5/1) gets Ricardo Santana Jr. and trainer Steven Schauer. His expected value of 2.6 slots him as a mid-tier contender. He has been competitive at similar levels and Santana gives him a strong ride.
Longshots
Mr Skylight (PP8, ML 10/1) draws the far outside for the Joe Sharp barn with Sahin Civaci. His expected value of 5.0 puts him well behind the top group, and the outside draw is a significant disadvantage.
Eliminate (PP7, ML 15/1) is another Joe Sharp runner with Christopher Elliott. At 15/1, he is a deep price and would need a significant pace meltdown to factor.
Selections
Win: Bourbon Day (PP3)
Place: Wynstock (PP5)
Show: Wild Vine (PP2)
Betting Strategy: This is the best race on the card for exotic wagering. Use Bourbon Day and Wynstock in exactas in both directions. For trifectas, key Bourbon Day on top with Wynstock, Wild Vine, and Crushed It underneath. Adero (PP1) at 12/1 is the value play of the card from the rail — include him in superfecta combinations. This race is also part of the Daily Double with Race 8.
Race 8 — Maiden Claiming $20,000/$25,000 NYB, 4YO+, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $34,000
Post Time: 4:45 PM Eastern
Pace Analysis
Nine entered with Uncle Barrie (PP7) on the scratch watch by the Stewards. This is a maiden claimer at one mile, the nightcap on the card. The pace is difficult to project with unproven maidens, but Thorsness (PP5) for Todd Pletcher should show some tactical speed. Noguchi (PP2) for Linda Rice is likely to be forwardly placed from the inside. Projectability (PP6) and Beck’s Dreamer (PP1) could also show early interest. The race projects as a moderate pace that should favor horses with tactical speed and inside position.
Key Contenders
Thorsness (PP5, ML 7/2) is the top algorithmic pick (expected 1.0) for trainer Todd Pletcher with Flavien Prat. Pletcher is one of the most accomplished trainers in North America, and having Prat aboard a maiden claimer signals confidence. At 7/2, he may actually be undervalued given the combination. His post 5 position is acceptable for a mile on the dirt.
Noguchi (PP2, ML 5/2) is the morning line favorite for Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano. He is a 4-year-old colt (one of only two colts in the field) who draws post 2, an excellent position for the bias. Rice and Lezcano have been the most productive combination at the meet, and Noguchi’s breeding and inside draw give him every advantage. His expected value of 1.7 makes him the clear second choice by the numbers.
Secondary Choices
Projectability (PP6, ML 9/2) is trained by Antonio Arriaga with Jaime Rodriguez riding. His expected value of 3.8 slots him as a clear third. At 9/2, he is fair value as a horse who could pick up the pieces if the favorites falter.
Sports Hero (PP8, ML 8/1) gets Christopher Elliott for James Ryerson. He draws wide in post 8 but has an expected value of 4.2, suggesting he is competitive at this level. His outside draw is a concern given the bias.
Good Cop (PP9, ML 5/1) is the second Linda Rice runner, ridden by Sahin Civaci from the far outside post 9. His expected value of 4.5 puts him a notch below Sports Hero. Rice could split her strong riders between the two entries, with Lezcano on the more favored Noguchi.
Longshots
Beck’s Dreamer (PP1, ML 6/1) draws the rail for Wayne Potts with Reylu Gutierrez. The rail draw is a significant advantage in the bias pattern, and at 6/1, he could outrun his odds. His expected value of 4.7 is high, but the rail advantage could make him dangerous for a minor share.
Inonit (PP4, ML 12/1) has an inside draw and could be live at a price. Daytona Moonshine (PP3, ML 15/1) is a longshot who would need a perfect trip.
Selections
Win: Noguchi (PP2)
Place: Thorsness (PP5)
Show: Projectability (PP6)
Betting Strategy: Despite Thorsness being the top algorithmic pick, Noguchi offers a better post position for the bias and the Rice-Lezcano factor is hard to ignore. Play both ways in exactas (PP2/PP5 and PP5/PP2). For trifectas, key PP2 and PP5 over Projectability, Sports Hero, and Beck’s Dreamer. The nightcap has no multi-race wager starting from it, so focus on vertical exotics.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Flavien Prat leads the Aqueduct jockey colony with a 27% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate at the current meet. He has mounts in five races today (Proud Foot R1, Truthorconsequence R3, Catch the Smoke R4, Crushed It R7, Thorsness R8). His mount on Crushed It in Race 7 was highlighted as the TimeformUS selection of the day. Prat’s ability to adapt to track bias and find the right trips makes every one of his mounts dangerous, even when not on the favorite.
Jose Lezcano has been consistently productive with a 24% win rate and 61% in-the-money rate. His primary connections are with trainer Linda Rice, and they team up on Despo’s Dream (R1), Bourbon Day (R7), and Noguchi (R8). Lezcano excels in route races where his patience and timing allow him to place horses perfectly in the stretch.
Manuel Franco rides with a 21% win rate and 52% in-the-money rate. He has high-profile mounts on A Maize Zing Dotie (R1), Carvellian Quest (R2), Mezcalifornia (R3), Stewie (R4), and Wynstock (R7). Franco is especially effective in races where tactical speed is required, and his mount on Wynstock in the featured seventh race bears close watching.
Kendrick Carmouche has been solid at the meet and rides two Rice runners — Oil Capital (R2) and Will of a Womanne (R5). He also picks up the mount on Adero (R7), the potential value play from the rail in the featured race.
Ricardo Santana Jr. has mounts on Refuah (R2), Bramito (R7), and Icy Legs (R6). He is a skilled rider who excels at Aqueduct and should not be underestimated on any of his mounts.
Christopher Elliott has the busiest book on the card with rides in Races 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8. His 16% win rate is modest but he has been active and has been placed on some competitive mounts by multiple barns.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice dominates the Aqueduct winter meet with a 24% win rate and 57% in-the-money percentage from 96 starters. She has entries in seven of the eight races today: Despo’s Dream (R1), Oil Capital and Caddiemaster (R2), Current Climate (R3), Will of a Womanne and Lady Meringue (R5), Bourbon Day (R7), and Noguchi and Good Cop (R8). Her strongest plays appear to be Will of a Womanne (R5), Bourbon Day (R7), and Noguchi (R8). When Rice fires at this level with Lezcano or Carmouche, she must be taken seriously.
Brad Cox has two entries on the card: Truthorconsequence (R3) and Wynstock (R7). Cox is an elite national trainer who ships selectively to Aqueduct, and his entries should be respected. Wynstock in the featured seventh is his most high-profile runner of the day.
Robert N. Falcone Jr. enters with a 38% win rate and 62% in-the-money rate from 13 starters at the meet, the highest win percentage among trainers with meaningful sample sizes. He saddles Irish Jackson (R1), Caitlins Threes (R5), and Catch the Smoke (R4). His small-but-efficient operation makes every runner worth monitoring.
Richard E. Dutrow Jr. trains Proud Foot (R1), who is on the scratch watch. If she runs, Dutrow is a win-or-else type trainer whose horses typically go all out. His 17% win rate is lower than some competitors, but he is effective with speed horses at sprint distances.
Todd Pletcher trains Thorsness (R8) in the nightcap. Pletcher dropping a horse into maiden claiming company with Prat aboard is a strong signal. This combination historically fires at a very high rate in these spots.
Rob Atras trains Stewie (R4), the morning line favorite in the fourth race. Atras has been competitive at the meet and his placement of Franco on Stewie reflects confidence in the runner.
Michael Maker trains Crushed It (R7), the DRF TimeformUS Highlight Horse for the day. Maker is a skilled conditioner who places horses well, and this spot suggests he believes Crushed It can bounce back.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5, $0.50 minimum) is the marquee wager of the early card. The strongest singles in this sequence are Despo’s Dream (R1, if Proud Foot scratches), Carvellian Quest (R2), and Will of a Womanne (R5). The spreads should come in Races 3 and 4, where the competitive fields offer no standout. A recommended ticket structure:
Leg 1 (R1): PP5 Despo’s Dream (single if Proud Foot scratches; add PP4 if she runs)
Leg 2 (R2): PP4 Carvellian Quest (single)
Leg 3 (R3): PP2, PP3, PP4 (Mezcalifornia, Current Climate, Truthorconsequence)
Leg 4 (R4): PP3, PP4, PP6 (Looms Boldly, Stewie, Catch the Smoke)
Leg 5 (R5): PP1 Will of a Womanne (single)
The Late Pick 5 (Races 4-8, $0.50 minimum) offers the best chance at a significant payoff, particularly through the wide-open Race 6 (maiden fillies) and the competitive Race 7 (featured claiming). Singles: Will of a Womanne (R5). Spreads: R4 (Looms Boldly, Stewie, Catch the Smoke), R6 (Queen Sally, Boiling Point, Imnobodysfool, Icy Legs), R7 (Bourbon Day, Wynstock, Wild Vine, Crushed It), R8 (Noguchi, Thorsness).
The Grand Slam (Races 4-7, $1 minimum) begins in Race 4 and runs through the featured seventh. This is an excellent wager for the card, as it captures the most competitive races. Key leg: single Will of a Womanne in Race 5, spread Races 4, 6, and 7.
Value Play of the Day: Adero (PP1, Race 7) at a morning line of 12/1. The algorithm ranks him third overall (expected 1.7), which is remarkably close to the top selections and dramatically undervalued at 12/1. He draws the rail, which has been the most advantageous post position throughout the winter meet. Kendrick Carmouche is a capable pilot who knows how to take advantage of the inside path. He receives a 2-lb weight allowance. If the rail bias continues, Adero at 12/1 is the best price-to-probability ratio on the entire card.
Secondary Value Play: Crushed It (PP6, Race 7) at 6/1, highlighted as the TimeformUS selection by David Aragona at DRF. With Prat aboard and Maker conditioning, a bounce-back effort at this price represents meaningful value in the featured race.
Morning Line vs. Algorithmic Discrepancies: The largest gaps between morning line and algorithmic rankings are Adero (R7, 12/1 ML vs. expected 1.7), Beck’s Dreamer (R8, 6/1 ML with rail draw), and Carolina Smokeshow (R3, 4/1 ML vs. expected 2.3). These horses should be included in exotic wagers where their prices exceed their projected probabilities.
Daily Double (Races 7-8): A compelling end-of-card wager. Key Bourbon Day and Wynstock in Race 7 over Noguchi and Thorsness in Race 8 for four combinations that cover the most likely outcomes in both races.
