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Aqueduct Racetrack presents a seven-race card on Thursday, February 26, 2026, with a first post of 1:10 PM Eastern. The card features a mix of claiming, maiden claiming, and starter allowance races exclusively on the dirt, with distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile. Purses range from $27,500 to $60,000, reflecting the typical winter meet offering at the Big A.
This is the first racing day since the blizzard that forced cancellation of Sunday’s card on February 22. The track has been maintained throughout the weather disruption, and the return to racing will demand close attention to how the surface is playing after the storm. Several horses appear on the scratch watch, including Fever Night (PP1, Race 1) for private vet illness, New York Scrappy (PP2, Race 2) for private vet illness, My First Love (PP4, Race 5) for regular vet illness, Shoot the Nickel (PP3, Race 6) for private vet illness, and Bonsai Warrior (PP4, Race 7) for a trainer scratch. The algorithmic analysis from one source also projects Ez Roll (PP3) and Salming (PP6) in Race 3 as potential scratches, as well as Ima Big Bad Wolf (PP3) in Race 4. These should be monitored closely before committing to wagers.
The card features competitive fields throughout, with Race 6 (Starter Allowance, $60,000 purse) representing the top class level of the day. Linda Rice, the dominant trainer at the winter meet, has entrants across five of the seven races, making her barn a central storyline all afternoon.
Weather and Track Conditions
At the 10:15 AM track update, conditions at Aqueduct were overcast with a temperature of 37 degrees Fahrenheit, wind speed of 7 MPH, humidity at 64 percent, visibility of 16 miles, and cloud cover at 100 percent. Weather Underground’s forecast calls for a high around 45 degrees, with a mix of clouds and sun early giving way to cloudy skies by the afternoon, and winds remaining light and variable. No precipitation is expected during racing hours, which is a welcome development following the blizzard that dumped heavy snow and produced extremely high winds earlier in the week.
The main track is expected to carry a Fast rating. The surface has been resilient throughout the winter, and maintenance crews have had several days to restore the track since the blizzard. The cold temperatures and recent moisture could produce a surface that plays tighter than usual, potentially favoring speed and horses who can save ground along the rail. The combination of cold air and residual moisture from the storm may also create heavier kickback, which tends to disadvantage deep closers running through traffic.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The Aqueduct main track during the 2026 winter meet has displayed a recurring pattern that handicappers must factor into every race. NYRA handicapper Andy Serling’s track trend notes reveal that the rail has been a significant advantage on many recent racing days. Specifically, in the most recent sessions before the blizzard break, the trends were as follows:
On Saturday, February 22, the rail was very good and likely a significant advantage, with most effective closers saving ground for a portion of the race. On Sunday, February 23, the rail continued to be a significant advantage for the most part. On Friday, February 21, it was hard to argue that the rail and speed were not an advantage. On Saturday, February 15, however, the track displayed a significant outside flow, and on February 14, most effective running was done well off the rail. By the time the blizzard shutdown occurred, the pattern had swung back to favoring inside speed.
The general consensus among handicappers is that inside positions at Aqueduct are advantageous, particularly in small fields, with posts 1 through 6 tending to be more profitable in both routes and sprints. In one-mile races, which are one-turn events at Aqueduct, inside draws are particularly valuable because horses drawn outside must travel extra ground to obtain position. Speed and pace-pressing types breaking from inside posts have controlled many races during this meet, especially in sprints and one-turn miles.
The track trends from February 27 (the day after today’s card) indicate the track played fairly, and February 28 showed the rail was definitely an advantage again. Given the overall pattern, handicappers should approach today’s card with a lean toward inside speed, particularly in the one-turn mile events (Races 1, 3, and 4). Any closers attempting to rally should ideally be saving ground through much of the race. Monitor the early races closely to see if the track plays fair after the break or reverts to the strong inside/speed bias seen through most of February.
Race 1: Claiming $12,500, 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time: 1:10 PM ET
Purse: $27,500. For four-year-olds and upward which have never won two races. Weight: 123 lbs. Field of 6.
Note: Fever Night (PP1) is on the scratch watch for private vet illness.
Pace Analysis
This one-turn mile shapes up with moderate early pace. Nantz (PP2) is classified as a fast leader who will look to establish position early from his inside draw. Superpower (PP4) is a mid-pack leader type who will press from a mid-pack position. Fever Night (PP1), if he runs, has shown the fastest deep-closing style but will need the pace to set up for him. Grand Commander (PP5) is a mid-pack closer who graduated at this distance and track, giving him proven ability to rally. With only one true front-runner, the pace figures to be honest but not contentious, which could favor the pressing types.
Key Contenders
Superpower (PP4) is the morning-line favorite at 3/2 and earns strong consensus support from multiple handicapping sources. This four-year-old gelding trained by Miguel Clement breaks from post 4 with Jaime Rodriguez aboard. Rodriguez has 26 wins from 148 starts at the meet, a 17.6 percent clip with solid 43.9 percent in-the-money numbers. Superpower has a 50 percent in-the-money rate from eight career starts and fits well at this level, having raced against $20,000 claimers most recently. His mid-pack pressing style suits the expected pace scenario. The algorithmic projections from one source rank him as the top choice at an expected value of 1.3. He is also owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, who have confirmed this start.
Fever Night (PP1) draws the rail and carries a 2/1 morning line with Linda Rice training and Jose Lezcano riding. If he runs, the post 1 draw is a major asset given the rail bias. His speed figures show him as the fastest in the field, and multiple projection models rank him first or co-first. Lezcano is the second-leading jockey at the meet with a 25 percent win rate. However, the scratch watch listing for vet illness is a serious concern that could remove him from the race entirely or compromise his readiness.
Secondary Choices
Grand Commander (PP5) at 7/2 on the morning line draws support as a horse with proven form at this distance, having won a one-mile race at Aqueduct in his third-to-last start and finishing third in his last two. Bruce R. Brown trains and Luis R. Rivera Jr. rides. One handicapper selected him as the top pick in this race. His mid-pack closing style is a slight negative given the bias pattern, but his class edge at this level and his recent consistency make him a factor.
Nantz (PP2) at 9/2 is a fast leader type who draws post 2, giving him a positional advantage in the bias. He is cutting back from sprints to a mile, which is a question, but his tactical speed from the inside could carry him further than expected. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides for trainer Carlos F. Martin.
Longshots
Taparino (PP6) at 8/1 is a deep closer trained by Jena M. Antonucci with Christopher Elliott aboard. His running style does not align with the rail/speed bias, but he has strong in-the-money consistency at 47 percent career with a record of 1-4-7 from 15 starts. He could pick up minor shares at a price.
Messi the Magician (PP3) at 20/1 is the clear throw-out. A six-year-old with 1 win from 24 starts and three straight sixth-place finishes, he offers no discernible route to victory here.
Selections
Win: Superpower (PP4)
Place: Fever Night (PP1) — if he runs
Show: Grand Commander (PP5)
Betting Strategy: If Fever Night scratches, the field shrinks to five and Superpower becomes a strong win candidate. Key Superpower over Grand Commander and Nantz in exactas. If Fever Night runs, consider a three-horse box exacta of Superpower, Fever Night, and Grand Commander.
Race 2: Claiming $30,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 1:41 PM ET
Purse: $43,000 (up to $7,482 NYSBFOA). For four-year-olds and upward which have never won three races or four-year-olds. Weight: 123 lbs. Field of 6.
Note: New York Scrappy (PP2) is on the scratch watch for private vet illness.
Pace Analysis
This six-furlong sprint has multiple horses with forward running styles, setting up for a contested pace. Typhoon Fury (PP5) is the fastest stalker who will press the speed. Platform (PP6) is a mid-pack leader from the outside who has won 3 of 9 career starts. Free Dance (PP1) is a fast stalker from the rail. Golden Plate (PP4) runs deep and may benefit if the pace collapses. With at least three horses wanting to be forward, expect honest fractions that could set up closers if the speed gets too ambitious.
Key Contenders
Typhoon Fury (PP5) earns the top algorithmic projection with an expected value of 1.0 and a 33 percent projected win probability, highest in the field. This five-year-old gelding trained by Gregory E. Charlerie has strong recent form with a fourth and third in his last two Aqueduct starts. He has a 48 percent career in-the-money rate from 21 starts, showing consistency at this level. Reylu Gutierrez rides at an 8.2 percent win rate for the meet, which is modest, but the horse’s numbers speak for themselves.
New York Scrappy (PP2), if he runs, is the 5/2 morning-line second choice trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci with Manuel Franco aboard. Franco leads all jockeys at the meet with 31 wins and a 19.5 percent strike rate. Kantarmaci also runs at a sharp 19 percent clip. New York Scrappy won his last but one start at Aqueduct and has a respectable 42 percent in-the-money career rate. The scratch watch listing clouds his status considerably.
Secondary Choices
Free Dance (PP1) draws the rail at 4/1 on the morning line with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding for trainer Chris J. Englehart. The DRF highlighted Free Dance as a selection in their Thursday playbook, noting the horse earned a strong figure in a recent effort. From post 1, he can save ground on the inside and take advantage of any rail bias. His fast-stalking style from the inside is ideal for the current track dynamics. Englehart runs at an 18 percent clip at the meet. This is a serious contender who could outrun his odds.
Golden Plate (PP4) at 3/1 is trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche. Rice’s dominance at the meet (40+ wins) makes every one of her runners dangerous. Carmouche is hitting at 23.3 percent from the jockey colony. Golden Plate’s fast deep style could be problematic in the bias, but his class from previous $30,000 claiming races gives him a chance if the pace collapses.
Longshots
Platform (PP6) at 8/1 ships in from Laurel with 3 wins from 9 career starts, including a wire-to-wire victory two back. His mid-pack leading style from the outside post is less than ideal, but his 33 percent career win rate demands respect. Jaime Rodriguez rides for trainer Michael E. Gorham. At the morning-line price, he offers some exotic value.
Register (PP3) at 3/1 with Flavien Prat has the leading jockey of the meet by win percentage (31.1 percent) aboard, but his recent form is poor with a last-out eighth-place finish. His slowest-leads style does not align well with the track’s bias toward speed, making him a risky proposition despite the jockey upgrade.
Selections
Win: Typhoon Fury (PP5)
Place: Free Dance (PP1)
Show: Golden Plate (PP4)
Betting Strategy: Typhoon Fury is a solid win contender and can be used as a key horse in the early daily double. Exacta box Typhoon Fury with Free Dance for the best value. Include Platform underneath in trifectas at his price.
Race 3: Claiming $50,000, 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time: 2:12 PM ET
Purse: $50,000 (up to $8,700 NYSBFOA). For four-year-olds and upward which have never won two races. Weight: 123 lbs. Field of 6.
Note: Ez Roll (PP3) and Salming (PP6) may be scratched per one source’s analysis.
Pace Analysis
If the full field runs, this race has modest early pace. Egyptian (PP1) is a mid-pack leader from the rail. Playa Del Mar (PP4) is the fastest deep type who prefers to close from well off the pace. Fort Nelson (PP5) is a slowest stalker who sits off the pace. If Ez Roll and Salming scratch, this becomes a four-horse field with limited pace pressure, which could set up for a gate-to-wire scenario from Egyptian along the rail.
Key Contenders
Playa Del Mar (PP4) tops one algorithmic model with an expected value of 1.0 and carries the 3/2 morning line. This four-year-old gelding trained by Antonio Arriaga has Jaime Rodriguez riding. He has won 1 of 7 career starts but shows strong in-the-money numbers at 43 percent. His fastest-deep closing style is a concern in the rail bias, however, as he will need to cover ground to get involved.
Egyptian (PP1) is a standout play from the rail at 5/1 on the morning line, trained by Orlando Noda with Gokhan Kocakaya aboard. He earns the Brisnet Spot Play selection for Aqueduct on this card. With a 57 percent career in-the-money rate from 7 starts and a second-place finish at this track and distance last out, he profiles as a strong contender. Drawing post 1 in a one-turn mile at Aqueduct, with the rail bias heavily documented, gives him a significant tactical edge. He is ranked second in algorithmic projections at an expected value of 2.2.
Secondary Choices
Fort Nelson (PP5) at 7/2 on the morning line is trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche. The Rice-Carmouche combination is potent, and Fort Nelson has posted a third and second in his last two Aqueduct starts. He is classified as a slowest stalker, which means he prefers to sit just off the pace and make a move in the stretch. His class at the $50,000 claiming level and Rice’s outstanding meet statistics (40+ wins, 20+ percent strike rate) make him a genuine threat.
Longshots
Middle Market (PP2) at 12/1 is a five-year-old horse who has struggled recently with a sixth-place finish last out at Aqueduct. His mid-pack stalking style could benefit from the inside draw at post 2, but his 24 percent career in-the-money rate from 17 starts suggests he is a notch below the top contenders. At the morning-line price, he merits consideration in trifectas and superfectas.
Selections
Win: Egyptian (PP1)
Place: Fort Nelson (PP5)
Show: Playa Del Mar (PP4)
Betting Strategy: Egyptian from the rail at 5/1 morning line is the value play of the early card. Key Egyptian on top in exactas over Fort Nelson and Playa Del Mar. In a reduced field, the race becomes more playable for win bets. If Ez Roll and Salming scratch, Egyptian becomes an even stronger play in the short field.
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $50,000, 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time: 2:43 PM ET
Purse: $49,000 (up to $8,526 NYSBFOA). For maidens, three-year-olds. Weight: 122 lbs. Field of 7.
Note: Ima Big Bad Wolf (PP3) may be scratched per one source’s analysis.
Pace Analysis
Maiden races are inherently unpredictable in terms of pace. First Blessing (PP1) is the only horse with a fast-leads profile and draws the rail, giving him the opportunity to set a comfortable pace along the inside. Gulfy (PP2) and Ima Big Bad Wolf (PP3), if he runs, are both fast-stalker types who will press the pace. With several first-time starters and lightly raced types, the pace scenario is murky, but First Blessing could control it from the rail.
Key Contenders
Magicstrikesagain (PP6) carries the 2/1 morning line as a first-time starter for the powerhouse combination of trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat. Brown wins at a 24 percent rate nationally and 24 percent at the Aqueduct meet level. Prat leads the Aqueduct jockey colony with a 31.1 percent win rate and a remarkable 71.6 percent in-the-money percentage. The Brown-Prat combination demands respect in any maiden race, and Magicstrikesagain’s breeding profile evidently merits the heavy morning-line support. His only prior start was an eighth of twelve in a 6 1/2-furlong race at Churchill Downs, but the stretch-out to a mile and the change to the Aqueduct surface could unlock improvement.
Gulfy (PP2) at 3/2 on the morning line is a five-start maiden trained by George Weaver with Manuel Franco riding. He finished second at this track and distance last out, demonstrating his ability to compete at this level. Franco is the leading jockey at the meet by total wins. Gulfy has a fastest-stalker style that should allow him to sit a trip just off the pace from his inside post 2 draw. The algorithmic models rate him at an expected value of 1.1, essentially tied for the top spot.
Secondary Choices
First Blessing (PP1) at 8/1 on the morning line is the sleeper of this race. He draws the coveted rail and is the only true front-runner in the field. Trained by Jose M. Jimenez with Reylu Gutierrez riding, he has hit the board in 2 of 5 career starts, including two thirds at this track and distance. One algorithmic model actually projects him as the top choice at an expected value of 1.0, making him a serious upset candidate. In a maiden race with an unclear pace scenario, the horse with speed on the rail in a one-turn mile with a documented inside bias is extremely dangerous.
Crowbar Artist (PP4) at 10/1 is a first-time starter for trainer Richard E. Dutrow Jr. with Sahin Civaci aboard. Dutrow runs at a 12 percent clip at the meet, and any first-time starter from this barn must be respected. Without published workouts or race data to evaluate, this is a speculation play, but Dutrow’s ability to have live runners first time out makes him worth including in exotics at the price.
Longshots
Ruby’s Trouble (PP5) at 12/1 is a first-time starter for trainer Melanie Giddings with Christopher Elliott aboard. Giddings has a 0 percent win rate from 13 starts at the meet, which is discouraging. Go Dharma (PP7) at 30/1 for trainer Naipaul Chatterpaul with Gokhan Kocakaya is the longest shot on the board and offers minimal appeal.
Selections
Win: Magicstrikesagain (PP6)
Place: Gulfy (PP2)
Show: First Blessing (PP1)
Betting Strategy: The Chad Brown / Flavien Prat combination is difficult to beat in maiden races, but Gulfy and First Blessing offer value against what could be a short-priced favorite. Consider an exacta box of Magicstrikesagain, Gulfy, and First Blessing for value. Key Magicstrikesagain on top in trifectas with Gulfy and First Blessing underneath.
Race 5: Claiming $10,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 3:14 PM ET
Purse: $28,000. For fillies and mares four years old and upward. Weight: 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race since August 26, 2025 allowed 2 lbs. Field of 7.
Note: My First Love (PP4) is on the scratch watch for regular vet illness.
Pace Analysis
This filly and mare sprint features several horses with forward running styles, setting up for a potentially contested pace. Open Soul Autism (PP1) is a fast-leads type from the rail. Jackie the Joker (PP6) is classified as slowest-leads, meaning she will want to be near the front but is not as quick early. Miss Lao (PP7) is the fastest-leader type in the field. Maggie T (PP3) presses from a mid-pack position. The presence of multiple speed types suggests honest fractions, which could benefit stalkers and closers.
Key Contenders
Maggie T (PP3) earns the top algorithmic projection at an expected value of 1.0. This six-year-old mare trained by Lolita Shivmangal won her last start at Aqueduct and has a solid 19 percent win rate with 51 percent in-the-money from 37 career starts. Reylu Gutierrez rides. Her mid-pack leader style allows her to sit off the speed and strike in the stretch. Shivmangal’s training statistics are modest (0 for her most recent starts at the meet), but Maggie T’s form speaks for itself.
My First Love (PP4), if she runs, is the 5/2 morning-line favorite trained by Rob Atras with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. Atras wins at an 18 percent rate with 65 percent in-the-money at the meet. This seven-year-old mare has strong career numbers (19 percent win rate, 53 percent in-the-money from 36 starts) and a fast-stalking style that fits well. However, the scratch watch listing for vet illness and a class drop to $10,000 are concerns.
Secondary Choices
Open Soul Autism (PP1) at 6/1 draws the rail with Manuel Franco aboard for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci. Franco’s 19.5 percent win rate leads the meet, and Kantarmaci runs at a 19 percent clip. Open Soul Autism has a strong 29 percent career win rate with 43 percent in-the-money, and her fast-leads style from the rail is perfectly suited to the track bias. She is ranked second in one model’s projections.
Jackie the Joker (PP6) at 3/1 on the morning line has the most career experience in the field with 49 starts and is trained by James W. Ferraro with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. She won two starts back at Aqueduct but was sixth last out. At 12 percent career win rate and 29 percent in-the-money, she is inconsistent but capable on her best day.
Longshots
Dorth’s Sol Dancer (PP2) at 12/1 has the highest career in-the-money rate in the field at 68 percent from 25 starts. Her fastest-closer style is a negative in the bias, and her recent form (three straight off-the-board finishes) is concerning. However, she has an inside draw at post 2 and could save ground if she can rate early. At the morning-line price, she belongs in vertical exotics underneath.
Miss Lao (PP7) at 5/1 carries only 114 lbs with apprentice Dalila A. Rivera aboard, a significant weight advantage. She is the fastest leader in the field and showed form with a third and two seconds in her recent starts. From post 7 in a six-furlong sprint, she will need to use that speed to establish position early, but the weight break and her recent in-the-money consistency make her a factor at the price.
Selections
Win: Maggie T (PP3)
Place: Open Soul Autism (PP1)
Show: My First Love (PP4) — if she runs
Betting Strategy: This race has genuine pace complexity with multiple speed types. If My First Love scratches, the field becomes more playable. Key Maggie T on top over Open Soul Autism and Dorth’s Sol Dancer in exactas. Include Miss Lao in trifectas at her price.
Race 6: Starter Allowance, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 3:45 PM ET
Purse: $60,000 (up to $10,440 NYSBFOA). For four-year-olds and upward which have started for a claiming price of $50,000 or less and which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or state-bred allowance. Weight: 123 lbs. Non-winners of a race since August 26, 2025 allowed 2 lbs. Field of 6.
Note: Shoot the Nickel (PP3) is on the scratch watch for private vet illness.
Pace Analysis
This 5 1/2-furlong dash has genuine speed from multiple angles. Social Hour (PP4) is classified as the fastest-leads type in the field. Seeker’s Hope (PP5) is a slower leader who will try to be involved early. Spirit Dragon (PP2) is a mid-pack stalker who has tactical speed. With two confirmed speed types and a pace-pressing stalker, expect honest early fractions. The 5 1/2-furlong distance is short enough that frontrunners can often hold on, making this a speed-favoring setup that aligns with the track bias.
Key Contenders
Spirit Dragon (PP2) is the dominant horse in this field on paper. At 2/1 on the morning line, this four-year-old gelding trained by Antonio Arriaga has an extraordinary career record: 3 wins, 5 seconds, 6 in-the-money finishes from 6 starts, which equals a 50 percent win rate and 100 percent in-the-money rate. He has won his last two Aqueduct starts, both impressively, and sits in a mid-pack stalking position that should allow him to navigate the pace and kick away in the stretch. Jaime Rodriguez rides. Multiple sources project Spirit Dragon as the top choice, including an expected value of 1.0 in algorithmic models. One video handicapper also highlighted Spirit Dragon as a strong play, noting his recent form and the cutting-back angle.
Social Hour (PP4) at 9/5 on the morning line is trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci with Manuel Franco aboard. He has 4 wins from 18 career starts with a 22 percent win rate and 67 percent in-the-money, an outstanding consistency figure. Franco leads the meet by wins, and Kantarmaci’s barn has been sharp throughout the winter. Social Hour’s fastest-leads style from post 4 gives him every chance to establish the pace and potentially wire the field. One handicapper made Social Hour the top pick in this race.
Secondary Choices
Thirteen G’s (PP1) at 5/1 on the morning line is trained by Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche riding. Rice’s dominance at the winter meet is well-documented, and any runner from her barn at this class level deserves close attention. Thirteen G’s won a six-furlong race at Churchill Downs two starts back but was last of six in his Aqueduct debut. The rail draw is a positive in the bias, and the Rice-Carmouche combination (23.3 percent jockey win rate) provides reliability.
Shoot the Nickel (PP3), if he runs, at 4/1 is trained by Kantarmaci with Gokhan Kocakaya aboard and has an excellent 62 percent career in-the-money rate from 16 starts. His mid-pack deep style is a slight concern, but his consistency cannot be ignored. The scratch watch listing reduces confidence in his participation.
Longshots
Seeker’s Hope (PP5) at 6/1 won two starts back at Aqueduct but regressed to second last out. Ruben Silvera rides for trainer Roshan Samsundar. His slower-leader style means he wants to be near the front, but at this class level, he may struggle to keep up with the sharper speed types. Skytown (PP6) at 12/1 gets a 2 lb. weight allowance at 121 lbs. with Reylu Gutierrez aboard. His recent form is poor (fifth, fourth, sixth in his last three), and the outside post in a sprint is a disadvantage.
Selections
Win: Spirit Dragon (PP2)
Place: Social Hour (PP4)
Show: Thirteen G’s (PP1)
Betting Strategy: Spirit Dragon has the best record in the field and sits a perfect trip as a stalker. He can be used as a single in the Pick 3 and daily double sequences. Exacta of Spirit Dragon over Social Hour and Thirteen G’s. Consider a trifecta key of Spirit Dragon on top with Social Hour, Thirteen G’s, and Shoot the Nickel (if he runs) filling out the lower slots. This is the highest-purse race on the card and warrants aggressive play.
Race 7: Claiming $40,000, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 4:17 PM ET
Purse: $46,000 (up to $8,004 NYSBFOA). For three-year-olds which have never won two races. Weight: 123 lbs. Field of 7.
Note: Bonsai Warrior (PP4) is confirmed scratched by trainer.
Pace Analysis
With Bonsai Warrior scratched, the field drops to six runners. The pace scenario is moderate. Mercilesanihilator (PP1) is classified as a slower-leads type from the rail. Mo Spice (PP5) is a slower-deep type. Miami Kaz (PP6) is the slowest stalker. Southeastern (PP3) is a slower closer who won his last at this track and distance. Escape Hall (PP7) is a mid-pack closer. This shapes up as a race without extreme early speed, which could allow Mercilesanihilator to dictate from the rail.
Key Contenders
Southeastern (PP3) at 5/2 on the morning line is the consensus top selection from multiple sources. Trained by Brad Cox with Flavien Prat riding, this is the most formidable trainer-jockey combination in the race. Cox wins at 26 percent nationally, and Prat’s 31.1 percent win rate at Aqueduct speaks for itself. Southeastern won at this track and distance last out and has a 25 percent career win rate from 4 starts. His fourth-place finish in his most recent start suggests he may have been compromised by the trip that day. One algorithmic model projects him at an expected value of 1.0.
Escape Hall (PP7) at 3/1 on the morning line is trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci with Jaime Rodriguez riding. He has a 60 percent career in-the-money rate from 5 starts, including a win two starts back at Aqueduct at 6 furlongs and a third at 6 1/2 furlongs last out. His mid-pack closing style is less ideal in the bias, and the outside post 7 draw is a negative, but his recent form is strong enough to overcome positional disadvantage. He is projected second in one model at 1.4 expected value.
Secondary Choices
Reside (PP2) at 4/1 on the morning line is a fascinating play. Trained by Amelia J. Green with Manuel Franco riding, he is a perfect 1-for-1 in his career with a wire-to-wire maiden victory at Aqueduct at 5 1/2 furlongs. Franco’s ability and the inside post 2 draw are significant positives. Stretching out from 5 1/2 to 6 1/2 furlongs is the question, but winners from first starts who move up in class often fire at this level. One projection model gives him the highest win probability at 27 percent.
Mercilesanihilator (PP1) at 9/2 on the morning line is trained by Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. Rice’s presence in any race demands attention, and Carmouche’s 23.3 percent win rate is strong. This gelding draws the coveted rail in a 6 1/2-furlong race and finished second at this track and distance last out. His slower-leads style from the rail could set up a comfortable gate-to-wire trip if the pace cooperates. Multiple sources rank him among the top contenders.
Longshots
Mo Spice (PP5) at 6/1 is the second Linda Rice runner in this race, ridden by Jose Lezcano (25 percent meet win rate). He won at 5 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct two starts back and stretches out here. His slower-deep style is problematic for the bias, but having two Rice runners in a field of six means the barn likes its chances.
Miami Kaz (PP6) at 12/1 won his only prior start at Penn National and finished seventh in his Aqueduct debut last out. Ricardo Santana Jr. rides. His form at a lower level and the step up in class make him a risky exotic play. One handicapper did include him in his top three for this race.
Selections
Win: Southeastern (PP3)
Place: Mercilesanihilator (PP1)
Show: Reside (PP2)
Betting Strategy: Southeastern with Prat and Cox is the class of the field, but at a short price, the best approach is to key him in exactas over Mercilesanihilator, Reside, and Escape Hall. The closing daily double using Spirit Dragon in Race 6 with Southeastern in Race 7 is a strong play. Include Mercilesanihilator in trifectas and superfectas from the rail at his price.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The Aqueduct jockey colony for the 2026 winter meet is led by several elite riders whose performance patterns directly impact today’s card.
Flavien Prat is the most efficient rider in the colony with a 31.1 percent win rate and an astounding 71.6 percent in-the-money rate from 74 starts. He is also the national earnings leader among jockeys. He has three mounts today: Register (PP3, Race 2), Ez Roll (PP3, Race 3 — possible scratch), Magicstrikesagain (PP6, Race 4), and Southeastern (PP3, Race 7). His mount on Magicstrikesagain for Chad Brown in the maiden race and Southeastern for Brad Cox in the finale represent two of the strongest trainer-jockey combinations on the card.
Manuel Franco leads the meet by total wins with 31 victories from 159 starts and a 19.5 percent win rate. He has a 61.6 percent in-the-money figure, the second-highest at the meet. His mounts today include New York Scrappy (PP2, Race 2 — possible scratch), Gulfy (PP2, Race 4), Open Soul Autism (PP1, Race 5), and Social Hour (PP4, Race 6). Franco has been particularly effective with trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci this meet.
Jose Lezcano ranks second in total wins at the meet with 28 from 112 starts and a 25 percent win rate, one of the best in the colony. He rides Fever Night (PP1, Race 1 — possible scratch) and Mo Spice (PP5, Race 7) today. His consistency makes him a reliable choice, particularly on Linda Rice trainees.
Jaime Rodriguez has 26 wins from 148 starts at 17.6 percent. He has four mounts today: Superpower (PP4, Race 1), Playa Del Mar (PP4, Race 3), Ima Big Bad Wolf (PP3, Race 4 — possible scratch), Spirit Dragon (PP2, Race 6), and Escape Hall (PP7, Race 7). Rodriguez has been a consistent presence throughout the meet and rides well for the Arriaga and Kantarmaci barns.
Kendrick Carmouche is hitting at 23.3 percent from 90 starts with 21 wins. He rides Golden Plate (PP4, Race 2), Fort Nelson (PP5, Race 3), My First Love (PP4, Race 5 — possible scratch), Thirteen G’s (PP1, Race 6), and Mercilesanihilator (PP1, Race 7). Carmouche draws several inside posts today, and his aggressive riding style meshes well with the rail bias.
Ricardo Santana Jr. has 6 wins from 58 starts at 10.3 percent, a lower win rate than his elite reputation suggests, but a 44.8 percent in-the-money figure that keeps him relevant. He rides Nantz (PP2, Race 1), Free Dance (PP1, Race 2), Jackie the Joker (PP6, Race 5), and Miami Kaz (PP6, Race 7).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice dominates the 2026 Aqueduct winter meet with approximately 40 wins, far ahead of any other conditioner. She posted a remarkable five-win day on January 22, winning every race she entered. Rice has runners in five of today’s seven races: Fever Night (PP1, Race 1), Golden Plate (PP4, Race 2), Fort Nelson (PP5, Race 3), Thirteen G’s (PP1, Race 6), and both Mercilesanihilator (PP1) and Mo Spice (PP5) in Race 7. Her overall meet statistics show approximately a 20 percent win rate with over 50 percent in the money. Any Rice runner at the meet deserves serious consideration, and her multiple-entry strategy in Race 7 suggests she has confidence in at least one of her entrants in the finale.
Chad Brown enters Magicstrikesagain (PP6) in Race 4, his maiden claiming runner with Flavien Prat aboard. Brown wins at 24 percent nationally and is a 24 percent winner at Aqueduct. His maiden claiming runners with first-call jockeys like Prat are often well-meant, and the Brown-Prat pairing is one of the most successful in New York racing.
Brad Cox saddles Southeastern (PP3, Race 7) and potentially Ima Big Bad Wolf (PP3, Race 4). Cox is the third-ranked national trainer with a 26 percent win rate. His runners at Aqueduct, while fewer in number than his southern-based string, are typically pointed and ready to fire. Southeastern won last time at Aqueduct and should be the horse to beat in the finale.
Ilkay Kantarmaci is a quietly productive trainer at the meet with a 19 percent win rate. He has multiple entries today including New York Scrappy (PP2, Race 2), Social Hour (PP4) and Shoot the Nickel (PP3) in Race 6, and Escape Hall (PP7) in Race 7. His pairing with Manuel Franco has been particularly effective.
Antonio Arriaga trains both Playa Del Mar (PP4, Race 3) and Spirit Dragon (PP2, Race 6). Spirit Dragon’s perfect 100 percent in-the-money record from 6 starts is the highlight statistic of the entire card.
Rob Atras, if My First Love runs, enters an experienced mare in Race 5. Atras runs at 18 percent with 65 percent in the money, an outstanding consistency mark.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The seven-race card at Aqueduct today presents several actionable angles and value opportunities. The key theme across the card is the rail bias advantage combined with several potential scratches that could dramatically reshape fields.
The best bet of the card is Spirit Dragon (PP2, Race 6). His 100 percent in-the-money career record, consecutive wins at Aqueduct, and tactical stalking style make him the most reliable runner on the card. At a 2/1 morning line, the price is fair, and he should be used as a single in multi-race wagers.
The best value play is Egyptian (PP1, Race 3). At 5/1 on the morning line, he draws the rail in a one-turn mile that has heavily favored inside speed all meet long. He is the Brisnet Spot Play selection for the day. If Ez Roll and Salming scratch as projected, the field drops to four runners and Egyptian’s chances increase substantially. He could be a generous overlay.
For the late Pick 4 (Races 4 through 7), a suggested structure would be: Race 4 — Magicstrikesagain and Gulfy; Race 5 — Maggie T and Open Soul Autism; Race 6 — Spirit Dragon single; Race 7 — Southeastern, Mercilesanihilator, and Reside. This ticket spreads in the competitive races while singling the most reliable runner.
For the late daily double (Races 6-7), pair Spirit Dragon in Race 6 with Southeastern in Race 7 for the chalk play. For value, use Spirit Dragon with Mercilesanihilator or Reside underneath in Race 7.
The closing-race exacta in Race 7 is appealing. Key Southeastern on top over Mercilesanihilator, Reside, and Escape Hall. Alternatively, box Southeastern with Mercilesanihilator and Reside for a three-horse exacta box at modest cost.
Throughout the card, prioritize horses with inside posts and speed or tactical pressing styles. The documented rail advantage at Aqueduct this winter is the single most valuable edge a handicapper can exploit. Fever Night (PP1, Race 1), Egyptian (PP1, Race 3), First Blessing (PP1, Race 4), Open Soul Autism (PP1, Race 5), and Mercilesanihilator (PP1, Race 7) all draw post 1 and deserve extra credit for their rail position alone.
Monitor the scratch watch closely before finalizing any wagers. Several key runners may be removed, which would significantly alter field sizes and value propositions across the card.
