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Welcome to Aqueduct Racetrack for a Thursday afternoon card featuring ten races. The winter meet is in full swing, and today’s card offers a mix of maiden special weights, allowances, and competitive claiming events. We have a robust slate of New York-bred contests and several open company races that have drawn full fields. The feature races include a high-level allowance in Race 2 and a competitive starter allowance in Race 9.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Ozone Park, New York, calls for typical winter conditions. Expect cold temperatures, likely hovering in the mid-30s. The track surface is expected to be Fast. The Aqueduct winter track (often the inner dirt, though main track configurations vary by specific meet dates) tends to favor speed, especially in sprint races. However, recent trends have shown that the rail can sometimes be dead, pushing horses to the two or three path. Handicappers should watch the early races closely to see if inside speed is holding or if closers are making up ground in the middle of the track.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The colony is led by the usual heavy hitters. Manuel Franco and Flavien Prat are the premier riders to watch today, often getting the first call on prime contenders. Jose Lezcano remains a dominant force, particularly when teaming up with trainer Linda Rice; their strike rate at Aqueduct is historically formidable. Kendrick Carmouche is an aggressive gate rider who excels at sending horses to the lead, a valuable asset on this surface. Watch for Gokhan Kocakaya, who has been picking up live mounts for barns like Ilkay Kantarmaci and often offers better value than the top-tier names.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice continues to be the barn to beat. Her horses are placed aggressively, and she excels in claiming and allowance ranks. When she drops a horse in class or brings one back off a layoff, they are almost always live. Brad Cox and Todd Pletcher have entries today that look well-spotted in maiden and allowance races; their runners usually take plenty of money but deliver consistent results. Ilkay Kantarmaci runs a high-percentage operation here, often finding success with claiming horses moving up or down the ladder. George Weaver has a few interesting entries today, particularly in the maiden ranks.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best betting strategy for today involves focusing on the “Rice/Lezcano” and “Pletcher/Prat” combinations in the early legs of the Pick 5. In the mid-card claiming races, look for value with trainers like Kantarmaci and Maker, who are adept at spotting horses for a win.
Value Play: In Race 6, Merica’s Back looks primed for a top effort for Mike Maker, but if the price is short, look to Fireballin as a viable alternative. Best Bet: Race 1, Undergrad. This Linda Rice trainee looks to have a significant class edge and pace advantage.
1st Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 12:10 PM
Pace Analysis
Undergrad projects to show early speed from the middle of the pack. Tahila may try to protect the rail, but Undergrad likely has the tactical foot to clear or sit just off the pace. Expect a moderate pace which should favor horses near the front.
Key Contenders
Undergrad is the clear horse to beat here. Trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano, she drops slightly in class and figures to be much the best on paper. Her recent form suggests she is ready to break her maiden. Three Nines Fine has been knocking on the door with consistent placings and should be the main danger if the favorite falters.
Secondary Choices
Garden of Grace, representing the Weaver barn with Flavien Prat aboard, has shown flashes of ability and fits well here. Patience N Grace has some speed and could hang around for a piece of the exotics.
Selections
Win: Undergrad (4) – 45% confidence
Place: Three Nines Fine (5) – 25% confidence
Show: Garden of Grace (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Patience N Grace (2) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 12:40 PM
Pace Analysis
This allowance sprint features several horses with early foot. Soloshot and Roman Grace will likely send from the inside. Will Not Be Swayed has speed as well, ensuring an honest pace.
Key Contenders
Romantic Dancer is the morning line favorite for a reason. The Dutrow trainee has been in excellent form and should get a perfect stalking trip behind the speed. Sarir, from the Rice barn, is a consistent runner who fits these conditions perfectly and gets Lezcano.
Secondary Choices
Paula’s a Star has run well against similar company and keeps Manny Franco. Will Not Be Swayed has won recently and could be dangerous if left alone on the lead, though the pace pressure might be higher today.
Selections
Win: Romantic Dancer (2) – 35% confidence
Place: Sarir (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Will Not Be Swayed (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Paula’s a Star (3) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 01:10 PM
Pace Analysis
Swiss Army Knife and Gulfy look to be the primary pace factors in this one-mile event. With a short run to the first turn, post position will be key.
Key Contenders
Swiss Army Knife is a major player for Todd Pletcher. Despite a vet scratch in early January, the work tab suggests readiness, and Prat takes the mount. Gulfy, trained by George Weaver, is another logical contender who should appreciate the distance.
Secondary Choices
Final Joke has Kendrick Carmouche, which implies an aggressive ride. Where’s Your Boom adds depth to the field and could pick up the pieces if the pace collapses.
Selections
Win: Swiss Army Knife (2) – 40% confidence
Place: Gulfy (3) – 30% confidence
Show: Final Joke (4) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Where’s Your Boom (6) – 10% confidence
4th Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 01:41 PM
Pace Analysis
A lower-level claimer where pace can be erratic. Tabloid Material has enough speed to be involved early. Best Impression, if drawing in or overcoming the rail, has back class.
Key Contenders
Tabloid Material represents the Brad Cox barn and looks like the class of this field. Even at this level, the connections demand respect. Open Soul Autism is a consistent check-earner who fits well with this group.
Secondary Choices
Best Impression has had some physical issues recently (vet notes from Jan 18), so check the tote board for clues on fitness. Maggie T could wake up at a price in this soft spot.
Selections
Win: Tabloid Material (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Open Soul Autism (7) – 25% confidence
Show: Best Impression (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Maggie T (4) – 15% confidence
5th Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 02:11 PM
Pace Analysis
Flee and Tenacious Child look quickest on paper. Expect a contested pace in this maiden claiming sprint for NY-breds.
Key Contenders
My Girl Aubree is a Brad Cox trainee with Manny Franco aboard. This barn excels with young horses, and this spot looks ideal for a win. Tenacious Child, trained by Weaver with Prat up, is the main danger and should be right there at the wire.
Secondary Choices
Flee comes from the Kantarmaci barn and could improve off recent efforts. Grit N Glitter had a vet scratch in January but fits on numbers if healthy.
Selections
Win: My Girl Aubree (7) – 35% confidence
Place: Tenacious Child (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Flee (3) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Grit N Glitter (2) – 15% confidence
6th Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 02:42 PM
Pace Analysis
Tiote and Sir Kartrite have speed, but Fireballin is also capable of being forwardly placed. Merica’s Back should be stalking the leaders.
Key Contenders
Merica’s Back is in top form for Mike Maker and Flavien Prat. The horse has been consistent and finds a winnable spot here. Fireballin is another Maker entry who brings strong recent numbers to the table.
Secondary Choices
Roofer returns from a brief illness in January but has the class to compete here. New York Scrappy won recently and steps up, but the Kantarmaci barn is dangerous.
Selections
Win: Merica’s Back (3) – 40% confidence
Place: Fireballin (4) – 25% confidence
Show: Roofer (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: New York Scrappy (7) – 10% confidence
7th Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 03:12 PM
Pace Analysis
Grace and Grit and Rare Society, both trained by Linda Rice, ensure the barn controls the pace scenario here.
Key Contenders
Rare Society looks like the stronger of the Rice pair with Sahin Civaci aboard. She has been running well and fits these conditions. Princess Wadadli is a serious threat for Robert Falcone Jr. and Flavien Prat, coming off good efforts.
Secondary Choices
Lady Angelina for Bill Mott is an intriguing runner who could upset the favorites if the pace heats up. Grace and Grit is the “other Rice” and cannot be ignored.
Selections
Win: Rare Society (7) – 35% confidence
Place: Princess Wadadli (10) – 30% confidence
Show: Lady Angelina (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Grace and Grit (5) – 10% confidence
8th Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 03:42 PM
Pace Analysis
Exploration and Spirit Dragon have plenty of early zip. High Oak may try to close from off the pace in this 7-furlong test.
Key Contenders
Spirit Dragon is the one to beat. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Franco, this horse has the form and connections to dominate this claiming field. High Oak is a class horse dropping in for a tag; Mott places them to win when they drop this low.
Secondary Choices
Analog Jones runs for Linda Rice and always merits respect in these spots. Exploration is another Rice entrant who could be part of the early pace picture.
Selections
Win: Spirit Dragon (7) – 40% confidence
Place: High Oak (4) – 25% confidence
Show: Analog Jones (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Exploration (1) – 10% confidence
9th Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 04:13 PM
Pace Analysis
Cool Andy has speed and the rail. Expect him to be sent hard by Carmouche. House United and Dormello will likely be in chase mode.
Key Contenders
Cool Andy is a quintessential Linda Rice speedball. Breaking from the rail, the strategy will be catch-me-if-you-can. Dormello, trained by Mott, adds class to the race and will be running late.
Secondary Choices
Fiddling Felix gets Prat and should work out a good trip. House United is a consistent check-getter who can hit the board.
Selections
Win: Cool Andy (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Dormello (9) – 30% confidence
Show: Fiddling Felix (8) – 20% confidence
Alternative: House United (3) – 10% confidence
10th Race – Aqueduct – Thursday, February 5th, 2026
Post Time: 04:43 PM
Pace Analysis
Alias and Army Proud figure to contest the early lead. Thorsness should be stalking.
Key Contenders
Alias, another Linda Rice runner, drops in class and looks very tough in this nightcap. The recent illness scratch in January is a slight concern, but if he runs, he is the horse to beat. Thorsness represents the Pletcher/Prat combo and is the logical alternative.
Secondary Choices
Army Proud has speed and should hold on for a share. Seeker’s Hope can pick up the pieces if the leaders tire.
Selections
Win: Alias (10) – 35% confidence
Place: Thorsness (3) – 30% confidence
Show: Army Proud (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Seeker’s Hope (9) – 10% confidence
