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Aqueduct Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 20, 2026 card

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Aqueduct runs an eight-race Friday card on March 20, 2026, with a dirt-only program highlighted by two maiden special/optional events and a solid filly-and-mare allowance in Race 7. The feature on paper is Race 7, an allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares at one mile, which will likely attract most of the late multi-race exotic play. The undercard includes three maiden events (Races 1, 5, 6, and 8) and several claiming races at varying routes and sprints that should provide a good mix of pace scenarios.​

Recent track-trend data at this meet point toward a generally speed-favoring main track, particularly at the sprint distances, with inside posts often preferred from 6 to 7 furlongs. Route races at one mile and longer have been more tactically fair, with forwardly placed runners still doing well but with mid-pack stalkers remaining competitive when the early pace is honest.

Weather and Track Conditions

Specific race-day, hour-by-hour forecasts for Aqueduct Racecourse in Queens are not fully published for March 20, 2026, but historical March weather in the area suggests cool to mild temperatures with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s and lows near freezing. Typical mid-March conditions there imply a fast to possibly good main track, with moisture mostly dependent on overnight or early-morning precipitation; nothing in the current long-range data suggests extreme rain or snow for this date.

Given these seasonal norms, you should expect a standard winter/early-spring Aqueduct main track: relatively tight, often a bit kind to speed, and not excessively deep unless an unexpected weather system moves through. As always, it is critical to watch the first couple of races and adjust for any developing bias, particularly if the rail looks notably stronger or weaker than usual.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Aggregate meet stats up to mid-March show that at 6 furlongs on dirt, approximately half the races are won gate-to-wire, with early-speed styles performing best and mid/outside posts having a slight edge overall. At 6.5 furlongs on dirt, early speed remains preferred though the wire-to-wire rate drops into the high 30s, with middle posts generally the most productive. At route distances (one mile and up), early to pace-pressing runners hold an advantage but not to the extreme seen in some sprint races, and winners draw from a mix of inside and middle posts.

Recent track-trend commentary notes that the main track has shown a good rail on several days, with some cards perceived as speed-tilted and the rail being an advantage, although the most recent notes describe the track as somewhat fairer but still with the inside as a mild positive. Taken together, this suggests a working assumption of a mild speed and inside-post bias, especially in sprints, unless live observations today contradict that pattern.

1st Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 80,000. For maidens, three-year-olds.

Field: Steady Force (1), Stream It (2), Growth Equity (3), Swiss Army Knife (4), Fightforallegiance (5).​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:10 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

With only five runners, the mile pace picture is compact and tactical. Steady Force (1) for Chad Brown projects as an inside-stalking or pressing type, with Swiss Army Knife (4) and possibly Fightforallegiance (5) providing the primary early speed. Growth Equity (3) looks like the more classic Brown-type two-turn maiden, likely to sit mid-pack and make a sustained run, while Stream It (2) for Linda Rice figures as a tracking type who should be forward but not aggressively sent. On a track that tends to reward forward position, the early quarter and the willingness of anyone to commit to the lead will be decisive.

Key Contenders

Steady Force (1) draws perfectly on the rail for Brown with Flavien Prat, which is ideal given the mild inside and speed lean of this surface at a mile. Brown's Aqueduct maiden-route runners with top riders have historically strong win percentages, and the inside draw gives Steady Force (1) both ground-saving position and the option to either take the lead or sit pocketed behind Swiss Army Knife (4). With no standout established speed figure in this group, a forward, controlled trip from the rail is a major edge.

Growth Equity (3), also for Chad Brown, offers a complementary stable presence and is another obvious win candidate. Brown's second or third start maidens stretching around two turns or staying at a route often take a significant step forward, and Manuel Franco is adept at timing sustained runs at this circuit. While Growth Equity (3) may be a touch pace-compromised if no one pushes Swiss Army Knife (4), his upside and trainer pattern keep him clearly in the top tier.

Secondary Choices

Swiss Army Knife (4) for Todd Pletcher with Kendrick Carmouche looms as the controlling speed on paper. Carmouche is one of the more aggressive riders on this circuit, and from post 4 in a five-horse field, he can break and cross without using quite as much energy as an outside draw would require. If Swiss Army Knife (4) is reasonably fit and brings any step forward second time out or off a layoff, he is dangerous to take them gate-to-wire in a race lacking multiple confirmed speeds.

Stream It (2) for Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano profiles as a stalking/grinding type who may sit two to three lengths behind the lead and look to wear down Swiss Army Knife (4) turning for home. Rice and Lezcano have long formed a productive tandem at Aqueduct, particularly in dirt routes, and Stream It (2) should benefit if the pace becomes more contested than expected.

Longshots

Fightforallegiance (5), the outside runner for Linda Rice with Sahin Civaci up, is the least proven commodity but cannot be ignored in such a short field. The post is fine given the small field size, but he could be hung slightly wide into the first turn if Swiss Army Knife (4) and Steady Force (1) both show speed and keep the rail/inside lanes. As a potential price horse, Fightforallegiance (5) can be used underneath in trifectas, particularly if you anticipate one of the Brown runners failing to fire.

Selections

Win: Steady Force (1)
Place: Growth Equity (3)
Show: Swiss Army Knife (4)

Betting Strategy

The race sets up well for a simple vertical approach. Focus on exactas using Steady Force (1) over Growth Equity (3) and Swiss Army Knife (4), while also protecting with a small exacta box of Steady Force (1) and Growth Equity (3) in case the race turns into a more off-the-pace affair. Trifectas should key Steady Force (1) and Growth Equity (3) on top with Swiss Army Knife (4) and Stream It (2) underneath, and use Fightforallegiance (5) in the third slot as a value enhancer.

2nd Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

CLAIMING. 1 1/8 Miles Dirt. Purse 36,000. For three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races or which have not won a race since March 19, 2025. Claiming price 20,000.

Field: Military Road (1), Good Skate (2), Landauer (3), Apalta (4), Indy Rags (5), Come To Papa (6).

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:38 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

This is a nine-furlong route with several mid-pack/grinding types and no obvious need-the-lead burner, which often yields moderate early fractions followed by a sustained run from the better-conditioned stayers. Military Road (1) for Linda Rice projects to be forward from the rail, perhaps sharing or pressing the lead with Landauer (3), who has enough tactical speed for Ilkay Kantarmaci. Good Skate (2) and Apalta (4) figure to stalk not far off, while Indy Rags (5) and Come To Papa (6) may settle a bit further back, with Come to Papa (6) possessing the best chance to launch a meaningful late rally if the pace becomes more contested than it appears.

Key Contenders

Military Road (1) draws the rail for Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano and fits the condition well as an older gelding with solid route experience. Rice excels in these lower-level Aqueduct claimers, and the rail in a two-turn route gives Military Road (1) the same kind of positional edge that Steady Force (1) has in Race 1. If Lezcano can control the pace from the inside or sit a perfect pocket trip, Military Road (1) is a strong win candidate.

Come To Papa (6) trained by Rob Atras with Kendrick Carmouche brings perhaps the best combination of stamina and tactical finishing kick. Atras has done very well with route claimers at Aqueduct over the last several winters, and Carmouche's aggressive style can still be used here to secure a stalking spot rather than a deep closer's position. From the outside, Come to Papa (6) can sit in the clear and begin grinding forward from the half-mile pole, which plays nicely at 1 1/8 miles when the field lacks sharp speed.

Secondary Choices

Landauer (3) and Indy Rags (5), both from the Kantarmaci barn, are logical secondary contenders. Landauer (3) with Gokhan Kocakaya is more likely to be involved early, potentially sharing the lead with Military Road (1), and can prove stubborn if allowed to relax through modest fractions. Indy Rags (5) with Manuel Franco may sit mid-pack and look for a rail or inside-mid path turning for home, and the trainer-jockey combination has been productive at this level.

Good Skate (2) for Keri Brion with Jaime Rodriguez is another that fits the condition and can sit a stalking trip. At nine furlongs, a horse like Good Skate (2) with some staying qualities can be dangerous if the leaders overdo it early or if the track plays more kindly to off-the-pace runners as the day progresses.

Longshots

Apalta (4) returns from multiple recent vet scratches for illness, which injects uncertainty into his current fitness. The talent is not negligible, but the repeated scratch notes raise reliability concerns, making Apalta (4) more of a longshot or fringe contender. He can be used lightly on deeper tickets in case he returns in better shape than anticipated, but he is difficult to trust as a primary win candidate on paper.

Selections

Win: Military Road (1)
Place: Come To Papa (6)
Show: Landauer (3)

Betting Strategy

Emphasize exactas around Military Road (1) and Come To Papa (6), including an exacta box between those two and a straight exacta Military Road (1) over Landauer (3) and Indy Rags (5). In trifectas, key Military Road (1) and Come to Papa (6) in the first and second slots with Landauer (3), Indy Rags (5), and Good Skate (2) underneath. For multi-race sequences, both Military Road (1) and Come to Papa (6) are strong A-level inclusions.

3rd Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

CLAIMING. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse 38,000. For fillies three-years-old which have never won two races. Claiming price 25,000 (New York-bred 30,000).

Field: Quinns Silent Roar (1), Clarividente (2), Cravings (3), Belloro (4), Power Of Women (5), Cathedral Aisle (6).

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:16 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

At 6 furlongs for lightly raced fillies, you can almost always expect a lively early pace, and the broader meet bias strongly favors speed at this distance. Quinns Silent Roar (1) from the rail with Reylu Gutierrez will likely show early speed, with Belloro (4) and Power Of Women (5) also prominently placed. Cravings (3) for Brad Cox and Cathedral Aisle (6) for Richard Dutrow Jr. both have the potential to sit just off the pace and pounce, which is generally the optimal trip given strong early fractions at this distance.

Key Contenders

Cravings (3) stands out on paper as a strong contender for Cox with Manuel Franco. Cox typically spots his horses aggressively but effectively, and this level for a three-year-old filly in a non-winners of two claimer is exactly the type of placement where he has success. From post 3, Cravings (3) can secure a stalking position behind the inside speed and launch at the quarter pole, taking advantage of a track that rewards early or just-off-the-pace positioning.​

Cathedral Aisle (6) for Dutrow Jr. with Flavien Prat is another key contender, though she comes in with multiple recent vet scratches for injury, which is a concern. If fully sound, Cathedral Aisle (6) is well-drawn outside with a top jockey who can watch the inside pace develop and decide whether to press or track. Dutrow's sprinters with high-quality riders are always dangerous at Aqueduct, and given the likely pace setup, she has a strong chance to figure.

Secondary Choices

Power Of Women (5) with Ricardo Santana Jr. for Dutrow Jr. is a logical secondary contender. From post 5, she can be placed just outside the main inside speed and may either press or sit off if pace pressure intensifies. Santana has good hands at managing speed, and in a sprint with several fillies finding their level, Power of Women (5) offers upside as a lightly raced type.

Belloro (4) for Jeremiah Englehart with Kendrick Carmouche is another pace-adjacent filly who can factor in the exotics. Carmouche may look to apply pressure from the outside of Quinns Silent Roar (1) and Clarividente (2), and if the track continues to favor speed, Belloro (4) can stick around longer than expected at a price.

Longshots

Quinns Silent Roar (1) for James Bentley Begg and Clarividente (2) for Jose Jimenez are both likely to be higher prices. Quinns Silent Roar (1) does benefit from the rail and early foot, and on a speed-skewed track, she cannot be dismissed as an underneath player in trifectas. Clarividente (2) gets a weight break with Dalila Rivera aboard and may try to flash speed from just outside the rail; her best scenario is a rail meltdown where her lighter impost allows her to cling to a minor share.

Selections

Win: Cravings (3)
Place: Cathedral Aisle (6)
Show: Power Of Women (5)

Betting Strategy

This race is a good opportunity for vertical plays keyed around Cravings (3) and Cathedral Aisle (6). Consider exactas Cravings (3) over Cathedral Aisle (6), Power Of Women (5), and Belloro (4), and a smaller exacta box Cravings (3) and Cathedral Aisle (6) to cover a form-cycle leap from the latter. Use trifectas with Cravings (3) and Cathedral Aisle (6) on top, spreading underneath with Power of Women (5), Belloro (4), Quinns Silent Roar (1), and Clarividente (2).

4th Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

CLAIMING. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse 28,000. For fillies and mares four-year-olds and upward. Claiming price 10,000.

Field: She's Complicated (1), Royal Event (2), Open Soul Autism (3), Maggie T (4), Miss Lao (5), My First Love (6), Best Impression (7).

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:49 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

At 6.5 furlongs in an older mare claiming field, the pace should be steady but perhaps not blistering, though there are enough horses with tactical speed to prevent a crawl. She's Complicated (1) has inside position and can show early speed; Royal Event (2) and Open Soul Autism (3) also figure to be close up. Best Impression (7) from the outside with Reylu Gutierrez could be sent to establish position into the first turn, while My First Love (6) off recent illness may adopt a more conservative, mid-pack trip. The 6.5-furlong stats at the meet show a strong tilt to early speed and middle posts, but the small field size offsets some of the post disadvantage for She's Complicated (1).

Key Contenders

Best Impression (7) with Reylu Gutierrez for Gregory Charlerie is a major player from the outside. This post allows Gutierrez to read the inside pace and either press or sit just off, and the recent meet's mid-outside post success at 6.5 furlongs adds confidence that position should not be a hindrance. If she has even moderate early foot, Best Impression (7) can get a clean, momentum-building trip, which is ideal at this distance.​

Open Soul Autism (3) for Kantarmaci with Manuel Franco is another key contender. She draws a near-ideal gate for a pace-pressing trip, and Kantarmaci's claimers tend to run consistently at this level. Franco should be able to place Open Soul Autism (3) either just outside She's Complicated (1) or tracking behind if the pace is hotter than anticipated.

Secondary Choices

Royal Event (2) for Patrick Quick with Omar Hernandez Moreno and She's Complicated (1) for A. Lands Trites with Gokhan Kocakaya are both logical secondary options. She's Complicated (1) benefits from the rail and can either take the lead or sit inside, which is dangerous if the rail is playing well. Royal Event (2) can track inside and look to secure a seam in upper stretch; her effectiveness will largely depend on trip.

My First Love (6) was most recently scratched for illness in a starter optional spot, which raises questions about sharpness, but she has back class and can be used as a secondary contender if the barn reports are positive or she warms up well.

Longshots

Maggie T (4) and Miss Lao (5) look more like fringe players but deserve mention. Maggie T (4) with Ruben Silvera may get a stalking trip in a good spot, but she will need a form reversal or pace collapse to win. Miss Lao (5) receives a significant weight break with seven-pound apprentice Dalila Rivera aboard, which can matter at this distance if the race turns into a late grind; she is usable in the lower rungs of trifectas.

Selections

Win: Best Impression (7)
Place: Open Soul Autism (3)
Show: She's Complicated (1)

Betting Strategy

This race lends itself to modest exactas and trifectas keyed around Best Impression (7) and Open Soul Autism (3). Play exactas Best Impression (7) over Open Soul Autism (3), She's Complicated (1), and Royal Event (2), with a small saver exacta Open Soul Autism (3) over Best Impression (7). For trifectas, key Best Impression (7) on top with Open Soul Autism (3), She's Complicated (1), Royal Event (2), and My First Love (6) in the second and third positions, and sprinkle in Miss Lao (5) in the third slot for price value.

5th Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 26,500. For maidens, fillies and mares three-years-old and upward. Claiming price 12,500 (New York-bred 16,000).

Field: Kef (1), Saratoga Sunset (2), Looking At Annie (3), Houdini's Bride (4), Kat Stormy (5), Tizallmine (6), A. P. Slingshot (7), Tristar Fury (8).

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:22 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

This is a lower-level maiden claimer at a mile, which often features a mix of lightly raced and exposed fillies with moderate early speed. Kef (1) from the rail for Oscar Barrera III is likely to be asked to go forward early, while Saratoga Sunset (2) and Looking At Annie (3) have enough tactical speed to sit close. Houdini's Bride (4) and Kat Stormy (5) both project as mid-pack or stalking types, with A. P. Slingshot (7) and Tristar Fury (8) perhaps coming from a bit further back. At a mile on this surface, being within a few lengths of the lead by the half-mile is usually important.

Key Contenders

Kat Stormy (5) for Bill Mott with Jose Lezcano stands out as the most likely win candidate. Mott typically improves his fillies with added distance and class relief into maiden claiming company, and Kat Stormy (5) fits that profile as a runner who should appreciate the mile configuration and the softer company. The mid-gate draw allows Lezcano to secure a comfortable tracking position without being pinned inside, and Mott's overall reliability with this type at Aqueduct makes Kat Stormy (5) a key horse.

Houdini's Bride (4) for Michelle Nevin with Ruben Silvera is another major player. Silvera is effective at securing forward position without overusing his mounts, and Houdini's Bride (4) is likely to sit within striking range throughout. Nevin's claiming and lower-level maiden program is strong at this circuit, and this filly could benefit from any pace skirmish between the inside trio.

Secondary Choices

A. P. Slingshot (7) for Bruce Levine with Manuel Franco is a logical secondary contender, especially if she has been working forwardly and appears well in the paddock. From post 7, Franco can choose to sit in the clear just off the leaders, which is a strong trip at this distance. Saratoga Sunset (2) for Paul Barrow with Reylu Gutierrez is another that can be in the right place early; her best chance is to sit just off Kef (1) and get first run on the deeper closers.

Longshots

Kef (1) from the rail with Jose Baez, Looking At Annie (3) with Oscar Gomez, Tizallmine (6) with Omar Hernandez Moreno, and Tristar Fury (8) with Jorge Vargas Jr. all project as longer prices. Kef (1) can improve with the rail and inside speed, which is not a trivial advantage at this meet, and she should be considered in the lower rungs of exotics. Looking At Annie (3) and Tizallmine (6) are more exposed, needing significant improvement; Tristar Fury (8) from the outside might benefit from a clean, wide trip if the inside paths endure more traffic.

Selections

Win: Kat Stormy (5)
Place: Houdini's Bride (4)
Show: A. P. Slingshot (7)

Betting Strategy

Use Kat Stormy (5) as the focal point in vertical wagers. Exactas key Kat Stormy (5) over Houdini's Bride (4), A. P. Slingshot (7), and Saratoga Sunset (2), and consider a small exacta box Kat Stormy (5) and Houdini's Bride (4) in case the pace or bias slightly favors the latter's style. Trifectas should use Kat Stormy (5) in the win slot with Houdini's Bride (4), A. P. Slingshot (7), Saratoga Sunset (2), and Kef (1) underneath.

6th Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse 70,000. For maidens, three-year-olds sold or RNA'd for 60,000 or less or claiming 75,000.

Field: Kaz Brio (1), Irish Craic (2), Moon On Fire (3), Waitin'onasunnyday (4), First Blessing (5), Dixie Hex (6), Neigh Baby (7).

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:54 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

At 7 furlongs for three-year-olds with decent purchase prices, expect an honest to strong early pace. Kaz Brio (1) from the rail will need to go forward or risk being shuffled back; Moon On Fire (3) and Waitin'onasunnyday (4) both profile as pace-pressers, and Neigh Baby (7) from the outside can show early speed as well. First Blessing (5) and Dixie Hex (6) may stalk just behind the leading pack, while Irish Craic (2) could be more conservative from the inside. At 7 furlongs, a pressing trip just off the leaders is typically optimal, especially on a meet where early speed has fared well.

Key Contenders

Neigh Baby (7) with Jaime Rodriguez for Jeremiah Englehart looks like a key player from the outside gate. The post allows a clean break and a stalking or pace-pressing trip, and Englehart's record with maiden sprinters at this meet is solid. If Neigh Baby (7) can break sharply and sit outside the pace while maintaining a controlled rhythm, he is strongly positioned to take over in upper stretch.

Dixie Hex (6) for Raymond Handal with Jorge Vargas Jr. is another main contender. Handal has done well with maiden optional-level runners at NYRA tracks, and from post 6, Dixie Hex (6) can sit a near-ideal spot just outside First Blessing (5) and behind the main speed. His best chance comes if the leaders carve out honest early fractions, enabling a strong, sustained run through the lane.

Secondary Choices

Waitin'onasunnyday (4) for Carlos Martin with Ricardo Santana Jr. has enough early foot to be part of the main pace, and Santana's ability to ration speed is a plus at this 7-furlong trip. Kaz Brio (1) with Eric Cancel for Dimitrios Synnefias is a bit of an enigma from the rail; if he breaks cleanly and secures the pocket behind the leaders, he can stay on for a share, but any hesitation at the break risks leaving him buried inside.

First Blessing (5) for Jose Jimenez with Reylu Gutierrez is another possible stalker, and his chances improve if the track is playing a bit fairer and less extreme speed-favoring than some earlier meet days.

Longshots

Irish Craic (2) with Christopher Elliott and Moon On Fire (3) with Ruben Silvera project as the longer prices but could impact the pace shape. Irish Craic (2) might be outpaced early but can clunk up for minor awards if the race collapses late, while Moon On Fire (3) is more likely to be part of the early duel and will need to show new stamina to hold on for a piece.

Selections

Win: Neigh Baby (7)
Place: Dixie Hex (6)
Show: Waitin'onasunnyday (4)

Betting Strategy

Emphasize Neigh Baby (7) as a key in exactas and daily double or pick-3 sequences. Play exactas Neigh Baby (7) over Dixie Hex (6), Waitin'onasunnyday (4), and Kaz Brio (1), with smaller reverse exactas using Dixie Hex (6) and Waitin'onasunnyday (4) over Neigh Baby (7). For trifectas, key Neigh Baby (7) first and second with Dixie Hex (6), Waitin'onasunnyday (4), First Blessing (5), and Kaz Brio (1) filling out the underneath spots.

7th Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 83,000. For fillies and mares four-year-olds and upward which have never won 20,000 other than maiden, claiming, starter or state-bred allowance or which have never won two races or claiming price 50,000.

Field: Brunch With Amy (1), Filly Freedom (2), Delray (3), Inefficiency (4), I'm Buzzy (5), Metfardeh (6).

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 4:25 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

This is the strongest race of the day on paper, and the one-mile trip on dirt should be very tactical. Brunch With Amy (1) for Linda Rice from the rail can show enough early speed to secure an inside stalking spot or even the lead depending on rider intent. Filly Freedom (2) and Inefficiency (4), both for Chad Brown, project as mid-pack to stalking types, with Inefficiency (4) perhaps a bit more forward. Delray (3) for J. Tyler Servis and Metfardeh (6) for Todd Pletcher and Kendrick Carmouche can both be involved early. I'm Buzzy (5) for Rice is an older mare who may trail the field early and try to make one run; how effective that style is will depend heavily on the pace and any evolving bias.

Key Contenders

Inefficiency (4) with Flavien Prat for Chad Brown is the clear key contender. Brown's record with allowance-level dirt fillies and mares at Aqueduct is excellent, and Prat's tactical acumen at a mile gives Inefficiency (4) a strong chance to secure a perfect stalking trip. From post 4, she can follow Metfardeh (6) and Delray (3) into the first turn, sit just off the pace, and make a decisive move around the far turn.

Filly Freedom (2), the stablemate, is another major contender with Manuel Franco aboard. From post 2, she can save ground and sit a bit closer than usual if the pace looks moderate. Brown's pair in here can easily dominate if both run to their potential, and Filly Freedom (2) is a must-use in all serious wagers on this race.

Secondary Choices

Metfardeh (6) for Todd Pletcher with Kendrick Carmouche is a very dangerous secondary contender. Pletcher's dirt route fillies with Carmouche at Aqueduct are often asked to establish forward position, and from the outside post, Metfardeh (6) can either contest the lead or sit just outside the front. If the rail and inside paths become less advantageous as the day wears on, an outside pressing trip for Metfardeh (6) could turn into the winning configuration.

Brunch With Amy (1) for Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano is another that must be respected. She draws the rail, can save ground, and has the tactical speed to be no worse than third early. Rice's dirt mile runners in allowance company have generally been productive, and Brunch With Amy (1) fits well if the pace is moderate and the inside is not a disadvantage.

Longshots

Delray (3) with Frankie Pennington and I'm Buzzy (5) with Sahin Civaci for Rice profile more as price horses. Delray (3) can be forwardly placed but might face pace pressure; she is usable beneath the main trio. I'm Buzzy (5) is an older mare whose best chance is a late rally into a tiring pace; if the bias remains speed-focused, her win chances are modest, but she can still hit the board at a price if the race collapses late.

Selections

Win: Inefficiency (4)
Place: Metfardeh (6)
Show: Filly Freedom (2)

Betting Strategy

The most straightforward approach is to lean heavily on the Brown-Pletcher-Rice trio. Exactas should key Inefficiency (4) over Metfardeh (6), Filly Freedom (2), and Brunch With Amy (1), and consider a smaller exacta Metfardeh (6) over Inefficiency (4) and Filly Freedom (2) if the outside trip looks ideal by this point in the card. For trifectas, use Inefficiency (4) as the primary key, with Metfardeh (6), Filly Freedom (2), Brunch With Amy (1), and Delray (3) filling the minor spots.

8th Race – Aqueduct – Friday, March 20th, 2026

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse 34,000. For maidens, three-years-old and upward. Claiming price 20,000 (New York-bred 25,000).

Field: Army Proud (1), Counter Move (2), Gualillo (3), Into Inspiration (4), Admiral Indy (5), Sports Hero (6), Isola D'oro (7), Sounds Like Fun (8), Nancy's Laugh (9).​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 4:56 PM Eastern.​

Pace Analysis

The scratch watch notes that Army Proud (1) has multiple recent vet scratches for injury, adding uncertainty to his participation and form. Even assuming he runs, the main pace figures to come from the middle posts: Admiral Indy (5) and Sports Hero (6) both have enough tactical speed to be forward, with Isola D'oro (7) and Gualillo (3) potentially pressing from outside and inside respectively. Into Inspiration (4) with a weight break may also show speed. At 7 furlongs, the field will string out a bit down the backstretch, and given the meet's speed tilt at this type of sprint, those within a couple lengths of the lead at the half-mile hold a big advantage.

Key Contenders

Admiral Indy (5) with Gokhan Kocakaya for Chetram Bhigroog looks like a central contender at what may be a fair price, with a morning line in the double digits based on the available entries snippet. From post 5, Admiral Indy (5) can secure a good pressing position just off the inside speed, and with the track favoring early or just-off-the-pace runners at 7 furlongs, he is well-positioned to get first run on the tiring leaders.

Gualillo (3) with Flavien Prat for Fernando Abreu is another major contender. Drawing inside of Admiral Indy (5), Gualillo (3) can save ground and either stalk or press depending on the break. Prat's presence suggests intent, and Abreu's barn does well placing maiden claimers in spots where they can win. The combination of rider, post, and likely trip keeps Gualillo (3) in the top tier.

Secondary Choices

Counter Move (2) for George Weaver with Manuel Franco is a key secondary choice. Weaver's maiden claimers often run improved races second and third time out, and from post 2, Counter Move (2) can ride the rail trip behind the speed. If the rail continues to be at least a mild positive, this should enhance his chances.​

Sports Hero (6) for James Ryerson with Christopher Elliott and Isola D'oro (7) for Lisa Lugovich with Ruben Silvera also warrant respect. Sports Hero (6) may track Admiral Indy (5) and Gualillo (3) and get a chance to make a sustained move. Isola d'Oro (7) has the outside draw with a strong gate rider in Silvera, which can translate into a stalking trip that avoids traffic and takes advantage of any fading inside runners.

Longshots

Army Proud (1) has repeated vet scratches for injury, making him a risky proposition. Even with the rail and a potential speed advantage, his reliability is suspect; if you include him, it is more as a defensive or underneath play. Into Inspiration (4) with apprentice Dalila Rivera receives a substantial weight break and may be forward, but he will need to show more late punch than typical for this level. Sounds Like Fun (8) with Omar Hernandez Moreno and Nancy's Laugh (9) with Heman Harkie appear more like deep longshots; they can fill out the lower rungs of trifectas if there is a meltdown, but they require considerable improvement.

Selections

Win: Gualillo (3)
Place: Admiral Indy (5)
Show: Counter Move (2)

Betting Strategy

Focus on an inside-out core with Gualillo (3), Admiral Indy (5), and Counter Move (2). Play exactas Gualillo (3) over Admiral Indy (5), Counter Move (2), and Sports Hero (6), and use a smaller exacta Admiral Indy (5) over Gualillo (3) and Counter Move (2) as a saver. For trifectas, key Gualillo (3) first and second with Admiral Indy (5), Counter Move (2), Sports Hero (6), Isola D'oro (7), and Army Proud (1) in the remaining slots, weighting more heavily toward the middle posts that fit the bias profile.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Aqueduct's winter-spring jockey colony is deep, and several riders today are well-positioned to maximize the existing track profile. Meet stats show that aggressive, pace-oriented riders tend to outperform at 6 to 7 furlongs on this surface.

Flavien Prat has a particularly strong overall record on NYRA circuits and excels at tactical dirt rides, especially in routes and one-turn miles. His mounts include Steady Force (1) in Race 1, Cathedral Aisle (6) in Race 3, Inefficiency (4) in Race 7, and Gualillo (3) in Race 8, and all four are critical to the card's multi-race sequences. Manuel Franco is another reliable local rider with a strong feel for Aqueduct's pace and bias, and he is aboard Growth Equity (3) in Race 1, Cravings (3) in Race 3, Indy Rags (5) in Race 2, A. P. Slingshot (7) in Race 5, Filly Freedom (2) in Race 7, and Counter Move (2) in Race 8.

Jose Lezcano and Kendrick Carmouche remain key tactical riders. Lezcano's mounts such as Stream It (2) in Race 1, Military Road (1) in Race 2, Kat Stormy (5) in Race 5, and Brunch With Amy (1) in Race 7 are all positioned to take advantage of favorable inside or forward trips. Carmouche's aggressive style suggests that he will look to the front or pressing positions with Swiss Army Knife (4) in Race 1, Come To Papa (6) in Race 2, Belloro (4) in Race 3, Best Impression (7) in Race 4, Moon On Fire (3) in Race 6, and Metfardeh (6) in Race 7, which aligns well with the overall meet trends favoring speed.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Several high-percentage barns are well-represented on this card, and their runners often attract significant betting support. Chad Brown sends out Steady Force (1) and Growth Equity (3) in Race 1 and Filly Freedom (2) and Inefficiency (4) in Race 7, giving him strong representation in both a maiden and the feature allowance. Brown's Aqueduct dirt-route and mile runners typically show excellent conditioning and are well-prepared for strong efforts, particularly in second or third starts and when placed realistically at the allowance level.​

Todd Pletcher has Swiss Army Knife (4) in Race 1 and Metfardeh (6) in Race 7, both of whom are dangerous with quality riders and forward running styles. Linda Rice, another key Aqueduct player, runs Stream It (2) and Fightforallegiance (5) in Race 1, Military Road (1) and Apalta (4) in Race 2, Brunch With Amy (1) and I'm Buzzy (5) in Race 7, and often excels with claimers and allowance types on this circuit. Rob Atras (Come To Papa (6) in Race 2), Jeremiah Englehart (Belloro (4) in Race 3 and Neigh Baby (7) in Race 6), Bill Mott (Kat Stormy (5) in Race 5), and James Ryerson (Sports Hero (6) in Race 8) also bring strong, consistent programs to Aqueduct, and their runners often outperform their morning lines.​

It is also worth noting the repeated vet scratches for illness or injury: Apalta (4) in Race 2, Cathedral Aisle (6) in Race 3, My First Love (6) in Race 4, and Army Proud (1) in Race 8 have all been scratched recently for health issues, making their current condition a critical factor to monitor on track. These horses can win on talent, but they carry more risk from a reliability standpoint.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given the structure of this card, the early races (1 through 3) appear fairly logical and may lend themselves to “single or two-deep” strategies in daily doubles and early pick sequences, while the later races (6 through 8) provide better opportunities for price plays and spreading.

The best potential single candidate on the card, from a balance of likely win chance and expected price, is Inefficiency (4) in Race 7, who should be a short price but has a high win probability given the Brown-Prat combination and ideal pace scenario. Neigh Baby (7) in Race 6 and Kat Stormy (5) in Race 5 are both strong A-level horses, but they may offer slightly better value relative to their fields, making them appealing as primary singles or as two-deep anchors depending on your risk tolerance.

Value situations emerge particularly in Race 8, where Admiral Indy (5) in Race 8 may be overlooked on the board despite a favorable post and pace setup. In Race 2, Come To Papa (6) projects as a strong late-running presence at a fair price against a more obvious inside favorite in Military Road (1). In Race 3, Power Of Women (5) or Belloro (4) could offer mid-range value if the public focuses too heavily on Cravings (3) and Cathedral Aisle (6); both should be included on multi-race tickets.

For multi-race exotics like the late pick 5 (assuming it begins in Race 4) and late pick 4, a structure might lean heavily on Best Impression (7) and Open Soul Autism (3) in Race 4; Kat Stormy (5), Houdini's Bride (4), and A. P. Slingshot (7) in Race 5; Neigh Baby (7) and Dixie Hex (6) in Race 6; Inefficiency (4), Metfardeh (6), and Filly Freedom (2) in Race 7; and Gualillo (3), Admiral Indy (5), Counter Move (2), and Sports Hero (6) in Race 8. This type of structure balances a few strong opinions with enough coverage in the more chaotic maiden and claiming events, while leaning into the meet's mild speed and post preferences.

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