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Saturday’s nine-race card at Belmont at the Big A presents a diverse mix of competitive action headlined by the Grade 3 Athenia Stakes for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The program features a balanced blend of maiden races, allowance conditions, and claiming events across both dirt and turf surfaces. With several New York-bred restricted contests on the card, local connections will have ample opportunities to showcase their stock.
The card opens with a pair of juvenile filly maiden races before transitioning to older horses for the majority of the afternoon. The Athenia Stakes in Race 4 draws a competitive field of 11 fillies and mares, while the day concludes with a trio of claiming races for the distaff division.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the mid-70s and light winds. The main track is expected to remain fast with the turf course listed as firm. Recent rainfall earlier in the week has been absorbed well, and track maintenance crews report optimal racing surfaces for both dirt and grass competition.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1: Maiden Optional Claiming $70,000 – 2YO Fillies, 1 1/16 Miles Turf
This opening turf route for juvenile fillies presents an intriguing mix of first-time starters and lightly raced prospects. The field of nine includes several well-bred fillies making their debuts alongside others seeking their first victory.
Miss Call enters for trainer Kenneth McPeek following a series of works at Saratoga that suggest readiness for this debut effort. The daughter of Silver State shows a balanced pedigree for turf racing and draws an inside post that could prove advantageous in her first start.
Probable Choice brings experience from two previous starts, including a recent effort at Belmont where she showed early speed before tiring. The Oscar Barrera trainee has demonstrated ability but may need to find improvement to compete with this group.
Salt Princess represents David Donk and arrives with three previous starts, including a recent third-place finish. Her form suggests she belongs at this level, and the addition of blinkers could provide the needed focus for improvement.
The pace scenario appears moderate with several horses likely to press early, setting up potential late closers. Consider the debut horses with strong work patterns, as September debuts can often be effective for well-prepared juveniles.
The race features 9 entries with the following key contenders:
Top Contenders
#1 MISS CALL (Morning Line: 5-1)
- Jockey: Luis Rivera Jr.
- Trainer: Kenneth McPeek
- Breeding: Silver State (sire) x Lady Laura (dam)
- Analysis: McPeek has solid success with 2YO turf debuts. This filly shows some early training promise and Rivera Jr. is a capable pilot.
**#2ROBABLE CHOICE (Morning Line: 15-1)
- Jockey: Ruben Silvera
- Trainer: Oscar Barrera III
- Breeding: Improbable (sire) x Madita (dam)
- Analysis: Longer shot but Improbable offspring can show early speed. Barrera has been having a solid meet.
#3 SALT PRINCESS (Morning Line: 6-1)
- Jockey: Johnny Velazquez
- Trainer: David Donk
- Breeding: Cairo Prince (sire) x Trading Paint (dam)
- Analysis: Strong contender – Velazquez rarely takes poor mounts and Cairo Prince gets runners. The breeding suggests early speed ability.
#4 KAREY (Morning Line: 10-1)
- Jockey: Joel Rosario
- Trainer: Carlos Martin
- Breeding: Beau Liam (sire) x Brand New Day (dam)
- Analysis: Rosario’s presence is notable. This filly may need the race experience but could show improvement.
**#5 MY BLUEINE (Morning Line: 3.50-1) – MORNING LINE FAVORITE
- Jockey: Manuel Franco
- Trainer: George Weaver
- Breeding: Blue Point (sire) x Samdaniya (dam)
- Analysis: Top choice – Franco and Weaver are both having excellent meets. Blue Point is an excellent turf sire and this breeding pattern suggests turf ability.
Key Handicapping Factors
Track Conditions
- Turf Course: Firm conditions expected
- Rail Position: Set at 9 feet out
- Weather: No rain expected
Trainer Analysis
- George Weaver (MY BLUE LINE): Excellent with 2YO turf debuts, 20%+ win rate
- Kenneth McPeek (MISS CALL): Strong with first-time turfers
- David Donk (SALT PRINCESS): Solid conditioner, patient with young horses
Jockey Analysis
- Manuel Franco (MY BLUE LINE): Leading rider at the meet
- Johnny Velazquez (SALT PRINCESS): Hall of Fame jockey, excellent tactical rider
- Joel Rosario (KAREY): Top-tier jockey, strong with debuts
Betting Strategy
Win Bet
MY BLUE LINE (#5) – Best combination of breeding, connections, and morning line value
Exacta Plays
- 5-3 (My Blue Line over Salt Princess)
- 3-5 (Salt Princess over My Blue Line)
- 5-1 (My Blue Line over Miss Call)
Trifecta
5-3-1 with 1-4 in third position
Final Recommendation
MY BLUE LINE (#5) appears to be the standout choice based on the superior trainer/jockey combination of Weaver and Franco, plus the excellent turf breeding of Blue Point. The morning line of 3.50-1 offers reasonable value.
SALT PRINCESS (#3) is the primary alternative with Velazquez aboard and solid Cairo Prince breeding that suggests early tactical speed.
This appears to be a competitive maiden race where breeding and connections will be key factors in determining the outcome.
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $35,000 – 3YO+, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
This maiden claiming event for older horses features a field of six seeking their first victory. The claiming tag often produces competitive racing among similarly classed horses.
Remember the Chief brings the most experience with eight previous starts and recent form suggesting improvement. The Patrick Quick trainee has shown consistency and appears ready to graduate at this level.
Nice Try Riley enters for Lisa Bartkowski with three starts under his belt and recent racing at Saratoga. His form suggests he belongs in this company, though he’ll need to find additional improvement.
Grey Ace represents Mitchell Friedman and brings five previous starts with several competitive efforts. His recent form at this level suggests he could be ready to break through.
The pace appears honest with several horses likely to show early speed in this sprint distance. Consider horses showing recent improvement in their work patterns and race efforts.
Race 4: Athenia Stakes (Grade 3) $150,000 – Fillies/Mares 3YO+, 1 1/8 Miles Turf
The Athenia Stakes features 11 fillies and mares competing at 1 1/8 miles on the turf course. This non-graded stakes race has drawn a competitive field with several horses showing recent form that suggests they can compete at this level.
Top Contenders
WHISKEY DECISION (Post 4) – 2-1 Morning Line Favorite
Trainer: Chad C. Brown | Jockey: Flavien Prat
The morning line favorite brings impressive credentials from trainer Chad Brown, who excels with turf runners. This 2-year-old filly by Into Mischief has shown tactical speed and the ability to rate behind pace. Recent works suggest she’s ready for this step up in class. Brown’s 24% strike rate with turf runners and Prat’s excellent turf riding make this a formidable combination.
MOONAGE DAYDREAM (Post 5) – 2.50-1
Trainer: Jorge R. Abreu | Jockey: Joel Rosario
This Candy Ride filly has been running consistently in allowance company and appears ready for stakes competition. Her recent form shows improvement, and the switch to Joel Rosario is a positive sign. The breeding suggests she should handle the distance well.
MIDTOWN LIGHTS (Post 10) – 2.50-1
Trainer: Ilkay Kantarmaci | Jockey: Manuel Franco
A consistent performer who has been knocking on the door in similar company. Recent racing pattern shows she’s maintaining form, and Franco’s 15% win rate provides confidence. The post position gives her tactical options.
AMANDA’S FOLLY (Post 9) – 3.50-1
Trainer: Linda Rice | Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
This Mendelssohn filly from the Linda Rice barn has shown steady improvement. Rice’s training style suits turf horses well, and Carmouche knows this filly’s racing patterns. Recent form indicates she’s peaking at the right time.
Mid-Tier Contenders
AWESOME CZECH (Post 8) – 4-1
Recent winner who has found her best form. The class relief from her last start could be key, and she’s proven she can win at this level.
SPINNING COLORS (Post 3) – 4-1
Stakes-placed mare with tactical speed. Velazquez aboard adds confidence, though the post position may require some maneuvering early.
JUST MUSIC (Post 11) – 3-1
Another Linda Rice trainee with solid recent form. The outside post is challenging, but this filly has shown she can overcome traffic issues.
Longshots
EDICT (Post 1) – 8-1
Experienced stakes horse who could benefit from the rail position if the pace develops favorably.
LADY FIREFOOT (Post 2) – 20-1
Has shown flashes but needs significant improvement to compete at this level.
Race Analysis & Strategy
Pace Scenario: Expect a moderate pace with WHISKEY DECISION and SPINNING COLORS likely to press early. The wide-open nature of this field suggests multiple horses will have chances to impact the outcome.
Key Factors:
- Turf course condition will favor horses with proven grass form
- The 1 1/8-mile distance rewards horses with tactical speed and stamina
- Post positions 4-8 appear most advantageous for early positioning
Wagering Recommendations
Win: WHISKEY DECISION (2-1) – Best combination of class, connections, and current form
Exacta: 4-5 and 4-10 – WHISKEY DECISION over MOONAGE DAYDREAM and MIDTOWN LIGHTS
Trifecta: 4/5,9,10/1,3,8,11 – Using the favorite on top with multiple underneath options
Superfecta: 4/5,9,10/1,3,8,11/ALL – Structured to capture value if the favorite wins
This competitive stakes race offers multiple wagering angles, with the favorite appearing solid but facing legitimate challenges from several improving fillies and mares.
Race 5: Allowance $81,000 (NY-Bred) – 3YO+, 6 Furlongs Turf
Top Contenders Analysis
**#1 LAUNCH CONTROL (1 Favorite)
- Trainer: Keri Brion | Jockey: Flavien Prat
- Age/Sex: 2-year-old gelding
- Last Race: Won by 4.5 lengths at Fair Grounds on 9/6/25
- Form: 3-1-1-1 record with $67,250 in earnings
- Key Points:
- Coming off impressive maiden win
- Proven on turf with tactical speed
- Top jockey/trainer combination
- Strengths: Sharp recent form, class edge
- Concerns: Moving up significantly in class
**#4 ALAN TURING (4 Second Choice)
- Trainer: Robert P. Klesaris | Jockey: Jose Lezcano
- Age/Sex: 2-year-old gelding
- Last Race: 2nd at Belmont on 8/16/25
- Form: 3-0-1-1 record, consistent performer
- Key Points:
- Improving with each start
- Good tactical speed and closing kick
- Solid turf breeding and form
- Strengths: Consistent, improving pattern
- Concerns: Yet to win a race
**#13ING PUCK (4-1)
- Trainer: Charlton Baker | Jockey: Joel Rosario
- Age/Sex: 2-year-old colt
- Last Race: 6th at Fair Grounds on 8/28/25
- Form: Mixed recent performances
- Key Points:
- Veteran jockey aboard
- Has shown ability in limited starts
- Strengths: Quality pilot, some early speed
- Concerns: Inconsistent recent form
**#3 NOT FOR HIRE (5-
- Trainer: George Weaver | Jockey: John Velazquez
- Age/Sex: 2-year-old gelding
- Last Race: 10th at Saratoga on 9/8/25
- Form: 4-1-1-0 record with $70,100 earnings
- Key Points:
- Hall of Fame jockey aboard
- Previous winner, proven ability
- Strengths: Experience, top connections
- Concerns: Poor last race effort
Race Dynamics & Strategy
Pace Scenario: Moderate pace expected with several horses showing early speed including Launch Control, Alan Turing, and King Puck.
Track Conditions: Turf course should be firm, favoring horses with tactical speed and finishing kick.
Key Factors:
- Class Relief: Many horses dropping in class or facing easier conditions
- Turf Experience: Several first-time turf runners could surprise
- Breeding: New York-bred restrictions may level the playing field
Betting Analysis
Win Contenders:
- Launch Control (3-1) – Deserved favorite with sharp form
- Alan Turing (4-1) – Consistent, improving
- King Puck (4-1) – Veteran jockey angle
Value Plays:
- #6 Stormy Birthday (8-1) – Lightly raced, room for improvement
- #12 Skyler’s Starship (6-1) – Decent breeding, competitive trainer
Longshots to Consider:
- #10 Pandemic Hero (8-1) – Has shown flashes of ability
- #9 Price Is Truth (12-1) – Could benefit from pace scenario
Recommendation
Win: Launch Control – Despite the class jump, the favorite shows the best recent form and has proven turf ability.
Exotic Play: Key Launch Control on top with Alan Turing, King Puck, and Stormy Birthday underneath in exactas and trifectas.
The race sets up well for Launch Control if they can handle the class increase, but the competitive nature of allowance company and the large field create opportunities for value plays underneath.
Race 6: Maiden Optional Claiming $70,000 – 2YO Colts, 6 Furlongs Dirt
This dirt sprint for juvenile colts presents a field of six seeking their first victory. The optional claiming structure often attracts quality horses.
Capanaparo enters for Richard Dutrow with one previous start showing promise. The son of Caracaro brings good breeding for dirt racing and could improve significantly in his second start.
State of Attack makes his debut for Brittany Russell after showing promise in morning training. First-time starters in September often benefit from additional preparation time.
The small field and sprint distance suggest an honest pace scenario. Consider juveniles showing strong work patterns leading up to their debuts, as well as those making second starts with improvement expected.
Race 7: Claiming $45,000 (Fillies/Mares) – 3YO+, 1 3/16 Miles Turf
This claiming route on turf for fillies and mares presents competitive racing among similarly classed horses. The longer distance should reward horses with proven stamina.
Lotus Petal enters with recent form suggesting competitiveness at this claiming level. Her distance preferences align well with this route configuration.
Proud Mary brings experience in stakes company and could find this claiming level to her liking. Her recent efforts suggest she belongs in this competitive field.
Queen Atlas represents William Morey with recent victory suggesting current form. Her tactical ability could prove effective in this route event.
The longer distance should produce tactical racing with pace developing gradually. Consider fillies with proven stamina who can sustain their efforts through the final stages.
Race 8: Claiming $58,000 (Fillies/Mares) – 3YO+, 7 Furlongs Dirt
This claiming sprint on dirt features seven fillies and mares competing at a moderate claiming level. The competitive nature should produce quality racing.
I’m Buzzy enters with recent form suggesting readiness for this claiming level. Her speed figures indicate competitiveness in this company.
Melle Mel brings recent victory suggesting current form. The Orlando Noda trainee appears well-placed in this competitive claiming event.
The claiming level and sprint distance should produce honest racing with several horses showing early speed. Consider fillies demonstrating recent improvement in their efforts and work patterns.
Race 9: Claiming $38,000 (Fillies/Mares) – 3YO+, 1 Mile Dirt
The finale presents a claiming route on dirt for fillies and mares at a lower claiming level. This often produces competitive racing among evenly matched horses.
Pens Street enters for Linda Rice with recent form showing improvement. Her tactical ability and proven stamina make her a logical contender in this route event.
Spring Magic brings experience at this claiming level with recent efforts suggesting competitiveness. Her form indicates she belongs in this company.
The route distance should reward horses with proven stamina who can sustain their efforts throughout the mile journey. Consider fillies showing recent improvement in longer distance events.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Manuel Franco continues his productive meet with multiple mounts throughout the card including notable assignments in the feature Athenia Stakes. His tactical awareness and ability to position horses effectively make him a consistently reliable choice.
Joel Rosario brings his wealth of experience to several key mounts including horses in both maiden and allowance company. His patient style often proves effective in route events.
Flavien Prat arrives with mounts in multiple stakes-quality events and brings his proven ability in graded company. His tactical skills and timing make him formidable in any competitive situation.
The jockey colony shows strong depth throughout the card with experienced riders handling most assignments, suggesting competitive racing across all events.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Chad Brown’s presence in the Athenia Stakes with Whiskey Decision brings Grade 1 quality to the feature event. His preparation methods and attention to detail make any Brown-trained horse a serious contender.
Linda Rice sends out multiple starters throughout the card and continues to demonstrate her ability with different types of horses. Her local knowledge and training methods produce consistent results.
George Weaver fields several entries across different race types and surfaces. His versatility in preparing horses for various conditions makes his runners consistently competitive.
The trainer representation shows good balance between established professionals and emerging talents, suggesting quality preparation across the program.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Athenia Stakes provides the day’s most attractive betting opportunity with its competitive field and graded stakes purse. Consider multiple ticket approaches including exactas and trifectas given the field depth.
The large field in Race 5 creates excellent wagering opportunities with potential value plays throughout the allowance sprint. The 15-horse field suggests longshot possibilities in the lower portion of exotic wagers.
The maiden races present opportunities for finding value with first-time starters who may be overlooked in the betting despite strong preparation. September debuts often produce surprising results.
Consider horizontal wagers connecting the claiming races late in the card, as these events often produce competitive racing among evenly matched horses.
Early Pick 4 and Pick 5 wagers offer potential value given the competitive nature of the opening races and the presence of logical favorites mixed with potential upsets.
Daily Double and Multi-Race Wager Considerations
The Pick 4 beginning with Race 6 presents an attractive betting opportunity connecting the juvenile maiden through the claiming finale. The combination of small fields and competitive events could produce manageable ticket costs with substantial payoffs.
Late Pick 4 starting with the Athenia Stakes offers premium betting action through the card’s conclusion. The graded stakes event provides a solid foundation for building tickets through the remaining claiming events.
Consider rolling Pick 3 wagers throughout the afternoon, particularly connecting the maiden races early and the claiming events late in the program.
Race-by-Race Morning Line Favorites
Race 1 – Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000 (1 1/16 Miles Turf, 2YO Fillies)
- Morning Line Favorite: #1 MISS CALL (5-1)
- Other key contenders: #2 PROBABLE CHOICE (15-1), #3 SALT PRINCESS (6-1)
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight (6F Turf, 2YO Fillies)
- Morning Line Favorite: #9 HOT CURRENCY (8-5)
- Other key contenders: #1 TICKET TO RIDE (2-1), #3 FANCY LIGHTS (3-1)
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming $20,000 (6.5F Dirt, 3+ Year Olds)
- Morning Line Favorite: #4 LEADING ROLE (2-1)
- Other key contenders: #6 FREEDOM MAKER (5-2), #5 SEEKER’S HOPE (3-1)
Race 4 – Athenia Stakes $150,000 (1 1/8 Miles Turf, F&M 3+)
- Morning Line Favorite: #4 WHISKEY DECISION (2-1)
- Other key contenders: #5 MOONAGE DAYDREAM (5-2), #11 JUST MUSIC (3-1)
Race 5 – Allowance $81,000 (6F Turf, 3+ Year Olds)
- Morning Line Favorite: #1 LAUNCH CONTROL (3-1)
- Other key contenders: #3 NOT FOR HIRE (5-1), #13 KING PUCK (4-1)
Race 6 – Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000 (6F Dirt, 2 Year Olds)
- Morning Line Favorite: #1 CAPANAPARO (3-1)
- Other key contenders: #5 STATE OF ATTACK (5-1), #6 DANCING BULLET (6-1)
Race 7 – Claiming $35,000 (1 1/8 Miles Turf)
- Morning Line Favorite: #10 SPIRIT OF ESTHER (7-2)
- Other key contenders: #1 LOTUS PETAL (4-1), #5 PROUD MARY (6-1)
Race 8 – Claiming $50,000 (1 Mile Dirt)
- Morning Line Favorite: #2 MELLE MEL (7-2)
- Other key contenders: #1 I’M BUZZY (5-2), #3 MOON GATE (4-1)
Race 9 – Claiming $16,000 (1 Mile Dirt, F&M 3+)
- Morning Line Favorite: #1 PENS STREET (4-1)
- Other key contenders: #7 SPEAK SOFTLY (9-2), #2 SPRING MAGIC (5-1)
Consensus Recommendations
Based on the morning line odds and race analysis, here are the top consensus picks for each race:
- Race 1: MISS CALL (#1)
- Race 2: HOT CURRENCY (#9)
- Race 3: LEADING ROLE (#4)
- Race 4: WHISKEY DECISION (#4)
- Race 5: LAUNCH CONTROL (#1)
- Race 6: CAPANAPARO (#1)
- Race 7: SPIRIT OF ESTHER (#10)
- Race 8: MELLE MEL (#2)
- Race 9: PENS STREET (#1)
