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Thursday’s card at Belmont at the Big A features steeplechase racing highlighted by the Grade 1 Lonesome Glory Handicap Hurdle, a prestigious 2½-mile turf event scheduled for 1:10 PM ET. The fall meet at Aqueduct continues to showcase high-quality racing while Belmont Park undergoes renovation, with this steeplechase representing one of the premier events of the current racing season.
Weather Forecast and Track Conditions
The weather forecast calls for sprinkles and cloudy conditions with a high temperature around 80°F and an overnight low of 67°F. There is a 43% chance of precipitation with light amounts expected around 0.05 inches. Current track conditions are listed as fast for dirt and firm for turf surfaces.
The mild temperatures and firm turf conditions should provide ideal racing conditions for the steeplechase event, with any light precipitation unlikely to significantly impact the racing surface.
Detailed Analysis for Race 1: Lonesome Glory Handicap Hurdle (Grade 1)
Race Overview
Race 1 at Belmont at the Big A is the featured Lonesome Glory Handicap Hurdle, a Grade 1 steeplechase event worth $150,000 guaranteed with $94,500 going to the winner. The race covers 2 miles and 4 furlongs over hurdles on the turf course, drawing a competitive field of nine horses aged four and up. Post time is scheduled for 6:10 PM ET, making this the marquee event of Thursday’s racing card.
Key Contenders Analysis
Zarak the Brave (FR) – Morning Line Favorite 3-1
The six-year-old French-bred gelding enters as the deserved favorite carrying top weight of 158 pounds with Evan Dwan aboard. His recent form shows consistent Grade 1 placings, including a second-place finish at Saratoga on August 27th, beaten just three-quarters of a length by Jimmy P in the Grade 1 event. Prior to that, he finished third in July’s Grade 1 at Saratoga, demonstrating his ability to compete at the highest level of steeplechase competition. The partnership with jockey Evan Dwan has proven effective, and despite the weight assignment, this horse possesses the class and tactical speed necessary for victory.
Hidden Path – Strong Value at 7-2
This five-year-old gelding trained by Richard J. Hendriks represents excellent value with Conor Tierney in the saddle. Hidden Path’s recent campaign shows steady improvement, highlighted by a victory at Saratoga on July 30th where he won by 1¾ lengths. Most importantly, he finished a strong third in the Grade 1 event at Saratoga on August 27th, beaten just 4¾ lengths while carrying 148 pounds. This recent Grade 1 form combined with favorable odds positioning makes him a prime contender for the win and an excellent value play.
Evie’s Prince – Seasoned Veteran at 9-2
The eight-year-old gelding brings extensive steeplechase experience to this Grade 1 assignment with Bernard Dalton riding. His recent form includes a solid second-place finish in the Grade 1 event at Saratoga on June 4th, where he was beaten just three-quarters of a length by Proven Innocent. While his last start at Far Hills in August resulted in a fourth-place finish, his proven ability at the Grade 1 level and tactical versatility make him a legitimate threat at attractive odds.
Secondary Choices Analysis
Welshman – Improving Form at 9-2
Trainer Jack Fisher’s seven-year-old gelding scored an impressive victory at Far Hills on August 30th, winning by 5½ lengths with Graham Watters aboard. This dominant performance demonstrates current fitness and suggests the horse is peaking at the right time. The 146-pound weight assignment provides a slight advantage, and Watters leads the steeplechase jockey standings with strong tactical awareness.
Swore – Fresh and Fit at 8-1
Keri Brion’s six-year-old gelding returned to winning form with a victory at Colonial Downs on August 21st, defeating Gratia Prince by 2¼ lengths. This recent success after a layoff indicates the horse is training well and ready for a step up in class. Stephen Mulqueen’s riding provides tactical advantages, and the 148-pound assignment appears manageable.
Longshots to Consider
Travesuras – Potential Improver at 10-1
Gerard Galligan rides this six-year-old gelding who finished second at Saratoga in August in novice hurdle company. The step up to handicap conditions could suit his running style, and the light weight assignment of 142 pounds provides a significant advantage. The 10-1 odds offer substantial value if he can improve on his recent form.
Sweet Will (IRE) – European Experience at 10-1
This eight-year-old Irish-bred brings proven European steeplechase experience with Freddie Procter riding. While recent form has been inconsistent, including a fourth-place finish in October at Gowran Park, his breeding and background suggest capability at this level. The minimum weight of 142 pounds could help his chances at attractive odds.
Pace Analysis
Steeplechase racing typically produces more tactical scenarios than sustained pace pressure due to the jumping elements and longer distance. With nine runners over 2 miles and 4 furlongs, the early pace should develop naturally without excessive pressure. Zarak the Brave possesses tactical speed and can position effectively, while Hidden Path and Welshman both show versatility in their running styles. The jumping obstacles will create natural breaks in momentum, favoring horses with good jumping technique and tactical awareness.
Key Angles to Consider
The European connections of Zarak the Brave (FR) and Sweet Will (IRE) bring proven steeplechase breeding and experience to American conditions. The weight spread ranges from 142 to 158 pounds, with the handicapper showing respect for Zarak the Brave’s ability through the top assignment.
Trainer Thomas Garner’s success with Zarak the Brave in Grade 1 competition indicates effective preparation methods, while the improving form cycle of Hidden Path under Richard Hendriks’ training suggests continued development.
The jockey factor plays significantly in steeplechase racing, with Evan Dwan, Conor Tierney, and Graham Watters all possessing extensive jumping experience and tactical knowledge crucial for success over hurdles.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Betting: Zarak the Brave (FR) at 3-1 offers reasonable value given his consistent Grade 1 form and proven partnership with Evan Dwan. Hidden Path at 7-2 provides excellent value considering his recent improvement and Grade 1 placing.
Place Betting: Hidden Path represents the best value play in the place pool at 7-2 odds, while Welshman at 9-2 offers strong potential based on his recent Far Hills victory.
Exacta Combinations: Key plays include 3-7 (Zarak the Brave over Hidden Path), 7-3 (Hidden Path over Zarak the Brave), and 8-3, 8-7 (Welshman combinations) for broader coverage.
Trifecta Strategy: Use Zarak the Brave and Hidden Path on top with Welshman, Evie’s Prince, and Travesuras filling out the combinations. The 3-7-8, 7-3-5, and 3-7-9 combinations provide solid coverage of likely scenarios.
Superfecta Value: Include Travesuras and Sweet Will as potential fourth-place finishers to complete exotic wagers at attractive payouts.
Detailed Analysis for Race 4: Allowance
Race Overview
Race 4 at Belmont at the Big A is an allowance event for three-year-olds and up, contested at 6 furlongs on the turf course with a purse of $88,000. Post time is scheduled for 2:45 PM ET, featuring a competitive field of 10 horses with several proven turf performers. The race conditions favor horses that have demonstrated class at the allowance level while providing opportunities for improvement from recent efforts.
Key Contenders Analysis
Innate (IRE) – Morning Line Favorite 7/5
The four-year-old Irish-bred gelding enters as the deserved favorite with Junior Alvarado aboard, carrying 123 pounds. His recent form shows exceptional consistency with three wins from four career starts, including victories in his last two turf sprints at Saratoga. Most recently, he finished second in a 5½-furlong turf event at Saratoga on August 31st, demonstrating his ability to compete effectively at this level. Prior to that, he scored an impressive victory in a similar turf sprint on August 17th, winning by comfortable margins. His “Fastest Stalker” running style positions him perfectly for the tactical demands of turf sprint racing, and the Alvarado booking provides additional confidence.
Bosun – Strong Second Choice 9/5
Trainer Joe Sharp’s three-year-old colt represents excellent value at 9/5 odds with Kendrick Carmouche riding. His recent campaign shows remarkable improvement, highlighted by back-to-back victories in turf sprints at Saratoga. He won his last start on August 24th in a 5½-furlong turf event, demonstrating tactical speed and strong finishing ability. Prior to that victory, he scored another turf sprint win on August 10th, establishing himself as a consistent performer at this level. His “Fast Stalker” running style complements the expected pace scenario, and the partnership with Carmouche provides tactical advantages.
Zippy Mark – Proven Winner 2/1
Kenneth McPeek’s three-year-old gelding brings impressive credentials with Christopher Elliott aboard, carrying 123 pounds. His record shows three wins from six career starts, including a victory in his most recent effort on August 31st in a 6½-furlong dirt sprint at Saratoga. While his last start was on dirt, his versatility across surfaces and proven ability at sprint distances make him a legitimate threat. His “Fastest Stalker” classification suggests he can position effectively in turf sprint scenarios, and the 2/1 odds reflect his consistent winning ability.
Secondary Choices Analysis
V Cruizer – Intriguing Newcomer 5/2
Linda Rice’s three-year-old colt presents fascinating value with Kendrick Carmouche riding, carrying just 118 pounds. This lightly raced horse boasts a perfect record with one win from one start, scoring impressively in a 6-furlong dirt event at Saratoga. While his lone start came on dirt rather than turf, his breeding and connections suggest turf capability, and the weight advantage of 118 pounds provides significant benefit. The Rice-Carmouche combination has shown success throughout the current meet, adding confidence to this intriguing debut effort on grass.
Flat To Da Mat – Class Dropper 6/1
Michael Maker’s three-year-old colt offers value at 6/1 odds with Flavien Prat aboard, carrying 118 pounds. His recent form includes solid efforts in higher-level competition, most recently finishing third in a 6-furlong turf event at Kentucky Downs. His career earnings of $353,900 indicate consistent success at various levels, and the class relief to allowance conditions could provide the edge needed for victory. Prat’s booking represents a significant positive angle, as the Eclipse Award-winning jockey typically receives mounts with legitimate winning chances.
Feltrinelli – Early Pace Factor 6/1
George Weaver trains this three-year-old gelding who carries 121 pounds with Manuel Franco riding. His “Slowest Leader” running style suggests he could secure uncontested early fractions if other speed horses fail to engage. Recent form includes a fourth-place finish in a 5½-furlong turf event at Monmouth Park, indicating competitiveness at this level. The Franco booking provides tactical expertise, and his ability to control early pace scenarios could prove decisive in a tactical turf sprint.
Longshots to Consider
Sesame Seed Bagel – Distance Question 10/1
This four-year-old horse trained by Amelia Green carries 123 pounds with Dylan Davis aboard. Recent efforts show mixed results over longer distances, but the cutback to 6 furlongs could suit his tactical speed. His “Fast Stalker” running style positions him favorably if the pace develops correctly, and the 10/1 odds offer substantial value for exotic wagering combinations.
Marcus Gift – Closing Kick 15/1
The four-year-old gelding trained by Adrianne DeVaux possesses a “Fast Closer” running style that could prove effective if the pace becomes tactical. While recent form has been inconsistent, his ability to finish strongly provides upset potential at attractive odds, particularly in multi-race exotic wagers.
Pace Analysis
The 6-furlong turf distance typically produces moderate early fractions with tactical positioning crucial for success. Feltrinelli’s “Slowest Leader” classification suggests he may secure uncontested early fractions, potentially setting up the race for stalkers and closers. The presence of multiple “Fast Stalker” types including Innate (IRE), Bosun, and Zippy Mark should create competitive positioning through the early stages without excessive pace pressure.
Turf sprint racing at Belmont at the Big A has historically favored horses positioned within striking distance of the early pace, making the stalking types particularly attractive in this field composition. The presence of proven closers like Flat To Da Mat and Marcus Gift provides balance to exotic wagering combinations if the pace becomes too tactical.
Key Angles to Consider
The jockey factor plays significantly in this competitive allowance event. Junior Alvarado’s booking on Innate (IRE) represents the strongest angle, as his tactical awareness in turf racing provides advantages in positioning and timing. Similarly, Flavien Prat’s mount on Flat To Da Mat suggests trainer confidence despite the horse’s recent form cycle.
The trainer patterns show Joe Sharp’s success with turf horses at this level, particularly evident in Bosun’s recent winning streak. Kenneth McPeek’s Zippy Mark brings proven class from higher levels, while Linda Rice’s V Cruizer represents an intriguing unknown quantity making his turf debut.
Weight considerations favor V Cruizer and Flat To Da Mat at 118 pounds, providing significant advantages over horses carrying 123 pounds. The five-pound spread could prove decisive in a competitive sprint scenario.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Betting: Innate (IRE) at 7/5 offers reasonable value given his consistent turf form and proven ability at this level. Bosun at 9/5 provides excellent value considering his recent winning streak and tactical advantages.
Place Betting: Bosun represents the best value play in the place pool at 9/5 odds, while V Cruizer at 5/2 offers strong potential based on his perfect record and weight advantage.
Exacta Combinations: Key plays include 4-8 (Innate over Bosun), 8-4 (Bosun over Innate), and 10-4, 10-8 (V Cruizer combinations) for broader coverage of likely scenarios.
Trifecta Strategy: Use Innate (IRE) and Bosun on top with Zippy Mark, V Cruizer, and Flat To Da Mat filling out combinations. The 4-8-9, 8-4-10, and 4-8-7 trifectas provide solid coverage of probable finishing orders.
Superfecta Value: Include Sesame Seed Bagel and Marcus Gift as potential fourth-place finishers to complete exotic wagers at attractive payouts, particularly the 4-8-10-5 and 8-4-7-6 combinations for maximum value.
Detailed Analysis for Race 5: Maiden Special Weight
Race Overview
Race 5 at Belmont at the Big A is a maiden special weight event for two-year-old fillies contested at 1 1/16 miles on the turf course with a purse of $85,000. Post time is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET, featuring a competitive field of 13 horses with a strong mix of first-time starters and fillies with limited racing experience. The race presents intriguing opportunities with several high-profile trainer and jockey combinations entering promising prospects.
Key Contenders Analysis
Fraudster – Experienced Favorite 2/1
Todd Pletcher’s two-year-old filly enters as the deserved favorite with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard. With 12 career starts producing 2 wins, 3 seconds, and 6 thirds for earnings of $69,698, she brings significantly more experience than most rivals. Her recent form includes a third-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile dirt race at Saratoga on September 7th, followed by a fifth-place effort in a 6-furlong dirt sprint. Her “Fast Stalker” running style should position her effectively in this turf route, and the Pletcher-Velazquez combination provides proven expertise in developing young horses. The surface switch from dirt to turf represents the primary question mark, but her tactical speed and proven ability at the distance make her the horse to beat.
Jadorlinija – Intriguing Newcomer 5/2
Miguel Clement’s first-time starter represents exceptional value with Joel Rosario in the saddle. This unraced filly receives strong market support at 5/2 odds, suggesting significant ability in training. Clement’s impressive 29% win rate and 62% in-the-money percentage with his runners provides strong statistical backing. Rosario’s booking adds considerable confidence, as the veteran jockey typically receives mounts with legitimate winning chances. The combination of trainer expertise with first-time starters and proven jockey skill makes this filly a prime threat despite her inexperience.
Isadora Duncan (IRE) – Elite Connections 7/2
Chad Brown’s Irish-bred filly brings impeccable breeding credentials with Eclipse Award winner Flavien Prat riding. As a first-time starter for connections with a 23% win rate and 54% in-the-money percentage, this filly commands serious respect. The Brown-Prat combination has proven exceptionally effective with young turf horses, and Irish breeding often translates well to American grass racing. Prat’s 23% win rate and 61% in-the-money statistics provide additional confidence. The 7/2 odds offer reasonable value for a filly with elite connections making her debut.
Secondary Choices Analysis
Two Bits – Proven Form 9/2
Amelia Green’s two-year-old filly brings racing experience with two starts producing no wins but solid efforts. Her recent form includes a fourth-place finish in a 5½-furlong turf event at Saratoga and a fifth in a 5½-furlong dirt sprint. Her “Fastest Stalker” running style positions her well for the tactical demands of turf routing, and trainer Green’s 25% win rate and 50% in-the-money percentage with limited starters suggests effective handling. The step up in distance to 1 1/16 miles represents a positive move based on her breeding and running style.
Belle Of Georgia (IRE) – European Breeding 6/1
Miguel Clement’s Irish-bred first-time starter represents another intriguing newcomer with Joel Rosario riding. The Irish breeding provides natural advantages for turf racing, and Clement’s exceptional statistics with his runners add confidence. At 6/1 odds, this filly offers solid value if she possesses the ability suggested by her pedigree and connections.
Vekoma View – Trainer Angle 6/1
George Weaver’s first-time starter receives specific endorsement from DRF handicapper David Aragona, who notes that Weaver is 6 for 30 (20%, $2.66 ROI) with two-year-old first-time starters in turf routes over five years. This filly is a half-sister to turf route winner Cliffs, providing solid pedigree credentials for the surface and distance. Dylan Davis takes the mount, and the 6/1 odds offer reasonable value based on the trainer’s statistical success with similar situations.
Longshots to Consider
Blue Madame – Brown Barn 10/1
Chad Brown’s two-year-old filly with one start under her belt presents value at 10/1 odds with Manuel Franco riding. Her lone effort resulted in a sixth-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile dirt event at Saratoga, providing valuable route experience. The Brown-Franco combination has shown effectiveness throughout the meet, and the surface switch to turf could unlock improvement.
Pampered – Pletcher Second String 6/1
Todd Pletcher’s entry with Javier Castellano aboard brings earnings of $60,000 from one start. Her lone effort produced a fourth-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile dirt race at Saratoga, demonstrating ability at the distance. While she runs in Fraudster’s shadow from the same barn, the Pletcher-Castellano team often produces upsets at attractive odds.
Pace Analysis
The 1 1/16-mile turf distance typically produces moderate early fractions with tactical positioning crucial through the first turn. Fraudster’s “Fast Stalker” profile suggests she will press the early pace without being overly aggressive. Two Bits’ “Fastest Stalker” classification indicates she may show more early speed, potentially setting up the race for closing types.
With multiple first-time starters in the field, the early pace scenario remains somewhat unpredictable. However, the experienced fillies like Fraudster and Two Bits should provide tactical benchmarks for the newcomers to follow.
Key Angles to Consider
The jockey factor plays significantly in this maiden event. The presence of John Velazquez, Joel Rosario, and Flavien Prat indicates serious intentions from their respective connections. These Hall of Fame and Eclipse Award-winning riders typically receive the best mounts available.
Trainer patterns strongly favor the Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher entries based on their proven success with young turf horses. Miguel Clement’s impressive 29% win rate adds intrigue to both Jadorlinija and Belle Of Georgia (IRE).
The European breeding angle with Irish-bred fillies Isadora Duncan and Belle Of Georgia provides natural advantages on the turf surface. Irish bloodlines often translate effectively to American grass racing conditions.
Surface switching represents a key consideration, particularly for Fraudster moving from dirt to turf for the first time. Her tactical speed and route experience provide advantages, but the surface change introduces uncertainty.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Betting: Jadorlinija at 5/2 offers the best value combination of connections and odds. The Clement-Rosario team with a first-time starter at reasonable odds presents excellent opportunity.
Place Betting: Isadora Duncan (IRE) at 7/2 provides strong place value given the Brown-Prat combination and Irish breeding advantages.
Show Betting: Fraudster at 2/1 offers safety in the show pool based on her experience and proven class, despite questions about the surface switch.
Exacta Combinations: Key plays include 13-10 (Jadorlinija over Isadora Duncan), 10-13 (Isadora Duncan over Jadorlinija), and 9-13, 9-10 (Fraudster combinations) for broader coverage.
Trifecta Strategy: Use Jadorlinija and Isadora Duncan (IRE) on top with Fraudster, Two Bits, and Vekoma View filling out combinations. The 13-10-9, 10-13-11, and 13-10-6 trifectas provide solid coverage of likely scenarios.
Superfecta Value: Include Belle Of Georgia (IRE), Blue Madame, and Pampered as potential fourth-place finishers to complete exotic wagers. The suggested superfecta combination of 3-8-9-11 (One More Guitar, Blue Madame, Fraudster, Two Bits) offers longshot potential at attractive payouts.
The race presents excellent opportunities for bettors willing to support talented first-time starters against a vulnerable favorite making her turf debut.
Detailed Analysis for Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming
Race Overview
Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A is an allowance optional claiming event for fillies and mares three years old and upward, contested at 6 furlongs on the turf course with a purse of $82,000. Post time is scheduled for 9:15 PM ET, featuring a competitive field of 11 horses with a claiming price of $45,000. This New York-bred restricted event offers opportunities for both allowance horses and claimers, creating an intriguing mix of class levels and form cycles.
Key Contenders Analysis
Bellacose – Morning Line Favorite 3/2
Wesley Ward’s three-year-old filly enters as the deserved favorite with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard. Her record shows exceptional winning ability with 2 wins from 5 career starts, translating to a 40% win rate and 40% in-the-money percentage. Most recently, she finished seventh in a 5½-furlong turf event at Saratoga, but rebounded from that disappointing effort with a victory in a 6-furlong dirt race at Saratoga. Her “Slowest Leads” running style suggests she can secure uncontested early fractions in this field composition. The Ward-Velazquez combination brings proven success, and her ability to handle both turf and dirt surfaces provides tactical flexibility.
Strictly Taboo – Strong Second Choice 2/1
Miguel Clement’s four-year-old mare represents excellent value with Joel Rosario riding. Her recent form shows consistency with earnings of $259,150 from 11 career starts, including 3 wins, 4 seconds, and 7 thirds for a 27% win rate and impressive 64% in-the-money percentage. Most recently, she finished first in a 7-horse field at Saratoga over 5½ furlongs on turf, demonstrating her effectiveness on the grass surface. Prior to that victory, she placed third in a similar turf event at Saratoga. Her “Fastest Stalker” running style positions her perfectly to track early pace and strike when ready.
Slightly Busy – Tactical Threat 5/2
Amelia Green’s three-year-old filly brings impressive credentials with Manuel Franco aboard. Her limited career shows 2 wins from 6 starts, producing a 33% win rate and 50% in-the-money percentage with earnings of $262,100. Most recently, she finished second in a 1-mile dirt event at Saratoga, demonstrating her ability to handle route distances. Her “Slower Leads” classification suggests she can control early fractions while setting up her tactical kick. The Franco booking provides additional confidence, as his tactical awareness in turf sprints offers positioning advantages.
Secondary Choices Analysis
Accelerated News – Closing Threat 7/2
Melanie Giddings’ three-year-old filly offers value with Christopher Elliott riding. Her record shows 1 win from 6 career starts with earnings of $163,700, including recent efforts that demonstrate improving form. Most recently, she finished fifth in a 7-furlong dirt race at Saratoga after scoring a victory in a 6½-furlong dirt event. Her “Mid Pack Closer” running style could prove effective if the early pace becomes contested, and the cutback to 6 furlongs may suit her tactical speed.
Majestic Return – Experience Factor 5/2
Ilkay Kantarmaci’s four-year-old mare brings extensive experience with earnings of $491,440 from 20 career starts. Her record includes 3 wins, 5 seconds, and 8 thirds for a 40% in-the-money percentage. Most recently, she finished fourth in a 5-horse field over 6½ furlongs on dirt at Aqueduct, showing competitive form at this level. Her “Slower Leads” style provides tactical options, though the jockey assignment remains to be announced.
Weekend Rags – Expert Pick 6/1
Linda Rice’s four-year-old mare represents strong value with Eclipse Award winner Flavien Prat aboard. Expert handicapper selection as a “best bet” at 6-1 odds suggests hidden form or positive training indicators. Her career shows 3 wins from 21 starts with earnings of $479,820, demonstrating consistent competitiveness. Most recently, she finished fifth in a 5½-furlong turf event at Saratoga after placing second in a similar race. Her “Fast Stalker” running style positions her well for tactical development, and Prat’s 30% win rate provides significant jockey upgrade.
Longshots to Consider
Linarite – Consistent Performer 8/1
Michael Miceli’s four-year-old mare brings solid credentials with Kendrick Carmouche riding. Her career shows 2 wins from 25 starts but impressive consistency with 18 in-the-money finishes for a 72% place rate. Most recently, she finished fourth in a 6-furlong dirt race at Aqueduct after scoring a victory in a 6-furlong dirt event. Her “Mid Pack Deep” closing style could prove effective at attractive odds if the pace develops favorably.
Kerry – Sharp-Trained Value 6/1
Joe Sharp’s four-year-old mare offers intriguing value with Dylan Davis aboard. Her career shows 4 wins from 22 starts with earnings of $389,420, indicating consistent earning ability. Most recently, she finished second in a 5½-furlong turf event at Saratoga, demonstrating current form on the grass surface. Her “Mid Pack Leads” style provides tactical flexibility, and Sharp’s training provides positive angle consideration.
Pace Analysis
The 6-furlong turf distance should produce moderate early fractions with several horses possessing early speed. Bellacose’s “Slowest Leads” classification suggests she may secure uncontested fractions if other speed horses fail to engage aggressively. Slightly Busy’s “Slower Leads” style provides secondary pace pressure, while Patria’s “Slower Leader” designation adds to the early pace scenario.
The presence of stalkers like Strictly Taboo (“Fastest Stalker”) and Weekend Rags (“Fast Stalker”) should create competitive positioning through the middle stages. Accelerated News and Linarite provide closing threats if the pace becomes tactical.
Key Angles to Consider
The jockey factor plays significantly with Hall of Fame riders John Velazquez, Joel Rosario, and Flavien Prat bringing proven expertise to their respective mounts. Prat’s booking on Weekend Rags at 6/1 odds represents a particularly strong angle given his success rate.
Trainer patterns favor Wesley Ward’s success with young turf horses, while Linda Rice’s Weekend Rags receives expert handicapper endorsement despite moderate recent form. The New York-bred restriction provides familiarity advantages for horses with extensive local experience.
Surface considerations favor horses with proven turf form, particularly Strictly Taboo’s recent turf victory and Kerry’s solid turf placing at Saratoga. The 6-furlong distance suits both speed and stalking types while potentially disadvantaging pure closers.
Wagering Recommendations
Win Betting: Weekend Rags at 6/1 offers exceptional value based on expert handicapper selection and Flavien Prat’s riding. Strictly Taboo at 2/1 provides solid value given recent turf success and tactical advantages.
Place Betting: Bellacose at 3/2 represents strong place value despite questions about her last turf effort. Her class and connections suggest competitive placement.
Show Betting: Slightly Busy at 5/2 offers safety in the show pool based on her tactical speed and Franco’s riding expertise.
Exacta Combinations: Key plays include 7-1 (Weekend Rags over Strictly Taboo), 1-7 (Strictly Taboo over Weekend Rags), and 9-1, 9-7 (Bellacose combinations) for broader coverage.
Trifecta Strategy: Use Weekend Rags and Strictly Taboo on top with Bellacose, Slightly Busy, and Accelerated News filling out combinations. The 7-1-9, 1-7-6, and 7-1-10 trifectas provide solid coverage of likely finishing orders.
Superfecta Value: The suggested combination of 11-7-1-3 (Majestic Return, Weekend Rags, Strictly Taboo, Patria) offers longshot potential, though consider including Bellacose and Accelerated News in alternative combinations for better coverage.
The race presents excellent value opportunities with Weekend Rags receiving expert endorsement at attractive odds while proven performers like Strictly Taboo offer solid win chances based on recent turf form.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Evan Dwan has developed strong chemistry with Zarak the Brave (FR), guiding the horse to consistent placings in Grade 1 competition. His tactical awareness in steeplechase racing provides advantages in positioning and timing.
Conor Tierney’s recent success aboard Hidden Path demonstrates effective partnership development. His ability to rate horses in longer events suits the 2½-mile distance.
Graham Watters scored impressively with Welshman at Far Hills, showing confidence in the horse’s current form. His experience in steeplechase competition provides tactical advantages.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Thomas Garner’s training of Zarak the Brave (FR) has produced consistent results at the highest level of steeplechase competition. The preparation pattern suggests the horse is ready for another strong effort.
Richard J. Hendriks has improved Hidden Path’s form throughout the campaign, with the horse showing steady development in Grade 1 company. The training approach emphasizes gradual improvement and tactical development.
Jack Fisher’s handling of Welshman produced a dominant performance at Far Hills, indicating effective preparation methods. The trainer’s confidence in stepping up to Grade 1 level suggests strong belief in the horse’s current condition.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The primary strategy focuses on Zarak the Brave (FR) as the most reliable win bet while incorporating Hidden Path and Welshman in multi-race wagers. The 3-1 odds on the favorite provide reasonable value given the horse’s consistent Grade 1 form.
Value opportunities exist in place betting on Hidden Path at 7-2 odds, offering strong potential returns on a horse showing improvement trends. Welshman at 9-2 presents win value if the Far Hills form translates to Grade 1 success.
Long shot value exists with Travesuras at 10-1 odds in place and show positions, particularly given the potential for class improvement in handicap conditions.
Multi-race exotic wagers should focus on the top four choices while including Travesuras as a potential upset candidate in trifecta and superfecta combinations.
