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The fall meet at Belmont at the Big A continues with a competitive 10-race card featuring two stakes races, including the $150,000 Nashua Stakes for two-year-olds and the $150,000 Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Current conditions show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 54-56°F and windy conditions with west winds at 31 mph. The main track is rated fast while both inner and outer turf courses are firm. Turf races will utilize the outer course set at 12 feet for races 2, 5, and 8, while the inner turf at 9 feet will handle races 6 and 9.​

Race-by-Race Analysis

Race 1 – $41,000 Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt) – 12:05 PM

Key Contenders:
Shadow Surge enters as the likely favorite following an impressive gate-to-wire victory in his last start over this course and distance. The 4-year-old gelding showed tactical speed and strong finishing kick under Jaime Rodriguez for trainer Ilkay Kantarmaci.​

Secondary Choices:
Prince of Dance has shown consistency in recent starts and could benefit from the class relief in this $30,000 claiming level. Derek’s Law and Spirit Dragon both possess early speed that could set up a pace battle.

Longshots to Consider:
Detail Oriented drops significantly in class and could offer value at longer odds under Ruben Silvera.

Pace Analysis:
Shadow Surge, Derek’s Law, and Spirit Dragon all show early speed, suggesting a contested pace scenario that could favor closers like Prince of Dance or Majestic Arc.

Race 2 – $38,000 Claiming (7 Furlongs, Dirt) – 12:32 PM

Key Contenders:
Burninhunkoflove appears best suited for this distance and class level under Ricardo Santana Jr. for trainer Chad Summers. The 6-year-old gelding has tactical speed and should handle the distance well.

Secondary Choices:
Cathedral Beach and Amundson both show consistent form and could factor with the right trip setup.

Pace Analysis:
Modest early pace expected with several horses showing stalking tendencies, which should favor horses with tactical speed.

Race 3 – $70,000 Maiden Optional Claiming (6.5 Furlongs, Dirt) – 12:59 PM

Key Contenders:
Wit Storm represents the powerful Barclay Tagg barn and Dylan Davis combination. The 2-year-old gelding has shown promise in morning works and breeding suggests ability at this distance.

Secondary Choices:
Where’s Your Boom under Ricardo Santana Jr. could benefit from the jockey’s strong 2025 form (14% win rate). Big Brooklyn and Sixer both trained by Carlos Martin could provide value.​

Longshots to Consider:
Life Is Gravy (IRE) brings European breeding to this spot and could surprise at a price.

Race 4 – $150,000 Nashua Stakes (1 Mile, Dirt) – 1:26 PM

The Nashua Stakes presents a competitive field of five two-year-olds competing at one mile on the main track, with Day One Starter installed as the 7/5 morning line favorite.​

Field Analysis

Day One Starter (7/5 Favorite)
The Wilson Family Stables colorbearer enters off an impressive gate-to-wire maiden victory at Belmont at the Big A on September 13th, winning by 4½ lengths in 1:16.72 for six furlongs. Trained by Hall of Famer Claude “Shug” McGaughey III and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr., this Upstart colt showed tactical speed early, marking fractions of 22.34 and 45.55 before drawing away convincingly. The $160,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase demonstrated both early speed and stamina in his debut, making the stretch-out to one mile a logical progression.​

Probably Dreaming (3/1)
Gary Capuano’s unbeaten charge arrives with an unblemished three-for-three record, most recently capturing the Rocky Run Stakes at Delaware Park on October 10th by 4½ lengths in 1:40.22. The victory came at one mile, proving his ability to handle today’s distance. Prior to that, he won the First State Dash Stakes at Delaware Park in September, also by decisive margins. Carlos Eduardo Lopez takes the mount on this consistent performer who has shown the ability to rate off the pace and finish strongly.​

My World (9/5)
Brad Cox sends out this promising colt who gets the services of Jaime Rodriguez. Cox maintains a solid 13% win rate in 2025 with strong earnings per start statistics. While details of My World’s recent form are limited, the Cox-Rodriguez combination commands respect, especially given the trainer’s success with two-year-olds and stakes-level competition.​

Tough Guy Tony (7/2)
Robert Reid Jr. trains this Maximus Mischief colt for LC Racing LLC, with Eliseo Ruiz in the irons. Reid brings impressive credentials with 47 stakes wins and 12 graded stakes victories on his resume, including major successes like the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Marathon with Afleet Again and the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies with Vequist. The trainer has shown particular skill with developing young horses for stakes competition.​

Empire of Glory (10/1)
James Lawrence II trains this longest shot in the field under Kendrick Carmouche. At 10/1 odds, Empire of Glory represents the value play in the field but faces a significant class test against proven stakes-caliber competition.​

Pace and Trip Analysis

The pace setup appears favorable for Day One Starter, who demonstrated gate speed in his maiden victory while showing the ability to sustain that speed throughout. Probably Dreaming has shown tactical versatility, rating kindly before unleashing strong finishing kicks in his victories. This pace dynamic could set up well for horses with tactical speed who can position themselves within striking range.​

The one-turn mile configuration at Belmont at the Big A should favor horses with early speed and tactical ability, as there is less time to make up significant ground from off-the-pace positions.

Key Angles

Class Relief: Both Day One Starter and Probably Dreaming step up from maiden and state-bred stakes competition to open stakes company, but both have shown the quality to handle this progression.

Trainer Form: McGaughey III’s Hall of Fame credentials speak for themselves, while Cox continues his strong 2025 campaign. Reid Jr.’s stakes success record provides confidence for Tough Guy Tony.​

Jockey Combinations: Santana Jr.’s 14% win rate this year makes him dangerous aboard the favorite, while Rodriguez brings consistent form to the Cox trainee.

Wagering Analysis

Day One Starter presents the most complete package with proven ability over the track, strong connections, and demonstrated gate speed that should translate well to the one-turn mile. The 7/5 odds appear fair given his advantages.​

Probably Dreaming offers the most value at 3/1, given his unbeaten record and proven ability at the distance. His recent Rocky Run Stakes victory demonstrates he can handle both the distance and level of competition.​

Recommended Plays:

• Win: Day One Starter
• Value Play: Probably Dreaming
• Exacta: Day One Starter over Probably Dreaming
• Trifecta: Day One Starter/Probably Dreaming with My World and Tough Guy Tony

The Nashua Stakes shapes up as a two-horse race between Day One Starter and Probably Dreaming, with both bringing compelling credentials to this $150,000 test.​​

Race 5 – $70,000 Maiden Optional Claiming Fillies (6 Furlongs, Outer Turf) – 1:55 PM

Key Contenders:
Bashful Baby represents the strong Miguel Clement barn with Jaime Rodriguez aboard. The combination has shown success throughout the meet.

South Philly Slide under Ricardo Santana Jr. brings strong connections and could improve with the surface switch to turf.

Secondary Choices:
Black Rose from the Mark Casse barn deserves respect, while Scorch could provide value at longer odds.

Longshots to Consider:
Several first-time starters make this race particularly challenging to predict, including Catholic Vice and Marajoline.

Race 6 – $85,000 Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile, Dirt) – 2:36 PM

The featured maiden special weight at one mile on the main track presents a competitive field of eight three-year-olds and up seeking their first career victory, with Time to Win installed as the 8/5 morning line favorite.​

Field Analysis

Time to Win (8/5 Favorite)
Chad Brown’s ridgling emerges as the logical choice under Dylan Davis, representing the powerful combination that has dominated throughout the 2025 season. Brown tied for the Saratoga training title with 32 victories and maintains excellent statistics with maiden competitors. The son of Tonalist adds blinkers for today’s assignment, which could provide the needed sharpening for a breakthrough performance. Time to Win has shown consistent effort in his recent starts and the class relief to maiden special weight conditions should benefit his chances.​

Radauti (3/1)
Miguel Clement trains this 3-year-old colt who gets the services of Kendrick Carmouche. Radauti has been knocking on the door with four runner-up finishes in his career, demonstrating both consistency and competitive ability. Clement has shown solid form during the Belmont at the Big A meet and Carmouche brings a 15.0% win rate from the Saratoga summer session. The combination warrants serious respect as the second choice.​

Copious (5/1)
Bill Mott sends out this 3-year-old colt under Sahin Civaci, representing the Hall of Fame trainer’s first of two entries in the race. Mott maintains a 25% win rate with 57% in-the-money percentage, making him one of the most reliable trainers in the sport. Copious showed promise when placed over this course and distance previously, suggesting readiness for the breakthrough effort.​

Life and Times (6/1)
Todd Pletcher’s 4-year-old gelding gets Jose Lezcano in what represents another powerful trainer-jockey combination. Pletcher has shown exceptional success with maiden competitors throughout his Hall of Fame career, capturing numerous maiden special weight events. The veteran gelding brings experience and Pletcher’s proven ability to spot horses in the right situations.​

Love’m Or Liam (6/1)
Mott’s second entry features Eric Cancel aboard this 3-year-old colt who has shown consistent form with a record of 3:0-1-2. Cancel brings a solid 12.0% win rate to the partnership, and the combination of Mott’s training expertise with the horse’s demonstrated ability makes this a live contender at generous odds.​

Gualillo (12/1)
Richard Dutrow Jr. trains this gelding under Ricardo Santana Jr., bringing together a trainer with significant stakes success and the meet’s leading rider. Dutrow has captured major graded stakes including the Breeders’ Cup Classic with White Abarrio and maintains a solid stable throughout 2025. Santana Jr.’s 14.8% win rate at Saratoga demonstrates his current form.​

Bermuda Triangle (12/1)
William Morey’s 3-year-old gelding by Justify adds blinkers today under Ruben Silvera. The son of Justify has shown improvement with a recent second-place finish and brings solid breeding to this assignment. Morey maintains a respectable 38% win rate, suggesting he spots his horses well.​

Salvation (15/1)
Linda Rice trains this longshot under Katie Davis, representing a combination that has shown consistent form during the meet. Rice finished third in the Saratoga trainer standings and has maintained solid statistics throughout the Belmont at the Big A session.​

Pace and Trip Analysis

The pace setup appears moderate with several horses showing tactical speed rather than pure early pace. Time to Win and Radauti both possess the ability to position themselves favorably, while the Mott entries can rate kindly off the early fractions. The one-mile distance should allow horses with tactical speed to work out favorable trips.

Key Angles

Trainer Dominance: Brown, Pletcher, and Mott represent three of the sport’s elite trainers, combining for exceptional success rates in maiden competition.​

Equipment Changes: Both Time to Win and Bermuda Triangle add blinkers, potentially providing the sharpening needed for breakthrough performances.​

Jockey Combinations: The race features several strong rider connections, with Santana Jr. leading the way in current form statistics.​

Class Positioning: This maiden special weight level represents appropriate placement for horses with the breeding and connections featured in this field.

Wagering Analysis

Time to Win presents the most complete package with elite trainer connections, proven form at the level, and the equipment change that could provide improvement. The 8/5 odds appear appropriate given Brown’s success rate and the horse’s demonstrated ability.

Radauti offers value as the second choice at 3/1, with consistent runner-up finishes suggesting readiness to break through. The Clement-Carmouche combination has shown excellent form during the meet.

The Mott entries provide interesting value plays, particularly Love’m Or Liam at 6/1 odds with his consistent form pattern and the trainer’s exceptional success rate.

Recommended Plays:

• Win: Time to Win
• Value Play: Radauti
• Exotic Coverage: Include Copious and Love’m Or Liam
• Exacta: Time to Win over Radauti
• Trifecta: Time to Win/Radauti with Copious, Life and Times, Love’m Or Liam

The maiden special weight shapes up as a competitive affair where class and connections should prevail, making Time to Win and Radauti the primary focus while respecting the Mott-trained alternatives.​​

Race 7 – $81,000 Allowance (1 1/16 Miles, Turf) – 3:17 PM

The New York-bred allowance at 1 1/16 miles on the turf presents a competitive field of 13 horses, with El de Larry installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite in what promises to be one of the most challenging races on the card.​

Field Analysis

El de Larry (5/2 Favorite)
W. Robert Bailes’ 4-year-old gelding enters off consecutive runner-up finishes, most recently placing second to Sounds Like A Plan on September 12th at this course and distance. The son of Paynter captured a victory on May 25th at Belmont at the Big A, demonstrating his affinity for the local turf course. Bailes maintains a solid 16.33% win rate in allowance company and the partnership with Dylan Davis provides tactical familiarity. El de Larry has earned consistent ratings in the low 90s and appears well-positioned for another strong effort.​

Mo for the King (3/1)
David P. Duggan trains this gelding who appears as the alternate entry #11 but could draw into the field with scratches. The morning line positioning suggests confidence from connections despite the also-eligible status.​

Amplitude (7/2)
Chad Brown’s 4-year-old colt adds blinkers for today’s assignment, representing a significant equipment change that could provide sharpening. Brown tied for the Saratoga training title with 32 victories and maintains exceptional statistics with turf horses. Jose Lezcano provides the riding services, forming a combination that has produced consistent success throughout the meet. The blinkers-on notation suggests Brown believes his charge needs additional focus to reach his potential.​

Annexperience (4/1)
Jeremiah C. Englehart’s 3-year-old colt brings a solid foundation with a victory at Saratoga on July 17th followed by competitive efforts in similar company. The gelding has shown tactical versatility, capable of rating off the pace before delivering strong finishing kicks. Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount on a horse that appears to be finding his best form at the right time. Recent efforts show ratings in the upper 80s to low 90s, indicating competitive ability at this level.​

Moe Eighty Eight (8/1)
John Alexander Ortiz trains this 3-year-old gelding who broke his maiden impressively on September 18th, winning by comfortable margins at $5.58. The son of Solomini showed tactical ability in that victory, rating kindly before unleashing a strong move. Ricardo Santana Jr. gets the leg-up, providing a significant jockey upgrade from his maiden score. The step up from maiden special weight to allowance company represents a natural progression for this improving sort.​

Zapruder (15/1)
Todd A. Pletcher’s 5-year-old gelding brings Hall of Fame connections but has struggled to find his best form in recent starts. Eric Cancel rides for the trainer who maintains exceptional success rates in turf competition. Despite recent disappointing efforts, the class and connections warrant respect at generous odds.​

Terminal Velocity (12/1)
Lisa Bartkowski trains this gelding under Jaime Rodriguez, representing a combination that has shown solid form during the meet. The 12/1 odds suggest value potential for a horse with competitive recent efforts.

Charles J (8/1)
Joseph R. Lee’s trainee gets Ruben Silvera aboard at attractive 8/1 odds. The morning line positioning indicates some public support despite limited recent information.

Sebastianthe First (5/1)
Jose H. Delgado trains this contender who draws Ricardo Santana Jr., combining with the meet’s leading rider for what could be a dangerous combination at generous odds.​

Pace and Trip Analysis

The race appears to set up with moderate early fractions, as several horses show tactical speed rather than pure early pace. El de Larry and Amplitude both possess positioning speed, while Annexperience and Moe Eighty Eight can rate off the early fractions. The 1 1/16-mile distance on turf should allow for tactical development and strong finishing kicks.

The turf course has been playing fairly with rail at 18 feet, suggesting no significant bias toward inside or outside posts.​

Key Angles

Equipment Changes: Amplitude adds blinkers for the first time, potentially providing the sharpening needed from elite trainer Chad Brown.​

Class Progression: Moe Eighty Eight makes his first start in allowance company following a strong maiden victory, representing natural progression.​

Course Specialists: El de Larry has shown consistent form over this specific course and distance, providing a significant advantage.​

Trainer Form: Brown’s exceptional meet statistics make any of his runners dangerous, while the Englehart stable has shown consistent improvement with Annexperience.​

Wagering Analysis

El de Larry presents the most reliable option with proven course form and tactical speed under the experienced Bailes-Davis combination. The 5/2 odds appear fair given his advantages and consistent recent efforts.

Amplitude offers intriguing value at 7/2 with the equipment change and elite connections. Brown’s success rate with blinkers-on horses makes this a compelling overlay opportunity.

Annexperience provides solid value at 4/1 with improving form and tactical versatility that suits the distance and surface. The Englehart trainee appears to be peaking at the right time.

Moe Eighty Eight represents an interesting long shot at 8/1, stepping up in class but showing natural progression and getting a significant jockey upgrade with Santana Jr.

Recommended Plays:

• Win: El de Larry
• Value Play: Amplitude
• Longshot Special: Moe Eighty Eight
• Exacta: El de Larry over Amplitude and Annexperience
• Trifecta: El de Larry/Amplitude with Annexperience, Moe Eighty Eight, Sebastianthe First

The New York-bred allowance shapes up as a competitive affair where proven course form and strong connections should prevail, making El de Larry the logical choice while respecting the Chad Brown-trained Amplitude as the primary danger.​​

Race 8 – $65,000 Starter Allowance (7 Furlongs, Dirt) – 3:57 PM

Key Contenders:
Ranger Battalion appears best suited for this class and distance combination. The Linda Rice trainee has shown consistent form and gets Jose Lezcano.​

Secondary Choices:
Uncle Jim and Shattuck both bring competitive records to this starter allowance level.

Race 9 – $150,000 Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship (6 Furlongs, Outer Turf) – 4:38 PM

The featured stakes race of the day brings together 13 seasoned turf sprinters competing at six furlongs on the outer turf course, with Bouncer installed as the 2/1 morning line favorite in this competitive Listed stakes event.​

Field Analysis

Bouncer (2/1 Favorite)
Jamie Ness trains this 5-year-old gelding who captured an allowance feature at Laurel Park in June, scoring by a neck in 1:10.07 under Jaime Rodriguez. The son of Blame demonstrated tactical versatility, stalking the pace three-wide before engaging in a fierce stretch duel to prevail. Rodriguez noted that Bouncer “likes to run in company” and responds well when challenged, making him particularly dangerous in a competitive stakes field. The combination returns to New York where Bouncer has shown consistent form, and the partnership with Rodriguez provides confidence after their successful Laurel collaboration.​

Outlaw Kid (5/2)
George Weaver’s 6-year-old gelding by Violence gets Ricardo Santana Jr. for this assignment, bringing together the meet’s leading rider with a proven stakes campaigner. Outlaw Kid finished fifth in last year’s Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship but was noted as racing wide, which compromised his chances. The extended vacation following that effort appears to have benefited the gelding, who returned to action with improved form. Weaver has positioned this horse perfectly for another stakes attempt, and Santana Jr.’s 14% win rate makes this combination particularly dangerous.​

Damon’s Mound (3/1)
Hall of Fame trainer William Mott sends out this 5-year-old horse who has returned to top form after a lengthy absence. The dual Grade 2 winner made a successful comeback in the Sunshine Sprint after being away for 390 days, demonstrating his class and resilience. Mott’s exceptional success rate with stakes horses makes Damon’s Mound a serious contender, especially with his proven ability at the highest levels. Sahin Civaci takes the mount on a horse described as being “back on his A game”.​

Big Everest (GB) (8/1)
Miguel Clement trains this 7-year-old gelding who boasts an impressive 5-for-9 record over the Aqueduct turf courses. The British-bred campaigner has shown particular affinity for this track and surface, making him a dangerous horse-for-course angle. Recent form shows consistent efforts with multiple victories, including scores on November 13th, September 29th, July 9th, and June 2nd. Kendrick Carmouche provides the riding services for a trainer who maintains solid statistics throughout the meet.​

Dancing Buck (7/2)
Michelle Nevin trains this 7-year-old War Dancer gelding who brings significant back class to this assignment. The Grade 3 winner wired the 2022 Grade 3 Belmont Turf Sprint at this venue, demonstrating his ability to handle stakes competition on this course. After winning the Listed Elusive Quality at Belmont at the Big A and finishing second in the Grade 3 San Simeon at Santa Anita, Dancing Buck kicks off his 7-year-old campaign following an extended layoff. Luis Rivera Jr. gets the leg-up on a horse with proven gate speed and finishing ability.​

Fierce and Strong (5/1)
Michael Salvaggio Jr. trains this consistent performer who brings an ultra-reliable turf record of 15-8-4-1 to this stakes assignment. The 5-year-old gelding by Hoppertunity has shown remarkable consistency on the turf with 8 wins from 14 turf starts and earnings of $314,890 on grass. Recent stakes victories include the Wolf Hill Stakes at Monmouth Park where he set a course record time. Jaime Rodriguez rides a horse that has proven he belongs at this level.​

Nothing Better (5/1)
Jorge Duarte Jr. trains this veteran campaigner who gets Jose Lezcano aboard. The 8-year-old gelding brings experience and proven durability to this competitive field.​

Niagara Skyline (6/1)
Fernando Abreu trains this contender under Dylan Davis, representing solid connections at attractive 6/1 odds.​

Secondary Contenders

Knockanara (10/1) represents Sarah Nagle with Samuel Marin riding, offering longshot value for exotic players.​

Gatsby (5/1) trained by Ilkay Kantarmaci brings European connections to this competitive field.​

Incinerator (12/1) provides the longest odds in the field under trainer Jose Magana and jockey Ismerio Villalobos.​

Pace and Trip Analysis

The six-furlong sprint distance on turf typically favors horses with tactical speed who can position themselves within striking range. Bouncer and Dancing Buck both possess gate speed, while Outlaw Kid and Damon’s Mound can rate off the early fractions. The outer turf course at 12 feet should provide fair racing conditions without significant bias.

Key Angles

Course Specialists: Big Everest’s 5-for-9 record over Aqueduct turf courses provides a significant statistical advantage.​

Return to Form: Damon’s Mound’s successful comeback from extended layoff suggests peak condition.​

Proven Stakes Ability: Dancing Buck’s Grade 3 victory at this venue in 2022 demonstrates course-specific success.​

Jockey Advantage: Santana Jr.’s current form statistics make Outlaw Kid particularly dangerous.​

Wagering Analysis

Bouncer presents the most complete package with recent winning form, tactical versatility, and proven ability to handle pressure situations. The 2/1 odds appear fair given his advantages and strong connections.

Outlaw Kid offers solid value at 5/2 with the leading rider and a trainer who has positioned him perfectly for this spot. The wide trip in last year’s edition provides excuse for that performance.

Damon’s Mound represents excellent value at 3/1 with Hall of Fame connections and proven Grade 2-level ability. His successful comeback suggests peak form timing.

Big Everest provides intriguing value at 8/1 with his exceptional course record and consistent recent form. The horse-for-course angle cannot be overlooked.

Recommended Plays:

• Win: Bouncer
• Value Plays: Outlaw Kid, Damon’s Mound
• Longshot Special: Big Everest
• Exacta: Bouncer over Outlaw Kid and Damon’s Mound
• Trifecta: Bouncer/Outlaw Kid/Damon’s Mound with Big Everest, Dancing Buck, Fierce and Strong

The Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship shapes up as a competitive affair where recent form, course experience, and strong connections should prevail, making Bouncer the logical choice while respecting the quality throughout this deep field.​​

Race 10 – $88,000 Allowance (1 Mile, Turf) – 5:19 PM

The closing allowance at one mile on the turf presents a competitive field of 16 horses seeking their second career victory, with Capitol Hill installed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in what shapes up as one of the most challenging races on the card.​

Field Analysis

Capitol Hill (8/5 Favorite)
William Mott’s 3-year-old colt leads the field under Sahin Civaci with solid credentials including a best speed figure of 106 and earnings of $14,820 per start. The Hall of Fame trainer maintains exceptional success rates with allowance horses and has positioned this Tranquility Lake Farms runner perfectly for this assignment. Capitol Hill brings tactical versatility and consistent form to this competitive allowance field, making him a logical choice at moderate odds.​

Retouch (FR) (5/2)
Chad Brown’s 4-year-old gelding by Demarchelier gets Ricardo Santana Jr. for this assignment, combining the meet’s leading rider with one of racing’s most successful trainers. The Peter Brant colorbearer showed promise with a third-place finish at Tampa Bay Downs on April 11th and returns to action following extended conditioning. Brown maintains a 25% win rate and 62% in-the-money percentage with turf horses, making Retouch a formidable contender despite the 5/2 odds. The French-bred gelding captured a victory at Saint-Cloud in 2024, demonstrating his class on grass surfaces.​

Dettori (3/1)
Brittany Russell trains this 3-year-old colt who gets Jaime Rodriguez aboard at attractive 3/1 odds. Russell has shown solid form throughout the meet with a 22.86% win rate and strong positioning abilities. The combination brings value potential in a deep field where several trainers hold similar statistical advantages.​

Favorable Scenario (7/2)
Chad Brown’s second entry pairs Dylan Davis with this 5-year-old gelding in what represents another powerful combination. Brown’s exceptional turf statistics make any of his runners dangerous, particularly when getting tactical riders like Davis. The 7/2 morning line odds suggest this entry could provide value given Brown’s success rate in similar spots.​

Mr. Ripple (7/2)
Miguel Clement trains this 5-year-old gelding who shows consistent form with a 33% win rate and 58% in-the-money percentage. Clement has maintained exceptional form since taking over the stable operations, posting a 21% win rate with 53 victories from 257 starts and $6.5 million in earnings. The trainer’s recent success at the highest levels makes Mr. Ripple a serious contender at generous odds.​

Dreamlike (4/1)
Linda Rice conditions this 5-year-old gelding under Kendrick Carmouche, representing a trainer who finished third in the Saratoga standings and maintains solid allowance statistics. Rice has compiled 1,425 career victories with over $54 million in earnings, making her one of the most successful trainers in New York racing. Dreamlike was claimed for $50,000 from a second-place finish and appears well-positioned for this allowance level.​

Chileno (9/2)
Brad Cox sends out this 6-year-old horse who brings graded stakes experience to this allowance assignment. Cox captured the 2025 Keeneland training title with 12 wins and maintains exceptional statistics throughout his career. The son of Gun Runner has shown class at higher levels and could provide value in this competitive field.​

Secondary Contenders

Tiger Twenty Four (8/1) represents another Bill Mott entry with Jose Lezcano aboard, bringing Hall of Fame connections at attractive odds. The 3-year-old colt broke his maiden impressively on September 20th at this course and distance, winning by comfortable margins.​

Bosun (5/1) trained by Joe Sharp gets Ruben Silvera, while Playa Del Mar (5/1) gives Mott a third entry in the field.​

Snookie Bear (20/1) represents Richard Dutrow Jr. with Ricardo Santana Jr., bringing longshot value from a trainer with stakes success.​

Pace and Trip Analysis

The one-mile turf distance should allow for tactical development with moderate early fractions expected. Capitol Hill and Retouch (FR) both possess positioning speed, while several others can rate off the pace and deliver strong finishing kicks. The inner turf course at 18 feet should provide fair racing conditions without significant bias.​

Key Angles

Trainer Dominance: Brown, Mott, Cox, and Rice represent four of the sport’s most successful trainers, combining for exceptional statistics in allowance competition.​

Jockey Combinations: Santana Jr.’s current form makes his mounts particularly dangerous, while experienced riders like Lezcano and Rodriguez provide tactical expertise.​

Class Positioning: This allowance level represents appropriate placement for horses stepping up from maiden or claiming ranks, or dropping from stakes competition.

Wagering Analysis

Capitol Hill presents the most complete package with Hall of Fame connections, consistent form, and proven ability at this level. The 8/5 odds appear fair given Mott’s success rate and the horse’s demonstrated reliability.

Retouch (FR) offers solid value at 5/2 with elite trainer connections and the meet’s leading rider. Brown’s 25% success rate with turf horses makes this a compelling overlay opportunity.

Mr. Ripple provides excellent value at 7/2 with Clement’s exceptional recent form and the horse’s consistent statistical profile. The trainer’s 21% win rate since assuming stable operations makes this a dangerous longshot.

Dreamlike represents intriguing value at 4/1 with Rice’s proven New York success and the horse’s appropriate class positioning following the recent claim.

Recommended Plays:

• Win: Capitol Hill
• Value Plays: Retouch (FR), Mr. Ripple
• Longshot Special: Tiger Twenty Four
• Exacta: Capitol Hill over Retouch (FR) and Mr. Ripple
• Trifecta: Capitol Hill/Retouch (FR) with Mr. Ripple, Dreamlike, Dettori, Favorable Scenario

The allowance finale shapes up as a competitive affair where established connections and proven form should prevail, making Capitol Hill the logical choice while respecting the quality throughout this deep and challenging field.​​

Jockey Notes and Insights

Ricardo Santana Jr. continues his strong 2025 campaign with 129 wins from 914 starts (14% win rate) and 41% in-the-money percentage. His mounts in races 2, 3, 5, and 9 deserve serious consideration.​

Jose Lezcano has shown consistent form throughout the Belmont at the Big A meet and gets live mounts in races 6 and 8.

Dylan Davis pairs with top trainers Chad Brown and Barclay Tagg in multiple races, making him a jockey to follow.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher enter the day as co-leaders after tying for the Saratoga training title with 32 wins each. Both trainers have multiple strong contenders throughout the card.​

Linda Rice finished third at Saratoga with 24 wins and has shown particular strength in dirt races at Belmont at the Big A.​

Miguel Clement and Bill Mott both bring competitive stables and should be respected in their respective spots.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Single Race Plays:

• Race 1: Shadow Surge to win
• Race 4: Day One Starter in the Nashua Stakes
• Race 9: Outlaw Kid in the Turf Sprint Championship

Multi-Race Opportunities:

• Daily Double (Races 4-5): Day One Starter with Bashful Baby
• Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9): Amplitude, Ranger Battalion, Outlaw Kid

Value Plays:

• Race 3: Where’s Your Boom at morning line odds
• Race 7: Annexperience at 4-1
• Race 2: Burninhunkoflove as potential overlay