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The fall racing season continues at Belmont at the Big A with an attractive eight-race card featuring a diverse mix of claiming, allowance, starter optional claiming, and maiden contests. Today’s racing card offers excellent wagering opportunities across varied conditions and distances, with several New York-bred competitions highlighting the afternoon’s action.
Weather Forecast and Track Conditions
Perfect racing conditions greet horseplayers today at the Big A with partly cloudy skies, temperatures reaching 63 degrees, and north winds at 17 mph. The track is listed as fast for dirt racing with turf conditions firm, creating favorable environments for honest pace scenarios and fair racing across all running styles. Current conditions show partly cloudy weather with temperatures expected to fall to around 61 degrees in the afternoon, with east winds around 8 mph.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – 1:10 PM – $30,000 Claiming
This six-horse claiming event presents four logical contenders with two potential outsiders in what appears to be a competitive affair.
Key Contenders:
Fever Night (#3) represents the most trustworthy option based on class relief alone, making him formidable after facing much tougher competition in his previous starts for trainer Linda Rice. The gelding shows significant improvement potential dropping in class, though his lack of early speed in this pace-less race creates trip concerns.
Derek’s Law (#4) displayed strong form in his most recent outing but carries questions about consistency based on prior performances. Trainer Linda Rice’s decision to enter this horse in a turf sprint before scratching raises some concerns about readiness.
Cocktailsnkringle (#5) comes off a career-best Saratoga victory at today’s distance, though he defeated a relatively weak field. A repeat performance could prove decisive in this spot.
Secondary Choices:
Neon Bordeaux (#2) brings consistent form to the race but presents another plodding type in a pace-less scenario, potentially needing this start off a layoff for the Richard Dutrow Jr. stable.
Longshot Analysis:
Magni (#1) offers intriguing value despite appearing outclassed based on previous dirt form. The three-year-old last competed on dirt in April, and sophomores often show significant improvement from spring into fall. His recent turf efforts demonstrate steady improvement with wide trips making his results appear worse than actual performance. TimeformUS analyst David Aragona identifies him as fair value at 9-1 or greater.
Selections: Magni (#1), Fever Night (#3), Cocktailsnkringle (#5)
Race 2 – 1:43 PM – $81,000 Allowance (Turf)
The second race presents a competitive nine-horse New York-bred allowance field over six furlongs on the outer turf course. This $81,000 contest features horses that have never won $20,000 other than maiden, claiming, or starter races, or have never won two races. With the rail set at 12 feet, the race should provide fair ground for all running styles.
Morning Line Analysis
The morning line shows a wide-open betting race with Roofer favored at 2-1, followed by co-second choices Uncle George and King Puck both at 5-2. Launch Control rounds out the top choices at 3-1, while Van Vollenhoven sits at 7-2. The competitive nature of the odds reflects the quality depth in this allowance company.
Key Contenders
King Puck (#1) – 5-2
The Miguel Clement trainee represents the most logical winner based on recent form and connections. This four-year-old gelding by Twirling Candy “looks well-placed to build on his impressive maiden win last time out” according to Irish Racing analysis. Rated 81 with Joel Rosario aboard, King Puck carries 123 pounds and shows form figures of 227-21.
Clement’s expertise with turf runners adds significant appeal, as he’s noted as an “excellent turf sprint trainer” who has achieved success with similar types. Rosario brings tactical flexibility and proven big-race experience, making this combination formidable in allowance company. The gelding’s breeding by Twirling Candy out of Andraste provides solid turf genetics.
Master Freud (#2) – 6-1
The highest-rated horse in the field at 92, this four-year-old gelding by Freud represents solid value at morning line odds. Trained by Antonio Arriaga with Christopher Elliott riding, Master Freud carries 121 pounds with the weight allowance and shows recent form figures of 354453. His official rating suggests he belongs with these despite longer odds.
Elliott’s tactical riding style could prove beneficial in a competitive field where positioning becomes crucial. The gelding’s breeding by Freud out of Zucca indicates turf affinity, and his recent form shows consistent efforts against similar competition.
Van Vollenhoven (#4) – 7-2
Daily Racing Form analysis specifically notes that “Van Vollenhoven should get better trip against familiar foes,” suggesting trip trouble affected his recent efforts. This four-year-old gelding by Big Brown carries 123 pounds with Kendrick Carmouche riding for David Duggan. Rated 90 with form figures of 561264, he “can improve on a recent fourth here” according to expert analysis.
The familiarity factor works in his favor as he faces horses he’s encountered before, potentially allowing better positioning through early fractions. Carmouche’s patient riding style suits horses needing improved trips, making this combination appealing at the odds.
Secondary Contenders
Launch Control (#6) – 3-1
Keri Brion’s five-year-old gelding is “making his second start off a 15-month layoff” which creates both opportunity and concern. The extended absence suggests fitness questions, but his inclusion in this competitive field indicates trainer confidence. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes the mount, bringing tactical experience to a horse that may need racing luck.
Uncle George (#8) – 5-2
Despite co-favoritism, the eight-year-old gelding presents concerns with a “Rider TBA” designation limiting confidence. His advanced age and recent form require careful evaluation, though his morning line suggests recent sharp work. Trainer Chris Englehart’s decision to enter without secured jockey creates uncertainty.
Longshot Analysis
Not For Hire (#3) – 5-1
George Weaver’s three-year-old gelding “finished midfield last start at Belmont at the Big A” but receives the benefit of weight relief at 118 pounds. Jose Lezcano’s tactical expertise could prove valuable if the pace sets up favorably. Weaver’s success with turf runners provides additional confidence despite recent moderate form.
Stormy Birthday (#5) – 8-1
This three-year-old gelding by Get Stormy shows form figures of 019542 and carries 120 pounds with Romero Maragh riding. The longer odds suggest recent form concerns, but his breeding indicates turf capability. Robert Ribaudo’s training provides steady preparation for allowance company.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong turf sprint distance typically produces moderate early fractions with tactical positioning crucial through the outer course’s configuration. Several horses show early tactical speed including King Puck and Master Freud, creating potential pace pressure that could benefit late-running types.
The firm turf conditions favor honest pace scenarios where early positioning advantages can be maintained through the stretch drive. With the rail at 12 feet, horses drawn inside maintain slight advantages if they can secure favorable early position.
Key Angles
Trainer Form: Miguel Clement’s success with turf sprinters provides King Puck with significant angle advantages. George Weaver’s consistent success with similar types makes Not For Hire interesting despite recent moderate form.
Jockey Combinations: The Rosario-Clement partnership brings proven success in turf sprint stakes company. Carmouche’s patient style suits Van Vollenhoven’s need for improved positioning.
Class Relief: Several horses, including King Puck and Van Vollenhoven, benefit from facing familiar competition levels after recent efforts.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: King Puck at 5-2 offers fair value based on trainer excellence and recent maiden score.
Value Play: Master Freud at 6-1 presents overlay potential given his 92 rating in this company.
Exacta Combinations: Key King Puck over Van Vollenhoven and Master Freud for combinations paying attractive dividends.
Selections
Win: King Puck (#1)
Place: Van Vollenhoven (#4)
Show: Master Freud (#2)
Exacta: 1 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4,6 with 2,3,4,6
King Puck represents the logical choice based on trainer expertise, recent maiden victory, and ideal jockey-trainer combination for six-furlong turf competition. Van Vollenhoven offers value based on expected trip improvement, while Master Freud’s rating suggests overlay potential at current odds.
Race 3 – 2:15 PM – $30,000 Maiden Claiming
The New York-bred maiden claiming event over 6½ furlongs presents several first-time starters and lightly raced contenders.
Key Contenders:
Army Proud (#6) earns Racing Dudes backing at 3-1 odds with Christopher Elliott riding for trainer Joe Sharp. The colt represents solid connections in this maiden company.
Dominican Thunder (#2) brings tactical speed under Manuel Franco for trainer Jose Jimenez in this competitive spot.
Selections: Army Proud (#6), Dominican Thunder (#2), Liberty Rising (#3)
Race 4 – 2:47 PM – $50,000 Starter Optional Claiming (Turf)
The fourth race presents an eight-horse starter optional claiming field over the classic 1⅛-mile turf route with a $58,000 purse. This race features horses that have started for a claiming price of $50,000 or less and have never won two races, creating a competitive field of proven turf routers. With the rail positioned at 18 feet, the race offers fair opportunities for all running styles across the expansive turf course.
Morning Line Analysis
The morning line shows Jurisprudence as the 5-2 favorite trained by Chad Brown, followed by Hamilton’s Way at 3-1 for Brad Cox. Lachaise sits at 5-1, while English Castle rounds out the top choices at 7-2. The competitive nature of the odds reflects the quality depth available at this claiming level.
Key Contenders
Hamilton’s Way (#7) – 3-1 ML
TimeformUS analysis specifically highlights this four-year-old gelding as a major threat, noting he “figures to attract some support off the recent trainer switch to Brad Cox, who does much better than this horse’s prior trainer”. This trainer change represents a significant upgrade, as Cox shows exceptional form with 15 wins from 65 starts (23% win rate) over the past 21 days.
Classified as the “Fastest Closer” in the field, Hamilton’s Way brings tactical versatility with Manuel Franco aboard. Cox’s success with turf routers and Franco’s tactical expertise create an appealing combination at fair odds. The four-year-old gelding carries 124 pounds and shows earnings of $339,700 from 18 career starts with a record of 1-4-4.
The recent switch to Cox’s barn suggests connections believe significant improvement remains available, particularly in route turf company where Cox excels. His patient closing style suits the 1⅛-mile distance perfectly, especially if early pace develops favorably.
Jurisprudence (#4) – 5-2 ML
Chad Brown’s four-year-old gelding by Constitution represents the morning line favorite based on proven class and trainer excellence. Brown shows outstanding recent form with 15 wins from 61 starts (25% win rate) over the past 21 days, demonstrating his continued dominance. The trainer’s turf expertise includes multiple Eclipse Award winners and championship-level success.
Rated as a “Fast Stalker,” Jurisprudence carries 124 pounds with Dylan Davis riding. His breeding by Constitution out of Nono Rose provides solid turf genetics, while his earnings of $84,240 from limited opportunities suggest untapped potential. Brown’s ability to improve horses in route turf company makes this combination formidable despite moderate career statistics.
Brown’s success at Belmont at the Big A includes leading multiple meets with exceptional strike rates on both dirt and turf surfaces. His tactical approach with turf routers often produces significant improvement in second and third starts for the barn.
Ennis Town (#2) – Stalker Style
Michael Trombetta’s three-year-old gelding brings youth and improvement potential to this veteran field. The gelding carries just 120 pounds with the weight advantage and shows tactical speed as a stalker type. Kendrick Carmouche’s patient riding style complements horses needing tactical positioning through route distances.
Recent form includes a start at Saratoga on September 1st in similar starter optional claiming company, suggesting the connections view this level as appropriate. Three-year-olds often show significant improvement from late summer into fall racing, making the age factor appealing against older competition.
Secondary Contenders
English Castle (#1) – 7-2 ML
Horacio De Paz’s four-year-old gelding shows consistent form as a “Fast Leader” type carrying 124 pounds. Ricardo Santana Jr. brings tactical experience, while De Paz shows solid recent form with 6 wins from 22 starts (27% win rate) over 21 days. The front-running style could prove effective if he can control fractions over the extended distance.
Lachaise (#6) – 5-1 ML
This five-year-old ridgling trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. represents the “Fastest Stalker” profile with Javier Castellano aboard. The veteran shows solid earnings of $285,800 from 8 career starts with a record of 1-2-3, suggesting consistent ability at this level. Castellano’s tactical expertise with route turf specialists provides additional confidence.
Longshot Analysis
Kulapat (#3) – 8-1 ML
William Mott’s three-year-old colt represents intriguing value as a “Slower Deep” closer carrying 120 pounds. The Hall of Fame trainer’s success with developing turf routers cannot be overlooked, especially with the significant weight advantage. Junior Alvarado’s tactical riding suits horses needing patient handling through route distances.
Adventurist (#8) – 8-1 ML
Linda Rice’s three-year-old colt shows the “Slower Closer” running style with Jose Lezcano riding. Rice demonstrates solid recent form with 10 wins from 48 starts (21% win rate) over 21 days. The combination brings proven success in similar company, making the longshot odds potentially attractive.
Pace Analysis
The 1⅛-mile turf distance typically produces moderate early fractions with tactical positioning crucial through the stretch drive. English Castle’s front-running tendencies could establish honest fractions, benefiting closers Hamilton’s Way and Kulapat. The presence of multiple stalking types including Jurisprudence and Lachaise creates competitive positioning through the middle stages.
The firm turf conditions favor horses with tactical speed who can secure good position without overexertion through the early stages. The 18-foot rail positioning provides ample room for late-running types to find racing room in the stretch drive.
Key Angles
Trainer Upgrades: Hamilton’s Way’s switch to Brad Cox represents the most significant angle in the race, combining proven route turf expertise with a horse showing previous ability.
Elite Trainer Form: Both Cox and Brown show exceptional recent statistics, providing confidence in their respective runners.
Age Factors: The three-year-olds Ennis Town and Kulapat carry weight advantages against older competition while potentially showing continued improvement.
Jockey-Trainer Combinations: Franco-Cox and Castellano-Joseph represent proven partnerships in route turf company.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: Hamilton’s Way at 3-1 offers excellent value based on the significant trainer upgrade and Cox’s proven success.
Value Overlay: Kulapat at 8-1 represents potential value given Mott’s expertise and the significant weight advantage.
Exacta Combinations: Key Hamilton’s Way over Jurisprudence, Lachaise, and Kulapat for attractive payoff potential.
Selections
Win: Hamilton’s Way (#7)
Place: Jurisprudence (#4)
Show: Lachaise (#6)
Exacta: 7 with 2,4,6,5
Trifecta: 7 with 2,4,6,5 with 1,2,4,5,6,8
Hamilton’s Way represents the logical choice based on the significant trainer upgrade to Brad Cox’s proven turf operation. The “Fastest Closer” running style suits the 1⅛-mile distance perfectly, especially with Franco’s tactical expertise guiding the gelding through what should be honest early fractions. Jurisprudence provides solid place value with Brown’s excellence, while Lachaise offers show appeal with Castellano’s route turf experience.
Race 5 – 3:20 PM – $50,000 Maiden Claiming (Turf)
This ten-horse maiden claiming affair on the outer turf presents numerous betting opportunities.
Key Contenders:
Pazz the Soy Sauce (#4) gets Racing Dudes backing at 7-2 odds with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding for trainer Thomas Morley.
Big Timer (#8) represents Daily Racing Form’s Mike Beer selection at 10-1 odds, citing strong breeding and recent barn form in New York. The colt is out of a dam who won on debut with an 87 Beyer and is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning turf sprinter Air Force Red.
Selections: Big Timer (#8), Pazz the Soy Sauce (#4), Hello Newman (#3)
Race 6 – 3:53 PM – $65,000 Starter Allowance
The sixth race features a competitive six-horse starter allowance field over 6½ furlongs on the main track. This $65,000 contest is restricted to horses that have started for a claiming price of $50,000 or less and have never won a race other than maiden or claiming. The race conditions favor proven sprinters looking to break through in allowance company, with non-winners since April 10, 2025 receiving a two-pound weight allowance.
Morning Line and Expert Forecasts
The morning line shows Bear Claw Necklace as the 2-1 favorite, followed by Trust Issues at 5-2. Three B’s sits at 4-1, while Uncle Jim rounds out the top choices at 5-1. Expert forecasts from Sporting Life list “Bear Claw Necklace (2/1), Trust Issues (5/2), Three B’s (4/1)” as the top three selections. The Irish Racing formscan notes: “BEAR CLAW NECKLACE narrowly missed out last time and could go one better. Trust Issues has been consistent in similar company and Uncle Jim is another to consider”.
Key Contenders Analysis
Trust Issues (#6) – 5-2 ML
Rob Atras’s four-year-old gelding represents the most compelling choice based on recent consistency and favorable class positioning. Rated as the “Fastest Stalker” in the field, Trust Issues shows impressive recent form with figures 614222. The gelding carries 123 pounds with Christopher Elliott aboard, bringing tactical expertise to a horse that excels in similar company.
Trust Issues shows exceptional consistency with career earnings of $353,290 from 15 starts, recording a 2-7-10 record (13% win, 67% in-the-money). His recent form includes consecutive second-place finishes at Belmont at the Big A in 6-furlong dirt sprints, demonstrating his affinity for today’s distance and surface. The gelding’s running style as a stalker suits the projected pace scenario perfectly.
Trainer Rob Atras shows solid recent statistics with 32 starts yielding 25% win rate and 56% in-the-money percentage. Elliott brings strong tactical riding with 131 mounts producing 15% win and 40% in-the-money rates. The combination represents proven success in similar starter allowance company.
Bear Claw Necklace (#2) – 2-1 ML
Saffie Joseph Jr.’s three-year-old colt earned morning line favoritism based on a near-miss last time out. The Lord Nelson colt carries 118 pounds with the weight allowance under Dylan Davis. Classified as a “Fast Leader,” Bear Claw Necklace shows tactical speed that could control early fractions.
The colt’s career record of 1-2-5 from 6 starts ($136,240 earned) includes strong place percentages of 17% win, 83% in-the-money. His breeding by Lord Nelson out of Goldrush Girl provides solid sprint genetics for dirt racing. Recent form includes a second-place finish in a 6.5-furlong dirt race at Saratoga, demonstrating readiness for today’s conditions.
Joseph shows excellent recent form with 56 starts producing 25% win rate and 66% in-the-money percentage. The trainer’s expertise with developing young horses in starter allowance company adds significant appeal. Davis brings steady tactical riding to complement the colt’s front-running style.
Three B’s (#1) – 4-1 ML
Linda Rice’s three-year-old colt brings proven recent success to this competitive field. The Collected colt shows career earnings of $296,760 from 11 starts with a record of 3-5-6 (27% win, 55% in-the-money). Jose Lezcano’s tactical expertise provides additional confidence in this proven partnership.
Classified as “Mid Pack Deep” style, Three B’s demonstrates closing ability that suits scenarios where early pace develops. His recent victory over Uncle Jim at Saratoga by 1¾ lengths in a 6-furlong dirt race establishes him as a major threat. The gelding shows 100% place and show percentages in his recent starts, indicating consistent current form.
Rice shows outstanding recent statistics with 108 starts producing 25% win rate and 56% in-the-money percentage. Lezcano brings proven success with 108 mounts yielding 20% win and 57% in-the-money rates. The combination represents proven success at this starter allowance level.
Secondary Contenders
Uncle Jim (#5) – 5-1 ML
Horacio De Paz’s three-year-old colt by City of Light shows solid credentials with career earnings of $285,850 from 9 starts. The colt carries 120 pounds with Kendrick Carmouche aboard, bringing tactical riding expertise. His running style as “Mid Pack Leads” provides versatility depending on pace development.
Recent form includes a third-place finish at Saratoga behind Three B’s, establishing the form line for today’s contest. The colt shows consistent ability with 33% win rate and 67% in-the-money percentage over limited opportunities.
Capt Jax Parrow (#4) – 9-2 ML
Orlando Noda’s three-year-old gelding brings Joel Rosario’s proven success to this competitive field. The Honest Mischief gelding shows career earnings of $84,160 from 7 starts with strong consistency. Classified as “Slowest Stalker,” he could benefit from honest early pace.
Recent form includes victory at Belmont at the Big A in a 6-furlong dirt race, demonstrating his affinity for today’s conditions. Rosario’s 23% win rate from limited recent mounts adds tactical expertise.
Longshot Analysis
Mozambique (#3) – 8-1 ML
Rudy Rodriguez’s three-year-old gelding represents the longest shot with solid recent victory credentials. The Goldencents gelding won his last start at Belmont at the Big A over 6.5 furlongs on dirt, establishing current form. His “Slowest Closer” style could benefit from honest early pace development.
Pace Analysis
The 6½-furlong sprint distance typically produces moderate early fractions with positioning crucial through the stretch drive. Bear Claw Necklace’s front-running tendencies should establish honest early pace, benefiting stalkers Trust Issues and closers Three B’s. The presence of multiple speed types creates competitive early positioning that should set up well for late-running horses.
The fast dirt surface favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position without overexertion through the opening quarter-mile. The competitive nature of the field suggests honest pace development throughout.
Key Angles
Consistent Form: Trust Issues’ consecutive runner-up finishes in similar company provide the most reliable recent form.
Class Relief: Several horses including Bear Claw Necklace benefit from starter allowance positioning after tougher recent competition.
Trainer Excellence: Linda Rice’s 25% recent win rate and Rob Atras’s 25% success rate represent proven form cycles.
Track Specialization: Multiple horses show specific success at Belmont at the Big A, including Trust Issues and Three B’s.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: Trust Issues at 5-2 offers fair value based on consistent recent form and tactical advantages.
Value Overlay: Three B’s at 4-1 presents excellent value given recent victory over Uncle Jim and proven Rice-Lezcano partnership.
Exacta Key: Trust Issues over Bear Claw Necklace and Three B’s creates attractive combinations.
Selections
Win: Trust Issues (#6)
Place: Three B’s (#1)
Show: Bear Claw Necklace (#2)
Exacta: 6 with 1,2,4
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,4 with 1,2,4,5
Trust Issues represents the logical choice based on superior recent consistency in similar starter allowance company. His “Fastest Stalker” running style perfectly suits the projected pace scenario with multiple speed horses likely pressing early fractions. The Elliott-Atras combination brings proven tactical expertise to a gelding showing career-best current form. Three B’s offers excellent value based on his recent victory over Uncle Jim and the proven Rice-Lezcano partnership’s success in similar spots.
Race 7 – 4:23 PM – $35,000 Claiming (Turf)
This twelve-horse claiming event for fillies and mares over 1 1/16 miles on turf presents numerous betting angles.
Key Contenders:
Vino Samara (#10) gets Racing Dudes backing at 8-1 odds with Jose Lezcano riding for trainer Mark Hennig.
Bunny Honey (#1) represents Daily Racing Form’s Mike Beer longshot selection at 15-1, noting the mare dropped to this level two starts back before being vanned off, suggesting recent racing issues weren’t serious. The return to this claiming level after tough allowance company could prove beneficial.
Selections: Vino Samara (#10), Lotus Petal (#2), Bunny Honey (#1)
Race 8 – 4:53 PM – $85,000 Maiden Special Weight (Turf)
The card concludes with an eleven-horse maiden special weight contest for two-year-old fillies over six furlongs on the outer turf course. This $85,000 event represents one of the most valuable juvenile filly opportunities on today’s card, with the winner earning $53,550. The rail positioning at 12 feet provides fair ground for all running styles across the expansive turf course.
Morning Line and Expert Analysis
The morning line shows Delightful Darling as the 3-1 favorite, followed by Raffinato (GB) at 5-1. Chatelot and Channelview both sit at 6-1, while Belarosa rounds out the top choices at 8-1. The competitive nature of the odds reflects the wide-open quality typical of juvenile maiden contests.
TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona selects “6-2-4-9” (Immortal Poet, Endless Horizons, Delightful Darling, Bramble Blast), while NYRA analyst Acacia Clement picks “11-6-4-9” (Channelview, Immortal Poet, Delightful Darling, Bramble Blast). Andy Serling’s selections favor “9-1-2-4” (Bramble Blast, Belarosa, Endless Horizons, Delightful Darling).
Key Contenders Analysis
Delightful Darling (#4) – 3-1 ML
Mark Casse’s two-year-old filly earned morning line favoritism based on consistent placed efforts that suggest breakthrough performance awaits. Irish Racing’s formscan notes: “DELIGHTFUL DARLING has been knocking on the door with three placed efforts and looks ready to break through”. The daughter of Flameaway out of Darling’s Darling carries breeding by Bernardini that provides solid turf genetics.
BettingNews analysis shows Delightful Darling with career statistics of 3 starts producing 0-2-3 record with 100% show percentage and $55,000 earned. Her recent form includes consistent placings at Saratoga in turf sprints, establishing her as the “Fastest Stalker” in today’s field. The filly’s tactical positioning suits six-furlong turf competition perfectly.
Dylan Davis brings proven success riding for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse, whose expertise developing two-year-old fillies includes multiple Breeders’ Cup champions. The partnership represents proven success in similar maiden special weight company.
Raffinato (GB) (#3) – 5-1 ML
Brad Cox’s European-bred filly represents significant upside potential as a first-time starter from a trainer excelling with juvenile turf runners. The daughter of Blue Point (IRE) out of Dear Dancer brings proven European turf breeding to North American racing. Cox’s success includes multiple Breeders’ Cup victories and championship-level performance with developing juveniles.
Manuel Franco’s tactical expertise provides additional confidence for a filly making her career debut. The Franco-Cox partnership brings proven success in similar maiden special weight contests, particularly with European-bred fillies transitioning to American racing. Stonestreet Stables’ ownership adds quality connections.
Chatelot (#5) – 6-1 ML
Miguel Clement’s filly by War Front out of Miss Chatelaine represents appealing breeding combined with proven trainer expertise. Clement’s recent success includes winning the Grade 1 Pilgrim Stakes with Bottas, demonstrating his ability to develop juvenile turf runners. The trainer “sends out horse-for-course duo in pair of turf sprint stakes,” indicating specific expertise with this type.
Joel Rosario brings championship-level riding to a filly carrying Highland Yard LLC ownership. The War Front breeding provides exceptional turf genetics, as War Front offspring consistently excel in juvenile turf competition. Clement’s specific success with two-year-old turf runners makes this combination appealing at current odds.
Secondary Contenders
Channelview (#11) – 6-1 ML
George Weaver’s filly earned backing from expert handicapper Acacia Clement as the top selection. The daughter of Liam’s Map out of Introduced carries breeding that suggests turf capability. Weaver’s consistent success with developing turf runners provides confidence, particularly with juvenile fillies.
Eric Cancel brings tactical riding expertise to a filly representing multiple ownership partners. Weaver’s ability to improve horses from debut to second starts makes this filly interesting despite limited public form.
Bramble Blast (#9) – 8-1 ML
Michael Dini’s filly earned selections from both Andy Serling and David Aragona, suggesting hidden form appeal. The daughter of Charlatan (USA) out of Bella Gattino provides solid American breeding. Irish Racing notes she “placed in a maiden race two back,” establishing previous competitive form.
Jaime Rodriguez brings consistent tactical riding to a filly owned by Ballybrit Stable LLC. The trainer’s patient development approach with juveniles could produce improvement from recent efforts.
Longshot Analysis
Belarosa (#1) – 8-1 ML
Rudy Rodriguez’s filly earned backing from Andy Serling as a key selection. The daughter of Charlatan (USA) out of Bella Gattino shows recent form including a third-place finish at Saratoga. BettingNews rates her as “Fast Stalker” with career earnings of $11,000 from limited opportunities.
Jose Lezcano’s tactical expertise provides additional appeal for a filly showing recent improvement. Rodriguez’s success developing juvenile fillies makes the longer odds potentially attractive.
Immortal Poet (GB) (#6) – 8-1 ML
The European-bred filly earned top selection from TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona. Ricardo Santana Jr. brings championship-level riding to Robert Falcone Jr.’s trainee. The filly’s European breeding suggests untapped potential in maiden company.
Pace Analysis
The six-furlong turf sprint distance typically produces moderate early fractions with tactical positioning crucial through the final furlong. Multiple stalking types including Delightful Darling and Belarosa should create competitive early positioning. The firm turf conditions favor horses with tactical speed who can secure good position without overexertion.
The outer turf course with 12-foot rail positioning provides ample room for late-developing fillies to find racing room in the stretch drive. The competitive nature of juvenile maiden contests often produces honest pace development throughout.
Key Angles
Proven Form: Delightful Darling’s three consecutive placed efforts provide the most reliable recent form in a field lacking extensive experience.
Elite Trainer Debut: Raffinato (GB) represents Brad Cox’s proven excellence with first-time turf starters.
Expert Consensus: Multiple handicappers selecting Bramble Blast and Immortal Poet suggests hidden form appeal.
Breeding Advantages: War Front (Chatelot) and Blue Point IRE (Raffinato GB) represent superior turf genetics.
Wagering Analysis
Win Bet: Delightful Darling at 3-1 offers fair value based on consistent placed efforts and Casse’s expertise.
Value Overlay: Bramble Blast at 8-1 presents excellent value given multiple expert selections.
First-Timer Special: Raffinato (GB) at 5-1 represents Cox’s proven success with European-bred debuts.
Selections
Win: Delightful Darling (#4)
Place: Raffinato (GB) (#3)
Show: Chatelot (#5)
Exacta: 4 with 3,5,9,11
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5,9,11 with 1,3,5,6,9,11
Delightful Darling represents the logical choice based on consistent placed efforts indicating readiness to breakthrough. Her “Fastest Stalker” running style perfectly suits the competitive pace scenario likely to develop with multiple speed types engaged early. The Casse-Davis partnership brings proven championship-level expertise to a filly showing career-best current form. Raffinato (GB) offers excellent value as a Cox-trained European import making her debut, while Chatelot provides show appeal with Clement’s proven success developing juvenile turf fillies.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose Lezcano rides four horses on today’s card, including Three B’s (#1) in Race 6 and Vino Samara (#10) in Race 7, both receiving expert backing. Lezcano shows strong statistics with 108 mounts, achieving 20% win and 57% in-the-money percentages.
Kendrick Carmouche handles three mounts today, including key contenders Fever Night (#3) in Race 1 and Ennis Town (#2) in Race 4. His tactical riding style suits both runners’ profiles.
Christopher Elliott rides three horses, including longshot Army Proud (#6) in Race 3 and favored Trust Issues (#6) in Race 6. Elliott shows 15% win and 40% in-the-money statistics.
Ricardo Santana Jr. handles four mounts, including Cocktailsnkringle (#5) in Race 1 and Pazz the Soy Sauce (#4) in Race 5.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice sends out four runners today, including both Fever Night (#3) and Derek’s Law (#4) in the opening race. Rice shows excellent recent form with 8 wins from 43 starts (18%) over the past 21 days.
Chad Brown saddles Jurisprudence (#4) in Race 4, always formidable with turf routers.
Brad Cox trains Hamilton’s Way (#7) in Race 4 and Raffinato (GB) (#3) in Race 8, representing quality barn form.
Michael Trombetta conditions Ennis Town (#2) in Race 4, dropping the gelding into favorable company.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Single-Race Value Plays
Race 1: Magni (#1) at 9-1 or greater offers exceptional value based on TimeformUS analysis, representing significant class improvement potential.
Race 5: Big Timer (#8) at 10-1 provides excellent breeding-based value with strong connections showing recent New York form.
Race 7: Bunny Honey (#1) at 15-1 represents class relief value after difficult allowance company.
Multi-Race Strategies
Daily Double (Races 1-2): Magni/King Puck offers significant payoff potential combining a longshot with a logical favorite.
Pick 3 (Races 6-8): Trust Issues/Vino Samara/Delightful Darling provides solid value combining expert selections across the final three races.
Exacta and Trifecta Opportunities
Race 1 Exacta: Key Magni (#1) over/under Fever Night (#3) and Cocktailsnkringle (#5) for value combinations.
Race 6 Exacta: Box Trust Issues (#6) with Three B’s (#1) for competitive sprint finish.
Today’s card offers numerous opportunities for skilled handicappers, with several value plays identified by expert analysis providing excellent betting angles across the eight-race program.
