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Today’s nine-race card at Belmont at the Big A features a competitive mix of allowance races, maiden events, and claiming contests with some of New York’s top trainers and jockeys. The fall meet continues with strong fields and quality racing conditions expected throughout the afternoon.
Race Day Overview
Belmont at the Big A hosts a strong Friday afternoon card with purses from $38,000 to $90,000 across nine races. The program features both turf and dirt races, offering opportunities for seasoned handicappers and casual bettors to find value in competitive fields.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with temperatures in the mid-60s for today’s races. The main track is expected to be fast, with the outer turf course firm, although rail positions vary by race, with the turf rail set at 24 feet for turf events. Recent track trends show that the main track has been playing fairly, with no significant bias toward any particular running style.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Allowance (6 Furlongs Outer Turf)
Key Contenders: Silsbee emerges as the morning line favorite at 6-5 odds with trainer George Weaver and jockey Manuel Franco aboard. This three-year-old filly trained by one of the meet’s most consistent conditioners represents solid value in the opener.
Secondary Choices: Nina Kay (8-5) from the Linda Rice barn deserves serious consideration, while Intentious at 2-1 morning line odds offers potential value for trainer David Duggan.
Longshots: One Last Knock at 4-1 could offer value if the pace sets up favorably for her closing kick.
Pace Analysis: The turf sprint should see moderate early fractions with several speed types in the field, setting up potential for closers.
Selections: Silsbee win, Nina Kay place, Intentious show.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders: Diamond Life stands out as the 9-5 morning line choice for trainer Michelle Giangiulio with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. The colt has shown consistent early speed in previous starts.
Secondary Choices: Red Fern represents solid value at 7-2 for trainer Michelle Nevin.
Pace Analysis: Expect a contested early pace with several first-time starters adding unknown elements.
Selections: Diamond Life win, Red Fern place.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders: Pinky Brier enters as the even-money favorite for trainer Michael Maker with Flavien Prat riding. This combination represents one of the day’s strongest plays.
Secondary Choices: Taparoo at 7-2 offers value as a potential upset candidate.
Selections: Pinky Brier win, Taparoo place.
Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming (1 3/16 Miles Outer Turf)
This competitive allowance optional claiming event over the marathon distance of 1 3/16 miles on the outer turf features a stellar field of nine older horses. With the rail at 24 feet, the race presents an excellent test of stamina and class among seasoned turf performers.
Key Contenders
Trikari (7-2 ML) emerges as the standout selection for trainer H. Graham Motion and jockey John Velazquez. The four-year-old colt brings impressive credentials as a Grade 1 winner who captured the 2024 Belmont Derby at this very course. After finishing third in Keeneland’s Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) behind accomplished older horses Carl Spackler and Integration, Trikari returns to Belmont at the Big A for his first start off a layoff. Motion specifically chose this spot for “class relief” after three consecutive tough assignments, and the 1 1/8-mile distance appears ideal for this maturing colt. His proven ability at the track and distance combination makes him the logical choice.
Activist Investing (GB) (3-1 ML) represents Chad Brown’s formidable stable with Flavien Prat in the irons. The five-year-old British-bred has been running consistently solid races, including recent second-place efforts in competitive spots. Brown’s exceptional record with turf horses and the Prat partnership provides significant confidence, though the horse has yet to break through for a signature win this year.
Vesting (IRE) (9-2 ML) brings strong recent form for trainer Michael Maker with Joel Rosario riding. The four-year-old gelding has flourished since moving to Maker’s barn in June 2025, earning a career-best 103 speed figure when winning an allowance race at 1½ miles. His victory at Saratoga earlier this year demonstrates his ability to handle quality competition on turf. The Irish-bred appears to be hitting his peak form at the right time.
Secondary Choices
Catch a Wave (5-2 ML) represents another strong Chad Brown entry with Manuel Franco. The four-year-old gelding by Curlin captured an allowance race at this exact course and distance in July 2024, demonstrating his affinity for the conditions. Recent form shows consistent efforts with a second-place finish over this course in June and a fourth at Saratoga in July. His proven ability at the trip and venue keeps him competitive.
Dear Dad (4-1 ML) enters off an impressive two-race winning streak for trainer Mark Casse with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. The five-year-old Florida-bred has been nearly flawless this year, never finishing worse than third in seven starts. His recent victories include a Colonial Downs score in August and a Gulfstream triumph in June, both in optional claiming company. The consistent form and Casse’s expertise with turf horses make him a legitimate threat.
Longshots and Value Plays
Strong Quality (35-1 ML) represents the second Mark Casse entry but appears outclassed at this level based on recent performances. The six-year-old has struggled in 2025, finishing sixth in his last two starts at Belmont at the Big A and Keeneland. While the veteran shows occasional flashes, current form suggests he’s overmatched.
Pace Analysis
The marathon distance should produce moderate early fractions with several horses possessing tactical speed. Trikari typically shows more restraint early and relies on a sustained drive , while Activist Investing and Catch a Wave can adapt to various pace scenarios. The long stretch run favors horses with proven stamina and finishing kick.
Key Angles
The Chad Brown factor looms large with two quality entries in Activist Investing and Catch a Wave, though both may compromise each other’s chances. Motion’s strategic placement of Trikari after his Grade 1 efforts suggests confidence in the class relief. The course-and-distance angle strongly favors Catch a Wave’s 2024 victory at these exact conditions.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Trikari represents the best value at 7-2 morning line odds given his class, connections, and proven ability at the venue.
Exacta Play: Key Trikari on top with Vesting and Activist Investing underneath for solid payout potential.
Trifecta Value: Include Dear Dad as the third key based on his current winning form and Casse’s turf expertise.
Final Selection
Win: Trikari
Place: Vesting
Show: Activist Investing
Trikari’s Grade 1 class, proven course-and-distance ability, and strategic placement off a layoff make him the standout choice in this competitive allowance field.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile Dirt)
This competitive maiden special weight event for two-year-olds at one mile on the main track features a stellar field of eight juveniles with impressive connections. The $85,000 purse reflects the quality of this field, with several colts from prominent stables making their debut or looking for their first career victory.
Key Contenders
Credit History (3-1 ML) stands out as the logical choice for Hall of Fame trainer William Mott with Junior Alvarado aboard. Mott maintains an exceptional record with maiden special weight runners, showing a 46% win-place-show percentage in 2025 across all divisions. The combination of Mott’s proven expertise with two-year-olds and Alvarado’s tactical skills makes this colt the morning line favorite for good reason.
Paladin (5-2 ML) represents Chad Brown’s powerful stable with Flavien Prat in the irons. The Gun Runner colt commanded significant attention at the yearling sales, selling for $1.9 million at Saratoga. Brown has excelled with expensive purchases and debuts, often showing his juveniles ready to win first time out. The partnership with Prat, one of the nation’s premier riders, adds considerable confidence to this debut.
Gordy (7-2 ML) enters for trainer John Terranova II with Dylan Davis. Terranova has established himself as a multiple graded stakes-winning trainer with solid juvenile credentials. The morning line suggests solid support for this debuting colt who could provide value at the current odds.
Todd Pletcher’s Double Entry
Renegade (9-2 ML) brings the expertise of Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez riding. Pletcher’s two-year-old record at major meets has been phenomenal, with 14 wins from 57 starters at Saratoga alone in 2025. In maiden special weight races specifically, he’s achieved 11 wins from 47 starts at the spa meet. His recent success with colts like Ted Noffey and It’s Our Time demonstrates his current form with juveniles.
Geostoblame (10-1 ML) represents Pletcher’s second entry with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. While at longer odds, Pletcher’s depth of talent often produces surprises from his seemingly secondary choices.
Secondary Choices
Hedge Ratio (8-1 ML) brings Chad Brown’s second entry with Manuel Franco. The Speightstown colt possesses excellent breeding for this distance and surface. Brown’s ability to have multiple live contenders in the same race makes both of his entries dangerous.
Good Illusion (12-1 ML) represents trainer Danny Gargan with Joel Rosario. The Good Magic colt finished eighth in a Saratoga debut but that effort came at 6½ furlongs, and the step up to a mile could benefit his running style. Gargan’s success with Good Magic offspring, including Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, adds intrigue to this longshot.
Longshots
Silent Scheme (15-1 ML) enters for trainer Mark Hennig with Jose Lezcano. The Charlatan colt faces a significant class test in his debut, though Hennig has shown competence with two-year-olds throughout his career.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile distance should produce moderate early fractions with several speed types likely to contest the early pace. Pletcher’s runners typically show tactical speed while Brown’s horses often display versatility in their running styles. The race should develop into a sustained drive from the half-mile pole, favoring horses with stamina and class.
Key Angles
The trainer angles heavily favor this field, with Mott, Brown, and Pletcher combining for exceptional recent form with two-year-olds. Debut patterns show Brown excelling with first-time starters, particularly expensive purchases like Paladin. Distance factors favor colts with stamina breeding, making the Gun Runner (Paladin) and Good Magic (Good Illusion) bloodlines appealing.
Expert Opinions
TimeformUS expert David Aragona selects 5-7-8-6 (Hedge Ratio, Paladin, Gordy, Silent Scheme) while Andy Serling from TalkingHorses prefers 8-7-3-4 (Gordy, Paladin, Renegade, Credit History). Both experts favor the Brown and Pletcher entries while showing respect for Credit History’s Mott connection.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Credit History at 3-1 offers solid value given Mott’s exceptional record and the quality jockey.
Exacta Play: Key Credit History on top with Paladin and Gordy underneath for strong payout potential.
Trifecta Strategy: Include Renegade as the third key given Pletcher’s current hot streak with two-year-olds.
Longshot Special: Good Illusion at 12-1 could provide significant value if the mile distance suits his running style better than his debut effort.
Final Selections
Win: Credit History
Place: Paladin
Show: Gordy
Longshot Play: Good Illusion
Credit History’s combination of class connections, tactical speed, and Mott’s proven expertise with maiden special weight runners makes him the logical choice in this competitive juvenile field.
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming (1 Mile Dirt)
Key Contenders: Good Cop enters as the 2-1 favorite from Todd Pletcher’s barn. Pletcher’s recent success at the meet makes this a strong play.
Selections: Good Cop win.
Race 7 – Claiming (7 Furlongs Dirt)
Key Contenders: Social Hour represents Richard Dutrow Jr. at 7-2 with Flavien Prat aboard.
Secondary Choices: Charlie’s Express offers value at 6-1 for trainer Gregory Sacco.
Selections: Social Hour win, Charlie’s Express place.
Race 8 – Allowance (6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt)
This competitive allowance sprint for three-year-olds and upward over 6½ furlongs on the dirt presents one of the day’s most intriguing betting races. The $88,000 purse attracts a field where several horses are stepping up significantly in class after recent wins.
Key Contenders
Trust Fund (5-2 ML) enters as the morning line favorite for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. The four-year-old gelding brings impressive recent form with three consecutive victories while stepping up in class each time. However, expert David Aragona notes concern about the continuing rise in class as “it’s tough for horses to keep winning as they face stronger company”. Trust Fund’s consistency and the powerful Pletcher-Carmouche combination make him the logical choice despite the class concerns.
Notah (3-1 ML) represents trainer Michael Maker with Ricardo Santana Jr. riding. The five-year-old horse comes off a victory against a decent $50,000 claiming group but faces questions about the conditions of that win. TimeformUS expert David Aragona observed that “the inside part of the track was a minor advantage that day, and he also got to set a very slow pace”. Maker’s expertise with older horses and recent strong form at the meet provide confidence, though the pace scenario may not be as favorable here.
Cultivate (9-5 ML) brings the formidable Chad Brown stable with Flavien Prat aboard. The three-year-old made an impressive debut, surviving a quick early pace to graduate. However, Aragona noted reservations about “the field he beat” in that maiden win. Brown’s exceptional record with developing three-year-olds and the tactical brilliance of Prat make this colt dangerous despite the class jump.
The Comeback Stories
Silo Ridge (8-1 ML) emerges as TimeformUS expert David Aragona’s top selection at generous morning line odds for trainer Linda Rice with Jose Lezcano. The five-year-old gelding “once showed the talent to beat a field like this” but went off form earlier in the season for Bill Mott before finding success in softer spots. Aragona likes that “Rice is bringing him back in a more ambitious spot, which can often be a good sign for this barn”. Rice’s ability to revitalize claimed horses and Silo Ridge’s favorable outside draw away from other speed types make him an intriguing value play.
Ican (5-1 ML) represents the return of trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. with Manuel Franco. The three-year-old colt showed considerable potential earlier in the season, including strong performances in stakes company. However, the 10-month layoff raises questions as “Rick Dutrow’s runners tend to need a start off breaks like this”. Despite the layoff concerns, expert Andy Serling makes Ican his top selection, suggesting the talent level remains high enough to overcome the rust factor.
Secondary Choices
On the Level (12-1 ML) comes off a visually impressive maiden victory for trainer Keri Brion with Jaime Rodriguez. The three-year-old Classic Empire colt earned his first career win in convincing fashion. However, Aragona notes this represents “stepping way up in class” from maiden special weight to open allowance competition. Brion’s solid record and the colt’s improving form provide hope, though the class jump appears significant.
Longshots
Mike’s Magic (15-1 ML) represents the longest shot on the board for trainer Jane Cibelli with Ruben Silvera. The three-year-old Frosted gelding has been competitive at lower levels but faces a significant class test. Cibelli has shown recent success with her stable, including a 42% win rate over the last 21 days. While the class jump appears substantial, the morning line odds provide potential value if the pace scenario develops favorably.
Pace Analysis
The 6½-furlong distance should produce moderate early fractions with several speed types entered. Trust Fund and Cultivate both show tactical early speed, while Silo Ridge’s outside draw positions him well to avoid early traffic. The pace should develop into a sustained drive from the quarter pole, favoring horses with proven class and finishing ability.
Expert Opinions and Angles
TimeformUS expert David Aragona selects 6-4-5-1 (Silo Ridge, Ican, Trust Fund, Cultivate) and emphasizes Silo Ridge as fair value “at 5-1 or greater”. TalkingHorses expert Andy Serling prefers 4-6-5-1 (Ican, Silo Ridge, Trust Fund, Cultivate), showing confidence in the comeback horses.
Key Angles
Trainer patterns favor Pletcher with recent success, Rice with claimed horses returning in ambitious spots, and Dutrow with talented horses returning from layoffs. Class considerations suggest Trust Fund faces his toughest test while others step up significantly. Pace scenarios should favor horses with tactical speed and proven finishing ability.
Wagering Strategy
Win Bet: Silo Ridge at 8-1 morning line offers excellent value as the expert’s top choice with favorable pace positioning.
Exacta Strategy: Key Silo Ridge and Trust Fund in exacta combinations, as both represent different but compelling angles.
Trifecta Value: Include Ican as the talented comeback story with upside despite the layoff.
Superfecta Longshot: Mike’s Magic at 15-1 provides potential value if the pace sets up favorably for closers.
Final Selections
Win: Silo Ridge (Value Play)
Place: Trust Fund
Show: Ican
Longshot: Mike’s Magic
Silo Ridge’s combination of proven class, expert endorsement, favorable pace positioning, and generous odds make him the standout selection in this competitive allowance sprint.
Race 9 – Claiming (6 Furlongs Outer Turf)
Key Contenders: Derek’s Law emerges as the 2-1 morning line favorite for trainer Linda Rice. My Life Story represents Michael Maker at 3-1 with Flavien Prat.
Selections: Derek’s Law win, My Life Story place.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Flavien Prat continues his strong form at the meet and rides several key contenders including Pinky Brier (Race 3), Activist Investing (Race 4), and My Life Story (Race 9). His tactical versatility makes him a key rider to follow.
Manuel Franco partners with top trainers on multiple mounts including Silsbee (Race 1), showing his continued prominence in New York racing.
Ricardo Santana Jr. brings strong recent form to his mounts and offers good value combinations.
Kendrick Carmouche teams with successful trainers on Diamond Life (Race 2) and Trust Fund (Race 8), making both solid win candidates.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Todd Pletcher tied for the recent Saratoga training title and brings strong form to today’s card. His runners Good Cop (Race 6) and Trust Fund (Race 8) merit serious consideration.
Chad Brown shared the Saratoga title with Pletcher and sends out quality in Activist Investing (Race 4) and Cultivate (Race 8). Brown’s turf runners consistently perform well.
Michael Maker operates multiple quality runners including Pinky Brier (Race 3), Notah (Race 8), and My Life Story (Race 9).
Linda Rice made her presence known during the Saratoga meet and continues strong form with Nina Kay (Race 1) and Derek’s Law (Race 9).
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bets: Trust Fund (Race 8) offers excellent value at 5-2 odds with strong recent form and top connections. Pinky Brier (Race 3) at even money represents a solid foundation bet.
Exacta Values: Race 8 exacta combinations using Trust Fund with Notah and Cultivate provide strong value opportunities. Race 1 exacta using Silsbee over Nina Kay and Intentious offers reasonable payouts.
Pick 4 Strategy: Focus on the late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) using Good Cop, multiple horses in Race 7, Trust Fund, and Derek’s Law as singles with value combinations in the middle legs.
Daily Double Opportunities: The Race 7-8 daily double linking Social Hour or Charlie’s Express with Trust Fund provides attractive payout potential.
