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Thursday’s eight-race card at Belmont at the Big A presents an intriguing mix of maiden events, claiming races, and highlighted by the $175,000 Grade 3 Matron Stakes in Race 5. The program features opportunities for both seasoned handicappers and casual racing fans, with competitive fields throughout the afternoon and early evening sessions. Track conditions are expected to remain favorable with dirt listed as Fast and turf as Firm for the start of racing.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current conditions at Belmont at the Big A show mostly cloudy skies with temperatures expected to reach the mid-70s by post time. The forecast indicates minimal precipitation chances throughout the racing program, with only light winds from the southeast. The main track is rated Fast while both turf courses maintain Firm conditions. These stable conditions should favor versatile runners across all surfaces, with no significant weather-related adjustments expected to the scheduled program.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming Fillies (6 Furlongs Dirt) – 1:10 PM
Key Contenders: Coola Boola represents the powerful George Weaver stable and draws Hall of Fame jockey Manuel Franco, creating an attractive combination for this maiden claiming event. The filly shows tactical speed that could prove effective in this compact field.
Secondary Choices: Peace of Gold and Rouge Grandeur both represent the James Ferraro barn, suggesting stable confidence in this spot. Rest Ashore brings experience from the Jorge Duarte Jr. operation and could factor at a price.
Longshots to Consider: Oscar Bound enters from the Melanie Giddings stable as a potential overlay, though the also-eligible status creates uncertainty.
Pace Analysis: The race appears moderately paced with several fillies showing early tactical speed. The pace should favor closers in the latter stages.
Wagering Angles: Focus on exacta combinations using the Ferraro and Weaver runners, with particular attention to Franco’s mount Coola Boola as a single in exotic wagers.
Selections: Win: Coola Boola; Place: Peace of Gold; Show: Rouge Grandeur
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (1 1/16 Miles) – 1:40 PM
Key Contenders: Underbidder represents Chad Brown’s powerful turf operation with Flavien Prat aboard, creating a formidable combination. Brown’s 26 wins from 98 starts over the past 21 days demonstrate exceptional current form. Jubilee Parade brings the Hall of Fame credentials of William Mott with Junior Alvarado, another proven turf combination.
Secondary Choices: Omaha Storm connects with John Velazquez for Mark Hennig, while Bellamy represents Todd Pletcher’s stable with Kendrick Carmouche. Both trainers show solid recent form statistics.
Longshots to Consider: Copa de Plata from Mark Casse’s barn could surprise at a price, particularly with the trainer’s proven ability with young turf runners.
Pace Analysis: The race sets up with moderate early pace, favoring tactical runners who can position themselves for late strikes on the firm turf.
Wagering Angles: Key the Brown and Mott runners in horizontal wagers, with special emphasis on the Prat/Brown combination.
Selections: Win: Underbidder; Place: Jubilee Parade; Show: Bellamy
Race 3 – Claiming Race (7 Furlongs Dirt) – 2:10 PM
Key Contenders: Crushed It shows morning line favoritism at 5/2 and brings the versatility of multiple distance experience. Flying Liam represents value at 3/1 morning line odds for Anthony Margotta Jr.’s stable with Junior Alvarado.
Secondary Choices: Tarpaulin offers potential as a lightly raced 3-year-old for Orlando Noda, while Celestial Glaze brings the proven claiming expertise of Richard Dutrow Jr..
Longshots to Consider: Tahoe Sunrise at 12/1 morning line could provide value for Norman Casse’s operation with John Velazquez aboard.
Pace Analysis: The pace appears contentious with several early speed types, potentially setting up closing opportunities.
Wagering Angles: Consider betting against the morning line favorite with value plays on Flying Liam and longer shots.
Selections: Win: Flying Liam; Place: Crushed It; Show: Celestial Glaze
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (1 1/16 Miles) – 2:40 PM
Key Contenders: Special Envoy represents Chad Brown with Flavien Prat, continuing the powerful combination that has dominated recent turf racing. Epic Desire brings Todd Pletcher’s turf expertise with John Velazquez providing the riding tactics.
Secondary Choices: Chambersville connects with Javier Castellano for Kenneth McPeek, who shows 14 wins from 57 recent starts. Oban offers Pletcher a second chance with Kendrick Carmouche aboard.
Longshots to Consider: Senior Lender provides a second Brown entry with morning line odds potentially offering value.
Pace Analysis: The large field suggests moderate pace scenarios with opportunities for tactical runners to excel.
Wagering Angles: Focus on the Brown and Pletcher runners in exacta and trifecta combinations.
Selections: Win: Special Envoy; Place: Epic Desire; Show: Chambersville
Race 5 – Grade 3 Matron Stakes (6 Furlongs Turf) – 3:10 PM
The Grade 3 Matron Stakes represents the featured event on Thursday’s card, bringing together 12 talented 2-year-old fillies in a competitive sprint on Belmont at the Big A’s outer turf course. The race offers crucial Breeders’ Cup points and provides an important stepping stone toward year-end championship honors for the juvenile filly division.
Key Contenders Analysis
Snow Face Princess (6) – 122 lbs – Flavien Prat/Steven Asmussen
Morning Line: Even money favorite
Snow Face Princess emerges as the logical choice based on proven stakes-level accomplishments at Saratoga. The daughter of Midshipman captured back-to-back victories at the Spa, winning a maiden special weight on July 30 by impressive margins, then returning on August 17 to score again with Flavien Prat aboard. Her recent form includes a competitive second-place finish in the Untapable Stakes at Kentucky Downs on September 7, where she pressed the pace before being outfinished by Quiet Street. Steven Asmussen’s 26.4% win percentage with juvenile fillies this season creates additional confidence. The Prat/Asmussen combination has proven especially effective on turf surfaces, with the Hall of Fame jockey providing tactical versatility from any position.
Should’ve (4) – 120 lbs – Joel Rosario/Wesley Ward
Morning Line: 7/2
Wesley Ward’s filly brings impressive debut credentials from Kentucky Downs, where she dominated a competitive maiden field. Ward’s expertise with precocious 2-year-olds creates significant appeal, particularly given his proven ability to have juveniles ready for major stakes assignments early in their careers. The trainer’s recent success with Running Away in graded stakes company demonstrates his current form with developing fillies. Joel Rosario’s 17.8% win percentage at the current meet adds tactical advantages, especially his ability to judge pace scenarios effectively. The 4-pound weight allowance for non-winners of two races provides additional appeal in this competitive field.
Royal Testament (8) – 122 lbs – Eric Cancel/George Weaver
Morning Line: 6/1
George Weaver’s homebred filly represents local interests with strong regional connections. Her victory at Colonial Downs showcased tactical speed and finishing ability under Eric Cancel’s guidance. Weaver’s current meet statistics show consistent competitiveness across multiple divisions. The trainer’s proven ability with stakes-level competitors creates optimism for continued improvement in graded company. Cancel’s 11.4% win percentage demonstrates steady reliability, particularly valuable in stakes situations requiring patient tactical rides.
Final Accord (5) – 120 lbs – Junior Alvarado/Mark Casse
Morning Line: 8/1
Mark Casse’s entry brings Hall of Fame credentials and a recent debut victory at Woodbine. The trainer’s approaching 4,000th career victory demonstrates sustained excellence across multiple decades. His proven success with juvenile fillies includes Breeders’ Cup victories and Eclipse Award winners. Junior Alvarado’s 14.8% win percentage provides tactical expertise, particularly his ability to position horses effectively in large fields. The 4-pound weight allowance enhances competitiveness against more experienced rivals.
Bella Knows (12) – 120 lbs – Manuel Franco/Brad Cox
Morning Line: 12/1
Brad Cox’s filly represents the defending Eclipse Award-winning trainer’s juvenile expertise. Cox’s proven ability with 2-year-old fillies includes Immersive’s dominant championship season, demonstrating his systematic development approach. Manuel Franco’s tactical versatility creates opportunities from the outside post position, particularly his ability to secure favorable positions in large turf fields. The weight allowance provides additional competitiveness in this demanding assignment.
Secondary Choices
Just Philtored (3) brings Michael Trombetta’s proven stakes placement ability with Mychel Sanchez providing consistent tactical rides. Her full weight assignment suggests previous stakes experience.
Catalonia (10) represents the Jose D’Angelo stable’s second entry alongside Snappy Comeback, creating potential pace scenarios. Luis Saez’s big-race experience adds tactical advantages.
Believe in Magic (9) connects William Morey with John Velazquez, offering proven stakes connections at attractive morning line odds of 15/1.
Longshot Considerations
Y’allreadyforthis (11) from Jorge Delgado’s barn with Javier Castellano could surprise at generous odds. The weight allowance and outside post position create potential value opportunities.
Oscar’s Encore (1) and Valala (7) both represent Joe Sharp’s stable, suggesting stable confidence with multiple entries. Both carry weight allowances that enhance competitiveness.
Pace Analysis
The 6-furlong distance on turf typically produces moderate early fractions, with tactical positioning becoming crucial through the first turn. Snow Face Princess figures to establish early position while tracking the pace, with Should’ve likely employing similar tactics from her inside draw. Royal Testament’s proven early speed could create pace pressure, potentially setting up closing opportunities for Final Accord and Bella Knows from outside posts.
The pace scenario appears moderately contested, with 3-4 fillies showing early tactical speed. This setup favors horses with tactical versatility who can adapt to developing scenarios. The outer turf course’s configuration rewards horses who secure favorable position through the first turn while maintaining striking position for stretch drives.
Key Angles and Trends
Trainer Patterns: Steven Asmussen shows exceptional current form with juvenile turf runners, posting strong win percentages across major circuits. Wesley Ward’s proven ability to have horses peak for major assignments creates appeal for Should’ve’s stakes debut.
Jockey Considerations: Flavien Prat’s 18.3% win percentage at the current meet leads all riders with significant mounts. His proven chemistry with Asmussen-trained horses on turf surfaces creates additional confidence.
Weight Assignments: The 4-pound allowances for non-winners of two races benefit Should’ve, Final Accord, and several others, potentially leveling competitive advantages against more experienced runners.
Post Position Impact: The outer turf course typically favors horses breaking from middle and outside posts, giving late-drawn entries tactical advantages in securing favorable position.
Wagering Angles and Strategy
Win Betting: Snow Face Princess represents solid value at even money odds, given her proven stakes form and tactical advantages. Should’ve offers attractive price potential at 7/2 morning line.
Exacta Construction: Key Snow Face Princess and Should’ve over Royal Testament, Final Accord, and Bella Knows for coverage of likely pace scenarios.
Trifecta Strategy: Use Snow Face Princess and Should’ve in multiple combinations with Royal Testament, Final Accord, Bella Knows, and longer shots Oscar’s Encore and Valala.
Superfecta Approach: Build tickets around top four contenders while including longshots Y’allreadyforthis and Believe in Magic for maximum value potential.
Final Selections and Confidence Ratings
Win: Snow Face Princess (85% confidence) – Proven stakes form, excellent connections, tactical advantages
Place: Should’ve (75% confidence) – Elite trainer, proven debut winner, weight allowance
Show: Royal Testament (70% confidence) – Local connections, recent victory, tactical speed
Longshot Special: Final Accord (40% confidence) – Hall of Fame trainer, debut winner, price value
The Grade 3 Matron Stakes presents Snow Face Princess with multiple advantages, including proven stakes experience, elite connections, and favorable pace positioning. Should’ve represents the primary upset threat with Wesley Ward’s proven juvenile expertise and weight allowance benefits. Royal Testament offers local appeal with George Weaver’s steady training approach, while Final Accord brings Mark Casse’s Hall of Fame credentials at attractive odds.
The competitive nature of this juvenile stakes creates excellent exotic wagering opportunities, particularly for handicappers who can effectively analyze the developing pace scenarios and trainer patterns that often determine outcomes in these prestigious events.
Race 6 – Claiming Race (6 Furlongs Dirt) – 3:40 PM
Key Contenders: Gatsby represents the proven claiming operation of Ilkay Kantarmaci with Manuel Franco aboard, showing consistent recent form patterns. Forgiving Spirit brings Linda Rice’s claiming expertise with Kendrick Carmouche providing tactical advantages.
Secondary Choices: Manta Rey offers value potential from Robert Falcone Jr.’s barn, while Graywing represents Oscar Barrera III’s proven claiming methods.
Longshots to Consider: Master of Arms from Michael Maker’s operation could provide exotic value at longer odds.
Pace Analysis: The sprint distance favors early speed, with closers needing ideal pace setups to succeed.
Wagering Angles: Consider win betting on proven claiming connections with exacta protection on speed and closing types.
Selections: Win: Gatsby; Place: Forgiving Spirit; Show: Manta Rey
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming Turf (1 1/16 Miles) – 4:10 PM
The seventh race presents a competitive allowance optional claiming event for fillies and mares three years old and upward at 1 1/16 miles on Belmont at the Big A’s turf course. This condition typically attracts horses stepping up from maiden and lower-level allowance company, creating excellent betting opportunities in a field where several trainers show strong recent form patterns.
Key Contenders Analysis
Immensitude (FR) (3) – 122 lbs – Junior Alvarado/William Mott
Morning Line: 5/2 favorite
William Mott’s French-bred mare emerges as the logical choice following strong recent efforts in similar company. Her recent second-place finish at Saratoga on August 28 in an allowance optional claiming event demonstrated tactical versatility and closing ability over the 1 1/16-mile distance. The 5-year-old by Lawman brings proven European breeding for turf surfaces, enhanced by Mott’s exceptional 20.9% win percentage with turf runners this season. Junior Alvarado’s 14.8% win percentage provides tactical expertise, particularly his ability to judge pace effectively in route events. The mare’s recent form pattern suggests continued improvement in allowance company, with Wathnan Racing’s ownership providing additional confidence in the placement.
Fun With Flags (IRE) (2) – 122 lbs – Manuel Franco/Chad Brown
Morning Line: 9/2
Chad Brown’s Irish-bred filly brings proven stakes-level experience, including a victory in the Tom Benson Memorial Stakes at Fair Grounds in March. Her recent efforts demonstrate consistent competitiveness at the allowance optional claiming level, with proven tactical speed and finishing ability. Brown’s dominant 26.4% win percentage over the past 21 days creates significant appeal, particularly with turf runners where his expertise proves most valuable. Manuel Franco’s tactical versatility enhances the filly’s chances from her inside draw, particularly his ability to secure favorable position through the first turn. The daughter of Zoffany shows breeding perfectly suited for North American turf racing.
Grayosh (8) – 122 lbs – Flavien Prat/Chad Brown
Morning Line: 2/1 second choice
Chad Brown’s second entry brings Grade 2 stakes-winning credentials from her upset victory in the Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga on August 17. The 4-year-old daughter of Yoshida demonstrated impressive tactical versatility in that stakes triumph, overcoming pace pressure to prevail by a neck. Her proven ability at the 1 1/16-mile distance on turf creates additional appeal, particularly with Flavien Prat’s 18.3% win percentage leading all riders with significant mounts at the current meet. Recent form includes a competitive fourth-place finish in the Grade 3 Wonder Again Stakes, showcasing consistent stakes-level competitiveness. The combination of proven class, distance suitability, and elite connections makes her a formidable threat.
Brocknardini (9) – 124 lbs – John Velazquez/George Weaver
Morning Line: 8/1
George Weaver’s filly represents proven allowance-level experience with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez providing tactical advantages. Recent efforts at Saratoga demonstrate consistent competitiveness in similar allowance optional claiming company, with proven ability to secure favorable positions in route events. Weaver’s current meet statistics show steady improvement across multiple divisions, particularly with older fillies and mares stepping up in class. Velazquez’s 14.5% win percentage and tactical expertise create opportunities for upset scenarios, especially his proven ability to judge pace effectively in large turf fields.
Secondary Choices
Tour Jete (6) – 124 lbs – Joel Rosario/Fernando Abreu
Morning Line: 15/1
Fernando Abreu’s New York-bred filly brings recent victory credentials and local breeding advantages. Her recent success at Belmont at the Big A in June demonstrates proven ability over the track and distance combination. Joel Rosario’s 17.8% win percentage enhances her upset potential, particularly his proven ability to secure favorable trips in competitive allowance fields.
Avenue Niel (IRE) (4) – 124 lbs – Mychel Sanchez/Michael Trombetta
Morning Line: 8/1
Michael Trombetta’s 6-year-old Irish-bred mare brings extensive experience and proven durability in allowance company. Recent efforts at Woodbine and other circuits demonstrate consistent competitiveness, with breeding suited for North American turf conditions. The veteran mare’s experience advantage could prove valuable in this competitive field.
Longshot Considerations
Temple City Taboo (7) – 118 lbs – Luis Rivera Jr./Antonio Arriaga
Morning Line: Attractive odds
The 3-year-old filly receives significant weight relief at 118 pounds, creating potential value opportunities. Her breeding by Temple City provides proven turf genetics, while the weight allowance enhances competitiveness against older, more experienced rivals.
Fantasy Performer (1) – 124 lbs – Ricardo Santana Jr./Lisa Bartkowski
Morning Line: 10/1
Lisa Bartkowski’s filly represents potential value at double-digit odds, particularly with Ricardo Santana Jr.’s tactical expertise. The outside morning line odds could provide exotic value in a competitive allowance field.
Pace Analysis
The 1 1/16-mile distance typically produces moderate early fractions on turf, with tactical positioning becoming crucial through Belmont at the Big A’s sweeping turns. Fun With Flags and Grayosh both show early tactical speed that could create pace pressure, potentially setting up closing opportunities for Immensitude and Brocknardini. The rail position at 9 feet favors horses who can secure favorable early position while maintaining striking ability for stretch drives.
The pace scenario appears moderately contested with 3-4 fillies showing tactical early speed. This setup rewards horses with proven route experience who can adapt to developing pace scenarios while maintaining energy for sustained stretch drives.
Key Angles and Trends
Trainer Patterns: Chad Brown’s two-horse entry demonstrates exceptional stable confidence, with both fillies showing different tactical styles that could complement each other in pace scenarios. William Mott’s proven expertise with older turf mares creates appeal for Immensitude’s class relief.
Jockey Considerations: The race features four Hall of Fame or leading jockeys (Prat, Alvarado, Velazquez, Rosario), creating competitive riding scenarios where tactical expertise becomes crucial.
Class Relief: Several entries step down from stakes company, including Grayosh from Grade 2 level, potentially creating overlays for horses with proven higher-class experience.
Distance Suitability: The 1 1/16-mile distance favors horses with proven route experience, giving advantages to mares who have successfully competed at similar distances.
Wagering Angles and Strategy
Win Betting: Immensitude represents solid value as the 5/2 morning line favorite, given her consistent allowance form and class relief. Grayosh offers potential overlay value at 2/1 if the betting public focuses heavily on the favorite.
Exacta Construction: Key the Brown entries (Fun With Flags, Grayosh) over Immensitude and Brocknardini for coverage of likely pace scenarios. Consider reverse exactas with Immensitude over the Brown horses.
Trifecta Strategy: Use Immensitude and the Brown entries in multiple combinations with Brocknardini, Tour Jete, and Avenue Niel for coverage of different pace scenarios.
Superfecta Approach: Build tickets around the top four choices while including longshots Temple City Taboo and Fantasy Performer for maximum value potential in exotic wagers.
Advanced Handicapping Notes
European Breeding Factor: Both Immensitude (FR) and Fun With Flags (IRE) bring proven European breeding for turf surfaces, often providing advantages in North American turf racing.
Stable Connections: The Brown two-horse entry creates interesting wagering dynamics, particularly if both horses show similar early odds, potentially creating value opportunities on the longer-priced stable entry.
Weight Assignments: Temple City Taboo’s 6-pound weight advantage (118 vs 122-124) represents significant relief that could enhance competitiveness, particularly over the demanding 1 1/16-mile distance.
Final Selections and Confidence Ratings
Win: Immensitude (FR) (80% confidence) – Class relief, proven form, elite connections
Place: Grayosh (75% confidence) – Stakes winner, distance suitability, elite jockey
Show: Fun With Flags (IRE) (70% confidence) – Stakes experience, strong stable, tactical speed
Longshot Special: Tour Jete (50% confidence) – Recent winner, local breeding, value potential
The allowance optional claiming condition creates an ideal betting race where several horses bring legitimate winning chances from different tactical perspectives. Immensitude’s consistent allowance form and class relief make her the logical choice, while the Brown entries provide excellent exotic wagering opportunities with their proven class and tactical versatility.
The competitive nature and quality depth of this field make it an excellent race for horizontal wagering strategies, particularly for handicappers who can effectively analyze the pace dynamics and trainer patterns that often determine outcomes in these challenging allowance events.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming Turf New York-Bred (6 Furlongs) – 4:40 PM
Key Contenders: Garden of Grace represents George Weaver with Eric Cancel, offering proven connections in restricted company. Tahila brings Miguel Clement’s expertise with Manuel Franco providing tactical advantages.
Secondary Choices: In Fact Sheza Zask connects with Melanie Giddings and John Velazquez, while Fifi La Fume represents Rudy Rodriguez with proven claiming experience.
Longshots to Consider: Five Dozen Roses and Rare Society both represent Linda Rice’s operation, potentially offering value in the competitive maiden claiming field.
Pace Analysis: The restricted nature creates competitive pace scenarios with multiple tactical options.
Wagering Angles: Focus on proven connections while considering value plays in the competitive maiden field.
Selections: Win: Garden of Grace; Place: Tahila; Show: In Fact Sheza Zask
Jockey Notes and Insights
Joel Rosario demonstrates exceptional current form with 28 wins from 157 mounts at Saratoga, posting a strong 17.8% win percentage and significant earnings of $2,905,391. His mount Should’ve in the Matron Stakes represents a key wagering angle.
John Velazquez continues his Hall of Fame excellence with 16 wins from 110 mounts at Saratoga, maintaining a solid 14.5% win percentage. His tactical expertise makes his mounts consistently competitive across multiple races today.
Flavien Prat shows remarkable consistency with 42 wins from 230 Saratoga mounts, earning over $5.6 million and demonstrating exceptional big-money race capabilities. His multiple mounts today with Chad Brown create attractive wagering opportunities.
Manuel Franco, despite a modest 8.4% win percentage, has earned over $2.6 million at Saratoga and consistently delivers value at attractive odds. His connections today suggest potential overlay situations.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Chad Brown demonstrates exceptional current form with 26 wins from 98 starters over the past 21 days, establishing clear dominance in the training ranks. His multiple entries today create compelling wagering angles, particularly on turf surfaces where his expertise proves most valuable.
Todd Pletcher maintains consistent excellence with 12 wins from 76 recent starts, showing his ability to place horses effectively across various conditions. His entries in maiden and stakes company deserve serious consideration.
George Weaver continues building momentum with strong recent results, particularly effective with younger horses and turf runners. His connections today offer both win potential and value opportunities.
Linda Rice shows 10 wins from 49 recent starts, demonstrating effective claiming and maiden race placement. Her multiple entries create potential value plays in competitive spots.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Single Race Focus: The Grade 3 Matron Stakes presents the strongest single-race betting opportunity, with quality fillies creating competitive exacta and trifecta possibilities.
Horizontal Play: Consider Daily Doubles connecting Race 4 maiden turf winners to Race 5 stakes contenders, utilizing Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher connections.
Value Hunting: Claiming races provide the best value opportunities, particularly Race 3 and Race 6 where pace dynamics could create upset scenarios.
Exotic Construction: Build Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets around proven connections while incorporating value plays in competitive claiming events.
Late Pick 4: Focus on Races 5-8, keying stakes horses while spreading in the competitive closing events for maximum coverage and value potential.
