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Track conditions show a fast dirt surface and firm turf course, providing ideal racing conditions for both surfaces. The weather forecast indicates mostly cloudy skies with west-southwest winds, following earlier light rain that has cleared, leaving optimal racing conditions. The turf rails are positioned at 36 feet for the outer turf races and 9 feet for the inner turf course.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current conditions feature mostly cloudy skies with WSW winds after morning light rain cleared. The dirt track is rated fast while the turf course maintains a firm rating, ideal for both surface types. Temperature conditions are comfortable for late October racing, with no significant weather concerns affecting the program.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (1 1/16 Miles)
Morning Line Favorites
Off Script (2/1) emerges as the logical favorite after showing consistent placement efforts throughout her campaign. The Amelia Green trainee with Jaime Rodriguez riding has been knocking on the door, earning expert praise for being “consistently placed and looks ready to break through”. Her tactical positioning skills should prove valuable in the 1 1/16-mile turf route.
Iveragh (5/2) represents Miguel Clement and shows potential for improvement from her debut effort. The analysis suggests she “could improve from debut run,” making her a logical second choice despite having a rider TBA listed on the program. The Clement stable’s turf prowess adds confidence to this selection.
Strong Secondary Choices
Amazing Gracer (3/1) brings solid recent form after finishing “a close second last time out” according to expert analysis. The Kevin Bond trainee pairs with Katie Davis, offering value at 3/1 odds. Her breeding by Tapwrit suggests turf aptitude, and the consistent placement record indicates readiness for breakthrough performance.
Starship Pegasus (3/1) represents Michelle Nevin with proven rider Javier Castellano aboard. The filly shows tactical speed and experience from previous turf efforts, making her a live contender in this competitive maiden event. Her Uncle Mo breeding provides both speed and stamina for the distance.
Middle-Tier Contenders
Sassetti (4/1) enters wearing first-time blinkers for the H. James Bond stable with Ruben Silvera riding. The equipment change could spark improvement, and her breeding by The Factor suggests early speed potential. The 4/1 odds offer reasonable value for a filly making gear adjustments.
Neri (9/2) provides another Bond stable entry at attractive odds. Her form suggests improvement potential, and the stable’s confidence in running two horses indicates strong opinions about both fillies’ chances.
Longer Shots Worth Considering
Night Jasmine (8/1) brings Ricardo Santana Jr. back to the Horacio De Paz barn. Her breeding by English Channel out of a Tapit mare suggests turf class, and the 8/1 odds provide excellent value for a filly with this breeding combination.
Fire Agate (12/1) represents Michael Maker with Dylan Davis riding, offering excellent trainer/jockey statistics on turf. The Maker stable excels with longer-priced turf runners, making this filly worth serious exotic consideration at 12/1 odds.
Kat Stormy (15/1) closes out the field for William Mott with Sahin Civaci aboard. While the longest shot on the board, the Mott stable’s turf expertise cannot be dismissed entirely, particularly in maiden company.
Pace Analysis
The race shapes up with moderate pace scenarios, as several fillies show tactical speed without dominant early runners. Off Script’s consistent placement suggests she can rate kindly, while Starship Pegasus brings early positioning ability. The 1 1/16-mile distance allows for tactical development, favoring fillies who can settle and finish.
Key Angles
The New York-bred restriction limits the field to locally-bred fillies, creating opportunities for improvement from previous efforts. Several fillies show form reversal potential, particularly those adding equipment changes or returning from layoffs. The outer turf course with rails at 36 feet provides fair racing conditions for all runners.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight Dirt (6 1/2 Furlongs)
Race 2 – Detailed Analysis
The Overwhelming Favorite
Pantherian (7/5) emerges as the clear choice based on the powerful Todd Pletcher and Joel Rosario combination. Research shows Pletcher maintains excellent statistics with first-time starters, particularly in maiden races where his impact value often exceeds expectations. The Hall of Fame trainer has earned over $504 million in purses with 5,855+ career wins, demonstrating consistent excellence with debuts. Joel Rosario’s 17.8% win rate on 157 starts at the current meet makes this partnership extremely formidable.
The colt is owned by WinStar Farm, LLC, First Go Racing and CHC, Inc., indicating significant investment in quality bloodstock. His breeding by Combatant out of a Liam’s Map mare suggests both speed and class for the 6 1/2-furlong distance.
The Logical Second Choice
Whiskey Point (9/2) represents another powerful first-time starter combination with Steven Asmussen and Ricardo Santana Jr.. The Asmussen barn shows solid debut statistics, though research indicates somewhat lower impact values compared to Pletcher. Santana Jr. leads the current Belmont at the Big A meet with 174 starts, providing tactical expertise crucial for debut runners.
The colt is owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and bred by Danzel Brendemuehl & Colleen, suggesting quality breeding for the New York-bred program. His breeding by Yaupon out of Capable (by Bernardini) provides both speed and stamina for the distance.
Experienced Contenders
Combat Mission (6/1) brings actual race experience with a rating of 84 from previous efforts. The John Kimmel trainee with Kendrick Carmouche shows a record of 2 starts with 0-0-1, indicating previous placement potential. His breeding by Combatant out of Karley O (by Liam’s Map) mirrors similar bloodlines to the favorite, suggesting competitive ability.
Kaz Dominator (6/1) enters with one previous start showing a rating of 70. The Dimitrios Synnefias trainee with Dylan Davis brings experience advantage, though his 5th place finish in debut suggests improvement needed. His record shows 1 start with 0-0-0, indicating no previous earnings.
Longer Shots with Experience
Sir Walta (12/1) shows the most race experience with multiple previous starts. The David Duggan trainee with Romero Ramsay Maragh carries additional data suggesting consistent efforts, though limited success. Statistical analysis shows Sir Walta with 26% win probability and 81% show probability, indicating potential value at longer odds.
Winston D (10/1) pairs Jose Lezcano with trainer Melanie Giddings, who shows excellent 57% win rate and 86% in-the-money percentage. This combination offers significant value potential despite longer odds, particularly with Lezcano’s 21% win rate on 109 starts.
Deep Longshots
Classic Commander (12/1) brings Jaime Rodriguez and Gary Sciacca together, though both show modest statistics. Wamo (12/1) was also eligible in a previous race, suggesting connections are seeking proper spot. The Michael Maker trainee with Katie Davis offers 20% win probability at 12/1 odds.
King Farro (15/1) closes out the field for Robert Falcone Jr. with Christopher Elliott riding. As the longest shot, he offers minimal statistical support but provides exotic betting value.
Pace Analysis
The 6 1/2-furlong dirt distance favors tactical speed, with several horses showing early positioning ability. Pantherian and Whiskey Point likely provide moderate early pace, while experienced runners like Combat Mission and Kaz Dominator offer stalking opportunities. The New York-bred restriction creates competitive balance among locally-bred runners.
Key Angles
First-time starters from elite trainers traditionally perform well in New York-bred maiden events. The Pletcher/Rosario combination shows excellent historical results with debuts, while Asmussen/Santana Jr. provides proven tactical excellence. Experienced runners face the challenge of proven limited ability against potentially superior first-time starters.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming (1 Mile Dirt)
Race 3 – Detailed Analysis
The Consensus Choice
Pentathlon (5/2) emerges as the logical favorite with Joel Rosario and Claude McGaughey III combining forces. The expert consensus strongly supports this choice, with all four NYRA handicappers including him in their top selections. TimeformUS expert David Aragona rates him as the second choice, noting his solid 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure from June and ability to handle this class level. McGaughey III shows 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage in 2025, providing consistent trainer statistics. Rosario’s 17.8% win rate on 157 starts at the current meet adds significant jockey value.
The colt is owned by Phipps Stable, St. Elias Stable and Woodford Racing, LLC, indicating quality bloodstock investment. His breeding by Solomini out of Timberlea (by Flatter) suggests both class and stamina for the one-mile distance.
The Speed Threat
Mr. Papagiorgio (9/2) receives universal expert support as the primary pace angle, with DRF analysis stating he “should have it his way up front cutting back on dry track”. The combination of Ricardo Santana Jr. and Richard Dutrow Jr. provides proven tactical excellence, with Santana Jr. leading the current meet with 174 starts. Recent analysis shows Wynstock and Noted finished second and fourth in the same 1 1/8-mile race where Mr. Papagiorgio competed, providing direct form connections.
Expert handicapper Andy Serling rates him second choice at 9/2 odds, while other experts consistently include him in their top selections. The pace advantage cutting back from 1 1/8 miles to one mile could prove decisive.
The Improving Contender
Top Gun Rocket (7/2) shows an impressive 2025 campaign with three consecutive victories at Keeneland, Belmont at the Big A, and Saratoga. His form line displays wins on April 19th, May 23rd, and June 8th, demonstrating consistent improvement throughout the year. The Panagiotis Synnefias trainee with Dylan Davis riding has earned ratings of 95, 98, and 101 in successive victories.
Expert David Aragona tabs him as the top selection, noting his improvement pattern and current form cycle. His breeding by Into Mischief out of Rocket Twentyone provides both speed and class for allowance company.
The Layoff Contender
Donegal Surges (3/1) returns from a 10-month layoff for Todd Pletcher with Kendrick Carmouche riding. DRF analysis specifically mentions “The New York-bred Donegal Surges, trained by Todd Pletcher, is coming off a 10-month layoff”. His previous form shows competitive efforts in allowance company, finishing second in a similar event on September 20, 2024.
Expert Darwin Vizcaya makes him the top selection at 3/1 odds, while other handicappers consistently include him in exotic play. Pletcher’s excellence with layoff horses and Carmouche’s tactical skills provide confidence despite the extended absence.
Secondary Contenders
Wynstock (6/1) brings direct form with Mr. Papagiorgio, having finished second in their most recent meeting. The Fernando Abreu trainee with Jaime Rodriguez shows consistent placement ability and could benefit from the pace setup. His breeding by Solomini suggests class for this level.
Noted (8/1) also competed in the same race as Mr. Papagiorgio and Wynstock, finishing fourth in that 1 1/8-mile contest. The Gustavo Rodriguez trainee with Eric Cancel could improve cutting back in distance with a better pace setup.
The Longshot
Sheriff Bianco (12/1) drops significantly in class for Linda Rice with Ruben Silvera riding. His recent form shows a non-runner effort on September 13th in a similar allowance race, suggesting connections are seeking the proper spot. At 12/1 odds, he offers potential exotic value despite limited recent success.
Pace Analysis
Mr. Papagiorgio appears to be the lone early speed, creating an advantageous pace scenario for his front-running style. The one-mile distance with limited early pace suggests moderate fractions that could favor both the leader and closers. Top Gun Rocket’s tactical speed provides stalking opportunities, while Pentathlon and Donegal Surges offer closing threats.
Key Angles
The distance cutback from 1 1/8 miles favors Mr. Papagiorgio’s speed style, while the allowance conditions suit horses moving up from claiming company. Pletcher’s layoff statistics with Donegal Surges provide angle play, and Top Gun Rocket’s improving form cycle suggests continued upward trajectory.
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (6 Furlongs)
Race 4 – Detailed Analysis
The Consensus Favorite
Shades of Jade (5/2) receives overwhelming expert support with three of four NYRA handicappers making her their top selection. The Philip Antonacci trainee pairs with Ricardo Santana Jr., who leads the current meet with 174 starts and excellent winning percentage. Her breeding by Munnings out of Jade D’oro suggests both early speed and turf aptitude.
Recent form shows consistent efforts including a runner-up finish at Saratoga where she earned an 89 official rating. The combination of proven connections, improving form, and expert consensus makes her the logical choice despite being the shortest price.
The Proven Second Choice
Lots of Kisses (3/1) brings the powerful Michael Maker and Javier Castellano combination to the table. Maker shows exceptional turf statistics with 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage in 2025, making his maiden turf runners particularly dangerous. Castellano maintains solid form with 91 starts and 12.1% win rate during the 2025 Saratoga meet.
Expert Darwin Vizcaya makes her his second choice while other handicappers consistently include her in exotic play. The Three Diamonds Farm ownership indicates quality breeding investment, and her breeding suggests turf class.
The Brown Factor
Leaner and Meaner (6/1) represents Chad Brown with Dylan Davis riding, a combination that has produced excellent results throughout 2025. Brown tied for the 2025 Saratoga training title, earning $4,509,878 from 186 starts. Her breeding by Munnings out of Revitalized (by Uncle Mo) provides both speed and stamina for the 6-furlong distance.
Expert Andy Serling makes her his top selection at 6/1 odds, while TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona tabs her second choice. The Klaravich Stables ownership and Dixiana Farms breeding indicate quality bloodstock.
The Maker Depth Play
One Front War (6/1) provides another Michael Maker entry with Joel Rosario aboard. Her form shows consistent efforts with ratings of 8-76627, indicating steady improvement potential. Expert Acacia Clement makes her the second choice while other handicappers include her in exotic combinations.
The combination of Paradise Farms Corp. ownership and Lothenbach Stables breeding suggests significant investment. Rosario’s 17.8% win rate on 157 starts at the current meet adds substantial jockey value.
The European-Bred Threats
Vinalia (GB) (6/1) brings European breeding with H. Graham Motion training and Kendrick Carmouche riding. Motion shows solid turf statistics, and Carmouche’s recent interview reveals his particular expertise on grass courses, stating “the grass is like playing chess for me”. Previous analysis at Del Mar mentioned her as a top contender in turf sprints for maiden fillies.
My Divine Spirit (GB) (10/1) offers another European-bred option with Jaime Rodriguez and Jorge Abreu combining forces. The 10/1 odds provide potential value for a filly with European breeding credentials typically suited for turf racing.
Middle-Distance Contenders
Tellnotales (10/1) pairs Eric Cancel with George Weaver, offering solid trainer statistics and fair odds. Expert Darwin Vizcaya includes her in his top four selections, suggesting hidden form potential.
Just Jules (12/1) represents William Mott with Sahin Civaci aboard. The Hall of Fame trainer’s excellence with turf runners cannot be dismissed despite longer odds. Her breeding by Justify suggests quality bloodlines that could translate to turf success.
The Longshot
Shirl’s Delight (20/1) closes out the field as a 5-year-old mare with Christopher Elliott riding. Her extensive campaign shows 17 starts with 0-5-8 record, indicating consistent minor award ability but limited winning potential.
Pace Analysis
The 6-furlong turf distance creates tactical challenges where early positioning becomes crucial. Shades of Jade’s Munnings breeding suggests early speed, while Leaner and Meaner offers tactical pace from her Uncle Mo dam line. The outer turf course with rails at 36 feet provides fair racing conditions for all runners.
Key Angles
Expert consensus strongly favors the top four choices, with all handicappers using some combination of Shades of Jade, Lots of Kisses, Leaner and Meaner, and One Front War. The maiden special weight conditions favor improving fillies from top connections over horses with extensive unsuccessful campaigns.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (1 1/16 Miles)
Race 5 – Detailed Analysis
The Morning Line Favorite
Cost Effective (2/1) receives the shortest odds despite being overlooked by most expert handicappers. The Chad Brown and Ricardo Santana Jr. combination provides elite connections, with Brown earning $4,509,878 from 186 starts during the 2025 Saratoga meet. Santana Jr. leads the current Belmont at the Big A meet with 174 starts and excellent winning percentage. Brown’s 24% win rate and 55% in-the-money percentage with 136 starts makes any debut runner dangerous.
However, expert handicappers show minimal confidence in the morning line choice, suggesting the odds may be artificially low based on connections rather than proven form.
The Expert Consensus Choice
British Invasion (IRE) (5/2) receives overwhelming expert support with three of four NYRA handicappers using him in their top selections. TimeformUS expert David Aragona makes him second choice while Andy Serling and Darwin Vizcaya both tab him on top. Recent form shows improving efforts with a second-place finish on October 2nd behind Behold The King.
His breeding by Lope de Vega (IRE) out of Paraphernalia provides European turf class, with the sire producing multiple turf stakes winners. The combination of Joel Rosario and Miguel Clement adds significant value, as Clement posted 18 victories during the demanding Saratoga meet. Rosario’s 17.8% win rate on 157 starts at the current meet reinforces the partnership’s strength.
The Proven Closer
Quiet Power (3/1) shows the most impressive statistical profile with figures of 15-29-44 and designation as “Fastest Closer”. His record of 2 starts with 0-1-1 indicates consistent minor award ability with improvement potential. The Claude McGaughey III and Kendrick Carmouche combination provides proven tactical excellence, particularly in route turf events where closing kicks become crucial.
Previous efforts show a second-place finish on October 2nd and fifth-place finish at Saratoga, demonstrating steady progression. His breeding by Tapit out of Quality Queen suggests both class and stamina for the 1 1/16-mile distance.
The Brown Longshot
Tacticality (6/1) represents Chad Brown’s best statistical chance with figures of 20-38-57. Expert handicappers show significant confidence, with Andy Serling making him second choice and Acacia Clement tabbing him on top. His single start at Saratoga resulted in a fifth-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile dirt maiden.
Dylan Davis brings 91 starts with 11% win rate and 26% in-the-money percentage, providing solid jockey statistics. Brown’s exceptional record with two-year-old turf debuts makes this colt particularly dangerous despite longer odds.
The Improving Second-Timer
Chambersville (6/1) shows excellent recent form with a runner-up finish on October 2nd at 3/1 odds. His statistical profile of 11-22-34 and “Fast Closer” designation suggests strong finishing ability. The Kenneth McPeek and Javier Castellano partnership provides proven stakes-level expertise.
Recent analysis shows consistent improvement from his debut effort, earning connections’ confidence to return quickly. His breeding by Twirling Candy suggests both speed and class for allowance company.
Secondary Contenders
Jet Off (8/1) brings race experience with three starts and 0-1-1 record, showing consistent minor award ability. Expert Acacia Clement includes him in her top four selections, suggesting hidden form potential. His designation as “Fast Leader” indicates early speed potential that could prove crucial in a large field.
Copa de Plata (12/1) receives TimeformUS expert David Aragona’s top selection, indicating significant value potential. The Mark Casse trainee shows 103 starts with 10% win rate and 32% in-the-money percentage. His “Fast Closer” designation and previous turf experience at Saratoga provide tactical advantages.
Longshot Considerations
Zenick (20/1) represents Todd Pletcher as a first-time starter, though FanDuel handicappers make him their top selection. Fourth Dimension (20/1) brings William Mott’s turf expertise with Jose Lezcano riding, offering potential value at longer odds.
Pace Analysis
The large field creates complex pace dynamics with multiple running styles represented. Jet Off provides early speed as “Fast Leader” while Quiet Power, Chambersville, and Copa de Plata offer “Fast Closer” profiles. The 1 1/16-mile distance allows for tactical development, favoring horses with proven finishing ability.
Key Angles
Expert consensus strongly favors British Invasion based on recent form improvement and proven connections. The European breeding angle provides class advantages, while tactical speed horses benefit from the large field setup. Chad Brown’s two entries offer different tactical approaches with Cost Effective potentially providing early positioning and Tacticality offering closing punch.
Race 6 – Claiming ($50,000)
Key Contenders: Shifty Gold (#11) drops from allowance company for Chad Brown with Ricardo Santana Jr. Two’s a Crowd (#3) brings Javier Castellano’s tactical skills.
Secondary Choices: Register (#4) offers consistency for the Donk barn. Golden Plate (#5) represents Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche.
Longshots: Makes Sense (#12) provides another Chad Brown entry at longer odds. Flying Liam (#10) could surprise for the Margotta stable.
Race 7 – Maiden Claiming ($20,000)
Key Contenders: Fiscal Drag (#5) represents Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche, showing consistent efforts. Freedom Maker (#8) gets Dylan Davis after recent gelding surgery.
Secondary Choices: Dr. Insel (#7) brings Jaime Rodriguez aboard for trainer Kantarmaci. Cat Fast (#3) offers value for the Rice stable.
Longshots: Down the Line (#9) could surprise at longer odds. Natural Hunk (#1) provides veteran appeal.
Race 8 – Starter Optional Claiming Turf (6 Furlongs)
Race 8 – Detailed Analysis
The Co-Favorites
Will Not Be Swayed (2/1) and Geez Eloise (2/1) both represent Linda Rice’s powerful stable with proven jockeys. Will Not Be Swayed pairs with Jose Lezcano and shows excellent recent form with a record of 8 starts: 2-4-4 (25% win rate, 50% show rate). Her recent victory at Saratoga demonstrates current fitness, while the statistical profile shows “Mid Pack Deep” closing style ideal for large field scenarios.
Geez Eloise gets the same trainer/jockey combination with Jose Lezcano and displays superior statistical credentials: 11 starts with 3-4-5 record (27% win rate, 45% show rate). Her “Fast Stalker” running style and recent second-place finish at Saratoga indicate peak current form. Expert Andy Serling includes her as his second choice while TimeformUS handicapper David Aragona uses her as well.
The Logical Third Choice
Hue (5/2) emerges as the most intriguing alternative to the Rice stable entries. Her statistical profile shows exceptional class with 5 starts producing 2-3-4 record (40% win rate, 80% show rate). The “Fastest Stalker” designation suggests tactical speed crucial in 6-furlong turf sprints, while her recent victory at Saratoga confirms current excellence.
Expert handicappers show strong confidence, with Andy Serling making her his fourth choice and David Aragona tabbing her third. The Horacio De Paz and Jaime Rodriguez combination provides proven tactical expertise particularly effective in competitive claiming events.
The Value Contenders
Spencer Tiara (7/2) offers exceptional value with Elizabeth Merryman training and Eric Cancel riding. Her statistical profile of 13 starts with 2-6-7 record (15% win rate, 54% show rate) shows consistent minor award ability. The “Fastest Leader” designation could prove crucial if early pace develops moderately, and her recent runner-up efforts demonstrate current competitive form.
Red Burgundy (9/2) brings Ricardo Santana Jr. back to Horacio De Paz’s barn with solid credentials. Her record of 12 starts producing 2-5-7 (17% win rate, 58% show rate) indicates consistent competitiveness. Expert Andy Serling completely overlooks her, creating potential value opportunities for sharp handicappers recognizing Santana Jr.’s current excellence.
The Longshot Specials
Bembridge Ledge (6/1) represents the Joel Rosario and Michael Maker partnership that has produced excellent results throughout 2025. Recent analysis shows her finishing seventh in a Kentucky Downs allowance, demonstrating class while dropping to more suitable conditions. Maker’s 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage with turf runners makes this filly particularly dangerous at favorable odds.
Watdoyousay Jose (5/1) shows perfect statistical credentials with 1 start producing 1-1-1 record (100% win rate, 100% show rate). Dylan Davis pairs with Linda Rice for this improving three-year-old filly who won impressively at Saratoga in her debut. The lack of extensive race data creates both risk and reward potential, but Rice’s confidence in multiple entries suggests strong stable form.
The European Import
Amazing Athena (IRE) (10/1) brings international breeding with Katie Davis and David Duggan combining forces. Her record of 11 starts with 2-3-3 (18% win rate, 27% show rate) shows steady improvement throughout 2025. Recent victory at Belmont at the Big A demonstrates current fitness, while her “Fast Leads” style could capitalize on moderate early pace scenarios.
Mid-Range Alternatives
Quick Power Nap (10/1) offers extensive experience with 35 starts producing 5-11-17 record, though her 14% win rate suggests limited upside potential. True Spun (10/1) provides Kendrick Carmouche’s tactical skills with “Fast Closer” profile suited for large field development.
Elegant (6/1) completes Linda Rice’s three-horse assault with Kendrick Carmouche riding. Her 22 starts with 2-2-7 record (9% win rate, 32% show rate) indicates class limitations, though recent form improvements at Saratoga suggest potential breakthrough performance.
Pace Analysis
The 16-horse field creates complex tactical scenarios with multiple early speed types including Spencer Tiara (“Fastest Leader”) and Amazing Athena (“Fast Leads”). Mid-pack stalkers like Hue and Geez Eloise should benefit from pace pressure, while closers like Will Not Be Swayed and True Spun need solid early fractions to unleash finishing kicks.
Key Angles
Linda Rice’s three-entry dominance with Will Not Be Swayed, Geez Eloise, and Elegant creates obvious superfecta opportunities while potentially providing pace advantages through tactical cooperation. The starter optional claiming conditions favor horses stepping up from pure claiming ranks, while the 6-furlong turf distance emphasizes early positioning over pure closing ability.
Race 9 – Maiden Claiming Turf ($50,000)
Key Contenders: Thorsness (#4) brings Joel Rosario back to Todd Pletcher, a leading combination. Nyquistador (#5) gets Jose Lezcano for Chad Brown after recent gelding procedure.
Secondary Choices: Consolation Prize (#3) offers Dylan Davis and Chad Brown partnership. Authentic Legend (#1) represents Todd Pletcher with Kendrick Carmouche.
Longshots: Quiet Moon (#11) gets Katie Davis for William Mott. Sequential (#12) provides Linda Rice stable option.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Ricardo Santana Jr. leads the current Belmont at the Big A meet with 174 starts and strong winning percentages. His partnership with top trainers like Chad Brown and Steven Asmussen provides multiple opportunities throughout the card. Javier Castellano maintains solid form with 91 starts and an 12.1% win rate during the 2025 Saratoga meet. Joel Rosario shows excellent efficiency with a 17.8% win rate on 157 starts, making his mounts consistently competitive.
Kendrick Carmouche provides value with 147 starts at the current meet and tactical riding skills. Dylan Davis offers 140 starts at Belmont at the Big A with improving form late in the meet. The jockey colony remains competitive with multiple riders capable of producing winners at fair odds.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher tied for the 2025 Saratoga training title, demonstrating continued excellence. Brown’s stable earned $4,509,878 from 186 starts while Pletcher achieved similar success with 131 starts. William Mott maintains his position among leading trainers with 540 starts nationwide and solid earnings.
Michael Maker shows 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage in 2025, providing consistent value opportunities. The trainer’s turf expertise makes his entries particularly dangerous in grass events. Linda Rice dominates the claiming ranks with multiple entries throughout the card, offering depth in lower-level races.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best wagering approach focuses on trainer and jockey combinations showing recent form excellence. Chad Brown entries paired with quality riders like Dylan Davis and Ricardo Santana Jr. offer consistent value. Todd Pletcher’s two-year-olds on turf provide excellent exotic betting opportunities when paired with proven riders.
Michael Maker’s turf entries deserve serious consideration in maiden events, particularly when combined with Joel Rosario. The claiming races offer opportunities to find value with Linda Rice’s tactical entries using proven jockeys like Kendrick Carmouche.
Multiple Brown and Pletcher entries create excellent multi-race wagering opportunities in Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences. The late Pick 5 provides the best value potential with competitive fields in races 5 through 9 featuring multiple viable contenders from top connections.
