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Tonight’s Charles Town card offers nine races starting at 7:00 PM Eastern, built almost entirely around state-bred and lower- to mid-level claiming and allowance optional claiming events over the dirt bullring at 4.5 furlongs, 6.5 furlongs, 7 furlongs, and one 1 1/16 mile route.

The sequence is structured with:

• Early value in Race 1 and Race 2, where the fields are small but the favorites are not absolute standouts.
• A key allowance optional claiming route in Race 4 that looks like an obvious single for many multi-race players.
• A pair of West Virginia-bred claiming races in Race 3 and Race 5 where field depth and potential for upsets are relatively high.
• A strong state-bred maiden special in Race 6 featuring multiple well-meant two-year-olds with obvious upside.
• Two higher-level allowance optional claiming sprints in Race 7 and Race 8 that look like the quality backbone of the card.
• A full twelve-horse state-bred claiming field for fillies and mares in Race 9 that should decide many late horizontal tickets.

Consensus among multiple handicapping sources points to Deadpan in Race 4, Fortunate Son in Race 5, Red Dawn Coming in Race 6, Overnight Pow Wow in Race 7, Ozone and Falcon Blue in Race 8, and Still Grumpy plus several others in Race 9 as central players on the card.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast data for West Virginia on December 11 indicates very cold conditions, with daytime highs near 1 to 2 degrees Celsius and nighttime lows around minus 1 degree Celsius, with a risk of wintry precipitation in the region. Seasonal climate averages for nearby areas of West Virginia suggest typical December highs near 7 to 8 degrees Celsius and lows near minus 3 degrees Celsius, with relatively frequent precipitation.​

As of the latest publicly available scratches and changes information, there is no official posting yet of today’s specific Charles Town track condition for December 11. Historically, Charles Town runs on a conventional dirt surface that is often listed as fast unless there has been significant recent rainfall or snowmelt. Given the cold temperatures, a fast or potentially good surface is plausible, but the official condition must be confirmed closer to post time via track communications or tote system updates.​

From a bias and configuration standpoint, Charles Town’s six-furlong bullring and tight turns place a premium on position into the first bend and on horses with early or tactical speed. For sprint races at Charles Town, inside posts hold a measurable advantage, with post positions 1 and 2 historically producing roughly 15 to 16 percent of winners each in sprints, while far outside posts, especially post 9, have produced significantly fewer winners. Front-runners and pace-pressers do notably well on a fast surface; closers generally need either a strong contested pace or a surface affected by moisture to maximize their chances.​

1st Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

7 furlongs, claiming 4000 non-winners of two races since December 11, 2024. For three-year-olds and upward. Field of seven.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 7:00 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

Seven furlongs at Charles Town is effectively a two-turn sprint. Historical track tendencies at this distance show an advantage to horses that can secure forward position on the first turn without losing ground three to four wide. With this group composed mainly of older geldings at a modest claiming level and without a clearly documented need-the-lead type in the public commentary, the race projects as a moderate to honest pace rather than a meltdown or a crawl.​

Inside posts are somewhat favored at this distance, and the rail horse Subject to Change should be able to secure a ground-saving trip if he leaves cleanly. Baron’s Legacy in post 2 also benefits from an inside draw. The outside horses Woke Up in Love and Spirit of Windsor will need to avoid losing too much ground around both turns.​

Key Contenders

Subject to Change (post 1) is the top selection for at least one prominent handicapper and shows enough support on multiple sheets to qualify as a key contender. He draws the rail with a capable rider and comes in off a recent vet scratch in November, suggesting he has been handled cautiously coming into this spot. The combination of inside draw, modest claiming level, and a trainer who placed him back at a realistic tag is appealing, especially in a race without a standout on paper.​

Baron’s Legacy (post 2) appears near the top of a major computer-generated ranking for this race and is generally viewed as one of the most reliable runners at this level. His draw just outside the rail allows him a straightforward trip tracking the pace or sitting within two to three lengths of the lead. The trainer has an excellent long-term strike rate at Charles Town, and this barn often has horses fit and ready for these intermediate sprint distances.​

Spirit of Windsor (post 7) also rates highly on several algorithmic evaluations and is treated as a top-tier contender by at least one quantitative sheet. Despite the outside draw, he brings class and consistency at this level and can be effective stalking from midpack. The trainer has a solid local record with limited starters, and the rider is familiar with the Charles Town configuration.​

Secondary Choices

Abuelo Paps (post 5) appears in the upper half of the computer rankings, suggesting he is capable of a competitive effort if he recaptures his better form. As an eight-year-old, he is not likely to improve, but he has faced slightly better in the recent past and could get a piece if the top choices underperform.​

Woke Up in Love (post 6) fits as a mid-range contender whose recent efforts at similar claiming levels put him in the mix for minor awards. The rider has a strong local record and tends to get the best out of horses that can attend the pace.​

Tapio (post 4) shows up as a lower-ranked contender on some sheets but still within the competitive cluster, especially if he gets a clean inside-ish trip and benefits from any potential pace collapse.​

Guns n’ Rojas (post 3) is the one entrant that does not appear prominently in available computer rankings, which suggests he is a lesser win prospect in this particular spot, though not impossible for a minor share.

Longshots

Given the relatively compact field and lack of extreme outsiders on consensus sheets, there is no single massive longshot flagged as a key overlay. Among the lesser-backed runners, Tapio and Guns n’ Rojas are the most plausible upset candidates, but they will likely require multiple key rivals to regress or endure wide, compromised trips.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is an excellent race to try to beat or at least not lean too heavily on the single favorite, because the public may gravitate to the inside horses and the overall ability spread is not huge.

Win betting can be focused on the best price among Subject to Change, Baron’s Legacy, and Spirit of Windsor, with a preference toward whichever of the three offers the most value relative to morning line and live odds.

In exactas, consider boxing Subject to Change and Baron’s Legacy, and then pressing combinations like Subject to Change over Baron’s Legacy and Spirit of Windsor, as well as Baron’s Legacy over Subject to Change and Spirit of Windsor.

For early multi-race wagers like the early double or pick 3 starting here, a defensively spread approach using Subject to Change, Baron’s Legacy, and Spirit of Windsor as primary A-level horses, with Abuelo Paps as a backup, is a reasonable strategy.

Selections

Win: Subject to Change

Place: Baron’s Legacy

Show: Spirit of Windsor

2nd Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

4.5 furlongs, West Virginia-bred claiming 10000 non-winners of three races. Field of seven.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 7:32 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

At 4.5 furlongs on the Charles Town bullring, pure early speed is a dominant weapon. Statistical analyses of this configuration show that front-runners and pace-pressers win an especially high percentage of these abbreviated sprints, and many races are effectively decided by the time the field exits the single turn into the short stretch.​

Candy Connection brings prior front-running form and has been described in previous race analyses as the horse others had to catch when stretching to two turns, underscoring his natural speed. Youthful Energy and Super Puncher have also shown short-sprint pace, while Fungo Fungo is no slouch early. With multiple fast types, the pace could be very sharp, but on this configuration a speed horse that breaks cleanly can still sustain despite strong fractions.​

Key Contenders

Candy Connection (post 5) is singled out as the top selection and probable heavy favorite by more than one handicapper. Prior commentary on his earlier races notes that he graduated easily and was considered the runner others needed to catch when trying longer distances. Cutting back to 4.5 furlongs against state-bred claiming company should maximize his speed edge. He also attracts the top local rider, which only adds to his appeal.​

Youthful Energy (post 4) ranks highest in at least one computer-based selection set for this race and is listed near the top of others. He has the right profile as a lightly raced four-year-old with enough ability to stay within striking range of Candy Connection. If the favorite stumbles or fails to reproduce his best effort, Youthful Energy is well-positioned to capitalize.​

Fungo Fungo (post 6) appears as a strong second choice on leading quantitative sheets and is viewed as a legitimate win threat. He should be forwardly placed and is capable of carving out a trip just off Candy Connection’s flank, looking to pounce late if the favorite begins to tire.​

Secondary Choices

Super Puncher (post 2) shows mid-level ranking among computer sheets and is still on the upswing as a three-year-old. With a good break, he can sit just behind the main speed and pick up the pieces for a share. The trainer often spots horses aggressively when they are sitting on a forward move.​

Juba Marches On (post 7) has some support on the algorithmic side and may offer a bit of value due to the outside draw and inconsistent form. Still, with the right break, he can tuck in behind the main line of speed and pick up late positions.​

Red Roscoe (post 3) and King of Luck (post 1) have lower win expectations in most computerized evaluations, with King of Luck especially flagged as an outsider. They are more plausible for fourth or for use in deeper vertical exotics than as win candidates.​

Longshots

King of Luck will likely be the highest price on the board. His inside draw is a plus, and he does possess some speed, but his ratings are notably lower than the top group. He is primarily interesting as a trifecta or superfecta filler if the pace collapses more than expected.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race revolves around Candy Connection. From a wagering perspective, he is usable as a strong single in early horizontals, but his win odds may be too short for a straight win bet unless the price drifts above even money.

An efficient strategy is to:

• Single Candy Connection in multi-race wagers that need budget discipline.
• In intra-race exotics, key Candy Connection on top of Youthful Energy, Fungo Fungo, and Super Puncher in exactas and trifectas, while allowing for some backup tickets with Youthful Energy or Fungo Fungo over Candy Connection.

If the win pool shows serious underlay behavior on Candy Connection, modest saver win bets on Youthful Energy or Fungo Fungo at fair prices can hedge against a minor upset.

Selections

Win: Candy Connection

Place: Youthful Energy

Show: Fungo Fungo

3rd Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

6.5 furlongs, claiming 5000 for horses which have never won two races. Field of nine.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 8:02 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

At 6.5 furlongs, horses start near the middle of the backstretch and must negotiate two turns. This configuration tends to favor horses that can secure a stalking position in the first flight, especially from inside to mid posts, while extreme outside posts can be disadvantaged by ground loss.​

Given the mix of lightly raced three-year-olds and older geldings, most pace projections suggest an honest but not blistering tempo, with several runners showing enough tactical speed to dispute or press the lead rather than a single clear speed type. Under these circumstances, a horse like Pico Plat, who has proven form and can sit just off the lead, is well-suited to the likely flow.​

Key Contenders

Pico Plat (post 9) is the consensus top choice for this race, singled out as the main pick by at least one leading public handicapper. He comes from a high-percentage barn that excels with this type of non-winners-of-two claiming runner at Charles Town, and he retains a top local rider with an exceptional win and in-the-money rate at the track. Although drawn outside, his style as a stalker who can drop in slightly and attend the pace makes the post workable, especially if he breaks sharply.​

Favorite Road (post 7) is ranked very highly by one of the primary quantitative sheets and appears as one of the better win candidates in the field. His profile fits the distance, and he should be able to work out a stalking trip sitting off the early speed. If Pico Plat encounters a wide trip or fails to fire, Favorite Road is a major beneficiary.​

Bid On Blue (post 2) also owns a favorable computer ranking and benefits from a ground-saving draw. The jockey-trainer combination is consistent locally, and this horse’s form suggests he can handle the class level and distance. He is a logical inclusion in all serious tickets.​

Secondary Choices

River Warrior Rvf (post 1) comes from a top trainer at Charles Town and is drawn on the rail, which can be advantageous if he leaves cleanly and secures inside position into the first turn. Computer rankings place him within the competitive cluster just behind the top two or three.​

Gogogetem (post 5) earns mid-pack ratings but fits on class and may offer some value given his three-year-old upside. A clean stalking trip could land him in the trifecta if the race sets up for midpack runners.​

Ride the Brand (post 6), Estrella Fugaz (post 3), and Grandy (post 8) project as more speculative secondary players. They show lower total scores on the algorithmic sheets but could grab a share if they work out ground-saving trips and the top choices underperform.​

One Candy Castle (post 4) appears near the bottom of most ranked lists and will need substantial improvement or race flow in his favor to get into the exacta or trifecta.​

Longshots

Among the longer prices, Grandy and One Candy Castle are the most likely to be overlooked by the public. Grandy, in particular, could be a late-running presence for third or fourth if the pace is stronger than expected and he manages to avoid traffic.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Pico Plat is a logical primary key but not invulnerable due to the outside draw and competitive nature of this field.

One practical strategy is:

• Use Pico Plat as an A-level horse in multi-race wagers, with Favorite Road and Bid On Blue as strong B-level backups.
• In exactas, lean on combinations like Pico Plat over Favorite Road and Bid On Blue, and box Pico Plat with these two for coverage.
• Trifectas can key Pico Plat on top but include River Warrior Rvf and Gogogetem underneath, especially if the betting public underestimates the rail runner.

Punters looking to oppose the favorite may consider an exacta box of Favorite Road and Bid On Blue, fading Pico Plat entirely, but that requires confidence that the race will not suit the outside favorite.

Selections

Win: Pico Plat

Place: Favorite Road

Show: Bid On Blue

4th Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

1 1/16 miles, allowance optional claiming 15000 for non-winners of two lifetime or non-winners of a race other than restricted types. Field of seven.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 8:32 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This is the lone two-turn route at 1 1/16 miles on the card. Over this trip, post bias is less pronounced than in sprints, though inside posts still show a mild advantage in long-term statistics. Tactically, early speed is still useful, but the extra ground and the three-turn nature of Charles Town routes provide more opportunities for midpack runners to get involved.​

Form and commentary from off-site previews of a similar configuration on the following day note that Deadpan has successfully employed a pace-pressing or on-the-lead style in recent wins and is stepping up in class off a solid performance. Epic Luck is a capable stalker who can sit just off the leaders, while Direct Appeal has prior course success and can either attend the pace or sit midpack.​

With no confirmed deep closer of high quality, this route likely goes to a horse who secures forward position early and then finishes strongly.

Key Contenders

Deadpan (post 6) is the consensus key horse in this event, singled out as the top pick by at least one major public handicapper. He comes from a barn that has been extremely productive at Charles Town, and he has already proven he can win at this configuration. Off-track commentary on a closely related race describes him as well-placed to follow up on a last-out win while moving up in class, which fits this spot perfectly. With an elite local rider, he is a logical single for many multi-race players.​

Epic Luck (post 5) is highly regarded on a notable computer line, appearing as the top-rated horse there and mentioned as a primary challenger to Deadpan in textual previews. He has the right tactical style for this race, likely sitting just off the pace set or pressed by Deadpan. If Deadpan regresses or encounters trouble, Epic Luck is the most likely to pick up the pieces.​

Direct Appeal (post 4) brings course form and improving figures. Commentary on similar upcoming races notes his winning course form and views him as part of the main triad behind Deadpan and Epic Luck. With a light impost relative to older runners and an inside-mid draw, he can save ground and strike on the far turn.​

Secondary Choices

Game Keeper (post 2) appears mid-pack on several algorithmic rankings but is not far off the top tier. Previous scratches suggest he has been handled carefully, and his connections have decent records locally. From post 2, he can save ground all the way and pick up a share if the favored trio underperforms.​

Bad Lineage (post 7) earns some respect on the computer line, where he is listed as a competitive player behind the main trio. The far outside draw is not ideal, but his form cycle suggests he has enough ability to pass tired horses late and grab a minor placing.​

Silent Roar (post 1) and Gran Andrews (post 3) are ranked closer to the bottom on most sheets, but the inside draw and route configuration always give them a chance to work out favorable ground-saving trips.​

Longshots

Silent Roar and Gran Andrews are the logical price horses to consider underneath in exotics, especially if an unexpectedly contested pace develops and compromises the top three. Bad Lineage, from the outside, also qualifies as an appealing mid-price who can outrun his odds if he relaxes early.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race shapes up as a classic single in multi-race wagers for many players. Deadpan simply checks more boxes than his rivals.

Practical wagering options:

• Single Deadpan in the early pick 4 and any pick 5 sequences that include this race.
• In exactas, press Deadpan over Epic Luck and Direct Appeal, while also playing a small saver exacta with Epic Luck over Deadpan.
• For trifectas, key Deadpan on top, with Epic Luck and Direct Appeal in second, and Game Keeper, Bad Lineage, and Silent Roar in third.

Those who wish to take a stand against the chalk can structure a small saver ticket around Epic Luck and Direct Appeal, using them in an exacta box and in horizontal wagers as low-percentage but high-reward alternatives.

Selections

Win: Deadpan

Place: Epic Luck

Show: Direct Appeal

5th Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

6.5 furlongs, West Virginia-bred claiming 15000 non-winners of three races. Field of seven.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 9:02 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

The 6.5 furlong configuration again emphasizes the need for tactical speed and efficient ground usage around two turns. Inside posts have a mild advantage, and early position entering the first bend is critical.​

Off-site race commentary for a very similar field on the next day indicates that Fortunate Son comes off an allowance win and is viewed as well-placed to continue his good form, while Candy Man Can is noted as having won over this course and distance last time and Jack’s Aloha is described as consistent at this class level. This implies a pace scenario in which Fortunate Son and Candy Man Can are prominent early, with Jack’s Aloha tracking from just behind them, and the rest of the field trying to keep up.​

Key Contenders

Fortunate Son (post 2) is the consensus key horse, singled out by multiple handicappers as the top pick and favored in algorithmic rankings. He exits a strong allowance victory and now drops slightly into this claiming condition, a very positive angle. His trainer has a high win percentage at Charles Town, and the jockey has been one of the most effective local riders, especially on horses with tactical speed.​

Candy Man Can (post 1) is highlighted in outside commentary as a last-out course-and-distance winner who remains capable of challenging Fortunate Son today. The rail draw is highly advantageous if he breaks alertly, and his inside trip should allow him to either set or sit just off the pace. His form suggests he is dependable at this distance.​

Jack’s Aloha (post 3) is described in off-site notes as consistent at this class and distance, which is exactly the kind of profile that holds value underneath the top two. He also appears as a second-tier contender on quantitative sheets, reinforcing his status as a reliable runner likely to be in the mix turning for home.​

Secondary Choices

Candy Man Martin (post 7) ranks in the upper-half cluster on a key computer line, suggesting he is capable of a competitive effort even from the outside post. With a reasonable trip, he can settle midpack and make a run into the stretch, though he appears a notch below the top three on pure form.​

Cedar Runs Fiber (post 4) has been scratched a couple of times recently but now appears in a softer spot that matches his ability. Computer metrics identify him as a mid-price horses that can outperform his odds if the pace is stronger than expected.​

Union Branch (post 5) and El Pacho (post 6) have lower ratings and will rely on race flow to get into the trifecta or superfecta. Both are plausible for small slices, particularly if one of the main trio fails to fire.

Longshots

El Pacho, in particular, is flagged by some sheets at a long price but does have enough back class to grab a small share if he is ridden patiently and the leaders overdo it early. He is more of a superfecta inclusion than a realistic win play.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race is a strong candidate for a relatively tight triad approach in vertical wagers.

One solid strategy:

• Focus win betting on whichever of Fortunate Son or Candy Man Can offers better value; Fortunate Son is the more likely winner, but Candy Man Can will be the more attractive if there is a sizable price gap.
• Use Fortunate Son and Candy Man Can heavily in all exacta combinations, with Jack’s Aloha as the primary horse in the second slot.
• Trifectas can key Fortunate Son on top, with Candy Man Can and Jack’s Aloha in second, and Candy Man Martin, Cedar Runs Fiber, and Union Branch in third.

In horizontals, treating Fortunate Son as an A-level anchor and using Candy Man Can and Jack’s Aloha as B-level backups strikes a good balance between coverage and cost.

Selections

Win: Fortunate Son

Place: Candy Man Can

Show: Jack’s Aloha

6th Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

6.5 furlongs, West Virginia-bred maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Field of ten.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 9:32 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This is a deep maiden special with several well-bred two-year-olds from high-percentage barns. At 6.5 furlongs, early speed remains useful, but inexperienced horses can be their own worst enemies at the break and around the turns.

Off-site analysis for a nearly identical future race suggests that Red Dawn Coming is stepping down in class from a tougher maiden group and is seen as a likely top prospect, with My Brothers Angel and Seatherny rated as the main threats. This trio collectively brings more experience and apparent ability than the rest of the field.​

With multiple lightly raced colts and geldings plus two fillies, the probable scenario is a contested but not unmanageable pace, with Red Dawn Coming and Mr Mahomes likely among those pushing forward, while Seatherny and My Brothers Angel can settle behind the early leaders and finish strongly.​

Key Contenders

Red Dawn Coming (post 7) is a consensus key horse, identified as the top selection by at least one major handicapper and described elsewhere as stepping down in class and likely to prove too good after a solid fourth in tougher company. He represents a high-percentage barn and gets one of the top riders on the grounds. His prior experience and demonstrated ability to handle similar distances make him the one to beat.​

Seatherny (post 9) ranks at the top of a key computer-generated line and is singled out alongside Red Dawn Coming and My Brothers Angel in future-race commentary as one of the principal threats. He draws a favorable outside-mid post that allows his rider to assess the pace and drop in behind the leaders. With normal improvement from his early starts, he is a strong win candidate.​

My Brothers Angel (post 10) is also highly rated on algorithmic sheets and appears in textual previews as a main rival to Red Dawn Coming. From the far outside, he will need a clean break to avoid being hung wide, but his ability suggests he can overcome that with a well-timed ride. Trainer and rider have strong local strike rates.​

Secondary Choices

Mr Mahomes (post 1) has solid ratings on at least one computer line and draws the rail, which can be an asset if he leaves the gate sharply. The inside draw will demand that he either go forward or risk being shuffled back along the rail, but his trainer and rider combination is capable, and he is a fair inclusion underneath.​

Fiber Rocks (post 2) and Rock n’Opportunity (post 3) come from a successful local stable that knows how to win with state-bred juveniles. Both project as mid-range win candidates but appealing underneath in exotics given their probable midpack or stalking trips.​

Not My Circus (post 6) is lower on the win-probability spectrum but could step forward significantly in his second or third start. His mid-gate draw gives the rider flexibility in reading the break and developing race shape.

Among the fillies, Spicy Years (post 5) and Julita Bonita (post 4) appear as mid- to lower-tier contenders, but they have enough pedigree and potential improvement to be live longshots for exotics.​

They Not Like Us (post 8) has some of the lower ratings on computer lines and will be a true outsider for win purposes.​

Longshots

Julita Bonita and Spicy Years are noteworthy as longshots that may outrun their odds, especially if the colts get aggressive early and soften each other up. Either filly could sneak into the trifecta at a large price.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is not a race to be overly narrow given the age and fragility of the form.

A reasonable wagering plan:

• In horizontals, treat Red Dawn Coming and Seatherny as co-anchors, with My Brothers Angel as a strong third option.
• In verticals, exactas can key Red Dawn Coming and Seatherny on top, with My Brothers Angel, Mr Mahomes, Seatherny, and Rock n’Opportunity underneath.
• Trifectas that key Red Dawn Coming and Seatherny in the top two positions, while spreading underneath to include My Brothers Angel, Mr Mahomes, Fiber Rocks, and one or two of the price fillies, can deliver value if a longshot fills the third slot.

Given the juvenile nature of the race, strong opinions should be tempered, and bankroll exposure kept moderate.

Selections

Win: Red Dawn Coming

Place: Seatherny

Show: My Brothers Angel

7th Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

7 furlongs, allowance optional claiming 25000 for fillies and mares. Field of seven.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 10:02 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

Seven-furlong allowance races for older fillies and mares at Charles Town tend to be tactically complex. The combination of early-speed types rising from sprints and milers cutting back in trip can produce an honest or even hot pace.

Historical commentary and stakes-level performances highlight Overnight Pow Wow as a high-quality mare with proven speed, frequently described as probable speed of the speed and capable of crossing the wire first in multiple consecutive starts when allowed to use her natural pace. In My Memories, on the rail, has prior races where she showed tactical speed and form good enough to contend at a similar level, while Charge Nurse brings pressuring speed and resilience.​

Given this, the likely scenario is Overnight Pow Wow and Charge Nurse disputing or sharing the lead, with In My Memories saving ground just behind them and the others, including Serenade Me and Malibu Years, trying to unwind from just off the pace.​

Key Contenders

Overnight Pow Wow (post 7) is the clear consensus choice, singled out as the top pick by multiple handicappers and described in future-race analysis as the one to beat after a solid fourth in tougher company. She has a strong local record, including previous stakes and allowance wins, and her tactical versatility allows her to control the race on or near the lead. Her rider-trainer combination has been effective at Charles Town in similar spots.​

In My Memories (post 1) is noted in off-site previews as a logical rebound candidate behind Overnight Pow Wow, with enough back class to pose a serious threat if she returns to her better form. She draws inside with one of the leading riders at Charles Town and can sit a dream trip behind the expected pace battle, waiting for the rail opening turning for home.​

Charge Nurse (post 4) also appears as a key contender in external commentary for a similar upcoming race, described as a mare that must be considered in this type of allowance optional claiming field. She typically shows early speed and can track or press Overnight Pow Wow. If the favorite faces pressure from both sides, Charge Nurse could be the one to outstay the others.​

Secondary Choices

Serenade Me (post 5) ranks as a mid-price but legitimate secondary player on several algorithmic sheets. She tends to run on late and could benefit if the top trio engage in a strong pace duel. Trainer and rider have enough local success to justify including her in trifectas.​

Good Accelebrate (post 3) and Malibu Years (post 6) both have enough ability to be competitive on their best day. Malibu Years, in particular, may offer a good price and has tactical speed to stay within shouting distance of the leaders.​

Juba’s Parade (post 2) is ranked lower on most quantitative lines and will need a significant improvement to threaten for the win but remains a possible exotic filler.​

Longshots

Malibu Years and Juba’s Parade will likely offer the longer win odds among the non-favorites. Malibu Years is the more appealing of the two from a value standpoint, given her ability to stay in touch early and the potential for improvement off her current form cycle.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race is a central piece of the late pick 4, and Overnight Pow Wow will be used as a major anchor.

Suggested approach:

• Single Overnight Pow Wow on some late pick 4 or pick 3 tickets; on others, include In My Memories as a backup.
• Key Overnight Pow Wow on top in exactas with In My Memories and Charge Nurse underneath.
• Use trifectas that key Overnight Pow Wow and either In My Memories or Charge Nurse in the first two positions, with Serenade Me and Malibu Years in third.

For those seeking a mild upset, exacta combinations such as In My Memories over Overnight Pow Wow and Charge Nurse, or Charge Nurse over Overnight Pow Wow, are viable alternatives.

Selections

Win: Overnight Pow Wow

Place: In My Memories

Show: Charge Nurse

8th Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

6.5 furlongs, allowance optional claiming 25000 for three-year-olds and upward. Field of ten.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 10:32 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This is a deep and competitive allowance optional claiming sprint with several speed-oriented geldings and multiple strong barns represented.

Falcon Blue stands out as a horse with demonstrated forward speed and recent strong efforts over the strip, while Ozone is a capable stalker who can sit just behind the front line. Im the Director and Hammer also possess tactical or early speed, while veterans like Nocashrefunds and Boss E Boogs typically sit a bit farther off the pace.​

Given this mix, it is reasonable to expect a contested early pace, with Hammer from the rail trying to hold inside position, Falcon Blue and Ozone pressing from outside posts, and Im the Director and Frosty the Giant in the next flight. Such a scenario could favor a horse with tactical speed who can sit just off the dueling leaders.

Key Contenders

Ozone (post 8) is a consensus key horse, listed as the primary selection by at least one major handicapper and ranked among the top two on a primary computer line. He brings consistent allowance-level form and has proven effective at 6.5 furlongs over this track. His post gives the rider a good tactical vantage point, allowing him to track the inside speed and launch a decisive move on the far turn.​

Falcon Blue (post 7) is the top-rated horse in at least one major computerized set for this race. His blend of early speed and class fits the profile of a horse who can either take the lead or sit just off it without being used too hard. If he breaks sharply and clears, he is dangerous to take this field gate to wire.​

Hammer (post 1) draws the rail with arguably the best local jockey and comes from a barn that knows how to win at Charles Town. Although not featured as a top pick on all public sheets, his inside draw and rider combination make him a serious win candidate. If he can hold the rail and avoid early pressure from the outside, he is a potential upsetter.​

Nocashrefunds (post 9) is a battle-tested veteran who appears as an upper-middle contender in several algorithmic rankings. While he may not be as sharp as in his prime, he can sit midpack and rally for a share if the pace gets fast.​

Secondary Choices

Im the Director (post 2) is a mid-level contender on quantitative lines but has the benefit of a ground-saving inside post and a capable rider. He should be in the second flight early and can improve position if the leaders falter turning for home.​

Pure Panic (post 3) and Frosty the Giant (post 4) are roughly in the same tier, requiring some racing luck but having enough ability to factor underneath at decent prices.​

Paymengold (post 5) and Lord of Cork (post 6) appear lower on most rankings and may need a pace meltdown or significant improvement to win, but they are not impossible for lower rungs of vertical exotics.​

Boss E Boogs (post 10) is likely to be the biggest longshot in the field on both public and computer evaluations. From the far outside and at this class level, he will face a difficult task.​

Longshots

Among the longshots, Hammer is the most interesting overlay candidate, assuming the public underestimates him relative to the top-rated pair. Despite not being the primary pick on some sheets, the rail draw and top rider make him a legitimate threat at a likely better price than Ozone or Falcon Blue.

Pure Panic is also a sneaky price play for inclusion in trifectas and superfectas, especially if he can tuck in behind the first flight and avoid traffic.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is an excellent race to spread a bit in horizontals while still maintaining a strong opinion.

One structure:

• Treat Ozone and Falcon Blue as A-level horses in the late pick 4.
• Include Hammer and Nocashrefunds as B-level backups.
• In exactas, focus on combinations like Ozone over Falcon Blue, Hammer, and Nocashrefunds, and Falcon Blue over Ozone and Hammer.
• Use trifectas that key Ozone and Falcon Blue in the top two positions, with Hammer, Im the Director, and Nocashrefunds in the third slot.

For value players, small win-place bets on Hammer at a price, combined with exacta boxes of Hammer with Ozone and Falcon Blue, can be a viable strategy.

Selections

Win: Ozone

Place: Falcon Blue

Show: Hammer

9th Race – Charles Town – Thursday, December 11, 2025

6.5 furlongs, West Virginia-bred claiming 5000 non-winners of three races for fillies and mares. Field of twelve.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 11:02 PM Eastern.

Pace Analysis

With a full field of twelve state-bred fillies and mares at 6.5 furlongs, the race is almost certain to feature a lively pace. Several entrants have historically shown front-running or pace-pressing tendencies at shorter distances, and the configuration encourages aggressive riding into the first turn.

The inside post horses Still Grumpy, Butterfly Effect, and Funny Road all have enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed, while mid-field entrants like Addy Mae, Quinn Elia, and Sister Winnie can stalk the leaders. Outside runners such as Lovely Odds, Moonshine Mama, and Juba’s Topaz will either need to be sent hard early or risk losing ground three wide around two turns.

Given this structure, the most likely winning scenario involves a filly who can secure position in the first flight without working too hard and still have enough left to finish. Deep closers will need both racing luck and a strong meltdown to win.

Key Contenders

Still Grumpy (post 1) is identified as the top choice by at least one prominent handicapper and is a highly logical contender from the rail for a trainer with a solid Charles Town record. Her inside draw allows for a ground-saving stalking or pressing trip, and her overall profile fits the non-winners-of-three claiming condition. With a capable rider who has been winning at a good clip locally, she is a primary win candidate.​

Addy Mae (post 4) is the top-rated horse on at least one major computer line for this race. Her mid-gate draw is advantageous, giving her flexibility to sit just off the lead or press the pace if necessary. With a good trip, she is a co-likely winner alongside Still Grumpy.​

Juba’s Topaz (post 10) appears prominently in the upper tier of the same quantitative sheets and brings a consistent profile to this level. The outside draw is not ideal, but she has enough tactical speed to stay involved early and may trip out if she can slot in behind the first flight around the first turn.​

Dream Leader (post 12) also receives strong computer support, ranking in the top cluster despite the extreme outside post. She will need a very clever ride to avoid losing significant ground, but if the pace is fast and the field fans out, she can circle late.​

Secondary Choices

Butterfly Effect (post 2) is a mid-priced filly who ranks reasonably well and can save ground from her inside post. If she breaks cleanly, she can sit just behind Still Grumpy and Addy Mae, and could easily outrun her odds.​

Lovely Odds (post 8) possesses a name that mirrors her likely position on the tote board; she is not the top pick on any major sheet but shows enough ability to be in the mix for minor awards. She will need the right trip from mid-outside to maximize her chances.​

Sing Me to Sleep (post 11), Moonshine Mama (post 9), Funny Road (post 3), Sister Winnie (post 6), Bet Your Boots (post 7), and Quinn Elia (post 5) all appear in the mid- to lower tiers of most computer rankings and will largely depend on race flow and trip quality to get into the exacta or trifecta.​

Longshots

Among the bigger prices, Sister Winnie and Bet Your Boots stand out as potential superfecta fillers. Their ratings place them well down the list, but they have enough experience at the level to pick off tiring rivals late if the leaders go too quickly.​

Quinn Elia, from post 5, is flagged as a significantly lower-rated option and will need a dramatic form reversal to threaten the top spots.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This finale is wide open and is best approached with a spread mentality in multi-race wagers.

Suggested structure:

• In horizontals, use Still Grumpy, Addy Mae, Juba’s Topaz, and Dream Leader as A-level or strong contenders.
• Include Butterfly Effect and Lovely Odds as B-level backups.
• In exactas, focus on Still Grumpy and Addy Mae over the other three main contenders, plus Butterfly Effect at a price.
• Trifectas can key Still Grumpy and Addy Mae in the top two slots, while spreading in third with Juba’s Topaz, Dream Leader, Butterfly Effect, and Lovely Odds.

Because of the field size and volatility, vertical exotics offer good potential value, but bets should be sized conservatively in relation to bankroll.

Selections

Win: Still Grumpy

Place: Addy Mae

Show: Juba’s Topaz

Jockey Notes and Insights

Charles Town’s rider colony is dominated by several high-percentage jockeys, many of whom appear repeatedly on tonight’s card. Data compiled over a recent multi-year period show exceptionally strong win and in-the-money rates for several of them.​

Arnaldo Bocachica is the most dominant local rider, with an approximate win rate approaching 38 percent and in-the-money rate above 65 percent in a large sample of Charles Town mounts. He rides Candy Connection in Race 2, Pico Plat in Race 3, Red Dawn Coming in Race 6, In My Memories in Race 7, and Hammer in Race 8. His presence typically indicates a live mount, and handicappers often upgrade horses when he is aboard.​

J D Acosta has a win rate above 30 percent and an in-the-money rate near 55 percent at Charles Town in recent data. He picks up the mount on My Brothers Angel in Race 6, Lovely Odds in Race 9, and has historically been effective at working out ground-saving trips from inside and mid posts.​

Moises Santaella posts a mid-20s win rate with a strong show rate around 60 percent, making him one of the more efficient riders at the track. He rides Woke Up in Love in Race 1, Fortunate Son in Race 5, Boss E Boogs in Race 8, and Addy Mae in Race 9. His mounts typically take money, and he is especially effective on horses with early or tactical speed.​

Reshawn Latchman, with a win rate near 20 percent and a high place/show rate exceeding 60 percent, is another rider who consistently gets his mounts into the frame. He rides Cedar Runs Fiber in Race 5, Overnight Pow Wow in Race 7, and Im the Director in Race 8. His presence is a positive sign when seeking value horses underneath in exotics.​

Sunday Diaz Jr, Warren Ebow III, Victor Rodriguez, and others such as Justin Lewis and Grant Whitacre are competent locals with varying degrees of success. Diaz, in particular, has a win rate over 20 percent, making his mounts like Still Grumpy in Race 9 notable. Ebow’s assignments on Subject to Change and River Warrior Rvf are also noteworthy, given his success in getting mid-level claiming stock to compete above expectations.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Charles Town trainer statistics show several barns with strikingly high win percentages and strong in-the-money records in recent seasons.​

The Farrior barn is among the most productive at Charles Town, with a win rate above 30 percent and a show rate over 60 percent in a large sample. Tonight, this stable sends out Pico Plat in Race 3, Deadpan in Race 4, Red Dawn Coming and My Brothers Angel in Race 6, and Good Accelebrate and Pure Panic on the later card. Farrior runners are typically very well spotted and ready to fire first off the claim or layoff, making his horses natural inclusions in all serious wagers.​

Ollie Figgins III shows an excellent win rate exceeding 40 percent in more limited samples, coupled with a high in-the-money percentage. His best mount tonight is Candy Connection in Race 2. When this barn shows up with a short-priced horse, that runner is usually live.​

Ronney W Brown has a win rate in the mid-30s and a strong record of landing in the trio. Fortunate Son in Race 5 and Butterfly Effect in Race 9 come from this operation, and both should be treated with respect in their respective spots.​

John Carlisle posts a win rate above 30 percent with strong place and show figures. His entrants include Baron’s Legacy in Race 1 and Super Puncher in Race 2, both of whom appear prominently in computer rankings. This barn does well with state-bred claimers and allowance runners.​

Jeff Runco is a perennial powerhouse at Charles Town, with a win rate over 30 percent and a long record of success at all levels. River Warrior Rvf in Race 3 is his main representative tonight and is a logical contender based on barn strength alone.​

Other notable trainers include Kevin Joy, Cynthia McKee, and Timothy Grams, all with strong local credentials and solid in-the-money records. Joy’s horses, such as Hammer and Lovely Odds, often outrun their odds, while McKee’s Overnight Pow Wow is a flagship mare for her operation.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

From a wagering standpoint, tonight’s Charles Town card offers a blend of strong favorites suitable as singles and several spots where value-oriented players can take calculated swings.

For horizontal wagers:

• One viable early pick 4 or pick 5 structure is to lean slightly on Subject to Change and Baron’s Legacy in Race 1; single or heavily weight Candy Connection in Race 2; spread modestly in Race 3 around Pico Plat, Favorite Road, and Bid On Blue; and then single Deadpan in Race 4. This approach emphasizes the strongest opinions while allowing some coverage in the more open third race.​
• In the middle of the card, Fortunate Son in Race 5 and the trio of Red Dawn Coming, Seatherny, and My Brothers Angel in Race 6 provide a natural bridge into the late sequence. Race 6, in particular, should not be treated too narrowly given the juvenile uncertainty.​
• For the late pick 4 (Races 6 through 9), a practical structure is:
  • Race 6: Red Dawn Coming, Seatherny, My Brothers Angel as A-level, with Mr Mahomes as a B-level backup.
  • Race 7: Overnight Pow Wow as the main single, with In My Memories as a backup.
  • Race 8: Ozone and Falcon Blue as co-anchors, plus Hammer as a value backup.
  • Race 9: Use Still Grumpy, Addy Mae, Juba’s Topaz, and Dream Leader as core contenders, with Butterfly Effect and Lovely Odds as backups.​

For vertical wagers, the best value opportunities appear to be:

• Race 5, where Fortunate Son will take money but Candy Man Can and Jack’s Aloha both have strong credentials and could produce worthwhile exacta and trifecta returns in combination, especially if one of them wins at a decent price.​
• Race 6, where the two fillies Spicy Years and Julita Bonita are longshots that can be included in the third slot of trifectas beneath the principal trio of Red Dawn Coming, Seatherny, and My Brothers Angel. A single longshot hitting the board in a two-year-old race can significantly inflate payouts.​
• Race 8, where Hammer projects as a potentially overlooked rail horse for a top rider. Exacta boxes pairing Hammer with Ozone and Falcon Blue, and trifectas that use Hammer heavily in second and third, may yield above-expected value if the public over-concentrates on the outside pair.​
• Race 9, where the large field and multiple plausible contenders create fertile ground for deep trifectas and superfectas. Emphasizing Still Grumpy and Addy Mae on top while rotating Juba’s Topaz, Dream Leader, Butterfly Effect, and Lovely Odds underneath is a sensible way to chase a larger payoff without excessive ticket cost.​

Overall, the card rewards a balanced approach: respect the clear class and form edges of horses like Deadpan, Fortunate Son, Red Dawn Coming, and Overnight Pow Wow, but leverage the competitive mid-priced runners such as Candy Man Can, Hammer, Malibu Years, and the better-credentialed fillies in the finale to maximize return in exotics.