Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Tonight’s nine-race card at Charles Town features a full slate of claiming and starter events, highlighted by the seventh race, a West Virginia-bred maiden special weight with a $30,600 purse. The card includes two starter optional claiming events and multiple opportunities for horses seeking their first or second lifetime wins. Post time for the opener is 7:00 PM Eastern.
The scratch list shows several horses with recent veterinary issues, including Store Sale and Bold Look in the early races, plus several others with steward-related scratches. Bettors should monitor the official scratches and changes up to post time for each race.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current weather forecasts for Charles Town, West Virginia indicate very cold conditions for December 12, with daytime temperatures reaching approximately 4°C (39°F) and overnight lows around -1°C (30°F). The track is expected to be overcast with minimal precipitation risk, though wintry conditions remain possible. Given the cold temperatures and recent dry conditions, the racing surface should be listed as fast or good, though the official track condition must be confirmed closer to post time through track communications.
The bullring configuration at Charles Town, with its six-furlong oval and tight turns, places extreme importance on early positioning and tactical speed. Cold weather typically results in a tighter, faster surface that further benefits frontrunners.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Charles Town’s unique configuration creates pronounced biases that significantly impact race outcomes. Historical data confirms that inside posts produce the highest winning percentages across all distances.
In sprint races, particularly at the 4.5-furlong distance, inside positions demonstrate overwhelming advantages. Posts 1 and 2 each produce approximately 16 percent of winners, while the far outside posts, especially post 9, show markedly reduced success rates at just 6.5 percent. The track’s tight turns reward horses that save ground, making early positioning critical for success.
The prevailing bias strongly favors early speed. When the track rides fast, closers face significant challenges as frontrunners can maintain wire-to-wire control. At the 4.5-furlong distance, front-runners and pace-pressers win at an exceptionally high rate of 57-58 percent. For 6.5-furlong and 7-furlong events, the inside bias softens slightly but remains relevant, with posts 1-3 continuing to outperform.
For route races, post position matters less as horses have more time to establish position, though the inside still produces the highest win percentages historically.
First Race Analysis
Post Time: 7:00 PM Eastern
A field of ten lines up for this $12,400 claiming event over 6 1/2 furlongs for non-winners of two races. The pace projection appears moderate with several horses preferring to race from off the pace.
Pace analysis indicates that none of the entrants show pure need-the-lead tendencies, suggesting a honest rather than hotly contested early pace. This should allow tactical horses to secure favorable forward positions without exhausting themselves in the opening stages.
Key contenders include Complex Cat from post 2 with Justin Lewis riding for trainer Stacey Viands. Lewis maintains a solid win rate at the meet and this three-year-old shows consistent form. Super Lino from post 4 breaks from an ideal inside position with Benjamin Cacha-Padilla aboard for Sylvester McGill. The inside post provides ground-saving advantage around the tight turns.
Jake’s Affection from post 7 merits consideration as a secondary choice. Edgar Villasmil rides for trainer Kelly Lynn Deiter, and this four-year-old shows ability to finish when given the right setup. The middle post should not create significant difficulties at this distance.
Coolkid from post 6 with J.D. Acosta riding for Viands represents value at higher odds. This four-year-old has faced tougher company and the slight weight break could prove beneficial.
The betting strategy centers on horses with inside posts and tactical speed. With the track bias favoring early position, horses breaking from posts 1-4 hold definitive advantages.
Selections:
Win: Complex Cat
Place: Super Lino
Show: Jake’s Affection
Second Race Analysis
Post Time: 7:32 PM Eastern
This $12,400 claiming race for fillies and mares over seven furlongs draws a competitive field of thirteen. The added distance and larger field amplify the importance of post position and tactical positioning into the first turn.
Pace analysis reveals potential for a moderately fast pace with several forwardly placed runners. Dream Street Rose from post 7 and Mitole Candy from post 8 should ensure honest early fractions, though neither displays pure early lick.
Key contenders include Dream Street Rose with J.D. Acosta riding for Michael Jones Jr. This four-year-old filly has notched competitive speed figures and handles the distance appropriately. Mitole Candy from post 8 with Javier Rivera for Marshall Campbell breaks from a challenging post but possesses tactical speed to overcome the wide draw.
Late Night Spirit from post 5 with Maximo Chilo riding for Elaine Soldo rates as a secondary choice. This five-year-old mare shows consistent form and the slight weight break aids her chances. The middle post allows for tactical positioning.
Longshot possibilities include Karpathian Dream from post 10 with Victor Rodriguez riding for David Rose. At 6-1 on the morning line, this mare has shown flashes of ability and could rally if the pace collapses.
The wagering angle focuses on horses with inside to middle posts that can secure forward position without being used too hard. Outside posts in this large field create significant ground loss around two turns.
Selections:
Win: Dream Street Rose
Place: Mitole Candy
Show: Late Night Spirit
Third Race Analysis
Post Time: 8:02 PM Eastern
Fourteen fillies and mares contest this $14,600 claiming event over seven furlongs. The condition requiring non-winners since June 12 or never having won four races creates a competitive mix of consistent performers and regressive types.
Pace analysis indicates a contested pace with Woohoo Jackie Blue from post 5 and Streetcorner from post 6 showing front-running tendencies. The large field suggests a honest pace, setting up for closers.
Key contenders include Woohoo Jackie Blue with Justin Lewis riding for Anthony Farrior. This six-year-old mare shows consistent form and tactical speed to secure forward position from the middle post. Streetcorner from post 6 with Arnaldo Bocachica for Stacey Viands also possesses early speed and draws well.
Warrior Bernice from post 2 with Fredy Peltroche for Marlin Miller rates as a secondary choice. The inside post provides ground-saving advantage and this four-year-old has shown ability to win at this level.
Longshot value appears with Never So Lucky from post 14. This five-year-old Irish-bred mare carries Luis Angel Batista for Konstantinos Harigeorgiou. The far outside post creates difficulty, but the 12-1 morning line odds offer value for a horse that could improve in the right pace scenario.
The betting strategy emphasizes tactical speed and inside posts given the field size and track configuration. Horses breaking from posts 1-5 hold clear advantages.
Selections:
Win: Woohoo Jackie Blue
Place: Streetcorner
Show: Warrior Bernice
Fourth Race Analysis
Post Time: 8:32 PM Eastern
This starter optional claiming event for fillies and mares over 4 1/2 furlongs showcases eight runners with a $22,700 purse. The abbreviated distance places extreme emphasis on early speed and post position.
Pace analysis projects a blistering early pace with multiple horses showing pure speed. This distance consistently produces wire-to-wire winners at a 57 percent rate, making the break and initial positioning paramount.
Key contenders include Stryda from post 1 with Anthony Mawing riding for Michael Jones Jr. The rail post provides maximum advantage and this five-year-old mare shows consistent early speed. Mor Mor Mor from post 7 with Moises Santaella for Ronney Brown breaks from the far outside but shows enough tactical speed to overcome the post.
Palmary from post 4 with Juan Nunez for Kent Knudsen rates as a secondary choice. The middle post allows for efficient positioning and this five-year-old mare has faced tougher company.
Forgotten Gift from post 5 with Denis Araujo for Charles Frock represents value at higher odds. The post position provides tactical options and the five-year-old mare has shown ability to compete at this level.
The wagering approach must focus on early speed types with inside to middle posts. Outside posts face nearly insurmountable disadvantages at this distance regardless of talent level.
Selections:
Win: Stryda
Place: Palmary
Show: Mor Mor Mor
Fifth Race Analysis
Post Time: 9:02 PM Eastern
Eight fillies and mares contest this $18,200 claiming sprint over 4 1/2 furlongs for non-winners of two races. The restricted conditions create a competitive field seeking their second career victory.
Pace analysis indicates extreme early speed dominance with multiple horses showing front-running style. The track bias at this distance heavily favors horses that can clear the field and establish early control.
Key contenders include Miss Im Pulsive from post 6 with Arnaldo Bocachica riding for Anthony Farrior. This three-year-old filly shows tactical speed and breaks from a favorable middle post. Diakonissa from post 7 with Christian Hiraldo for Michael Jones Jr. possesses early speed and draws well for the distance.
Climate Change from post 3 with Moises Santaella for Ronney Brown rates as a secondary choice. The inside post provides ground-saving advantage and this three-year-old has shown improvement in recent starts.
Longshot possibilities include Another Fine Juba from post 2 with Fredy Peltroche for Wade Sanderson. The inside post and 8-1 morning line odds provide value for a filly that could improve with the right trip.
The betting strategy centers on early speed horses with favorable posts. Given the 4.5-furlong distance and track bias, horses breaking from posts 1-5 hold significant advantages.
Selections:
Win: Miss Im Pulsive
Place: Diakonissa
Show: Climate Change
Sixth Race Analysis
Post Time: 9:32 PM Eastern
This starter optional claiming event for fillies and mares over 6 1/2 furlongs draws the largest field on the card with fourteen entrants. The distance requires tactical speed while providing more opportunity for midpack runners to secure favorable position.
Pace analysis projects an honest pace with Fine Whining from post 1, Dissolute from post 3, and Notiptoni from post 4 showing early speed. The field size suggests a contested pace without a complete collapse.
Key contenders include Fine Whining from post 1 with Juan Nunez riding for Javier Contreras. The rail post provides maximum advantage and this five-year-old mare shows consistent tactical speed. Dissolute from post 3 with Justin Lewis for Daniel Siculietano also breaks from an advantageous inside post and possesses early speed.
Notiptoni from post 4 with J.D. Acosta for Kent Knudsen rates as a secondary choice. This three-year-old filly has shown ability and the middle post allows for efficient positioning.
Longshot value appears with Gilda’s Girl from post 9. Larry Reynolds rides for Bobby Barber at 12-1 morning line odds. The five-year-old mare has faced tougher competition and could rally if the pace proves too fast.
The wagering approach emphasizes inside posts and tactical speed given the field size and distance. Horses breaking from posts 1-5 hold clear advantages in securing forward position without losing ground around the tight turns.
Selections:
Win: Fine Whining
Place: Dissolute
Show: Notiptoni
Seventh Race Analysis
Post Time: 10:02 PM Eastern
This maiden special weight event for accredited West Virginia-breds over 6 1/2 furlongs features thirteen runners competing for a $30,600 purse. The restricted conditions typically produce formful results with horses showing clear ability differences.
Pace analysis indicates moderate early speed with King Uni from post 1 and Megs Golden Boy from post 2 showing forward style. The distance allows for tactical positioning without the extreme speed bias seen in sprints.
Key contenders include King Uni from post 1 with J.D. Acosta riding for Manolo Mangual. The rail post provides maximum advantage and this three-year-old shows consistent workouts and improving form. Megs Golden Boy from post 2 with Anthony Mawing for Kevin Boykins also breaks from an ideal inside position and shows ability.
Aldre from post 3 with Javier Rivera for Michael Jones Jr. rates as a secondary choice. The inside post provides ground-saving advantage and this three-year-old has shown flashes of ability in recent starts.
Longshot possibilities include Mille Parole from post 13 with J.D. Acosta for Anthony Farrior. The far outside post creates difficulty, but the 15-1 morning line odds offer value for a three-year-old that could improve with experience.
The betting strategy focuses on horses with inside posts and improving form. Given the restricted conditions and distance, tactical position and breeding quality become important factors.
Selections:
Win: King Uni
Place: Megs Golden Boy
Show: Aldre
Eighth Race Analysis
Post Time: 10:32 PM Eastern
This allowance event over 4 1/2 furlongs for non-winners of races other than maiden, claiming, or starter events draws eight runners. The abbreviated distance places extreme emphasis on early speed and post position.
Pace analysis projects extreme early speed dominance with Pleasenthanku from post 3 and Larz from post 4 showing front-running ability. This distance consistently produces wire-to-wire winners, making the break critical.
Key contenders include Pleasenthanku from post 3 with Sunday Diaz Jr. riding for Javier Contreras. The middle post allows for efficient positioning and this three-year-old shows tactical speed. Larz from post 4 with Moises Santaella for Ronney Brown also possesses early speed and draws well.
Secession from post 2 with Juan Nunez for Jean Adorno rates as a secondary choice. The inside post provides ground-saving advantage and this five-year-old gelding has shown ability at this level.
Longshot value appears with Summerstateofmind from post 5 with Juan Belisario for Michelle Knoblauch. The 10-1 morning line odds provide value for a four-year-old that could improve with the right pace scenario.
The wagering approach must focus on early speed types with inside to middle posts. Outside posts face significant disadvantages at this distance regardless of closing ability.
Selections:
Win: Pleasenthanku
Place: Larz
Show: Secession
Ninth Race Analysis
Post Time: 11:02 PM Eastern
The nightcap features a $12,400 maiden claiming event over seven furlongs with fourteen runners seeking their first victory. The large field and distance create opportunities for horses with tactical speed and closing ability.
Pace analysis indicates moderate early speed with Doug’s Triumph from post 2 and Tom’s Gold from post 3 showing forward style. The distance allows for honest pacing without the extreme speed bias seen in sprints.
Key contenders include Tom’s Gold from post 3 with Javier Rivera riding for Michael Jones Jr. The inside post provides ground-saving advantage and this three-year-old colt shows consistent form. Ring Fund from post 1 with Justin Lewis for Stacey Viands breaks from the rail and shows tactical speed.
Tex from post 6 with Warren Ebow III for Stacey Viands rates as a secondary choice. The weight break and inside post provide advantages for this three-year-old colt.
Longshot possibilities include Daguerre from post 13 with Christian Maldonado for Timothy Shanley. The 15-1 morning line odds offer value for a three-year-old that could improve with the right trip.
The betting strategy emphasizes inside posts and tactical speed given the field size. Horses breaking from posts 1-5 hold clear advantages in securing favorable position around the tight turns.
Selections:
Win: Tom’s Gold
Place: Ring Fund
Show: Tex
Jockey Notes and Insights
J.D. Acosta rides multiple live mounts throughout the card, including King Uni in the seventh race and Notiptoni in the sixth. Acosta maintains a solid win rate at the meet and his inside post assignments provide tactical advantages.
Justin Lewis appears on several contenders including Complex Cat in the opener and Woohoo Jackie Blue in the third. Lewis understands the track geometry and gets the most from horses with tactical speed.
Javier Rivera rides Tom’s Gold in the ninth and Aldre in the seventh, both from favorable inside posts. Rivera’s timing and positioning around the tight turns make him dangerous in these assignments.
Juan Nunez draws the rail on Fine Whining in the sixth and Secession in the eighth, both live contenders. The rail post maximizes his strengths as a speed rider.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Michael Jones Jr. saddles multiple contenders including Dream Street Rose in the second, Stryda in the fourth, and Tom’s Gold in the ninth. Jones maintains a productive barn and his horses typically show tactical speed suited to the track configuration.
Stacey Viands enters several live runners including Complex Cat in the first, Ring Fund in the ninth, and Streetcorner in the third. Viands understands the claiming conditions and places horses advantageously.
Javier Contreras trains Pleasenthanku in the eighth and Fine Whining in the sixth, both possessing early speed suited to their respective distances. Contreras maintains solid form at the meet.
Kent Knudsen trains Notiptoni in the sixth and Palmary in the fourth, both from tactical post positions. Knudsen’s barn produces consistent runners that fit their conditions.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The track bias toward early speed and inside posts creates clear wagering strategies. In the 4.5-furlong sprints, emphasize horses breaking from posts 1-5 with demonstrated early speed. The post position disadvantage for outside posts is so pronounced that horses drawing posts 7-9 face nearly insurmountable obstacles regardless of talent.
The 6.5-furlong and 7-furlong distances provide more opportunities for tactical horses, though inside posts remain advantageous. Look for horses that can secure forward position entering the first turn without being used too hard.
Value plays emerge when horses with inside posts and tactical speed are overlooked in the betting. The second race offers value with Late Night Spirit at 6-1 morning line odds. The fifth race provides longshot potential with Another Fine Juba at 8-1 from the inside post.
The sixth race features Fine Whining from the rail at 5-2 morning line odds, offering value given the rail advantage and tactical speed. The ninth race presents value with Tex from post 6 at 8-1 morning line odds, providing weight break advantages and inside positioning.
Multi-race wagering strategies should emphasize singles on horses with clear post position and tactical advantages. The fourth race with Stryda from post 1 and the eighth race with Pleasenthanku from post 3 represent potential single opportunities in horizontal wagers.
The cold weather and fast track conditions further emphasize early speed, making frontrunners and pace-pressers even more dangerous than usual. Adjust handicapping accordingly and weight early speed heavily in selections.
