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Churchill Downs hosts the 27th running of the Claiming Crown on Saturday, November 15, 2025, featuring 11 races that celebrate the heart and hustle of claiming horses with eight Claiming Crown tilts and the Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes. The featured Chilukki Stakes, carrying a $300,000 purse, is the third race on the card and showcases top fillies and mares including probable favorite Ragtime, One Magic Philly, and Shred the Gnar.

Through the first two weeks of the Fall Meet, the jockey standings are led by Jose Ortiz with 14 wins, followed closely by Tyler Gaffalione with 11 wins and Irad Ortiz Jr. with 10 victories. Trainer Brad Cox has established dominance with a 9-6 lead over Steve Asmussen, with Brendan Walsh in third position with five wins. Cox continues his impressive form at Churchill Downs, maintaining a 28.6% win rate at the track.

Weather and Track Conditions

Saturday’s forecast calls for partly sunny skies with temperatures reaching a high near 71°F and a low around 56°F, with southwest winds at 9-14 mph and gusts up to 24 mph. There is a 50% chance of showers later in the evening. The morning temperature of 56°F should provide ideal racing conditions with a fast dirt track expected throughout the card.

The track surface is anticipated to be fast and fair for the dirt races, with the turf course expected to be firm for races 5, 8, and 11. Current Fall Meet conditions have shown the track is racing evenly without significant bias toward early speed or closers.

Posts 4-6 and stalkers in dirt sprints have been controlling the winner’s circle, winning 49% of races through the first two weeks of the Fall Meet. At Churchill Downs, post position 5 has historically shown exceptional performance, producing 22% of winners in dirt sprints and 17% of winners in routes. Inside posts perform better in route races over one mile, with 15% of winners coming from rail positions. On the dirt track, almost 30% of route winners have been drawn from posts 3 and 4.

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight

Post Time

1:00 PM

Pace Analysis

This 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for two-year-olds sold for $65,000 or less sets up as a moderately paced affair with Valley of Kings and Happy Prince expected to contest the early lead. Project Ace has shown early tactical speed in his races and should be forwardly placed from post 3. The demanding distance will test stamina as most runners are stretching out around two turns for the first time.

Key Contenders

Valley of Kings, trained by Josie Carroll and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., brings the highest profile to this field as a son of Gun Runner. Handicappers view him as the class of the field based on breeding and connections. Quarry from the powerful Thomas Drury Jr. barn with Tyler Gaffalione aboard is receiving strong support as a play-for-pay debut runner at 3-1 morning line odds. The colt is a son of Quality Road and shows strong workouts leading into this debut. Project Ace, trained by Dale Romans with Corey Lanerie up, adds tactical speed and experience from his previous starts.

Secondary Choices

Happy Prince for Mark Casse with Jose Ortiz represents a stable that excels with first-time starters, though the connections suggest patience may be warranted. Props from the Keith Desormeaux barn with James Graham brings experience and breeding that suggests improvement at this distance. The gelding has shown ability in previous starts and the added distance should benefit his running style.

Longshots

Tazzy at 15-1 morning line offers value if able to handle the two-turn configuration, showing flashes of ability in previous efforts. Onyx Outlaw represents trainer John Alexander Ortiz and could surprise at a price if the pace sets up favorably.

Selections

Win: Valley of Kings
Place: Quarry
Show: Project Ace

Race 2: Starter Allowance

Post Time

1:29 PM

Pace Analysis

This 1 1/16-mile starter allowance for fillies and mares should unfold at a moderate tempo with Dawn After Dawn and Aviso likely to establish the early fractions. Faire Plaisir from the Barry King barn figures to stalk the pace under Florent Geroux. The route distance favors runners with proven stamina at a mile or over.

Key Contenders

Faire Plaisir represents one of the more intriguing plays on the card for trainer Barry King with Florent Geroux, showing good form and tactical versatility. Miss Ellary for Lauren Robson with Tyler Gaffalione brings proven route ability and has been training forwardly. Bolt On the Rocks entered as an also-eligible due to veterinary issues but would be dangerous if drawing into the race.

Secondary Choices

Aviso with Jane Elliott aboard offers early speed and could steal this race if able to control the pace from post 2. Vino Tiempo represents solid connections and shows improvement with the distance. She’s Not a Joke brings closing punch for Matt Williams and could benefit from a contested pace scenario.

Longshots

Dawn After Dawn scratched as also-eligible but was receiving attention at 12-1. Mizmalice at 20-1 represents longshot value if the pace collapses.

Selections

Win: Faire Plaisir
Place: Miss Ellary
Show: Aviso

Race 3: Chilukki Stakes (Grade 3)

Post Time

1:58 PM

Race Conditions: STAKES. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $300,000. Chilukki Stakes Presented by Resolute Racing. FOR FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three-year-olds carry 118 lbs, older horses carry 121 lbs. This is a Grade 3 stakes race featuring a compact seven-horse field of quality fillies and mares competing at one mile on Churchill Downs’ main dirt track.

Running Style and Pace Dynamics

The pace scenario for the Chilukki Stakes sets up as moderately contested with potential for tactical maneuvering throughout. Shred the Gnar figures as the likeliest pacesetter, bringing proven early speed under Luis Saez, one of the nation’s premier pace riders. The daughter of Into Mischief demonstrated gate-to-wire ability in her last two victories, controlling fractions while drawing clear impressively.

One Magic Philly presents the primary tactical threat to any pace scenario, showing versatility to press or stalk from her rail-adjacent post 6 under Tyler Gaffalione. Her recent Keeneland allowance victory came while tracking from second position, suggesting she possesses the tactical speed to engage if needed. Impel adds another dimension from post 1 with Florent Geroux, capable of stalking or sitting third under patient handling.

The back half of the field comprises closers and deep closers who will depend on honest fractions up front. Ragtime, the morning line favorite at 8-5, has demonstrated her best efforts when rallying from mid-pack or farther back under Junior Alvarado. Her recent pattern shows she requires racing room and momentum through the stretch to unleash her powerful late kick. Literate, Zadorsky, and Runaway Diva all profile as horses needing pace to chase, creating potential for a late-developing race if the early fractions prove moderate.

The one-mile distance at Churchill Downs starts near the gap and features a relatively short run to the first turn, potentially disadvantaging horses drawn outside or those requiring time to establish position. The configuration favors tactical speed, though the lone turn creates opportunities for closers if the pace proves demanding. With only seven runners, traffic should not present significant issues, though post position could influence tactical decisions early.

Shred the Gnar

Shred the Gnar represents the most intriguing variable in this year’s Chilukki Stakes, returning from a six-month layoff following dominant performances earlier in 2025. The $610,000 daughter of Into Mischief out of Aspen Light by Bernardini brings an appealing combination of tactical speed, proven class, and significant improvement trajectory.

Her most recent start on May 2 at Churchill Downs produced a visually stunning seven-length romp at 1 1/16 miles, earning a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure. That performance represented her third career start and second consecutive blowout victory. The progression in her speed figures tells a compelling story: she earned a 75 in her debut, improved to 78 second time out, then jumped to 92 in her Churchill victory. Her pace ratings showed similar improvement: 132, 138, then 153, demonstrating increasing ability to control races from the front.

The layoff presents the primary concern with Shred the Gnar, as trainer Brian Lynch brings her back after more than six months away from competition. However, the filly’s dominant style and pace-making ability could prove difficult to overcome if she returns in form. Her breeding suggests fitness, as Into Mischief runners often return successfully from breaks, and Bernardini on the dam side adds stamina and durability.

Shred the Gnar debuted at Gulfstream Park going six furlongs and narrowly missed by a neck, showing speed throughout before tiring late. In her second start, she romped by more than six lengths at one mile, again at Gulfstream, demonstrating clear improvement when stretched out. The Churchill allowance victory came at 1 1/16 miles, suggesting the cutback to one mile should pose no concerns.

Luis Saez returns for his fourth consecutive mount aboard Shred the Gnar, providing valuable continuity and tactical expertise. Saez excels at controlling fractions and measuring pace, making him the ideal pilot for a speed horse in a stakes race. The combination of Saez’s skill and Shred the Gnar’s natural speed creates significant front-running danger, particularly if she returns sharp from the layoff.

The absence of confirmed early speed in this field beyond Shred the Gnar works strongly in her favor. One Magic Philly shows tactical speed but may sit second rather than contest aggressively. Impel typically stalks rather than battles for the lead. This scenario could allow Shred the Gnar to establish comfortable early fractions without pressure, setting up her powerful late acceleration that produced her two dominant victories.

One Magic Philly

One Magic Philly enters the Chilukki Stakes as perhaps the most undervalued runner at 3-1 morning line odds, bringing improving form and an ideal tactical setup. The 4-year-old daughter of Good Magic has faced significantly tougher competition than most rivals in this field, including a sixth-place finish in the 2024 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint where she finished only two lengths behind winner Soul of an Angel.

Her transfer to Brendan Walsh’s barn in September proved immediately successful, as she won a 6.5-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Keeneland on October 10 by one length under patient handling. That victory came against Hillerito, with One Magic Philly paying $4.68 to win as the public choice. The Keeneland effort demonstrated her tactical versatility, as she tracked from second position before drawing clear in the stretch under Tyler Gaffalione.

Walsh’s operation has found tremendous success at Churchill Downs, and his decision to point One Magic Philly toward graded stakes competition speaks to her current form and fitness. The trainer’s patient approach and tactical acumen create an ideal match for a mare showing clear improvement in her second year of racing.

One Magic Philly’s speed figures show consistency at a high level, with her recent pace ratings of 158, 146, and 150 placing her competitive with this field. Her late-race fire numbers of 97, 94, and 99 indicate sustained speed throughout races, a critical factor at the one-mile distance. These figures compare favorably to Ragtime and should allow her to compete effectively with any runner in this field.

The one-mile distance appears ideal for One Magic Philly based on her past performance pattern. She possesses enough early speed to establish position while retaining late pace to sustain her run through the wire. Her Breeders Cup experience at seven furlongs showed she could handle elite competition at a sprint distance, while her recent Keeneland score demonstrated effectiveness when stretched slightly.

Post position 6 provides One Magic Philly with options in a seven-horse field. Gaffalione can allow her to break cleanly, establish position outside or just behind Shred the Gnar, and track the pace without getting shuffled back. The short run to the first turn at Churchill Downs should not create problems from post 6 with only seven runners.

The breeding profile of One Magic Philly suggests significant upside. Good Magic himself won the Breeders Cup Juvenile before developing into a champion, demonstrating classic ability to improve with age and experience. The sire has proven effective with fillies and mares running at middle distances on dirt, precisely the profile needed for the Chilukki.

Walsh’s hot hand at the current Churchill Downs meet adds confidence to One Magic Philly’s chances. The barn ranks third in the trainer standings and consistently delivers runners in peak form. The six weeks between her Keeneland victory and this engagement provides ideal spacing, suggesting Walsh has pointed specifically toward this spot.

Ragtime

Ragtime enters as the 8-5 morning line favorite based on consistent high-class form throughout 2025, though several factors suggest taking a stand against the Godolphin homebred. The 3-year-old daughter of Union Rags out of Burmilla has never finished worse than third in five career starts, compiling a record of three wins, one second, and one third.

Her victories include an impressive professional debut at Saratoga in June, followed by a romping maiden score at one mile on Gulfstream’s main track in March, and most recently a 2.25-length victory in the Grade 2 Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs on September 20. The Dogwood represented her first graded stakes triumph and came over this same one-mile Churchill Downs main track, establishing her credentials at the distance and surface.

However, Ragtime’s most recent effort in the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland on October 18 revealed potential vulnerabilities. She finished third, beaten just half a length, but the manner of defeat raises questions about her ability to handle this field. Ragtime fell far back early in the Raven Run, racing 10th in the small field before rallying late. While she demonstrated her closing kick, she needed significant pace assistance to generate that rally and never truly threatened the top two finishers.

Bill Mott’s patient training approach has developed Ragtime carefully, and the Hall of Fame conditioner clearly believes in her talent. However, several aspects of her profile suggest vulnerability at short odds in this spot. Her final time ratings have been steady but not exceptional: 129, 144, 135, 137, and 131 in her five starts. These figures show consistency but limited upward trajectory, suggesting she may be racing close to her current ceiling.

The pace scenario creates concerns for Ragtime’s chances. With only seven runners and Shred the Gnar likely to establish moderate early fractions without significant pressure, Ragtime may not receive the pace setup she requires to unleash her late kick. Her recent pattern shows she runs best when closing into contested fractions that produce tired leaders in the stretch. A controlled pace could neutralize her primary weapon.

The addition of blinkers represents an equipment change that could impact Ragtime’s running style and effectiveness. While blinkers sometimes help horses focus and quicken, they can also cause pace-pressing types to rush early or closing types to lose their composure. The first-time use of blinkers adds an element of uncertainty to her chances.

Post position 7 on the far outside presents tactical challenges in a seven-horse field. Junior Alvarado will need to make a decision immediately after the break: hustle Ragtime to establish better position, or drop back and hope for pace. Neither option appears ideal given her closing style and the likely moderate early tempo. The outside draw could force Alvarado into a wide trip, costing valuable ground in a one-turn mile.

Ragtime’s class and consistency demand respect, and she certainly holds winning credentials. Her Churchill Downs success in the Dogwood came over this same surface and distance, proving her effectiveness at the track. Mott’s training prowess and the Godolphin operation’s resources create confidence in her fitness and preparation. However, at odds of 8-5 or lower, Ragtime offers questionable value given the pace scenario and presence of improving rivals offering better prices.

Impel

Impel represents the most intriguing value proposition in the Chilukki Stakes at 9-2 morning line odds, bringing powerful connections and excellent recent form. The 4-year-old filly trains with Brad Cox, who leads the Churchill Downs trainer standings with nine wins and maintains a remarkable 30% strike rate with first-time starters in new barns.

Her recent workouts at Churchill Downs indicate serious preparation for this engagement. Reports suggest Impel has been training forwardly, with multiple observers noting she appears ready to fire a peak effort. Cox’s meticulous approach to training and placement suggests he views this spot as an optimal opportunity for Impel to return to winning form.

Florent Geroux returns to ride Impel, providing world-class tactical expertise and a proven partnership with the Cox barn. Geroux ranks among the elite riders in North America and excels at rating horses off the pace before unleashing their run at the optimal moment. The French rider’s patience and tactical acumen create an ideal match for Impel’s style.

The rail post position presents both advantages and challenges for Impel in this field. The inside draw guarantees a ground-saving trip if Geroux chooses to tuck in early, potentially saving several lengths compared to outside runners. However, the rail also requires clean racing luck and could trap Impel behind horses if the pace proves slow. With Geroux’s skill, the post should work in Impel’s favor, allowing her to save ground while maintaining striking position.

Impel’s past performances suggest she possesses the class to compete effectively at this level, though specific recent form details remain somewhat limited in available public information. However, Cox’s decision to enter her in a Grade 3 stakes rather than easier spots indicates confidence in her current condition and ability. The Hall of Fame trainer rarely enters horses in graded stakes without genuine winning chances.

The Cox barn’s dominance at the current Churchill Downs meet creates significant confidence in any runner from the stable. With a 9-6 lead over Steve Asmussen in the trainer standings and a 28.6% overall win rate at the track, Cox consistently delivers horses in peak form. His two-horse entry in the Chilukki with both Impel and Literate suggests he views the race as a prime opportunity.

Handicappers have identified Impel as a value play based on morning line odds and workout pattern, with several observers suggesting exacta and trifecta plays using Impel in combination with the chalk. The 9-2 morning line odds create an overlay situation if Impel can run to her best form, potentially offering exacta payoffs when combined with shorter-priced rivals.

Literate

Literate enters the Chilukki Stakes as part of Brad Cox’s two-horse entry with Impel, offering exotic wager depth at 10-1 morning line odds. The 5-year-old mare by Oscar Performance out of Infanta Branca brings experience and class, though she faces a challenging task against younger, potentially faster rivals.

Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount on Literate, providing elite-level riding from the nation’s leading jockey. Ortiz’s presence alone often shortens odds and improves a horse’s chances through superior tactical decisions and timing. His ability to find racing room and deliver horses at the optimal moment makes any mount dangerous, particularly in smaller fields where traffic concerns diminish.

Cox’s decision to enter two horses in the Chilukki creates interesting exotic wagering scenarios. While Literate projects as the lesser of the two Cox runners based on morning line odds, her chances cannot be dismissed entirely given the trainer’s form and Ortiz’s skill. The veteran mare could outrun her odds if the race sets up favorably for her closing style.

The Oscar Performance breeding suggests turf ability, though Literate has shown competence on dirt surfaces throughout her career. At age five, she brings experience and tactical knowledge that younger rivals may lack, though this can cut both ways as older mares sometimes lose their competitive edge when facing improving 3-year-olds.

Post position 3 places Literate in mid-pack position, offering flexibility for Ortiz to rate her appropriately based on early pace development. The post eliminates concerns about getting trapped inside or racing too wide, allowing Ortiz to position Literate for her best closing run.

Literate’s role in exotic wagers becomes significant given her connection to Impel through the Cox entry. Bettors using Impel on top of exactas and trifectas should consider including Literate underneath at longer odds, as the Cox pair provides coverage of multiple running styles and tactical approaches.

Zadorsky

Zadorsky enters at 15-1 morning line odds as a two-time winner at Churchill Downs, bringing local course knowledge and proven effectiveness over the track. The 4-year-old filly trained by Whitworth Beckman demonstrates consistency without possessing the class level to seriously threaten the top contenders in this field.

Her two Churchill Downs victories establish she handles the surface and configuration, an advantage not shared by all rivals. Local success often translates to improved performance when horses return to familiar surroundings, as they understand the track quirks and racing characteristics.

Joe Ramos takes the riding assignment on Zadorsky, bringing solid journeyman skills without the elite profile of riders aboard the top contenders. Ramos handles his assignments professionally, though he lacks the tactical brilliance and split-second timing that separates top riders from the rest.

Zadorsky’s most recent effort saw her beaten nearly eight lengths, a significant performance gap compared to winner One Magic Philly, who appears again in this field. That result suggests Zadorsky will need dramatic improvement or significant pace assistance to factor in the Chilukki finish.

The 15-1 morning line odds accurately reflect Zadorsky’s chances based on class and form. She represents a deep longshot for exotic wagering purposes, potentially offering value in wide trifectas and superfectas if the race develops chaotically. However, her chances of winning or placing in the top three appear remote against this quality field.

Runaway Diva

Runaway Diva closes out the Chilukki field at 20-1 morning line odds, making her Churchill Downs debut after racing exclusively elsewhere. The 4-year-old daughter of Runhappy out of Thee Pie Girl brings distance versatility, showing a record of two wins, a second, and a third in four starts at one mile.

Jose Ortiz takes the mount, providing significant rider upgrade and professional tactical handling. Ortiz’s presence aboard a 20-1 longshot sometimes indicates hidden form or connections expecting improvement, as quality jockeys rarely waste time on hopeless causes. However, it could also simply reflect Ortiz’s willingness to take all available mounts during the busy racing day.

Runaway Diva’s record of three wins from 15 career starts with five runner-up finishes demonstrates she possesses ability to compete at some level. However, the significant gap between her previous competition and Grade 3 stakes company suggests she faces a monumental class challenge in the Chilukki.

Her lack of Churchill Downs experience creates additional uncertainty, as first-time visitors to the Louisville track sometimes struggle to adapt to the surface and configuration. The unfamiliarity factor works against longshots who already face steep class challenges.

Michelle Hemingway trains Runaway Diva, bringing solid credentials without the dominant profile of rivals from the Cox, Mott, and Walsh stables. The training operation handles horses competently, though it lacks the resources and depth of the powerhouse barns represented in this field.

Runaway Diva serves primarily as a deep exotic play in superfectas and pentafectas, offering odds value if the race falls apart or she significantly outperforms expectations. Her chances of winning or placing in the top three appear virtually nonexistent against this quality field at this class level.

Speed Figures and Class Analysis

Speed figure analysis reveals a tight competitive field with several horses capable of earning career-best numbers. Shred the Gnar’s 94 Beyer Speed Figure from her last start ranks as the highest recent number in the field, though the six-month layoff creates questions about her current form. Her progressive final time ratings of 75, 78, and 92 demonstrate clear improvement, while her pace ratings climbed from 132 to 138 to 153, showing increasing ability to control races.

Ragtime’s final time ratings have shown consistency in the 129-144 range, demonstrating reliable performance without exceptional upside. Her steady numbers suggest she races close to her current ability level, making dramatic improvement unlikely. One Magic Philly’s pace ratings of 158, 146, and 150 place her competitive with any runner in the field, while her fire numbers of 97, 94, and 99 indicate sustained speed throughout races.

The class comparison favors horses with graded stakes experience and success. Ragtime brings a Grade 2 victory in the Dogwood at this track, establishing clear credentials. One Magic Philly faced elite competition in the 2024 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, finishing only two lengths behind winner Soul of an Angel, demonstrating her ability to compete at the highest levels.

Shred the Gnar earned “Rising Star” designation from the Thoroughbred Daily News following her dominant Churchill Downs allowance victory, indicating industry observers view her as a potential top-class performer. The seven-length margin and 94 Beyer suggest significant upside if she returns in form from the layoff.

Impel’s speed figures remain somewhat unclear from available information, though her serious consideration by Cox for a Grade 3 spot indicates she possesses competitive numbers for this level. The trainer’s 30% strike rate with properly placed horses suggests he views Impel as legitimate Grade 3 caliber.

The Grade 3 class level of the Chilukki represents a competitive but attainable goal for fillies and mares with solid allowance form and developing talent. The $300,000 purse attracts quality runners without demanding absolute elite credentials, creating opportunities for improving horses to step up successfully.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Churchill Downs’ one-mile dirt configuration begins near the gap and features a relatively short run to the first turn, creating tactical pressure for horses drawn outside or those requiring time to establish position. The lone-turn mile traditionally favors tactical speed, as horses positioning near the front avoid the ground loss and traffic concerns that plague deep closers.

The current Fall Meet through two weeks has shown relatively fair racing without extreme bias toward speed or closers. However, posts 4-6 and stalkers have controlled the winner’s circle in dirt sprints, winning approximately 49% of races. This suggests tactical speed positioned in mid-pack offers optimal winning percentages.

Post position 5 at Churchill Downs has historically produced 22% of winners in dirt sprints and 17% in routes, representing exceptional performance. Inside posts perform better in route races over one mile, with approximately 15% of winners emerging from rail positions. Posts 3 and 4 combine to produce nearly 30% of route winners on dirt.

The seven-horse field in the Chilukki creates a relatively clean racing scenario with limited traffic concerns. Horses drawn inside should save ground while maintaining position, while outside runners face minimal disadvantage given the small field size. The short run to the first turn means jockeys must commit quickly to their tactical approach, potentially disadvantaging horses needing time to settle.

Shred the Gnar’s post 2 position provides tactical advantages for a speed horse, allowing her to establish position quickly without excessive ground loss or traffic concerns. One Magic Philly’s post 6 offers flexibility, enabling Gaffalione to break cleanly and establish stalking position without getting trapped inside or racing too wide.

Ragtime’s outside post 7 presents challenges for a closer, potentially forcing her into a wide trip or requiring Alvarado to drop her back farther than ideal to save ground. Impel’s rail position offers ground-saving advantages if Geroux can navigate cleanly, though it risks getting trapped behind slower pace if the tempo proves moderate.

The track record for one mile at Churchill Downs stands at 1:33.26, set by Fruit Ludt on November 21, 2014. This aggressive standard indicates the track can produce fast times when conditions align, though typical Grade 3 one-mile races finish in the 1:35-1:37 range depending on pace and surface conditions.

Current track conditions are forecast to remain fast throughout the day, with partly sunny skies and temperatures near 71°F. No precipitation is expected during racing hours, ensuring consistent surface conditions for all runners. The fast track should favor horses with tactical speed rather than extreme early or late runners.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The Chilukki Stakes offers excellent wagering opportunities through its combination of competitive field quality, reasonable odds spread, and value plays at multiple price points. The compact seven-horse field eliminates extreme longshots while providing sufficient depth for exotic wagering value.

Win betting strategy should focus on One Magic Philly at 3-1 morning line odds, representing the optimal combination of winning probability and price value. Her tactical versatility, improving form, and connections clicking at high percentages create confidence in her ability to win at a fair price. Shred the Gnar merits win consideration if her odds drift to 4-1 or higher, though the layoff concern makes her risky at shorter prices.

Exacta wagering becomes attractive using One Magic Philly over Shred the Gnar and Impel, creating two live combinations at value prices. The reverse exacta boxing One Magic Philly with Shred the Gnar provides coverage of the two most likely pace scenarios: Shred the Gnar controlling throughout, or One Magic Philly tracking and passing in the stretch.

Trifecta strategy should key One Magic Philly on top over Shred the Gnar, Impel, and Ragtime, with all four horses used in third position. This structure creates 6 combinations at reasonable cost while maximizing coverage of the most likely finishing scenarios. A more aggressive trifecta keys One Magic Philly and Shred the Gnar in the first two positions over Impel, Ragtime, Literate, and Zadorsky in third, creating a 12-combination ticket with strong value potential.

Superfecta wagering offers significant return potential given the competitive field and value prices on several contenders. Key One Magic Philly on top, use Shred the Gnar and Impel in second, then spread across Ragtime, Literate, Zadorsky, and Runaway Diva in third and fourth positions. This structure provides comprehensive coverage while focusing investment on the most probable top finishers.

Daily double plays connecting the Chilukki to the following race create opportunities to leverage value. If One Magic Philly wins at 3-1 or higher, the daily double return multiplies significantly when combined with logical contenders in race 4. Consider playing the double even without betting the Chilukki win position, as the exotic structure often produces better payoffs than straight win bets.

Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences involving the Chilukki benefit from spreading in this race while singling stronger opinions in surrounding races. Use three or four horses in the Chilukki position while keying standouts in adjacent races to maximize return potential without excessive investment.

Place and show wagering on One Magic Philly offers reduced risk with reasonable return potential at 3-1 win odds. The Place position should return approximately 2-1, while Show pays roughly 3-2, creating opportunities for conservative bettors seeking positive returns with higher probability.

Multi-race exotic strategies should incorporate the Chilukki as a spreading race within larger sequences. The Grade 3 status and competitive field create uncertainty compared to maiden or lower-level claiming races, making it ideal for using multiple horses while singling more predictable races in the sequence.

Value plays exist throughout the Chilukki wagering menu. Impel at 9-2 represents overlay potential if morning line odds hold, particularly in exactas and trifectas underneath shorter-priced favorites. Shred the Gnar offers win bet value if her price drifts above 5-2, as the layoff concern may cause public hesitation despite her dominant form.

The most dangerous betting trap involves taking Ragtime at 8-5 or lower odds. While she possesses clear credentials and quality, the combination of pace scenario, post position, and value alternatives at better prices makes the favorite vulnerable to upset. Respected handicappers have identified this race as an opportunity to look past the chalk toward better-priced alternatives.

Selections and Confidence Levels

Win: One Magic Philly represents the optimal combination of class, form, tactical setup, and value pricing in the Chilukki Stakes. The 4-year-old Good Magic filly has faced significantly tougher competition than most rivals, including her sixth-place finish in the 2024 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint where she finished only two lengths behind champion Soul of an Angel. Her immediate success upon transfer to Brendan Walsh’s barn demonstrates she is thriving in new surroundings, and the trainer’s hot hand at Churchill Downs creates confidence in her current form.

The one-mile distance sets up perfectly for One Magic Philly’s tactical versatility, allowing her to establish position behind likely pacesetter Shred the Gnar before launching her run in the stretch. Tyler Gaffalione’s skill rating horses off the pace matches ideally with her running style, and post position 6 provides clean racing room without concern for getting trapped inside or racing too wide. Her pace ratings of 158, 146, and 150 demonstrate sustained speed throughout races, while fire numbers of 97, 94, and 99 indicate she maintains velocity through the wire.

Walsh’s patience in developing One Magic Philly and pointing her toward graded stakes rather than easier spots speaks to his confidence in her current ability. The trainer ranks third at the Churchill Downs Fall Meet and consistently delivers horses in peak form. The combination of improving form, ideal tactical setup, quality connections operating at peak efficiency, and fair 3-1 odds creates the strongest winning probability in the field.

Place: Shred the Gnar brings the most explosive talent in the field based on her two dominant victories earlier in 2025, including a seven-length romp at Churchill Downs that produced a career-best 94 Beyer Speed Figure. The $610,000 Into Mischief filly demonstrated clear improvement through her first three starts, with final time ratings climbing from 75 to 78 to 92, while pace ratings jumped from 132 to 138 to 153.

The six-month layoff creates the primary concern with Shred the Gnar, though her natural talent and pace-making ability could prove difficult to overcome if trainer Brian Lynch has her sharp and ready. Luis Saez returns for his fourth consecutive mount aboard Shred the Gnar, providing tactical continuity and expert pace management. The absence of confirmed early speed pressure allows Shred the Gnar to establish comfortable fractions without exhausting herself in a speed duel.

Her “Rising Star” designation from industry observers following her Churchill allowance victory indicates she possesses potential to develop into a top-class performer. The breeding profile supports success, as Into Mischief runners often return effectively from breaks while Bernardini on the dam side adds stamina and durability. Post position 2 offers tactical advantages, allowing Saez to establish position quickly without excessive ground loss.

If Shred the Gnar returns in form approaching her May performance, she represents the horse to beat regardless of who wins. Her combination of natural speed, improving talent, and explosive finishing kick creates confidence she will hit the board while offering value at 5-2 odds for place and show wagering.

Show: Impel completes the show selection at 9-2 morning line odds, representing the strongest value play among Brad Cox’s two-horse entry. The 4-year-old filly has been training forwardly at Churchill Downs with multiple observers noting strong workout patterns indicating peak readiness. Cox leads the Churchill Downs Fall Meet trainer standings and maintains a remarkable 30% strike rate with properly placed horses.

Franz Josef at reasonable odds could provide value if working out a clean trip in the large field. Kalik scratched due to veterinary issues but would have offered value.

Selections

Win: Goes the Clown
Place: Risk Manager
Show: Mister Abarrio

Jockey Notes and Insights

Jose Ortiz leads the Churchill Downs Fall Meet jockey standings with 14 wins through the first two weeks, showcasing exceptional form across all distances and surfaces. Ortiz has multiple live mounts throughout the card including Happy Prince, Nerazurri, Next Girl, My Noble Knight, Gilded Craken, and Mister Abarrio.

Tyler Gaffalione sits in second place with 11 wins and rides several key contenders including Quarry, Miss Ellary, One Magic Philly, Goats On a Tree, Money Run, Onmywaytosavthday, Takeschargesmiling, and Point Dume. Gaffalione’s versatility with both speed and closing types makes him dangerous throughout the card.

Irad Ortiz Jr. holds third position with 10 victories and brings quality over quantity with mounts like Valley of Kings, Literate, Concrete Glory, Ashima, Freedom Road, Jubilant Joanie, Speed Figures, Nation, Navajo Warrior, and Goes the Clown. The elite rider’s presence often shortens odds but consistently delivers results.

Luis Saez rides multiple contenders including Shred the Gnar, Swaggish, Windy Walk, Curlin’s Malibu, Sosua Summer, Gilmore, Bernin Hot, and Echo Lane. Florent Geroux brings European finesse with Faire Plaisir and Impel in key races. Corey Lanerie adds local knowledge with Project Ace and Time for Trouble.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brad Cox dominates the Churchill Downs trainer standings with a 9-6 lead over Steve Asmussen, maintaining his impressive 28.6% win rate at the track. Cox saddles Impel and Literate in the Chilukki Stakes and brings consistent quality across multiple races. His 57.6% win-place-show percentage leads all trainers with significant starts.

Joe Sharp sits in excellent form with a 23.1% win rate and 51.5% in-the-money percentage at Churchill Downs. Sharp trains multiple contenders including Swaggish, Our Liberty Belle, Curlin’s Malibu, Alternate Reality, Mercy Warren, Gilmore, and Gilded Craken. The barn’s recent hot streak makes any Sharp runner worth consideration.

Steve Asmussen maintains his usual volume approach with 60 starts during the September meet, winning at 15.1% with a 43% ITM rate. Asmussen’s depth provides value plays throughout the card with Story Hour, Beau Soleil, and Bad Beat Brian among his entries.

Michael Maker excels on Churchill’s turf courses with a 14.9% win rate and 46.9% ITM percentage. Maker trains Shape Note, Goats On a Tree, Goes the Clown, and Risk Manager in turf races. Mark Casse brings Happy Prince, Nerazurri, and American Outlaw with strong breeding and patient development.

Brendan Walsh trains One Magic Philly in the Chilukki Stakes with a solid 23.3% ITM rate at Churchill Downs. Saffie Joseph Jr. brings Concrete Glory, Navajo Warrior, and Mister Abarrio with proven class. William Mott saddles Chilukki favorite Ragtime with typical patience and quality.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Claiming Crown format creates unique wagering opportunities with competitive fields throughout the card. The Pick 4 covering races 3-6 offers excellent value with the Chilukki Stakes anchoring the sequence. Key One Magic Philly in the Chilukki at value odds of 3-1 over the short-priced Ragtime.

The late Pick 5 from races 7-11 provides a massive pool with challenging large fields in races 8, 9, and 11 creating potential for significant payoffs. Spread in the turf sprints and use singles in races 7 and 10 where smaller fields provide more predictability.

Horizontal wagers work well with the large fields in races 5, 6, 8, 9, and 11. Box multiple Joe Sharp and Brad Cox runners in exactas and trifectas as both barns are hitting at high percentages. Sharp trains seven horses on the card while Cox brings quality spots.

Single-race strategies should focus on early speed in dirt sprints given the track bias favoring posts 4-6 and stalkers. In turf routes, lean toward closers with clean trips as the large fields create pace scenarios. Target horses stretching out in distance as the route-heavy card favors stamina.

Value plays include Frosty View in race 8 with handicappers touting the horse as a key play. Happy Strike brings a winning streak from Prairie Meadows and represents value in race 10. Impel in the Chilukki offers strong value at 9-2 with Brad Cox training and excellent recent workouts.

The weather forecast suggesting possible evening showers makes early races more attractive for Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers starting with races 1-4. The 3-4-5-6 Pick 4 anchors on the Chilukki Stakes and provides manageable field sizes in races 4 and 5 compared to later sequences.