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Churchill Downs presents a competitive 10-race card on Thursday, November 13, 2025, with first post at 1:00 PM EST. The fall meet continues to showcase high-quality racing with a diverse mix of claiming races, maiden events, and allowance contests. Through the first two weeks of the meet, the jockey and trainer colonies have established clear patterns, with Brad Cox and the Ortiz brothers dominating the standings. The card features races at distances ranging from 5 furlongs on turf to 1 1/16 miles on both dirt and grass, providing varied betting opportunities throughout the afternoon and evening program.
The scratch watch indicates several potential changes, with notable entries like Just Like Max, Wizard of Yester, and Oaks Street facing possible withdrawals for various reasons including veterinary concerns and gate issues. Handicappers should monitor late scratches closely, particularly in the maiden claiming events where field size can significantly impact pace dynamics.
Weather and Track Conditions
The Churchill Downs main dirt track is expected to be Fast, while the Matt Winn Turf Course will be rated Firm with the rail positioned at 24 feet from the inside hedge. Weather forecasts indicate sunny conditions with temperatures around 75 degrees, creating ideal racing conditions for both surfaces. The wider rail placement on the turf should provide fair ground across multiple paths and minimize any significant inside or outside bias.
Track maintenance crews have sealed the racing surfaces properly, ensuring consistent conditions throughout the racing program. The fall meet has been characterized by excellent track conditions, allowing horses to perform to their optimal capabilities across all distances and surfaces.
Race 1 – Starter Allowance
Post Time: 1:00 PM
6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $83,000, Two-Year-Old Colts and Geldings, Weight 120-122 lbs
Pace Analysis
This starter allowance for two-year-olds should develop into a contested pace scenario with multiple speed types entered. The six-furlong distance at Churchill Downs typically favors horses positioned within three lengths of the early lead, and this race appears to set up with at least three horses capable of vying for the front end through the opening quarter-mile.
No Bees from the Joseph barn should command early respect given Irad Ortiz Jr.’s aggressive riding style. Kid Twist and Fulmine both possess early speed that could challenge for the lead, creating fractional pressure that may set up a closing kick scenario. The projected opening quarter should click off in approximately 22 and change with a half-mile split near 45 seconds flat.
Key Contenders
No Bees represents the powerful Saffie Joseph Jr. stable and draws the services of leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who has been dominant at the fall meet with 10 wins through the first two weeks. This colt has tactical speed and the pedigree to handle winners for the first time against this quality. The combination of top connections and favorable post position five makes this runner the horse to beat. Ortiz Jr. has shown exceptional judgment in directing horses through Churchill’s one-turn sprint configuration.
Fulmine ships in for J. Kent Sweezey with Luis Saez in the saddle, another potent jockey-trainer combination. Saez has been surgical in his placement during the meet and excels at conserving his mounts early before unleashing a powerful stretch rally. This colt should benefit from any pace meltdown up front and has the tactical speed to sit a perfect stalking trip.
Secondary Choices
Kid Twist gives John Ennis a second entry in this spot alongside Dr Fenn. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount, and the combination merits consideration given Gaffalione’s 11 wins at the meet ranking him second in the standings. This one has shown enough speed to stay in contact and could benefit if the pace gets overly ambitious. The Ennis stable has been competitive throughout the fall session.
Dr Fenn represents the same Ennis barn with Danny Sheehy riding. While drawing post one can be advantageous at Churchill Downs in sprints, where inside posts win 44% of the time, the inexperience factor and weight concession make this one a secondary consideration behind the more prominent stable entries.
Betting Strategy
The race sets up for an exacta featuring No Bees on top with Fulmine and Kid Twist filling out the bottom portions. A straight win bet on No Bees carries value given the projected speed duel that should set up perfectly for the Ortiz-Joseph combination. For players seeking higher returns, a trifecta box using the top three selections provides solid coverage, with Swung as a potential saver given Matt Williams’ training ability with young horses.
Selections
Win: No Bees
Place: Fulmine
Show: Kid Twist
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 1:29 PM
1 1/16 Miles Dirt, Purse $67,000, Three-Year-Olds and Up, Claiming Price $50,000
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming route should unfold with a moderate early tempo, as most entrants lack the natural speed to establish demanding early fractions. The 1 1/16-mile distance provides ample opportunity for stalkers and late runners to make their moves, particularly given the projected splits that should click off in relaxed fashion through the opening half-mile. Churchill Downs route races have shown that horses within three lengths of the lead maintain distinct advantages, but the pace should be honest rather than contentious.
Harbor Prince and Pacific Standard both possess sufficient speed to secure forward positions, but neither figures to establish fractions quick enough to compromise their chances in the stretch drive. The projected quarter-mile split should reach 24 and change, with a half-mile time hovering near 48 seconds.
Key Contenders
Global Quote represents the powerhouse Brad Cox stable and draws the meet’s leading rider Irad Ortiz Jr. Cox has been dominant at the fall meet with nine wins through two weeks, while Ortiz Jr. provides the finishing touch with his patient riding style and impeccable timing. This gelding makes his second start and should benefit significantly from the debut education. Cox’s training pattern with lightly raced horses at Churchill Downs has been profitable, and the barn’s 30% strike rate with maidens demands respect.
Sound Cause comes from the Dale Romans barn with Corey Lanerie handling the riding assignment. Romans has been a fixture at Churchill Downs for decades and knows how to place his horses to win. This colt gets the rail-to-rail equipment on for the first time, suggesting connections believe the added focus will produce improved results. Lanerie’s presence indicates stable confidence, as the veteran rider typically gravitates toward live horses in his barn assignments.
Secondary Choices
Wizard of Yester appears on the scratch watch due to gate issues from an October 23 Keeneland appearance. If cleared to run, Tyler Gaffalione’s presence for Joe Sharp adds credibility to this gelding’s chances. Sharp has been steady throughout the meet, and Gaffalione rarely wastes time on horses without genuine ability. The claiming price of $50,000 fits this one’s recent form cycle.
Ando also faces potential scratching after a November 2 Churchill Downs appearance. If declared to run, Mario Gutierrez brings West Coast style to this assignment. The trainer switch to Fausto Gutierrez could provide the difference, as new connections sometimes unlock hidden ability in lightly raced horses.
Betting Strategy
A substantial win bet on Global Quote represents the soundest approach, with the Cox-Ortiz combination offering value despite potential favorite status. For exotic players, boxing Global Quote and Sound Cause in the exacta provides solid coverage while maintaining modest cost. A trifecta wheel using Global Quote on top with Sound Cause, Wizard of Yester, and Vino Dominus offers expanded coverage should the favorite dominate.
Selections
Win: Global Quote
Place: Sound Cause
Show: Wizard of Yester
Race 3 – Claiming
Post Time: 1:58 PM
1 Mile Dirt, Purse $78,000, Three-Year-Old Fillies, Claiming Price $40,000
Pace Analysis
The one-mile distance for three-year-old fillies should produce moderate early fractions with several fillies capable of contesting the early lead. Princess Ny and Spying both possess enough natural speed to secure forward positions through the opening half-mile, while Surprise and Rando should settle into stalking positions. The projected pace scenario favors fillies positioned within two to three lengths of the early lead entering the far turn.
The opening quarter-mile should reach approximately 23 and change, with the half-mile split clocking near 47 flat. These fractions provide sufficient tempo to set up closers while not being so demanding that early speed compromises itself. Churchill Downs’ one-mile configuration typically favors horses with tactical speed who can sit a tracking trip before accelerating into the stretch.
Pace Analysis
The pace should feature Princess Ny and Spying establishing the early tempo, with the Brad Cox-trained Surprise settling into perfect stalking position under Irad Ortiz Jr. The race should unfold with moderate fractions that allow the quality fillies to make their moves entering the stretch.
Key Contenders
Surprise towers over this field as the Brad Cox-trained filly draws Irad Ortiz Jr. for this claiming assignment. Cox’s dominance at the fall meet combined with Ortiz Jr.’s exceptional riding creates a formidable combination that has produced consistent results throughout the session. This filly drops significantly in class after facing tougher competition, and the $40,000 claiming level appears tailor-made for a dominant performance. Cox’s pattern with fillies dropping in for a tag has been highly profitable at Churchill Downs.
Spying represents another powerful stable in Brendan Walsh’s barn with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Walsh ranks third in the trainer standings with five wins, while Gaffalione sits second among jockeys with 11 victories. This filly has shown consistent form at the claiming level and should be forwardly placed throughout. The Walsh barn excels with fillies at Churchill Downs, and Gaffalione’s tactical abilities make this combination dangerous in any claiming spot.
Secondary Choices
Princess Ny brings Luis Saez aboard for Christopher Davis, creating an intriguing combination given Saez’s hot hand at the meet. This filly has tactical speed to stay in contact early and could benefit if the pace develops into a speed duel. Saez’s patient style meshes well with fillies who possess natural speed but don’t need to establish the lead.
Rando represents the Steve Asmussen stable, which has collected six wins at the meet ranking second in the trainer standings. While on the scratch watch due to a previous trainer issue, if declared to run with Keith Asmussen riding, this filly merits consideration. The Asmussen barn’s consistency at Churchill Downs makes any entry from the stable worth serious handicapping attention.
Betting Strategy
Surprise deserves strong win consideration despite potential short odds, as the Cox-Ortiz combination represents the class of this field. For players seeking value, a two-horse exacta box using Surprise and Spying provides solid coverage of the two most prominent stables. A trifecta wheel with Surprise on top over Spying, Princess Ny, and Theprincessfactor offers expanded coverage at reasonable cost.
Selections
Win: Surprise
Place: Spying
Show: Princess Ny
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 2:27 PM
6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $57,000, Two-Year-Old Fillies, Claiming Price $30,000
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies presents a wide-open pace scenario with 11 potential starters. Multiple fillies possess enough speed to contest the early lead, creating potential for fractional pressure through the opening quarter-mile. Two-year-old maiden claiming events at six furlongs typically develop into contested affairs where horses positioned within two lengths of the lead maintain significant advantages.
The projected opening quarter should reach 22 and change, with the half-mile split near 46 seconds. These fractions indicate a brisk but manageable tempo that could set up a late-running closer if the early pace becomes overly ambitious. Churchill Downs’ sprint configuration favors speed, but quality closers can overcome pace meltdowns.
Key Contenders
Pippa’s Noncents represents Brendan Walsh’s stable with Luis Saez handling the riding duties. Walsh has been highly effective with juvenile fillies at Churchill Downs, and Saez’s presence indicates serious stable intent. This filly debuts against winners but comes from a barn that typically has first-time starters razor sharp. The Walsh training pattern with debut runners at the meet has shown consistent profitability, and Saez rarely accepts assignments on horses without genuine ability.
Oaks Street ships from the Joe Sharp barn with Irad Ortiz Jr. confirmed in the saddle, though the filly appears on the scratch watch due to stewards’ action from a November 2 race at Churchill Downs. If cleared to compete, the Ortiz-Sharp combination demands respect despite the claiming level. Sharp has been steady at the meet, and Ortiz Jr.’s presence on a claiming filly suggests hidden class or significant improvement from the debut.
Secondary Choices
Tizzlin comes from S. Jade Cunningham’s barn with Florent Geroux aboard, creating an interesting combination despite multiple scratch watch entries. If declared, Geroux’s riding prowess makes any mount dangerous, particularly in maiden claiming events where class separation can be minimal. The filly has been pointed toward this spot multiple times, suggesting connections believe she is ready to fire a winning effort.
Queen of Queens represents D. Whitworth Beckman’s stable with Tyler Gaffalione handling the assignment. Gaffalione’s 11 wins at the meet make him a rider to follow, and his presence on a maiden claiming filly indicates stable confidence. Beckman has been competitive throughout the fall session, and this filly shows enough early speed to stay in contact.
Longshots
Pushing Through appears as an also-eligible from a November 1 Churchill Downs maiden claiming event with Jose Ortiz aboard. If drawn into the race, the Ortiz brothers’ dominance at the meet makes this filly worth monitoring at potential value odds. Thomas Amoss trains and knows how to spot his horses properly.
Betting Strategy
The large field and maiden claiming conditions create opportunities for value plays. A win bet on Pippa’s Noncents offers the soundest approach, with the Walsh-Saez combination representing class in this spot. For exotic coverage, a trifecta box using Pippa’s Noncents, Oaks Street, Queen of Queens, and Tizzlin provides four legitimate contenders at manageable cost. A Pick 4 beginning with this race offers expanded betting opportunities given the competitive nature of subsequent races.
Selections
Win: Pippa’s Noncents
Place: Oaks Street
Show: Queen of Queens
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 2:57 PM
6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $48,000, Three-Year-Olds and Up Fillies and Mares, Claiming Price $20,000
Pace Analysis
This bottom-level maiden claiming sprint presents a wide-open affair with 14 potential starters creating a massive field that complicates handicapping. The pace should develop with moderate speed as most entrants lack the natural ability to establish demanding fractions. Multiple fillies will contest for the early lead, but none possesses overwhelming speed to dominate through the opening quarter-mile.
The projected splits should reach 23 flat through the quarter with a half-mile time near 47 seconds. These relaxed fractions indicate that fillies positioned within striking distance entering the stretch will have opportunities to make their moves. The massive field size creates significant traffic concerns, making post position and jockey skill critical factors.
Key Contenders
Volatile Nite represents Steve Asmussen’s powerful stable with Keith Asmussen handling the riding assignment. The Asmussen barn has collected six wins at the meet, ranking second in the trainer standings behind only Brad Cox. Steve Asmussen’s consistency with maiden claiming fillies at Churchill Downs has been well-documented, and this filly should benefit from the patient training approach typical of the barn. The $20,000 claiming level represents bottom rung, but the Asmussen name carries weight in any condition.
She’s Takin Charge brings veteran Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard for Arthur Coontz. Hernandez has been a fixture at Churchill Downs for years and knows the track better than most riders. His presence on a four-year-old maiden claiming filly suggests stable confidence that this one is ready to graduate. The age factor indicates some issues, but experience in larger fields can prove advantageous when navigating traffic.
Secondary Choices
Hard to Get draws Declan Cannon for Gregory Foley, creating an interesting combination given the four-year-old mare’s experience. Foley has been competitive at the meet, and Cannon shows developing skills as a young rider. The mare’s maturity could prove beneficial in a large field where patience and positioning matter significantly.
Real Nice Surprise represents W. Bret Calhoun with Axel Concepcion riding. Concepcion has been highly effective at the meet with nine wins through two weeks, ranking third in the standings. His hot hand makes any mount worth consideration, particularly in maiden claiming events where small class edges can determine outcomes.
Longshots
Nan O’Hara appears on the scratch watch due to veterinarian concerns from a September 30 Belterra Park race. If cleared to compete, Ferrin Peterson’s riding could produce a surprise result at generous odds. The filly’s previous issues create uncertainty but also potential value if connections believe she has turned the corner.
Betting Strategy
The massive field size creates opportunities for significant payouts in the exacta and trifecta pools. A win bet on Volatile Nite represents the soundest approach given the Asmussen barn’s consistency. For exotic players, a trifecta box using Volatile Nite, She’s Takin Charge, Hard to Get, and Real Nice Surprise provides four horses with legitimate winning chances. Consider using this race as a spread leg in multi-race wagers where covering multiple horses makes sense given the field size and competitive nature.
Selections
Win: Volatile Nite
Place: She’s Takin Charge
Show: Hard to Get
Race 6 – Claiming
Post Time: 3:26 PM
1 1/16 Miles Turf, Purse $83,000, Three-Year-Olds and Up, Claiming Price $80,000
Pace Analysis
This turf route at 1 1/16 miles with the rail positioned at 24 feet should produce a moderate early tempo with several horses possessing tactical speed to secure stalking positions. The turf course has been playing fairly at the fall meet with the wider rail placement minimizing any significant inside or outside bias. Horses can win from multiple running styles, but those positioned within three lengths of the lead entering the stretch maintain advantages.
The projected splits should click off at a civilized pace through the opening half-mile, allowing closers opportunities to make their moves while not being so slow that early speed dominates. Governing Party and Mission Improbable should establish forward positions, with the race likely developing into a stretch duel between the prominent runners and quality closers.
Key Contenders
Big to Do represents Glenn Wismer’s stable with Irad Ortiz Jr. confirmed in the saddle. Ortiz Jr.’s dominance at the fall meet makes him a rider to follow regardless of surface or distance. This gelding drops into the $80,000 claiming ranks after facing tougher competition, and the class relief combined with Ortiz Jr.’s tactical brilliance creates a formidable combination. The four-year-old has shown ability on both dirt and turf, and the surface switch could unlock improved performance.
Factor Analysis ships from Eddie Kenneally’s barn with Luis Saez handling the riding duties. Saez has been razor sharp at the meet and excels on the turf course with his patient riding style. This four-year-old colt possesses the tactical speed to sit a perfect stalking trip before unleashing a powerful stretch kick. Kenneally’s placement in this spot suggests confidence, and Saez rarely wastes efforts on horses without legitimate winning chances.
Secondary Choices
Governing Party represents Mike Maker’s barn with Tyler Gaffalione aboard, creating another powerful jockey-trainer combination. Maker has been consistently competitive at Churchill Downs throughout his career, and Gaffalione’s 11 wins at the meet make him one of the hottest riders. This three-year-old colt gets a two-pound weight concession and could prove difficult to catch if allowed to establish an uncontested lead.
Not Falling Back comes from Chris Block’s barn with Florent Geroux riding. Geroux brings extensive turf experience from his time in France and has shown exceptional judgment when directing horses on grass courses. This gelding should be forwardly placed and could benefit from any pace meltdown among the leaders.
Longshots
Aspenite represents Steve Asmussen’s stable with Keith Asmussen riding, creating value potential given the trainer’s six wins at the meet. The four-year-old colt faces a class test at the $80,000 level but comes from a barn capable of winning at any level. Consider as a saver in trifecta and superfecta wagers.
Betting Strategy
A win bet on Big to Do offers the soundest approach given Ortiz Jr.’s hot hand and the gelding’s class edge. For exotic players, a two-horse exacta box using Big to Do and Factor Analysis provides solid coverage of the two most prominent connections. A trifecta wheel with Big to Do on top over Factor Analysis, Governing Party, and Not Falling Back expands coverage while maintaining manageable cost. Consider using this race as a single in Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers.
Selections
Win: Big to Do
Place: Factor Analysis
Show: Governing Party
Race 7 – Claiming
Post Time: 3:55 PM
6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $63,000, Three-Year-Olds and Up Fillies and Mares, Claiming Price $30,000
Pace Analysis
This claiming sprint for fillies and mares at 6 1/2 furlongs should develop with moderate early speed as several entrants possess enough tactical ability to contest for forward positions. The distance falls between a pure sprint and a one-turn mile, requiring horses to maintain speed while also conserving enough energy for the stretch drive. Churchill Downs’ speed-favoring bias during the fall meet makes horses positioned within two lengths of the lead particularly dangerous.
The projected opening quarter should reach 22 and change with a half-mile split near 46 seconds. These fractions indicate a brisk but honest tempo that should set up stalkers while not being so demanding that early speed compromises itself. The winning filly will likely race within striking distance throughout before accelerating past rivals in deep stretch.
Key Contenders
Wits and Wagers represents Steve Asmussen’s stable with Keith Asmussen handling the riding assignment. The Asmussen barn’s six wins at the meet demonstrate consistent form, and this mare possesses the tactical speed to secure a favorable stalking position under the patient handling typical of the stable’s approach. The $30,000 claiming level fits this mare’s recent form cycle, and the Asmussen name carries significant weight in claiming events at Churchill Downs.
Tizntshelovely brings Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard for Dallas Stewart, creating a combination worth serious consideration. Stewart has been competitive throughout the fall meet, and Hernandez’s local knowledge provides distinct advantages when navigating Churchill’s turns. This three-year-old filly gets a four-pound weight advantage over older rivals and shows enough speed to stay in contact with the pace.
Secondary Choices
She’s No Angel represents James Baker with Adam Beschizza riding. Beschizza has shown developing skills during the meet and excels with fillies who possess natural speed. This four-year-old mare has tactical ability to sit a forward trip and could benefit if the pace becomes contentious. Baker’s training skills with claiming fillies merit respect.
Campaign Promises comes from Genaro Garcia’s barn with Axel Concepcion confirmed in the saddle. Concepcion’s nine wins at the meet make him one of the hottest riders, and his presence on this three-year-old filly indicates stable confidence. The four-pound weight concession provides a tangible advantage, and Garcia has been steady throughout the session.
Longshots
Dark Fury appears on the scratch watch due to trainer issues from an October 16 Keeneland starter race. If cleared to compete, Christopher Emigh’s riding for Brittany Vanden Berg creates value potential. The four-year-old mare has experience at this level and could surprise at generous odds if connections believe she has turned the corner.
Betting Strategy
A win bet on Wits and Wagers represents the soundest approach given the Asmussen barn’s consistency. For exotic coverage, a trifecta box using Wits and Wagers, Tizntshelovely, She’s No Angel, and Campaign Promises provides four legitimate contenders. Consider using this race as a spread leg in Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers where covering multiple horses makes sense given the competitive nature. The race sets up as potentially vulnerable for the favorite, creating value opportunities.
Selections
Win: Wits and Wagers
Place: Tizntshelovely
Show: Campaign Promises
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 4:25 PM
6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $120,000, Two-Year-Old Fillies, Weight 119 lbs
Pace Analysis
This maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies at six furlongs represents one of the most competitive races on the card with 16 potential starters creating a massive field. The purse of $120,000 indicates quality fillies with preference given to those who have not started for less than $50,000. Multiple fillies possess natural speed to contest the early lead, creating potential for significant fractional pressure through the opening quarter-mile.
The projected opening quarter should reach 22 flat with a half-mile split near 45 and change. These demanding fractions indicate that fillies who can rate kindly off the pace while maintaining striking position will have distinct advantages entering the stretch. Churchill Downs’ speed bias during the fall meet favors horses positioned within two lengths of the lead, but the massive field size creates traffic concerns that could compromise speed horses.
Key Contenders
Paradise represents Brad Cox’s powerhouse stable with Irad Ortiz Jr. confirmed in the saddle, creating the most formidable combination on the card. Cox’s nine wins at the meet combined with Ortiz Jr.’s 10 victories demonstrate remarkable consistency, and the duo excels with first-time starters and lightly raced fillies. This filly debuts for owners who typically invest in quality stock, and Cox’s training pattern with maiden special weight fillies at Churchill Downs has been highly profitable. The combination of top connections and favorable post position makes Paradise the horse to beat.
Aunt Sheryl brings Corey Lanerie aboard for Dale Romans, creating another combination worth serious consideration. Romans has been a Churchill Downs fixture for decades and knows how to place his horses to win. Despite appearing on the scratch watch from previous entries, if declared to run, this filly merits respect given Romans’ training prowess and Lanerie’s veteran presence. The Romans barn typically has juvenile fillies ready to fire winning efforts in their early starts.
Secondary Choices
Determined Ace represents Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz handling the riding duties. Ortiz has been exceptional at the meet with 14 wins leading all riders through two weeks. His choice of mount in this massive field indicates serious stable confidence, and DeVaux has shown ability to compete at this level. The filly possesses tactical speed to sit a forward trip and could prove dangerous if the pace becomes demanding.
Tap This Way comes from Mark Casse’s barn with Florent Geroux aboard, creating a combination that merits consideration. Casse ranks among North America’s elite trainers, and Geroux’s riding prowess makes any mount dangerous. This filly should be forwardly placed and could benefit from Geroux’s patient handling if early pace becomes fractious.
Longshots
Music Burst represents George Arnold with Luis Saez confirmed, creating value potential given Saez’s hot hand at the meet. The filly debuts for a barn that has shown competence with first-time starters, and Saez rarely accepts assignments on horses without genuine ability. Consider as a saver in trifecta and superfecta wagers.
Betting Strategy
Paradise deserves strong win consideration despite potential short odds, as the Cox-Ortiz combination represents the class of this field. For players seeking value, a two-horse exacta box using Paradise and Determined Ace provides solid coverage of the meet’s two leading riders. A trifecta wheel with Paradise on top over Determined Ace, Aunt Sheryl, and Tap This Way offers expanded coverage. Given the massive field size, superfecta and Pick 5 wagers present opportunities for significant payouts if using Paradise as a single.
Selections
Win: Paradise
Place: Determined Ace
Show: Aunt Sheryl
Race 9 – Allowance
Post Time: 4:55 PM
7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $127,000, Three-Year-Olds and Up, Non-Winners of a Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming or Starter
Pace Analysis
This allowance contest at 7 1/2 furlongs should develop with honest fractions as several horses possess the tactical speed to secure forward positions through the opening quarter-mile. The distance requires horses to maintain speed while also conserving energy for the stretch drive, creating a tactical test that favors horses with versatile running styles. Churchill Downs’ configuration at this distance typically produces times that fall between pure sprint and two-turn route fractions.
The projected opening quarter should reach 23 flat with a half-mile split near 46 and change. These moderate fractions indicate a pace scenario that should allow stalkers opportunities to make their moves entering the stretch while not being so slow that early speed dominates. Horses positioned within two to three lengths of the lead entering the far turn maintain significant advantages.
Key Contenders
Talbingo represents Brian Lynch’s stable with Irad Ortiz Jr. handling the riding assignment, creating another powerful combination featuring the meet’s leading rider. Lynch has shown competence throughout the fall session, and Ortiz Jr.’s presence on this four-year-old gelding indicates serious stable confidence. The horse possesses tactical speed to sit a perfect stalking trip under Ortiz Jr.’s patient handling before unleashing a powerful stretch rally. Lynch and Ortiz Jr. connected earlier in the meet with Wolfie’s Dynaghost in the River City Stakes, demonstrating their ability to win at this level.
Notah brings Luis Saez aboard for Mike Maker, creating a combination that merits serious consideration. Maker has been consistently competitive at Churchill Downs throughout his career, and Saez’s hot hand at the meet makes him a rider to follow. This five-year-old horse possesses versatile running style and should be forwardly placed throughout under Saez’s tactical guidance. The Maker-Saez combination excels in allowance company.
Secondary Choices
Fort Nelson represents William Mott’s powerful stable with Jaime Torres riding. Mott ranks among North America’s elite trainers, and any horse from his barn deserves respect regardless of rider assignment. This three-year-old colt gets a four-pound weight advantage over older rivals and shows enough tactical speed to stay in contact with the pace. Mott’s patient training approach should have this one ready for a peak performance.
Multiverse comes from Riley Mott’s barn with Tyler Gaffalione handling the assignment. Gaffalione’s 11 wins at the meet make him one of the hottest riders, and his choice of mount in this allowance spot indicates stable confidence. The three-year-old gelding possesses enough speed to sit a forward trip and could prove dangerous if allowed to establish a comfortable rhythm.
Longshots
Mc Vay represents Cherie DeVaux with Jose Ortiz confirmed in the saddle. Ortiz leads all riders at the meet with 14 wins, making any of his mounts worth consideration. This four-year-old colt faces a class test but comes from a barn capable of competing at this level. Consider as a saver in trifecta and superfecta wagers given Ortiz’s hot hand.
Betting Strategy
A win bet on Talbingo offers the soundest approach given Ortiz Jr.’s dominance and the Lynch barn’s form. For exotic coverage, a two-horse exacta box using Talbingo and Notah provides solid coverage of two prominent connections. A trifecta wheel with Talbingo on top over Notah, Fort Nelson, and Multiverse expands coverage while maintaining manageable cost. Consider using this race as a single in Pick 3 wagers or as the anchor leg of Pick 4 tickets beginning in Race 6.
Selections
Win: Talbingo
Place: Notah
Show: Fort Nelson
Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 5:24 PM
5 Furlongs Turf, Purse $120,000, Three-Year-Olds and Up Fillies and Mares, Weight 122-124 lbs
Pace Analysis
This maiden special weight turf sprint at five furlongs should develop into a speed duel from the opening jump with multiple fillies possessing enough natural ability to contest for the early lead. The short distance on turf requires horses to break alertly and establish position immediately, as the finish line arrives quickly after navigating the turn. The Matt Winn Turf Course with the rail at 24 feet should provide fair ground across multiple paths, though horses racing closer to the pace maintain advantages given the sprint distance.
The projected opening quarter should reach 22 flat with the race concluding near 56 seconds. These demanding fractions indicate that fillies with natural speed who can rate kindly will have distinct advantages over pure speed types who use too much energy early. Quality closers can win at this distance, but they need fast early fractions to set up their closing kicks.
Key Contenders
Aurora Sky represents Joe Sharp’s stable with Irad Ortiz Jr. confirmed in the saddle, creating another opportunity for the meet’s leading rider to showcase his talents. Ortiz Jr.’s 10 wins through two weeks demonstrate remarkable consistency across all surfaces and distances, and his presence on this turf sprint maiden indicates serious stable confidence. Sharp has been steady throughout the fall meet, and his fillies typically show up ready to fire winning efforts in maiden company.
Taverna brings Tyler Gaffalione aboard for Brendan Walsh, creating one of the most formidable combinations on the card. Walsh ranks third in the trainer standings with five wins, while Gaffalione sits second among jockeys with 11 victories. The Walsh barn excels with turf horses, and this filly should benefit from the patient training approach typical of connections. Gaffalione’s tactical brilliance on grass courses makes this combination particularly dangerous in turf sprints.
Secondary Choices
Justine represents Wesley Ward’s barn with Jose Ortiz handling the riding duties. Ward ranks among the premier turf trainers in North America, particularly with juvenile and lightly raced fillies on grass. Ortiz leads all riders at the meet with 14 wins, and his presence on this Ward trainee creates an intriguing combination. Ward’s training pattern with first-time turf starters has been highly profitable throughout his career.
Candy Mine comes from George Arnold’s barn with Luis Saez confirmed in the saddle. Saez has been exceptional at the meet and excels on the turf course with his patient riding style. Arnold has shown competence with turf horses, and Saez’s choice of mount in this competitive maiden event indicates stable confidence.
Longshots
Spring Dancer represents Randy Morse with Tyler Gaffalione riding, though this creates a scratch situation given Gaffalione also rides Taverna. If rider changes occur, monitor closely as Morse has shown ability to compete at this level. The filly possesses enough speed to stay in contact and could surprise at value odds.
Betting Strategy
The race presents a competitive betting scenario with multiple legitimate contenders. A win bet on Aurora Sky offers the soundest approach given Ortiz Jr.’s hot hand and Sharp’s consistency. For exotic coverage, a trifecta box using Aurora Sky, Taverna, Justine, and Candy Mine provides four horses with legitimate winning chances. Consider using this race as the final leg in Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 wagers where spreading coverage makes sense given the competitive nature. The large field creates opportunities for significant payouts in exacta and trifecta pools.
Selections
Win: Aurora Sky
Place: Taverna
Show: Justine
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. enters Thursday’s card as the meet’s leading rider with 10 wins through the first two weeks of the fall session. His mounts in Races 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, and 9 represent the strongest action on the card, with multiple horses from top-tier stables including Brad Cox and Brian Lynch. Ortiz Jr.’s patient riding style and impeccable timing make him particularly effective on Churchill’s one-turn configuration, and his 19% win rate demonstrates exceptional consistency. Key mounts include No Bees in Race 1, Global Quote in Race 2, Surprise in Race 3, Big to Do in Race 6, Paradise in Race 8, and Talbingo in Race 9.
Jose Ortiz sits atop the jockey standings with 14 wins leading all riders at the fall meet. His mounts in Races 9 and 10 provide opportunities to extend his lead, with Mc Vay and Justine both representing live chances in competitive fields. Jose has shown exceptional judgment when directing horses through traffic-laden scenarios, and his ability to find racing room in tight situations makes him particularly effective in large fields. The Ortiz brothers’ dominance at Churchill Downs creates multiple betting opportunities throughout the card.
Tyler Gaffalione ranks second in the standings with 11 wins through two weeks. His mount selection includes Kid Twist in Race 1, Wizard of Yester in Race 2, Spying in Race 3, Queen of Queens in Race 4, Governing Party in Race 6, Multiverse in Race 9, and Taverna in Race 10. Gaffalione’s tactical versatility allows him to excel with both speed horses and closers, and his success rate at Churchill Downs makes him a rider to follow throughout any racing card. His combination with trainer Brendan Walsh has been particularly effective during the fall meet.
Luis Saez brings strong form into Thursday’s card with multiple mounts for top-tier trainers. His rides include Fulmine in Race 1, Pippa’s Noncents in Race 4, Factor Analysis in Race 6, Music Burst in Race 8, Notah in Race 9, and Candy Mine in Race 10. Saez’s patient style and surgical placement make him particularly effective in turf races and route events where tactical positioning matters significantly. His recent stakes victory with Wolfie’s Dynaghost in the River City demonstrates his ability to win at the highest levels at Churchill Downs.
Axel Concepcion enters the card with nine wins through two weeks, ranking third in the jockey standings. His mount selection includes Just Like Max in Race 1, Mission Improbable in Race 6, Campaign Promises in Race 7, Love Knicks Hart in Race 4, Real Nice Surprise in Race 5, and Contemplate in Race 10. Concepcion has shown developing skills throughout the meet and excels when partnered with claiming-level horses where small class edges determine outcomes.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox dominates the trainer standings with nine wins through the first two weeks of the fall meet, establishing himself as the conditioner to follow throughout the session. His entries include Global Quote in Race 2, Surprise in Race 3, and Paradise in Race 8. Cox’s 30% strike rate with maidens and his exceptional record with claiming horses dropping in class make his entries worth strong consideration regardless of odds. The combination of Cox’s training prowess with top-tier riders like Irad Ortiz Jr. creates betting opportunities that should produce consistent returns throughout the meet.
Steve Asmussen ranks second in the trainer standings with six wins entering Thursday’s card. His entries include Volatile Nite in Race 5, Aspenite in Race 6, Wits and Wagers in Race 7, Stay in Tune in Race 8, and Faust in Race 9. Asmussen’s consistency with maiden claiming fillies and his success rate in sprint races make his entries particularly attractive in lower-level conditions. The Asmussen barn typically fires winning efforts after patient placement, and his horses often improve significantly in second and third starts.
Brendan Walsh enters the card ranking third in the trainer standings with five wins. His entries include Pippa’s Noncents in Race 4, Spying in Race 3, and Taverna in Race 10. Walsh excels with first-time starters and lightly raced horses, particularly fillies competing in maiden and allowance company. His combination with jockey Tyler Gaffalione has been highly effective throughout the meet, and Walsh’s training pattern with turf horses shows exceptional profitability at Churchill Downs.
Dale Romans brings decades of Churchill Downs experience into Thursday’s card with entries including Sound Cause in Race 2 and Aunt Sheryl in Race 8. Romans’ local knowledge and patient training approach make his horses particularly dangerous when entered in appropriate spots. His strike rate with lightly raced horses shows consistent improvement from debut to subsequent starts, and his use of veteran jockey Corey Lanerie indicates serious stable confidence.
Mike Maker enters multiple horses across the card including Governing Party in Race 6 and Notah in Race 9. Maker’s versatility across surfaces and distances makes his stable entries worth consideration in any spot. His combination with top-tier riders creates formidable partnerships, and his horses typically show up ready to fire peak efforts when entered in stakes and allowance company.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Churchill Downs Thursday card presents multiple opportunities for value-based wagering given the competitive nature of several races and the presence of large fields in maiden claiming events. The Pick 4 beginning in Race 7 offers substantial value potential, as the claiming sprint for fillies and mares appears vulnerable for favorites, while Races 8, 9, and 10 all feature competitive maiden and allowance conditions where upset possibilities exist.
A conservative Pick 4 approach using single horses in Races 8 and 9 with Paradise and Talbingo respectively, while spreading in Races 7 and 10, creates a ticket with solid win probability at manageable cost. For aggressive players, spreading all four legs using four horses per race generates 256 combinations but provides extensive coverage of competitive scenarios.
The Pick 5 beginning in Race 6 presents opportunities for significant returns given the turf claiming race, two competitive dirt sprints, an allowance contest, and a turf maiden special weight. Using Big to Do as a single in Race 6 while spreading Races 7 through 10 creates a ticket structure that balances cost with coverage. The massive fields in Races 8 and 10 suggest that spreading coverage in those spots makes mathematical sense given payout potential.
Rolling Daily Doubles throughout the card provides another wagering avenue, particularly connecting races featuring top riders with competitive subsequent races. The Double connecting Races 2 and 3 using Global Quote and Surprise creates a ticket featuring Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. in both races, while the Double connecting Races 8 and 9 using Paradise and Talbingo offers similar value with the same jockey-trainer combination.
Exacta and trifecta betting in the maiden claiming races offers value opportunities given the large fields and competitive nature. Race 4 with 11 potential starters and Race 5 with 14 potential starters both present scenarios where spreading coverage using four or five horses creates tickets with reasonable cost while providing substantial payout potential. Focus on combinations featuring top riders like Irad Ortiz Jr., Luis Saez, and Tyler Gaffalione in these competitive spots.
Single-race betting opportunities exist in Races 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, and 9 where horses from top-tier stables draw leading riders. Straight win bets on No Bees, Global Quote, Surprise, Big to Do, Paradise, and Talbingo create a ticket structure that balances risk with reward while focusing on the most prominent connections throughout the card. These horses represent the class of their respective races and should produce consistent returns despite potentially modest odds.
