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Churchill Downs features a diverse 10-race card on Sunday, November 16, 2025, including maiden claiming events, allowance races, and competitive claiming contests on dirt and turf. The Fall Meet continues with exciting racing from morning until late afternoon, with the first post at 1:00 PM CST. The card offers bettors multiple wagering opportunities including early and late Pick 5 sequences and a Pick 6 carryover jackpot of $128,820.
Handicappers should note this is the day after the prestigious Claiming Crown card at Churchill Downs, which drew nationwide connections to Louisville. The Sunday card features several trainers and jockeys who are riding at high percentages during the current meet.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for Sunday, November 16, 2025 calls for sunny conditions with a high temperature of 56°F and a low of 34°F. Clear skies and dry conditions are expected throughout the racing program, which should result in a fast main track and firm turf course.
The favorable weather represents a significant advantage for handicapping, as both surfaces should play consistently throughout the card. The cooler temperatures and sunny conditions are typical for mid-November racing in Louisville and should not present any challenges for horses or jockeys.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Churchill Downs displays certain tendencies that handicappers need to consider in their analysis. On the dirt track at races of one mile or more, inside posts have a distinct advantage, with 15% of winners starting from the rail positions. Post five has been especially effective across all distances, producing 17% of route race winners and 22% of sprint winners breaking from this position.
In route races over the main track, nearly 30% of winners are drawn from posts three and four, making middle post positions highly desirable. Conversely, the inside post in sprints produces only 8% of winners despite common assumptions that rail positions favor speed in shorter races. Outside posts in larger fields can be problematic, particularly when horses need to expend additional energy to secure favorable early position.
The track configuration at Churchill Downs rewards horses that can save ground on the turns while avoiding early traffic. Middle post positions offer the best balance of flexibility and ground-saving opportunities. Handicappers should adjust their selections accordingly, particularly in competitive fields where post position can be the determining factor between similar contenders.
Race 1 – Maiden Claiming Fillies and Mares
Post Time: 1:00 PM CST
This seven and one-half furlong maiden claiming event for fillies and mares three years old and upward features a compact field of six runners with a claiming price of $100,000. The distance and class level suggest these are horses with some ability who have faced quality competition in their previous efforts.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario should develop moderately, with multiple horses capable of showing early speed. The compact field reduces the likelihood of a suicidal early pace, but handicappers should identify which runners will contest the early lead and whether any will be forwardly placed to track the pace. At this distance, tactical speed and ability to rate becomes crucial.
Key Contenders
Plaza Cue represents trainer Kenneth McPeek and draws post five, which has proven to be the most productive starting position at Churchill Downs. This filly brings tactical speed and the ability to position herself favorably in the run to the first turn. McPeek maintains a solid 15% win rate with 42% in-the-money percentage at the current meet, making this barn a consistent source of winners. The combination of favorable post position and strong connections makes her a formidable contender.
Executive Suite ships in for powerhouse trainer Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle. Cox leads all trainers at the current Churchill Downs meet with 11 wins from 36 starts, representing a 31% strike rate. The trainer’s success with first-time starters and horses making their second or third career start is well-documented. Ortiz Jr. provides world-class tactical riding and should position this filly perfectly throughout the race.
Secondary Choices
Nana Grace trains under Thomas Amoss and benefits from the services of Jose Ortiz. Amoss ranks among the top trainers at the meet with six wins from 16 starts. Jose Ortiz complements his brother Irad as one of the premier riders in North America and should extract maximum effort from this runner. The outside post provides options to sit off the pace or press forward depending on how the race develops.
Selections
Win: Plaza Cue
Place: Executive Suite
Show: Nana Grace
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight Fillies
Post Time: 1:29 PM CST
This one-mile maiden special weight contest for two-year-old fillies features seven runners competing for a purse of $92,000. The race is restricted to horses that sold or RNA’d for $65,000 or less in their most recent auction, creating a level playing field in terms of pedigree and acquisition cost.
Pace Analysis
The pace should develop honestly with multiple fillies expected to show early speed. The one-mile distance allows for pace assessment and positioning battles through the first turn and down the backstretch. Horses with tactical speed and the ability to settle will have an advantage over those that must use energy to establish position early.
Key Contenders
Killa Sally represents the Kenneth McPeek barn with Brian Hernandez Jr. riding. McPeek enters this race with confidence having already sent Plaza Cue into the first race. Hernandez Jr. has been riding exceptionally well at Churchill Downs and understands the nuances of the racing surface. The combination of trainer form and jockey skill makes this filly dangerous in a maiden event.
Sister Wife brings Luis Saez to Louisville for trainer Thomas Van Berg. Saez ranks among the leading riders nationwide and rarely ships to Churchill Downs without live mounts. His presence indicates strong confidence from the barn, and his tactical acumen should prove valuable in navigating the one-mile distance.
Secondary Choices
Menkaure represents trainer William Walden with Axel Concepcion handling the riding assignment. Concepcion has shown improved form at the current meet and Walden traditionally brings competitive horses to Churchill Downs. This filly has trained forwardly and appears ready for her debut effort.
Selections
Win: Sister Wife
Place: Killa Sally
Show: Menkaure
Race 3 – Claiming Fillies and Mares
Post Time: 1:58 PM CST
The one and one-sixteenth mile claiming race for non-winners of two races features a competitive field of ten fillies and mares. The $20,000 claiming price and route distance attract a variety of running styles. The weight allowances favor horses that haven’t won at a mile or over recently, adding another layer to the handicapping puzzle.
Pace Analysis
With ten horses entered, pace dynamics become critical to handicapping success. Multiple horses will show early speed, creating the possibility of a contested pace scenario. Route races at Churchill Downs often favor horses with closing kicks, particularly when the early pace is honest. Handicappers should identify horses with tactical speed that can secure favorable stalking positions.
Key Contenders
Marelow represents elite trainer John Servis with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding from post nine. The outside post position is less concerning in route races where horses have time to establish position. Ortiz Jr.’s presence indicates strong confidence from the barn, and this three-year-old filly receives a two-pound weight allowance. The combination of elite connections and favorable class placement makes her a formidable favorite.
Skylarose trains for William Cowans with Brian Hernandez Jr. handling riding duties. Hernandez Jr. excels at rating horses in route races and understanding pace dynamics. The middle post position provides tactical flexibility, and this filly has shown the ability to close into reasonable pace scenarios.
Secondary Choices
Fifth Wheel represents Michael Lauer from post two. The inside posts have proven advantageous in Churchill Downs route races, with 15% of winners coming from these positions. This three-year-old filly also benefits from the weight allowance and could secure a ground-saving trip from the inside.
Selections
Win: Marelow
Place: Skylarose
Show: Fifth Wheel
Race 4 – Claiming Turf Fillies and Mares
Post Time: 2:27 PM CST
This one and one-sixteenth mile turf race for fillies and mares non-winners of three races features a full field of ten runners competing for a purse of $83,000. The race will be contested over the firm turf course given the favorable weather conditions. The $80,000 claiming price and distance attract quality grass runners with proven form.
Pace Analysis
Turf races typically develop with moderate early fractions as horses seek to establish position through the early stages. The one and one-sixteenth mile distance on turf rewards horses with sustained runs from off the pace. Handicappers should identify closers with favorable running styles and connections demonstrating turf expertise.
Key Contenders
Good Long Cry ships in for trainer George Weaver with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding. Ortiz Jr. makes his third consecutive appearance on favored runners, demonstrating the quality of his mounts throughout the card. Weaver specializes in turf racing and brings horses to Churchill Downs with specific targets in mind. This three-year-old filly benefits from the weight allowance and should get a ground-saving trip.
Cha Cha Chukka represents Michael Maker with Luis Saez in the irons. Maker ranks among the premier turf trainers in North America with deep understanding of grass racing. Saez provides elite tactical riding and should position this mare perfectly throughout the race. The trainer-jockey combination has proven successful throughout the meet.
Secondary Choices
Surprenant Cocca trains under Michael Maker with Jose Ortiz riding. Maker’s two-entry strategy indicates strong confidence in both runners. The Ortiz brothers aboard Maker trainees creates a powerful betting proposition, and handicappers should consider using both horses in exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: Good Long Cry
Place: Cha Cha Chukka
Show: Surprenant Cocca
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming Three and Up
Post Time: 2:57 PM CST
The seven and one-half furlong maiden claiming race for three-year-olds and upward features a full field of ten males competing for a $100,000 claiming tag. This distance and class level attracts horses with various experience levels seeking their first career victory.
Pace Analysis
Maiden races for older horses often develop unpredictably, with multiple runners showing early speed before tiring. The seven and one-half furlong distance requires horses to show both speed and stamina. Handicappers should focus on runners with improving form patterns and quality connections capable of finding the winning formula.
Key Contenders
Backside represents Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding from post nine. Cox’s 31% win rate at the meet combined with Ortiz Jr.’s tactical brilliance creates a powerful combination. Despite the outside post, Ortiz Jr. has demonstrated ability to overcome post position disadvantages through smart riding. This colt should benefit from the Cox barn’s expertise with developing horses.
Barker brings Luis Saez to Churchill Downs for trainer Christopher Davis. Saez makes another appearance on the card, indicating the quality of his book throughout the program. Post five has proven exceptionally productive at Churchill Downs across all distances, giving this gelding a significant positional advantage.
Secondary Choices
Buddy Mac trains for Thomas Drury Jr. with Brian Hernandez Jr. handling riding duties. Hernandez Jr. continues to demonstrate consistency throughout the card, and Drury brings competitive horses to Churchill Downs. The middle post provides tactical flexibility in a large field.
Selections
Win: Backside
Place: Barker
Show: Buddy Mac
Race 6 – Claiming Route
Post Time: 3:26 PM CST
This one and one-sixteenth mile claiming race for three-year-olds and upward features competitive older horses at the $40,000 level. The distance and class attract horses with proven form at the route trip. The non-winners of two races at a mile or over condition creates opportunities for improving horses.
Pace Analysis
The pace should develop moderately with several horses capable of establishing early positions. Route races at Churchill Downs favor horses that can rate kindly and produce sustained late runs. With ten horses entered, traffic concerns become paramount, and post position advantages should be considered carefully.
Key Contenders
Carolo Rapido represents trainer Eddie Kenneally with Irad Ortiz Jr. making his fourth consecutive mount as a favorite or near-favorite. Ortiz Jr.’s presence indicates strong confidence from connections, and his tactical skill should prove invaluable in navigating traffic in a ten-horse field. The four-year-old colt appears well-positioned at this claiming level.
Quality Chic trains under Steven Asmussen with Erik Asmussen handling riding duties. The father-son combination has proven successful throughout the meet, and Asmussen ranks among the all-time leading trainers at Churchill Downs. This gelding has shown consistent form at the claiming level and should appreciate the distance.
Secondary Choices
Elusive Target represents trainer Joe Sharp with Jose Ortiz riding from post two. Sharp maintains steady form at the meet, and Ortiz provides world-class riding ability. The inside post position creates a ground-saving opportunity in a route race, which has proven advantageous at Churchill Downs.
Selections
Win: Carolo Rapido
Place: Quality Chic
Show: Elusive Target
Race 7 – Allowance Route
Post Time: 3:55 PM CST
The one and one-eighth mile allowance race for non-winners of two races features eight horses competing for a purse of $127,000. This class level attracts horses moving up from maiden and claiming ranks seeking to establish themselves at higher levels. The distance favors horses with proven stamina and tactical speed.
Pace Analysis
With eight horses entered, the pace should develop honestly without being suicidal. The one and one-eighth mile distance provides ample time for horses to establish position and make their moves. Handicappers should focus on horses with improving form patterns and connections demonstrating confidence through aggressive riding assignments.
Key Contenders
Pagode represents Paulo Lobo with Irad Ortiz Jr. making yet another significant mount. Ortiz Jr.’s consistent presence on quality horses throughout the card demonstrates his book strength. This three-year-old gelding receives a weight allowance and appears to be developing into a solid allowance-level performer.
Chillax trains for Hall of Fame conditioner William Mott with Junior Alvarado riding. Mott ranks among the most successful trainers in North American racing history, and his presence at Churchill Downs typically indicates serious intentions. Alvarado provides veteran savvy and tactical skill that should prove valuable at this distance.
Secondary Choices
Energize ships in for trainer Michael Stidham with Luis Saez handling the assignment. Saez continues to demonstrate consistency throughout the card with multiple mounts for quality barns. This three-year-old gelding receives weight allowances and appears ready to compete at the allowance level.
Selections
Win: Pagode
Place: Chillax
Show: Energize
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight Fillies
Post Time: 4:25 PM CST
This five and one-half furlong maiden special weight sprint for two-year-old fillies features a massive field of 15 runners competing for a purse of $120,000. The race carries preference to horses that have not started for less than $50,000, indicating quality throughout the field. This race presents significant challenges due to field size and pace dynamics.
Pace Analysis
With 15 fillies entered, the pace will be extremely contentious from the start. Multiple horses will show blazing early speed, likely resulting in a pace meltdown scenario. Handicappers should focus on fillies with tactical speed that can secure stalking positions without being caught in the early speed duel. Closers with powerful late kicks could benefit from the expected pace collapse.
Key Contenders
Fashion Designer represents Brad Cox with Florent Geroux riding from post six. Cox’s dominance at the meet continues, and Geroux provides Hall of Fame caliber riding. Post six in a 15-horse field offers reasonable position without being trapped inside or forced extremely wide. Cox excels with juvenile fillies making their career debuts.
Winning Matters trains for Dallas Stewart with Irad Ortiz Jr. handling the assignment. Stewart maintains consistent form at Churchill Downs, and Ortiz Jr. makes his sixth consecutive mount on a favored runner. This combination indicates strong confidence, and the post position provides tactical flexibility.
Secondary Choices
Mighty Hankerin represents Norm Casse with Jose Ortiz riding. The Casse family has established tremendous success at Churchill Downs over multiple generations. Jose Ortiz provides elite riding ability, and this filly has trained impressively leading to her debut.
Selections
Win: Fashion Designer
Place: Winning Matters
Show: Mighty Hankerin
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming Turf
Post Time: 4:55 PM CST
This five and one-half furlong turf sprint for fillies and mares features 13 runners competing for a purse of $134,000. The allowance optional claiming condition with an $80,000 tag creates a competitive field mixing allowance-level performers with quality claimers. The firm turf course should produce honest fractions.
Pace Analysis
Turf sprints typically develop with extreme early speed as horses battle for position entering the turn. With 13 runners, traffic concerns become paramount, and post position advantages diminish on the grass. Handicappers should focus on horses with tactical speed that can secure favorable stalking positions without being caught in early speed duels.
Key Contenders
Don’t Say It represents Brad Cox with Florent Geroux riding from the rail. Cox continues his dominance throughout the card, and Geroux provides expert turf riding ability. The rail post on turf can be advantageous for horses with tactical speed, allowing them to save ground throughout. This combination has proven successful in similar conditions.
Niki Nine Doors trains for Christopher Davis with Irad Ortiz Jr. handling the assignment. Ortiz Jr. makes his seventh consecutive mount on a favored runner, demonstrating exceptional book quality. Davis has prepared this mare specifically for turf sprinting, and the connections indicate strong confidence.
Secondary Choices
Tales of The Heart represents Michael Maker with Jose Ortiz riding. Maker’s turf expertise is well-established, and Ortiz provides elite riding ability. This Irish-bred filly should appreciate the firm turf conditions and has shown tactical speed in previous efforts.
Selections
Win: Don’t Say It
Place: Niki Nine Doors
Show: Tales of The Heart
Race 10 – Starter Allowance
Post Time: 5:24 PM CST
The closing one and one-sixteenth mile starter allowance features 14 horses competing for a purse of $83,000. The condition restricts the race to horses that have started for $50,000 or less claiming tags and have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or waiver claiming events. This creates a competitive field of improving horses.
Pace Analysis
With 14 horses entered, pace dynamics and traffic management become critical factors. The distance provides time for pace assessment, but the large field creates challenges in securing favorable position. Handicappers should focus on horses drawn in middle posts with tactical speed and proven ability to handle route distances.
Key Contenders
Laughnowcrylater represents Michael McCarthy with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding from post 12. Despite the outside post, Ortiz Jr.’s tactical brilliance and McCarthy’s training expertise create a formidable combination. This gelding has shown improving form and should benefit from the class level and distance.
Excel Calculator trains under David Jacobson with Luis Saez handling the assignment. Jacobson ranks among the leading trainers at the meet with strong win percentage and earnings. Saez provides consistent tactical riding, and this gelding appears well-positioned at this level.
Secondary Choices
Papa Yo represents Chris Hartman with Tyler Bacon riding. Hartman maintains solid form at the meet with 12% win rate and 36% in-the-money percentage. Bacon has shown improved form recently, and this gelding has demonstrated ability at this distance and class level.
Selections
Win: Laughnowcrylater
Place: Excel Calculator
Show: Papa Yo
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. dominates the riding assignments throughout the card with seven quality mounts including several favorites. His presence on multiple horses trained by different barns demonstrates his status as the premier rider nationwide. Ortiz Jr. excels at tactical riding, traffic management, and extracting maximum effort from his mounts. Handicappers should pay close attention to his mounts throughout the card.
Luis Saez ships to Churchill Downs with six mounts across the card. Saez rarely travels to Churchill Downs without live horses, and his presence indicates strong confidence from multiple training barns. His tactical skill and finishing ability make him dangerous in all race types.
The Ortiz brothers Jose and Irad combine to ride on 13 races throughout the card, creating a powerful betting proposition. Both brothers rank among the elite riders in North America and demonstrate tactical brilliance. Handicappers should consider using both brothers in exotic wagers when they appear on quality horses.
Brian Hernandez Jr. represents the local riding colony and continues to demonstrate consistency at Churchill Downs. His understanding of the racing surface and tactical nuances provides advantages over visiting riders. Hernandez Jr. excels at rating horses and timing moves perfectly.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox leads all trainers at the current Churchill Downs meet with 11 wins from 36 starts, representing a remarkable 31% strike rate. Cox has multiple runners throughout the card and demonstrates expertise across all race types and distances. His success with maiden horses, developing allowance runners, and claiming horses makes every Cox starter a serious contender.
Kenneth McPeek brings multiple runners to the card with strong win and in-the-money percentages. McPeek excels at placing horses in appropriate spots and demonstrates patience in developing younger runners. His 15% win rate and 42% in-the-money percentage indicate consistent quality.
Michael Maker appears multiple times with turf runners, leveraging his expertise in grass racing. Maker ranks among the premier turf trainers in North America and rarely enters horses without legitimate winning chances. His understanding of turf racing dynamics provides significant advantages.
Steven Asmussen brings the weight of his Hall of Fame career to Churchill Downs with multiple starters. While his win percentage may not match Cox’s current form, Asmussen’s expertise and understanding of horse placement make every starter dangerous. His son Erik riding several mounts creates additional confidence indicators.
David Jacobson maintains steady form at the meet with quality runners at appropriate levels. His success with route horses and claiming runners makes his starters worthy of consideration, particularly when paired with quality riders.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The card presents numerous multi-race wager opportunities with the early Pick 5 beginning in Race 1 and the late Pick 5 starting in Race 6. The Pick 6 carryover of $128,820 creates added value for players willing to construct tickets including multiple horses in competitive races.
Handicappers should focus wagering attention on races featuring Brad Cox trainees paired with the Ortiz brothers. This combination has proven exceptionally successful throughout the meet and represents the highest percentage plays on the card. Single these combinations in Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 5 wagers when appropriate.
The massive 15-horse field in Race 8 creates opportunities for significant payoffs in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers. The chaotic pace scenario should produce surprising results, making this race ideal for spreading tickets using multiple horses in each position. Consider keying horses with tactical speed over deep closers in the bottom positions.
Race 10 closes the card with 14 runners and starter allowance conditions. This combination typically produces generous payoffs in exotic wagers. Focus on horses with improving form patterns and quality rider-trainer combinations. Consider building tickets using multiple horses on top with deeper spreads underneath.
Daily double opportunities exist throughout the card, particularly connecting races featuring Cox trainees or Ortiz brothers mounts. The Race 7-8 daily double offers value given the predictability of Race 7 compared to the chaos expected in Race 8’s 15-horse field.
Place and show wagering presents value on horses facing large fields at shorter odds. The Ortiz brothers’ mounts in competitive races often provide value in place and show pools when win odds compress below fair value. Consider win-place or place-show combinations on quality horses in large fields.
