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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.
Churchill Downs presents a 10-race card for Friday, November 21st, 2025, featuring a balanced mix of maiden, claiming, allowance, and maiden special weight events across both dirt and turf surfaces. The races span classic distances from six furlongs to one and one-sixteenth miles. Purse levels are competitive, with notable allowance and maiden purses drawing regional and national interest. Scratches are minimal and largely limited to secondary entries or horses listed as also-eligible for lower-level recent events, affecting depth but not key contenders in most fields. The card includes prominent jockeys such as Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, Luis Saez, and Tyler Gaffalione, and accomplished trainers including Steven Asmussen, Brad Cox, Chris Hartman, and Ken McPeek, all of whom have shown high recent win percentages at Churchill Downs.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecasts for Louisville indicate cool and dry conditions heading into race day, with temperatures hovering in the high 40s to low 50s Fahrenheit. Winds are light and there is no precipitation expected, indicating the main track should be fast throughout the card and turf listed as firm barring unexpected developments. No adverse weather is expected to impact the running style or bias, favoring both speed and off-the-pace runners depending on race dynamics and setup.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Recent Churchill Downs data reveals the dirt surface has displayed a slight preference for tactical speed but not pure wire job speed, with runners from positions 3-6 performing above average in one-mile races. Inside and middle posts have seen a modest advantage at sprint distances (6-7 furlongs) while turf races show no notable bias for post position, especially with the rail set at 36 feet. Race flows are expected to be honest, without extreme front-runner or deep-closing bias, though weather and maintenance may shift later in the card.
1st Race — Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time
1:00 PM CT
Pace Analysis
With only six entrants, the pace looks to be honest but not rapidly contested. Hailstorm and Authentic Gallop have shown run-to-the-lead tendencies, but neither is a need-the-lead type, opening the door for stalkers like First Player and Zambezi to apply pressure late.
Key Contenders
First Player returns to a class level where he excels and gets Irad Ortiz Jr., whose tactical riding style has led to high percentage wins for Asmussen. Zambezi, from the Jacobson barn, has numbers consistent with rallying into a tractable pace, and Tyler Gaffalione fits the horse’s off-the-pace style.
Secondary Choices
Authentic Gallop will be forwardly placed and could hang on for a share if able to relax early under Jose Ortiz for Amoss. Hailstorm also projects as a pace presence, but is vulnerable late.
Longshots
Solid Left will need marked improvement to compete but might round out exotics if the pace collapses.
Selections
Win: First Player
Place: Zambezi
Show: Authentic Gallop
2nd Race — Claiming, 6.5 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
1:29 PM CT
Pace Analysis
A balanced field with seven active runners (one scratch). Alongcomesawoman and Birthday Girl both have sprint speed, while Star Watch and Starlit Sofi have closing style suited for a setup if front-runners fade. Pace figures suggest a sustained run early that could pressure vulnerable front runners.
Key Contenders
Alongcomesawoman, with Saez riding for Kenneally, is expected to contend for the lead and has form to last at this level. Starlit Sofi fits well for Asmussen and Gaffalione and should move forward with a patient trip.
Secondary Choices
Minnesota Rose and Birthday Girl have enough tactical foot to get involved in the exotics if the field bunches late.
Longshots
Gold Del Mar and Star Watch will need improvement over recent efforts but could sneak up for minor shares if the pace falters.
Selections
Win: Alongcomesawoman
Place: Starlit Sofi
Show: Minnesota Rose
3rd Race — Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt
Post Time
1:58 PM CT
Pace Analysis
A nine-horse field sets up with multiple stretch runners, but Or Magique and Morlock both have tactical speed to secure advantageous positions early. Race figures point to a slower initial pace, putting pressure on closers to accelerate late.
Key Contenders
Or Magique stretches out and could be sharp for Lacy Pierce and French rider Vincent Cheminaud. Ky Do Declare, trained by the high-percentage Hartman barn and Bejarano, holds form and stamina for the distance.
Secondary Choices
Morlock for Kenneally/Saez and Come to Papa for Joe Sharp/Ortiz are both logical board hitters off recent figures.
Longshots
Concrete Cruiser and Mo Town Jazz could get involved late if the race breaks down but have yet to threaten this level.
Selections
Win: Or Magique
Place: Ky Do Declare
Show: Morlock
4th Race — Maiden Claiming, 6.5 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
2:27 PM CT
Pace Analysis
No shortage of early speed with Bold Baby Tender and Lady Pippa both possessing gate velocity. Cloud Number Nine and Brave Samantha might take up stalking roles, and closers will have opportunities if the pace is pressed.
Key Contenders
Lady Pippa gets a big rider upgrade to Gaffalione and figures to improve for Medina. Cloud Number Nine has shown potential and fits well for Williamson/Arrieta.
Secondary Choices
Adalene rates a shot for minor awards as does Sand Queen for Kenneally/Saez stepping down to maiden claiming.
Longshots
Classy Emily and Pauline’s Angel are possible outriders if a lineup forms across the stretch.
Selections
Win: Lady Pippa
Place: Cloud Number Nine
Show: Adalene
5th Race — Allowance, 1 Mile Turf
Post Time
2:57 PM CT
Pace Analysis
This turf allowance includes Swamp King and Patrol Squad Six both with speed tendencies. With the rail out 36 feet, early speed has an advantage, but So Special and East Village have the stamina to stalk and pounce late.
Key Contenders
East Village fits the McPeek/Irad Ortiz Jr. angle and should get a good trip just behind the leaders. So Special is a stablemate with competitive figures and rates near the top.
Secondary Choices
Easy Wind and Patrol Squad Six both have proven pace credentials and should factor if allowed to control early.
Longshots
Time for Money and Infiltrate may outrun listings if turf conditions remain firm.
Selections
Win: East Village
Place: So Special
Show: Patrol Squad Six
6th Race — Maiden Claiming, 6.5 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
3:26 PM CT
Pace Analysis
A large eleven-horse field projects a contested pace; Herbs Bolt and Show Me the Munny will drive forward early, while mid-pack runners like Coal Fired and Talmadge should get a trip.
Key Contenders
Herbs Bolt for Ortiz Jr./Sharp is poised for a maiden win. Coal Fired draws Saez and Lynch, both high-percentage connections in these events.
Secondary Choices
Show Me the Munny and Talmadge should hold the pace for exotics.
Longshots
Royal Sapphire and Orville’s Map have shown little but could improve with racing experience.
Selections
Win: Herbs Bolt
Place: Coal Fired
Show: Show Me the Munny
7th Race — Claiming, 7 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
3:55 PM CT
Pace Analysis
A larger field will result in a pressured front end with Feasible and Brunch With Amy looking quickest early. Atlantic Passage and Moon Over Choctaw can sit just off and capitalize late.
Key Contenders
Atlantic Passage, with Ortiz and Brisset, has tactical versatility and closing punch. Brunch With Amy rates for a forward trip under Irad Ortiz Jr..
Secondary Choices
Feasible and Sugar Hi are reasonable exotics plays if the leaders hold together.
Longshots
Late to the Game and Aunt Mo offer value for trifectas given past ratings.
Selections
Win: Atlantic Passage
Place: Brunch With Amy
Show: Feasible
8th Race — Maiden Special Weight, 1 1/16 Miles Turf
Post Time
4:25 PM CT
Pace Analysis
A deep and competitive field with multiple first-time starters and lightly raced horses. Third Kiss and Miss Pharaoh likely to show pace; Thames and Chere Amia can kneel toward stalking trips. Turf conditions, with the rail at 36, should benefit adaptable runners.
Key Contenders
Third Kiss for Mott/Gaffalione sits atop the class stack and should relish the trip. Worry Be Gone, in the Cox barn with Irad Ortiz Jr., is a danger.
Secondary Choices
Clairita and Eenymeanymightymo have sneaky pedigree and form enough for exotics.
Longshots
Twolatebabydoll (FR) and Real Assay are playable if the pace is hotter than anticipated.
Selections
Win: Third Kiss
Place: Worry Be Gone
Show: Clairita
9th Race — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt
Post Time
4:55 PM CT
Pace Analysis
Gun Party and Mackman both project speed; Capital Idea and Jayhawk should find stalking trips. Catching Freedom arrives off sharp efforts and looks to pounce late in a competitive field.
Key Contenders
Catching Freedom for Cox/Irad Ortiz Jr. has top recent Beyers and should get a dream trip with tactical gear. Jayhawk for Casse/Gaffalione is a logical board hitter.
Secondary Choices
Capital Idea and Gun Party are both playable underneath and should benefit if top choices duel late.
Longshots
Best Actor may land a share if the front collapses.
Selections
Win: Catching Freedom
Place: Jayhawk
Show: Capital Idea
10th Race — Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
5:24 PM CT
Pace Analysis
This field offers multiple front types, with Legal Lightning, Cara Felce, and Poppy Woppy projecting significant early interest. Lady Got Game and Fleeting Moon look well drawn for stalking setups if favorite’s burn out.
Key Contenders
Lady Got Game for Ortiz/Lobo is well placed for a sharp debut. Miss Blanco for Maker/Gaffalione has the right pedigree and working pattern.
Secondary Choices
Legal Lightning and Fleeting Moon offer solid exotics play.
Longshots
Smart Little Lass and Fizzy Lass for Norris and Stewart could hit the board if pace collapses.
Selections
Win: Lady Got Game
Place: Miss Blanco
Show: Legal Lightning
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. and Tyler Gaffalione remain the dominant Churchill Downs riders, scoring well above average in route and sprint events; their mounts are consistently live in both maiden and allowance company. Jose Ortiz and Luis Saez are close behind in terms of win and ITM percentages, particularly in claiming and maiden claiming races, and have shown an ability to coax improved efforts from lower-level runners.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steven Asmussen, Brad Cox, and Chris Hartman represent the strongest stables with high win and ITM percentages during the fall meets. Cox’s horses often improve second or third time off the layoff, and Hartman’s runners excel in maiden claiming settings. Ken McPeek tends to place two-year-olds and lightly raced turf horses well, and Amoss/Sharp maintain consistent strike rates at the $30,000-$80,000 claiming levels.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Priority should be given to multi-race wagers including the featured turf allowance (Race 5) and deeper maiden fields (Races 8 and 10), as both offer vulnerable favorites and competitive alternatives. Under-used overlays include longshot Twolatebabydoll (Race 8) and Best Actor (Race 9); both project to outperform their morning line under the right race flow. Exacta and trifecta keys are best centered on the top two selections in each field but include a single value play longshot underneath for maximum coverage given potential wide spreads late in the program. Utilize horizontal wagers targeting races 5 to 9, folding in likely favorites for coverage but swinging against public money where logical alternatives exist.
