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Churchill Downs hosts a full 11-race card today, November 22, 2025, with a mix of maiden claiming, allowance, and stakes races on both dirt and turf. The feature is the Grade III Commonwealth Turf at 1 1/16 miles on turf. The day is notable for several maiden special weight races and claiming events, attracting strong sophomore and filly entries. The race day is marked by a fast main track and good turf, with recent race flows showing a preference for tactical speed or stalkers rather than pure speed or deep closers, especially in one-mile races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Churchill Downs today includes patchy rain and mild temperatures, with highs around 58°F and lows around 46°F. There is a high chance of precipitation, with showers expected throughout the day. The main track is listed as fast, and the turf is rated good, with the rail set at 36 feet for turf events. The fast dirt and good turf should favor horses with tactical speed, especially those with inside to mid-post positions.
Post Position Bias
Recent data shows a strong advantage for posts 4-6 in dirt sprints, with post 5 performing exceptionally well. In one-mile dirt races, posts 3-6 have outperformed others, indicating a preference for inside to middle posts. Turf races have not shown a notable post position bias, especially with the rail set farther out at 36 feet.
1st Race
Post Time
01:00 PM
Pace Analysis
Expect a moderate early pace with multiple horses capable of pressing the lead. Stay Beautiful and Broadway Musical should be near the front, setting up a balanced pace.
Key Contenders
Stay Beautiful is trained by Steven Asmussen and has a solid pedigree. Broadway Musical has good connections and a promising debut. Both are likely to be involved early.
Secondary Choices
Midnight Flight and Beautiful McKinzie have respectable connections and could benefit from the pace.
Longshots
Golexgo is listed as also-eligible and may run if scratched. Flying for Triumph and G Rocks could surprise if the pace is hot.
Betting Strategy
Wagering should focus on horses with tactical speed and inside to mid-post draws. Key exotics should include Stay Beautiful, Broadway Musical, and Beautiful McKinzie.
Selections
Win: Stay Beautiful
Place: Broadway Musical
Show: Beautiful McKinzie
2nd Race
Post Time
01:29 PM
Pace Analysis
The pace should be honest, with Cinnamon Sugar and Starlit Nite expected to lead or stalk early.
Key Contenders
Cinnamon Sugar and Starlit Nite have strong connections and recent form. Both are likely to be competitive from the start.
Secondary Choices
Dos Amores and Lady Virago have been running well and could move forward.
Longshots
Sweet Espresso and Aye Bay Bay are possible upset picks if the pace is pressured.
Betting Strategy
Stick with horses from the first three posts and consider including Dos Amores and Lady Virago in your exotics.
Selections
Win: Cinnamon Sugar
Place: Starlit Nite
Show: Dos Amores
3rd Race
Post Time
01:58 PM
Pace Analysis
Expect a steady pace with Argan and Copper Em likely to set the tempo.
Key Contenders
Argan and Copper Em are both trained by experienced handlers and have strong resumes. They should be involved throughout.
Secondary Choices
Patty Van Twinkle and Curlin’s Magic have recent wins and could challenge.
Longshots
Promises to Dance and Always Angels could benefit if the pace is hot.
Betting Strategy
Wager on horses with early speed and tactical profiles. Consider a win bet on Argan and a place bet on Copper Em.
Selections
Win: Argan
Place: Copper Em
Show: Patty Van Twinkle
4th Race
Post Time
02:28 PM
Pace Analysis
The pace should be brisk, with Math Tutor and Ravin’s Ransom likely to be prominent.
Key Contenders
Math Tutor and Ravin’s Ransom have shown speed in previous outings. Both are legitimate contenders.
Secondary Choices
Kirin and Sexagenarian could move forward and challenge.
Longshots
Bottles is listed as also-eligible and may run if scratched. Shan and Charbonnay could surprise.
Betting Strategy
Wager on horses from posts 1-4 and consider a win bet on Math Tutor and an exacta box with Ravin’s Ransom.
Selections
Win: Math Tutor
Place: Ravin’s Ransom
Show: Kirin
5th Race
Post Time
02:57 PM
Pace Analysis
The pace is likely to be moderate, with My Sexy Blonde and Tricky Kitty expected to lead.
Key Contenders
My Sexy Blonde and Tricky Kitty have solid turf records and are well-connected. Both are likely to be in the mix.
Secondary Choices
Modarosa and Princess Attitude have recent form and could challenge.
Longshots
Appellate and Caitlin Time could benefit if the pace is fast.
Betting Strategy
Focus on horses with proven turf speed. Key exotics should include My Sexy Blonde, Tricky Kitty, and Modarosa.
Selections
Win: My Sexy Blonde
Place: Tricky Kitty
Show: Modarosa
6th Race
Post Time
03:26 PM
Pace Analysis
Expect a steady pace, with Crevalla de Vil and Hope Rising likely to set the tempo.
Key Contenders
Crevalla de Vil and Hope Rising have strong trainers and have shown early speed.
Secondary Choices
Lets Shance It and Sonic Sass could move forward.
Longshots
Souperrazzledazzle and Justice Addition could surprise if the pace is hot.
Betting Strategy
Wager on horses from posts 1-5 and consider a win bet on Crevalla de Vil and an exacta box with Hope Rising.
Selections
Win: Crevalla de Vil
Place: Hope Rising
Show: Lets Shance It
7th Race
Post Time
03:55 PM
Pace Analysis
The pace should be honest, with Aggro and I Had That One Too expected to be involved.
Key Contenders
Aggro and I Had That One Too have solid records and connections.
Secondary Choices
Fasta Lavista Baby and Manage Xpectations could challenge.
Longshots
Mizmalice and Fourfiftyseven could benefit if the pace is pressured.
Betting Strategy
Wager on horses with early speed and tactical profiles. Consider a win bet on Aggro and a place bet on I Had That One Too.
Selections
Win: Aggro
Place: I Had That One Too
Show: Fasta Lavista Baby
8th Race
Post Time
04:25 PM
Pace Analysis
Expect a moderate pace with Off the Payroll and Marjoram likely to be involved early.
Key Contenders
Off the Payroll and Marjoram have strong trainers and have shown early speed.
Secondary Choices
Aunt Sheryl and Tapajo Belle could move forward.
Longshots
Joke Maker and Kayla’s Komet could surprise if the pace is fast.
Betting Strategy
Wager on horses from posts 1-4 and consider a win bet on Off the Payroll and an exacta box with Marjoram.
Selections
Win: Off the Payroll
Place: Marjoram
Show: Aunt Sheryl
9th Race
Post Time
04:55 PM
Pace Analysis
The pace should be steady, with Thunderhawk and Bob’s Carrot likely to be involved.
Key Contenders
Thunderhawk and Bob’s Carrot have strong records and connections.
Secondary Choices
Brody and Lou’s Legacy could challenge.
Longshots
The Chalk and Comes a Time could benefit if the pace is pressured.
Betting Strategy
Wager on horses with early speed and tactical profiles. Consider a win bet on Thunderhawk and a place bet on Bob’s Carrot.
Selections
Win: Thunderhawk
Place: Bob’s Carrot
Show: Brody
10th Race
Post Time
05:25 PM
Pace Analysis
Expect a moderate pace, with Troubleshooting and Montador likely to be involved early.
Key Contenders
Troubleshooting and Montador have strong trainers and recent form.
Secondary Choices
Giocoso and Chapman’s Peak could challenge.
Longshots
Anegada and Flying Mohawk could surprise if the pace is hot.
Betting Strategy
Focus on horses with proven turf speed. Key exotics should include Troubleshooting, Montador, and Giocoso.
Selections
Win: Troubleshooting
Place: Montador
Show: Giocoso
11th Race
Post Time
05:55 PM
Pace Analysis
The pace should be steady, with Vitruvian Man and Sleepingonfreedom likely to be involved.
Key Contenders
Vitruvian Man and Sleepingonfreedom have strong connections and early speed.
Secondary Choices
Collecting and Big Apple Patrick could challenge.
Longshots
Tisum and Seal Bay could benefit if the pace is pressured.
Betting Strategy
Wager on horses from posts 1-5 and consider a win bet on Vitruvian Man and an exacta box with Sleepingonfreedom.
Selections
Win: Vitruvian Man
Place: Sleepingonfreedom
Show: Collecting
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose L. Ortiz and Tyler Gaffalione are both in top form, with Ortiz having strong mounts across the card, including several maiden races and the stakes event. Gaffalione is particularly strong in claiming races and stakes, and his mounts should be respected. Irad Ortiz, Jr., Luis Saez, and Julien Leparoux all have mounts in high-profile races and are consistently among the leading riders at Churchill Downs.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steven Asmussen, Mark Casse, and Brad Cox are among the most successful trainers with multiple entries today. Asmussen has several strong chances in claiming and maiden events. Casse and Cox have entries in stakes races and maiden special weights, and their horses are well-prepared for Churchill Downs’ conditions.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Focus on horses from posts 4-6 in dirt sprints and posts 3-6 in one-mile dirt races. Value can be found in well-connected horses breaking from inside to middle posts, especially in maiden and claiming races. In stakes and allowance events, consider tactical speed horses trained by Asmussen, Casse, or Cox. Key longshots include also-eligible entries that draw in, particularly in maiden claiming events.
