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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Thanksgiving at Churchill Downs offers a 12‑race card anchored by the Grade 3 Falls City on dirt and the Cardinal Stakes on turf, with strong undercard allowances and high-end claimers spread across sprints and routes. The program starts at 11:30 a.m. Eastern and runs through a competitive six‑furlong allowance in Race 12.​

The dirt races are split between middle‑distance claimers and allowances (Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12), while the turf program consists of a high‑class allowance sprint in Race 7 and the Cardinal at nine furlongs in Race 11, both with the rail at 24 feet. The stakes features, Falls City (Race 10) and Cardinal (Race 11), drew deep fields with multiple graded‑stakes performers including Raging Sea, Royal Spa, Regaled in the Falls City, and a strong turf group led by Awesome Czech, Pin Up Betty, Vive Veuve, Proctor Street, and others in the Cardinal.​

Average win odds and exotic payouts this fall meet have been healthy, with average winners in the 5‑1 range and favorites winning roughly one‑third to 40 percent of the time, supporting a profile that rewards both logical favorites and well‑spotted price horses.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts for Louisville on Thursday, November 27, call for a cool, dry day with abundant sun. Afternoon highs are projected in the low‑ to mid‑50s Fahrenheit with morning temperatures in the 30s, light to moderate northwest winds around 10–12 mph, and essentially no precipitation during racing hours.​

Given the dry pattern and no recent major rain in the immediate lead‑up, expect a fast main track and firm turf, with the turf rail set at 24 feet for Races 7 and 11. The cool temperatures and light breeze should keep the surface tight and consistent through the day, favoring horses comfortable on a typical fast Churchill dirt and a firm but not rock‑hard turf course.​

Track Bias and Post Position Profile

Recent meet‑long and multi‑year data at Churchill Downs indicate several consistent tendencies that are relevant today:

Dirt sprints (up to 7 furlongs) have favored horses racing on or near the lead. During a recent spring meet, approximately half of all dirt sprints were won by horses on or close to the pace, and that general pattern has continued, with tactical speed a key asset. Post‑position data show a pronounced edge for middle draws, particularly post 5, which has accounted for around 22 percent of dirt sprint winners in some samples.​

Dirt routes (one mile and longer) tend to be kinder to the inside and middle posts, with posts 1–3 performing well and posts 3–5 particularly productive. Stalking and pressing types have done best, while deep closers have had a tougher time sustaining long rallies, especially at the flat mile.​

On the turf, recent at‑a‑glance summaries and handicapping reports describe the course as relatively fair but a bit tilted toward tactical speed and mid‑pack runners rather than deep closers, especially with the rail out at 24 feet. Inside and middle posts have been slightly preferred in routes, but there is no extreme post bias.​

Overall, project a modest advantage to horses with tactical speed and middle posts on dirt, and to tactical or mid‑pack horses on the turf. Deep closers will need honest pace and clean trips.

Race 1 – Claiming 1 1/16 Miles Dirt (N3L or 3yo)

Claiming 50,000, 1 1/16 miles dirt, three‑year‑olds and upward which have never won three races or three‑year‑olds.​

Post Time

11:30 a.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This route does not feature a single obvious runoff, but several runners have enough positional speed to ensure an honest tempo. Malibu Springs and Barricade have shown the ability to be forward in prior starts, and Right On Right On typically races on or near the pace for a barn that tends to keep horses involved early. Winters Lion and Cool Andy have more stalking tendencies, sitting just off the pace before grinding into contention, while Yellow Brick often settles mid‑pack and tries to finish. With multiple pace‑capable runners and no need for any to send recklessly, expect a solid but controlled pace, favoring strong stalkers and pressers rather than one‑run closers.​

The inside draw and Churchill route profile should help Winters Lion save ground into the first turn, while Right On Right On and Malibu Springs figure to secure forward, outside‑pressing trips.​

Key Contenders

Winters Lion (post 1) has a long, consistent body of work at and around this level, including competitive efforts in open allowance and optional claiming company. His recent Indianapolis and Remington Park route efforts show steady late energy and Beyer‑type figures in the low‑to‑mid‑80s that fit this group well, and he now drops into a claiming spot where he fits on both class and experience. Multiple handicappers make him the top choice or a strong win candidate, and he is also singled out as a spot play by at least one public handicapper. The rail is an asset given the two‑turn configuration and his tactical style.​

Right On Right On (post 6) has upside as a three‑year‑old colt from a high‑percentage barn. He owns competitive speed figures for this level and has been well‑bet in recent starts. Several quantitative selections rank him highly or on top based on current form and projections. With Irad Ortiz Jr. and a projected forward trip just off the inside speed, he is a key pace player and win threat.​

Cool Andy (post 3) comes in for a trainer who has strong Churchill statistics and generally places horses aggressively. Algorithmic selectors and another group of handicappers rank him near the top of the field, suggesting he is expected to move forward in this softer N3L claiming spot. His style as a stalker from an inside‑middle draw fits the dirt‑route bias.​

Yellow Brick (post 7) is an older horse with back class and enough tactical speed to stay in contact. Several handicappers list him as a main underneath player, and he projects as the outside stalking trip that could get first run if the inner pace horses tire slightly.​

Secondary Choices

Malibu Springs (post 4) has competitive numbers at similar trips and has often been involved early without always finishing. He adds depth to the pace and is a logical underneath inclusion for exactas and trifectas, especially given the productive post group in Churchill routes.​

Barricade (post 5) is lightly raced with upside as a three‑year‑old and owns a forward running style that could be dangerous if he is able to clear or sit just off the top tier. Handicappers rate him as a secondary but usable option in multi‑race wagers.​

Longshots

Fountain Run (post 2) has some prior stakes and starter‑allowance experience and could improve with a ground‑saving trip. However, his recent form has been mixed, and he may be more interesting underneath at a price than as a win candidate.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Winters Lion figures to be a fair win bet if his price drifts above the low single‑digit range implied by several morning‑line projections. Right On Right On and Cool Andy are logical backups.

For verticals, consider keying Winters Lion and Right On Right On in exactas with Cool Andy, Yellow Brick, Malibu Springs, and Barricade. In trifectas, lean on 1 and 6 in the top two slots, with 3 and 7 as the primary third‑place fillers.

In multi‑race wagers, this is a good spot to lean on Winters Lion as an A‑type, with Right On Right On and Cool Andy as supporting coverage.

Selections

Win: Winters Lion

Place: Right On Right On

Show: Cool Andy

Race 2 – Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt (N2L)

Claiming 80,000, 6 furlongs dirt, three‑year‑olds and upward which have never won two races.​

Post Time

11:58 a.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

Several runners bring genuine sprint speed, and the addition of blinkers on Map to the Stars and Risk It signals further intent. Sinister Smile, Evan On Earth, Risk It, and Map to the Stars all have shown early zip, and pace models project a fast to very fast opening quarter. That setup should give an edge to the sharpest speed and pace‑stalking types, while making it more challenging for deep closers to get into the race.​

Outside posts have been productive in Churchill dirt sprints, particularly post 5 and the middle lanes, but this race features the two principal speed threats drawn in the outermost slots, which enhances their chances of working clean trips.​

Key Contenders

Map to the Stars (post 8) is widely viewed by handicappers as the horse to beat. He drops into a claiming event after facing allowance company, adds blinkers, and draws an ideal outside post that allows his rider to see the pace inside and press or pounce as needed. Multiple analysts have him as a clear top pick, often singled or strongly leaned on in multi‑race tickets.​

Risk It (post 7) has back class and solid speed figures, coupled with the blinkers‑on move and a strong barn. He has had prior veterinary‑related scratches for illness earlier in the meet, but his return here off a freshening at a similar class level suggests connections are ready to take a shot.[Scratch Watch in card] Several algorithms and human handicappers project him as a main challenger to his outside neighbor, especially if the pair clear away from the inner group.​

Evan On Earth (post 2) exits allowance company and has tactical speed, but draws inside of multiple speed types. Some quantitative projections place him as a strong contender, but the inner draw in a race with outside speed could force him into chasing along the rail. He remains a key win and exacta candidate but may need to work harder for position.​

Sinister Smile (post 1) is another pace factor from the rail. His connections are in good form at the meet, and some handicappers list him as a primary underneath player and occasional upset threat if he breaks sharply and uses the rail advantage.​

Secondary Choices

Goldbrick (post 6) is not as fast early as the top quartet but could get a perfect tracking trip behind the outer speed pair and inside rivals. Handicappers rate him as an underneath inclusion and spread horse in deeper multi‑race sequences.​

Fielding (post 4) returns from prior illness‑related scratches and has less obvious current form but did show some ability in New York starter company. He is a fringe player with some minor exotics appeal at a price.

Longshots

Michael’s Cove (post 3) and All About Croge (post 5) lack the speed and numbers of the top group but could clunk up for a minor share if the pace collapses more than expected.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Map to the Stars is a logical single or primary key in most structures. A win bet is still reasonable if the price stays near or above the likely short morning line, but the better opportunity may lie in verticals.

Consider exactas keying 8 over 7, 2, 1, and 6. For a saver, reverse a small exacta 7 over 8 and 2. Trifectas can lean heavily on 8 and 7 in the top two spots, using 2, 1, and 6 for third.

In the early Pick 5 and early Pick 4, Map to the Stars is a strong A; Risk It and Evan On Earth function as Bs for redundancy.

Selections

Win: Map to the Stars

Place: Risk It

Show: Evan On Earth

Race 3 – Starter Allowance 6 Furlongs Dirt

Starter allowance, 6 furlongs dirt, for horses that have started for 50,000 or less and are non‑winners of a race other than the specified conditions.​

Post Time

12:26 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This race features several capable sprinters with tactical speed rather than pure need‑the‑lead types. Turn Up the Trees, Uncle William, Secured Lender, and Pair of Socks all have shown the ability to race within a length or two of the early lead and finish. The absence of an extreme front‑runner points toward a controlled, tactical sprint where position into the turn and turn‑of‑foot at the quarter pole will matter more than raw early speed.​

Given Churchill’s bias toward on‑ or near‑the‑pace runners in sprints, the best‑drawn tactical speeds should have an edge.​

Key Contenders

Turn Up the Trees (post 2) is a multiple‑winner with strong recent numbers and fits this starter level nicely. He is coming off a subpar Keeneland effort but has back races that tower over many here, and several handicappers expect him to rebound at a track where his connections do well. His inside‑middle post allows him to track the pace and attack exiting the far turn.​

Secured Lender (post 4) ships in for a high‑percentage barn that excels with this kind of horse, and he owns consistent figures and solid finishing power. A number of algorithms and public handicappers rank him co‑top or second choice, and his mid‑gate draw is aligned with the meet’s middle‑post strength in sprints.​

Uncle William (post 3) is a hard‑knocking older gelding from the same barn as Turn Up the Trees. He often sits just off the leaders and grinds away late. Several selections have him as a top‑three player and a major exacta factor.​

Pair of Socks (post 1) is a three‑year‑old with upside from a sharp outfit. He will need a clean break from the rail but projects to get a ground‑saving trip and has enough tactical speed to avoid being shuffled back.​

Secondary Choices

Good Mojo (post 7) offers some upside with a stalking style from an outside draw, and at least one public handicapper includes him in the main contender group. Vdaytothetenacious (post 8) rounds out the field as a capable closer type, but may find the bias and pace scenario against him if the leaders are not pressed hard.​

Longshots

Just Deal (post 5) and Attersee (post 6) look a notch below on overall numbers but could slip into the trifecta if any of the main four falter late.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race shapes up around the quartet of 2, 4, 3, and 1. From a betting perspective, the question is price separation. If Secured Lender drifts higher than Turn Up the Trees and Uncle William, he may offer the best win value.

Exactas can lean on 2 and 4 over 3 and 1, with a small saver including 3 and 1 on top of 2 and 4. Trifectas focusing on 2, 4, 3 in the top three slots, with 1 and 7 as fourth‑choice depth, are logical.

In the early multi‑race wagers, using 2 and 4 as primary, with 3 and 1 as backups, should provide solid coverage without excessive spread.

Selections

Win: Secured Lender

Place: Turn Up the Trees

Show: Uncle William

Race 4 – Allowance Optional Claiming 1 Mile Dirt (3yo Fillies)

Allowance optional claiming 125,000, 1 mile dirt, three‑year‑old fillies with various N2X/N3L conditions.​

Post Time

12:54 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This is a compact seven‑filly field with a blend of pace types. Quantum Burst and Amarth have shown enough early foot to sit on or near the lead, while Sweet Seraphine and Decadent are more likely to stalk and make runs on the far turn. Flash Wear and Jenkin add some mid‑pack presence; Fede can sit close if asked.​

With a short field and no suicidal speed, expect a moderate, honest pace that rewards tactical fillies capable of settling just behind the leaders and accelerating when asked. The Churchill dirt‑route profile again favors these stalking types from inside and middle posts.​

Key Contenders

Quantum Burst (post 5) has been a popular selection among handicappers, frequently rated the top choice based on her combination of speed, consistency, and class for this N2X level. She is one of two Kenneally fillies in here and should be forwardly placed from a favorable middle draw, giving her first run on the turn.​

Decadent (post 7) returns to dirt and cuts back slightly after facing tougher company. Track handicappers list her as the likely swooping closer, and she should benefit if the pace is just a bit warmer than expected. Her recent figures fit well, and her trainer is capable of moving horses up in this kind of spot.​

Sweet Seraphine (post 1) has run well at Churchill and has strong overall numbers for this condition. The rail draw is beneficial at a mile if she can secure a stalking trip rather than being pinned on the lead or shuffled back. Several public handicappers have her in their top three.​

Amarth (post 4) is the other Kenneally runner and displays versatile speed, able to either make the lead or sit right behind it. She shows up prominently in multiple selection grids and appears to be well‑meant as a co‑feature of the entry‑type barn presence.​

Secondary Choices

Fede (post 2) steps up while being eligible for the claim tag and has enough ability to factor if she handles this level; she appears on some secondary contender lists. Flash Wear (post 3) and Jenkin (post 6) round out the field as mid‑pack types with chances to slip into the exotics at square prices.

Longshots

None of the seven are tosses, but Flash Wear and Jenkin appear a half‑step slower than the main four on paper and will need improvement or pace help.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Quantum Burst and Decadent are the primary win candidates. If the odds stay relatively close, Quantum Burst may offer a slightly better combination of risk and reward due to her tactical positional edge.

Exactas can focus on 5 and 7 over 1 and 4, with a small saver 1 and 4 over 5 and 7. Trifectas that box 5, 7, 1, and 4 in small denominations can capture reasonable payouts without heavy outlay in a short field.

In the early Pick 5 and mid‑card sequences, most players can lean on 5 and 7 as main coverage with 1 and 4 as B‑level backups.

Selections

Win: Quantum Burst

Place: Decadent

Show: Sweet Seraphine

Race 5 – Claiming 7 Furlongs Dirt (N2L Fillies and Mares)

Claiming 30,000, 7 furlongs dirt, fillies and mares three‑year‑olds and upward which have never won two races.​

Post Time

1:22 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

Seven furlongs at Churchill can magnify pace and stamina concerns. Give Her Another, Toasted Roll, Tempers Fly, and Bamtwentyklater all have some early speed, with Give Her Another and Tempers Fly in particular offering pace pressure from favorable outer and mid‑posts. Saint Nancy S may also be asked to show more early foot after her prior efforts.​

With multiple pace‑inclined runners, expect a solid early tempo that could set the race up for a stalker who can sit just off the leaders and finish strongly. The middle posts and stalking styles have done well in extended sprints here.​

Key Contenders

Give Her Another (post 4) has been consistently ranked among the top choices by several handicappers and algorithms, often as the preferred win candidate. She brings good recent form, a strong barn, and tactical speed from a mid‑gate draw. The blinkers‑on move in her last start and the outside‑middle post position make her a major threat to control or press the pace and kick clear.​

Toasted Roll (post 5) drops to this claiming level and has a turf‑to‑dirt foundation that many handicappers appreciate in this spot. She figures to sit a stalking trip behind the inside speed and has been tabbed as the top choice by the on‑track analyst. Her connections are live at the meet, and her prior figures fit.​

Tempers Fly (post 9) offers good speed from the outside and has been rated a key win contender by multiple public handicappers and models. The outside speed draw is powerful at this distance, and if she breaks sharply, she could either clear or sit just off Give Her Another and Toasted Roll.​

Secondary Choices

Sea Lion (post 1) is an inside filly with some pace and local connections. She appears as a value‑type underneath option on some sheets and can improve second or third off the layoff. Bamtwentyklater (post 7) is a lightly raced filly from a strong barn and is considered by some handicappers as an exotics player with upside.​

Misty Muppet (post 3) drops from prior conditions but has had illness scratches noted earlier and may need this start, though she has back races that could fit at her best.[Scratch Watch section]

Saint Nancy S (post 6) is another possible pace presence but must step up her figures considerably to threaten for the win.

Longshots

Ahamo (post 8) is the main longer‑priced filly of interest, capable of picking up pieces late if the pace melts down more severely than expected. She projects primarily as a trifecta and superfecta candidate.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race sets up nicely for a spread approach in exotics but with clear emphasis on Give Her Another, Toasted Roll, and Tempers Fly.

A straightforward strategy is to key 4 and 5 in exactas over 9, 1, and 7, and then reverse 9 over 4 and 5 for a smaller amount. Trifecta structures can use 4, 5, and 9 in the top two slots with 1, 7, 3, and 8 underneath.

In multi‑race sequences, treat 4 and 5 as primary, with 9 and 1 as secondary coverage.

Selections

Win: Give Her Another

Place: Toasted Roll

Show: Tempers Fly

Race 6 – Claiming 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt (Open)

Claiming 20,000, 6 1/2 furlongs dirt, three‑year‑olds and upward.​

Post Time

1:50 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This is a large field with multiple hard‑knocking sprinters, and the pace should be lively. Lightning Struck, Proprietary Trade, Show Time, Balsa, Midnight Pranks, Top Gun Tommy, Swaggish, Kunshan Bridge, and Guanare all have various degrees of early speed. That creates the potential for a contentious first half‑mile, particularly given the number of middle and outer posts with speed.​

Churchill’s sprint bias still favors tactical speed, but with this many pace types, there is room for a mid‑pack or stalking closer type to capitalize if the leaders overdo it.

Key Contenders

Show Time (post 4) is in fine form, coming off a win and returning at a comparable level. On‑track handicappers list him as the top pick, and multiple other analysts agree he is among the strongest win candidates based on current form and connections. From post 4, he should secure a good pressing or sitting position and have every chance to repeat.​

Proprietary Trade (post 2) is another key player, with strong recent figures and solid trainer statistics at Churchill. Quantitative models and public handicappers alike rank him as a top‑two contender, often alongside Show Time. His inside‑middle draw should allow him to sit an efficient trip behind the early scramble.​

Top Gun Tommy (post 11) brings back‑class speed and has been well‑supported in earlier meet races. Several handicappers list him prominently in their top three and consider him a main threat from off the pace. His outside draw and experienced rider make him a strong late‑running or stalking presence.​

Secondary Choices

Lightning Struck (post 1) and Midnight Pranks (post 7) are both pace‑involved veterans who could stick around for pieces. Market‑driven and algorithmic selections place them in the second tier of contenders, suitable for inclusion in deeper verticals and as minor insurance in multi‑race wagers.​

Balsa (post 6), Swaggish (post 13 if in), and Guanare (post 16 if in) are also usable as price horses with enough tactical speed to hang around and possibly pick up smaller shares.

Longshots

Outlier (post 9) and J J’s Joker (post 12) have races that fit but appear slightly below the main contenders on paper. They are more appealing as third‑ or fourth‑slot trifecta and superfecta fillers.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a good race to key Show Time and Proprietary Trade while spreading underneath. Consider win bets only if one of the top pair offers clear value.

Exactas could key 4 and 2 over 11, 1, and 7, with small reverse tickets 11 over 4 and 2. Trifectas focusing on 4, 2, and 11 in the top two slots with a wide array underneath (1, 7, 6, 13, 16, 9, 12) can provide coverage in a chaotic field.

In multi‑race sequences, 4 and 2 are primary A‑level horses, with 11 as a strong B, and 1 and 7 as C‑level coverage if budget permits.

Selections

Win: Show Time

Place: Proprietary Trade

Show: Top Gun Tommy

Race 7 – Allowance 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf

Allowance, 5 1/2 furlongs turf, older horses that have not won a graded turf stake in 2024–2025.​

Post Time

2:18 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This turf sprint is loaded with quality and pace. Champlin, Operation Sunrise, Double Clutch, and Nothing Better all possess early or pace‑pressing ability, while American Monarch and Heart Headed bring tactical speed, and Dhabab and Henro are more comfortable closing. Pace figures from one analytics source show Champlin as a fast stalker, Double Clutch as a pace‑pressing type, Operation Sunrise and Nothing Better as leaders, and Dhabab as the fastest closer.​

With multiple proven front‑end types, the early fractions should be sharp. The 24‑foot rail can make it slightly tougher to close from far back, but a strong duel could still bring a mid‑pack stalker or strong closer into play late.​

Key Contenders

Joe Shiesty (post 2) has been strongly favored by several handicappers and algorithms, which rank him above this allowance group based on recent figures and win percentages. He has enough tactical speed to sit in the first flight behind the main burners and a strong late kick to take advantage if the leaders battle too hard. His trainer has been quietly effective at the meet.​

Nothing Better (post 9) is a high‑class turf sprinter with multiple stakes‑quality races. Statistical profiles show an excellent win and in‑the‑money record at similar distances, and some quantitative handicapping strongly respects his chances even from an outer post. With Irad Ortiz Jr. and a tactical style that can press or stalk, he is a key player.​

Dhabab (post 8) brings serious late punch as one of the fastest closers in the field, according to pace analytics. He has been competitive at strong turf sprint meets and can benefit if the early fractions get hot. Several handicappers rate him as a strong win and exacta candidate at an expected mid‑range price.​

Champlin (post 3) is a mid‑priced horse with tactical speed and solid connections. Pace models label him as a fast stalker who can sit just off the top tier and strike turning for home. A few handicappers use him prominently on tickets, and his draw is ideal for that running style.​

Secondary Choices

Operation Sunrise (post 5) returns after prior scratches and owns strong turf sprint form, including solid efforts at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland. He may be on the lead or pressing and could be dangerous if he shakes loose.​

American Monarch (post 1) and Heart Headed (post 4) are tactical types who can save ground and could sneak into the exacta or trifecta if the race collapses late or if the outer speeds lose position.

Double Clutch (post 7) and Henro (post 10) are capable on their day but may prefer slightly different setups or distances; they still merit inclusion in deeper trifectas.

Longshots

Mischievous Rogue (post 6) is a classy veteran who might outrun his odds if he gets a good stalking trip, but most projections have him a bit below the top tier in this field.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a good betting race with potential for value beyond the top two. Joe Shiesty is a logical key, but Dhabab and Champlin may offer more attractive prices.

Consider win bets on whichever of Joe Shiesty, Dhabab, or Champlin offers the best combination of odds and perceived chance. Exactas can focus on 2, 9, and 8 over 3, 5, 1, and 4. Trifectas using 2, 9, 8, and 3 in the top three slots and spreading slightly in fourth can capture solid payouts.

In horizontal wagers, use 2 and 9 as primary, with 8 and 3 as strong backups. Price‑hunters may even treat 8 as a co‑A.

Selections

Win: Joe Shiesty

Place: Dhabab

Show: Champlin

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight 1 Mile Dirt (Fillies and Mares)

Maiden special weight, 1 mile dirt, three‑year‑old and up fillies and mares.​

Post Time

2:47 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

Maiden routes with several lightly raced and well‑bred fillies are often tricky to read, but pace models suggest that Glamorama and La Fantastica have the potential to show the most early speed, while Delicious Diva, Just Jules, and Aeolian possess tactical stalking styles. Champagne Nights can sit mid‑pack to deep, and Episist is another stalker.​

Given the profile of the field, anticipate a moderate pace, with two or three forward fillies and a pack of stalkers tracking within a couple of lengths. The Churchill mile favors those who can secure position into the first turn rather than deep closers.

Key Contenders

Aeolian (post 1) is widely regarded as the most likely winner by several handicapping sources, including algorithmic models and public analysts. She is trained by a top barn with strong statistics at Churchill and comes off promising efforts at Saratoga and Keeneland, with a stalking style that fits this setup. The rail draw is fine if she breaks cleanly.​

Delicious Diva (post 2) is another strong contender, with numbers and connections suggesting she is ready for a top effort. She has shown ability to sit close and finish and appears as a top‑three choice on multiple sheets. Her trainer has good success developing route fillies.​

Just Jules (post 4) brings a strong rider and a capable trainer, and her relatively higher Prime Power‑type rating on the in‑today sheet speaks to her overall quality in this context. Several handicappers include her in their main contender group, especially in multi‑race wagers.​

Glamorama (post 6) is lightly raced with a forward style and appears prominently in some models as a top‑four finisher, offering potential value if she improves in her second or third route attempt.​

Secondary Choices

La Fantastica (post 7) has numerous board finishes and may be somewhat exposed as a perennial maiden, but her speed and class make her a must‑use in verticals and horizontals. Champagne Nights (post 8) and Episist (post 9) can both make late runs into the exotics if the pace is slightly stronger than expected or if the favorites underperform.​

Rockaway Reef (post 11) is an older maiden with many chances, but her stamina and experience could still help her earn a minor award if the race falls apart late.

Longshots

Lilium (post 3), Theravada (post 10), and Clairita (post 5, if in) require substantial improvement and project as deeper longshots, more viable on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race is a logical spot to lean on the inside favorites in horizontals but to seek value in verticals if one of the newer faces offers a decent price.

Win bets could center on Aeolian if she does not get overly pounded; otherwise, consider a split stake between Aeolian and Delicious Diva or Aeolian and Just Jules, depending on tote action.

Exactas can key 1 and 2 over 4, 6, and 7, with a backup 4 and 6 over 1 and 2. Trifectas using 1, 2, 4, and 6 in the top three positions, with 7, 8, and 9 underneath, provide broader coverage.

In the late Pick 5 and Pick 4, most players will use 1 and 2 as A‑level, with 4 and 6 as B‑level support.

Selections

Win: Aeolian

Place: Delicious Diva

Show: Just Jules

Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt (Fillies and Mares)

Allowance optional claiming 100,000, 6 furlongs dirt, fillies and mares three‑year‑olds and up with high‑end N3X‑type conditions.​

Post Time

3:16 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This is a salty sprint with multiple pace and pace‑pressing types. Grand Job, Pistol, Metaphysical, Ellen Jay, Tapit Quick, and Anakarina all possess varying degrees of early speed, while Marmalade Skye and Verity can track just off the pace. That blend points to a brisk opening quarter and half, with the advantage likely going to a filly that can sit just off the duel and finish.​

The Churchill bias toward on‑or‑near‑the‑pace runners still applies, but the number of speed horses suggests that a strong stalker may find ideal conditions.

Key Contenders

Ellen Jay (post 4) owns the highest recent numbers in the field and comes from a powerhouse barn that has been excellent at the meet. She was stakes‑caliber enough to be entered in graded company previously and is now in a slightly softer allowance/optional spot. Several handicappers and quantitative models treat her as an A‑type win candidate.​

Grand Job (post 1) is another strong filly from a top stable, with solid recent form and good inside speed. She appears as the top selection on some sheets and as a close second choice on others. Her rail draw can be an asset if she breaks sharply and avoids getting trapped behind tiring pace.​

Verity (post 9) is a lightly raced three‑year‑old from a highly respected barn, with strong efforts in her limited career. Models and analysts consistently place her among the top three, and the outside draw gives her a clean stalking trip.​

Marmalade Skye (post 8) is an older mare dropping back into this spot after being entered in a prior stakes. She brings experience and tactical speed and has been appearing regularly in handicappers’ top‑four lists.​

Secondary Choices

Metaphysical (post 3) is an older mare who can finish well when the pace is hot and merits respect in exactas and trifectas. Tapit Quick (post 6) and Anakarina (post 7) are both from a capable barn and could improve off recent efforts.

Pistol (post 2) has decent numbers but may find this group a bit deep; she does, however, have some appeal as a longshot pace factor.

Longshots

Bow Draw (post 5) is a true longshot with limited recent form. Her best role appears to be as a superfecta filler if she picks up tired horses late.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Structurally, Ellen Jay and Grand Job are co‑keys. If either drifts above the likely short morning‑line range, a win bet is justified. Verity is the main alternative who could offer a better price with comparable upside.

Exactas: key 4 and 1 over 9, 8, and 3, with saver tickets 9 over 4 and 1. Trifectas can use 4, 1, and 9 in the top two slots, with 8, 3, 6, and 7 underneath.

In late multi‑race bets, 4, 1, and 9 are A‑level, with 8 and 3 as Bs.

Selections

Win: Ellen Jay

Place: Grand Job

Show: Verity

Race 10 – Falls City Stakes (Grade 3) 1 1/8 Miles Dirt

Grade 3 Falls City, 400,000, 1 1/8 miles dirt, fillies and mares three‑year‑olds and upward.​

Post Time

3:45 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This is a deep, classy field with several pace elements:

Chilled from the rail has enough early speed to use the inside and ensure a good position. Quietside stretching out from seven furlongs and Standoutsensation exiting a stakes sprint also project to be more forward, while Alpine Princess and Royal Spa can sit just off the front trio. Neon Icon may attend the pace if asked, though she is more often a stalker. Raging Sea typically sits mid‑pack with a sustained run, and Regaled also brings a stalking style after competing in longer races, including the Breeders’ Cup Distaff.​​

Analysts who have dissected this race expect a contested but not suicidal early tempo, with Chilled, Quietside, and Standoutsensation vying for position and the likes of Alpine Princess and Royal Spa perched just behind. That scenario should favor top‑class stalkers capable of staying in touch and kicking through the lane.​​

Key Contenders

Royal Spa (post 7) is a Churchill specialist, 4‑2‑0 in eight starts beneath the Twin Spires, with wins in the Grade 2 Locust Grove and the Grade 3 Shawnee earlier this year. She loves two turns here and retains Tyler Gaffalione. Several handicappers make her the preferred win candidate, citing her track affinity and consistent mid‑90s class‑level figures.​

Raging Sea (post 2) is the elite class mare in the race, a multiple Grade 1 winner with victories in the Personal Ensign and strong efforts in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and La Troienne. She returns from a layoff since her spring Grade 1 win at Churchill, and many analysts note that if she fires close to her best, she can simply out‑class this field. Others are cautious because of the layoff and question whether this is a full‑prep or a tighter campaign target.​

Regaled (post 10) has been on a sharp upward curve this season, culminating in a third‑place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and a string of career‑best performances. She has improved significantly since moving to her current connections and has tactical speed to complement her staying ability. Some handicappers regard her as the most reliable late‑season mare in this group.​

Alpine Princess (post 4) has quietly developed into a serious two‑turn mare for a top local barn, with multiple graded‑stakes quality figures and a versatile style. Several algorithmic and human handicappers rate her as a top‑four contender with legitimate upset potential.​

Standoutsensation (post 8) exits a strong stakes effort in New York and brings tactical speed and finishing power, albeit against a slightly different profile of competition. She is frequently cited as a live longer‑priced play in the exotics.​​

Secondary Choices

Chilled (post 1) should get a ground‑saving trip and could be part of the exacta if she holds while the classier mares sit behind her. Quietside (post 5) is a rising three‑year‑old filly whose stretch‑out and forward style have intrigued some analysts, though most see her as just a notch below the top flight.​​

Neon Icon (post 6), In Just My Heels (post 3), and Corningstone (post 9) all have some ability but appear as secondary or fringe players against this level of opposition.

Longshots

Regaled and Standoutsensation are not true longshots but could be overlays compared to the star power of Raging Sea and local record of Royal Spa, depending on how the public bets. The true longer prices like In Just My Heels and Corningstone would need significant improvement or a complete pace meltdown.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a high‑quality race with multiple legitimate win candidates, which should create some value spreads on the tote. Royal Spa offers a compelling blend of track affinity, recent form, and draw, and may be the most appealing win bet if she is not hammered below her likely morning‑line price.​

Raging Sea is a must‑use in horizontals but might be an underlay in the win pool given the layoff questions. Regaled is an excellent alternative win candidate, especially if she offers higher odds than the big names.​

Consider exactas keying 7 and 10 over 2, 4, and 8, with save tickets 2 over 7 and 10. Trifectas could use 7, 2, 10, and 4 in the top three positions, sprinkling in 8 and 1 for depth.

In late Pick 4 and Pick 5 play, most serious tickets will treat 7, 2, and 10 as A‑level, with 4 and 8 as backups.

Selections

Win: Royal Spa

Place: Regaled

Show: Raging Sea

Race 11 – Cardinal Stakes (Listed) 1 1/8 Miles Turf

Cardinal Stakes, 300,000 listed, 1 1/8 miles turf, fillies and mares three‑year‑olds and upward, rail at 24 feet.​

Post Time

4:14 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

This large field features a balanced blend of speeds and closers. Awesome Czech, Stylish Sue, Pin Up Betty, and Vive Veuve can be on or near the lead, while Miwa, Lucky Speech, Weighted Average, Fleetingly, She’s Lookin Lucky, Proctor Street, Adrasteia, Duvet Day, and Sabalenka are generally mid‑pack or closing types.​

The turf configuration at 1 1/8 miles with the rail out tends to favor tactical runners who can secure mid‑pack or stalking trips, avoiding being too far back. With multiple forward‑style mares signed on, anticipate an honest pace, potentially tilting the advantage slightly to those who can sit just behind the first rank and finish.​

Key Contenders

Awesome Czech (post 4) has been labeled a key price player by track handicappers, who see her as a gutsy New York‑bred with a projected ideal trip in this setup. She has shown the ability to attend or press the pace and still finish, which is an ideal profile for this race.​

Proctor Street (post 11) has done little wrong in her turf campaign and comes from a strong local barn that spots her aggressively. Multiple handicappers and models rank her near the top of the field and see her as one of the primary win and exacta candidates.​

Pin Up Betty (post 8) is a high‑rated turf mare from a top turf barn and has posted multiple triple‑digit‑type turf figures at longer routes. Her tactical speed and strong finishing ability make her a logical major player; some analysts consider her the most talented closer in the field.​

Vive Veuve (post 9) is another sharp mare from a hot barn, with strong recent form at intermediate turf routes. She typically races just off the pace and has the right trip profile for the rail‑out configuration.​

Miwa (post 2) is a lightly raced European import who has quickly adapted to U.S. conditions. Quantitative selections and some handicappers rate her as a live contender, especially given her inside draw and tactical style.​

She’s Lookin Lucky (post 6) is a tough mare who can sit mid‑pack and finish and may be slightly overlooked relative to some more fashionable names, yet models respect her overall ability.​

Weighted Average (post 7) and Fleetingly (post 10) represent a powerhouse turf barn and have enough quality and finishing ability to be dangerous, especially if the pace turns more demanding.​

Secondary Choices

Duvet Day (post 1) is a deep closer who can get involved if the pace is stronger than expected. Stylish Sue (post 5) and Lucky Speech (post 3) provide additional pace and mid‑pack depth and are credible exotics players.

Adrasteia (post 12), Sabalenka (post 13 if in), and Tap the Champagne (post 14 if in) can be considered for broader trifecta and superfecta coverage but are drawn wide and may need ideal trips.

Longshots

Sabalenka could be an interesting longer‑priced candidate if she draws in, as she has some back class and may be overlooked, but most projections place her a notch below the main contenders.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Because of the large field, this race offers excellent exotic value. Pin Up Betty, Proctor Street, Awesome Czech, and Vive Veuve form the core group. If any of these drifts above expected odds, they merit serious win consideration.​

Exactas can focus on 8, 11, 4, and 9 over each other and include 2, 6, and 7 underneath. Trifectas can use 8, 11, 4, 9, 2, and 6 in rotating top‑three roles, taking advantage of likely inflated prices on some of these entries.

In horizontals, treat 8, 11, 4, and 9 as primary coverage, with 2, 6, 7, and 10 as backups.

Selections

Win: Pin Up Betty

Place: Proctor Street

Show: Awesome Czech

Race 12 – Allowance 6 Furlongs Dirt (N1X / N2L)

Allowance, 6 furlongs dirt, three‑year‑olds and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter, or which have never won two races.​

Post Time

4:43 p.m. Eastern.

Pace Analysis

Several colts and geldings bring legitimate sprint speed: Thunderhawk, Stiglets, Curlin’s Gesture, Mo Work, Faust, Fort Nelson, El Prestigio, Clampett, and Northern Chill can all be close to the early fractions, while Pursuitneversleeps and B Sudd have tactical stalking styles.​

With this much speed, the early fractions figure to be sharp. Churchill’s sprint bias still helps speed, but a horse that can sit just off the pace and pounce may be in the sweet spot, particularly from a middle gate.​

Key Contenders

Pursuitneversleeps (post 6) has had a couple of tough beats recently and has proven he fits this level at Churchill. Track handicappers and multiple other analysts have made him their top choice, pointing to his proven local form and strong late kick. His stalking style is ideal for this pace scenario.​

El Prestigio (post 9) is a lightly raced colt with upside from a high‑percentage barn and has been prominent in both model‑based and public handicapping rankings. The outside draw, combined with his tactical speed, sets him up for a smooth trip.​

Stiglets (post 3) ships in for a strong sprint barn and carries a solid overall rating, often appearing in the top three across several selections. He should be close to the pace and has finishing ability.​

Northern Chill (post 11) has been strongly rated by at least one major algorithmic source and features in many top‑four lists. His outside‑middle draw allows him to stalk and finish without traffic.​

Secondary Choices

B Sudd (post 1) is a rail‑drawn runner with some mid‑pack style and can grab a share with a good trip. Thunderhawk (post 2) has had some form questions but is fast enough to make the front or sit just off it.

Curlin’s Gesture (post 4), Mo Work (post 5), Faust (post 7), Fort Nelson (post 8), and Clampett (post 10) are all capable of factoring in various pace scenarios and deserve consideration in deeper trifectas or as C‑level horizontals.

Rowdy Riot (post 12) adds further speed from the outside and could add to the early pressure; he appears as an also‑eligible in prior races this meet and is more of an exotic‑type play.

Longshots

X‑factor horses like B Sudd, Thunderhawk, Rowdy Riot, and Clampett are longshots with enough ability to be used underneath but whose win chances appear modest relative to the main quartet.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Pursuitneversleeps is a logical key and a strong win candidate if his price remains fair. El Prestigio and Northern Chill provide additional leverage if they drift above their morning‑line quotes.​

Exactas can structure 6 and 9 on top of 3, 11, 1, and 2. Trifectas might use 6, 9, 3, and 11 heavily, with others sprinkled underneath for coverage.

In the final leg of the late multi‑race bets, 6 and 9 are A‑level, with 3 and 11 as strong Bs, and 1 and 2 as optional Cs.

Selections

Win: Pursuitneversleeps

Place: El Prestigio

Show: Stiglets

Jockey Notes and Insights

The Churchill fall meet has featured deep jockey colonies, and several of today’s riders are among the meet or national leaders. Equibase track statistics and other meet summaries highlight riders such as Tyler Gaffalione, Irad Ortiz Jr., Jose Ortiz, Flavien Prat, Brian Hernandez Jr., and Julien Leparoux as consistently productive in wins and in‑the‑money finishes at Churchill.​

Jose Ortiz and Irad Ortiz Jr. have been battling near the top of the standings and are both booked on multiple live mounts across the card, including Winters Lion, Cool Andy, Grand Job, Pin Up Betty (Jose) and Right On Right On, Fede, Ellen Jay, Verity, Nothing Better, Pursuitneversleeps (Irad). Their presence often signals strong intent from top barns, and they are particularly effective on tactical pace types.​

Tyler Gaffalione has excellent local statistics and rides key horses such as Evan On Earth, Quantum Burst, Give Her Another, Top Gun Tommy, Joe Shiesty, Episist, Royal Spa, Proctor Street, and Northern Chill. His strength in timing rallies and saving ground makes his mounts especially dangerous in two‑turn events and turf races.​

Flavien Prat has a lighter book but high win percentage and is aboard Secured Lender, Operation Sunrise, Just Jules, Raging Sea, and Fleetingly. He is particularly adept at judging pace on both turf and dirt and often finds ideal stalking trips.​

Julien Leparoux, a historically strong Churchill turf and route rider, has been hot recently according to At a Glance reports. He partners with Michael’s Cove, Champagne Nights, Anakarina, and other price horses that can outrun their odds when he works out ground‑saving, patient rides.​

Brian Hernandez Jr. and Corey Lanerie are long‑time Churchill fixtures. Hernandez rides Delicious Diva, Saint Nancy S, Ahumado, and Operation Sunrise in prior outings, while Lanerie handles Dhabab, Vdaytothetenacious, and others. Their familiarity with the course and pace flows is a subtle plus, especially on horses who need well‑timed runs.​

Taken together, today’s card strongly favors paying attention to Ortiz–Brown, Gaffalione–Cox/Brisset/Walsh, Prat–Brown/Mott, and Leparoux–Wilkes combinations. These rider‑trainer relationships have been consistently profitable and reliable at the meet.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Equibase and other statistical summaries show Brad Cox, Joe Sharp, Michael Maker, Kenny McPeek, Steve Asmussen, Brendan Walsh, Bill Mott, and others as leading or high‑percentage trainers at Churchill across recent meets.​

Brad Cox sends out Alpine Princess and Ellen Jay, both major players in their respective races, from a barn that has excellent local stats and particularly strong results in graded stakes and high‑end allowances.​

Chad Brown, one of the national leaders, brings Aeolian and Raging Sea, plus turf runners Weighted Average and Fleetingly in the Cardinal. His horses are typically well‑prepared off layoffs and travel with intent, making Raging Sea and Weighted Average especially dangerous.​

Steve Asmussen has a busy afternoon with Risk It, Lightning Struck, La Fantastica, Episist, Lucky Speech, Faust, and El Prestigio. His runners often show tactical speed and fitness, making his colts and fillies key pace and win factors in sprints and routes alike.​

Michael Maker, another top Churchill trainer, sends out Secured Lender, Proprietary Trade, and Pin Up Betty. He excels with turf and synthetic‑to‑dirt types and with horses rising through starter and allowance ranks, which supports the strong case for Secured Lender and Pin Up Betty.​

Kenny McPeek is represented by Decadent, Saint Nancy S, Delicious Diva, and Corningstone. His runners often improve with distance and experience, and he has a history of scoring with fillies in Churchill stakes and allowance races.​

Rodolphe Brisset and Victoria Oliver, while not as nationally prominent, are dangerous locally. Brisset’s Royal Spa is a Churchill specialist in the Falls City, and Oliver’s Chilled can outrun her odds from the rail.​

Joe Sharp has Sinister Smile, Toasted Roll, Swaggish, Heart Headed, Miwa, Stylish Sue, Vive Veuve, and Sabalenka, and has been doing well at Churchill and in regional circuits. His horses are worth extra consideration, especially in mid‑level stakes and strong allowances.​

Finally, Brendan Walsh’s Give Her Another and Proctor Street are both placed ambitiously but realistically on this card, consistent with his pattern of taking live shots in competitive allowance and stakes spots.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

From a full‑card perspective, the structure of the day suggests anchoring multi‑race tickets in races where the favorites appear legitimate and spreading more in contentious turf or deep allowance events.

In the early sequence, Race 2 (Map to the Stars, Risk It, Evan On Earth) and Race 3 (Turn Up the Trees, Secured Lender, Uncle William) offer relatively clear top tiers. Races 1, 4, and 5 also have logical favorites but are more susceptible to minor upsets, so they merit some backup coverage.​

The middle and late card introduce more complexity with the turf allowance in Race 7, the full maiden in Race 8, and the stacked allowance in Race 9. Races 10 and 11 are high‑class stakes where the public may over‑focus on one or two names, creating opportunities to extract value from second or third choices such as Regaled in the Falls City or Pin Up Betty and Proctor Street in the Cardinal.​

Several potential value plays stand out:

Royal Spa in the Falls City should offer a fair price relative to her dominant Churchill record and consistent graded‑stakes form.​

Regaled is a legitimate alternative to Raging Sea, with current form and a potentially more favorable price despite her Breeders’ Cup Distaff placing.​

Pin Up Betty and Proctor Street in the Cardinal both have the profiles of horses that can capitalize on a fair or slightly honest pace at 1 1/8 miles, and they may be underbet relative to higher‑profile turf mares.​

Dhabab in Race 7 appears poised to take advantage of a hot turf‑sprint pace as a high‑quality closer at a mid‑range price.​

In the closing dirt allowance, Pursuitneversleeps and Northern Chill are well‑positioned to benefit from the cavalry charge of speed and may offer good win and exacta value if bettors overemphasize raw early foot.​

Across the card, a disciplined approach would use these themes:

Favor tactical speed and middle posts on dirt, especially in sprints, but be willing to back strong stalkers in races with abundant pace.

On turf, emphasize tactical and mid‑pack types who can avoid traffic and take advantage of moderate‑to‑honest fractions, especially at nine furlongs with the rail out.

Lean into proven Churchill specialists and strong rider‑trainer combinations in key stakes and high‑class allowances.

Combine that bias awareness with the consensus key contenders and secondary choices above to build structured win bets, exactas, and multi‑race tickets that maximize value while respecting the most likely winners.