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Thursday, September 4, 2025 sees Colonial Downs hosting another competitive card at its celebrated New Kent venue, noted for both turf and dirt racing. Today’s schedule follows the track’s boutique meet structure, with racing offered on Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday, typically beginning at 12:30 PM local time. The fall stakes centerpiece, the Old Dominion Derby, takes place this Saturday, setting the stage for a strong lead-up in today’s races.
Weather and Track Condition
The weather today is sunny, with temperatures starting at 67°F, humidity at 81%, and light winds from the SSE. Local forecasts predict breezy conditions in the afternoon. There is no precipitation expected, visibility is excellent, and pressure is steady at 30 inches. The Secretariat Turf Course should be running firm while the dirt track is rated fast, consistent with the previous day’s conditions. These ideal surfaces favor horses with tactical speed and mid-pace runners who enjoy a fair track.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Today’s Colonial Downs card includes maiden and claiming events, several allowance races, and the build-up to weekend stakes. Detailed analysis for each race follows, focusing on key contenders, secondary choices, longshots, pace, angles, and wagering opinions drawn from official entries and recent form.
Race 3 Detailed Analysis – Colonial Downs $70,000 Maiden Special Weight
This $70,000 Maiden Special Weight contest over five furlongs on the turf attracts a competitive field of nine three-year-olds and up seeking their first victory. The generous purse structure ($44,100 to the winner) reflects the quality expected in this maiden special weight company, with several horses showing promising recent form at Colonial Downs and other quality venues.
Key Contenders Analysis
Virtuosity (17-10 favorite) – The morning line choice enters off a strong runner-up effort last month, finishing second by three-quarters of a length to Cash The Money in a maiden race at Colonial Downs over this same five-furlong turf distance. That performance showed tactical speed and gameness, with the race notes indicating he raced on the inside, angled for racing room, worked between horses, and proved game to the wire. His familiarity with Colonial’s turf course and proven ability at the distance make him the logical favorite.
Serendipitymonday (2-1) and Manseeyasway (2-1) – These co-second choices bring contrasting styles and recent form. Serendipitymonday finished fourth by four lengths in his last Colonial Downs start over five furlongs on turf in July, with race notes showing he raced inside before weakening in the final eighth. However, his connections clearly believe in improvement potential. Manseeyasway arrives from Delaware Park, where he finished a strong second by one length over five furlongs on the fast dirt track in July, showing late improvement. His versatility between surfaces could prove advantageous.
Rebel With A Clue (12-5) – This Irish-bred import brings international experience and finished third by three lengths at Gulfstream Park in December over five furlongs. The race notes show he dueled for two furlongs wide before holding third, demonstrating early speed and stamina. His connections have given him time off since that effort, suggesting preparation for this opportunity.
Secondary Choices Analysis
Notion In Motion (13-2) – Finished third by 1½ lengths to Cash The Money (the same horse that defeated Virtuosity) in August at Colonial Downs over five furlongs on turf. The race notes indicate he raced four to five wide, ranged up prominently, but flattened in the final stages. His connection to the same form line as the favorite provides confidence in his competitiveness.
Danner (18-5) – This gelding steps back to five furlongs after struggling at one mile in his last Colonial Downs start in July. The distance cutback could unlock improvement, particularly for a horse trained by connections familiar with Colonial’s characteristics.
Longshot Analysis
Sam The Sham (22-1) – The longest price on the board finished fifth by 5¾ lengths behind Cash The Money in August at Colonial Downs. The race notes reveal he stepped slow, raced inside, and was checked at the 3½-furlong pole, suggesting the poor showing may not reflect his true ability. American Pharoah colts often improve with experience, and the significant price offers value for exotic play.
Military Cruiser (16-1) – Ships in from Ellis Park where he finished third by 3¼ lengths over five furlongs on good ground in August. The race notes show he stepped slow but chased throughout, indicating determination. The surface switch from dirt to turf represents an unknown, but his breeding suggests turf capability.
Free Costs To Much – This Imagining gelding represents a first-time starter with minimal public information available, making him difficult to evaluate but potentially offering surprise value if well-prepared.
Pace Analysis
The five-furlong turf sprint distance typically produces honest early pace, particularly with multiple horses showing early speed tendencies. Virtuosity has demonstrated tactical speed and rating ability, while Rebel With A Clue brings proven early pace from his Gulfstream effort. Serendipitymonday’s inside tactics could prove effective if he can secure a ground-saving trip. The pace should develop moderately, setting up well for horses with finishing kick.
Key Angles to Consider
The “beaten favorite” angle supports Virtuosity, as horses coming off close defeats in maiden company often breakthrough in their next start. The surface switch angle favors horses with turf breeding moving from dirt, particularly Military Cruiser. The venue familiarity angle strongly supports Virtuosity, Notion In Motion, and Sam The Sham, all having recent Colonial Downs experience.
Track and Weather Impact
Today’s firm turf conditions favor horses with proven turf form and tactical speed. The five-furlong distance on Colonial’s turf course typically rewards horses that can secure good position early and maintain their run through the stretch. Draw advantages are minimal at this distance, though inside posts can provide ground-saving trips if horses break alertly.
Wagering Analysis
Win bet: Virtuosity offers the most reliable win chance with proven form over course and distance
Place/Show: Manseeyasway provides excellent value given his strong Delaware form and surface versatility
Exacta: Key Virtuosity over Manseeyasway, Serendipitymonday, and Rebel With A Clue
Trifecta: Use Virtuosity and Manseeyasway on top with Serendipitymonday, Rebel With A Clue, and Notion In Motion underneath
Superfecta: Include Sam The Sham as a potential fourth-place finisher given his troubled trip last time
Suggested Selections
Win: Virtuosity
Place: Manseeyasway
Show: Serendipitymonday
Exacta: Virtuosity over Manseeyasway, Serendipitymonday, Rebel With A Clue
Trifecta: Virtuosity, Manseeyasway with Serendipitymonday, Rebel With A Clue, Notion In Motion
This maiden special weight sets up as a competitive sprint where Virtuosity’s course and distance form gives him a clear edge, but the generous odds on Manseeyasway create an attractive upset scenario for value-seeking bettors. The race should produce honest pace and reward horses with tactical positioning and proven turf form.
Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf
Analysis centers on American Unity (5/2), Rigel (7/2), Storming Chrome (9/2), Class Photo (4/1), Happyisashappydoes (5/1), Regal Kingdom (8/1), and Tom Hagen (8/1). American Unity shows the most consistent form and tactical speed, with Rigel the main danger if able to rate just off the pace. Storming Chrome projects as a value play, capable of closing late should the top two battle early. Happyisashappydoes could round out trifectas at a price. This race should see a moderate to fast tempo, offering late runners a shot. Primary selection is American Unity, exacta with Rigel, and trifecta including Storming Chrome and Happyisashappydoes.
Race 6 Detailed Analysis – Colonial Downs Claiming Race
This claiming race features a competitive field of nine horses with relatively tight odds suggesting an evenly matched group. The morning line spreads from Great Artist at 3-1 down to longshot Can’t Stand Disco at 30-1, indicating handicappers see several legitimate contenders.
Key Contenders Analysis
Great Artist (3/1) – The morning line favorite enters with solid credentials and represents the safest win bet in the field. His consistent form and ability to handle claiming company make him the horse to beat. The connections have shown confidence by entering at this level, and the moderate odds suggest steady public support.
Mamba Mindset (7/2) – The second choice brings intriguing tactical speed that could prove decisive if he can dictate terms on the front end. His aggressive early positioning style fits well with Colonial Downs’ configuration, where pressing horses often maintain their advantage through the stretch.
Venezuela Is Gold (4/1) – This Florida-based runner brings extensive experience from Gulfstream Park under trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. His recent form shows mixed results in 2025, including a seventh-place finish in June, fourth in May, and sixth in April, all at Gulfstream. However, his September 2024 victory at Gulfstream demonstrates his ability to win at this level when conditions align. The surface switch to Colonial Downs’ main track could provide the change of scenery needed for improved performance.
Secondary Choices
Basic Truth (6/1) and Awesome Fantasy (6/1) – Both horses offer solid value at identical odds and should be considered for exotic wagers. Their morning line positions suggest they possess the class to compete but may need the right trip to threaten the top choices.
Longshot Analysis
Paez (8/1) – Recently competed at Colonial Downs, finishing behind Daddy Yankee in a six-furlong sprint on the fast track with trainer Eduardo Azpurua. His familiarity with the Colonial surface could provide an edge, and at 8-1 odds, he represents legitimate upset potential in a competitive field.
Bottoms Up (8/1) – Shares identical odds with Paez and brings his own set of credentials to the race. At this price, he merits consideration for trifecta and superfecta combinations.
Intolerable (15/1) – The longest price with realistic chances offers potential for exotic payouts if the pace scenario unfolds favorably.
Can’t Stand Disco (30/1) – The field’s longest shot would need everything to go perfectly to factor, making him primarily a deep superfecta play only.
Pace Analysis
The presence of Mamba Mindset suggests early pressure, which could set up a favorable scenario for closers. Great Artist’s tactical flexibility allows him to adapt to various pace scenarios, while Venezuela Is Gold’s Gulfstream experience includes races at different pace setups. If the early pace becomes contentious between Mamba Mindset and other speed, it could open the door for mid-pack runners to make their moves in the stretch.
Key Angles to Consider
The trainer angle favors horses making surface or venue changes, particularly Venezuela Is Gold moving from Gulfstream’s unique characteristics to Colonial’s more conventional layout. Local knowledge benefits Paez, who has recent Colonial Downs experience. The claiming level suggests these are honest horses who will run to their abilities, making form analysis paramount.
Wagering Analysis
Win bet: Great Artist offers the most reliable win chance at fair odds
Place/Show: Venezuela Is Gold provides value given his class and trainer
Exacta: Key Great Artist over Mamba Mindset and Venezuela Is Gold
Trifecta: Use Great Artist, Mamba Mindset, and Venezuela Is Gold in the top two spots with Paez, Basic Truth, and Awesome Fantasy underneath
Superfecta: Include Bottoms Up and Intolerable as potential fourth-place finishers
Suggested Selection
Win: Great Artist
Place: Venezuela Is Gold
Show: Mamba Mindset
Exacta: Great Artist over Venezuela Is Gold, Mamba Mindset
Trifecta: Great Artist, Venezuela Is Gold, Mamba Mindset with Paez, Basic Truth, Awesome Fantasy
The race sets up as a competitive claiming event where Great Artist’s consistency gives him the edge, but Venezuela Is Gold’s class and Paez’s track familiarity provide interesting alternative approaches for value-seeking bettors.
Race 8 Detailed Analysis – Colonial Downs $72,000 Allowance Optional Claiming
This $72,000 Allowance Optional Claiming event over one mile on the dirt track represents the feature race of the evening card, attracting eleven runners with a generous purse structure offering $45,360 to the winner. The allowance optional claiming condition typically draws competitive horses from both claiming and allowance ranks, creating intriguing class dynamics where form and condition often prove more important than pedigree.
Key Contenders Analysis
Quadra (5/2 favorite) – The Violence colt out of Summer Escape enters as the deserving morning line choice after “bolting up” in his last Colonial Downs start. His dominant previous performance at the venue demonstrates both fitness and affinity for the track, earning him an official rating of 88. The son of Violence brings tactical speed and proven ability at the distance, making him the horse to beat in this competitive field. His breeding suggests durability at one mile, and his recent form indicates peak condition.
Lady De Berry (7/2) – This Point of Entry mare from Summer Escape carries solid credentials with an official rating of 81. The analysis suggests she “could give the selection the most to think about,” indicating handicappers view her as the primary threat to the favorite. Point of Entry offspring often excel at one mile on dirt, particularly fillies and mares who can rate kindly and finish strongly. Her connections at Double B Racing Stables suggest quality care and preparation.
Stella Mars (4/1) – The Medaglia d’Oro colt from Victory to Victory brings an impressive official rating of 92, actually higher than the favorite. This suggests significant class and ability, though recent form may not be as sharp as Quadra’s. Medaglia d’Oro progeny typically handle one mile well and often improve with age and experience. His Live Oak Plantation connections are known for patient development and quality horses.
Secondary Choices Analysis
Cairo Street (6/1) – The Cairo Prince gelding from Taylor Street carries a solid rating of 90 and represents legitimate value at morning line odds. Cairo Prince offspring often show tactical speed and versatility, making him dangerous in allowance company. His connections at Liberty House Racing suggest quality preparation and realistic expectations.
Victory Badge (8/1) and Lakeside Getaway (8/1) – Both horses offer identical odds and represent potential value plays. Victory Badge, a Frosted colt, brings a rating of 90 and breeding that suggests mile suitability. Lakeside Getaway, by Get Stormy, carries a rating of 84 and could benefit from a pace setup.
Longshot Considerations
Le Touche (15/1) – The Cross Traffic colt from Pearl Bay offers the best price among legitimate contenders with a respectable rating of 78. Cross Traffic progeny often show improvement with age and distance, making him a potential upset candidate if the pace develops favorably.
Storm Bay, Dulce Despertar, Spotty Showers, and Kake’s Tap Dancer (all 30/1) – These longest prices provide exotic play opportunities. Storm Bay, an Authentic colt with a rating of 96, actually carries the highest rating in the field but faces significant form questions. The other 30/1 shots would need everything to break perfectly to factor significantly.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile dirt distance typically produces moderate early fractions, allowing tactical positioning to influence outcomes significantly. Quadra’s ability to “bolt up” suggests he possesses both early speed and sustainable pace, making him dangerous from various trip scenarios. Lady De Berry’s Point of Entry breeding indicates rating ability, while Stella Mars’ Medaglia d’Oro lineage suggests closing punch. The pace should develop honestly, setting up well for horses with tactical flexibility.
Key Angles to Consider
The “back to the scene of the crime” angle strongly favors Quadra, whose dominant last-out Colonial Downs victory demonstrates both venue familiarity and current form. The breeding angle supports horses by proven sire sources like Medaglia d’Oro (Stella Mars), Point of Entry (Lady De Berry), and Violence (Quadra). The rating angle intriguingly favors Storm Bay (96) and Stella Mars (92) over the favorite Quadra (88), suggesting potential value if form translates to performance.
Surface and Distance Considerations
The one-mile dirt distance at Colonial Downs typically rewards horses with tactical speed and finishing ability. The track’s configuration allows for fair racing from various running styles, though horses that can secure good position through the first turn often maintain advantages. Today’s fast track conditions should produce honest times and reward horses in peak condition.
Class and Condition Analysis
The allowance optional claiming structure creates interesting dynamics where claiming-level horses can compete with allowance company. Quadra’s recent dominant performance suggests he’s found his proper level, while higher-rated horses like Stella Mars and Storm Bay may need to prove their ratings translate to current ability. The generous purse structure ($72,000 total) indicates quality competition throughout the field.
Wagering Analysis
Win bet: Quadra offers the most reliable win chance based on recent Colonial Downs dominance and current form
Place/Show: Lady De Berry provides excellent value given her breeding and connections
Exacta: Key Quadra over Lady De Berry, Stella Mars, and Cairo Street
Trifecta: Use Quadra and Lady De Berry in top two spots with Stella Mars, Cairo Street, Victory Badge, and Lakeside Getaway underneath
Superfecta: Include Le Touche and potentially Storm Bay as fourth-place finishers for enhanced payouts
Suggested Selections
Win: Quadra
Place: Lady De Berry
Show: Stella Mars
Exacta: Quadra over Lady De Berry, Stella Mars, Cairo Street
Trifecta: Quadra, Lady De Berry with Stella Mars, Cairo Street, Victory Badge, Lakeside Getaway
This allowance optional claiming feature sets up as a competitive test where Quadra’s recent Colonial Downs dominance and proven form give him a clear edge, but the depth of the field and various ratings create multiple upset scenarios for value-conscious bettors. The race should reward current form and tactical positioning over pure class or breeding credentials.
Saturday Preview: Old Dominion Derby
Though not part of today’s racing, attention turns toward World Beater for Saturday’s Old Dominion Derby, with Thirteen Colonies and Outrunner posing upset potential. Bettors should note the race’s historical significance, strong favorites, and late-running types being favored in stakes turf routes.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jorge Ruiz, regular rider at Colonial Downs, remains reliable for tactical rides in turf routes, recently guiding winners in allowance company. Mychel Sanchez and Kendrick Carmouche, also active this week, bring solid credentials, especially in races where tactical placement is key. Paco Lopez, aboard Outrunner Saturday, is recognized for his aggressive early positioning. Edwin Gonzalez and Axel Concepcion are notable for consistency and success on the meet; bet their mounts when speed is a factor.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Ken McPeek continues to place horses effectively in stamina-rich turf contests; bet his runners when reverting to grass or stretching out. Graham Motion’s starters excel in turf routes, particularly when coming off troubled trips. Jose D’Angelo’s claimers, especially those switching surfaces, are well prepared, while Dale Romans targets races where closers could get fast paces. Riley Mott, leading the World Beater charge in Saturday’s stake, brings top-tier form. For claiming and allowance events, watch for trainers dropping in class or changing surfaces; those angles have been profitable at Colonial.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Main ticket strategies today include win bets on top-rated contenders, with exactas and trifectas built around secondary choices and proven closers. Keep an eye out for pace meltdowns in mid-card routes, where longshot closers Paez (Race 6) and Storming Chrome (Race 4) could deliver value for trifecta and superfecta tickets. Multi-race wagers should focus on consistent speed and strong barns with proven Colonial Downs experience.
Previous Day’s Highlights
On September 3, firm turf and fast dirt allowed beyond-expectation performances in allowance and claiming events. Cobblestone Bridge delivered a rallying finish in Race 5, while Night Time Nap showed class with early speed. Exacta and trifecta payouts were robust in several races, rewarding those who included proven closers in their bets. Track condition remained consistent, providing a reliable surface for handicapping throughout the card.
