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Colonial Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 14, 2026 card

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Virginia Derby Day at Colonial Downs on March 14, 2026, offers a compact 10-race all-dirt card anchored by the Virginia Oaks in race 8 and the Virginia Derby in race 9, with several supporting stakes and higher-end maiden events earlier on the program. The configuration is a one-mile dirt oval, and today's races span from 6-furlong sprints to 1 1/8-mile routes, emphasizing stamina and tactical speed in the middle and late races.

This meet is positioned as an early-season showcase for three-year-olds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, with Kentucky Oaks points on offer in race 8 and Derby points in race 9. Under-card stakes (races 5, 6, and 7) give older horses a chance to earn black type and serve as key pace and bias references for the main events.

Field sizes are moderate (5 to 10 runners), which lowers chaos slightly but still allows for price opportunities, particularly in maiden claimers and the allowance optional claimer in race 10. With several top national barns (Cox, Pletcher, Baffert, Joseph, Russell, Stidham, Mott) and premier riders (Ortiz, Prat, Velazquez, Leparoux), class and intent should be taken very seriously in your wagering approach.

Weather and Track Conditions

Historical weather data and medium-range outlooks for New Kent, Virginia, show typical mid-March conditions with daytime highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows in the low-to-mid 40s, with a non-trivial chance of precipitation. Forecast snapshots for New Kent on March 14 indicate a cool day with potential for rain early and clearing later, suggesting the possibility of a track that starts wet or muddy and gradually dries toward “good” or even “fast” by the afternoon stakes.

Given Colonial's sand-based surface and drainage, the main track generally dries efficiently once steady rain stops, and it often plays fairly even once labeled fast, with early speed more potent in sprints and tactical speed key in routes. If significant moisture remains by mid-card, expect inside paths to be preferred early, with more even lane distribution once the track has been harrowed and the sun or wind have a chance to work on it.

In the absence of official race-morning track reports, you should monitor tote and on-track commentary close to post time; any downgrade from fast to good or sloppy would upgrade horses with prior off-track success and trainers who excel with wet-track runners. For purposes of this analysis, assumptions about an off track are avoided; treat all off-track angles as conditional and be ready to adjust if the official surface designation changes.

Track Bias and Post Position Profile

Colonial Downs' dirt profile over recent meets shows a consistent tilt toward early speed in 6-furlong sprints, where nearly half to three-quarters of winners have been on or very near the lead at the first call. In these sprints, middle and outside posts have tended to outperform the rail slightly, largely because they offer cleaner runs into the turn and avoid traffic and kickback from inside.

At one mile on dirt, the bias has generally favored tactical speed rather than pure front-runners, with “E/P” types who can sit just off the pace and pounce proving most effective. Post-wise, the rail and inside paths have historically been strong at a mile once the track is fair, though when the surface is wet, extreme inside or outside can become temporarily advantageous depending on how the crown and drainage set up on a given day.

At 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles, speed bias diminishes further, and position entering the far turn matters as much as early fractions; sustained movers who can make a long, uninterrupted run from the second flight often dominate the stretch. Given today's stakes distances (1 mile, 1 1/16 miles, 1 1/8 miles), horses with tactical versatility and proven stamina should be given preference over one-dimensional burners or deep closers who require melt-down scenarios.

1st Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse 75,000. For maidens, three-year-olds. Field of 5.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:00 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

With only five entrants, the pace picture is relatively straightforward and likely honest but not suicidal. Ramajay (5) projects as a key early factor given the aggressive riding style of Flavien Prat and the Saffie Joseph barn's tendency to send debut or lightly raced sprinters forward.​

Tilson (3) and Beijing (4), both from the Walden barn, add some pace and pressing presence; one may go while the other stalks, depending on rider instructions. Mizner (2) and Ballinaclash (1) appear more likely to settle behind the first flight and try to run at them late, but in a small field they cannot fall too far back and still expect to win going six furlongs.

Given Colonial's sprint bias toward speed and outside/middle posts, the setup is mildly favorable to those who secure forward, outside-trip positions while maintaining some pace efficiency.

Key Contenders

Ramajay (5) is a primary win candidate based on human connections and projected trip; Joseph's runners are typically well-meant in maiden specials, and Prat's ability to judge pace and finish should yield a prominent, stalking or pace-setting trip from an advantageous outside draw. If Ramajay (5) has shown any hint of quick works leading in, this only adds to his appeal as today's likely favorite or co-favorite.

Beijing (4), paired with John Velazquez for Walden, offers an attractive combination of experience and tactical speed, particularly if he has prior race foundation and can avoid dueling too hard with Ramajay (5). The outside-middle draw should allow Beijing (4) to track the pace and launch a sustained run turning for home, a pattern that fits Colonial's 6-furlong profile well.

Secondary Choices

Tilson (3) looks like the more tactical of the two Walden entries if Beijing (4) is not the designated speed; Jaime Torres can place Tilson (3) in the pocket behind any early duel and angle out in upper stretch. If the top pair underperform or get embroiled in a sharper-than-expected pace battle, Tilson (3) is the most logical beneficiary among the remaining runners.

Mizner (2), under Sheldon Russell for Brittany Russell, is a classic underneath player with upside; Brittany is adept at improving horses second and third time out, and Russell can work out a ground-saving trip behind the speed. Mizner (2) may lack the pure speed to match the top pair, but he is a legitimate contender to fill out exactas and trifectas at a playable price.

Longshots

Ballinaclash (1), trained by Phil Schoenthal with Jevian Toledo aboard, draws the rail and will need a sharp break to avoid being shuffled; otherwise, he risks eating kickback behind more talented rivals. The connections are capable, and in a small field he cannot be completely dismissed for minor awards, but he appears a notch below the primary win hopes on paper.

Betting Strategy

Focus verticals around Ramajay (5) and Beijing (4), with Tilson (3) and Mizner (2) as key underneath pieces. Use Ballinaclash (1) sparingly in deeper trifecta or superfecta tickets only if the board suggests hidden money.

Selections

Win Ramajay (5)
Place Beijing (4)
Show Tilson (3)

2nd Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 40,000. Virginia-restricted maidens, fillies and mares three and up. Claiming 16,000. Field of 8.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:35 PM.​

Pace Analysis

There is a moderate amount of pace signed on, but no obvious need-the-lead burner, suggesting a relatively controlled tempo that rewards tactical position. Entitled Defense (1) and As The Bell Toles (3) figure to be forward from their inside draws, with Meredithslightning (2) and Mille Mccall (7) close by.

Clearly Inish (8) and Valerie Street (5) appear more likely to stalk or mid-pack, while Ithadtobeblu (4) and Vino Bella (6) may sit further back depending on break and intent. On Colonial's one-mile track, inside tactical runners tend to have an edge if the rail is fair, making the early positioning of the inside trio critical.

Key Contenders

As The Bell Toles (3), under Jevian Toledo for Brittany Russell, stands out on trainer intent, class placement, and likely improvement in this restricted claiming spot. From post 3, she should secure a ground-saving pressing trip and has the right rider to time a move turning for home.

Entitled Defense (1), with Jevian Briceno riding for Phil Schoenthal, gets the rail and the chance to control or trail the pace inside; if she breaks alertly, she can leverage a favorable inside trip and a slight class edge over most of this field. Clearly Inish (8), trained by Jay Bernardini, is an outside tactical alternative who may get a clean, stalking trip in the clear if she can avoid being hung wide into the first turn.

Secondary Choices

Vino Bella (6), from the Stidham barn with Julio Hernandez, drops into a claiming spot and should appreciate the one-turn mile if she has been running against stronger company previously. Mille Mccall (7), another from Niall Saville, has enough positional speed to be in the first flight and could hang around for a share if she finishes better than in prior attempts.

Valerie Street (5), with Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon as trainer and Ismerio Villalobos riding, looks like a grinder who may clunk up late into a minor placing if the pace is more contested than it appears.​

Longshots

Ithadtobeblu (4), trained by Hugh McMahon, and Meredithslightning (2), trained by Niall Saville, appear a notch below the main players, needing both improvement and some racing luck. Still, in a restricted field, either could grab a minor slice with the right setup or in the event of key rivals underperforming.

Betting Strategy

Lean on As The Bell Toles (3) as the primary win play, backing up with Entitled Defense (1) as a saver if the rail is playing strongly. Use Clearly Inish (8) and Vino Bella (6) prominently underneath in exactas and trifectas, with Mille Mccall (7) and Valerie Street (5) in deeper constructions.

Selections

Win As The Bell Toles (3)
Place Entitled Defense (1)
Show Clearly Inish (8)

3rd Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

MAIDEN CLAIMING. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse 50,000. Virginia-restricted maidens, three and up. Claiming 30,000. Field of 8.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:10 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This race shapes up with a stronger early component than the first, featuring several whose best chance is to be prominent from the break. Cool Customer (1), Hard Stance (2), Overspent (6), and Fayes Heart (7) all have the profiles of horses that want to be in the first flight, while Free Costs To Much (4) and Summerinthecountry (5) may stalk.

Sweet Spy (8) and Karma's Inthehouse (3) figure to drop in mid-pack or farther back, hoping for a contested pace to set up their late run. Given Colonial's sprint bias, the advantage remains with those on or near the lead, but the presence of multiple speed types raises the chance that a mid-pack stalker or off-the-pace type can capitalize.

Key Contenders

Overspent (6), with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding for Mark Shuman, is a clear key contender, combining top-tier riding with a barn that places to win and the right tactical style to sit just off the speed and pounce. From post 6, he should avoid the inside scramble and get a relatively clean trip into the turn.

Hard Stance (2), with Jevian Toledo and Anthony Farrior, is another serious win player; Farrior's runners in restricted claiming spots are typically well-intended, and Toledo's aggressive early style fits Colonial sprints perfectly. If Hard Stance (2) breaks sharply, he could find himself in a controlling position inside or in a pressing role just off the pace.

Secondary Choices

Cool Customer (1), from Michael Stidham's barn, must overcome the rail and a previous veterinarian scratch noted on the scratch watch. If healthy and fit, he can show speed from the inside, but risk remains that he will face pressure from multiple outside speeds and might tire late.

Fayes Heart (7), with Xavier Perez for John Robb, has a profile of a horse who can sit in the second tier and make a sustained run; Robb often spots his horses well in restricted company. Sweet Spy (8), trained by Ferris Allen III, has the outside post and may attempt a sit-and-pounce approach, which could be effective if the leaders soften each other up.

Longshots

Karma's Inthehouse (3) and Free Costs To Much (4), both from the Diana McClure barn, appear more like underneath types who will need a complete pace collapse to win. Summerinthecountry (5), from the Hugh McMahon barn, is similar in that respect, but can round out superfecta tickets if the lane bias promotes outside late runners.

Betting Strategy

Use Overspent (6) and Hard Stance (2) as the primary win keys, with vertical tickets centered on those two in the top slots. Consider including Fayes Heart (7), Sweet Spy (8), and Cool Customer (1) in trifectas and superfectas, while sprinkling the longshots only in deeper exotic structures.

Selections

Win Overspent (6)
Place Hard Stance (2)
Show Fayes Heart (7)

4th Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 75,000. For maidens, three-year-olds. Field of 8.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:45 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This is a two-turn mile where pace will be shaped by several route-capable types with tactical speed. Love Yourself (1), Mr. Hinx (4), Beale Street Boy (5), and Ezum (6) all project to show some early initiative, with Virginia Gentry (2) and Still Sober (3) in pressing or stalking roles.

Naabaahii (7) and Sir George (8) appear more likely to settle mid-pack and look for a late rally, depending on how ambitious their riders are into the first turn. With Colonial's mile profile favoring E/P types and the rail inside posts, horses that can secure inside position near the lead will have an advantage.

Key Contenders

Ezum (6), trained by Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, is the obvious horse to beat on paper; Cox's three-year-old maidens in routes are typically well-prepared, and Ortiz is adept at securing tactical position and finishing strongly. From post 6, Ezum (6) can sit just outside the pace and make a sustained move, which fits the track's profile for mile routes.

Naabaahii (7), from Brittany Russell with Sheldon Russell in the irons, is another high-upside contender; Russell's barn excels with route horses, and Naabaahii (7) should move forward stretching out or with added experience. If Naabaahii (7) avoids losing too much ground on the turns, he is a live alternative to the Cox favorite.

Secondary Choices

Virginia Gentry (2), from trainer Michael Trombetta with Mychel Sanchez riding, is a logical underneath and upset candidate; Trombetta is capable with route maidens, and the inside post could yield a perfect pocket trip behind the leaders. Still Sober (3), under Jaime Torres for Eduardo Caramori, has the profile of a grinder who can maintain a steady pace and pick up pieces late if the tempo is honest.

Sir George (8), trained by Michael Gorham with Raul Mena aboard, may improve second or third time routing and could be a price horse who sneaks into the frame with a wide, sustained run.

Longshots

Love Yourself (1) from Niall Saville, Mr. Hinx (4) from Irvin Flores, and Beale Street Boy (5) from Ben Colebrook all offer some early or tactical speed but may lack the finishing punch of the top pair. Each can be used underneath in exotics, especially if the inside remains strong and the pace is moderate, but they look like more likely minor-award candidates.

Betting Strategy

Ezum (6) is a logical single in many multi-race wagers, especially early sequences, with Naabaahii (7) used as a backup or saver alternative. In intra-race bets, emphasize exactas and trifectas with Ezum (6) and Naabaahii (7) on top of Virginia Gentry (2), Still Sober (3), and Sir George (8).

Selections

Win Ezum (6)
Place Naabaahii (7)
Show Virginia Gentry (2)

5th Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

STAKES. Royal New Kent Stakes. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 100,000. Four-year-olds and upward. Field of 6.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:20 PM.

Pace Analysis

This older-horse mile stakes has a compact field and several runners with tactical speed, suggesting a measured but honest pace. Rolando (1) and Tour Player (4) may show early ambition, while Komorebino Omoide (2), Pay Billy (3), Raise Cain (5), and Dragoon Guard (6) can all sit just off the leaders.

Given Colonial's dirt-mile bias, horses who secure inside or just-off-the-pace positions are favored; with no obvious wire-type standout, the race may come down to who gets the best trip and who is sharpest today.

Key Contenders

Dragoon Guard (6), from Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr., is a key win candidate combining class, connections, and a perfect outside tactical draw that should allow a stalking, three-wide press into the first turn. Cox's older route horses are typically very fit, and Ortiz excels in these tactical-route stakes.

Raise Cain (5), trained by Brittany Russell with Sheldon Russell riding, has back-class and may be well-spotted here if he has been facing stronger graded company in prior starts. His style as a stalking closer fits the projected pace scenario, and the Russell barn's strong recent form at mid-Atlantic tracks should be respected.

Secondary Choices

Komorebino Omoide (2), trained by Rob Atras and ridden by Cristian Torres, is an older Japanese-bred horse with stakes form and a prior stakes scratch noted. If fully cranked here, he can sit a perfect inside-trip just behind the leaders and pose a late threat at a potentially interesting price.

Tour Player (4), with Flavien Prat riding for Whit Beckman, has the potential to control or sit very close to the pace, making him dangerous if the early fractions are moderate. Rolando (1), for Fausto Gutierrez with Julien Leparoux, may also ride the rail and seek a ground-saving journey; Leparoux often excels in such tactical scenarios.

Longshots

Pay Billy (3), trained by Michael Gorham with Raul Mena, appears to be the longest shot on class and speed figures relative to the rest. He can be used underneath only in deep exotics in case of a pace collapse or if he improves beyond prior form.

Betting Strategy

Use Dragoon Guard (6) and Raise Cain (5) as the main win keys, with Komorebino Omoide (2) and Tour Player (4) as strong exacta and trifecta inclusions. Spread lightly to Rolando (1) in multi-race wagers where budget allows, and mostly leave Pay Billy (3) to superfecta “bomb” status.

Selections

Win Dragoon Guard (6)
Place Raise Cain (5)
Show Komorebino Omoide (2)

6th Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

STAKES. Fasig-Tipton Sandy Bottom Stakes. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 100,000. Fillies and mares, four and up. Field of 7.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:55 PM.

Pace Analysis

Several fillies and mares in this field bring tactical or outright early speed, including Passage East (1), Running Away (3), Amalfi Drive (4), and Brown Sugar (5). Chasten (6) and Her Laugh (7) are more mid-pack to late runners, while Zadorsky (2) may take a stalking inside role.

The likely result is a measured but contested pace that should not collapse completely but will reward those who can sit just behind the leaders and finish strongly. The one-turn mile configuration again points to E/P types as ideal.

Key Contenders

Chasten (6), for Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr., is the probable favorite and key contender based on class, consistency, and a running style that perfectly suits this race. She can track the pace from mid-pack, avoid early quarrels, and launch a decisive rally turning for home.

Brown Sugar (5), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Flavien Prat aboard, has the potential to either set or press the pace while still possessing a strong finishing kick; Joseph's older fillies often run big in these one-mile stakes assignments. With Prat's timing, Brown Sugar (5) is a legitimate threat to Chasten (6), especially if the track favors speed.

Secondary Choices

Amalfi Drive (4), for Michael Stidham and Jevian Toledo, could be a live secondary contender; she has been on also-eligible lists in prior allowance spots and may be ready to step forward here. Passage East (1), trained by Hugh McMahon with Sheldon Russell, will need to navigate from the rail but can be dangerous if she breaks sharply and secures a favorable stalking position.

Her Laugh (7), from Riley Mott with John Velazquez riding, is a deep closer who could be very effective if the leaders overdo it early. Zadorsky (2), with Joseph Ramos for Whit Beckman, offers an inside stalking option and may sit a rail-skimming trip into contention.

Longshots

Running Away (3), trained by Wesley Ward with Victor Espinoza, is an intriguing but volatile runner; Ward's horses can sometimes surprise going short to a mile, but she appears a step slower compared to the top choices on paper. She is best treated as a possible exotic inclusion if the board shows unexpected support.

Betting Strategy

Build most tickets around Chasten (6) and Brown Sugar (5), using them as win and top-of-exacta keys. Use Amalfi Drive (4), Passage East (1), and Her Laugh (7) underneath in exactas and trifectas, with Zadorsky (2) and Running Away (3) sprinkled in deeper exotics.

Selections

Win Chasten (6)
Place Brown Sugar (5)
Show Amalfi Drive (4)

7th Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

STAKES. Fasig-Tipton Sandy Bottom Stakes (second division or related stake). 1 Mile Dirt. Purse 100,000. Fillies and mares, four and up. Field of 7.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:30 PM.

Pace Analysis

Queen Azteca (1), Conch Fried Rice (4), Miss Authentic (5), and Eunomia (6) bring early or pressing speed, while Sultry Lass (2), Think Fast (3), and Runaway Diva (7) are more mid-pack to late runners. This shapes up as another tactical-speed friendly race, though the inside posts may exert a bit more control given Colonial's configuration.

Expect a solid but not blistering pace, with the outer speed horses trying to clear or sit alongside Queen Azteca (1), forcing a quick early decision from riders.​

Key Contenders

Eunomia (6), trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Flavien Prat, is a strong key contender with the right blend of tactical speed and finishing power. From post 6, she can track outside of the main pace, avoid traffic, and deliver her run at the quarter pole.

Miss Authentic (5), from Eddie Kenneally with John Velazquez aboard, is another high-quality contender; she likely sits in the first flight and can either press or stalk, depending on the break. Kenneally's older fillies tend to fire off freshening and in well-targeted stakes placements.

Secondary Choices

Queen Azteca (1), for Rodolphe Brisset with Cristian Torres, has rail speed and could attempt to wire this group if she clears or if the pace is softer than anticipated. Sultry Lass (2), trained by Brittany Russell with Sheldon Russell, will likely stalk behind the leaders and look to capitalize if they tire late; she is a strong candidate for exacta and trifecta slots.

Conch Fried Rice (4), from Michael Stidham with Jevian Toledo, has enough tactical pace to stay involved early and may hang on for a share. Runaway Diva (7), trained by Michelle Hemingway with Julien Leparoux, is a late-running type who could pick up pieces if the pace sharpens more than forecast.

Longshots

Think Fast (3), trained by Hugh McMahon with Yedsit Hazlewood, appears the longest shot on paper, needing a perfect trip and some regression from the main contenders to contend for the win. She is best used only in deep exotics if you expect a complete pace meltdown.

Betting Strategy

Key Eunomia (6) and Miss Authentic (5) on top in win bets and exactas, with Queen Azteca (1) and Sultry Lass (2) as primary underneath options. Add Conch Fried Rice (4), Runaway Diva (7), and Think Fast (3) in trifectas and superfectas for coverage.

Selections

Win Eunomia (6)
Place Miss Authentic (5)
Show Sultry Lass (2)

8th Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

STAKES. Virginia Oaks Presented by New Kent County. 1 1/16 Miles Dirt. Purse 250,000. Three-year-old fillies. Road to the Kentucky Oaks points. Field of 6.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 4:25 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Several fillies have tactical speed suitable for this two-turn route, including Dazzling Dame (1), Hit Parade (2), Bottle Of Rouge (3), and Kadabra (4), while Somemunny To Love (5) and Baffle (6) may stalk or sit mid-pack. There is no clear need-the-lead front-runner, suggesting a moderate, evenly distributed pace that plays into the hands of tactical stalkers and riders who secure good position into the first turn.

Given the extra sixteenth of a mile and the stakes context, stamina and ability to sustain a long run will be critical; two-turn experience is a plus.

Key Contenders

Hit Parade (2), trained by Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr., is a major win contender; Cox owns a strong record in Oaks preps and typically brings fit, improving fillies at this stage of the season. From post 2, Hit Parade (2) can secure a ground-saving tracking trip behind Dazzling Dame (1) and perhaps Kadabra (4), then angle out at the top of the stretch.

Bottle Of Rouge (3), trained by Bob Baffert with Flavien Prat, is another elite contender; Baffert's three-year-old route fillies have generated strong speed figures historically, and Prat's presence suggests serious intent. She projects to sit in the first flight, perhaps pressing the leader, and has the kind of tactical speed this track rewards.

Secondary Choices

Kadabra (4), from Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez, brings top-tier connections and likely improved stamina, especially if she has already shown route capability. Pletcher-Velazquez in a three-year-old filly stakes is a proven combination, making Kadabra (4) an essential exacta and trifecta inclusion.

Dazzling Dame (1), trained by Brittany Russell with Jevian Toledo, draws the rail and may be sent to ensure position; if she relaxes on or near the lead, she is good enough to stay on for a major share. Somemunny To Love (5), trained by Flint Stites with Julio Hernandez, and Baffle (6), another from the Pletcher barn with Rajiv Maragh, appear a notch below the top trio but can run into the frame if the race shape becomes more favorable for off-the-pace types.

Longshots

Somemunny To Love (5) and Baffle (6) function as the longshot elements in a small field; both need improved efforts and pace help to win but are viable for lower slots in exotics.

Betting Strategy

Focus win bets on Hit Parade (2) and Bottle Of Rouge (3), with Kadabra (4) as a strong saver. Use those three heavily in exacta and trifecta combinations, with Dazzling Dame (1), Somemunny To Love (5), and Baffle (6) as underneath options, particularly if you sense that the rail is strong or closers are making late headway in earlier routes.

Selections

Win Hit Parade (2)
Place Bottle Of Rouge (3)
Show Kadabra (4)

9th Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

STAKES. Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County. 1 1/8 Miles Dirt. Purse 500,000. Three-year-olds. Field of 10.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 5:10 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This is the centerpiece of the card and features a blend of speed, pressers, and classic-route types. Buetane (1), Work (4), High Camp (5), and Lockstocknpharoah (6) all have potential pace or pressing roles, while Grittiness (2), Epic Desire (3), Incredibolt (7), Confessional (8), Ocelli (9), and Clocker Special (10) appear more likely to be mid-pack stalkers or later runners.

With multiple pace-capable horses and the added distance of 1 1/8 miles, a realistic scenario is a solid, honest pace that tests stamina but does not completely melt down, rewarding horses who can secure a position in the second flight and make a strong run from the three-eighths pole home. Gate position will be crucial, particularly for Buetane (1) on the rail and Confessional (8) and Clocker Special (10) outside.

Key Contenders

Buetane (1), trained by Bob Baffert with Flavien Prat, is a major win contender; Baffert excels with Derby-type three-year-olds stretching to 1 1/8 miles, and Buetane (1) has been nominated to and scratched from graded events like the Holy Bull earlier in the season, indicating high regard. From the rail, Prat will aim to secure a ground-saving stalking trip just behind the front line, which fits Colonial's longer-route profile.

Confessional (8), trained by Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz Jr., is another top-caliber player; Cox's three-year-olds have produced some of the highest speed ratings at Colonial in recent Virginia Derby renewals. Confessional (8) has the tactical speed to avoid being shuffled and should be positioned in the clear outside of traffic before launching his run.

Secondary Choices

Grittiness (2), from Todd Pletcher with Rajiv Maragh, is a live secondary contender; Pletcher's classic-route three-year-olds often blossom in these mid-March preps. From post 2, Grittiness (2) can work a pocket trip behind the leaders and save ground throughout, a valuable asset at 1 1/8 miles.

Epic Desire (3), another Pletcher trainee under Sheldon Russell, adds depth to the barn's hand and may offer value if Buetane (1) and Confessional (8) take most of the money. Incredibolt (7), with Jaime Torres riding for Riley Mott, and Clocker Special (10), with Cristian Torres for Rodolphe Brisset, both have profiles of improving three-year-olds who could take a step forward and hit the frame.

Longshots

Work (4), trained by Doug O'Neill with Mychel Sanchez, and High Camp (5), from William Walden with John Velazquez, have speed but must prove they can carry it the full 1 1/8 miles against this class. Lockstocknpharoah (6), trained by Thomas Drury Jr. with Edgar Morales, and Ocelli (9), from Whit Beckman with Joseph Ramos, round out the field and project more as deep exotic types needing significant improvement or a race shape collapse.

Betting Strategy

Anchor multi-race tickets around Buetane (1) and Confessional (8), with Grittiness (2) and Epic Desire (3) used as backups. Within the race, structure exactas and trifectas with Buetane (1) and Confessional (8) on top, mixing in Grittiness (2), Epic Desire (3), Incredibolt (7), and Clocker Special (10) underneath, and using the remaining longshots sparingly.

Selections

Win Buetane (1)
Place Confessional (8)
Show Grittiness (2)

10th Race – Colonial Downs – Saturday, March 14th, 2026

ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 1/16 Miles Dirt. Purse 85,000. For three-year-olds and upward which have never won 18,000 twice other than specified conditions or have never won three races or claiming 50,000. Field of 9.

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 5:50 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This allowance optional claimer includes a mix of proven older horses and rising four-year-olds, with multiple pace components. Dr Ruben M (4), Sharp Tones (5), Freedom Road (6), and Lure Him In (8) can all show speed, while Seeking Unity (1), Steeze (2), Cadeau D'argent (3), Maclean's Rook (7), and Power Seeker (9) figure as stalkers or mid-pack runners.

The presence of older speed like Freedom Road (6) and Lure Him In (8) suggests a solid, potentially testing early pace, which could set the table for horses with tactical patience and finishing power.

Key Contenders

Freedom Road (6), trained by Richard Sillaman with Irad Ortiz Jr., is a major contender if fit; he shows a recent veterinarian scratch noted on the scratch watch, but when right, he possesses strong tactical speed and finishing ability. If he breaks well and secures a pressing or stalking position, he can be very tough at this level.

Lure Him In (8), trained by Sam Wilensky with Flavien Prat, is another critical player; despite a recent vet scratch, his back-class and affinity for route distances make him dangerous here. Prat is likely to place Lure Him In (8) just behind the fastest early fractions, avoiding a duel while still close enough to strike.

Secondary Choices

Steeze (2), from Riley Mott with Jaime Torres, is an improving four-year-old who can stalk and pounce; his profile fits the second-flight pattern that often thrives at 1 1/16 miles. Cadeau D'argent (3), trained by Niall Saville with Xavier Perez, brings consistency and versatility, and could offer value if the most obvious names take the majority of the money.

Maclean's Rook (7), trained by Michael Trombetta with Ismerio Villalobos, is a mid-pack runner who can benefit if the pace gets hot and the leaders weaken late. Seeking Unity (1), with Rajiv Maragh for Fernando Abreu, can sit a rail-skimming stalking trip, which is always dangerous if the inside is playing well.

Longshots

Dr Ruben M (4), from Doug O'Neill with Martin Chuan, and Sharp Tones (5), for Lynn Ashby with Joe Rocco Jr., will need both a favorable pace scenario and step forward efforts to win, but their speed makes them interesting longshots, especially in smaller combinations where wiring the field is possible. Power Seeker (9), trained by Rudy Rodriguez with Jorge Vargas Jr., has some back-class but may be somewhat exposed at this level; he is best used in deeper trifectas and superfectas.

Betting Strategy

Given the potential for a contested pace, tilt your wagering toward Freedom Road (6) and Lure Him In (8) as win keys, but do not ignore Steeze (2), Cadeau D'argent (3), and Maclean's Rook (7) for exactas and trifectas. In multi-race wagers ending here, consider spreading slightly if your earlier legs are narrow, as this race has upset potential if the vet-scratch runners regress.

Selections

Win Freedom Road (6)
Place Lure Him In (8)
Show Steeze (2)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Several of the nation's top riders are in today, bringing significant class and decision-making advantages that should factor into your handicapping. Irad Ortiz Jr. appears on key favorites in races 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10, and his aggressive tactical style combined with Brad Cox and other high-percentage barns makes any horse he rides a serious contender if the form fits.

Flavien Prat, similarly, is aboard major contenders across the card, including Ramajay (5) in race 1, Tour Player (4) in race 5, Brown Sugar (5) in race 6, Eunomia (6) in race 7, Bottle Of Rouge (3) in race 8, Buetane (1) in race 9, and Lure Him In (8) in race 10. His measured, pace-savvy riding style is a strong fit for Colonial's emphasis on tactical speed, especially in routes.

John Velazquez has several live mounts, including Beijing (4) in race 1, High Camp (5) in race 9, Kadabra (4) in race 8, Miss Authentic (5) in race 7, and Her Laugh (7) in race 6, and remains dangerous in any stakes event where he can put a horse into the race early without overdoing it. Julien Leparoux's patient style will be worth watching on Rolando (1) in race 5 and Runaway Diva (7) in race 7, particularly if the pace melts and closers start to have more success later in the day.

The regional standouts include Jevian Toledo, Sheldon Russell, and Xavier Perez, all of whom know the mid-Atlantic circuit extremely well and handle Colonial's dirt layout effectively. Riders like Toledo, on horses such as As The Bell Toles (3) in race 2 and Dazzling Dame (1) in race 8, can extract maximum value from good trip opportunities from inside draws.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brad Cox has a particularly powerful presence on this card, with key runners Ezum (6) in race 4, Dragoon Guard (6) in race 5, Chasten (6) in race 6, Hit Parade (2) in race 8, Confessional (8) in race 9, and potentially others, all placed in spots where improvement or top form is expected. Cox's horses typically show strong fitness and often respond positively to Irad Ortiz Jr.'s aggressive yet patient rides on big days.

Todd Pletcher sends a deep three-year-old contingent with Kadabra (4) and Baffle (6) in race 8 and Grittiness (2) and Epic Desire (3) in race 9, indicating a clear focus on capturing Oaks and Derby points here. His horses are usually well-schooled for two-turn routes and handle shipping well, making them reliable key contenders in exotics.

Bob Baffert's presence with marquee three-year-olds such as Bottle Of Rouge (3) in race 8 and Buetane (1) in race 9 underscores the national importance of these stakes. When Baffert ships for such spots, it usually signals serious intent and high class, especially if the horses have already shown graded-level talent.

Brittany Russell is a major regional force with strong win percentages and well-placed horses, including As The Bell Toles (3) in race 2, Mizner (2) in race 1, Naabaahii (7) in race 4, Raise Cain (5) in race 5, Sultry Lass (2) in race 7, and Dazzling Dame (1) in race 8. Her runners often offer good value, especially when not hammered at the windows like the national super-trainers' horses.

Other respected barns on the card include Saffie Joseph Jr. with Ramajay (5) in race 1 and Brown Sugar (5) and Eunomia (6) in the stakes races, Michael Stidham with Vino Bella (6), Cool Customer (1), and multiple stakes entrants, and Michael Trombetta with Virginia Gentry (2) and Maclean's Rook (7). Doug O'Neill, Riley Mott, Whit Beckman, Phil Schoenthal, and Niall Saville also contribute live runners that should not be ignored in multi-race bets.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

From a multi-race perspective, the early part of the card (races 1–4) offers a blend of small field maidens and one key favorite in Ezum (6) in race 4, making that race a potential single in daily doubles and early pick sequences. You could structure an early pick 4 using Ramajay (5) and Beijing (4) in race 1, As The Bell Toles (3) and Entitled Defense (1) in race 2, Overspent (6) and Hard Stance (2) in race 3, and singling Ezum (6) in race 4 for leverage.

The middle stakes (races 5–7) present opportunities for value if you can beat a single favorite in any one leg; for example, while Dragoon Guard (6) in race 5 and Chasten (6) in race 6 are deserving favorites, there could be overlays in horses like Raise Cain (5) in race 5 and Brown Sugar (5) in race 6. Using “A/B” ticket structures in pick 3 or pick 5 sequences, with Dragoon Guard (6) and Chasten (6) as As and Raise Cain (5), Brown Sugar (5), and Eunomia (6) in race 7 as Bs, can help balance cost and upside.

The late pick 4 (races 7–10) can be structured around key opinions in the Virginia Oaks and Virginia Derby. For example, you might use Eunomia (6) and Miss Authentic (5) in race 7, Hit Parade (2), Bottle Of Rouge (3), and Kadabra (4) in race 8, Buetane (1) and Confessional (8) as A-level horses with Grittiness (2) and Epic Desire (3) as backup B-level in race 9, and a spread of Freedom Road (6), Lure Him In (8), Steeze (2), and Cadeau D'argent (3) in race 10.

For intra-race exotic wagering, focus on constructing exactas and trifectas around the strongest favorites in each race while using value-oriented secondary choices and logical longshots underneath. In particular, consider:

Dazzling Dame (1) as a value exacta partner underneath Hit Parade (2) and Bottle Of Rouge (3) in race 8, especially if she drifts above a fair price.
Epic Desire (3) and Incredibolt (7) as price horses to include underneath Buetane (1) and Confessional (8) in trifectas and superfectas in race 9.
Cadeau D'argent (3) and Maclean's Rook (7) as mid-price options to boost payouts in race 10 exactas and trifectas, particularly if Freedom Road (6) and Lure Him In (8) go favored.

As always, monitor the tote for clues about live barns and overlays, and adjust your bet sizes to press strongest opinions (such as Ezum (6), Chasten (6), Hit Parade (2), and Buetane (1)) while using small saver tickets where uncertainty is higher.

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