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Del Mar presents an eight-race card this Friday afternoon, featuring a diverse mix of maiden races, allowance contests, and the stakes-level I’m Smokin Stakes for California-bred two-year-olds. The program begins at 3:00 PM Pacific Time with first post, offering racing enthusiasts a blend of dirt and turf action across various distances from five furlongs to one mile.
The card showcases several prominent trainer and jockey combinations, with notable representation from Bob Baffert, Doug O’Neill, Peter Miller, and John Sadler among the conditioning ranks. Jockey colonies feature seasoned veterans including Umberto Rispoli, Juan Hernandez, and Abel Lezcano, alongside rising talents throughout the afternoon’s competition.
Weather and Track Conditions
Friday’s racing will take place under ideal Southern California conditions, with sunny skies and temperatures reaching a high of 79 degrees Fahrenheit and an evening low of 67 degrees. The forecast calls for clear weather with minimal wind at 8 mph and virtually no chance of precipitation, creating optimal racing conditions for both horse and rider.
Current track conditions report the main dirt surface as fast, while the turf course maintains a firm rating with the rail positioned at 30 feet for turf contests. These conditions should favor speed and tactical positioning, particularly on the firm turf surface that typically rewards horses with tactical pace pressing abilities.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1: Maiden Claiming – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
This two-year-old maiden claimer for $50,000 opens the card with six runners competing for a $40,000 purse. The morning line favorite Jewlz at 2-1 represents trainer Peter Miller and jockey Kazushi Kimura, carrying 119 pounds after allowances. This Bee Jersey colt shows the lowest claiming tag adjustment, suggesting some perceived ability despite maiden status.
The Doug O’Neill-trained duo of H Q Wilson (4-1) with Edgar Maldonado and In the Mix (3-1) with Alessandro Fresu provides depth to the wagering pool. In the Mix, a son of Dialed In, represents the stable’s secondary option but carries full weight at 122 pounds. The distance appears well-suited for two-year-old development, though the claiming nature suggests these runners may possess limitations that have prevented earlier success.
Opus Uno for trainer Peter Miller represents a notable Vino Rosso offspring at 7-2 morning line odds under Ramon Silvera. The combination of Miller’s expertise with young horses and the distance specialist breeding pattern creates intrigue in this competitive opener.
Race 2: Allowance Optional Claiming – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
This $81,000 allowance optional claiming contest for three-year-old fillies over five furlongs on the turf presents a competitive field of eight runners, with the rail positioned at 30 feet. The race conditions allow fillies that have never won $21,000 once other than maiden, claiming, or starter races, or those that have never won two races, with an $80,000 claiming option available.
Morning Line Favorite Analysis
Comeback Girl (5-2) emerges as the tepid morning line choice under jockey Antonio Ayuso for trainer Leonard Powell. This Speightstown filly out of Secret Thoughts by War Front carries 121 pounds with the three-pound weight allowance for non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. The breeding pattern suggests tactical speed with stamina influence from both sire and broodmare sire, well-suited to the five-furlong turf distance. Powell’s modest stable adds intrigue, as connections may have found value in this spot.
Primary Contenders
Tight Squeeze (7-2) represents the John Sadler stable with Hector Berrios aboard, carrying full weight at 124 pounds. This Sir Prancealot (IRE) filly possesses European breeding influence that typically translates well to turf surfaces, particularly at shorter distances. Sadler’s expertise with turf horses and the filly’s international bloodlines create appeal, though the full weight assignment suggests connections view her as competitive without allowances.
Baela (4-1) brings significant stable power as a Bob Baffert trainee with Juan Hernandez in the irons. This City of Light filly benefits from the three-pound weight allowance, carrying just 121 pounds. The Baffert-Hernandez combination has shown consistent success, and City of Light offspring have demonstrated turf aptitude. The morning line odds may undervalue the stable’s assessment of this filly’s ability.
Young Love (5-1) rounds out the primary contenders for Peter Miller with Umberto Rispoli riding. This Grazen filly carries full weight at 124 pounds, suggesting connections believe she can compete effectively at the highest level of this condition. Miller’s success with turf sprinters and Rispoli’s tactical abilities create a formidable combination.
Secondary Contenders
How Lovely (IRE) (6-1) represents international breeding for Doug O’Neill with Alessandro Fresu aboard. This No Nay Never filly out of an Irish-bred mare carries full weight, indicating connections view her competitively despite the European breeding pattern that may require time to adapt to American racing conditions.
Prime and Ready (8-1) offers value consideration for Richard Baltas with Diego Herrera riding. This More Than Ready filly benefits from the three-pound allowance and represents a stable known for patient development of turf horses.
Pace Analysis
The five-furlong turf distance demands early positioning and sustained effort throughout. Comeback Girl figures to press the early pace with her Speightstown breeding, while Tight Squeeze’s Sir Prancealot bloodlines suggest tactical speed that could prove effective in the short sprint format.
Baela’s City of Light breeding typically produces horses with good gate speed, potentially creating early pressure scenarios. The firm turf conditions should favor horses with tactical pace and the ability to sustain their effort through the final furlong.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
The Sadler-Berrios pairing brings extensive turf experience, while Baffert-Hernandez represents proven success across all surfaces. Miller-Rispoli combines turf sprint expertise with tactical riding ability.
O’Neill’s entry with Fresu aboard represents a stable comfortable with international breeding patterns, though the combination may need time to gel with this particular filly’s style.
Wagering Recommendations
Win consideration: Baela offers value at 4-1 odds given the Baffert stable’s assessment and the three-pound weight advantage. The City of Light breeding pattern suits the distance and surface combination.
Place/Show angles: Tight Squeeze represents solid place value with Sadler’s turf expertise, while Comeback Girl’s morning line favoritism may create overlay opportunities in exotic wagers.
Exacta construction: Key Baela over Tight Squeeze and Young Love, while using Comeback Girl underneath those top choices.
The competitive nature of this allowance level creates opportunities for upset scenarios, particularly with several fillies carrying weight allowances that may prove decisive in the short turf sprint format.
Race 3: Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile (Dirt)
Nine runners contest this maiden claiming event over the classic one-mile distance, with claiming prices at $12,500 providing opportunities for connections seeking affordable racing prospects. The favorite Toppers At Seaside at 3-1 represents trainer Robert Hess Jr. and jockey Umberto Rispoli, carrying the three-year-old weight of 121 pounds.
Cano for the Win, another product of the George Papaprodromou stable, shows as the 7-2 second choice under Alessandro Fresu. This Omaha Beach colt benefits from the three-year-old weight allowance and represents a promising pedigree for the distance.
The mile journey allows for tactical development and pace scenario flexibility, with several runners showing breeding patterns suited to the classic distance. The claiming level suggests these horses may possess stamina questions or class limitations that have prevented success in higher-level competition.
Race 4: California-Bred Allowance Optional Claiming – 5 Furlongs (Turf)
This $81,000 allowance optional claiming contest restricted to California-bred or California-sired runners presents a competitive field of eight declared starters over five furlongs on the turf, with the rail positioned at 30 feet. The race conditions favor horses that have never won $21,000 once other than maiden, claiming, or starter races, or those that have never won two races, with a $20,000 claiming option available. The presence of multiple also-eligible entries indicates strong initial interest that may affect final field composition.
Morning Line Favorite Analysis
Glorious Life (5-2) emerges as the tepid morning line choice under jockey Kazushi Kimura for trainer Craig Gaines. This Vronsky colt out of Glorious Luck by Lucky J. H. carries 122 pounds and benefits from proven California breeding specifically designed for Golden State competition. The Vronsky sire line has shown consistent success with turf runners, while the Lucky J. H. broodmare sire adds tactical speed elements well-suited to the five-furlong distance. Gaines also enters Potito as a secondary option, suggesting the stable views this as a winnable spot.
Primary Contenders
Case Hit (3-1) represents significant stable power as a Peter Miller trainee with Umberto Rispoli aboard. This Frosted colt out of Stunning Ghost by Ghostzapper carries just 119 pounds with the two-pound allowance for non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. The breeding pattern combines Frosted’s proven turf aptitude with Ghostzapper’s class and durability, creating an appealing package for the distance and surface combination. Miller’s expertise with turf sprinters and Rispoli’s tactical abilities form a formidable partnership that has shown consistent success in similar conditions.
Check’s On the Way (6-1) brings intrigue as a Mrazek colt under Juan Hernandez for trainer Simon Callaghan. Carrying 121 pounds as a three-year-old, this runner benefits from the weight break while representing a trainer known for patient development of turf horses. The Mrazek breeding line has shown particular effectiveness on firm turf surfaces, which aligns with current track conditions.
Frank Bullitt (6-1) offers value consideration as a Grazen colt with Tyler Baze riding for trainer David Winick. This runner carries just 119 pounds with allowances, representing excellent value in the competitive allowance ranks. Grazen offspring have demonstrated consistent turf form, particularly at shorter distances where tactical speed proves effective.
Secondary Contenders
Andtheomofthebrave (5-1) provides depth to the wagering pool as an Om colt under Alessandro Fresu for trainer Steve Knapp. The Om breeding line has produced several successful California-bred turf runners, though the 122-pound assignment suggests connections view this horse as competitive without significant weight relief.
Potito (6-1) represents Craig Gaines’ secondary option with Diego Herrera riding. This Grazen colt carries 122 pounds and provides stable depth alongside the favored Glorious Life, creating potential exacta combinations for the Gaines barn.
Also-Eligible Analysis
The presence of three also-eligible entries creates wagering complexity and potential field changes. Cullen J (6-1) for Richard Baltas with Hector Berrios deserves particular attention, as this Sir Prancealot colt carries just 119 pounds and represents a stable known for turf success. Grazed (6-1) provides Peter Miller with a secondary option alongside Case Hit, suggesting the stable views this race as particularly attractive.
Pace Analysis
The five-furlong turf sprint demands early positioning and sustained effort throughout. Case Hit figures to show early speed with his Frosted breeding, while Glorious Life’s Vronsky bloodlines suggest tactical pace pressing ability. The firm turf conditions should favor horses with good gate speed and the ability to sustain their effort through the final furlong.
Check’s On the Way’s Mrazek breeding typically produces horses that benefit from patient riding, potentially setting up a closing scenario if early pace proves honest. Frank Bullitt’s Grazen breeding suggests tactical versatility that could prove effective depending on how the race unfolds.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
The Miller-Rispoli pairing brings extensive turf sprint experience and proven success in similar conditions. Their tactical approach typically involves positioning horses for sustained drives rather than relying purely on early speed. The Gaines stable’s dual entry creates interesting strategic considerations, with both runners capable of setting up tactical scenarios.
Callaghan’s patient approach with turf horses and Hernandez’s tactical abilities create appeal for Check’s On the Way, particularly if the race sets up for closers. The Baltas-Berrios combination among also-eligibles represents proven turf expertise that could factor significantly if Cullen J gains entry.
California Breeding Considerations
The California-bred restriction provides opportunities for regional runners that might face stiffer competition in open company. Many of these horses possess breeding specifically designed for Golden State conditions, with proven sire lines like Grazen, Frosted, and Sir Prancealot showing consistent success with California-bred offspring.
The $20,000 claiming option creates additional strategic considerations, as connections must balance competitive desires against asset protection. Horses entered for the claiming price compete for a reduced purse of $46,000, though this typically indicates confidence in the runner’s immediate prospects.
Wagering Recommendations
Win consideration: Case Hit offers excellent value at 3-1 odds given the Miller-Rispoli combination and the significant two-pound weight advantage. The Frosted breeding pattern suits both distance and surface.
Place/Show angles: Glorious Life represents solid place value despite favoritism, while Frank Bullitt’s 6-1 odds may create overlay opportunities with the weight relief and proven Grazen breeding.
Exacta construction: Key Case Hit over Glorious Life and Check’s On the Way, while using Frank Bullitt underneath top choices for value scenarios.
Trifecta considerations: The competitive nature of this allowance level creates opportunities for upset scenarios, particularly with several horses carrying significant weight allowances.
The presence of also-eligible entries requires monitoring of potential field changes, as late scratches could significantly alter pace dynamics and wagering values. The firm turf surface and ideal weather conditions should create consistent racing circumstances that favor tactical positioning and sustained effort throughout the five-furlong journey.
Race 5: Fillies and Mares Allowance Optional Claiming – 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
This $81,000 allowance optional claiming contest for fillies and mares three years old and upward over six and one-half furlongs presents a competitive field of ten runners. The race conditions allow horses that have never won $21,000 once other than maiden, claiming, or starter races, or those that have never won two races, with a $50,000 claiming option that reduces the purse to $67,000 for claimed horses. The distance provides an ideal test of speed and stamina, requiring tactical positioning and sustained effort through the final quarter-mile.
Morning Line Favorite Analysis
Usha (2-1) emerges as the prohibitive morning line choice for the powerful Bob Baffert stable with Juan Hernandez aboard. This Tiz the Law filly out of Animal Appeal by Leroidesanimaux carries just 119 pounds with the two-pound allowance for non-winners of a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter. The breeding pattern combines Tiz the Law’s proven class with international influence from the Brazilian broodmare sire, creating a promising package for the allowance level. The Baffert-Hernandez combination has shown consistent success throughout the meet, and the significant weight advantage may prove decisive in this competitive spot.
Primary Contenders
Dare to Fly (4-1) represents the Phil D’Amato stable with Umberto Rispoli riding, carrying the same advantageous 119-pound assignment. This Daredevil filly out of Dee Dee Bertie by Bluegrass Cat possesses tactical versatility that could prove crucial in the competitive allowance ranks. Daredevil offspring have demonstrated consistent success at intermediate distances, while the Bluegrass Cat influence adds stamina components well-suited to the six and one-half furlong journey. D’Amato’s expertise with fillies and mares creates additional appeal.
Artisma (5-1) brings depth to the wagering pool for trainer Richard Baltas with Abel Lezcano in the irons. This Munnings filly out of Chausie by Bluegrass Cat benefits from the same two-pound weight allowance, carrying 119 pounds. The Munnings breeding typically produces horses with tactical speed and finishing ability, while the Bluegrass Cat influence provides stamina for the demanding distance. Baltas has shown consistent success with developing fillies at this level.
Secondary Contenders
Jensco (8-1) offers value consideration as a Gormley filly under Hector Berrios for trainer John Shirreffs. Carrying 122 pounds as a three-year-old without allowances, this runner represents a stable known for patient development and tactical positioning. The Gormley breeding pattern suggests versatility across surfaces and distances.
Showers (12-1) provides Baffert with a secondary option under Kazushi Kimura. This Ghostzapper filly out of Everything by Curlin carries 119 pounds and represents exceptional breeding for the distance and class level. The combination of Ghostzapper’s proven stamina influence with Curlin’s class creates intrigue despite the longer odds.
Lucky Burglar (20-1) represents the longest shot in the field as a Cat Burglar filly with William Antongeorgi III riding for trainer Salvador Campo. Carrying full weight at 124 pounds as an older mare, this runner faces a significant class test but offers exotic wagering value.
Pace Analysis
The six and one-half furlong distance demands tactical positioning from the start, with early speed playing a significant role in the outcome. Usha figures to show early pace with her Tiz the Law breeding, while Dare to Fly’s Daredevil bloodlines suggest tactical speed that could prove effective in pressing scenarios.
Artisma’s Munnings breeding typically produces horses with good gate speed and the ability to sustain effort, potentially creating early pressure. The fast dirt surface should favor horses with tactical pace and finishing ability, with the final quarter-mile likely determining the outcome.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
The Baffert-Hernandez pairing brings proven success across all levels of competition, with particular strength in allowance contests. Their dual entry creates strategic considerations, though Usha appears to represent the stable’s primary option based on breeding and morning line assessment.
D’Amato’s partnership with Rispoli combines tactical expertise with proven success in similar conditions. The trainer’s patient approach with fillies and mares aligns well with the jockey’s tactical abilities, creating appeal for Dare to Fly.
Baltas-Lezcano represents consistent success in allowance competition, with both connections showing expertise in developing horses at this competitive level.
Breeding Considerations
The presence of multiple Tiz the Law, Daredevil, and Munnings offspring creates interesting breeding angles for the distance and surface combination. Tiz the Law has shown particular effectiveness with fillies at intermediate distances, while Daredevil offspring have demonstrated tactical versatility.
The international breeding influence through Leroidesanimaux and other foreign broodmare sires adds depth to several pedigrees, potentially providing stamina components crucial for the demanding six and one-half furlong journey.
Weight Distribution Analysis
Three horses benefit from the two-pound allowance, carrying just 119 pounds: Usha, Dare to Fly, and Artisma. This significant weight advantage could prove decisive in the competitive allowance level, particularly over the demanding distance that tests both speed and stamina.
The claiming option at $50,000 creates strategic considerations, as connections must balance competitive desires against asset protection. No horses appear entered for the claiming price, suggesting connections view their runners as valuable racing prospects.
Wagering Recommendations
Win consideration: Dare to Fly offers excellent value at 4-1 odds given the D’Amato-Rispoli combination and the two-pound weight advantage. The Daredevil breeding pattern suits the distance and competitive level.
Place/Show angles: Usha represents solid place value despite heavy favoritism, while Artisma’s 5-1 odds may create overlay opportunities with the weight relief and proven Munnings breeding.
Exacta construction: Key Dare to Fly over Usha and Artisma, while using the Baffert secondary option Showers underneath for value scenarios.
Trifecta considerations: Jensco offers value in deeper exotic wagers at 8-1 odds, representing the respected Shirreffs stable with proven breeding for the distance.
Race 6: Two-Year-Old Filly Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile (Turf)
This $80,000 maiden special weight contest for two-year-old fillies over one mile on turf presents one of the most challenging tests on the card. The demanding distance requires exceptional breeding, conditioning, and tactical execution for juvenile fillies making their debut or seeking their maiden victory. With ten declared starters and four also-eligible entries, field composition remains fluid, creating strategic considerations for connections and handicappers alike. The rail positioned at 30 feet provides additional tactical complexity for the one-mile journey.
Morning Line Favorite Analysis
Yurak (7-2) emerges as the morning line choice for trainer John Sadler with jockey Hector Berrios aboard. This Tapit filly out of Yawkey Way by Grand Slam represents exceptional breeding for the distance and surface combination. Tapit has established himself as one of North America’s premier sire influences for turf racing, particularly at classic distances where stamina and class prove decisive. The Grand Slam broodmare sire adds tactical speed elements that complement Tapit’s distance aptitude. Sadler’s expertise in developing young turf horses and the Berrios partnership creates significant appeal, though the morning line odds reflect competitive depth in this maiden contest.
Primary Contenders
Counterbalance (4-1) represents the Michael McCarthy stable with Kazushi Kimura riding, carrying 122 pounds in this competitive spot. This Caravaggio filly out of Out of Balance by Kitten’s Joy possesses breeding that screams turf success at the one-mile distance. Caravaggio has shown consistent success with fillies on grass surfaces, while the Kitten’s Joy influence provides proven turf stamina that could prove decisive in the demanding journey. McCarthy’s patient approach with young horses and Kimura’s tactical abilities create a formidable combination.
Cortina d’Amprezzo (IRE) (5-1) brings international breeding influence for trainer Phil D’Amato with Umberto Rispoli aboard. This Lucky Vega filly out of Reflect Alexander by Kodiac represents European bloodlines specifically designed for turf competition. The Lucky Vega sire line has shown effectiveness with fillies, while the Kodiac influence adds tactical speed components. D’Amato’s success with European-bred runners and Rispoli’s tactical expertise create appeal despite the challenging maiden debut over the demanding distance.
Also-Eligible Analysis
The presence of four also-eligible entries creates significant wagering complexity and potential field changes. Hypergamy (3-1) represents the strongest also-eligible as an American Pharoah filly for Doug O’Neill with Juan Hernandez riding. American Pharoah has established consistent success with fillies on turf surfaces, and the O’Neill-Hernandez combination brings proven stakes-level expertise. If this filly gains entry, she would likely assume favoritism based on breeding and connections.
Super Corredora (4-1) provides John Sadler with a potential secondary option alongside Yurak. This Gun Runner filly represents classic American breeding with Hector Berrios riding, creating strategic considerations for the stable’s approach to this competitive maiden contest.
Secondary Contenders
Radiant View (6-1) offers value consideration as a Caravaggio filly for Simon Callaghan with Alessandro Fresu aboard. The breeding pattern mirrors Counterbalance’s appeal, suggesting Caravaggio offspring possess particular effectiveness in this type of contest. Callaghan’s expertise with international breeding patterns adds intrigue.
Rabid Response (8-1) represents the Richard Baltas stable as a Maxfield filly with Diego Herrera riding. Maxfield has shown early promise as a young sire, and Baltas possesses proven expertise in developing young turf horses at competitive levels.
Bourbon Story (8-1) brings Robert Hess Jr. together with jockey Mike Smith as a Liam’s Map filly. The Smith partnership adds tactical expertise, while Liam’s Map breeding suggests versatility across surfaces and distances.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile turf distance creates complex pace scenarios, with early positioning proving crucial for the extended journey. Yurak’s Tapit breeding suggests tactical positioning rather than early speed, while Counterbalance’s Caravaggio bloodlines indicate potential pace pressing ability.
The firm turf surface should favor horses with sustained stamina and tactical speed, with the final quarter-mile likely determining the outcome. International breeding patterns among several entries suggest tactical approaches that may require patient riding through the early stages.
Breeding Considerations
The presence of multiple international influences creates breeding angles for the demanding distance. Tapit, Caravaggio, Lucky Vega, and American Pharoah represent proven turf sire influences, while broodmare sires like Kitten’s Joy, Grand Slam, and Kodiac add complementary stamina and tactical elements.
Two-year-old fillies competing over one mile on turf face exceptional challenges, requiring precocious development and classic breeding patterns. The maiden special weight conditions suggest connections view their runners as possessing significant ability worthy of development at the highest levels.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
Sadler’s expertise with young turf horses and the Berrios partnership brings proven success in similar conditions. The potential for dual representation with Super Corredora creates strategic considerations depending on final field composition.
McCarthy-Kimura represents consistent success with developing horses, while D’Amato-Rispoli combines international breeding expertise with tactical riding ability. The O’Neill-Hernandez combination among also-eligibles would bring stakes-level experience to this competitive maiden contest.
Wagering Recommendations
Win consideration: Counterbalance offers excellent value at 4-1 odds given the McCarthy-Kimura combination and proven Caravaggio breeding for turf fillies. The Kitten’s Joy broodmare sire influence adds crucial stamina components.
Place/Show angles: Yurak represents solid place value despite favoritism, while Cortina d’Amprezzo’s international breeding may create overlay opportunities if American bettors undervalue European influence.
Exacta construction: Key Counterbalance over Yurak and potential also-eligible Hypergamy, while using Cortina d’Amprezzo underneath top choices for value scenarios.
Field composition considerations: Monitor also-eligible entries carefully, as Hypergamy’s potential inclusion could significantly alter both pace dynamics and wagering values. The competitive maiden level creates opportunities for upset scenarios with proper breeding patterns.
Race 7: I’m Smokin Stakes – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
The afternoon’s featured event brings together eight California-bred or California-sired two-year-olds in the $100,000 I’m Smokin Stakes over five and one-half furlongs on the dirt. This Golden State Series-eligible contest represents a significant step up in class for regional juveniles, with connections paying $1,500 to start plus initial nomination fees. The race structure favors high weights with allowances available for non-winners of $50,000 other than maiden or claiming races, creating strategic weight distribution across the competitive field.
Morning Line Favorite Analysis
Sammy Davis (5-2) emerges as the morning line choice for trainer John Sadler with jockey Hector Berrios aboard. This Sir Prancealot (IRE) colt out of Ready for Romance by More Than Ready carries the full 124 pounds, indicating connections view him as the class of the field despite the weight disadvantage. The breeding pattern combines European tactical speed from Sir Prancealot with proven American stamina influence from More Than Ready, creating an ideal package for the five and one-half furlong distance. Sadler’s expertise with developing stakes-caliber two-year-olds and the Berrios partnership brings proven success to this competitive spot.
Primary Contenders
Thirsty Rebel (3-1) represents the powerful Doug O’Neill stable with Abel Lezcano riding, carrying 121 pounds with weight relief. This Stay Thirsty colt out of Argyle Pink by Sky Mesa benefits from a three-pound allowance while representing a trainer with extensive two-year-old stakes experience. The Stay Thirsty breeding typically produces precocious runners with tactical speed, while the Sky Mesa influence adds stamina components well-suited to the demanding distance. O’Neill’s triple representation in this field suggests significant confidence in his juvenile crop.
Saul Elliott (4-1) provides O’Neill with his secondary option under Alessandro Fresu, carrying 121 pounds. This Listing colt out of Cryptic by Indian Charlie represents tactical breeding that should prove effective in stakes competition. The Listing sire line has shown consistent success with California-bred runners, while the Indian Charlie influence adds proven stamina for the distance.
Max Ciao (5-1) offers value consideration as a Maxfield colt with Antonio Ayuso riding for trainer Steve Knapp. Carrying 121 pounds, this runner represents exciting young sire Maxfield’s first major stakes representation in California. The Maxfield breeding suggests class and tactical versatility, while the Flatter broodmare sire adds proven stakes influence.
Secondary Contenders
Pavlovian (6-1) rounds out O’Neill’s powerful trio with Umberto Rispoli aboard. This Pavel colt out of Mandy’s Grace by Bellamy Road carries 121 pounds and represents the stable’s depth at the two-year-old level. The Pavel breeding line has shown early promise as a young sire.
Desert Dawg (15-1) offers longshot value as a Stay Thirsty colt for trainer Alex Farias with Kyle Frey riding. Carrying just 119 pounds with maximum allowances, this runner could provide exotic wagering value if the race develops favorably.
Another Bulleit (12-1) brings unique breeding as an I’ll Have Another colt with Mirco Demuro aboard for trainer Paul Capestro. The 119-pound assignment with weight relief creates appeal for upset scenarios.
Fionello (15-1) represents Steve Knapp’s secondary option as a Stay Thirsty colt with Ramon Silvera riding. The equipment notation suggests tactical adjustments that could prove effective at longer odds.
Pace Analysis
The five and one-half furlong distance demands early positioning and sustained effort throughout the sprint journey. Sammy Davis figures to show tactical speed with his Sir Prancealot breeding, while the multiple Stay Thirsty offspring should create early pace pressure. Thirsty Rebel’s breeding suggests pressing ability that could prove effective against the favorite.
Max Ciao’s Maxfield breeding typically produces horses with good gate speed and finishing ability, potentially setting up closing scenarios if early pace proves honest. The fast dirt surface should favor horses with tactical pace and the ability to sustain their effort through the final quarter-mile.
Trainer and Jockey Combinations
O’Neill’s triple representation with Lezcano, Fresu, and Rispoli creates fascinating strategic considerations for the stable. The trainer’s proven success with two-year-old development and stakes placement suggests confidence in multiple runners reaching this competitive level.
Sadler’s partnership with Berrios brings extensive stakes experience and tactical expertise. The combination has shown consistent success with California-bred runners at the highest levels of Golden State Series competition.
Knapp’s dual entry with Ayuso and Silvera provides depth and tactical options, while the equipment changes on Fionello suggest aggressive approaches to improvement.
Golden State Series Considerations
The California-bred restriction creates opportunities for regional runners that might face stiffer competition in open stakes company. Many of these horses possess breeding specifically designed for Golden State conditions, with proven sire lines like Stay Thirsty, Sir Prancealot, and Maxfield showing early success with California-bred offspring.
The $50,000 supplement option for non-Golden State Series eligible horses creates additional strategic considerations, though all current entries appear to be series-eligible based on their California breeding.
Weight Distribution Analysis
Sammy Davis carries the highest weight at 124 pounds, reflecting his perceived class advantage despite the burden. Three horses benefit from three-pound allowances at 121 pounds: Thirsty Rebel, Saul Elliott, Max Ciao, Fionello, and Pavlovian. Two runners carry maximum relief at 119 pounds: Desert Dawg and Another Bulleit.
The weight distribution creates interesting strategic scenarios, with proven class facing lighter-weighted developing prospects in competitive stakes action.
Wagering Recommendations
Win consideration: Thirsty Rebel offers excellent value at 3-1 odds given the O’Neill stable’s confidence and the three-pound weight advantage. The Stay Thirsty breeding pattern suits the distance and competitive level.
Place/Show angles: Sammy Davis represents solid place value despite carrying high weight, while Max Ciao’s 5-1 odds may create overlay opportunities with exciting Maxfield breeding and proven connections.
Exacta construction: Key Thirsty Rebel over Sammy Davis and Saul Elliott, while using Max Ciao underneath for value scenarios with the O’Neill stable’s multiple entries.
Trifecta considerations: Pavlovian offers value in deeper exotic wagers at 6-1 odds as O’Neill’s third option, while the weight relief runners Desert Dawg and Another Bulleit provide longshot appeal for creative exotic construction.
The competitive nature of this stakes level creates opportunities for upset scenarios, particularly with multiple horses carrying significant weight advantages over the morning line favorite. The fast dirt surface and ideal weather conditions should create consistent racing circumstances that favor tactical positioning and sustained effort through the demanding five and one-half furlong sprint journey.
O’Neill’s triple representation suggests the stable views this as a particularly winnable spot, with tactical options available depending on pace development and positioning scenarios throughout the field.
Race 8: California-Bred Maiden Special Weight – 1 Mile (Turf)
The card concludes with California-bred fillies and mares competing in a $80,000 maiden special weight over the demanding one-mile turf distance. We the Hobby shows as the 4-1 morning line choice for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Kazushi Kimura.
Penny Worth draws support at 7-2 odds for trainer Phil D’Amato with Juan Hernandez aboard. The Tough Sunday breeding provides stamina influence that could prove crucial over the mile journey.
Ridegold at 9-2 morning line odds represents trainer Chris Lewis and jockey Hector Berrios. This Clubhouse Ride filly benefits from the distance and surface combination that suits her breeding pattern.
The California-bred restriction and maiden special weight conditions create opportunities for connections to showcase developing talent while competing for meaningful purse distribution.
