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Del Mar returns to action on Saturday, November 22, 2025, following recent weather-related cancellations that disrupted the Bing Crosby Season schedule. The nine-race card features the Grade III Native Diver Stakes as the centerpiece, along with a strong mix of maiden and claiming races that should provide numerous wagering opportunities for handicappers.

The track has experienced unseasonable wet weather in recent weeks, with races cancelled on November 14 and November 21 due to heavy rain that brought approximately 1.5 inches of precipitation to the seaside facility. Racing resumed on November 16 after track crews worked diligently to restore racing conditions. Today’s card marks a return to normalcy as Del Mar heads into the final stretch of its fall meet, which concludes on November 30.

Weather and Track Conditions

Saturday’s forecast calls for improving conditions after the recent Pacific storm system moved through the area. The morning shows cloudy skies with a slight chance of showers before 10:00 AM, gradually becoming mostly sunny with a high near 64 degrees. Northeast winds around 5 mph will become calm during racing hours. No precipitation is expected during the racing program, with mostly clear skies anticipated for the evening.

The main track is expected to be listed as fast, having had sufficient time to dry since the last rain on November 21. Track Superintendent Dennis Moore sealed the track during the storm and opened it back up once conditions permitted. With clear weather forecasted and no turf racing scheduled, all nine races will be contested on the main dirt surface.

Temperature conditions will be ideal for racing, with afternoon highs in the mid-60s and light winds creating comfortable conditions for horses and connections. The coastal location typically provides moderate temperatures in late November, favoring horses that handle typical Southern California racing conditions.

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Del Mar’s main track has shown a pronounced speed bias during the current fall meet. Analysis of races from October 30 through November 16 reveals that early speed horses have dominated, particularly in sprint races. At 5.5 furlongs, wire-to-wire winners accounted for 38% of races, while at 6.5 furlongs, front-runners won at a 50% clip.

Inside post positions have provided a distinct advantage during the meet, especially for horses with tactical speed. Posts 1-4 have produced the highest win rates in dirt sprints, allowing speed types to secure favorable positions without expending excessive early energy. The rail and inside draws reward horses that can establish position and save ground through the turns.

In dirt routes, the bias has shifted even more dramatically toward speed. Front-runners won 56% of route races analyzed during the fall meet, a significant turnaround from 2023 when stalkers and closers performed better. This pace-favoring profile differs from the summer meet and should be factored into handicapping today’s card.

The speed bias creates clear implications for wagering strategy. Horses with early speed drawn inside should receive extra consideration, while deep closers face an uphill battle unless pace scenarios become exceptionally fast. Handicappers should give additional weight to horses positioned to secure favorable stalking trips within 2-3 lengths of the leaders.

Race 1

Post Time: 12:30 PM

Maiden claiming fillies, two years old, one mile dirt, purse $24,000, claiming price $32,000

Pace Analysis

This maiden claiming heat figures to develop moderate early fractions with multiple fillies showing some early speed in their limited starts. Bear’s Board and McKenna Moon have shown the most pronounced early speed in their debuts, suggesting they will contest the early lead. Can’t Say That has displayed tactical speed and should secure a ground-saving stalking position from the rail. The stretch to two turns for the first time may compromise some of the pure sprinters, creating opportunities for fillies that can sustain their runs.

Expected fractions should be reasonable given the inexperience level and maiden claiming class, likely producing honest but not suicidal early splits. The race shape favors horses with tactical speed that can rate comfortably in the early stages before making their moves entering the stretch. With several fillies trying the distance for the first time, stamina will be tested in the final furlong.

Key Contenders

Can’t Say That emerges as the most logical choice based on consistent form and favorable post position. The Vino Rosso filly has shown steady improvement through three starts for trainer George Papaprodromou, including a fourth-place finish when stretched to 6.5 furlongs. The step up to a mile fits her breeding profile, as Vino Rosso offspring perform well when stretched out, recording a 17% win rate in route races. Drawing the rail provides a crucial advantage on a speed-favoring track, allowing jockey Umberto Rispoli to tuck into a ground-saving stalking position behind the expected pace duel. The class drop to maiden claiming should put her competitive with this field, and her tactical speed style fits the current track bias.

Definitely Prbable brings intriguing credentials despite failing to hit the board in four starts. The Improbable filly trains with Michael McCarthy and shows a pedigree suited for today’s distance. Improbable gets a strong 22% win rate with route runners, suggesting the stretch to a mile should help. Her recent efforts have shown gradual improvement, and the class drop to maiden claiming $32,000 represents a significant relief in competition. With Kazushi Kimura riding, she should get a patient trip and could benefit from horses tiring in front.

Secondary Choices

Bear’s Board makes her third start for the powerful Doug O’Neill barn and has finished second twice from four attempts. The Mastery filly likely heads straight to the lead with Antonio Fresu aboard, seeking to establish command early and try to hold on late. Stretching out to two turns for the first time presents a question mark, but her breeding suggests she should handle the distance. The main concern centers on whether she can maintain her speed throughout the mile after contested early fractions.

Jewlz adds intrigue as a Peter Miller trainee dropping into maiden claiming ranks. Miller has maintained a strong presence at Del Mar throughout the meet, and his horses typically arrive ready to fire. The outside post creates tactical challenges, but if she can secure a stalking position without racing too wide, she could be a factor late. Look for Ricardo Gonzalez to hustle her into contention early.

Betting Strategy

Can’t Say That represents solid win bet value at morning line odds of 2-1, offering the best combination of class, post position, and running style for today’s track conditions. In exacta and trifecta wagers, structure tickets around Can’t Say That on top with Bear’s Board, Definitely Prbable, and Jewlz filling the second and third positions.

An attractive approach involves playing Can’t Say That in exacta boxes with both Bear’s Board and Definitely Prbable, then adding deeper coverage in trifectas by including Jewlz. Consider a modest win bet on Can’t Say That paired with exactas and trifectas to maximize value if the top choice delivers.

Selections

Win: Can’t Say That

Place: Definitely Prbable

Show: Bear’s Board

Race 2

Post Time: 1:02 PM

Claiming, three years old and upward, one mile dirt, purse $18,000, claiming price $10,000

Pace Analysis

The pace dynamics suggest modest early fractions with several horses likely pressing forward. Nobel Gary and Toppers At Seaside both show early speed tendencies and should contest the early lead. Majestic Palisades has displayed frontrunning ability in recent starts and may also factor into the early battle. The moderate pace should set up well for horses with tactical speed that can sit a stalking trip before making their bids.

City of Angels possesses versatile tactical speed and should secure an ideal tracking position from post 3. His running style allows him to adapt to various pace scenarios, whether rating off the pace or engaging in early positioning battles. The mile distance favors horses that can sustain their efforts, and with several front-runners likely going at each other early, the setup could benefit horses sitting just off the leaders.

Key Contenders

City of Angels stands out as the most probable winner based on class, consistency, and trainer ability. The five-year-old gelding has faced significantly tougher competition in recent starts, including multiple allowance and optional claiming races against better horses. Dropping down to the $10,000 claiming level represents a substantial class relief that should make him formidable against today’s rivals. Trainer Mike Puype has been sharp during the meet with a 25% win rate, and Kazushi Kimura provides competent handling from the saddle.

City of Angels has demonstrated tactical versatility, showing the ability to stalk or press the pace depending on race dynamics. His best efforts have come at Del Mar, suggesting comfort with the surface and surroundings. The gelding’s recent form shows consistency with multiple placings against tougher, and the drop in class should allow him to dominate these cheaper rivals. With a favorable post position and tactical speed, he checks multiple boxes for this competitive claiming heat.

Typhoon Tommy offers value as a potential upset candidate making just his fourth start. The three-year-old gelding ships in from turf races but has shown enough early speed to be competitive on dirt. Trainer Brian Koriner has a decent winning percentage at the meet, and the addition of Umberto Rispoli, currently leading the jockey standings, adds appeal. At morning line odds of 3-1, he could offer value if he takes to the main track.

Secondary Choices

Gentlemen’s Club brings experience with 23 career starts and legitimate form against this level of competition. The four-year-old gelding has hit the board 11 times from 23 attempts, showing the consistency to factor in most races. Diego Herrera takes the mount for trainer Craig Anthony Lewis, and a stalking trip from the inside post could pay dividends. His recent fourth-place finish at Santa Anita suggests he remains competitive at this level.

Naismith adds veteran presence with 34 career starts and multiple route victories to his credit. The seven-year-old gelding ran second at this level most recently at Santa Anita and should appreciate returning to a track where he has shown competence. Kyle Frey rides for trainer Robert Hess Jr., and if the pace gets contentious up front, his closing kick could be dangerous late.

Betting Strategy

City of Angels merits strong win consideration at his morning line odds of 5-2. His class advantage over this field should prove decisive, and the post position provides flexibility for Kimura to secure an ideal trip. Structure exacta wagers with City of Angels on top over Typhoon Tommy, Gentlemen’s Club, and Naismith to capture different outcomes.

In deeper exotics, consider using City of Angels as a single in the exacta top position, then spreading underneath with multiple contenders. Trifectas should include City of Angels on top with broad coverage in the second and third slots, incorporating Typhoon Tommy, Gentlemen’s Club, Naismith, and perhaps Toppers At Seaside.

Selections

Win: City of Angels

Place: Typhoon Tommy

Show: Gentlemen’s Club

Race 3

Post Time: 1:32 PM

Maiden claiming colts and geldings, two years old, one mile dirt, purse $33,000, claiming price $50,000

Pace Analysis

This maiden claiming contest for colts should develop honest early fractions with multiple horses showing speed in their limited starts. King of Success has demonstrated early speed in his two starts at Santa Anita, while Another Juanito pressed the pace in his debut. The combination of inexperience and the mile distance creates uncertainty about which horses will maintain position throughout.

Kid Charlemagne brings tactical speed that should allow him to secure a favorable stalking position. The gelding has shown versatility in his running style, adapting to different pace scenarios. With Umberto Rispoli riding, expect intelligent pace management that positions him to strike when opportunities arise entering the stretch. The reasonable early pace should benefit horses with tactical speed over pure speed burners.

Key Contenders

Kid Charlemagne appears best positioned to break his maiden based on experience, breeding, and jockey upgrade. The Jonathan Thomas trainee has started three times, showing improvement with a third-place finish at one mile on turf most recently. The switch to dirt could unlock improvement, as his breeding suggests surface versatility. His sire has produced capable dirt runners, and the gelding’s tactical speed fits perfectly with the current track bias favoring forwardly placed runners.

Umberto Rispoli takes over riding duties, a significant upgrade that should provide expert handling. The leading jockey at the current meet brings tactical acumen and timing that could make the difference in a competitive maiden race. Drawing post 3 provides positional flexibility, allowing Rispoli to secure the desired trip without burning energy fighting for position. The $50,000 claiming price represents appropriate class level for this son of a stakes-winning sire.

Another Juanito offers strong value at morning line odds of 5-2 as the probable favorite. The Victor Garcia trainee showed promise in his debut with a second-place finish before following with a fourth. The colt demonstrated tactical speed in both starts, suggesting ability to rate behind the pace. His breeding by a proven sire adds appeal, and Armando Ayuso provides competent handling. If he handles the mile distance, he rates a significant threat.

Secondary Choices

Classico enters for the powerful Doug O’Neill stable, making his fourth career start. The Antonio Fresu mount has shown gradual progression through three races, including a close fourth at one mile on turf. The barn’s success rate suggests readiness, and switching to the main track could trigger improvement. Classico’s late-running style could benefit from horses tiring in front, particularly if the pace gets heated early.

Kiki Ride represents an intriguing longshot for trainer Craig Anthony Lewis. The gelding has failed to hit the board in four starts but keeps finding tougher spots. The class drop to maiden claiming could provide the relief needed to break through. Kimura rides, and from post 4, he should secure a decent stalking trip. At longer odds, he offers trifecta and superfecta value if the race sets up favorably.

Betting Strategy

Kid Charlemagne deserves win bet consideration at morning line odds of 2-1, offering fair value for a horse with multiple advantages including jockey, post position, and tactical speed. Structure exacta wagers with Kid Charlemagne over Another Juanito and Classico to cover the most likely outcomes.

For deeper exotic plays, key Kid Charlemagne in the top position of exactas and trifectas, then spread to Another Juanito, Classico, and King of Success in the second and third slots. A small trifecta including Kiki Ride in the third position could return solid value if he runs his race.

Selections

Win: Kid Charlemagne

Place: Another Juanito

Show: Classico

Race 4

Post Time: 2:02 PM

Maiden claiming fillies and mares, three years old and upward, 6.5 furlongs dirt, purse $20,000, claiming price $20,000

Pace Analysis

This sprint for older maiden fillies and mares should produce contested early fractions with multiple speed types seeking the lead. Aloha Dreamin brings tactical speed from the outside post, while Divine Wind and Tupelo figure to press forward early. The pace battle could become significant, potentially setting up a late-running closer if fractions get too fast.

The 6.5-furlong distance on Del Mar’s main track typically favors speed and forwardly placed runners, particularly given the current track bias. Horses breaking from inside posts should enjoy distinct advantages, as the run to the first turn is relatively short. Fillies that can establish position early without excessive energy expenditure project as the most dangerous contenders.

Key Contenders

Moonlit Courage rates as a strong win candidate based on trainer, breeding, and recent form. The Richard Mandella-trained filly makes her fourth career start and has shown consistent progression, including a close fourth-place finish in her most recent outing. Mandella’s success rate at Del Mar and ability to bring horses to peak form makes any horse from his barn dangerous. The filly’s breeding by Omaha Beach suggests she should handle today’s distance comfortably.

Kazushi Kimura takes the mount, providing competent handling from post 4. The middle draw allows tactical flexibility without forcing aggressive early moves. Moonlit Courage has demonstrated the ability to rate behind horses, suggesting she can adapt to different pace scenarios. If the speed types engage in early battles, her closing kick could be potent in the stretch. The class level fits her profile, and continued progression points toward a breakthrough performance.

Divine Wind brings instant attention as a Doug O’Neill trainee making her third start. The stable’s strong meet and success with maiden fillies creates optimism. Antonio Fresu rides for connections that excel with this demographic. Her recent efforts suggest readiness to take the next step forward, and the sprint distance should suit her speed-oriented style. Drawing post 2 provides a clean break to the first turn.

Secondary Choices

Tupelo represents trainer Michael McCarthy and jockey Ricardo Gonzalez, both proven winners at the meet. The three-year-old filly makes her third start and could benefit from added experience and maturity. McCarthy’s training style typically brings steady improvement, and if Tupelo can establish favorable position from the rail, she could be dangerous throughout. Her two previous efforts suggest developing ability that could peak today.

Greta’s Ghost adds intrigue for the George Papaprodromou barn with Kyle Frey riding. The combination has produced multiple winners during the meet, and any filly from this stable warrants respect. Starting from post 7 creates tactical challenges, but if she can overcome the outside draw, her late kick could be a factor.

Betting Strategy

Moonlit Courage deserves serious win consideration at morning line odds of 5-1, representing solid value given her connections and progression. Structure exacta wagers with Moonlit Courage over Divine Wind and Tupelo to cover the most probable finishing combinations. The Mandella factor alone warrants inclusion in all horizontal wagers.

For trifecta plays, use Moonlit Courage and Divine Wind as the top two positions, then spread to Tupelo, Greta’s Ghost, and Aloha Dreamin in the third slot. Consider including Eastwick as a deeper longshot in larger trifecta and superfecta tickets, as she could benefit if pace pressures develop early.

Selections

Win: Moonlit Courage

Place: Divine Wind

Show: Tupelo

Race 5

Post Time: 2:32 PM

Maiden claiming California-bred fillies and mares, three years old and upward, 5.5 furlongs dirt, purse $16,000, claiming price $12,500

Pace Analysis

This California-bred maiden sprint should produce spirited early fractions with multiple fillies showing frontrunning tendencies. Que Bella Luna and Dixie’s Delight both demonstrate early speed and figure to contest the lead from the gate. The short 5.5-furlong distance leaves little time for horses to make up ground, placing premium value on breaking alertly and securing favorable position.

Amelia’s Echo brings experience with nine career starts and projects to sit just off the early speed battle. The Philip D’Amato trainee possesses tactical speed that allows positioning flexibility, though she has shown closing tendencies in recent efforts. With multiple frontrunners likely engaging each other early, late runners could benefit if fractions become too demanding for the leaders to maintain.

Key Contenders

Amelia’s Echo stands out as the most accomplished filly in the field based on earnings and consistency. The D’Amato trainee has banked over $145,000 in career earnings while hitting the board six times from nine starts. Her experience advantage proves significant in a field where most rivals have limited racing background. The filly has demonstrated ability at this distance with multiple competitive efforts at Del Mar, suggesting comfort with track and surroundings.

Antonio Fresu rides for a barn that has shown excellent form during the meet, creating confidence in the combination. Amelia’s Echo draws post 6, providing a clean break without forcing her to the extreme outside. Her tactical speed allows her to sit just behind the early pace battle, then pounce when leaders tire. The class drop to maiden claiming $12,500 represents her lowest level, and continued progression points toward finally breaking her maiden.

Dixie’s Delight offers strong value as a potential upset candidate for the Blaine Wright barn. The filly has finished in the top three in six of nine starts, including three runner-up efforts, showing consistent competitiveness. Juan Hernandez takes over riding duties, a significant upgrade that could provide the difference. Hernandez currently sits near the top of the jockey standings and brings tactical expertise that has produced multiple stakes victories.

Secondary Choices

Que Bella Luna brings tactical speed and early pace presence for trainer Ronald Ellis. The four-year-old mare has hit the board once in three starts and demonstrates willingness to run on the lead. Welfin Orantes rides from post 7, creating questions about securing favorable position, but if she can establish command early, she could prove difficult to pass. Morning line odds of 6-1 offer value if she runs to her best effort.

Smiling Rapper adds depth for trainer Bill McLean with Kimura riding. The filly has started 12 times with three third-place finishes, showing the consistency to factor in most races. Her experience level matches up favorably against this field, and if the pace becomes contentious, her stalking style could pay dividends late.

Betting Strategy

Amelia’s Echo merits strong win consideration despite short morning line odds of 8-5. Her class and experience advantages should prove decisive, and the favorable post position allows Fresu to secure an ideal trip. Structure exacta wagers with Amelia’s Echo on top over Dixie’s Delight, Que Bella Luna, and Smiling Rapper.

Consider playing Amelia’s Echo in vertical exotic plays as a potential single, then spreading underneath in exactas and trifectas with multiple contenders. The combination of D’Amato and Fresu creates confidence for using her as a foundation horse in multi-race sequences. Trifecta plays should include Amelia’s Echo on top with broad second and third place coverage incorporating Dixie’s Delight, Que Bella Luna, Smiling Rapper, and Royal Dusty.

Selections

Win: Amelia’s Echo

Place: Dixie’s Delight

Show: Que Bella Luna

Race 6

Post Time: 3:02 PM

Claiming fillies and mares, three years old and upward, seven furlongs dirt, purse $26,000, claiming price $25,000

Pace Analysis

This claiming race for fillies and mares should develop moderate early fractions with tactical positioning playing a crucial role. The seven-furlong distance provides time for pace development while still favoring horses with tactical speed. Headstrong Ways has shown ability to press or stalk the pace, while Freya brings tactical versatility that allows different trip scenarios.

The pace setup favors horses that can secure favorable stalking positions within striking distance of the leaders. With no pronounced speed types in the field, fractions should be reasonable rather than contested, creating opportunities for horses with tactical speed to position themselves for stretch runs. The current track bias continues to favor horses positioned on or near the lead throughout.

Key Contenders

Headstrong Ways emerges as a logical choice based on recent form and connections. The Richard Baltas-trained filly finished second at this exact level on September 28, and that race has produced three next-out winners, suggesting competitive form. The filly has worked a half-dozen times since that effort, indicating Baltas has her pointed and ready for today’s assignment. The trainer’s success rate at Del Mar and patient approach with fillies creates confidence.

Tiago Pereira rides for connections that have found success together during the meet. Drawing post 2 provides positional flexibility, allowing Pereira to secure the trip he desires without forcing aggressive early moves. Headstrong Ways has demonstrated tactical speed that fits perfectly with current track conditions favoring forwardly placed runners. Her breeding by Munnings suggests she should handle the seven-furlong distance effectively.

Freya brings intrigue as a daughter of Into Mischief trained by Blaine Wright. The three-year-old filly switches from turf to dirt after her most recent start but has shown dirt form previously. Ricardo Gonzalez takes the mount from post 4, providing a middle draw that should allow tactical flexibility. At morning line odds of around 5-1, she offers value if she takes to the main track.

Secondary Choices

Severe Clear represents the Peter Miller barn, always a threat at Del Mar with his strong training record. The filly drops down to $22,500 claiming level, receiving a two-pound weight allowance that could prove significant. Kimura rides for a barn that knows how to win, and if pace dynamics unfold favorably, she could close late for a piece.

Exington adds dimension for trainer Jamey Thomas with Edwin Maldonado riding. The filly also drops to $22,500, gaining the weight allowance. Post 5 provides a middle draw, and if she can secure a clean stalking trip, her late kick could be dangerous. Morning line odds around 4-1 offer value for a filly that could benefit from pace pressure up front.

Betting Strategy

Headstrong Ways warrants win bet consideration at expected odds around 3-1. Her form cycle, connections, and favorable post position create optimism about victory chances. Structure exacta plays with Headstrong Ways on top over Freya, Severe Clear, and Exington to capture various outcomes.

For trifecta coverage, use Headstrong Ways and Freya in the top two positions, then spread to Severe Clear, Exington, Girlcanthelpit, and Coralgableskaylin in the third slot. The competitive nature of this claiming heat suggests spreading tickets broadly rather than concentrating on a few horses.

Selections

Win: Headstrong Ways

Place: Freya

Show: Severe Clear

Race 7

Post Time: 3:32 PM

Allowance optional claiming California-breds, fillies and mares, three years old and upward, 6.5 furlongs dirt, purse $61,000

Pace Analysis

This California-bred allowance optional claiming race should produce solid early fractions with multiple fillies showing tactical speed. The competitive nature of the condition suggests several horses capable of contesting early position. Don’t Ju Forget brings experience and proven early speed, while Christel Clean has demonstrated frontrunning ability in recent victories.

The 6.5-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed that can position themselves within striking distance of the leaders. With the enhanced purse and competitive condition, expect honest fractions that test stamina in the final furlong. Horses drawn inside should enjoy positional advantages, though tactical speed remains more important than pure gate position.

Key Contenders

Christel Clean rates as the standout based on recent form and connections. The John Sadler trainee enters off an impressive debut victory at Del Mar on August 9, drawing off to a sparkling win in allowance company. The Violence filly demonstrated tactical speed and finishing power, suggesting she possesses the versatility to win from different positions. Sadler’s success rate at Del Mar and patient development of young fillies creates confidence.

Hector Berrios rides for a trainer who has captured six wins during the current meet, tied for the training title lead. The jockey-trainer combination has proven successful throughout the fall season. Christel Clean’s breeding by Violence, a proven sire of quality horses, suggests continued progression as she matures. Drawing post 7 creates some tactical questions, but her speed figures from the debut victory indicate class superiority over these rivals. Morning line odds of 2-1 represent fair value for a filly with upside.

Don’t Ju Forget brings veteran experience with solid form throughout the year. The six-year-old mare trains with George Papaprodromou and has finished in the top three consistently at this level. Edwin Maldonado rides from post 6, providing tactical flexibility. Her experience in California-bred restricted races gives her familiarity with the condition, and she should be competitive throughout.

Secondary Choices

Timekeeper’s Charm adds intrigue as a stablemate to Christel Clean from the Steve Knapp barn. The filly finished second to Christel Clean in that August 9 debut and has raced once since with solid effort. Tiago Pereira rides from post 3, providing inside position that could prove advantageous. If she has improved off that defeat to Christel Clean, she rates a threat to any horse in here.

Rizzleberry Rose represents trainer Peter Eurton with Juan Hernandez riding. The combination brings credentials, and Hernandez’s success rate at Del Mar makes any mount dangerous. From post 4, she should secure a decent stalking trip and could benefit if pace pressures develop early.

Betting Strategy

Christel Clean deserves strong win consideration at morning line odds of 2-1. Her debut victory was visually impressive, and Sadler’s training record suggests she has improved since. Structure exacta wagers with Christel Clean on top over Don’t Ju Forget, Timekeeper’s Charm, and Rizzleberry Rose.

Consider using Christel Clean as a single in exacta and trifecta plays, providing cost efficiency while maintaining coverage if she dominates. In deeper trifectas, include Don’t Ju Forget, Timekeeper’s Charm, Rizzleberry Rose, and California Rocks in the second and third positions to capture different scenarios.

Selections

Win: Christel Clean

Place: Don’t Ju Forget

Show: Timekeeper’s Charm

Race 8

Post Time: 4:02 PM

Grade III Native Diver Stakes, three years old and upward, 1 1/8 miles dirt, purse $100,000

Pace Analysis

The Native Diver Stakes presents an intriguing pace scenario with a compact field of five horses. Westwood has shown frontrunning ability in recent efforts and likely heads straight to the lead with new jockey Umberto Rispoli. Nevada Beach possesses tactical speed that allows him to sit just behind the leader or engage early if necessary. The moderate pace should favor horses with tactical speed that can position themselves to strike when opportunities arise.

Indispensable trains with John Sadler, whose horses typically display tactical speed and ability to rate behind horses. The Constitution colt should secure a ground-saving stalking position from post 1, tracking the pace while conserving energy for his stretch run. British Isles and Clouseau both show late-running tendencies, creating questions about whether they can overcome the lack of pace pressure.

The 1 1/8-mile distance provides ample time for pace development, though with only five horses, the expected moderate fractions may not set up ideally for closers. Horses positioned within 2-3 lengths of the lead entering the stretch should enjoy significant advantages over deep closers needing to make up substantial ground.

Key Contenders

Nevada Beach towers over this field based on class, recent form, and proven ability at the distance. The Bob Baffert trainee enters off a troubled seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on November 1, where he lacked racing room early and never factored. Prior to that setback, he captured the Grade I Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita by 1.5 lengths, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure that dwarfs anything earned by today’s rivals.

The Omaha Beach colt has proven brilliance at the 1 1/8-mile distance with victories in the Los Alamitos Derby by 4.25 lengths and the Goodwood Stakes. His tactical speed allows jockey Juan Hernandez to position him ideally behind the expected leader Westwood, then unleash his powerful closing kick when they straighten for home. The reunion with Hernandez, who has ridden Nevada Beach to victory twice in three attempts, adds confidence.

Nevada Beach’s troubled Breeders’ Cup Classic run offers a legitimate excuse for that performance, as he was squeezed back early and never found the racing room needed to mount his rally. Returning to Southern California dirt against easier competition should allow him to regain his winning form. The three-week break since the Classic provides adequate recovery time while maintaining fitness. At expected odds around 3-5, he represents the class of the field and should prove too talented for these rivals.

Indispensable offers value as the primary challenger at morning line odds of around 3-1. The John Sadler-trained colt has shown solid form at Del Mar with both his victories coming at the seaside oval. He finished a game second at the allowance optional claiming level most recently, suggesting readiness for another forward move. Drawing the rail provides significant advantage, allowing Hector Berrios to save ground throughout while tracking Nevada Beach’s every move.

Secondary Choices

Westwood brings intrigue despite inconsistent form throughout the year. The John Shirreffs trainee broke his maiden at Del Mar on August 24 and has followed with consecutive runner-up finishes. Umberto Rispoli takes over riding duties for the first time, and the leading jockey’s tactical acumen could make a difference. His early speed projects him as the probable pacesetter, and if he can establish comfortable fractions, he might prove difficult to pass in deep stretch.

British Isles represents the Richard Baltas barn with Diego Herrera riding. The four-year-old gelding has faced tough competition throughout his career and drops slightly in class for this Grade III assignment. His late-running style creates concern given the expected moderate pace, but if fractions become faster than anticipated, he could close late for a piece.

Betting Strategy

Nevada Beach deserves strong win consideration despite short odds. His class advantage over this field appears substantial, and the Breeders’ Cup excuse provides legitimate reason to expect a bounce-back performance. Structure exacta wagers with Nevada Beach on top over Indispensable and Westwood to protect against upsets while maintaining value.

For value players seeking larger payoffs, consider exacta and trifecta tickets using Indispensable on top over Nevada Beach. While Nevada Beach rates as the most probable winner, Indispensable’s inside post position and tactical speed create a legitimate upset scenario if Nevada Beach fails to fire his best race. Trifecta plays should include Nevada Beach and Indispensable in the top two positions with Westwood, British Isles, and Clouseau filling out the bottom.

Selections

Win: Nevada Beach

Place: Indispensable

Show: Westwood

Race 9

Post Time: 4:32 PM

Maiden special weight, colts and geldings, two years old, 6.5 furlongs dirt, purse $60,000

Pace Analysis

This juvenile maiden special weight should produce spirited early fractions with several colts bringing speed and pedigree indicating early tactical ability. The competitive nature of this condition, combined with multiple Bob Baffert runners, suggests an honest pace throughout. Blacksmith has shown early speed in his debut, while Authentic Patriot and Winston Ave both represent first-time starters with strong work patterns suggesting readiness.

The 6.5-furlong distance provides adequate time for early positioning while rewarding horses with tactical speed. With three Baffert runners in the field, expect at least one or two to show tactical speed and contest early position. The current track bias favoring speed and forwardly placed runners gives advantages to horses breaking alertly and securing favorable trips.

Key Contenders

Blacksmith stands out as the most logical winner based on experience, breeding, and connections. The Bob Baffert trainee finished a close second in his debut at Santa Anita on October 25, running to a 91 Beyer Speed Figure that represents the fastest last race figure in the field. The Liam’s Map colt was hard-ridden trying to keep pace with an impressive winner but found his best stride late, suggesting the added distance today should help.

His pedigree screams distance, as his unraced dam is a full sister to the talented Cezanne and traces to blue hen mare Better Than Honour, who produced Grade I winners Jazil and Rags to Riches. The $525,000 yearling purchase races for Qatar-based Wathnan Racing, which has committed significant resources to partnering with Baffert. Juan Hernandez rides, and the jockey has excelled aboard Baffert juveniles throughout his career. Drawing post 3 provides ideal position, allowing Hernandez to secure the trip he desires without forcing early moves. Blacksmith worked a bullet five furlongs on November 10 at Santa Anita, suggesting readiness to improve off his debut.

Diaghilev offers strong value as a potential upset candidate for trainer Richard Mandella. The colt has started twice, showing improvement from his debut fourth to a solid third at Del Mar. Mandella’s patient approach with juveniles typically results in steady progression, and the addition of Mirco Demuro represents a significant jockey upgrade. Demuro has ridden ten winners from just a few dozen mounts during the meet, demonstrating excellent form.

Secondary Choices

Secured Freedom brings intrigue as a Tim Yakteen trainee with Kazushi Kimura riding. The Practical Joke colt makes his debut for an outfit that excels with first-time starters. His breeding suggests he should appreciate today’s distance, and the barn’s patient training methods often result in runners showing up ready. From post 9, he faces a wide draw that creates tactical challenges, but if he possesses the ability suggested by his pedigree, he could overcome the post position.

Cactus Charlie adds dimension for the Peter Miller barn with Ricardo Gonzalez riding. The colt has hit the board in his last three starts, showing the consistency to factor in most races. His experience level gives him familiarity with racing, and if he continues his progression, he should be competitive throughout. The gelding handles Del Mar well based on recent efforts.

Winston Ave represents Baffert’s third entry with Umberto Rispoli riding. The Quality Road colt makes his debut after working a bullet five furlongs at Santa Anita on November 13. Baffert’s success rate with first-time starters at Del Mar creates immediate respect, and Rispoli’s presence indicates connections view him as a legitimate contender. At morning line odds around 8-1, he offers value if he shows up ready.

Betting Strategy

Blacksmith deserves strong win consideration at morning line odds of 2-1. His experience advantage, elite connections, and favorable post position create confidence about his chances. Structure exacta wagers with Blacksmith on top over Diaghilev, Secured Freedom, and Cactus Charlie to capture the most likely outcomes.

For value seekers, consider using Diaghilev on top in exacta and trifecta combinations over Blacksmith. Mandella’s patient training methods often result in runners peaking in second or third starts, and the jockey upgrade to Demuro adds appeal. Trifecta plays should include Blacksmith and Diaghilev in the top two positions with Secured Freedom, Cactus Charlie, Winston Ave, and Authentic Patriot completing the ticket.

Selections

Win: Blacksmith

Place: Diaghilev

Show: Secured Freedom

Jockey Notes and Insights

Umberto Rispoli leads the jockey standings at the current Del Mar meet with 43 wins from limited opportunities, demonstrating a 16% win rate and 47% in-the-money percentage. The Italian jockey’s tactical acumen and timing have made him the leading rider, and he brings excellent recent form into today’s card with mounts in multiple races including Can’t Say That, Kid Charlemagne, Westwood, and Winston Ave. His ability to position horses favorably and deliver them at precisely the right moment makes any mount dangerous.

Juan Hernandez ranks near the top of the standings and brings championship pedigree to Del Mar, having captured five consecutive riding titles at the seaside oval. His work ethic includes splitting time between Santa Anita morning training sessions and Del Mar racing on weekends, demonstrating commitment to maintaining his position. Hernandez rides today in key races including Nevada Beach in the Native Diver Stakes and Blacksmith in the finale. His partnership with leading trainers including Bob Baffert creates numerous opportunities on quality horses.

Antonio Fresu has emerged as a consistent rider during the meet with eight wins and strong in-the-money percentages. The jockey has developed excellent partnerships with trainers including Doug O’Neill and Philip D’Amato, both of whom provide quality mounts regularly. Fresu rides today aboard Bear’s Board, Classico, Divine Wind, and Amelia’s Echo, giving him multiple opportunities in competitive races. His patient riding style and ability to judge pace make him particularly effective in maiden and claiming races.

Kazushi Kimura brings tactical versatility and strong recent form to today’s card. The veteran jockey has recorded 83 starts at the meet with respectable win and in-the-money percentages. His ability to adapt to different running styles and pace scenarios makes him valuable aboard horses with various preferences. Kimura rides today in multiple races including Definitely Prbable, City of Angels, Moonlit Courage, and Secured Freedom, providing opportunities across different race types.

Hector Berrios has developed into a reliable presence in the jockey colony with six wins during the meet. His partnership with trainer John Sadler has produced excellent results, and he rides Christel Clean today in Race 7 for those connections. Berrios also partners with Sadler in the Native Diver Stakes aboard Indispensable, giving him a live mount in the feature race. His tactical awareness and ability to conserve horse’s energy for stretch runs fit well with Sadler’s patient training methods.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Bob Baffert enters today’s card with three wins from 18 starts during the meet but brings quality over quantity with his entries. The Hall of Fame trainer saddles Nevada Beach in the Native Diver Stakes and has three runners in the finale including Blacksmith, Authentic Patriot, and Winston Ave. Baffert’s success rate with juveniles at Del Mar has been exceptional throughout his career, and his first-time starters often show up ready to fire winning efforts. His training methods emphasize foundation and patience, allowing horses to develop naturally before asking for maximum effort.

John Sadler leads the trainer standings with six wins, tied with George Papaprodromou. The veteran conditioner brings consistent quality to Del Mar and has excelled during the current meet. Sadler saddles Indispensable in the Native Diver Stakes and Christel Clean in Race 7, giving him live chances in two feature races. His patient training approach allows horses to develop at their own pace, and his success rate with fillies and mares has been particularly strong. Connections can expect horses from the Sadler barn to arrive fit and ready for peak performances.

Doug O’Neill has captured 67 wins from limited starters at the meet, demonstrating efficiency with his runners. The trainer brings Bear’s Board in Race 1 and Classico in Race 3 today, both representing horses with improving form lines. O’Neill’s aggressive training style emphasizes forward placement and tactical speed, fitting perfectly with the current track bias. His success rate with maiden fillies has been strong throughout his career, making Bear’s Board a threat despite limited experience.

Peter Miller maintains a strong presence at Del Mar with solid win percentages throughout the meet. The trainer has demonstrated particular success with claiming horses and tactical speed types. Miller saddles Jewlz in Race 1, Severe Clear in Race 6, and Cactus Charlie in Race 9, providing multiple opportunities across the card. His training methods emphasize fitness and readiness, with horses typically arriving prepared to deliver forward moves off layoffs or class changes.

Richard Mandella brings Hall of Fame credentials and patient training methods to every runner. The veteran conditioner saddles Moonlit Courage in Race 4 and Diaghilev in Race 9, both representing horses with upside potential. Mandella’s success rate at Del Mar spans decades, and his ability to develop young horses while managing veteran campaigners demonstrates versatility. His training style emphasizes soundness and long-term development, often resulting in steady progression rather than quick peaks.

Philip D’Amato has captured two wins from 25 starters at the meet and brings Amelia’s Echo in Race 5 today. The trainer’s patient approach with maiden fillies has produced consistent results, and horses from his barn typically show steady improvement through their form cycles. D’Amato’s success rate with California-bred restricted races has been strong, suggesting familiarity with the condition and ability to place horses effectively.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Native Diver Stakes presents the most attractive betting opportunity despite Nevada Beach’s prohibitive odds. Consider constructing exacta and trifecta wagers that include Indispensable on top over Nevada Beach and Westwood. While Nevada Beach rates as the most probable winner, the combination of Indispensable’s rail post position and Sadler’s training creates a legitimate upset scenario. A small exacta box with these three horses provides coverage while maintaining value if an upset occurs.

Race 9 offers solid value opportunities in the maiden special weight for juveniles. Blacksmith deserves win consideration, but the presence of multiple Baffert runners and improving horses from other quality barns creates opportunities for larger payoffs in exacta and trifecta wagers. Consider playing exacta boxes including Blacksmith, Diaghilev, and Secured Freedom, then adding Winston Ave and Cactus Charlie in deeper trifecta combinations. The competitive nature of this race suggests spreading tickets broadly to capture different outcomes.

Multi-race exotic wagers present value opportunities given the competitive nature of multiple races. Consider constructing Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets that include multiple horses in the claiming and maiden races while singling Nevada Beach in Race 8. A Pick 4 starting in Race 6 could include Headstrong Ways and Freya in Race 6, multiple horses in Race 7, Nevada Beach alone in Race 8, and broad coverage in Race 9.

Daily double combinations connecting races provide another attractive wagering angle. The daily double connecting Race 7 to Race 8 offers value despite Nevada Beach’s short odds, as Christel Clean represents legitimate value at 2-1 in Race 7. A modest daily double investment connecting Christel Clean and Don’t Ju Forget to Nevada Beach could produce solid returns.

For bettors seeking larger payoffs, consider constructing small superfecta tickets in competitive races including Race 2, Race 6, and Race 9. The claiming and maiden races feature evenly matched fields where multiple outcomes remain possible, creating opportunities for substantial returns if longshots factor into the top four positions.

Live longshot opportunities exist in several races. Kiki Ride in Race 3 offers trifecta and superfecta value at double-digit odds if the race sets up favorably with pace pressure. Que Bella Luna in Race 5 brings tactical speed and reasonable odds around 6-1, offering value in exacta and trifecta combinations if she secures favorable early position. Winston Ave in Race 9 represents a Baffert first-time starter working bullets who could outrun his odds if showing the talent his breeding suggests.

The speed-favoring track bias creates clear wagering implications throughout the card. Horses with early tactical speed drawn inside deserve extra consideration in all horizontal wagers. Conversely, deep closers face difficult challenges unless pace scenarios become unusually fast. Structure wagers that emphasize horses positioned within 2-3 lengths of the leaders entering stretch runs rather than relying on horses needing to make up excessive ground late.

Pick 6 and Pick 5 wagers offer attractive carryover opportunities following Friday’s cancellation. The $51,879 Pick 6 carryover creates enhanced value for bettors constructing tickets with broad coverage in the competitive claiming and maiden races while singling Nevada Beach in Race 8. Consider using multiple horses in Races 4 through 7, singling Nevada Beach in Race 8, then spreading broadly in the finale to capture the carryover pool.

Value exists in the claiming races where class drops and trainer patterns create opportunities for upsets. City of Angels in Race 2 represents significant class relief that could produce solid returns at his expected odds. Headstrong Ways in Race 6 trains off a strong runner-up effort in a race that has produced multiple next-out winners, suggesting competitive form that could translate to victory today.

Exacta boxes in competitive races offer cost-efficient ways to capture different outcomes while maintaining solid value potential. Focus exacta investments on races featuring evenly matched fields including Race 1, Race 3, Race 4, and Race 9, where multiple horses possess legitimate winning chances. Spreading modest exacta investments across these competitive heats creates multiple opportunities for returns throughout the card.