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Del Mar presents a quality nine-race card on Sunday, November 23, 2025, headlined by the Grade 3 Red Carpet Stakes in Race 7. The Bing Crosby Season continues with a diverse mix of conditions including allowance optional claiming events, maiden races, and competitive claiming contests across both turf and dirt surfaces. This Sunday card comes after Friday’s racing was cancelled due to unseasonably wet weather in San Diego, with the card added to Monday, November 24 to allow the main track additional drying time.
Post time for the first race is 12:30 PM Pacific Time, with the Red Carpet Stakes scheduled for 3:32 PM Pacific. The meet features strong competition in both the jockey and trainer standings, with Italian import Mirco Demuro leading the rider rankings with 10 victories from just 22 mounts, a remarkable 45 percent winning clip. In the trainer standings, John Sadler and George Papaprodromou are tied atop the leaderboard with six wins each, followed closely by Doug O’Neill with five victories.
Weather and Track Conditions
Sunday’s weather forecast calls for mostly sunny conditions with temperatures ranging from a high of 66 to 69 degrees Fahrenheit and lows around 48 to 52 degrees. Light east winds will shift to southwest during the afternoon, with clear evening conditions giving way to mostly cloudy skies overnight with patchy fog possible.
Track conditions are listed as fast for the dirt surface and firm for the turf course. The recent wet weather earlier in the week required Friday’s cancellation, but the track has dried sufficiently for Sunday racing. The turf rail is set at 12 feet for all grass races.
Del Mar’s main track features an unusually short homestretch of just 1,400 feet, significantly shorter than most North American tracks. This creates a speed-favoring bias, particularly on dirt routes where horses breaking from the three inside posts won 55 percent of route races in 2024. Inside speed horses dominated dirt routes, winning 30 percent of the 77 dirt routes run during the previous meet.
On turf, post position bias varies by distance. In turf sprints at five furlongs, inside posts dominate dramatically. Posts 1 and 2 produced 21.2 percent winners, while posts 8-12 failed to produce a single winner from 94 starters during recent meets. For one-mile turf races, the most common distance, the turf course plays relatively fair. However, at 1 1/16 miles and beyond, outside posts face significant disadvantages.
The speed-favoring track bias creates clear wagering implications throughout the card. Horses with early tactical speed drawn inside deserve extra consideration in all horizontal wagers.
Race 1: Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
12:30 PM Pacific
This opening five-furlong turf sprint for California-bred or California-sired two-year-olds carries a purse of $61,000. The field of seven juvenile speedsters will navigate the tight Del Mar turf course with the rail at 12 feet.
Pace Analysis
Expect a contentious early pace with multiple horses showing early tactical speed. Mo Holland Drive and Ventry Strand both possess the tactical speed to secure favorable stalking positions, while Arkadelphia and Saul Elliott show early pace in their running lines. The compressed nature of the five-furlong distance means little margin for error, and horses positioned within striking distance turning for home will have significant advantages given Del Mar’s short stretch.
Key Contenders
Mo Holland Drive draws the favorable outside post 6 for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Umberto Rispoli. This combination ranks among the most successful at Del Mar, with Miller holding strong meet statistics despite just one win from 20 starters this fall meet. The colt has earned $272,800 and shows tactical speed that fits Del Mar’s turf sprint profile perfectly. From the outside post, Rispoli can secure a ground-saving trip while tracking the early pace. His mid-pack stalking running style aligns ideally with Del Mar’s turf sprint bias favoring horses positioned close to the pace.
Ventry Strand represents the powerful John Sadler barn, which leads the trainer standings with six wins. The colt has raced just three times, winning once and hitting the board in all three starts, banking $168,000. His last race showed improvement with a fourth-place finish in turf sprint company at Santa Anita, and the class relief here could prove significant. Sadler horses are hitting the board 71 percent of the time at the current meet.
Cal’s Goal enters for Tim Yakteen with an impressive 50 percent win rate from four career starts. The gelding won his last two races, both at Santa Anita, including a victory at 6.5 furlongs on turf. His early speed figures suggest he could secure a favorable stalking position, and Yakteen is operating at a 14 percent win clip with 57 percent in-the-money finishes this meet.
Secondary Choices
Saul Elliott returns to the Miller barn with Antonio Fresu in the irons. The colt has won twice from eight starts with four additional placings, showing consistency if not dominance. He’s finished second in both recent starts on dirt at Santa Anita, and the switch to turf could provide the change needed. However, his early speed style might get him caught in the pace scramble.
Wiki Kane makes just his second career start for trainer Adam Kitchingman. The gelding debuted with a promising performance and represents an improving barn. As a lightly raced runner, he offers potential value if progressing forward from his debut.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The inside posts historically dominate Del Mar turf sprints, making Mo Holland Drive and Ventry Strand the logical foundation for exotic wagers. Structure exacta and trifecta plays with these two on top, using Cal’s Goal, Saul Elliott, and Wiki Kane underneath for coverage.
Consider a straight exacta box with Mo Holland Drive and Ventry Strand as the most likely outcome. For deeper value, include Cal’s Goal in trifecta combinations given his strong recent form and ability to secure forward position.
Selections
Win: Mo Holland Drive
Place: Ventry Strand
Show: Cal’s Goal
Race 2: Claiming
Post Time
1:02 PM Pacific
This five-furlong dirt sprint for three-year-olds carries a $43,000 purse with a claiming tag of $50,000. The compact field of six will test early speed on Del Mar’s main track.
Pace Analysis
The pace should be moderate given the dirt sprint distance and lack of confirmed speed demons. Case Hit and Binging both show early tactical ability without blazing speed figures, suggesting reasonable fractions that could set up for any horse with a late kick. Pocket Venus adds a different dimension as the lone filly, potentially benefiting from the weight allowance.
Key Contenders
Case Hit represents the Peter Miller barn and draws the rail, an advantageous starting point for a dirt sprint at Del Mar where inside posts thrive. Jockey Armando Aguilar can save ground throughout while tracking the pace. The gelding has shown consistency despite limited winning, and the class drop to $50,000 claiming after competing at higher levels provides significant relief.
Pocket Venus enters as the only filly in the race, receiving a seven-pound weight advantage. Trained by Mark Glatt, who operates at a 10 percent win rate with 45 percent in-the-money finishes this meet, she brings tactical speed and flexibility in running style. Antonio Fresu, riding at a 20 percent win clip with 56 percent ITM during the meet, takes the mount.
Secondary Choices
Binging ships from the Antonio Garcia barn for his first start at Del Mar. The colt shows tactical speed and could benefit from the surface switch if his dirt form translates.
Run for Kidder makes his Del Mar debut for Adam Kitchingman. The gelding has been working steadily and represents a barn that’s finding success despite limited opportunities.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Given the small field and competitive nature, consider vertical exotics rather than straight win bets. The exacta and trifecta offer better value propositions. Key Case Hit on top in exactas over Pocket Venus and Binging. For trifectas, use Case Hit and Pocket Venus with all in the third position.
A small win bet on Pocket Venus at expected odds around 5/2 or better provides value given her class advantage and weight relief.
Selections
Win: Case Hit
Place: Pocket Venus
Show: Binging
Race 3: Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time
1:32 PM Pacific
The longest race on the card at 1 1/16 miles on turf features an 11-horse field of three-year-olds and older competing for a $34,000 purse. This starter optional claiming event with a $50,000 tag presents a wide-open betting race.
Pace Analysis
Time Song figures to show early speed and could establish the lead without much pressure given the route distance. Night Out and Crazy Cavalier profile as closers who will benefit from any pace pressure up front. The moderate expected fractions should favor horses with tactical speed or strong closing kicks, as Del Mar’s turf routes reward both stalkers and closers at this distance.
Key Contenders
Time Song ships from the Jonathan Thomas barn with Hector Isaac Berrios aboard. The gelding has earned over $341,600 in his career and shows consistent early speed that could dominate this level. Berrios ranks among the top jockeys at the meet with strong statistics, and the combination warrants respect despite Time Song’s ninth-place finish last out at this distance.
Night Out represents the powerful Philip D’Amato stable with Umberto Rispoli in the irons. This combination won a race just yesterday at Del Mar, and D’Amato horses are hitting at respectable rates despite just two wins from 25 starters this meet. The colt shows a closing running style perfectly suited to Del Mar’s turf routes, and his recent form includes solid placings against this caliber.
Crazy Cavalier enters for Doug O’Neill, who ranks third in the trainer standings with five wins. The gelding has compiled an impressive record with 2 wins, 13 seconds, and 17 thirds from 23 starts, demonstrating consistency even without regular victories. Antonio Fresu takes the mount, and his hot hand at the meet (eight wins, 56 percent ITM) makes this combination dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Poor Connection makes his second start after a layoff for Michael McCarthy. The gelding won his return race at Santa Anita and draws the rail with Mirco Demuro, the meet’s leading rider. The combination of class relief, positive momentum, and top connections makes him a logical inclusion.
Prince of Del Mar represents the Andy Mathis barn, which operates at a perfect 100 percent ITM rate this meet, albeit from limited opportunities. The gelding’s recent Santa Anita form shows competitiveness at this level.
Longshots
Call Me Sir returns to the races for Mark Glatt with Kent Desormeaux riding. The combination brings experience and the gelding has earned solid money, making him a potential surprise.
Empire’s Classic ships from the Mike Puype barn and represents a trainer finding success at selective spots.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This wide-open race favors multi-race exotic plays over straight bets. Consider using multiple horses in the exacta and trifecta, keying Time Song and Night Out with several combinations underneath.
Structure pick three and pick four tickets using 3-4 horses from this race, as pinpointing a winner seems difficult given the competitive field and varied running styles.
Selections
Win: Night Out
Place: Time Song
Show: Crazy Cavalier
Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time
2:02 PM Pacific
Five juvenile fillies contest this 5.5-furlong dirt sprint with a $34,000 purse. The compact field of starter optional claiming runners with a $50,000 tag sets up for a tactical speed duel.
Pace Analysis
Strong Morals and Darlin Sugaree both show early speed and figure to contest the early lead. My Kat and Lady K Westfall could sit just off the pace, while Bobs Honey profiles more as a closer. The relatively short distance leaves minimal margin for error, favoring horses breaking alertly and securing favorable positions early.
Key Contenders
Darlin Sugaree represents trainer Jeff Mullins, who ranks in the top tier of meet trainers with three wins. Jockey Juan Hernandez provides a significant rider upgrade, as he’s winning at elite levels despite the meet’s tough competition. The filly’s tactical speed fits Del Mar’s dirt sprint profile, and the combination of improving trainer, top jockey, and suitable running style creates confidence.
My Kat enters for George Papaprodromou, who shares the lead in the trainer standings with six victories. Umberto Rispoli takes the mount fresh off yesterday’s success, and his 19 percent win rate with 51 percent ITM figures demonstrates consistency. The filly gets a weight allowance and can sit a stalking trip behind the speed.
Secondary Choices
Strong Morals debuts for this barn after training regularly. Trainer Papaprodromou’s strong meet makes any first-time starter from his barn worth respect. Mirco Demuro rides, and his 45 percent win rate at the meet speaks volumes.
Bobs Honey represents Tim McCanna with Kyle Frey aboard. The filly receives a weight allowance and shows improving form with a third-place finish last out.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The small field creates efficiency in exotic wagering. Box the top three selections in exactas and trifectas rather than trying to separate them. Consider Darlin Sugaree for win betting if odds exceed 3-1, as the value becomes attractive with Hernandez aboard.
Selections
Win: Darlin Sugaree
Place: My Kat
Show: Strong Morals
Race 5: Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
2:32 PM Pacific
Twelve fillies and mares contest this five-furlong turf sprint with a $61,000 purse. The allowance optional claiming conditions with a $50,000 tag create depth in this competitive turf sprint.
Pace Analysis
Multiple horses show early tactical speed, suggesting a solid but not suicidal early pace. Fancy Facts and Young Love both figure to be prominent early, while Dare to Fly, Current Affair, and Tigerish profile as horses needing racing room to unleash late kicks. The five-furlong distance on Del Mar’s turf favors horses positioned within striking distance, as the short stretch provides minimal time for deep closers to rally.
Key Contenders
Dare to Fly represents Philip D’Amato with Umberto Rispoli riding. This filly has earned over $372,000 and brings proven class to the race. Her last start showed a victory at four furlongs on dirt, demonstrating versatility and current sharpness. D’Amato and Rispoli combined for a winner at yesterday’s card, indicating the stable is firing. Her tactical speed allows positioning flexibility, a crucial advantage in turf sprints where trip often determines outcome.
Young Love enters for Peter Miller with Armando Aguilar aboard. The filly has banked $291,000 and shows the fast stalking running style that succeeds in Del Mar turf sprints. Miller knows how to win at Del Mar despite current meet statistics not reflecting his overall success, and Aguilar can navigate the tight turf course effectively.
Oveta’s Hobby represents John Sadler, the meet’s co-leading trainer, with Hector Isaac Berrios riding. This combination ranks among the meet’s best, and Sadler’s 71 percent in-the-money percentage demonstrates consistent competitiveness. The filly’s mid-pack stalking style suits the projected pace scenario.
Secondary Choices
Lovin’ On the Run brings class for Doug O’Neill, who ranks third in the trainer standings. The mare has earned significant money and Antonio Fresu’s hot hand makes this a logical exotic inclusion.
Tigerish adds another runner from D’Amato’s barn, which currently leads the Santa Anita standings and brings depth to Del Mar. Her closing style could benefit if pace pressure develops early.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Given the large field and competitive nature, construct wide exotic tickets rather than narrow straight wagers. Key Dare to Fly and Young Love in exactas and trifectas, spreading underneath to Oveta’s Hobby, Lovin’ On the Run, Current Affair, and Tigerish.
Consider Dare to Fly for modest win betting if odds reach 4-1 or better, though she may go lower given the D’Amato/Rispoli hot hand.
Selections
Win: Dare to Fly
Place: Young Love
Show: Oveta’s Hobby
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight
Post Time
3:02 PM Pacific
Eight maiden fillies and mares contest this 6.5-furlong dirt race with a $60,000 purse. The Bob Baffert-trained duo of Neko and Nafisa headline a field seeking their first career victory.
Pace Analysis
The pace should be honest with multiple horses showing tactical speed. Mad Pursuit, Starwood, and potentially Neko all could factor early. The 6.5-furlong distance provides sufficient time for pace dynamics to develop while still favoring horses positioned within range turning for home.
Key Contenders
Neko represents the Bob Baffert barn with Juan Hernandez aboard. This combination dominated the Del Mar summer meet, with Baffert winning at 30 percent and Hernandez capturing his fifth consecutive riding title. The filly debuts off training that suggests readiness, and Baffert juveniles typically fire first time out when the connections commit. The morning line of 7/2 suggests respect from oddsmakers.
Starwood debuts for Richard Mandella with Mirco Demuro riding. Mandella ranks among racing’s elite trainers and shows a 17 percent win rate with 50 percent ITM at the current meet. Demuro leads all jockeys with a 45 percent win rate. This combination rarely enters maidens without legitimate winning chances, and Starwood’s breeding suggests capability.
Nafisa returns to the races for Baffert after a layoff. The older filly brings experience that could prove advantageous against younger rivals, and her return suggests the barn sees improvement. Kazushi Kimura takes the mount and operates at an 11 percent win clip at the meet.
Secondary Choices
Mad Pursuit represents Richard Baltas, a competent trainer who finds success at selective spots. The filly showed promise in her debut and could improve with experience.
Into the Hall enters for John Shirreffs with Hector Isaac Berrios aboard. This filly has shown steady progression through training and represents a trainer known for patience with developing horses.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The Baffert-Hernandez combination on Neko demands respect in a maiden race, but Starwood with Mandella-Demuro provides serious competition. Consider exacta boxes with these two, adding Nafisa and Mad Pursuit for trifecta coverage.
A small win bet on Starwood if odds exceed 6-1 provides value given the elite connections, while Neko represents the safer choice at likely shorter odds.
Selections
Win: Neko
Place: Starwood
Show: Nafisa
Race 7: Red Carpet Stakes (Grade 3)
Post Time
3:32 PM Pacific
The featured Red Carpet Stakes brings together 10 fillies and mares for 1 3/8 miles on turf with a $100,000 purse. Defending champion Mrs. Astor headlines the field in this marathon turf test.
Pace Analysis
The extended distance should produce moderate early fractions with positioning crucial for the stretch run. Mrs. Astor and Will Then both profile as horses rating off the pace, while Paradise Lake and Public Assembly could provide early tempo. The 1 3/8-mile distance allows ample time for pace dynamics to develop, and the final five furlongs will determine the outcome as horses make their bids.
Key Contenders
Mrs. Astor returns to defend her title in this race that she won by a length last year. The Jonathan Thomas trainee shows strong recent form with six consecutive stakes placings, including a third-place finish in her last start. Umberto Rispoli, riding at elite levels during the meet, takes over for regular rider Vincent Cheminaud. The mare won this race at these exact conditions and distance, demonstrating proven ability at the marathon distance. Her tactical speed allows rating off the pace before unleashing a sustained rally, the ideal running style for this distance.
Will Then was supplemented to this race by the Thomas barn, making her stablemate to Mrs. Astor. The three-year-old filly comes off a fifth-place finish in the Del Mar Oaks and steps up significantly in distance. However, her youth and improving trajectory could offset the distance stretch. Hector Isaac Berrios rides, and his strong meet statistics add confidence. The barn’s confidence in supplementing her suggests they believe she can handle the distance.
Public Assembly represents Philip D’Amato and drops in class from Grade 1 company. The filly possesses tactical speed that could secure ideal position stalking the pace. Antonio Fresu rides with strong meet momentum, and the class relief from Breeders’ Cup competition to Grade 3 level provides significant advantage.
Secondary Choices
Musical Rhapsody adds depth from the D’Amato barn. The mare brings international form and has proven effective on firm turf courses. If the pace develops favorably, her closing kick could factor.
Paradise Lake enters for Peter Eurton with Juan Hernandez aboard. This combination succeeds when circumstances align, and the mare’s recent form suggests competitiveness at this level.
Venganza represents Richard Mandella, who prepares horses perfectly for target races. Mirco Demuro’s hot hand adds appeal to this longer-priced option.
Longshots
Hey Jessie represents Sean McCarthy with Mike Smith aboard. Smith’s experience in marathon turf races makes this an interesting longshot play.
Mahina and Sun Of Hill round out the field as longer-priced options for exotic coverage.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Mrs. Astor’s proven ability at the distance and conditions makes her the logical choice for straight wagering, though odds around 5/2 limit pure value. Consider exacta and trifecta plays keying Mrs. Astor over Will Then, Public Assembly, and Musical Rhapsody.
For deeper value, construct trifectas and superfectas using Mrs. Astor and Will Then on top with Public Assembly, Musical Rhapsody, Paradise Lake, and Venganza filling the back end.
Selections
Win: Mrs. Astor
Place: Will Then
Show: Public Assembly
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight
Post Time
4:02 PM Pacific
Nine juvenile fillies debut or seek their first victory in this 6.5-furlong dirt maiden with a $60,000 purse. Bob Baffert saddles two runners including heavily favored Nimah.
Pace Analysis
The pace could develop contentiously with multiple first-time starters showing speed in training. Nimah and Mesmerize both represent elite trainers and likely possess tactical speed. The 6.5-furlong distance provides time for pace dynamics while still favoring forwardly-placed runners given Del Mar’s short stretch.
Key Contenders
Nimah debuts for Bob Baffert with Juan Hernandez riding. The Baffert-Hernandez combination has dominated Southern California racing, and this filly received morning line favoritism at 5/2, indicating significant stable confidence. Baffert’s juvenile fillies typically show readiness when debuting in maiden special weight company with Hernandez aboard. Her training pattern suggests she’ll break alertly and utilize tactical speed to secure position.
Lerios represents Richard Mandella with Mirco Demuro aboard. This combination ranks among the meet’s most successful, and Mandella’s patient approach with juveniles produces steady improvers. The morning line odds of 7/2 indicate respect for her chances, and Demuro’s 45 percent win rate suggests she possesses genuine ability.
Mesmerize gives Mandella his second runner in the race with Mike Smith replacing Demuro. Smith’s experience and tactical skills provide advantages in maiden races where positioning often determines outcomes. The filly’s breeding and training pattern suggest capability, and Mandella wouldn’t double-enter without believing both can compete.
Secondary Choices
Getting Closer debuts for Simon Callaghan with Umberto Rispoli riding. This combination succeeds regularly, and Rispoli’s hot hand makes any debut mount worth consideration.
My Girl Mia represents Doug O’Neill with Antonio Fresu aboard. O’Neill ranks third in the trainer standings, and Fresu continues producing winners.
Miss Watermelon enters for Jonathan Thomas with Kazushi Kimura riding. The filly showed promise in training and represents a competent barn.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The Baffert-Hernandez combination on Nimah provides the safest option, though expected short odds limit pure value. Consider exacta plays keying Nimah over Lerios, Mesmerize, and Getting Closer. Trifecta tickets should include these four prominently while adding My Girl Mia and Miss Watermelon for coverage.
A saver on Lerios or Mesmerize to win provides value if either catches a perfect trip and Nimah encounters trouble.
Selections
Win: Nimah
Place: Lerios
Show: Mesmerize
Race 9: Maiden Claiming
Post Time
4:32 PM Pacific
The card concludes with 14 maiden fillies and mares contesting one mile on turf with a $33,000 purse and $50,000 claiming price. The large field creates betting opportunities in exotic wagers.
Pace Analysis
With 14 runners navigating the one-mile turf course, pace dynamics become crucial. The rail at 12 feet creates additional tactical considerations, and horses drawn wide must work to secure position early without expending excessive energy. Expect moderate fractions given the maiden claiming conditions and extended distance.
Key Contenders
Wildfire Princess enters for Robert Hess Jr. with Umberto Rispoli aboard. Handicappers from Keeneland rate her as the best bet in the race, citing her improving form and ideal running style for Del Mar’s turf course. Rispoli’s elite meet statistics add significant confidence, and the combination profiles as the logical choice despite competitive odds.
Paarl represents John Sadler, the meet’s co-leading trainer, with Antonio Fresu riding. Both jockey and trainer rank among the meet’s leaders, and their combination succeeds regularly. The filly brings class that could prove decisive at the maiden claiming level.
Global Consort debuts for Paula Capestro with Mirco Demuro aboard. The meet’s leading rider rarely takes maiden claiming mounts without legitimate winning chances, and his presence suggests the filly possesses ability.
Secondary Choices
Angelica Bay ships from Simon Callaghan’s barn and represents a trainer finding success at Del Mar. Her European breeding suggests turf aptitude, and the mile distance could suit her running style.
Gathered enters for Michael McCarthy, a competent trainer who succeeds when circumstances align. The filly’s recent form shows competitiveness at this level.
Winika debuts for Jeff Mullins with Hector Isaac Berrios riding. Mullins ranks among the meet’s top trainers, and Berrios continues producing winners.
Longshots
Nakota brings experience for Patrick Gallagher, making her dangerous if the pace sets up favorably.
Authentic Grace represents Neil Drysdale, a trainer known for patience and developing horses gradually.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The large field favors vertical exotics over straight wagering. Construct wide trifecta and superfecta tickets using Wildfire Princess, Paarl, and Global Consort prominently while spreading to numerous secondary choices.
Consider pick three and pick four plays concluding with this race, using 4-5 horses to maximize coverage given the competitive and unpredictable nature of 14-horse maiden claiming events.
Selections
Win: Wildfire Princess
Place: Paarl
Show: Global Consort
Jockey Notes and Insights
Mirco Demuro continues his remarkable run atop the jockey standings with 10 victories from just 22 mounts, a 45 percent winning clip that dominates the competition. The 46-year-old Italian rider, who built his reputation in Japan before relocating to California this summer, has found immediate success through strong relationships with trainers Richard Mandella, Leonard Powell, and Doug O’Neill. His tactical brilliance and adaptability to American racing have proven exceptional, and he’s hitting the board 50 percent of the time.
Antonio Fresu ranks second with eight wins from 44 mounts, an 18 percent win rate with 56 percent in-the-money finishes. The Italian rider’s consistency makes him a dependable choice across various race types, and his connection with Peter Miller’s barn provides regular opportunities.
Umberto Rispoli holds third place with seven victories from 43 mounts. His 19 percent win rate and 51 percent ITM percentage demonstrate steady excellence. Rispoli’s experience at Del Mar and strong relationships with multiple barns keep him competitive throughout the meet. His partnership with Philip D’Amato has produced recent success.
Juan Hernandez, the five-time defending Del Mar riding champion, operates slightly below his typical dominant standards but remains dangerous on quality mounts. His connections with Bob Baffert and other top barns ensure he receives premium opportunities despite the meet’s competitive jockey colony. Hernandez is winning at a 26 percent clip with 54 percent ITM through 671 starts in 2025.
Hector Isaac Berrios shows strong statistics with solid connections to top trainers. His relationship with John Sadler’s barn provides consistent opportunities on competitive horses.
Armando Ayuso operates at a 16 percent win rate with 38 percent ITM from 98 starts at the meet. His tactical skills make him effective on horses needing patient rides.
Trainer Notes and Insights
John Sadler and George Papaprodromou share the lead in trainer standings with six victories each. Sadler’s horses hit the board 71 percent of the time, demonstrating remarkable consistency. His training of Super Corredora to Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies victory highlights his ability to prepare horses for major targets. Sadler maintains over 2,700 career victories and has won multiple Del Mar training titles.
Doug O’Neill ranks third with five victories. His barn operates efficiently despite fewer starters than some competitors, and his connections with Antonio Fresu and Mirco Demuro provide strong jockey support.
Bob Baffert, despite just three wins from 18 starters at the current meet, brings championship-caliber horses whenever he targets races. His 17 percent win rate and 61 percent ITM percentage demonstrate quality over quantity. Baffert’s connection with Juan Hernandez creates a formidable combination, particularly with juvenile horses.
Philip D’Amato operates with 25 starters producing two wins but shows signs of finding rhythm after dominating the Santa Anita autumn meet. His 8 percent win rate understates his competitiveness, as horses hit the board 20 percent of the time. D’Amato’s relationship with Umberto Rispoli has produced recent success.
Peter Miller, historically one of Del Mar’s most successful trainers, shows just one win from 20 starters this meet. His 5 percent win rate represents an aberration compared to his career success at the track. Miller’s horses typically improve as meets progress, making his runners worth consideration despite current statistics.
Richard Mandella operates at a 17 percent win rate with 50 percent ITM from 12 starters. His patient approach and relationship with Mirco Demuro creates dangerous combinations. Mandella’s reputation for peaking horses at target races makes his runners dangerous in stakes company.
Mark Glatt shows a 10 percent win rate with 45 percent ITM from 20 starters. His competent barn succeeds across various race types and conditions.
Jonathan Thomas trains the defending Red Carpet Stakes champion Mrs. Astor and has supplemented stablemate Will Then to the race, demonstrating confidence in his turf string.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The speed-favoring bias at Del Mar creates clear wagering implications throughout Sunday’s card. Horses with early tactical speed drawn inside deserve extra consideration in all horizontal wagers, particularly in dirt sprints and routes where inside posts dominated recent statistics.
In turf sprints, the post position bias becomes extreme. Posts 1-2 produced 21.2 percent winners while posts 8-12 failed to produce any winners from 94 starters in recent meets. This creates value opportunities when quality horses draw outside posts at inflated odds, as bettors overreact to poor post positions.
The Mirco Demuro factor represents significant value throughout the card. His 45 percent win rate from 22 mounts demonstrates he’s riding better than any jockey at the meet, yet odds haven’t fully adjusted to his dominance. Consider upgrading any Demuro mount in exotic wagers, particularly when paired with quality trainers like Mandella, Powell, or O’Neill.
The Baffert-Hernandez combination in maiden races provides reliable anchor points for exotic tickets despite often going favored. Their success rate with juveniles at Del Mar justifies the shorter odds, and using them as singles in pick sequences creates efficiency.
For Race 3’s wide-open turf route, the 11-horse field creates value in vertical exotics rather than straight wagering. Spreading multiple horses in trifectas and superfectas offers better expected value than attempting to separate marginal contenders in win betting.
The Red Carpet Stakes presents Mrs. Astor as a deserving favorite with proven ability at the exact conditions. However, her expected odds around 5/2 create value in exacta and trifecta plays using her on top rather than straight win betting. Keying her over Thomas stablemate Will Then and D’Amato’s Public Assembly provides coverage if the favorite prevails while offering upside if one of the value plays hits the board.
Race 9’s 14-horse maiden claiming field on turf creates chaos that favors wide tickets in superfectas and pick sequences. Rather than attempting precision, spread coverage to 6-8 horses in superfecta combinations, accepting lower individual probabilities in exchange for comprehensive coverage.
Multi-race wagers provide optimal value given the card’s competitive nature. The late pick four covering Races 6-9 offers reasonable carryover potential and includes races where spreading to multiple horses makes tactical sense. Consider 3x3x2x4 or similar configurations that concentrate horses in races with clearer contenders while spreading in chaotic events.
Rolling pick threes connecting through the featured Red Carpet Stakes allow using Mrs. Astor as a single while spreading in surrounding races. This creates efficiency while maintaining upside if the favorite delivers as expected.
The combination of speed-favoring bias, hot jockey and trainer connections, and competitive fields throughout the card favors exotic wagering over straight win bets. Constructing disciplined exotic tickets that emphasize inside posts in sprints, top jockey-trainer combinations, and form cycles creates sustainable value across the nine-race program.
