Delaware Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for October 16, 2025

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Delaware Park wraps up another exciting day of racing with perfect conditions for the final week of their 88th live racing season. The dirt track is rated Fast, while the turf course remains Firm with the rail set at 35 feet. Light rain and temperatures around 57°F, along with northeast winds at 15 mph, create tough but fair racing conditions for today’s nine-race card.​

Track Overview

Post time begins at 12:45 PM for the opening maiden claiming event, with the card featuring a diverse mix of claiming races, maiden events, and an allowance feature. Several turf races have been impacted by Main-Track-Only scratches, reflecting typical late-season conditions at the Delaware oval.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (12:45 PM)

Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Purse: $20,000
Class: Maiden Claiming $20,000

Key Contenders

Naymar (#3) emerges as the morning line favorite and expert consensus choice at 3-2 odds. Trainer Gary Capuano sends out this two-year-old gelding with jockey Yedsit Hazlewood, who reduces weight to 114 pounds. The combination of class relief and rider booking suggests confidence from connections.

Sin Sin (#1) represents trainer Anthony Pecoraro with Charlie Marquez in the irons. Marquez ranks among Delaware Park’s leading riders this season, adding credibility to this two-year-old colt’s chances at full weight.

Pace Analysis

This appears to be a speed-favoring setup with several early runners likely to contest the pace. The one-mile distance should allow for tactical positioning, favoring horses with tactical speed.

Wagering Recommendation

Win/Place: Naymar (#3)
Value Play: Sin Sin (#1) for the exacta

Race 2 – Fillies & Mares Claiming (1:17 PM)

Distance: 5.5 Furlongs Dirt
Purse: $16,000
Class: Claiming $5,000

Key Contenders

Dissolute (#8) commands expert attention at 9-5 morning line odds with trainer Cathal A. Lynch and jockey Angel Cruz. Lynch has shown strong recent form at the Delaware meet, and Cruz remains one of the circuit’s most reliable riders.

Bad Temper (#7) brings experience at age seven under trainer Bruce M. Kravets with Carlos Eduardo Lopez riding. Kravets maintains solid statistics at the current meet, making this mare a logical contender.

Secondary Choices

Amirati (#3) represents another Kravets trainee with Charlie Marquez aboard, creating a formidable stable entry. The trainer’s double representation suggests confidence in the race setup.

Pace Analysis

The sprint distance favors speed horses, with several likely pace pressers creating an honest tempo. Closers may struggle in the shortened field.

Wagering Recommendation

Win: Dissolute (#8)
Exacta: 8-1-3
Trifecta: 8/1,3/1,3,7

Race 3 – Maiden Claiming (1:49 PM)

Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt
Purse: $14,000
Class: Maiden Claiming $7,500

Key Contenders

Pump It Up (#6) attracts expert support at 3-1 odds for trainer Cathal A. Lynch with Angel Cruz riding. This four-year-old gelding drops significantly in class, suggesting connections believe he’s ready to graduate.

Unforgettable Lord (#2) represents another strong angle with Kevin Gomez for trainer Clyde W. Martin, Jr. The trainer-jockey combination has shown effectiveness throughout the meet.

Longshot Considerations

My Little Caibo (#5) draws attention with a significant weight reduction to 114 pounds under Joshua Ortiz for trainer Arthur O. Agostini. The apprentice allowance could prove decisive in this competitive maiden event.

Pace Analysis

The six-furlong distance typically produces honest fractions, with tactical speed holding advantages over pure pace setters or deep closers.

Wagering Recommendation

Win/Place: Pump It Up (#6)
Value Exacta: 6-2, 6-5
Longshot Special: My Little Caibo (#5) to hit the board

Race 4 – Claiming (2:21 PM)

Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt
Purse: $15,000
Class: Claiming $7,500

Key Contenders

Happyflyer (#5) receives strong expert backing at 9-5 odds for trainer Monica McGoey with Ismerio Villalobos riding. The three-year-old gelding gets a weight break that could prove decisive in this competitive sprint.

Bearing Down (#6) brings the powerful Charlie Marquez-Bruce Kravets combination that has proven effective throughout the Delaware meet. This four-year-old gelding should appreciate the distance and class level.

Secondary Choices

A Votre Sante (#4) pairs Kevin Gomez with trainer Andrew L. Simoff, representing another reliable combination. The three-year-old gets a minor weight concession that enhances his chances.

Pace Analysis

Sprint races at Delaware Park often favor horses with tactical speed who can stay close to the pace without expending excessive early energy.

Wagering Recommendation

Win: Happyflyer (#5)
Place Safety: Bearing Down (#6)
Exacta Box: 5-6-4

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming Fillies & Mares Turf (2:53 PM)

Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf
Purse: $20,000
Class: Maiden Claiming $16,000

This maiden claiming event for fillies and mares on the Delaware Park turf course features fourteen runners competing at the extended mile distance. The rail positioned at 35 feet indicates firm turf conditions, though several horses have been scratched due to Main-Track-Only preferences.

Morning Line Favorites Analysis

Lady Authentic (#3) – 5/2 Morning Line Favorite
Richard J. Hendriks trains this three-year-old filly with Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. riding at 120 pounds. Her recent form shows consistent placings with two seconds in four starts, earning $21,200. Expert analysis gives her a 22% win probability and 63% show probability, making her the statistical favorite. Her last start produced a second-place finish in a 1 1/16-mile turf race at Tampa Bay Downs, demonstrating her ability to handle distance and surface. The “Fastest Leader” style designation suggests she’ll press the early pace.

Lyric Street (#11) – 7/2 Second Choice
Trainer Elliot Sullivan sends out this filly with leading jockey Sonny Leon aboard. With $112,924 in career earnings from 14 starts and a strong record of 0-3-6, she represents the most experienced runner in the field. Her recent form includes a fifth-place finish in a one-mile turf race and a second at Penn National over the same distance. The 14% win probability and 43% show probability ranks second-best in the field statistically. Her “Fast Stalker” running style positions her perfectly for the turf distance.

Key Contenders Analysis

My Gal (#2) – 6/1 Third Choice
Victor R. Carrasco rides for his father, trainer Victor Carrasco, Jr., creating a family connection that often produces results. This filly shows consistent form with two show finishes in five starts and $74,700 in earnings. Her recent fourth-place finish over one mile at Delaware Park demonstrates local familiarity. The “Fast Closer style could be effective if early pace develops honestly.

Dona Luna (#10) – 8/1
Justin Rivera trains with Madeline Rowland riding this three-year-old filly. Despite six starts without a win, she’s earned $27,180 and shows consistent effort. Her “Fast Stalker” style matches well with the distance and surface. Recent form includes a seventh-place finish in a six-furlong dirt race, indicating versatility.

Longshot Considerations

Hit Song (#14) – 8/1
Monica McGoey trains this filly with Jose E. Vargas riding at the reduced weight of 113 pounds. With $80,890 in career earnings from 18 starts and a record of 0-2-5, she brings the most experience to the race. Her “Fast Stalker” style and proven turf form, including recent efforts at Laurel Park, make her a legitimate contender at generous odds.

Maddie’s Notion (#9) – 8/1
Jaclyn Reed trains this filly making just her second career start with Raul E. Mena riding. Her debut resulted in a fourth-place finish over one mile on dirt at Delaware Park, showing promise. The surface switch to turf could unlock improvement.

Pace Analysis

The race features multiple “Fast” horses including Lady Authentic (Fastest Leader), My Gal (Fast Closer), Forget Tomorrow (Fast Closer), Lady Raven (Fast Deep), Dona Luna (Fast Stalker), Lyric Street (Fast Stalker), and Hit Song (Fast Stalker). This abundance of speed suggests an honest early pace that will set up closers and stalkers for strong finishes.

Lady Authentic’s “Fastest Leader” designation indicates she’ll likely establish early position, but the presence of multiple stalkers means she’ll face pressure throughout. The extended distance of 1 mile 70 yards favors horses with proven stamina rather than pure speed.

Key Angles

Class Relief: Several horses dropping from higher claiming levels or allowance company could find this $16,000 maiden claiming event within reach.

Surface Specialists: Horses with proven turf form hold distinct advantages over those making surface debuts.

Distance Suitability: The mile-plus distance eliminates pure sprinters and favors horses with proven routing ability.

Weight Advantages: Key Witness carries just 109 pounds with apprentice Jose E. Vargas, while Hit Song and Sheppton Sisters both carry 113 pounds.

Trainer Insights

Richard J. Hendriks (Lady Authentic) has a 10% win rate with 10% in-the-money percentage at the current meet. Elliot Sullivan (Lyric Street) shows 20% in-the-money from five starts. Monica McGoey (Hit Song) maintains a perfect 100% in-the-money rate from limited starts.

Jockey Analysis

Jorge A. Vargas, Jr. (Lady Authentic) brings proven turf experience. Sonny Leon (Lyric Street) has achieved 50% in-the-money from two Delaware Park starts. Kevin Gomez (Lady Raven) leads with 8% wins and 24% in-the-money from 25 starts.

Final Assessment

This competitive maiden turf event appears to favor horses with proven distance ability and turf experience. Lady Authentic’s combination of recent form, surface suitability, and leading connections makes her the logical favorite. However, the 7/2 odds on Lyric Street represent solid value given her extensive experience and strong recent form.

Wagering Recommendations

Win: Lady Authentic (#3) at 5/2 – Best combination of form and connections
Place: Lyric Street (#11) at 7/2 – Strong value with experience edge
Show: My Gal (#2) at 6/1 – Family connections often produce results

Exacta Box: 3-11-2 covering top three choices
Trifecta: 3,11/3,11,2,10/3,11,2,10,14
Longshot Special: Hit Song (#14) at 8/1 for place/show value

Race Strategy: The pace scenario favors stalkers and closers, making Lady Authentic’s speed and Lyric Street’s closing ability the key tactical advantages.

Race 6 – Claiming (3:25 PM)

Distance: 5.5 Furlongs Dirt
Purse: $19,000
Class: Claiming $6,250

Key Contenders

Aint No Joke (#12) receives expert backing at 6-1 odds for trainer Michael V. Simone with Angel Cruz riding. This four-year-old gelding offers solid value in a competitive sprint field.

Inter Miami (#3) brings veteran Carlos Eduardo Lopez for trainer Bruce M. Kravets. The eight-year-old gelding’s recent form suggests readiness for another strong effort.

Secondary Choices

Book Marker (#11) represents another Kravets entry with Charlie Marquez, creating a potent stable combination. The five-year-old gelding could benefit from the aggressive riding style.

Pace Analysis

This appears to be a wide-open sprint where pace dynamics will prove crucial. Several speed horses could create a legitimate speed duel.

Wagering Recommendation

Win: Aint No Joke (#12)
Place: Inter Miami (#3)
Trifecta: 12/3,11/3,11,10

Race 7 – Allowance Turf (3:57 PM)

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Turf
Purse: $46,000
Class: Allowance

The feature race of Delaware Park’s closing week presents a competitive field of 13 three-year-olds and up in the day’s richest allowance event. With firm turf conditions and the rail positioned at 35 feet, this race represents the culmination of Delaware Park’s 2025 season for horses seeking to break through at the allowance level.

Morning Line Analysis & Expert Opinions

Card Trick (#9) – 7/2 Morning Line Favorite
Edward T. Allard trains this four-year-old colt with Kevin Gomez riding at 121 pounds. With earnings of $316,704 from 24 starts and a record of 5-11-12, he brings proven class to this allowance test. His “Fast Closer” running style perfectly suits the distance, and recent form shows a fifth in a 1 1/16-mile dirt race at Delaware Park followed by consistent efforts. Expert analysis gives him 20% win probability and 31% place chances, but betting analysis suggests he may be overbet at current odds.

California Tiger (#10) – 9/2 Second Choice
Jamie Ness, Delaware Park’s leading trainer, saddles this five-year-old gelding with Martin Chuan aboard. With impressive career earnings of $476,970 from 33 starts and a solid record of 6-16-19, he represents proven class. His “Fast Stalker” style should position him well for the distance, and recent form includes a sixth in the same 1 1/16-mile dirt race as Card Trick, plus a victory in a turf route at Delaware Park. The Ness-Chuan combination has been highly effective throughout the meet.

Dylan’s Ruby (#7) – 5/1 Third Choice
John C. Servis trains this four-year-old gelding with leading rider Samuel Marin aboard. With $207,950 in career earnings and a “Fast Stalker” designation, he fits the tactical profile for turf route success. His 14-29-45 speed figures suggest competitive ability, and Marin’s 23% win rate adds confidence.

Value Analysis & Algorithm Picks

Admiral Mo (#6) – 10/1 Morning Line
Kelly J. Breen trains this three-year-old colt with Luis R. Rivera, Jr. riding at the reduced weight of 118 pounds. Expert handicapping identifies him as the top algorithmic choice despite 10/1 odds. With a perfect 2-3-3 record showing 67% win rate and 100% in-the-money percentage, he’s been ultra-consistent. His “Slowest Stalker” style could prove effective if the pace develops honestly. The weight concession and class relief from recent stakes attempts make him extremely attractive at current odds.

Kalahari Not Sorry (#3) – 8/1
Kathleen A. Demasi trains with Jomar Torres riding this four-year-old gelding. His recent form shows consecutive seconds, including efforts at Penn National in 1 1/16-mile events. The “Fast Leader” style indicates he’ll press the early pace, and his 11-24-37 speed figures suggest competitive ability. Expert analysis ranks him third in expected finish order.

Secondary Contenders

Souper Crunchy (#4) – 8/1
Michael J. Trombetta, a proven turf trainer, sends out this four-year-old gelding with Ismerio Villalobos riding. Recent wins at Laurel Park in turf routes demonstrate surface suitability. His “Mid Pack Stalker” style and Trombetta’s 18% win rate with 42% in-the-money percentage provide solid backing.

Trevesso (#2) – 6/1
Cathal A. Lynch trains with Angel Cruz aboard this four-year-old gelding. With $248,960 in career earnings and a “Fast Deep” closing style, he brings proven class. Recent fourth-place finish in dirt racing at Delaware Park followed by turf form at Penn National indicates versatility.

Amity Road (#11) – 6/1
Jamie Ness’s second runner with Martin Chuan riding represents serious stable intentions. This six-year-old gelding has earned $754,238 with an impressive 11-20-24 record. His “Fast Closer” style and proven distance ability make him a logical contender, though recent form has been inconsistent.

Longshot Analysis

Brighty (#13) – 10/1
Milan Milosevic trains with J.G. Torrealba riding this four-year-old gelding. Recent wins at Laurel Park in turf routes demonstrate surface and distance suitability. His “Slower Closer” style could benefit from an honest pace scenario.

Lost and Confused (#5) – 8/1
Philip T. Aristone trains with Andy Hernandez aboard this four-year-old gelding. With $309,110 in career earnings and recent wins at Parx Racing, he brings legitimate credentials. The “Fast Closer” designation suits the tactical setup.

Pace Analysis

The race features multiple speed types creating an intriguing tactical scenario. Kalahari Not Sorry as the “Fast Leader” will likely establish early fractions, while California Tiger and Dylan’s Ruby as “Fast Stalkers” should press the pace. The abundance of closers including Card TrickAmity RoadTrevesso, and Lost and Confused suggests the early pace will be contested but not suicidal.

The 1 1/16-mile distance allows sufficient time for tactical positioning, favoring horses with proven stamina over pure speed types. With the rail at 35 feet on firm turf, inside post positions hold slight advantages for tactical positioning around the far turn.

Key Angles & Connections

Trainer Advantages: Jamie Ness leads all Delaware Park trainers with 68 wins and nearly $1.5 million in earnings, making his double entry significant. Michael J. Trombetta brings proven turf expertise with Souper Crunchy.

Jockey Analysis: Samuel Marin leads with 23% wins, Kevin Gomez provides consistent 13% wins with 40% in-the-money, and the Chuan-Ness combination has proven highly effective.

Class Relief: Several horses dropping from higher-level competition could find this allowance level within reach, particularly Admiral Mo stepping back from stakes attempts.

Surface Specialists: Horses with proven turf form, including California Tiger’s recent Delaware Park turf victory and Souper Crunchy’s Laurel Park turf wins, hold distinct advantages.

Final Assessment

This competitive allowance feature presents excellent value opportunities with several horses offering legitimate winning chances at generous odds. Admiral Mo represents the best value as the algorithmic top choice at 10/1, while California Tiger brings the meet’s leading trainer and proven turf form. Card Trick’s favoritism appears justified by consistent recent form, but the odds may not reflect true winning probability.

Wagering Recommendations

Win Bet: Admiral Mo (#6) at 10/1 – Best value as algorithmic top choice with class relief
Place Safety: California Tiger (#10) at 9/2 – Leading trainer with proven turf form
Show Consideration: Card Trick (#9) at 7/2 – Consistent recent form but short odds

Exacta Strategy:

  • Value Box: 6-10-3 covering top algorithmic choices
  • Longshot Special: 6/9,10,7 keying Admiral Mo over favorites

Trifecta Approach:

  • Conservative: 6,9,10/6,9,10,3,7/6,9,10,3,7,4
  • Aggressive: 6/9,10,3,7/ALL for maximum value

Superfecta Recommendation: 6/9,10/3,7,11,4/ALL based on algorithmic and expert analysis

Win-Place Strategy: Admiral Mo (#6) to win with California Tiger (#10) to place, providing solid value coverage of the two strongest connections and form angles.

The race setup favors closers and stalkers with tactical speed, making Admiral Mo’s “Slowest Stalker” style particularly appealing if early fractions develop honestly.

Race 8 – Starter Optional Claiming (4:29 PM)

Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt
Purse: $25,000
Class: Starter Optional Claiming

Key Contenders

Yodel E. A. Who (#9) receives expert attention at 4-1 odds for leading trainer Jamie Ness with Martin Chuan riding. This nine-year-old gelding brings extensive experience and the meet’s leading connections.

Lonely Ride (#5) represents trainer Enrique Hernandez with Sonny Leon aboard. The four-year-old gelding’s recent form suggests competitiveness at this level.

Secondary Choices

Crabcakes N Beer (#1) pairs Victor R. Carrasco with trainer Victor Carrasco, Jr., representing a family operation with local knowledge.

Pace Analysis

The extended distance should allow for tactical development, favoring horses with proven stamina and finishing ability.

Wagering Recommendation

Win: Yodel E. A. Who (#9)
Place: Lonely Ride (#5)
Exacta: 9-5, 5-9

Race 9 – Starter Optional Claiming (5:01 PM)

Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt
Purse: $25,000
Class: Starter Optional Claiming

Key Contenders

Cathedral Beach (#1) commands expert support at 5-2 odds for trainer Panagiotis A. Synnefias with Samuel Marin riding. This six-year-old gelding appears well-positioned for the closing sprint.

Sunset Town (#5) brings Charlie Marquez and Bruce Kravets together again, maintaining the combination’s effectiveness throughout the card.

Closing Race Dynamics

Final race excitement often produces surprising results, with bettors looking for solid closing plays.

Wagering Recommendation

Win/Place: Cathedral Beach (#1)
Saver: Sunset Town (#5)
Exacta: 1-5, 5-1

Jockey Notes

Angel Cruz continues his strong Delaware Park campaign with multiple quality mounts today, particularly Dissolute (#8 in Race 2) and Pump It Up (#6 in Race 3). Cruz has maintained consistent win percentages throughout the meet.

Charlie Marquez rides for Bruce Kravets in multiple races, including Sin Sin (#1 in Race 1) and Bearing Down (#6 in Race 4). The combination has proven effective throughout the Delaware season.

Kevin Gomez secures quality mounts including Card Trick (#9 in Race 7), representing his ongoing success at the Delaware meet.

Trainer Notes

Bruce M. Kravets saddles multiple horses across the card, demonstrating the stable’s depth and commitment to the Delaware meet. With 139 starts and earnings exceeding $476,000, Kravets maintains strong statistical support.

Jamie Ness leads all Delaware Park trainers with 68 wins and nearly $1.5 million in earnings. Yodel E. A. Who (#9 in Race 8) represents his best chance for another victory.

Cathal A. Lynch sends out Dissolute (#8 in Race 2) and Pump It Up (#6 in Race 3), both receiving expert support. Lynch has shown strong recent form at Delaware Park.

Best Wagering Strategies

Conservative Approach

Focus on expert consensus picks including Naymar (#3 in Race 1), Dissolute (#8 in Race 2), and Happyflyer (#5 in Race 4) for steady returns.

Value Hunting

Target Aint No Joke (#12 in Race 6) at 6-1 odds and Admiral Mo (#6 in Race 7) for allowance value.

Multi-Race Wagers

Consider Pick 3 sequences combining strong favorites with value overlays:

  • Races 1-2-3: 3/8/6
  • Races 4-5-6: 5/3/12

Daily Double Opportunities

Late Double (Races 8-9): 9/1 combining Yodel E. A. Who with Cathedral Beach for solid closing value.

Risk Management

Weather conditions and track surface changes could impact turf races, making dirt alternatives safer betting propositions.

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