Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

The card at Delta Downs for Thursday, December 11, 2025, features an eight-race program primarily composed of claiming and allowance events on the dirt. The highlight of the evening is Race 7, an allowance contest for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares going 6 1/2 furlongs. With large fields in several races, including a competitive 12-horse field in the finale, handicappers will need to navigate traffic trouble and post-position biases carefully.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast: Vinton, Louisiana is expecting clear and sunny skies for race day. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 60s (approx. 62°F) with a cool evening dropping into the 50s.
Track Condition: The dirt track is expected to be Fast.
Track Bias: Delta Downs is a 6-furlong bullring configuration that historically favors early speed and inside post positions.

• 5 Furlongs: The rail and inside posts (1-4) are extremely advantageous. Early speed is the dominant factor, with wire-to-wire winners occurring frequently (approx. 39% of the time).
• 6.5 Furlongs & 1 Mile: While speed is still dangerous, the longer run down the backstretch allows stalkers to sit just off the pace. However, wide trips are often fatal on this tight track; ground loss on the turns is difficult to overcome.

Race 1

Post Time: 04:45 PM CST
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Class: Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

This two-turn mile event for lower-level claimers features a mix of stretching-out sprinters and grinding routers. Indy Charge has shown flashes of early foot and may try to clear from the middle gate. Drobny possesses tactical speed and should be forwardly placed going into the first turn. After the Game is another who can be close to the pace, ensuring a moderate to honest tempo.

Key Contenders

After the Game
Listed as a top selection by multiple handicappers, this 3-year-old gelding has shown the ability to handle the distance and fits well at this claiming level. His tactical speed is a major asset on the bullring.

Drobny
A consistent runner who figures to be in the mix from the start. His speed figures are competitive for this field, and he projects to sit a perfect stalking trip just off the early leaders.

Secondary Choices

Mr Ramirez
While listed at longer odds, he has a mid-pack stalking style that could pick up the pieces if the pace heats up. He needs a clean trip to factor in the exotics.

Indy Charge
Comes from the high-percentage barn of Jonathan Wong. If he can secure the lead or a rail spot early, he becomes a dangerous threat to wire the field, though the distance is a question mark.

Longshots

Silver Redesdale
A price horse who has shown occasional late interest. He would need a pace collapse to hit the board but offers value for vertical wagers.

Betting Strategy

Focus on the horses with tactical speed who can save ground into the first turn. After the Game and Drobny look like the safest pillars for multi-race wagers.

Selections

Win: After the Game
Place: Drobny
Show: Indy Charge

Race 2

Post Time: 05:15 PM CST
Distance: 5 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $4,000

Pace Analysis

At 5 furlongs, the break is critical. Going the Distance has shown excellent early speed and should be sent hard from the middle gate. Fouralivia draws outside but has the gas to cross over. Debbies Passage from the rail must break sharp to utilize the inside advantage.

Key Contenders

Going the Distance
A consensus top pick, this mare has the speed profile that thrives at Delta Downs. If she breaks cleanly, she could prove difficult to catch over this 5-furlong sprint.

City Ghost
Offers strong speed figures and is capable of pressing the pace. She is a major threat to win if the top choice falters or gets caught in a duel.

Secondary Choices

Debbies Passage
Draws the coveted rail post. In 5-furlong sprints at Delta, the inside post is a significant advantage. If she shows any early life, she will be in the hunt.

Fouralivia
Has competitive back class but must overcome the outside post. Her jockey will need to be aggressive early to avoid getting hung wide on the first turn.

Longshots

Sis Boom Bob
A price play who could sneak into the exotics if the pace melts down, though that is less likely at this short distance.

Betting Strategy

Speed is king here. A Win bet on Going the Distance is the primary play, but boxing her with City Ghost and the rail horse Debbies Passage is a solid exacta strategy.

Selections

Win: Going the Distance
Place: City Ghost
Show: Debbies Passage

Race 3

Post Time: 05:43 PM CST
Distance: 7 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Maiden Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

Maiden races at 7 furlongs can be chaotic. Onedayatatime has shown enough early foot to suggest she will be forward. The Lady Bulls Eye also figures to be involved early. The extended sprint distance often tests the stamina of these lower-level maidens, potentially setting it up for a grinder.

Key Contenders

Onedayatatime
Rates as a strong contender in this soft spot. She has been knocking on the door and faces a field with little established form. Her experience at the track should serve her well.

The Lady Bulls Eye
Consistently in the mix and should appreciate the company lines here. She has the tactical speed to secure a good position early.

Secondary Choices

Lundigrasmambo
Listed as an Also-Eligible; check scratches carefully. If she draws in, her recent form suggests she fits well with this group.

She’s a Target
A potential improver who could wake up at a price. In a field of maidens, “unknown” potential is sometimes better than “proven” failure.

Longshots

Alessande
Has been working steadily but will need to improve significantly on previous efforts to challenge for the win.

Betting Strategy

This is a race to tread lightly. Onedayatatime looks like the most likely winner, but the reliability of this class is low. Keep bets small.

Selections

Win: Onedayatatime
Place: The Lady Bulls Eye
Show: She’s a Target

Race 4

Post Time: 06:11 PM CST
Distance: 7 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Starter Allowance

Pace Analysis

Polterer is a confirmed front-runner who draws the rail. The strategy will likely be “catch me if you can.” Absolute Chaos and Path to Success will be tasked with keeping him honest. The 7 1/2 furlong distance around two turns favors horses who can get the jump into the first turn.

Key Contenders

Polterer
The horse to beat. Drawing the rail with speed in a two-turn race at Delta is a winning formula. He should control the tempo from the bell.

Absolute Chaos
The main danger. He has the class to run with these and should be sitting in the garden spot just behind the speed. If Polterer tires, he will be the first to pounce.

Secondary Choices

Path to Success
Another contender from the Wong barn (if applicable). He fits on speed figures but may find himself third-best behind the top two pace players.

Foxtrot Harry
A steady runner who can clunk up for a share, but he may lack the turn-of-foot to win unless the pace collapses.

Longshots

Keys Included
Would need a complete pace meltdown to factor for the win, but could round out the superfecta at a big price.

Betting Strategy

A potential cold Exacta: Polterer over Absolute Chaos. The race shape sets up perfectly for the inside speed to wire the field.

Selections

Win: Polterer
Place: Absolute Chaos
Show: Path to Success

Race 5

Post Time: 06:39 PM CST
Distance: 7 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $10,000

Pace Analysis

Cowan brings significant back class and speed to this field. He should be involved early along with Harry’s Onthefly. The 7-furlong distance requires stamina, so a contested pace could open the door for a stalker like French Composer.

Key Contenders

Cowan
Clearly the class of the field on paper. He drops into a spot where he should be dominant if he retains his old form. His speed figures tower over most of these.

French Composer
A reliable check-earner who runs his race every time. He should be running late and is a logical candidate to hit the board.

Secondary Choices

Play Mo
Has shown good form recently and fits this claiming level. A solid exotic filler.

Harry’s Onthefly
Will likely be part of the early pace scenario. If Cowan doesn’t fire, he could inherit the lead and take them a long way.

Longshots

Iron in the Fire
A deep closer who needs a lot of luck but could pass tired horses late to grab fourth.

Betting Strategy

Cowan is likely to be a short price but is the most probable winner on the card. Use him as a single in multi-race wagers.

Selections

Win: Cowan
Place: French Composer
Show: Play Mo

Race 6

Post Time: 07:04 PM CST
Distance: 1 Mile Dirt
Class: Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

A compact field of seven goes a mile. Crystal d’Oro and Little Z appear to be the main speed influences. In a small field, the pace is often slow, which would favor the horse on the lead. Crystal d’Oro looks poised to control things.

Key Contenders

Crystal d’Oro
Rates as the one to catch. She has shown the ability to handle the distance and should find the lead comfortably against this group.

Little Z
The primary challenger. She can press the pace or sit just off it. If the top choice faces unexpected pressure, Little Z is the likely beneficiary.

Secondary Choices

Cece Wave
A grinder who will be plugging away at the end. The small field helps her chances of getting a piece of the purse.

Lacis Jewel
Has been inconsistent but has races in her past that would be competitive here.

Longshots

Lovers Never Say
Seems outclassed on paper and would need a career-best effort to threaten the top two.

Betting Strategy

Another race where the pace scenario points to the front-runner. Crystal d’Oro looks solid. An Exacta box of the top two is a safe play.

Selections

Win: Crystal d’Oro
Place: Little Z
Show: Cece Wave

Race 7

Post Time: 07:32 PM CST
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Allowance

Pace Analysis

The feature race of the day. Basile has shown speed and talent in previous starts. Runtolive and Raise the Alarm also possess early foot. This race should have an honest pace, testing the quality of these allowance runners.

Key Contenders

Basile
The consensus choice. She has been running against tougher company and finds a suitable spot here. Her speed fits the track profile perfectly.

Runtolive
A consistent filly who rarely runs a bad race. She should be in the firing line throughout and offers good value as a secondary option.

Secondary Choices

Raise the Alarm
Comes from a respected barn and has the speed to be dangerous. She may try to steal it on the front end.

Crawfish Burl
A cut below the top tier on speed figures but is capable of filling out the trifecta or superfecta at a price.

Longshots

Deal With It
Faces a steep class hike and would be a surprise winner.

Betting Strategy

Basile is the class of the field. A Win bet is warranted. For value, key her in trifectas over Runtolive and Raise the Alarm.

Selections

Win: Basile
Place: Runtolive
Show: Raise the Alarm

Race 8

Post Time: 08:00 PM CST
Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Class: Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

A full field of 12 to close the card. Traffic will be a major issue. Auto Dial and Flame Rock Fire have shown speed. From the outside posts, horses will have to send hard to avoid getting parked wide. Expect a fast pace that could set up for a closer.

Key Contenders

Auto Dial
Has the speed to overcome a mid-pack draw and has been running consistently at this level. He looks like the safest play in a wide-open finale.

Flame Rock Fire
Another speed threat who figures to be right there at the wire. If he can clear the field early, he will be tough to run down.

Secondary Choices

North of Bali
A veteran who knows how to find the winners’ circle. He draws a bit wide but has the class to compete.

Unshakeable Proof
A younger horse with upside. Could improve in this spot and offers potential value.

Longshots

Plutonium
Drawing the rail in a 12-horse field is tricky if you don’t break, but if he saves ground, he could sneak up the rail for a share at huge odds.

Betting Strategy

Spread deep in the final leg of the Pick 4. Auto Dial and Flame Rock Fire are the top keys, but this race is ripe for chaos.

Selections

Win: Auto Dial
Place: Flame Rock Fire
Show: North of Bali

Jockey Notes and Insights

Key Riders to Watch:

• Timothy Thornton: Consistently one of the top riders at Delta Downs. When he is on a speed horse (like Drobny in Race 1), it is an automatic upgrade.
• Vicente Del-Cid: A dominant force in the colony. His mounts are often live, particularly in sprints where his aggressive gate riding is a major asset. Look for him on Going the Distance (Race 2) and Keys Included (Race 4).
• Juan P. Vargas: Riding well and often teams up with live longshots.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Barns to Follow:

• Jonathan Wong: A high-percentage trainer who places his horses aggressively. His entries today, such as Indy Charge (Race 1) and Path to Success (Race 4), should be respected regardless of odds.
• Juan Munoz Cano: Often sends out live runners in claiming sprints. His entry Cowan in Race 5 looks particularly formidable.
• Allen Landry: A staple of the Louisiana circuit. His horses are usually fit and ready, especially in state-bred races.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Best Bet of the Day:
Polterer (Race 4). The combination of inside speed, the rail draw, and the two-turn configuration at Delta Downs makes him a standout. He should control the race from start to finish.

Best Value Play:
City Ghost (Race 2). While Going the Distance is the likely favorite, City Ghost has the tactical speed to sit the perfect trip. If the favorite gets involved in a speed duel, City Ghost will be the one moving best late at a square price.

Pick 4 Ticket Strategy (Races 5-8):

• Race 5: 1 (Cowan)
• Race 6: 4 (Crystal d’Oro), 3 (Little Z)
• Race 7: 6 (Basile), 7 (Runtolive)
• Race 8: 9 (Auto Dial), 12 (Flame Rock Fire), 8 (North of Bali), 10 (Unshakeable Proof)
• Ticket Cost for $0.50 play: $8.00