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Delta Downs presents a nine-race thoroughbred card on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, featuring a stakes event in Race 8, the $100,000 Rosewater Stakes for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares. The program offers competitive racing across multiple classes including maiden special weight, allowance, claiming, and stakes events. Field sizes range from six to twelve runners, providing solid wagering opportunities throughout the afternoon and evening. The card emphasizes sprint distances with five races at five furlongs, two races at 7.5 furlongs, one race at one mile, and one race at 6.5 furlongs. Louisiana-bred incentives appear in Races 3 and 7 with additional purse money, attracting quality state-bred stock.
Weather and Track Conditions
December weather in Vinton, Louisiana typically features mild temperatures in the mid-70s to low-80s range with light winds and minimal precipitation risk. Forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with humidity levels around 60-70 percent. The track surface at Delta Downs consists of a sand and clay mixture with a limestone base, providing a consistent racing surface during dry conditions. The all-dirt card should benefit from the favorable weather with fast track conditions likely throughout the race day. No weather-related track condition changes are anticipated based on current forecasts.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Delta Downs operates as a tight six-furlong bullring configuration with a relatively short 660-foot stretch run that historically favors frontrunners and tactical speed. Current meet statistics demonstrate pronounced bias patterns that significantly impact handicapping strategy.
At five furlongs on dirt, approximately 35-39 percent of winners go wire-to-wire, making early speed and inside post position critical factors. Posts one through four hold measurable advantages at this distance, with the rail providing maximum ground-saving benefits. Horses breaking from wide posts seven through ten face substantial ground-loss disadvantages unless they possess exceptional gate speed to clear the field before the first turn.
At 6.5 furlongs, the chute start allows for a slightly fairer run down the backstretch, with stalkers having improved chances compared to five-furlong sprints. However, wide trips around the tight turns remain problematic, and the inside path continues to offer advantages. Approximately 28 percent of winners at this distance lead throughout.
For two-turn routes at one mile, the bias diminishes somewhat but inside posts still provide tactical benefits. Only 23 percent of route winners go wire-to-wire, allowing mid-pack stalkers and closers better opportunities if the pace collapses. The key to success in routes involves securing favorable position through both turns while saving ground.
The average field size of nine runners creates manageable but competitive races where post position and tactical speed combine to form primary handicapping factors.
Race 1
Post Time
12:00 PM
Pace Analysis
This five-furlong maiden special weight for fillies and mares three years old and upward features seven runners with several showing early speed tendencies. Sayyoulovemebaby from post five has demonstrated fastest leader style in previous starts and should secure forward position. Blackjack Mary from post two shows fast leads capability and will likely press the pace from the inside. Sassi Idol from post three brings mid-pack stalker style with tactical speed. The short sprint distance heavily favors horses that break cleanly and secure inside position, making gate speed paramount.
Key Contenders
Blackjack Mary represents the powerful Asmussen barn with Paco Lopez riding. This three-year-old filly shows fast leads style and draws favorable inside post two. The Asmussen-Lopez combination produces consistent results, and the inside post provides tactical advantage. Despite being a maiden, the connections and running style suit this distance and track configuration.
Sayyoulovemebaby has hit the board in both career starts with fastest leader style. The filly shows 100 percent in-the-money record and draws mid-pack post five with Julio Ramirez Jr. aboard. The tactical speed and consistent hitting of the board make this filly dangerous at short odds.
Secondary Choices
Sassi Idol has 10 career starts with zero wins but five third-place finishes, showing mid-pack stalker tendencies. Carlos Perez rides for trainer Lee Thomas, and the post three position allows tactical options. The consistent hitting of the board at 50 percent suggests this filly can factor at a price.
Opaque from post one draws the rail with Thomas Pompell riding for Brett Brinkman. The inside post provides maximum ground-saving advantage, and the closer style might benefit if the pace collapses in the stretch.
Longshots
Dreamchaser Jewels shows slower deep closing style but has hit the board in seven of 16 career starts. The outside post seven presents challenges, but Juan Vargas has solid statistics at the meet and the price will be generous.
Betting Strategy
The five-furlong sprint heavily favors inside speed, making the combination of post position and early foot critical. Exacta and trifecta wagers should emphasize horses with tactical speed drawn inside. The Asmussen-trained Blackjack Mary appears the most likely winner based on connections and running style alignment with track bias.
Selections
Win: Blackjack Mary
Place: Sayyoulovemebaby
Show: Sassi Idol
Race 2
Post Time
12:28 PM
Pace Analysis
This five-furlong allowance for fillies and mares features six runners with several showing forwardly placed running styles. Our Keepsake from post four demonstrates fastest leads capability and should secure early position. Moon Mist from post one shows slower leads style but the rail post provides advantage. Beautiful Mischief from post two brings mid-pack leads style with tactical speed. The short distance amplifies the importance of breaking cleanly and securing forward position.
Key Contenders
Our Keepsake has 22 career starts with two wins and 12 board hits, showing 55 percent in-the-money record. Jansen Melancon rides for trainer Allen Landry, and the post four draw provides tactical flexibility. The fastest leads style suits this five-furlong distance, and the connections have demonstrated success throughout the meet.
Moon Mist has six career starts with three wins and four board hits, showing 67 percent in-the-money record. Vicente Del-Cid rides from the rail post one, providing maximum ground-saving advantage. The slower leads style might actually benefit if the pace becomes too hot up front.
Secondary Choices
Beautiful Mischief has 17 starts with two wins and seven board hits, showing solid mid-pack leads style. Thomas Pompell rides for Brett Brinkman, and post two provides inside advantage. The 12 percent win rate suggests this filly can factor at a price.
Black Ginger from post five shows slower deep closing style with Paco Lopez riding for Elias Lopez. The outside post presents challenges but Lopez provides jockey upgrade that could improve performance.
Longshots
Jilly’s West from post six has two wins from 18 starts with slower leader style. Elio Barrera rides for Antonio Alberto, and the outside post will require aggressive early ride to avoid wide trip.
Betting Strategy
The allowance condition attracts competitive fields, but the five-furlong distance still heavily favors early speed and inside posts. Our Keepsake appears the most logical winner based on tactical speed and favorable post position. Horizontal wagers should key this filly while using Moon Mist and Beautiful Mischief underneath.
Selections
Win: Our Keepsake
Place: Moon Mist
Show: Beautiful Mischief
Race 3
Post Time
12:56 PM
Pace Analysis
This 7.5-furlong maiden special weight for accredited Louisiana-bred two-year-olds features nine runners competing around two turns. Unlawful from post one shows fast stalker style and should secure forward position. Mogumbeaux from post two has limited data but draws inside post. Sainted from post four shows mid-pack tendencies. The two-turn distance allows stalkers better opportunity than five-furlong sprints, but tactical speed remains important.
Key Contenders
Unlawful has six career starts with zero wins but three third-place finishes, showing 50 percent in-the-money record. Carlos Perez rides for trainer Nicholas Latour, and the rail post provides ground-saving advantage throughout the two-turn journey. The fast stalker style suits this distance, and the consistent hitting of the board suggests this colt is ready to graduate.
Mogumbeaux has limited form but draws post two with Thomas Pompell riding for Brett Brinkman. The inside post advantage and trainer-jockey combination produce consistent results at this meet. The unknown form creates betting value if this colt shows improvement.
Secondary Choices
Sainted from post four has 21 starts with zero wins but consistent mid-pack running style. Elio Barrera rides for Cardel Cormier, and the inside-middle post provides tactical options. The zero win record suggests a price will be available.
No Deal Or Deal from post five shows limited data but Jansen Melancon rides for Carrol Castille. The middle post allows tactical positioning, and the connections have shown ability with young horses.
Longshots
Chatty Milligan from post six has 16 starts with zero wins but shows consistent board hitting. Joel Dominguez rides for Henry Johnson Jr., and the middle post provides options. The 0-for-16 record will create generous odds.
Dr. Dean from post nine shows Edward Santiago riding for Benard Chatters. The outside post presents challenges but the price will be substantial.
Betting Strategy
The Louisiana-bred maiden route often produces logical winners based on consistent form. Unlawful appears the most likely winner based on tactical speed, inside post, and consistent board hitting. The exacta and trifecta should emphasize horses with inside posts and tactical speed. Mogumbeaux represents the unknown factor that could provide value at a price.
Selections
Win: Unlawful
Place: Mogumbeaux
Show: Sainted
Race 4
Post Time
1:24 PM
Pace Analysis
This 7.5-furlong claiming event for horses that have not won since June 23, 2025 features eight runners competing around two turns. Mobster Gun from post three shows tactical speed with Vicente Del-Cid riding. Sam’s Promise from post two has mid-pack tendencies. Moro Mafia from post seven brings tactical ability. The claiming level and distance create a pace scenario where stalkers have solid opportunities if the early pace is contested.
Key Contenders
Mobster Gun has 39 starts with five wins and 15 board hits, showing consistent form. Vicente Del-Cid maintains 27 percent win rate at the meet, and trainer Randy Degeyter Jr. shows solid statistics in claiming races. The post three position provides tactical flexibility, and the 124-pound weight is manageable for this seven-year-old gelding.
Moro Mafia has 21 starts with three wins and eight board hits, showing 38 percent in-the-money record. Alexander Castillo rides for George Bryant, and the post seven draw requires tactical riding but the connections have demonstrated success at this level.
Secondary Choices
Sam’s Promise from post two has 13 starts with two wins and six board hits. Javier Hernandez rides for Eric Ramaekers, and the inside post provides ground-saving opportunities. The 119-pound weight provides slight advantage.
Sittin On Go from post five has 40 starts with five wins and 13 board hits. Jansen Melancon rides for Randy Degeyter Jr., giving the trainer two entrants in this race. The post five position allows tactical options.
Longshots
Star Ready from post one has 25 starts with three wins and eight board hits. Cristian Alvarado rides for Alfonso Balderas, and the rail post provides advantage. The 116-pound weight is lowest in field.
River Raft from post eight has 18 starts with two wins and five board hits. Juan Vargas rides for Benjamin Zeno, and the outside post will require early speed to avoid wide trip.
Betting Strategy
The claiming condition attracts competitive fields with varied form cycles. Mobster Gun appears the most logical winner based on consistent form, tactical speed, and favorable post position. The exacta should emphasize horses with inside posts and tactical speed. Trainer Degeyter having two entrants suggests the barn# Race Day Overview – Delta Downs – December 23, 2025
Delta Downs presents a nine-race thoroughbred card on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, featuring the $100,000 Rosewater Stakes for accredited Louisiana-bred fillies and mares in Race 8. The program includes a mix of maiden special weight events, allowance races, and claiming contests across distances ranging from five furlongs to one mile. With purses totaling over $350,000, the card offers substantial opportunities for horsemen and handicappers alike. The tight six-furlong bullring configuration will test tactical positioning throughout the afternoon, particularly in sprint races where early speed dominates.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Vinton, Louisiana calls for partly cloudy skies with temperatures reaching the upper 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit. Light and variable winds will create minimal impact on racing conditions. No precipitation is expected, suggesting a fast main track surface throughout the card. The Delta Downs surface consists of a sand and clay mixture with a limestone base, providing a consistent racing strip when dry. With humidity levels moderate and no recent rainfall, the track should play fair while maintaining its characteristic speed bias, particularly in sprint distances.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Delta Downs operates as one of the tightest bullrings in American racing, featuring a 660-foot stretch run that heavily favors forwardly-placed horses. Current meet statistics demonstrate pronounced biases that handicappers must incorporate into their analysis. At five furlongs on dirt, approximately 35 percent of winners navigate the distance wire-to-wire, with inside posts one through four holding measurable advantages. The short run to the first turn makes early positioning critical, as horses breaking from outside posts seven through nine face significant ground-loss disadvantages unless they possess exceptional gate speed.
At six and one-half furlongs, the wire-to-wire percentage declines to 28 percent, allowing stalkers to mount effective challenges. However, wide trips remain detrimental across all distances due to the sharp turns and short stretch. For one-mile routes, tactical speed remains essential, though the extended two-turn configuration provides modest opportunities for mid-pack closers who save ground through the first turn. Post position six has shown surprising profitability across all distances, suggesting that tactical riders can overcome moderate outside draws with aggressive early positioning.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 12:00 PM
Pace Analysis
This five-furlong sprint for three-year-old fillies features multiple horses showing early liveliness in workouts and past performances. Sayyoulovemebaby from post five has demonstrated sharp gate speed in both career starts, breaking on top in her most recent effort before settling for second. Blackjack Mary from post two also shows forward-running tendencies based on her race shape data. The short distance will compress the field early, making the first quarter-mile critical for establishing position.
Key Contenders
Blackjack Mary represents the powerful Asmussen barn and draws favorably inside with Paco Lopez retaining the mount. This daughter of Black Jack has shown professional development in two starts, pressing the pace before finishing third last out at Remington Park. The cutback to five furlongs suits her running style, and Lopez maintains a 14 percent win rate when teaming with Asmussen at this meet. The inside post provides ground-saving opportunities throughout the short sprint.
Sayyoulovemebaby enters with solid form for trainer Benard Chatters, having hit the board in both starts while showing early speed. The three-year-old filly pressed a solid pace last out before finishing second at Evangeline, and the shorter distance should enhance her chances of carrying speed to the wire. Julio Ramirez Jr. maintains a 9 percent win rate but shows improvement when riding for Chatters.
Secondary Choices
Sassi Idol has compiled ten career starts with zero wins but five third-place finishes, suggesting consistent but limited upside. Carlos Perez rides for trainer Lee Thomas, and the filly has stalked solid paces in recent efforts. The outside post seven creates a challenging trip, but her mid-pack stalking style could benefit if the pace collapses late.
Opaque from the rail shows modest ability in four starts but has yet to threaten seriously. Thomas Pompell rides for trainer Brett Brinkman, who maintains a 22 percent win rate at the meet. The inside post provides tactical advantages, though the filly must improve her early speed to capitalize.
Longshots
Dreamchaser Jewels has failed to win in sixteen career starts but has hit the board in seven efforts. The price will be generous, and the filly has shown closing ability at this distance. Juan Vargas rides for trainer Rickey Castille, and the outside post ten requires a perfect trip.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The five-furlong distance heavily favors early speed, making the inside posts critical. Exacta and trifecta wagers should emphasize horses breaking from posts one through five. A key-box strategy using Blackjack Mary and Sayyoulovemebaby over Sassi Idol and Opaque provides coverage of the main contenders while capitalizing on the likely pace scenario.
Selections
Win: Blackjack Mary
Place: Sayyoulovemebaby
Show: Sassi Idol
Race 2 – Allowance
Post Time: 12:28 PM
Pace Analysis
This allowance for fillies and mares never having won three races features a competitive field with multiple pace scenarios possible. Our Keepsake from post four has established herself as a front-running threat, while Moon Mist from the rail and Beautiful Mischief from post two show stalking tendencies. The five-furlong distance will test early speed reserves, making the half-mile mark critical for determining which horses can sustain their bids.
Key Contenders
Our Keepsake stands as the logical favorite based on her consistent form and tactical speed. Allen Landry trains the four-year-old filly who has hit the board in twelve of twenty-two career starts, including a sharp second last out at this distance. Jansen Melancon rides and maintains a 15 percent win rate when teaming with Landry. The inside post four provides ground-saving position throughout the short sprint, and the filly’s fastest-leader designation suggests she can control the pace.
Moon Mist has won three of six starts and shows excellent form for trainer Eduardo Ramirez. Vicente Del-Cid retains the mount, and the filly has demonstrated ability to lead or stalk from close range. The rail post provides maximum ground-saving benefits, and her 50 percent win rate makes her dangerous if allowed to control fractions.
Secondary Choices
Beautiful Mischief brings solid back class for trainer Brett Brinkman, having competed in stakes company previously. Thomas Pompell rides, and the filly has shown mid-pack leadership abilities. The inside post two suits her running style, though she must improve her recent form to threaten the top pair.
Black Ginger from post five represents the Lopez barn and has tactical speed. Paco Lopez rides, and the filly has hit the board in five of eleven starts. The outside post creates a challenging trip but the connections merit respect.
Longshots
Jilly’s West from post six has hit the board in eight of eighteen starts but faces tougher competition here. Elio Barrera rides for trainer Antonio Alberto, and the filly shows mid-pack tendencies that could benefit from a pace meltdown.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The inside posts dominate at this distance, making Our Keepsake and Moon Mist the primary contenders. A straight exacta playing these two horses in either order provides solid value. Trifecta players should add Beautiful Mischief underneath, while superfecta wagers can include Black Ginger for fourth.
Selections
Win: Our Keepsake
Place: Moon Mist
Show: Beautiful Mischief
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time: 12:56 PM
Pace Analysis
This seven and one-half furlong maiden event for accredited Louisiana-bred two-year-olds features a full field of nine runners. The extended distance provides more time for positioning, but the tight turns still penalize wide trips. Unlawful from post one and Mogumbeaux from post two show early foot in workouts, while Ohm Namo from post three and Sainted from post four demonstrate stalking abilities. The pace should be honest but not blistering, allowing mid-pack runners to mount bids.
Key Contenders
Unlawful draws the rail for trainer Nicholas Latour and has shown steady development in six starts, hitting the board in five efforts. Carlos Perez rides, and the gelding has stalked solid paces in recent races. The inside post provides ground-saving opportunities throughout the two-turn journey, and the distance suits his running style. The morning line of 5-2 reflects his consistent form.
Mogumbeaux represents the Brinkman barn and draws favorably inside with Thomas Pompell riding. The two-year-old colt has shown ability in two starts, finishing second last out at this distance. The cutback from one mile should enhance his chances, and Brinkman’s 22 percent win rate at the meet adds confidence.
Secondary Choices
Ohm Namo has shown improvement in recent starts for trainer Scott Gelner, with Kelvin Arana riding. The colt has demonstrated mid-pack stalking ability and could benefit from the added distance. The post three draw provides tactical options.
Sainted from post four represents trainer Cardel Cormier with Elio Barrera riding. The gelding has hit the board in recent efforts and shows consistent form. The inside-middle post suits his running style.
Longshots
Chatty Milligan from post six and Gary P from post seven represent deeper closers who could benefit from a pace collapse. Both have shown ability but need to improve their early positioning to threaten here.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The two-turn distance favors horses with tactical speed who can secure position through the first turn. Unlawful’s inside draw and consistent form make him the key horse in exacta and trifecta wagers. Mogumbeaux provides a solid secondary option for horizontal wagers. The likely honest pace should allow closers some chance, making the trifecta and superfecta pools attractive.
Selections
Win: Unlawful
Place: Mogumbeaux
Show: Ohm Namo
Race 4 – Claiming
Post Time: 1:24 PM
Pace Analysis
This seven and one-half furlong claiming event for horses not having won since June 23, 2025 features a competitive field with multiple early speed types. Mobster Gun from post three and Sittin On Go from post five show consistent front-running tendencies, while Sam’s Promise from post two and Bayou Jam from post four demonstrate stalking abilities. The two-turn configuration will test early speed reserves, making the half-mile mark critical.
Key Contenders
Mobster Gun has won two of his last four starts and shows strong form for trainer Randy Degeyter Jr. Vicente Del-Cid rides, and the seven-year-old gelding has demonstrated ability to control pace at this distance. The post three draw provides tactical flexibility, and the 4-1 morning line offers value for a horse with his recent consistency.
Sittin On Go represents the same Degeyter barn and has hit the board in three of his last four starts. Jansen Melancon rides, and the gelding has shown wire-to-wire ability at this distance. The post five draw is less than ideal but manageable for a horse with his early speed.
Secondary Choices
Sam’s Promise has shown improvement in recent starts for trainer Eric Ramaekers, with Javier Hernandez riding. The four-year-old gelding has stalking ability and could benefit from a pace battle up front. The post two draw provides ground-saving opportunities.
Bayou Jam from post four has tactical speed for trainer Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez, with Timothy Thornton riding. The eight-year-old gelding has hit the board in recent efforts and could surprise at a price.
Longshots
Moro Mafia from post seven and River Raft from post eight represent deeper closers who need pace collapse scenarios. Both have shown ability but face challenging trips from outside posts.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The two-turn distance and competitive field create an attractive exacta and trifecta scenario. Mobster Gun’s tactical speed and inside draw make him the key horse. Sittin On Go provides a solid exacta partner if he can overcome the outside post. Sam’s Bayou Jam underneath in trifecta wagers.
Selections
Win: Mobster Gun
Place: Sittin On Go
Show: Sam’s Promise
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming
Post Time: 1:52 PM
Pace Analysis
This five-furlong maiden claiming event for three-year-olds and upward features a full field of nine runners. The short distance heavily favors early speed, making the break critical. Legendary Dream from post two and He’s a Real Outfit from post three show gate speed in past performances, while Swamp Pop from the rail and Severus Squall from post four demonstrate stalking tendencies. The pace should be contested early, testing the stamina of front-runners.
Key Contenders
Legendary Dream has hit the board in both career starts for trainer Rosa Ramirez, showing improvement last out when second at this distance. Paulina Ramirez rides, and the four-year-old gelding has demonstrated early speed that suits this distance. The post two draw provides tactical advantages.
He’s a Real Outfit drops in class for trainer Richard LeBlanc and draws favorably inside with Juan Vargas riding. The three-year-old gelding has shown ability in limited starts and the class relief should enhance his chances. The 6-1 morning line offers value.
Secondary Choices
Swamp Pop from the rail represents trainer Mark Hibdon with David Cardoso riding. The four-year-old gelding has hit the board in three of seven starts and shows consistent form. The inside post provides ground-saving benefits throughout the short sprint.
Severus Squall from post four has shown improvement in recent starts for trainer Lee Thomas, with Vicente Del-Cid riding. The gelding has mid-pack stalking ability and could benefit from a contested pace.
Longshots
King Zog from post six and Super Taco from post eight represent deeper closers who need perfect trips. Both have shown limited ability but could hit the board at generous prices if the pace collapses.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The five-furlong distance heavily favors early speed and inside posts. Exacta wagers should focus on Legendary Dream and He’s a Real Outfit, with Swamp Pop included in trifecta combinations. The likely fast pace benefits stalkers, making the trifecta pool attractive for value players.
Selections
Win: Legendary Dream
Place: He’s a Real Outfit
Show: Swamp Pop
Race 6 – Claiming
Post Time
2:20 PM
Pace Analysis
This five-furlong sprint for fillies and mares features a clash of speed types. Custom Candy from post five possesses natural early foot and typically leaves the gate running. Custom Punch from post seven also relies on early speed but draws outside her main pace rival, which could force a wide trip or a destructive speed duel. Wings of a Sparrow from post two should secure a perfect stalking position just behind the leaders along the rail. The pace is expected to be hot, potentially setting up for a stalker who can save ground.
Key Contenders
Custom Candy enters in sharp form for trainer Eduardo Ramirez. With Thomas Pompell aboard, she has the speed to clear the inside runners if she breaks cleanly. Her recent form at this level is superior to most of the field, and her “fastest leader” profile matches the track bias perfectly. If she clears the lead early, she may never look back.
Wings of a Sparrow draws the favorable post two for trainer Miguel Garcia and top jockey Timothy Thornton. This three-year-old filly faces older mares but gets a weight break and has shown the ability to sit off the pace and finish. The inside draw allows Thornton to save ground on the turn while the speed horses duel, making her a primary threat in the lane.
Secondary Choices
Destiny’s Grace represents the Juan Larrosa barn with Juan Vargas riding. She is a veteran mare who knows how to win and typically does her best running from mid-pack. If the pace collapses, she will be the one picking up the pieces late.
Piggy Tales Up draws the far outside post nine, which is a significant disadvantage at five furlongs. However, she has decent tactical speed and Alexander Castillo is riding well. She will need a fast break to avoid getting hung wide on the turn.
Longshots
Gap Daddy breaks from the rail and could sneak into the exotics if the rail bias is strong, though her recent speed figures are a step below the top contenders. Give Em Hail Gayle adds speed to the mix but may get caught up in the pace battle.
Betting Strategy
The pace scenario favors Custom Candy if she clears, or Wings of a Sparrow if the pace is too hot. A win bet on Custom Candy is the primary play. For exotics, box Custom Candy and Wings of a Sparrow in the exacta, and use Destiny’s Grace underneath in trifectas.
Selections
Win: Custom Candy
Place: Wings of a Sparrow
Show: Destiny’s Grace
Race 7 – Allowance
Post Time
2:48 PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile two-turn event for Louisiana-bred fillies and mares often features a more moderate pace than the sprints. Gimme It All from post six has shown speed in routes and may try to control the pace. Cool Lucky Lady from post two has excellent tactical speed and should be forwardly placed without needing the lead. Pasila from the outside post nine will have to use some speed to get position before the first turn. The race likely sets up for a horse that can press the pace and get the jump on the closers on the far turn.
Key Contenders
Cool Lucky Lady is the horse to beat. Trained by W. Bret Calhoun and ridden by Timothy Thornton, this three-year-old filly has the perfect blend of speed and stamina for the one-mile distance. Drawing post two allows Thornton to secure a prime spot on the rail or just off the lead saving ground. Calhoun’s runners are deadly in these conditioned allowance spots.
Pasila represents the Brett Brinkman barn with Thomas Pompell up. Despite the wide draw, she has class and consistency. Brinkman is excellent with route horses at Delta, and if she can tuck in before the first turn, she will be a major factor in the stretch. Her form suggests she handles the two turns well.
Secondary Choices
Gimme It All could be the speed of the speed. Juan Vargas rides for J. Luis Garcia. If she is allowed to set slow fractions on the front end, she could steal the race. However, pressure from Cool Lucky Lady makes that task difficult.
Radiant Rebel from post four brings a mid-pack closing style that could be effective if the leaders tire. Kevin Roman rides for Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez. She often hits the board but struggles to find the winner’s circle.
Longshots
Ann’s Storm from the rail is a veteran mare who saves ground and could plod into the superfecta at a big price. Crawfish Burl steps up in class but has some upside as a three-year-old.
Betting Strategy
Cool Lucky Lady looks like one of the stronger plays on the card given the connections and post position. A Win bet is recommended. Play a straight Exacta: Cool Lucky Lady over Pasila. Protect with a saver Exacta: Cool Lucky Lady over Gimme It All.
Selections
Win: Cool Lucky Lady
Place: Pasila
Show: Gimme It All
Race 8 – Rosewater Stakes
Post Time
3:16 PM
Pace Analysis
The feature race of the day, the $100,000 Rosewater Stakes at 7.5 furlongs, features a talented field of Louisiana-breds. La Nina Dorada is a confirmed front-runner who will likely gun for the lead from post four. Lola and Rose from the rail also has speed, which could create a contested pace into the first turn. Mo for Us and Miss Dealority will likely stalk the pace from mid-pack. The 7.5-furlong distance starts near the end of the backstretch, allowing a fair run to the turn, but speed still holds an advantage.
Key Contenders
Mo for Us looks poised to strike for the powerful Steven Asmussen stable. With Paco Lopez in the irons, this four-year-old filly sits a perfect stalking trip. She has been facing tough company and this spot fits her class level perfectly. If the speed horses tire, she will get the first run.
La Nina Dorada is the main speed threat. Trained by Brett Brinkman and ridden by Vicente Del-Cid, she is dangerous if left alone on the lead. Her ability to carry speed around two turns at Delta Downs is proven, and Del-Cid is an aggressive gate rider who will ensure she is placed forwardly.
Secondary Choices
Blessed Assurance from post two is a consistent mare for trainer Juan Larrosa. She doesn’t win often but is constantly in the money. Carlos Perez knows her well, and she will be grinding away late to pick up a share.
Lola and Rose draws the rail and is the “x-factor.” If she sends hard, she could compromise La Nina Dorada’s chances. If she rates, she could be trapped inside. Ricky Courville is a savvy trainer, so expect a strategic ride from Kevin Roman.
Longshots
Nodah has back class but needs to regain her best form. Island Gold is another Larrosa entrant who adds depth to the field but may be slightly outclassed by the top two.
Betting Strategy
This race sets up as a duel between the speed of La Nina Dorada and the class of Mo for Us. The best bet is to key Mo for Us in the Exacta over La Nina Dorada and Blessed Assurance. A Win bet on Mo for Us is solid value if she stays above 2-1.
Selections
Win: Mo for Us
Place: La Nina Dorada
Show: Blessed Assurance
Race 9 – Claiming
Post Time
3:44 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a 6.5-furlong sprint with a full field of twelve, ensuring a chaotic start and a fast pace. Prince Lancelot draws the far outside but has speed. Scallywag and Summertime Peppers also have early foot. The 6.5-furlong distance allows for closers to have a better chance than at 5 furlongs, as the run down the backstretch is longer. This race is ripe for a closer to pick up the pieces.
Key Contenders
Iberian Runner from post six is an intriguing play. Kelvin Arana rides for Cesar Govea. This gelding has back class and handles the distance well. In a race with plenty of speed signed on, his mid-pack running style should keep him out of trouble and allow him to make one run.
Prince Lancelot (GB) drops in class for Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez. David Cohen takes the mount. The wide draw is tough, but this horse has faced much better company. If he can clear the field or sit wide in the clear, his class should prevail in the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Scallywag enters for Brett Brinkman with Junior Inirio up. He has been consistent at this level and has good tactical speed. He needs to avoid a wide trip from post ten.
Strong Eagle from post five is a hard-knocking veteran for Alison Escobar. He usually gives an honest effort and fits well with this group.
Longshots
Gotta Deal from post two could surprise at a big price if he can save ground on the rail. Sarah’s Vision is a deep closer who needs a pace meltdown to hit the board.
Betting Strategy
Field size creates value here. Iberian Runner offers great value as a mid-pack horse. Prince Lancelot is the class drop play. Box Iberian Runner, Prince Lancelot, and Scallywag in the Exacta.
Selections
Win: Iberian Runner
Place: Prince Lancelot
Show: Scallywag
Jockey Notes and Insights
Vicente Del-Cid continues to be the dominant force at Delta Downs. His aggressive style out of the gate is perfectly suited for this bullring track. He is a “must-use” rider on any horse with early speed, particularly in sprints (Races 1, 2, 4, 8).
Timothy Thornton is riding in excellent form and excels at saving ground on the turns. His partnership with trainer Allen Landry and Bret Calhoun is potent. Look for him to overperform on horses drawn in posts 1-4.
Paco Lopez brings world-class talent to Vinton. His presence on Steve Asmussen’s horses (Race 1, Race 8) signals maximum intent. Lopez is known for his aggressive riding and ability to keep horses involved in the race; he rarely gives up on a mount.
Thomas Pompell provides steady veteran leadership. He often flies under the radar but rides the track very well, particularly for Brett Brinkman. He is a great jockey to use on mid-priced contenders and longshots (Race 2, Race 7).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brett Brinkman is having a strong meet and excels with Louisiana-breds. His horses are typically well-spotted and fit. Pay close attention to his entrants in the stakes race (Race 8) and maiden races (Race 3).
Steven Asmussen may not have the volume of starters as some locals, but his win percentage is high. When he ships a horse to Delta and puts a top rider like Paco Lopez up, it is a major “win-now” signal.
Eduardo Ramirez has a high strike rate with claiming sprinters. His horses often show improved speed off the claim or layoff. Custom Candy in Race 6 is a prime example of his spotting ability.
Allen Landry is a consistent force in the claiming and allowance ranks. His horses are reliable and often hit the board even when not winning. He is a great trainer to key in the Place and Show spots for vertical wagers.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day:
Race 7: Cool Lucky Lady. She checks all the boxes: top connections (Calhoun/Thornton), perfect post position (2), and the right running style for the distance. She should sit a perfect trip and prove best in the lane.
Best Value Play:
Race 9: Iberian Runner. In a wide-open race with a full field and plenty of speed, this gelding should offer enticing odds (likely 6-1 or higher). His running style fits the race shape, and he could blow up the tote board in the finale.
Daily Double Play (Races 1 & 2):
Start the day with a focused Double.
Race 1: Blackjack Mary (2)
Race 2: Our Keepsake (4) / Moon Mist (1)
Cost for $2 Double: $4.00
Pick 3 Strategy (Races 7-9):
Race 7: 2, 9
Race 8: 5, 4
Race 9: 6, 12, 10
A small ticket covering the late sequence with the most likely winners.
