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Thursday’s eight-race Delta Downs card leans heavily toward dirt sprints with one one-mile route and one 7.5 furlong event. The program is dominated by fillies and mares, including three maiden races for Louisiana-breds, which should produce some chaotic betting opportunities.

The feature from a quality and interest standpoint is Race 3, a $44,000 Louisiana-bred maiden special weight at 7.5 furlongs for three-year-old fillies, which includes Jet Ruckus, a filly noted in national Oaks watch coverage, and Simply Grace, who owns strong local figures. The nightcap, Race 8, is a $10,000 Louisiana-bred maiden claimer at 6.5 furlongs with multiple fillies exiting key local maiden heats.

Overall, the card sets up as a classic Delta Downs winter evening: a speed-favoring main track, short stretch, and several races where inside-drawn pace types should control affairs, especially at five furlongs and 6.5 furlongs.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts for the Vinton, Louisiana area on Thursday, January 22, 2026, call for mild winter conditions with afternoon and early evening temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, light winds, and only a modest chance of showers. Humidity is high but modeled precipitation probabilities around the card’s post times are low, with only isolated light showers indicated in some projections.

Delta Downs’ dirt surface is a six-furlong oval composed of a sand-clay-limestone mix with very efficient drainage and a history of remaining fast under light or moderate moisture. With no significant rain in the immediate forecast and no posted off-track conditions from national scratch reports specific to Delta for today, the main track is expected to be listed as fast or, at worst, a drying-out surface playing very similarly to fast.​

Handicappers should therefore assume a typical Delta Downs winter profile: firm footing, consistent throughout the night, and no systematic need to favor mud-loving pedigrees.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Delta Downs is one of the more pronounced speed-favoring dirt surfaces in North America. The compact six-furlong layout, tight turns, and very short 660-foot stretch create a strong structural edge for horses with tactical speed and forward placement, particularly in sprints.​

Historical data from recent winter meets show:

• At five furlongs, just over 50% of winners have gone wire to wire in key sample periods; extending to the full winter meet still shows about 45% of five-furlong winners on the front end.​
• At six and 6.5 furlongs, front-running success moderates but remains strong, with roughly 40% of winners leading at every call in the 2019 winter sample.​
• At distances of one mile and beyond, the wire-to-wire rate drops sharply to the low 20s percentage range, as stamina and trip play a larger role.​

Post position data from the same study indicate:

• Inside posts one through three are modestly but consistently more profitable than outside draws across most distances.​
• Post six often performs better than its neighbors, while posts four, five, and seven have historically produced slightly fewer winners, though the differences are not extreme given average field sizes around nine runners.​

Practical implications for today’s card:

• Races 1, 6, and 7 at five furlongs: strong premium on early speed, especially from posts one through three, and still good from mid-gates if they break sharply.
• Races 2, 5, and 8 at 6.5 furlongs: early speed and pressing styles remain a notable advantage, but there is a bit more room for a stalking trip.
• Race 3 at 7.5 furlongs and Race 4 at one mile: the speed bias moderates; strong pace or cheap speed can bring mid-pack stalkers and closers squarely into play.

Given expected fast conditions, today’s races should reflect these established patterns rather than being distorted by weather-induced bias changes.

Race 1 – Delta Downs – Maiden Special Weight – 5 Furlongs Dirt

For maiden fillies and mares four and up, $36,000 purse.

Post Time

Approximately 4:45 PM CST.

Pace Analysis

This is a pure five-furlong dash on a track where more than half of winners at the distance can wire the field in a typical winter window. Several entrants show early or tactical speed based on running-style assessments and recent race histories compiled by handicapping models.​

Chasing Glory and Sayyoulovemebaby both project as pace-pressing types with the ability to be in the first flight. Brisa Veloz brings strong stalking speed from Gulfstream turf and dirt sprints, while Armaleese has proven mid-pack closing ability but cannot concede too much ground over this short stretch. Gab’s Humor also has a fast-stalker profile but has not been finishing her races effectively at this distance in recent local tries.

Expect Chasing Glory to be aggressively ridden from post 2 to secure inside position, with Sayyoulovemebaby and Brisa Veloz pressing from outside and Armaleese sitting just behind the top trio. A genuine, honest pace is likely but not a meltdown; traditional Delta profile favors the strongest of these pace-stalk types rather than deep closers.

Key Contenders

Chasing Glory (2) has the strongest consensus backing among handicappers. Algorithmic ratings and expert grids place her clearly on top or co-top, with short morning-line odds around 2-1 and a projected fast stalking style. She has multiple minor placings against better circuits, and the Del-Cid / Larrosa combination is one of the most productive at Delta in recent seasons, with both rider and trainer ranking near the top of local win-rate tables. With an inside draw, natural speed, and hot connections, she is the most straightforward win candidate.

Brisa Veloz (8) brings strong class and figure lines from Gulfstream Park, including several sharp 5–5.5 furlong efforts on turf and dirt where she consistently hit the board. She owns the “fastest stalker” designation in pace models and has run well against significantly deeper fields than these Louisiana-based mares. The main concerns are the outermost post and the need to adapt fully to the local surface, but her ability to sit just off the speed and finish gives her a powerful profile even against the track’s inside-speed bias.​

Sayyoulovemebaby (5) is a lightly raced four-year-old with two seconds and two thirds from three or four starts, consistently finishing in the money at five and 6.5 furlongs. She is another pace-pressing type and has already shown she can handle Delta’s main track. Handicappers consistently rank her among the top three, though slightly behind Chasing Glory and Brisa Veloz in overall projection.

Armaleese (6) is more of a mid-pack closer with a deep local form cycle that includes multiple seconds and thirds in sprints and extended sprints. She has yet to win in 12 starts but has enough late foot to pick up pieces if the top three hook up early. Her profile suits a vertical exotic role more than a win position given Delta’s 5-furlong dynamics.​

Secondary Choices

Opaque (1) has had several modest finishes at various tracks without breaking through, but she draws the rail and projects as a mid-pack-closing type. She will need a dream rail-skimming trip and a pace collapse, which is not the typical pattern at this distance. She is a fringe contender underneath in trifectas and superfectas.​

Gab’s Humor (7) and Re Re’s Rocket (3) have not shown the combination of speed and finishing punch needed to overcome both class and bias, based on limited but disappointing prior dirt sprint form. They would require significant improvement and trip luck.

Longshots

Marlin Darlin (4) has minor local experience and may improve with another start at the distance, but she has not yet demonstrated the early-foot/finish combination required to upset this group. She is a stretch inclusion only in deeper superfecta constructions.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

From a wagering perspective, this is a classic Delta Downs five-furlong chalky opener built around the inside-speed dynamic. The strongest structural edge lies with Chasing Glory’s inside draw and high-percentage connections, but her short price compresses win value. Brisa Veloz offers a modest overlay potential if she drifts above her morning line, given her back class and stalking speed.

Vertical players can key Chasing Glory and Brisa Veloz on top in exactas and trifectas, with Sayyoulovemebaby and Armaleese filling out second and third slots. Deep superfecta tickets can use Opaque and perhaps Marlin Darlin as minor fourth-slot fillers at big prices.

Horizontally, Chasing Glory is a logical single in early Daily Doubles and the opening leg of any early multi-race wagers, though value-conscious players can include Brisa Veloz as a second “A” to guard against a surface/pace scenario that slightly blunts inside speed.

Selections

Win: Chasing Glory (2)
Place: Brisa Veloz (8)
Show: Sayyoulovemebaby (5)

Race 2 – Delta Downs – Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs Dirt

Claiming $5,000 (Louisiana-bred $7,500), fillies and mares four and up, NW since dates; $16,500 purse.​

Post Time

Approximately 5:13 PM CST.​

Pace Analysis

At 6.5 furlongs, Delta Downs still rewards forward placement but gives a bit more breathing room for mid-pack stalkers than the pure 5-furlong dashes. Several older mares in this group have been plying their trade at this configuration, and the pace scenario appears moderate rather than suicidal.​

Lady Hipster, New Destiny, and Crusin Like a Cat all have histories of being forward or pressing types at this level, while Dinahs Girl may sit just behind them. The older closing mares such as Miss Darlene and Sis Boom Bob typically depend on a contested pace that may or may not materialize at this tag.

Expect New Destiny to use the rail to attend the pace, Lady Hipster to apply pressure from mid-gate, and Crusin Like a Cat to sit in the clear outside the leaders. Without a pure runoff speed horse, the race may favor whichever of these three gets the cleanest trip into the far turn.

Key Contenders

Lady Hipster (5) is the primary algorithmic choice, ranked on top by several handicapping models and expected to be favored around 2-1 on the morning line. She has been competing at higher levels, with prior races in allowance company before this drop. That class relief is attractive at this claiming price, but the scratch watch notes a recent veterinarian scratch from an allowance race earlier this month, indicating she was withdrawn for a physical reason in that spot. That raises some mild durability questions but also suggests she is spotted here to re-establish form against softer company. If she runs back to her best efforts, she is strictly the one to beat.

New Destiny (1) draws the rail, and her connections are notable: she is trained by Ramirez-Rodriguez, one of the highest-percentage trainers at Delta, and ridden by Del-Cid, the meet’s leading jockey by win percentage. Multiple handicappers rate her as the second choice in expected order of finish, and her ability to secure an inside stalking or pressing trip is a key asset at this distance. If Lady Hipster fails to fire off the class drop, New Destiny is the most likely beneficiary.

Crusin Like a Cat (8) has earned respect from handicappers as well, including being tabbed as the top pick by at least one expert selection grid. She has tactical speed, fits at the level, and enjoys the services of a capable local pilot. While the outside post is not ideal, 6.5-furlong sprints give enough run into the first turn to mitigate some of the ground-loss risk, especially if she breaks well and can sit just off Lady Hipster and New Destiny.

Dinahs Girl (3) appears on most secondary lines as a third- or fourth-choice type. She has enough positional speed to track the main trio and the stamina to grind on in the lane.

Secondary Choices

Miss Darlene (6) is an eight-year-old mare with plenty of back class and experience, but she has not been finishing strongly of late and appears to be approaching the twilight of her better form cycle. Handicappers place her mid-pack in their projected order of finish. From a pace standpoint, she will likely be running into a short stretch without the benefit of a fast collapse, limiting her win probability but keeping her in the mix for a minor share if the others falter.​

Layla’s Song (2), My Golden Bling (4), and Sis Boom Bob (7) fill out the field and project primarily as long-shot closers or mid-pack types without a distinct pace or class edge. They can be used sparingly underneath in deep trifecta or superfecta plays, but they are difficult to endorse on top given more appealing profiles among the main quartet.

Longshots

Sis Boom Bob (7) has some back winning form at the track but recent efforts and projected running style suggest she will need a significant form reversal along with perfect pace and trip to threaten the top three. She is a deep exotics-only type.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race revolves around interpreting Lady Hipster’s drop from allowance company with a recent veterinary scratch on her record. For conservative multi-race players, she must be treated as an “A” horse in doubles and Pick 3s, but there is a reasonable case for using New Destiny and Crusin Like a Cat on equal footing, especially if the favorite is heavily overbet.

Win wagers can lean toward New Destiny or Crusin Like a Cat if Lady Hipster’s price drops below her fair value threshold, particularly given the strength of the Del-Cid / Ramirez-Rodriguez combination for the former and the outside tactical-flow edge for the latter. Exacta structures may key Lady Hipster with New Destiny and Crusin Like a Cat, while trifectas can add Dinahs Girl and Miss Darlene to third position.

Selections

Win: Lady Hipster (5)
Place: New Destiny (1)
Show: Crusin Like a Cat (8)

Race 3 – Delta Downs – Louisiana-Bred Maiden Special Weight – 7.5 Furlongs Dirt

Accredited Louisiana-bred three-year-old fillies, $44,000 purse.

Post Time

Approximately 5:41 PM CST.

Pace Analysis

The 7.5-furlong distance on the Delta main track runs out of the chute and into the first turn, with a somewhat more forgiving configuration than the shortest sprints but still a relatively short stretch by national standards. Historically, wire-to-wire rates around seven furlongs have been roughly 40%, dipping slightly as distance lengthens, meaning tactical speed remains important but closers have a more realistic chance than at five furlongs.​

This field is comprised mainly of lightly raced fillies with route or elongated sprint form. Simply Grace, Jet Ruckus, Mo Pumpkin, and Prytania all show either tactical speed or stalk-and-pounce profiles in prior starts, while Shadow Dancer and Artic Sailor have tended to settle mid-pack or worse. There is no obvious pure runoff front runner; instead, a contested but not suicidal pace among two or three tactical types appears likely.​

Expect Jet Ruckus and Simply Grace to vie for prominent positions early, with Prytania stalking just behind and Mo Pumpkin mid-pack. If the early fractions are moderate, this race could become a test of stamina and class among the top four.

Key Contenders

Simply Grace (6) is the top-rated filly in most algorithmic handicapping models, carrying the highest win projection (about 23%) and the “fastest stalker” designation. She has finished second in both prior starts, including a strong 6.5-furlong effort at Delta that points to both quality and local suitability. She should get a perfect trip sitting just off whichever filly commits to the lead, and her figures appear to give her a slight edge on paper.

Jet Ruckus (4) is a highly interesting filly whose prior one-mile efforts at Fair Grounds and Delta both resulted in runner-up finishes. She has already proven she can handle two turns and sustain a long run, and her presence in national industry coverage suggests she is considered a filly of some potential by broader connections. Cutting back slightly to 7.5 furlongs should keep her well within her stamina comfort zone while allowing her tactical speed to keep her in the first flight. Her combination of route experience and quality makes her a legitimate co-favorite and an appealing alternative to the likely shorter price on Simply Grace.

Prytania (2) has been second in both of her starts, including at 7.5 furlongs at Delta, where she finished well behind a clear winner but ahead of the remainder. She carries a “fast closer” label, suggesting she will be sitting in mid-pack or slightly further back before making a sustained move. If Jet Ruckus and Simply Grace engage early and Mo Pumpkin applies additional pressure, Prytania’s late kick could become a major factor.​

Secondary Choices

Mo Pumpkin (3) has been a consistent mid-pack closer with one second and one third from five starts, including a solid second at 6.5 furlongs here. She tends to run evenly, and although her raw talent may be slightly below the top three, she is more than capable of passing tired horses late and landing in the trifecta.​

Shadow Dancer (1) has shown some tactical speed in shorter local sprints but did not finish strongly in those efforts. Stretching out again could help if she relaxes early, but she has yet to prove she can carry her speed effectively beyond 6.5 furlongs.​

Artic Sailor (8) has multiple starts without significant impact and appears more of a grinding type lacking a decisive turn of foot. She can get a share with a favorable trip but requires others to underperform.​

Mi Ardilla (5) and Bayou’s Barbie (7) are longer-priced fillies with limited or no meaningful data, making them unknowns with more to prove against a relatively solid top tier.

Longshots

Bayou’s Barbie (7) and Mi Ardilla (5) enter as lightly exposed or debuting types without demonstrated local ability, making them speculative longshots. They can be used in deeper exotics but do not project as core win contenders absent strong tote-board or warm-up clues.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is one of the card’s more competitive and potentially formful races. From a pure probability standpoint, Simply Grace and Jet Ruckus deserve co-favorite status and can be treated as dual “A” horses in multi-race tickets. Price-sensitive players may lean more heavily toward Jet Ruckus if she offers more attractive odds than Simply Grace, given her proven route stamina and broader industry buzz.

Vertical bettors can construct exactas boxing Simply Grace, Jet Ruckus, and Prytania, with Mo Pumpkin and perhaps Artic Sailor filling third and fourth spots in trifectas and superfectas. Because maiden routes can be chaotic, it is also prudent to consider at least small coverage using all four main contenders in the first two positions.

Selections

Win: Jet Ruckus (4)
Place: Simply Grace (6)
Show: Prytania (2)

Race 4 – Delta Downs – Claiming NW2L – 1 Mile Dirt

Four-year-old and up fillies and mares that have never won two races, $5,000 claiming, $14,500 purse.​

Post Time

Approximately 6:09 PM CST.​

Pace Analysis

At one mile on the Delta main track, the pronounced sprint speed bias moderates significantly. Historical data suggest only about 23% of mile-and-longer races are won wire to wire, with more balanced outcomes between frontrunners, stalkers, and mid-pack closers. However, fields at this level often include suspicious stamina and cheap speed, so pace scenario remains critical.​

In this group, there is no obvious high-class speed horse. Slim Causeway and Love in the Dark are candidates to attend the pace from inside, with Double Cute possibly adding pressure from mid-gate. Papiringa and Miss Emily have tended to stalk or sit just off the pace, and they appear more likely to capitalize late rather than set strong fractions themselves.​

Expect a moderate early tempo, with a compact group turning for home and stamina plus trip determining the final outcome more than raw speed.

Key Contenders

Miss Emily (8) is the clear top choice across multiple handicapping models, ranked first on expected order of finish and installed around 2-1 on the morning line. She has been facing slightly tougher groups and appears to have both the tactical speed and stamina to handle the mile. From the outside post, she should be able to drop in just off the early leaders into the first turn and secure a stalking position, which is often ideal at this trip when speed is not overwhelmingly dominant.​

Papiringa (7) profiles as the main danger. She has shown some late-running ability and appears to be moving in the right direction form-wise, with handicappers placing her as the second choice behind Miss Emily. Her draw just to the inside of the favorite gives her a potentially ground-saving tactical edge if she can follow Miss Emily’s move into the far turn.​

Double Cute (5) owns enough positional speed to be near the front and is consistently rated as a strong secondary candidate in models. She fits the NW2L restriction well and should appreciate the class level. If she can ration her speed more effectively at a measured mile pace, she might prove the best value among the top three.​

Secondary Choices

Take Her Away (6) and Acadiana (3) both appear mid-tier in projections, with expected order-of-finish rankings placing them behind the leading trio but ahead of the more exposed longshots. Either could step forward if they get a perfect trip or if the pace ends up softer or faster than expected, but they are more attractive as trifecta and superfecta inclusions than win plays.​

Love in the Dark (2) and Slim Causeway (1) are plausible pace factors without a clear class or figure edge, making them candidates to weaken late but potentially hang on for minor awards.

Special Feature (4) has shown limited finishing ability and projects as the longest shot on most grids.​

Longshots

Special Feature (4) and Slim Causeway (1) both require major improvement in either pace efficiency or finishing strength to threaten the top tier. They are best treated as fringe exotics fillers if spreading deep in vertical wagers.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a logical spot to lean on Miss Emily as a principal single in horizontal sequences. She has the most straightforward profile in the race, and the outside draw suits her stalking style in a field lacking clear high-quality speed.

From a value standpoint, Double Cute may be the overlay if she drifts several points above her morning line. An exacta box of Miss Emily, Papiringa, and Double Cute can capture the obvious outcomes, while trifectas can use the same three on top of Acadiana and Take Her Away for third.

Selections

Win: Miss Emily (8)
Place: Papiringa (7)
Show: Double Cute (5)

Race 5 – Delta Downs – Claiming NW2L – 6.5 Furlongs Dirt

Four-year-olds and up which have never won two races, $10,000 claiming (Louisiana-bred $12,500), $19,500 purse.​

Post Time

Approximately 6:37 PM CST.​

Pace Analysis

This 6.5-furlong NW2L for older males features several horses with prior sprint speed but inconsistent finishing patterns. At 6.5 furlongs, the Delta configuration still emphasizes early speed with about 40% wire-to-wire success historically, but the added ground introduces stamina and trip as larger factors.​

Running Bayou, Boy Charlie, Jamesy’s Empire, and Longneck all have some tactical speed and could be forwardly placed. Metallic Mischief is also capable of attending from mid-pack, while Eligio, Unbridled’s Heir, American Vision, and Dubaian Money may settle further back. This shapes up as a contested but not extreme early pace where the most efficient pace-presser is likely to win.​

Key Contenders

Running Bayou (4) is the top projected finisher by at least one comprehensive handicapping model, with a low expected-value index signaling both win likelihood and reasonable wagering value. He is drawn in a comfortable mid-gate position, has enough early foot to be in the first tier, and seems well-placed in this NW2L claiming spot. If he breaks cleanly and can sit just off the very front, he is positioned to get first run on the deep closers.​

Boy Charlie (3) also garners strong support, ranking second in some expected-finish tables. However, the scratch watch notes a prior trainer scratch from a $5,000 NW2L spot in December, which raises minor questions about physical or placement concerns. When right, he has enough speed and class for this level, but his reliability is lower than Running Bayou’s. That makes him more of a co-favorite in raw talent but slightly less attractive in risk-adjusted terms.​

Jamesy’s Empire (5) is a four-year-old with upside relative to some older, more exposed rivals. Handicappers rank him third in projected order of finish, but his pattern of improving efforts and tactical speed suggests he can either press or stalk, giving his rider flexibility in a race with several unknown pace dynamics. He is a key inclusion in all exotics and a legitimate alternative win candidate if he floats above his morning line.​

Secondary Choices

Longneck (2) is consistently ranked mid-pack but has enough positional speed from an inside draw to secure a good trip if he breaks alertly. He may benefit if the top three engage in an early duel. Metallic Mischief (6) is another mid-tier type with some back figures that fit but not much margin for error; he projects as a solid trifecta/superfecta piece rather than a primary win player.​

Eligio (8), Unbridled’s Heir (9), and American Vision (7) have flashes of form but generally less consistency and lower algorithmic ratings than the top tier. Dubaian Money (10) is rated as the longest shot and appears up against it from a difficult outside post.​

Longshots

Dubaian Money (10) and American Vision (7) need both trip and major improvement to threaten top three positions. They are best used only as deep-cover fourth-place inclusions in wide superfectas.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Running Bayou offers a reasonable balance of win probability and price potential and can be used as a strong “A” horse in multi-race wagers. Jamesy’s Empire is a particularly interesting value play if public attention converges more on Running Bayou and Boy Charlie.

Exacta constructions can key Running Bayou on top of Jamesy’s Empire and Boy Charlie, while trifectas can use those three above Longneck and Metallic Mischief. Roll-ups into the late Pick 3 or Pick 4 should include at least Running Bayou and Jamesy’s Empire, with Boy Charlie as a backup if budget permits.

Selections

Win: Running Bayou (4)
Place: Jamesy’s Empire (5)
Show: Longneck (2)

Race 6 – Delta Downs – Maiden Claiming – 5 Furlongs Dirt

Three-year-old maiden fillies, $5,000 ($7,500 Louisiana-bred) claiming, $10,000 purse.

Post Time

Approximately 7:05 PM CST.​

Pace Analysis

This is another five-furlong sprint on the most speed-favoring configuration at Delta Downs, with historic wire-to-wire rates exceeding 45% across a winter meet sample. The field features several inexperienced fillies with uncertain pace profiles, but handicapping models clearly identify Charge the Deal as the fastest early and most likely leader, with Shining Away and Shake of the Reins also showing some pace potential.

Shouldabeenacowboy from the rail may show some early intent, but her previous running lines suggest she is more likely to track rather than blast. La Jefacita has tactical speed and could be in the first flight, while Ayden Sunshine and E K G’s Union appear more mid-pack types.​

Given the combination of a short field, a short stretch, and one standout pace type, the most likely scenario is Charge the Deal breaking sharply and attempting to control proceedings from the outset.

Key Contenders

Charge the Deal (8) is the clear standout on paper. Multiple independent handicapping models rate her overwhelmingly on top with the highest win/place/show projections in the race and an early pace designation of “fastest leads,” based on prior Delta five-furlong efforts that show her repeatedly on or near the front. She has hit the board in three of four career starts, all in local sprints, and her outside post at this small field size is less of a liability since she has the gate speed to cross and clear.

La Jefacita (4) is the main alternative, with projections placing her as the second most likely winner. She has shown some promise in prior starts and enters for a sharp barn that is very efficient at Delta. Her tactical style should let her sit just off Charge the Deal and attempt to wear her down late if the favorite underperforms.​

Shake of the Reins (3) is another filly with some ability, ranking third in expected order of finish and carrying a projected pace style that suggests she too can be in the first wave. She is well placed to capitalize if Charge the Deal breaks poorly or becomes embroiled in unexpected pace pressure.​

Secondary Choices

Shining Away (2) and When I Saw You (5) both appear in the scratch watch with prior veterinarian scratches at higher claiming levels and other tracks, indicating some historical physical or condition concerns. At the same time, their presence here at a lower tag and their mid-range projections suggest that they can be used underneath in exotics but may be less reliable as win candidates.​

Ayden Sunshine (6), E K G’s Union (7), and Shouldabeenacowboy (1) appear slower on paper and in algorithmic projections, making them fringe players who would need multiple top choices to misfire.

Longshots

Shouldabeenacowboy (1) from the rail and E K G’s Union (7) are primarily longshot candidates with limited demonstrated ability. They may get minor shares in a meltdown, but the projected pace scenario does not strongly support that outcome.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Charge the Deal is a logical and likely heavy favorite and profiles as one of the card’s most straightforward singles in multi-race wagers. Her local experience, superior early speed, and strong projection scores justify anchor status in late Pick 3s and doubles.

For vertical bettors, the primary angles involve deciding which filly to key underneath. A strategy of using Charge the Deal on top of La Jefacita and Shake of the Reins in exactas, with those two plus Shining Away and When I Saw You filling out third and fourth in trifectas and superfectas, is sensible. Because this race could produce a chalky outcome, conservative bet sizing or focus on horizontals may be more profitable than large vertical constructions.

Selections

Win: Charge the Deal (8)
Place: Shake of the Reins (3)
Show: La Jefacita (4)

Race 7 – Delta Downs – Claiming NW4L – 5 Furlongs Dirt

Four-year-olds and up which have never won four races, $5,000 claiming, $15,000 purse.

Post Time

Approximately 7:33 PM CST.​

Pace Analysis

This is another five-furlong sprint where speed and position are paramount. The field is loaded with older geldings who have built their careers on sprint speed, and the pace figures suggest multiple potential leaders.

Vodka Martini, Leaving Shadows, Mud On My Boots, Begforforgiveness, and Forsaken all carry “fast leads” or pace-forward designations in handicapping models. Sunset War is a fast closer, while One Last Thing tends to stalk or sit mid-pack. Honor That Dude looks more like a late-running type.

The presence of several speed horses suggests a strong early tempo, but this being Delta Downs, the horse that can carve out that pace while handling the turns and conserving enough to stay on is still favored statistically over deep closers.

Key Contenders

Vodka Martini (5) is the consensus top choice. He has three wins from 16 starts and a high in-the-money rate, and handicapping models assign him the strongest combination of win probability and early pace, labeling him as “fastest leads” in this group. Drawn in mid-gate with a strong local jockey, he has the tactical option to either clear or sit just off another speed horse before launching in the short stretch. He is the most likely winner, particularly if the track remains strongly speed-favoring by this race.

Leaving Shadows (1) has a superb win percentage relative to starts, with three wins and multiple placings from only seven lifetime starts, and is rated highly by models in both pace and finishing projections. He draws the rail, which is an advantage at this distance when paired with a horse that can break quickly and hold position. If he leaves sharply, he will either be on the lead or pocketed behind the leader, both favorable spots at Delta.​

Forsaken (9) is a class-exposed but dangerous late-early type with three wins and a remarkable 19 in-the-money finishes from 36 starts. He has been competitive at similar and slightly higher levels and is adept at racing just off the speed. From the outside post, he may get a clean, stalking trip avoiding the worst of the early scramble, which can position him perfectly to pounce if the inside speed horses duel each other into the lane.​

Secondary Choices

Begforforgiveness (8) is another high-percentage in-the-money horse with a pace-forward profile, showing three wins and seven placings from 13 starts. He is consistently near the top in expected order-of-finish models but just a tick below the main trio, making him a key trifecta and superfecta inclusion and a marginal win consideration if his price drifts.​

Mud On My Boots (3) is an honest veteran with three wins and multiple placings from 27 starts. He is capable of a big performance when he catches the right trip, but his recent form and projections place him slightly below the top four.​

Half Full (4), Sunset War (2), One Last Thing (7), and Honor That Dude (6) round out the field as longer-priced contenders relying on specific pace collapses or trip scenarios.

Longshots

Sunset War (2) and Honor That Dude (6) are rated near the bottom by most models and will require a perfect storm of pace meltdown, trip, and form reversal to land on top. They are deep exotics candidates only.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race presents a classic “speed cluster” problem in a sprint bias environment. The key is to identify which speed or pace-adjacent horses are most likely to survive the early pressure. Vodka Martini, Leaving Shadows, and Forsaken stand out as the most efficient speed or pressers, and all three should be used heavily in horizontal wagers, with Vodka Martini and Leaving Shadows as “A” types and Forsaken as a strong “B”/value overlay.

Exacta and trifecta strategies can key Vodka Martini on top, with boxes among Vodka Martini, Leaving Shadows, Forsaken, and Begforforgiveness. Because of the competitive nature of the field and reliance on subtle pace/trip differences, there is also some justification for three- or four-horse exacta boxes if the odds are generous enough.

Selections

Win: Vodka Martini (5)
Place: Leaving Shadows (1)
Show: Forsaken (9)

Race 8 – Delta Downs – Louisiana-Bred Maiden Claiming – 6.5 Furlongs Dirt

Accredited Louisiana-bred three-year-old maiden fillies, $10,000 claiming, $19,000 purse.

Post Time

Approximately 8:01 PM CST.​

Pace Analysis

The closing race at 6.5 furlongs features a mix of lightly raced fillies with different pace profiles. Historical performance at this distance shows that early speed remains a strong asset at Delta Downs, with about 40% of winners going wire to wire in key seasonal windows.​

In this group, Inawinner and Goodmorning Gracie stand out as pace-forward types. Inawinner is labeled as “fastest leader” by some models, while Goodmorning Gracie is tagged “fast leads,” both off productive local 6.5-furlong efforts. Married for Money and Louisiana Woman project more as stalking or mid-pack types, with Married for Money often grinding into late position without finishing the job. Oh Baby shows a deeper-closing profile, and Stormy Lou has been a mid-pack closer in her prior attempts.​

Expect Inawinner to vie for the lead from post 6, with Goodmorning Gracie and possibly Married for Money tracking. If the fractions are moderate, the winner is likely to come from those three. A sharper-than-expected pace would bring Stormy Lou and Oh Baby into the conversation.

Key Contenders

Inawinner (6) is the narrow but decisive favorite on most analytic projections, rated highest in win probability and assigned a strong early speed profile. She has earned minor awards at this level in prior 6.5-furlong starts at Delta, including a close third and a solid on-pace effort where she fought on gamely. As a three-start filly with upside and a natural front-running style, she fits the Delta profile nearly perfectly.

Goodmorning Gracie (8) has run well in multiple local starts, including a second and a third at this same distance in reasonably strong maiden company. She, too, has the ability to make or attend the pace, and her figures suggest she is closing the gap on Inawinner. Many handicappers rate her as the second choice, very close in expected finish to Stormy Lou.

Stormy Lou (9) is a mid-pack closer with three outings under her belt. While she has not yet finished in the money, her late-running style has been hampered by the track configuration and pace structures in prior events. Algorithmic projections give her a solid win/place/show probability, and she will be the primary beneficiary if Inawinner and Goodmorning Gracie get into a prolonged stretch fight off ambitious fractions.​

Secondary Choices

Married for Money (5) has accumulated a sizable number of starts without breaking through, often finding ways to flatten late after traveling well into the lane. She fits well underneath but may lack the finish needed for the top slot unless she catches a perfect setup.​

Oh Baby (2) is a lightly raced closer with at least one decent late-running line and is assigned respectable projections by some models. She benefits from a strong local jockey-trainer combo and could outrun her odds if the pace proves more contested than expected.​

Boujie Bear (3), Louisiana Woman (4), Coach’s Memory (1), and Call Fern (7) appear in the lower half of projections and will likely need significant improvement to crack the exacta, though any of them could hit the superfecta with a step forward.

Longshots

Coach’s Memory (1) and Call Fern (7) are particularly speculative plays given their modest prior efforts and lower analytical rankings. They can be used sparingly as fourth-position inclusions.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

From a structural standpoint, Inawinner is a logical key in the nightcap, with Goodmorning Gracie and Stormy Lou forming the primary opposition. This race offers a good opportunity for a fairly tight trifecta, keying all three of those fillies in the top two positions, with Married for Money, Oh Baby, and Boujie Bear rotating through third and fourth.

In late horizontals, Inawinner can be a strong “A” with Goodmorning Gracie as a co-anchor. Value-oriented players should make sure Stormy Lou is covered at least as a “B” or backup, since her mid-pack style is the clearest alternative scenario to the projected pace-dominated outcome.

Selections

Win: Inawinner (6)
Place: Goodmorning Gracie (8)
Show: Stormy Lou (9)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Delta Downs this winter has been dominated by a core group of high-percentage riders who appear repeatedly on today’s card. A long-term track profile using several seasons of data shows:

• Vicente Del-Cid with win rates around or exceeding 30% at Delta and very high place/show hit rates, making him the premier local rider by strike rate.
• Thomas Pompell, Edward Santiago, Joel Dominguez, and Timothy Thornton all posting win percentages in the 20–30% range with excellent in-the-money rates.​

On today’s card:

• Del-Cid has key mounts on Chasing Glory in Race 1 and New Destiny in Race 2, both for trainers with equally strong local records. His presence significantly boosts the confidence level in these horses and helps justify their status as primary win contenders.
• Thornton’s mounts include Jet Ruckus in Race 3 and Stormy Lou in Race 8, both of which are central figures in those races. Thornton’s high win and in-the-money rates at Delta reinforce their appeal, especially for multi-race wagers.
• Jansen Melancon, another strong local rider with double-digit win and high in-the-money percentages, appears on Brisa Veloz in Race 1, Dinahs Girl in Race 2, and Inawinner in Race 8, all of which are live contenders by form and model projections.
• Joel Dominguez and Kevin Roman, both effective at capitalizing on Delta’s tight oval, are involved in several important mounts such as Prytania in Race 3, Running Bayou in Race 5, and Vodka Martini in Race 7.

The key insight is that today’s key races often line up with the track’s best jockeys on horses already identified as algorithmic or expert-contender types. Ignoring the jockey angle at Delta can be costly; in borderline decisions between otherwise similar horses, siding with Del-Cid, Thornton, Melancon, or Dominguez has been a profitable strategy historically.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Analytics-driven standings highlight several trainers with exceptional win and in-the-money percentages at Delta Downs in recent meets:

• Lee Thomas, Juan A. Larrosa, Jonathan Wong, Samuel Breaux, and Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez all posting win rates in the mid-30s to low-70s range in selected samples, with strong in-the-money figures.​
• Others such as Eduardo Ramirez, Brett Brinkman, and Juan Munoz Cano also show consistently elevated success rates.​

On today’s card:

• Juan A. Larrosa trains Chasing Glory in Race 1, pairing with Del-Cid in one of the meet’s highest-performing trainer-jockey combinations.
• Abel Ramirez-Rodriguez sends out New Destiny in Race 2, another race where he teams with Del-Cid on a logical contender.
• Brett Brinkman trains Opaque in Race 1 and Jamesy’s Empire in Race 5. While Opaque is a longshot, Jamesy’s Empire is a strong secondary contender in a wide-open NW2L field, and Brinkman’s above-average win percentage makes him a dangerous player in that spot.
• Samuel Breaux has Acadiana in Race 4 and may also appear in other races; his high local strike rate, especially with claims and mid-level claimers, warrants attention even when his horses are not obvious on paper.
• Jason Faul, Allen Landry, and Ronnie Ward also show effective use of Delta’s conditions with horses like Brisa Veloz (Race 1), Charge the Deal and Inawinner (Races 6 and 8), and Married for Money (Race 8).

Trainer patterns today reinforce many of the conclusions reached from raw form analysis. When strong trainer stats align with favorable pace scenarios and positive jockey assignments—as with Chasing Glory, Jet Ruckus, Charge the Deal, Vodka Martini, and Inawinner—confidence in those selections increases materially.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

From a card-level perspective, several strategic themes stand out:

First, the track’s speed and inside bias at five and 6.5 furlongs should frame all betting decisions. In Races 1, 6, and 7 at five furlongs, and Races 2, 5, and 8 at 6.5 furlongs, prioritizing horses with early speed and favorable posts remains the most robust angle. Chasing Glory (Race 1), Charge the Deal (Race 6), Vodka Martini (Race 7), and Inawinner (Race 8) all epitomize this profile.

Second, there are a few races where the public may compress odds around obvious favorites, presenting potential value opportunities on near-co-equals:

• Race 3: Simply Grace is likely to attract strong support, but Jet Ruckus has comparable or slightly better long-route credentials and national attention at a likely better price. Focusing win and exacta dollars on Jet Ruckus, while still respecting Simply Grace in multi-race coverage, can generate added value.
• Race 5: Running Bayou figures to be favored or co-favored, but Jamesy’s Empire offers upside as a less-exposed four-year-old in a field of hard-knocking but limited NW2L types. Any drift above his morning line would make him an appealing win overlay and exacta partner.​
• Race 8: Inawinner will be short, but Goodmorning Gracie and even Stormy Lou offer alternative scenarios at more attractive odds in a race where a contested pace or tactical misstep could shift the outcome. Structuring bets to lean on Inawinner in horizontals but to emphasize Goodmorning Gracie and Stormy Lou in vertical exotics may optimize return.

Third, there are a handful of races where confident singles can compress ticket cost in multi-race wagers:

• Chasing Glory in Race 1 and Charge the Deal in Race 6 both profile as strong singles in Daily Doubles and multi-race exotics, especially for players comfortable embracing favorites where pace, connections, and track profile all align.
• Miss Emily in Race 4 is another likely single for many, though her route context and NW2L volatility suggest including Papiringa as backup is prudent on higher-stakes tickets.

Finally, value-oriented players should be conscious of “scratch watch” horses—Lady Hipster, Boy Charlie, Shining Away, and When I Saw You—who have recent veterinarian or trainer scratches at other venues. They can certainly win at these claiming and maiden levels, but their profiles warrant slightly more skepticism and reduced bet sizes relative to healthier, similarly talented rivals.

Taken together, this card offers a balanced mix of logical chalk, credible alternatives, and a few solid value plays, particularly Jet Ruckus in Race 3, Jamesy’s Empire in Race 5, and Goodmorning Gracie or Stormy Lou in Race 8. Carefully integrating track bias, pace scenarios, and the dominant trainer-jockey combinations into a coherent wagering plan should yield multiple profitable opportunities across the evening.