Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.
Delta Downs presents a nine-race card today, Friday, November 28, 2025, featuring a mix of claiming sprints and maiden events, highlighted by competitive allowance races in the middle of the card. The sequence begins at 4:45 PM CST. The track profile for today suggests a classic Delta setup: a “bullring” configuration where early speed and inside post positions are often decisive, particularly in the shorter 5-furlong dashes.
The feature races include a 5-furlong allowance for Louisiana-breds (Race 6) and a 6 1/2-furlong open allowance (Race 8). The card concludes with a one-mile maiden claiming route under the lights.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast for Vinton, LA:
The weather is expected to be fair and mostly clear with temperatures around 61°F. Winds are light from the North at approximately 5 mph.
Track Condition:
With no significant precipitation in the immediate forecast, the dirt surface is expected to be Fast.
Track Bias:
- 5 Furlongs: The rail and inside posts (1-4) are extremely advantageous. Early speed is the dominant factor; horses that can break sharply and secure the rail or the lead into the first turn have a high win percentage. Closers often struggle unless the pace is suicidal.
- 6 1/2 Furlongs & 7 Furlongs: Speed is still dangerous, but tactical stalkers who can sit just off the pace and make a move on the turn are effective. The “two-turn” nature of longer sprints at Delta requires horses to save ground; wide trips are almost always fatal.
- 1 Mile: Inside posts are preferred to save ground into the first turn. Tactical speed that can clear the field before the first turn is optimal.
Race 1
Post Time: 4:45 PM CST
Conditions: Claiming $20,000, 3-Year-Olds and Up, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Pace Analysis
This 5-furlong dash features several runners with early foot. Leobobanna (1) breaks from the rail and must go to hold position. Heavenly Dream (2) has ample speed and should press the issue immediately. Expect a hot pace as these two vie for the lead, potentially setting it up for a stalker if they duel too hard.
Key Contenders
Heavenly Dream (2)
The likely favorite, this filly enters with strong form and the speed to control the race. Drawing inside is a major plus at this distance. If she clears the rail horse early, she could be gone. Her recent speed figures are superior to this field.
Running Bayou (3)
A consistent runner who fits the “tactical speed” profile perfectly. Breaking from post 3, he can let the inside two speedballs go and sit a perfect trip just behind the leaders. Trainer Isai Gonzalez is high-percentage with this type of runner.
Secondary Choices
Cali Dreamin (4)
A solid closer who will benefit if the pace up front collapses. While 5 furlongs is sharp for a closer at Delta, his late kick makes him a threat for the exotics.
Longshots
Mischievous Rumor (9)
Drawn outside, which is tough, but possesses some back class. If he can cross over without losing too much ground, he could pick up pieces late at a price.
Betting Strategy
The race goes through the #2. A win bet on Heavenly Dream is the logical play. For value, key #2 over #3 and #4 in exactas.
Selections
Win: Heavenly Dream (2)
Place: Running Bayou (3)
Show: Cali Dreamin (4)
Race 2
Post Time: 5:15 PM CST
Conditions: Claiming $5,000 (La-Bred), Fillies and Mares, 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
Pace Analysis
A lower-level claiming event often produces chaotic pace scenarios. Wicked Sailor (11) has speed but a terrible post. Goldzone (10) also draws wide but has tactical foot. Congrats Cadet (6) may be the speed of the speed from the middle of the gate.
Key Contenders
Wicked Sailor (11)
Despite the outside draw, this filly has the best recent form in the field. If she can clear the field early or find a tuck before the first turn, she is the class of the race. She drops in class which should wake her up significantly.
Goldzone (10)
Another runner hampered by the post but possessing the talent to win. Trainer Isai Gonzalez and jockey Kevin Roman are a potent combination. She will likely try to stalk the pace and pounce late.
Secondary Choices
Congrats Cadet (6)
Likely to be sent hard from the gate. In a race void of deep quality, her early speed makes her dangerous if she gets loose on the lead.
Betting Strategy
The outside posts for the top two favorites make this race bettable. Look for Congrats Cadet (6) to possibly steal it if the outside horses get hung wide. However, Wicked Sailor is the most likely winner on talent.
Selections
Win: Wicked Sailor (11)
Place: Goldzone (10)
Show: Congrats Cadet (6)
Race 3
Post Time: 5:43 PM CST
Conditions: Maiden Special Weight (La-Bred), Fillies and Mares, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Pace Analysis
Maiden sprints at 5 furlongs are usually all-out scrambles. My Other Half (4) and Miss Landlock (2) both show flashes of early speed. Totally Mitole (5), by the speedy sire Mitole, is a major pace threat and could flash serious weapon-speed on debut or second asking.
Key Contenders
My Other Half (4)
Ideally drawn to stalk or lead. Trainer Allen Landry is excellent with young horses. She has shown enough in the mornings to suggest she is ready to fire a big effort today.
Miss Landlock (2)
Drawn near the rail, she will be forced to engage early. If she breaks well, she has a huge chance to wire the field given the track bias.
Secondary Choices
Totally Mitole (5)
The wildcard. Sire Mitole throws lightning-fast progeny. With Tim Thornton aboard, expect this one to be sent aggressively. A must-use in multi-race wagers.
Betting Strategy
A competitive maiden race. My Other Half offers a blend of speed and experience. Box the 2, 4, and 5 in trifectas.
Selections
Win: My Other Half (4)
Place: Miss Landlock (2)
Show: Totally Mitole (5)
Race 4
Post Time: 6:11 PM CST
Conditions: Claiming $4,000, Fillies and Mares, 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
Pace Analysis
Floating (10) has speed but the parking lot draw. Destiny’s Grace (3) has inside speed and should be the one to catch. Now Showing (9) will also be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Floating (10)
Despite the post, she is dropping to a rock-bottom level where her class should prevail. If she can avoid a five-wide trip, she wins.
Destiny’s Grace (3)
The inside advantage is significant here. She can save ground while the #10 works hard. If the favorite falters from the wide trip, Destiny’s Grace is the likely beneficiary.
Betting Strategy
Fade the wide-drawn favorite in the win spot if the odds are too low. Destiny’s Grace offers better value from a superior post position.
Selections
Win: Destiny’s Grace (3)
Place: Floating (10)
Show: Now Showing (9)
Race 5
Post Time: 6:39 PM CST
Conditions: Maiden Claiming $30,000, 3-Year-Olds and Up, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Pace Analysis
Bandido Deal (1) draws the rail and adds blinkers (if applicable to equipment changes, check tote). He will likely use the rail to save ground. Dixie Strong (10) has speed but draws 10. Vineaux (8) represents the Calhoun barn and will likely show improvement.
Key Contenders
Bandido Deal (1)
Trainer W. Bret Calhoun and jockey Tim Thornton team up here. The rail draw at 7 furlongs is excellent. He should be able to secure a forward position and save ground on both turns. The one to beat.
Dixie Strong (10)
Trainer Brett Brinkman is having a solid meet. This horse has shown flashes of ability but must overcome the post. Jockey Elvin Gonzalez is aggressive enough to get him into position.
Secondary Choices
No Soy Borracho (7 – Note: Listed in Race 9 in some data, but checking card… wait, No Soy Borracho is Race 9 #7. Correction: Race 5 Secondary is Lewis Memorial or Vineaux)
Vineaux (8)
Another Calhoun entrant. Look for a strong effort; often the “other” Calhoun horse is the value play.
Betting Strategy
Bandido Deal looks like a standout single in vertical wagers. The connection of Calhoun/Thornton is lethal at Delta.
Selections
Win: Bandido Deal (1)
Place: Dixie Strong (10)
Show: Vineaux (8)
Race 6
Post Time: 7:04 PM CST
Conditions: Allowance, La-Bred, 5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Pace Analysis
Tussling Charlie (1) is a dedicated front-runner with the rail. Craken Jax (5) has speed but will likely have to chase the #1.
Key Contenders
Tussling Charlie (1)
The controlling speed from the rail in a 5-furlong sprint. This is the “Free Square” scenario on the card. If he breaks clean, he is likely gone.
Craken Jax (5)
The main danger. He will sit off Tussling Charlie’s hip and try to wear him down.
Betting Strategy
This looks like a match race on paper. A cold Exacta 1-5 is the play.
Selections
Win: Tussling Charlie (1)
Place: Craken Jax (5)
Show: Marks Promise (6)
Race 7
Post Time: 7:32 PM CST
Conditions: Claiming $20,000, 7 Furlongs (Dirt)
Pace Analysis
Sweet Talkin Slick (4) and Max Is G Money (5) should ensure an honest pace. Frosty Blue (7) prefers to stalk.
Key Contenders
Frosty Blue (7)
Coming off competitive efforts, he fits this level well. Trainer Allen Landry spots his horses aggressively.
Bergheim (1)
Rail draw for trainer Jayde Gelner. Should save ground and be in the mix late.
Selections
Win: Frosty Blue (7)
Place: Bergheim (1)
Show: Sweet Talkin Slick (4)
Race 8
Post Time: 8:00 PM CST
Conditions: Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
Key Contenders
Spamalot (4)
A consistent runner for trainer Brett Brinkman. Has the tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.
Contrabandist (7)
The main threat from the outside. If the pace is hot, he will be the one closing fastest.
Selections
Win: Spamalot (4)
Place: Contrabandist (7)
Show: Pocketful of Money (5)
Race 9
Post Time: 8:28 PM CST
Conditions: Maiden Claiming $10,000, 1 Mile (Dirt)
Analysis
A tough nightcap with bottom-level maidens going a route of ground. No Soy Borracho (7) stands out on connections alone—trainer Juan Larrosa is the current meet leader and excels with these types. Pyromania (9) gets Tim Thornton, which is a huge jockey upgrade. B D Envisionist (2) draws well and has shown some ability to stay the distance.
Selections
Win: No Soy Borracho (7)
Place: Pyromania (9)
Show: B D Envisionist (2)
Jockey and Trainer Notes
Top Jockeys to Watch
- Vicente Del-Cid: The dominant rider at Delta Downs. He currently boasts a win percentage hovering near 27%. When he is on a speed horse (like Tussling Charlie in Race 6), he is extremely dangerous.
- Tim Thornton: A veteran who rides the track perfectly. Watch him on Bandido Deal (Race 5) and Pyromania (Race 9); he often gets extra run out of horses in the final furlong.
- Kevin Roman: A strong finisher who teams well with trainer Isai Gonzalez.
Top Trainers to Watch
- Juan Larrosa: Leading the trainer standings with a high win percentage. His entries in lower-level claiming races (like Race 9) are always “live.”
- W. Bret Calhoun: When he ships or enters horses here, they are meant to win. Race 5 features two of his runners; pay close attention to the tote board for which one is taking money.
- Isai V. Gonzalez: Excellent with claiming sprinters. His horses often outperform their odds.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6: #1 Tussling Charlie
The setup is perfect: 5 furlongs, rail draw, controlling speed, top jockey (Del-Cid). He checks every box for a Delta Downs winner.
Best Value Play
Race 4: #3 Destiny’s Grace
The morning line favorite (#10) is drawn in the parking lot. Destiny’s Grace has the inside post and the speed to take advantage of the favorite’s wide trip.
Suggested Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
- Race 6: 1
- Race 7: 1, 4, 7
- Race 8: 4, 5, 7
- Race 9: 2, 7, 9
- Ticket Cost: $13.50 for a $0.50 base wager.
