Ellis Park presents a competitive card on Sunday, August 17, 2025, highlighted by several notable wagering opportunities. The featured attraction includes a $100,000 Maiden Special Weight event in Race 9, while bettors can target a significant Jackpot Pick 6 carryover of $140,729 beginning with Race 4 at 2:16 PM ET.
Weather Forecast and Track Conditions
Current track conditions at Ellis Park show the dirt surface listed as Fast and the turf course rated as Firm. Weather conditions for race day present some challenges, with passing showers expected throughout the day and mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will range from a morning low of 83°F to an afternoon high of 92°F, with humidity levels reaching 79% in the morning and dropping to 58% during peak racing hours. The probability of precipitation varies from 23% to 56% throughout the day, with potential rainfall amounts of 0.02 to 0.09 inches.
Wind conditions are expected to remain relatively calm at 6-9 mph from the southwest to west-southwest direction. The combination of moisture and warm temperatures may affect track conditions as the day progresses, particularly if the predicted showers materialize during racing hours.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight
Juvenile fillies will race 5 1/2 furlongs in the opening leg. Tommy Town homebred #3 Love Divine (7-2) is bred to win early and has trained well on the oval in preparation for her debut. The Steve Asmussen trainee is out of a good one and will be ridden by Keith Asmussen.
Ontario-bred #10 Dancewhenyoucan (10-1) sold well as a yearling and could be a contender for Dallas Stewart, who’s more than capable in his debut. #12 Lady Law (10-1) is related to two two-year-old winners from three to have run, and is by 20% debut sire Tiz the Law. The Bret Calhoun trainee might be a precocious pick at a good price.
Race 8 – Optional Claiming
For the Turf Dash for fillies and mares, a field of nine has assembled, but we’ll stick with two contenders for the middle leg. #4 Niki Nine Doors (9-5) is the standout choice and likely to be a popular single. She won the Pea Patch S. over the surface last year and has the class to back it up. However, we’re a bit concerned she hasn’t won since her breakthrough on this course in 2024. Still, she’s a must-use with Tyler Gaffalione riding.
# At a glance, #8 Jill Jitterbug (10-1) seems like a stretch since she hasn’t hit the board since 2023. However, the mare has faced some tough competition this season and finds herself in a better spot today. One of two entries for Walsh, the five-year-old is down in class and also shortening the distance while coming in fresh. A win would significantly boost the payout.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight ($100,000)
The evening’s featured event presents a competitive field with Semper Primus installed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. Tre Italiani follows at 4/1 odds, while Divine Justice rounds out the top three choices at 5/1. The significant purse increase for this maiden event suggests connections believe they have legitimate prospects competing.
Other contenders include Atlal at 6/1, followed by a group at 8/1 odds consisting of Mischievous Intent, White Whale, Barker, and Stomp. Longshots Trouble Ahead and Ridge Of Fire both carry 12/1 odds, while Woodson, Dazzle A.P., and The Chalk are listed at 15/1. Wobbegong represents the longest shot on the board at 30/1.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most significant wagering opportunity centers on the Jackpot Pick 6 sequence beginning with Race 4. With a carryover of $140,729, this presents substantial value for players willing to construct multiple ticket combinations. The sequence timing, starting at 2:16 PM ET, allows bettors to assess early race results and track conditions before committing to later races.
Given the weather forecast calling for potential showers, monitoring track condition changes throughout the card becomes essential for successful wagering strategies. Horses with proven wet-track form may provide value if conditions deteriorate during the racing program.
The Pick 3 sequence highlighted in the weekly analysis focuses on the middle portion of the card, suggesting experienced handicappers have identified particular value in that segment of racing.
