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A nine-race card is on tap for Thursday at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. The program features a mix of maiden, claiming, and allowance races on both the main track and the turf course. The feature events are a pair of turf contests, Race 6 for allowance-level fillies and mares and Race 8, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies that could produce future stakes runners. The 2025-2026 meet is in full swing, with many of the continent’s top jockeys and trainers running horses at the historic oval.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for New Orleans on Thursday, December 11, calls for partly cloudy skies with a high temperature near 60 degrees. There is a minimal chance of precipitation, and winds are expected to be light. These conditions should allow for a fast main track and a firm turf course. The turf rail is set at 21 feet.
Historically, the Fair Grounds main track has shown a bias toward horses with early speed, particularly in sprint races at distances of six furlongs or less. Inside post positions are also generally advantageous on the dirt. On the turf course, the bias is less pronounced. In turf routes, closers have often performed well, especially in races with larger fields. However, with the rail at 21 feet, horses positioned on or near the lead could have an advantage.
1st Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 12:45 PM
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 1 Mile Turf
Pace Analysis
The pace in the opening race is projected to be honest, with several contenders possessing tactical speed. Global Honor is noted as the fastest starter and will likely vie for the early lead with Musical Band and Cajun Moviestar. A group of stalkers, including Metairie and Temple of Peace, should be positioned just behind the leaders, waiting to make their move.
Key Contenders
Analysis suggests Musical Band is a primary contender. With top jockey Jose L. Ortiz aboard for trainer Shane Wilson, this colt is expected to be forwardly placed and has shown enough in the past to be a major threat. Metairie, breaking from post 3 with Mitchell Murrill, is another horse that figures to be in the mix. His stalking style could be a perfect fit for the race shape.
Secondary Choices
Cajun Moviestar has demonstrated early speed in his previous starts and could be a factor from the outset. While he may face pressure on the front end, his early foot makes him a consideration for exotic wagers. Victory Prince, from the Scott Gelner barn, is another to consider. He has experience on the turf and should be running in the middle of the pack, looking to make one run.
Selections
Win: 5 Musical Band
Place: 3 Metairie
Show: 6 Cajun Moviestar
2nd Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 01:15 PM
CLAIMING, 1 Mile 70Y Dirt
Pace Analysis
This one-mile-and-seventy-yard event on the dirt is expected to feature a contested early pace. Dixie Doctor and Dan d’Oro are projected to be on or near the lead. Several others, including No Rematch and Muncle, are stalkers that will likely press the front-runners, ensuring a solid tempo throughout.
Key Contenders
Handicappers have identified Dan d’Oro as a top contender. Coming off a good second-place finish, the colt is expected to be the fastest horse in the early going under Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. Dixie Doctor, with Jose L. Ortiz riding for high-percentage trainer Joe Sharp, is also highly regarded. He should be prominent from the start and has the connections to see it through to the finish.
Secondary Choices
No Rematch, with Jareth Loveberry in the irons, is expected to be part of the early pace scenario and has a history of hitting the board. Muncle has shown a stalking running style and could benefit if the leaders go too fast, too soon. Wayllen Richard comes into the race off a last-out win and merits respect.
Selections
Win: 7 Dixie Doctor
Place: 5 Dan d’Oro
Show: 6 No Rematch
3rd Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 01:45 PM
CLAIMING, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Pace Analysis
A quick pace is expected in this six-furlong sprint. Malaki Empire, Colt’s Brim, and Gatsby’s Fortune are all expected to show early speed. The horse identified as the “Fastest Stalker” is Crigler, who should get a favorable setup just off the dueling leaders.
Key Contenders
Crigler appears to be the consensus choice in this race. His stalking running style seems perfectly suited for the expected race flow, and his recent form is solid, having finished second in his last start. Colt’s Brim is another key horse, expected to be on the lead and has a strong record at this distance.
Secondary Choices
Gordito Hermoso is a mid-pack runner who could pick up the pieces if the early pace is too hot. Malaki Empire is one of the likely front-runners and could hold on for a share if he can shake loose. Shawn’s Solving, despite a poor showing in his last race, has back-class that makes him a contender.
Selections
Win: 7 Crigler
Place: 3 Colt’s Brim
Show: 6 Gordito Hermoso
4th Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 02:15 PM
STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING, 1 1/16 Miles Turf
Pace Analysis
The pace in this large field is projected to be led by Big Scully. He is designated as the “Fast Leader” and will likely be pursued by a group of stalkers including Fortuity, the “Fastest Stalker,” along with Red Road, Ben Dreaming, and Boitano. The number of horses and the distance suggest the race could set up for a horse coming from off the pace.
Key Contenders
Boitano enters this race on a two-race winning streak and is considered a top contender to continue his good form. Big Scully, the likely pacesetter for trainer Shane Wilson, was an impressive winner in his last outing and will be dangerous if he can control the tempo. Fortuity has a high in-the-money percentage and his stalking style makes him a major threat.
Secondary Choices
Red Road was third behind Big Scully in their last start and figures to be in the mix again. Ben Dreaming has a good record and comes from a high-percentage barn. Mysterious Spirit is a closer who could be a threat if the pace is fast, and he gets a clean trip from his outside post.
Selections
Win: 9 Boitano
Place: 11 Big Scully
Show: 7 Fortuity
5th Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 02:45 PM
MAIDEN CLAIMING, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario for this maiden claiming sprint is not entirely clear, with several first-time starters. However, based on available data, That’s Apriority and Romeo Spikes are expected to show the most early speed, both being classified as “Fast Stalkers.” They should be prominent from the start.
Key Contenders
Based on consensus analysis, That’s Apriority and Romeo Spikes are the ones to beat. Both have consistently hit the board in their careers and have shown enough speed to be major factors throughout. That’s Apriority has finished second or third in eight of ten starts, while Romeo Spikes has been in the top three in four of his six races.
Secondary Choices
Classical Knight finished second in his most recent start and has a closing running style that could be effective if the front-runners falter. Custom Ride is making his first start but has a trainer, L. Jay Cuccia, who does well with debut runners. Louisiana Star is another first-time starter from a capable barn.
Selections
Win: 3 That’s Apriority
Place: 4 Romeo Spikes
Show: 1 Classical Knight
6th Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 03:15 PM
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING, 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf
Pace Analysis
A swift pace is anticipated in this turf sprint. Aldora is projected to be the quickest of the front-runners. A large group of “Fast Stalkers,” including Storm Miami, Biscuitwiththeboss, Beautiful Mischief, and Rue Lala, will be in close pursuit. Don’t Say It is noted as a “Fast Deep” closer, suggesting she will be rallying from the back of the pack.
Key Contenders
The Brad Cox-trained Don’t Say It is a strong contender. Her ability to close into a fast pace makes her a major threat, especially with Axel Concepcion riding. Storm Miami, from the barn of Brendan Walsh, is another key horse who will be forwardly placed and has the class to contend for the win. Amalfi Drive, trained by Michael Stidham and ridden by Jose L. Ortiz, is expected to be on the lead and could be difficult to catch.
Secondary Choices
Biscuitwiththeboss comes in with excellent form, having finished in the top three in her last three starts. Rue Lala consistently performs well at this level. Cairo Dream is a closer who could make an impact if the pace collapses.
Selections
Win: 9 Don’t Say It
Place: 11 Amalfi Drive
Show: 3 Storm Miami (IRE)
7th Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 03:45 PM
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING, 1 Mile Dirt
Pace Analysis
Gem Buoy is projected to be the “Fastest Leader” in this one-mile dirt race and should set the pace. He will likely be tracked by “Fast Stalkers” Sunday Breeze and American Dollars. The race could favor horses on or near the lead given the track’s typical bias.
Key Contenders
Sunday Breeze is considered a top contender based on his strong recent form and his stalking running style. He should get a favorable trip just off the leader. Gem Buoy, as the likely pacesetter, is a major threat to take the field wire-to-wire. Le Monstre Rapide, trained by Shane Wilson, is another horse that figures prominently in the analysis.
Secondary Choices
American Dollars should be part of the pace picture and has a solid record. Hard Line is a closer who could get a piece of the purse if the pace is contested. Our Majestic is a deep closer but has two wins in his last three starts and cannot be dismissed.
Selections
Win: 3 Sunday Breeze
Place: 7 Gem Buoy
Show: 2 Le Monstre Rapide
8th Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 04:15 PM
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, 1 Mile Turf
Pace Analysis
This maiden race for two-year-old fillies features many first or second-time starters, making the pace scenario difficult to predict. Based on limited information and trainer patterns, Ocala Gala, from the Cherie DeVaux barn with Jose Ortiz, could show speed. My Blue Line and Supreme Moon, both European-breds, may also be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Handicapping consensus points to a competitive race. Ocala Gala is a logical favorite given her top connections. High Street Pizzaz, trained by Joe Sharp, is another well-regarded filly. The two Brendan Walsh trainees, Lewinsky and Al Latafah, also warrant significant respect. My Blue Line, a Great Britain-bred for trainer Michael Stidham, is another with a strong chance.
Secondary Choices
Veto Proof, for leading trainer Tom Amoss, is a contender. Real Drama and Supreme Moon are other fillies who have received support from handicappers and could factor in the outcome. War Belle, also from the Stidham barn, is another to consider in exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: 10 Ocala Gala
Place: 9 My Blue Line (GB)
Show: 8 High Street Pizzaz
9th Race – Fair Grounds
Post Time: 04:45 PM
CLAIMING, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Pace Analysis
The final race of the day is projected to have a very fast pace. Premium is designated as the “Fastest Leader” and should be sent to the front. He will be pursued by a host of “Fast Stalkers,” including Letshaveonemore, Supremely, and Arthur. The race is likely to be decided by which horse can withstand the heat.
Key Contenders
Premium looks to be the horse to beat. He was a winner in his last start and possesses the most early speed in a race full of it. His trainer, Randy Degeyter, Jr., has a high win percentage. Letshaveonemore, from the powerful Robertino Diodoro barn, is another main contender who should be in a stalking position.
Secondary Choices
Flipping Fish is a closer who would benefit from a pace meltdown. Supremely is a consistent performer who should be in the mix. Oncoming Train comes into the race off a win and has a late-running style that could be effective here. Arthur is another who has shown winning form recently.
Selections
Win: 6 Premium
Place: 2 Letshaveonemore
Show: 1 Flipping Fish
Jockey Notes and Insights
The Fair Grounds jockey colony is among the best in the nation. For the current meet, Jose L. Ortiz is off to a strong start, leading all riders with 13 wins from 46 mounts, an impressive 28% strike rate. He has mounts in several key races today, including Musical Band (Race 1), Dixie Doctor (Race 2), Amalfi Drive (Race 6), and Ocala Gala (Race 8).
Other jockeys to watch include Jareth Loveberry, who consistently wins at a high percentage, and Mitchell Murrill, who is a perennial leading rider in Louisiana. Marcelino Pedroza, Jr. and Declan Cannon are also having solid meets and have several live mounts on today’s card. Axel Concepcion is another rider showing good results, particularly with his 11% win rate and 40% in-the-money percentage from a large number of starters.
Trainer Notes and Insights
The trainer standings for the current meet show a competitive landscape. Joe Sharp leads all trainers with 7 wins from 23 starters through December 8th. He sends out the likely favorite, Dixie Doctor, in Race 2. Brad Cox, a multiple Eclipse Award winner, has a strong presence at the meet and has Don’t Say It in Race 6.
Shane Wilson has one of the largest strings on the grounds and is always a threat, sending out several contenders today including Big Scully (Race 4) and Le Monstre Rapide (Race 7). Other trainers with high win percentages at the meet include Michael Stidham and Brendan P. Walsh, who both have strong contenders in today’s turf races. Eduardo Rodriguez has an excellent 22% win rate from 98 starters, making his entrant Supremely (Race 9) one to watch.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most likely wire-to-wire winner on the card appears to be Premium in Race 9. Given his status as the “Fastest Leader” and the track’s bias towards speed in dirt sprints, he could be a potential single in multi-race wagers like the Pick 3 or Pick 4.
In Race 8, the maiden turf race for fillies, the race appears wide open with many first-time starters and lightly raced horses. This could be a good race to spread deep in multi-race wagers or look for a price in the win pool. Ocala Gala is a logical favorite, but horses like My Blue Line or High Street Pizzaz could offer better value.
A potential value play could be Crigler in Race 3. While he is a likely favorite, his running style seems to fit the race shape perfectly. The pace is expected to be fast, and as the “Fastest Stalker,” he should get a perfect trip to run down the leaders in the stretch. Combining him in exacta and trifecta wagers with the speed horses could be a profitable strategy.
