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Friday’s eight-race card at Fair Grounds is a mixed program of lower- to mid-level claiming races, maiden claimers, and a featured restricted stakes, the Magic City Classic, for Alabama-breds at one mile on dirt in race 6.​

Three races are scheduled for the turf (races 3, 5, and 7), all at one mile or shorter, with the rail set at 21 feet per the overnight. The remaining races are on the main dirt track, including the mile-and-70-yard maiden claimer that opens the card and the Louisiana-bred claiming route that closes it.

Field sizes are healthy, with large, competitive groups in the turf claimers (14 entered in race 3 and 15 in race 7, with also-eligibles) and a full nine-horse field in the finale. The Magic City Classic has a compact but deep field of eight Alabama-breds, including last year’s winner Liken It and familiar rivals Jovie G and Wabash.​

Public handicappers generally see heavy favorites in a few key spots (Prince Day in race 1, Gypsan and Midnight Blaze in race 2, Same Play or Southscape in race 3, and Island Cabana or Duvee in race 8), with more spread-out opinions and potential value in the turf claimers and the Magic City Classic. This card sets up well for multi-race wagers that lean on a couple of strong chalks while spreading in the deeper races.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Medium-range and day-specific forecasts for New Orleans on December 12, 2025 call for seasonably mild conditions, with daytime highs in the low to mid 70s Fahrenheit and lows in the mid 50s, under mostly cloudy skies and light winds around 7 mph. December climatology for New Orleans suggests about 10 rainy days in the month, but the specific forecast for the 12th indicates only a modest chance of precipitation, not a prolonged storm.​

Given the mild temperatures, no recent heavy rain indicated for the day itself, and the track’s winter maintenance patterns, the main track is likely to start the card as fast or close to it, with the turf course firm to good barring any unexpected showers. There is no official track condition posted yet; surface ratings should be confirmed closer to first post, as even a brief shower could temporarily move the turf to “good” and introduce some cut in the ground.​

If rain does materialize during the card, the dirt could transition to good or muddy; note that Fair Grounds’ deep dirt surface can become more demanding when wet, while a sloppy surface sometimes plays similarly to fast in terms of final times but may accentuate certain running styles.​

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Long-term Fair Grounds statistics show a few consistent patterns:

On the dirt:
Inside posts have historically been advantageous in routes. In recent seasons, posts 1–3 have captured more than half of dirt routes, with posts 1–3 winning about 54 percent of such races in one recent meet sample. Inside speed in dirt sprints has also been potent, with inside posts combined winning a large share of six-furlong events, especially when paired with early pace.​

However, Fair Grounds’ relatively long homestretch on dirt also allows off-the-pace horses to be effective, particularly in routes. Late tactical speed and stalkers within a few lengths of the lead by the second call have done very well. On this card, that is particularly relevant in races 1, 2, 6, and 8.​

On the turf:
In turf routes, closers and stalkers have tended to outperform pure front-runners. A recent meet showed closers winning about 40 percent of turf routes and stalkers another 38 percent, with early leaders winning only about 22 percent. Inside to middle posts are modestly preferred, but the bias is much less extreme than on dirt.​

In turf sprints, speed has a mild edge, but posts have played relatively fair across the 2020s sample, with only a slight underperformance from the deepest outside gates.​

With the rail at 21 feet today on the turf, saving ground into the turns and securing a forward but not suicidal position should be advantageous, especially in the large fields for races 3 and 7, where traffic and wide trips can be costly.

1st Race – Maiden Claiming – 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt

Maiden claiming, three and up, 12,500 tag. Six-horse field.

Post Time

12:45 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

Computer-based figures classify multiple runners as leaders or pace-pressers and one as the “fastest stalker.” Max S is listed as a slower leads type, Classic Sensation as slowest leads, and Tonka Trouble as a slower leader, while Prince Day is tagged as the fastest stalker, with Gold Gunner a slower stalker and Full Command a mid-pack deep runner.​

This setup points to an honest but not blazing route pace, with Max S, Classic Sensation, and Tonka Trouble likely to be involved early, and Prince Day tracking just behind that group. Full Command should be near the rear early and hoping for some attrition up front.​

Given the Fair Grounds dirt-route profile favoring inside posts and forward tactical positioning, Prince Day’s inside draw and stalking style are an ideal combination for this configuration.​

Key Contenders

Prince Day (post 1)
Strong public-consensus favorite. One set of figures gives him a roughly 39 percent win chance and 69 percent place probability, highest in the field by a clear margin. He has already placed twice going a mile at Fair Grounds and owns route experience at Churchill and Hawthorne as well. The style tag of fastest stalker fits well in a race where multiple others are designated as leaders. He gets a high-percentage local rider in Jareth Loveberry and is also the top choice of several public handicappers.​

Tonka Trouble (post 6)
Class-dropping 4-year-old with a “slower leader” style, positioned to be part of the forward group without needing the lead at any cost. A public handicapper makes him the top play, and others use him as a strong secondary choice behind Prince Day. His overall mark (0-for-4 with one show) is light, but his prior efforts suggest he can sustain a route pace at this level, and he projects a good trip pressing from the outside.​

Secondary Choices

Full Command (post 3)
A three-year-old colt still searching for his level, with no in-the-money finishes from six starts but a respectable 28 percent modeled win probability behind Prince Day. His prior starts have come mostly on turf routes, where he has been overmatched; the surface switch and drop into a 12,500 maiden claimer may finally put him where he can be competitive. The mid-pack deep style suggests he will need the pace to stay honest and the leaders not to have too much left late.​

Max S (post 2)
Twelve-race maiden but with multiple placings, including routes at Fair Grounds and Louisiana Downs. Tagged as slower leads, he is likely to attend the pace from the inside and could get an ideal ground-saving trip if allowed to cruise. His projected win probability is lower than Full Command’s (around 17 percent) but still makes him usable underneath in exotics.​

Longshots

Gold Gunner (post 4) and Classic Sensation (post 5)
Both are winless with limited in-the-money form. Gold Gunner is described as a slower stalker, Classic Sensation as slowest leads. They rate behind the top four on various probability models and public tip sheets, but either could clunk up for a minor share if one of the main players underperforms.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Prince Day will be a very short price on most boards, and the probabilistic models justify that favoritism. He can be treated as a single in verticals and multi-race bets by players comfortable leaning on chalk.​

For win betting, it is worth demanding at least a modest premium versus his implied probability. If he drops well below even-money, some players may prefer to skip the straight win bet and focus on exotics keyed around him on top.

Tonka Trouble is the logical alternative and an “insurance” type. Exactas with Prince Day over Tonka Trouble and Full Command, and small savers reversing Tonka Trouble over Prince Day, make sense. Trip-wise, Tonka Trouble could get first jump on Prince Day if the latter is briefly pocketed behind dueling leaders inside.

Selections

Win: Prince Day
Place: Tonka Trouble
Show: Full Command

2nd Race – Claiming – 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt

Conditioned 5,000 claimer for fillies and mares, non-winners of four or with limited recent wins. Seven-horse field.

Post Time

1:15 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

Pace figures show several pace-pressing or on-the-lead horses but only one clear closer. Gypsan is identified as the fastest closer, while Midnight Blaze is the fastest stalker. Dreamy Deal is labeled slowest leader, and No Cost and Lily’s Creed are slower leads types; Roll Gypsy Roll is a fast stalker who can sit just off the front.

With multiple leaders and near-leaders, the early stages could be contested; Dreamy Deal, No Cost, Lily’s Creed, and Midnight Blaze all have incentives to be forward. Gypsan, from the rail, will likely tuck in mid-pack and look to make a sustained run, taking advantage of any late fatigue up front.​

Key Contenders

Gypsan (post 1)
Modeled win and place probabilities (27 percent win, 58 percent place) are tied for best in the race, and she is the first choice of several public handicappers. She consistently runs well at this level, with a record of 4 wins, 9 seconds, and 12 thirds from 31 starts, and specifically good recent efforts at this mile trip at Fair Grounds and Louisiana Downs. Her closer style is attractive given the number of forward types signed on, and she draws ideally inside with a capable local barn and hot rider Isaac Castillo.​

Midnight Blaze (post 5)
Also given a 27 percent win probability and 58 percent place chance in one figure set, essentially co-top with Gypsan. She owns a strong 4-for-13 career mark with 5 additional in-the-money finishes and has shown versatility across surfaces. As the fastest stalker, she can sit just behind the primary pace and get the first run on Gypsan turning for home. Several handicappers rank her either just behind Gypsan or co-top choice.​

Secondary Choices

Roll Gypsy Roll (post 2)
A durable mare with 4 wins and 11 seconds from 33 starts, classified as a fast stalker. She is likely to secure a ground-saving, just-off-the-pace trip, ideal at this configuration. Projection models give her a meaningful but smaller chance than the top pair, making her a key underneath play, especially in exactas and trifectas.

No Cost (post 6) and Lily’s Creed (post 7)
Both are slower leads types with multiple placings at route distances and moderate win percentages (around 12–15 percent overall). They figure to be involved early from outer posts and could hang on for a share if the top pair encounter traffic or underperform. They are logical tri and super fillers.

Longshots

Dreamy Deal (post 3) and Bella Carmelina (post 4)
Dreamy Deal is lightly raced but comes off a sprint win at Delta Downs and is tagged as slowest leader; stretching from sprint to route, she could add an extra pace element but is unproven beyond seven furlongs. Bella Carmelina is a mid-pack deep type with modest numbers at the route level. Both look more like fringe exotics candidates in this spot.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a classic two-horse race on paper. Multi-race players can reasonably lean on the Gypsan–Midnight Blaze pair, with small backups including Roll Gypsy Roll for those aiming to cover chaos.

In single-race wagers, playing Gypsan and Midnight Blaze equally in exacta keys over Roll Gypsy Roll, No Cost, and Lily’s Creed leverages their clear advantage. If the board overbets Gypsan relative to Midnight Blaze given their similar projections, Midnight Blaze may offer slightly more win value.

Given the likely contested pace among the leaders, late-running Gypsan has a particularly appealing profile, especially if the track plays fairly or slightly toward off-the-pace runners in dirt routes that day.​

Selections

Win: Gypsan
Place: Midnight Blaze
Show: Roll Gypsy Roll

3rd Race – Claiming – 1 Mile Turf (LA-breds, N2L)

Large, competitive LA-bred claiming group on the grass. Fourteen entered; check scratches and surface status close to post.

Post Time

1:45 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

Pace tags show a significant number of forward or “fast” types. Same Play is labeled fastest leads; Doolgaroux and Josh G are fast closers, Big Nickel, Emily’s Boy, Mardi Gras Empire, Single Shot, Aries Honor, and others are various forms of fast stalkers, while Magnolia West is fastest deep.​

With Same Play drawn in post 7 and carrying a fastest leads tag, plus additional pace from Mardi Gras Empire and several stalking types drawn middle to outside, this shapes up as a race with at least moderate to strong early fractions. In a 14-horse turf route at Fair Grounds, that can play perfectly into the hands of tactical stalkers and mid-pack runners who secure inside or second-flight trips.​

Key Contenders

Same Play (post 7)
Computer models and multiple handicappers make Same Play the narrow top choice, with one service listing him as the number-one expected finisher. He has enough speed to control or sit just off the pace, but the concern is the amount of other speed signed on. From post 7, a sharp break could have him on or near the lead into the first turn, and if the turf is on the firmer side, he may be able to ration speed effectively.​

Southscape (post 9)
A strong consensus contender. One public handicapper lists him as the top pick for the race, and probability figures assign him a 3-to-1 morning line with a “fastest stalker” style. He fits the ideal Fair Grounds turf-route profile: tactical speed, proven at the mile, and drawn toward the middle where he can drop in behind the pace. Given the expected race shape, he may get the first run on the tiring leaders and has the right style to capitalize.​

Single Shot (post 11)
Veteran turf router with plenty of experience and a fast stalker designation. He should find a stalking position in the second flight and could finish strongly if the front end overdoes it. Handicappers rate him as a solid secondary but win-capable player at an acceptable price.​

Secondary Choices

Social Solution (post 1) and Doolgaroux (post 2)
From the inside draws, both have the chance to secure ground-saving trips in mid-pack. Doolgaroux is rated as a fast closer and has respectable connections, while Social Solution has enough tactical ability to stay within striking range. They are usable underneath and as backup win candidates if Same Play and Southscape fail to fire.​

Magnolia West (post 8) and Mardi Gras Empire (post 10)
Magnolia West is tagged fastest deep, suggesting a drop-back closing style that could be ideal if the pace is very strong. Mardi Gras Empire is a lightly raced fast stalker with upside, although he has been on also-eligible lists recently and is stepping into a larger group. Both offer mid-price appeal in vertical exotics.​

Longshots

Aries Honor (post 13) and Tsuperman (post 14)
Both are drawn wide and listed as fast stalkers, which could lead to ground loss into both turns. They have the ability to compete on their best day but will need an ideal trip and some racing luck from those outside posts. They profile more as longshot inclusion types in the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

With the expected honest to strong pace and Fair Grounds’ turf-route closer bias, keying Southscape and Same Play as primary win candidates makes sense, with Single Shot and Magnolia West as key upset alternatives.​

Players can consider structuring exactas and trifectas around Southscape and Same Play on top, with Social Solution, Doolgaroux, Single Shot, Magnolia West, and Mardi Gras Empire underneath. Given the field size, even modest tickets can return well.

In multi-race wagers, including at least three horses here (Southscape, Same Play, and Single Shot or Magnolia West) is advisable unless taking a very aggressive stance on one of the top two.

Selections

Win: Southscape
Place: Same Play
Show: Single Shot

4th Race – Maiden Claiming – 6 Furlongs Dirt (Two-Year-Olds)

Two-year-old maiden claimers at 15,000. Several first-time starters and lightly raced types.

Post Time

2:15 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

Most of the field consists of debut runners, for whom no pace data are yet available. Existing data show Run David Run as a mid-pack stalker and Brock’s Boy as mid-pack deep, with Heavenly Beliefs exiting a single start at Hawthorne; the rest (Campanario, Azteca Storm, Our Standard, Deckhand) have no established style in the figures.​

Juvenile maiden claimers at six furlongs often develop a contested early pace as inexperienced horses and riders vie for position. With multiple unknowns and a few horses from barns that are not shy about having them ready to show speed, the safest assumption is of at least a fair early tempo, but detailed pace projections cannot be made without full past performances.​

Key Contenders

Our Standard (post 4)
Morning-line favorite and top-rated by several handicappers. He debuts for a high-percentage trainer in Albert Stall Jr. with a strong rider in Axel Concepcion; one set of probabilities gives him the highest expected ranking in the field despite the lack of race data, reflecting confidence in the connections and placement. He figures to be well-prepared and should attract heavy tote support.​

Azteca Storm (post 2)
A debut colt with strong trainer-rider statistics: Tanner Tracy and Ben Curtis are both winning at good rates at Fair Grounds and elsewhere, and the model assigns Azteca Storm the highest win percentage in the field at around 38 percent in one projection, tied with Our Standard in practical terms. If the board shows value relative to Our Standard, Azteca Storm is a very attractive alternative.​

Secondary Choices

Run David Run (post 3)
The only entrant with meaningful racing experience and known style; he is a mid-pack stalker who has been running at Delta Downs and Gulfstream in maiden company. While he has not yet finished in the money in two starts, that experience edge over first-time rivals can be valuable at this level, and one public handicapper gives him a high expected finish ranking.​

Campanario (post 1) and Heavenly Beliefs (post 5)
Campanario debuts from the rail for a trainer with respectable statistics and a capable rider in Declan Cannon; Heavenly Beliefs has one start at Hawthorne under his belt and draws Devin Magnon with Wayne Catalano as trainer, another positive connection pattern. Both can be considered “B-level” win candidates and logical tri fillers.​

Deckhand (post 6) and Brock’s Boy (post 7)
Deckhand is a first-time starter for Shane Wilson, a barn that can pop at a price, and Brock’s Boy has four prior starts and a mid-pack deep profile that may be more effective with experience and a stronger pace scenario. They are more interesting as exotics inclusions than top win choices unless the tote suggests unusual support.​

Longshots

There is no obvious “throwout” in a maiden race this lightly exposed, but Brock’s Boy, with multiple off-the-board efforts, is a bit less appealing on the win end than the more lightly raced or debuting rivals, absent a major board clue.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Given the heavy uncertainty, this is a race where watching the tote and paddock closely is critical. On paper, Our Standard and Azteca Storm are the two logical keys, with Run David Run as the main “known quantity” threat.

Multi-race players may want to spread at least three deep (Our Standard, Azteca Storm, Run David Run) and consider a fourth such as Campanario or Heavenly Beliefs if budget allows.

Straight wagers should only be made if one of the top two offers a better price than their apparent dominance would suggest. Exactas boxing Our Standard and Azteca Storm, with Run David Run and Campanario underneath, offer a good balance of safety and upside.

Selections

Win: Our Standard
Place: Azteca Storm
Show: Run David Run

5th Race – Claiming – 5 Furlongs Turf (F&M, N4L/Condition)

Nine older fillies and mares sprinting five furlongs on turf for a 20,000 tag. Pace-rich and competitive.

Post Time

2:45 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

Figures show this as a high-velocity turf sprint. Bayou Bertie is labeled fastest leads; Baby Kristen is a fast leader; Spinning Glory and Annie’s Joy are fast leads; Rambert is the fastest stalker; Rumpus is a slower stalker; Callem All is mid-pack deep; All About Me is mid-pack stalker.​

With at least four designated front-running types (Bayou Bertie, Baby Kristen, Spinning Glory, Annie’s Joy), the first quarter could be sharp, especially with short run to the turn and multiple riders wanting position. In a Fair Grounds turf sprint at five furlongs, tactical speed is usually key, but an overly hot pace can bring a mid-pack stalker like Rambert or a deep-type like Callem All into the picture late.​

Key Contenders

Bayou Bertie (post 1)
A model-based favorite with very high in-the-money projections (one set suggests extremely high place and show probabilities) and a “fastest leads” profile. She breaks from the rail with Marcelino Pedroza Jr., a strong speed rider, and figures to be either on the lead or pressing inside. Her turf sprint record and figures point to her as the one to catch, and she is a key contender on most public sheets.​

Baby Kristen (post 2)
Veteran mare with a “fast leader” style and excellent connections, including a trainer who has been very efficient at Fair Grounds. She is a top pick for several handicappers and generally rated just behind Bayou Bertie. From post 2, she can either press Bayou Bertie or sit just outside, in an ideal stalking spot.​

Secondary Choices

Spinning Glory (post 4) and Annie’s Joy (post 8)
Both are tagged as fast leads types and have competitive turf sprint form. They are not as strongly rated as Bayou Bertie or Baby Kristen by the projections, but they could get loose if the inside pair do not break sharply, or sit just off that duel if the rider chooses. They are useful in exactas and trifectas, particularly underneath.​

Rambert (post 6)
Classy mare with a fastest stalker designation and a solid 5-for-25 career record. She has run well in multiple turf sprints at Hawthorne and can sit just behind the speed wave, which is a perfect profile for this pace scenario. A few public handicappers regard her as a live upset candidate, especially if the inside speed softens each other up.​

Rumpus (post 9)
Rumpus is a slower stalker drawn wide, but her overall record and turf experience make her a logical exotics player. With a strong win percentage for her rider and a trainer that places horses realistically, she could benefit if the leading group falters.​

Longshots

Chaparrita (post 3), Callem All (post 5), and All About Me (post 7)
Chaparrita and All About Me have mid-pack profiles with mixed recent form; Callem All has a mid-pack deep designation and prefers to make one late run. Callem All is especially interesting as a bomb who could pass many tired horses into a collapsing pace. They are all logical superfecta or deep trifecta inclusions.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race is a good target for spreading with a pace-based bias. Bayou Bertie and Baby Kristen are the most likely winners on paper, but an exacta that includes Rambert and perhaps Spinning Glory or Annie’s Joy offers a chance to beat one of the top two at a good price.

Multi-race players might key Bayou Bertie and Baby Kristen, with Rambert as a key backup. In verticals, consider exactas keyed around Bayou Bertie and Baby Kristen on top, with Rambert, Spinning Glory, Annie’s Joy, and Rumpus underneath, and small saver tickets with Rambert on top if the tote offers value.

Selections

Win: Bayou Bertie
Place: Baby Kristen
Show: Rambert

6th Race – Magic City Classic Stakes – 1 Mile Dirt (Alabama-breds)

Eighty-five-thousand-dollar restricted stakes for Alabama-bred three-year-olds and up. Eight-horse field: Moor to Conquer, Channelfortynine, Liken It, Wabash, Aoide, Unaffiliated, Dromas, Jovie G.​

Post Time

3:15 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

The available public summaries and racecards provide form and class insights but do not supply the detailed pace-style breakdowns available for the claiming races. Without full running lines, a precise pace map is not possible here.​

What is clear is that several runners have established route form at Fair Grounds, including last year’s winner Liken It, who has proven one-mile dirt ability at this level, with Jovie G and Wabash also possessing sustained mile form. With a compact field of experienced routers, an honest, evenly run pace is likely, rather than a runaway speed duel or crawling tempo, but that must be confirmed by watching warm-ups and early fractions.​

Key Contenders

Liken It (post 3)
Defending champion of this race and a proven specialist at this one-mile Fair Grounds configuration. Irish-based form commentary notes that he won last year’s renewal over Jovie G and Dromas and has maintained competitive form since. His combination of tactical speed and stamina is ideal, and he should be forwardly placed in a race where class counts for a lot. Morning-line odds around 3 to 1 reflect his status as a primary win candidate.​

Jovie G (post 8)
A high-class Alabama-bred with strong recent form and a good record at this level, listed as projected favorite around 5 to 2 on one prominent racecard. She chased Liken It home last year and has won or placed against similar company since. Drawn outside, she can stalk the pace and avoid traffic, making her a very serious win threat.​

Wabash (post 4)
Noted in form analysis as having a recent win two back and overall consistent efforts at the mile. He figures as a mid-price contender capable of upsetting if he gets a favorable trip. His running style in prior races suggests that he is comfortable sitting just behind the leaders, which is a good profile in this kind of small-field route.​

Secondary Choices

Dromas (post 7)
Finished behind Liken It and Jovie G in last year’s running and has maintained respectable form. He is a logical secondary player who can be used in exactas and trifectas, especially underneath the main pair.​

Aoide (post 5) and Unaffiliated (post 6)
Mid-range prices on the morning line, both appear to have enough quality to compete for minor awards. The limited public commentary portrays them as capable of picking up pieces if the main trio underperform.​

Longshots

Moor to Conquer (post 1) and Channelfortynine (post 2)
Moor to Conquer is a much bigger price on the early line (around 30 to 1), and Channelfortynine also sits in the longer-odds range. They will need substantial improvement and a dream trip to threaten for the win, but in a small field they can still be factored into deep verticals.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race revolves around the defending champion Liken It and the likely favorite Jovie G, with Wabash the most credible upsetter. Horizontal bettors can treat Liken It and Jovie G as co-anchors, with Wabash as insurance.

In verticals, exactas boxing Liken It and Jovie G, and a trifecta including Wabash and Dromas in the second and third spots, are logical. If the odds gap between Jovie G and Liken It becomes pronounced, value may tilt toward the one offering the higher price, given their overlapping credentials.

Because class and familiarity with the Fair Grounds mile are so important here, giving extra weight to last year’s race and recent local form is appropriate.​

Selections

Win: Liken It
Place: Jovie G
Show: Wabash

7th Race – Claiming – 1 Mile Turf (N4L/Condition)

Fifteen entered, including also-eligibles, for a 15,000 claiming turf mile. Deep, competitive group with several known turf routers.

Post Time

3:45 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

Pace designations suggest a very lively early tempo. Deccan Prince is tagged as a mid-pack leader from the inside; Pico d’Oro is fast leads; Parrot Head is a fast stalker; Brit’s Wit is fast leads; Gorilla Trek is fast leads; Towering Storm is a fast closer; Bizzee Channel is fastest leads; Bello Creedo is slowest leader; several others are mid-pack stalkers.

With at least four true front-running or near-front types (Pico d’Oro, Brit’s Wit, Gorilla Trek, Bizzee Channel), and additional pace from Deccan Prince, this race projects strong early fractions. On the Fair Grounds turf at a mile, such a scenario often sets up for tactical stalkers or strong closers, especially given the long stretch.​

Key Contenders

Brit’s Wit (post 4)
A key consensus horse. Probability figures give him a significant win and place chance, and several handicappers place him among the top one or two selections. He is a seasoned turf router with multiple strong efforts in similar company and has a fast leads style that can secure prime early position. The risk is the projected pace battle, but his overall class and rider-trainer combination (Jose L. Ortiz and Michael Maker) mark him as a major player.​

Deccan Prince (post 1)
Inside draw, mid-pack leader style, and excellent record at the Fair Grounds mile, including a win from eight tries at this track and distance. Models assign him meaningful win and in-the-money probabilities, and one public analyst ranks him just behind Brit’s Wit in expected finish. From the rail, he can secure a ground-saving tracking trip just behind the pure speed.​

Bizzee Channel (post 14)
Despite the outside draw, Bizzee Channel is rated with one of the higher win-probability profiles in the field (22–42–63 probabilities in one model) and labeled fastest leads. He has classier back form from tougher circuits and has repeatedly run well at one-mile turf distances; the main question is trip from the far outside. He has been singled out as a primary win candidate by some computer-based projections.

Secondary Choices

Gorilla Trek (post 7)
A top selection for some public handicappers and the single for at least one public pickster in this race. His fast leads style and middle draw allow flexibility: he can push the tempo or sit just off the other speeds. However, with so much pace signed on, he may be somewhat pace-compromised unless the track is playing particularly kindly to speed on the day.​

Contemplation (post 6) and Towering Storm (post 8)
Contemplation is a mid-pack leads type with strong in-the-money percentages and a recent good effort at a mile on turf at Fair Grounds, making him a live second-tier player. Towering Storm is a fast closer, and his style is exactly what one wants to see in a race like this; he could be rolling late if the leaders soften each other up. Both are very usable in trifectas and as backup win candidates.

Even the Wind (post 5), Mailman Money (post 10), Skipper’s Pride (post 11), All in Sync (post 13), Ricky Bobby (post 15), and Z Z’s Prince (post 9)
These mid-pack stalker or deep-type runners may benefit from pace and trip. Even the Wind in particular has a high overall in-the-money rate and fits the closer-favoring Fair Grounds turf-route profile. Skipper’s Pride and Mailman Money bring solid resumes and dangerous barns, while All in Sync and Ricky Bobby come from connections that place them aggressively.​

Longshots

Pico d’Oro (post 2) and Parrot Head (post 3)
Both have long-shot-level win chances per the projections but could factor early as pace players. Pico d’Oro’s fast leads style from low weight could send him to the front, and if the turf is firmer and playing to speed, he is a potential pace outlier. Bello Creedo, a slowest leader, is another who could go forward early but projects as a deeper outsider.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is the deepest, most complex race on the card and a prime spot to look for value. Horizontal players should consider spreading five or more deep, with Brit’s Wit, Deccan Prince, Bizzee Channel, Gorilla Trek, and a closer such as Towering Storm or Even the Wind as primary inclusions.

Vertical players can lean on Brit’s Wit and Deccan Prince in the top two slots while using a wide array of stalkers and closers underneath. Because Bizzee Channel’s wide post will be obvious to the public, his price may drift upward; he can be a very attractive key in some trifecta structures if expected to overcome the draw.

Given Fair Grounds’ turf-route stats, prioritizing horses who can sit just off the pace and finish—rather than the pure speed—should be slightly favored, unless the early races show an unusually strong speed bias.​

Selections

Win: Brit’s Wit
Place: Deccan Prince
Show: Bizzee Channel

8th Race – Claiming – 1 Mile Dirt (LA-breds, N3L)

Accredited Louisiana-bred claiming 5,000, non-winners of three, closing the card with nine runners.

Post Time

4:15 PM CT.

Pace Analysis

Pace tags show a balanced mixture of leaders and closers. Duvee and Contraband Early are mid-pack leads types; Midnight Halo is a fast leader; Regatta Bay is a mid-pack stalker; Island Cabana is the fastest closer; Hawaiian Argument is slower deep; Saucy Argument is a mid-pack closer; My Dad’s Guitar is slowest stalker; Stone Alliance is a slower closer.​

This mix should yield an honest pace without an extreme meltdown. Duvee and Midnight Halo likely vie for forward positions, with Contraband Early close, while Island Cabana, Saucy Argument, Regatta Bay, and Stone Alliance bide their time behind.​

Fair Grounds’ dirt-route inside-post edge and preference for horses within a few lengths of the lead by the second call favor horses like Duvee and Island Cabana that combine inside draws with tactical or late speed.​

Key Contenders

Island Cabana (post 2)
A consensus top selection on multiple public sheets and the highest projected win probability in one model (around 25 percent, with strong place and show chances). Labeled fastest closer, he should get an ideal trip tucked inside behind the pace and make a sustained run turning for home. His route record and Louisiana-bred form are solid, and his connections are capable in this class band.​

Duvee (post 1)
Draws the rail and carries a mid-pack leads tag, meaning he can secure ground-saving position just behind or on the pace. His projected win and place probabilities are also high, and at least one public handicapper makes him the best bet on the card. His combination of experience and tactical speed at this level makes him a strong co-favorite in practical terms.​

Secondary Choices

Contraband Early (post 3) and Regatta Bay (post 7)
Contraband Early is another mid-pack leads type with decent overall win and in-the-money rates and a trainer who has been active with Louisiana-bred claimers. Regatta Bay is more of a mid-pack stalker and could offer a good price if the top pair get embroiled in a pace dispute.​

Midnight Halo (post 8)
Fast leader from an outer post, with figures that suggest he can be dangerous if he clears without heavy early pressure. He is a secondary win threat and a must-use in exotics for players building around pace-contingent tickets.​

Longshots

My Dad’s Guitar (post 4), Hawaiian Argument (post 5), Saucy Argument (post 6), and Stone Alliance (post 9)
These are more exotics-oriented entrants. Saucy Argument (mid-pack closer) and Stone Alliance (slower closer) are capable of picking up pieces if the leaders tire. Hawaiian Argument and My Dad’s Guitar will need their absolute best and a favorable race flow to threaten for the win, but have sufficient form to justify inclusion in the third and fourth positions of trifectas and superfectas.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Island Cabana and Duvee are co-keys. Players can structure wagers assuming that one of the two wins, with Contraband Early, Regatta Bay, and Midnight Halo as primary upsetters.

For verticals, exactas and trifectas keyed around Island Cabana and Duvee in the top two spots, with Contraband Early, Regatta Bay, Midnight Halo, and Saucy Argument underneath, make sense. Because both Island Cabana and Duvee will attract considerable support, the best value may come from leaning hardest on them in multi-race wagers and trying to catch a price horse in the minor spots in this race itself.

Selections

Win: Island Cabana
Place: Duvee
Show: Contraband Early

Jockey Notes and Insights

Recent Fair Grounds jockey standings and prior-meet statistics highlight several key riders appearing on today’s card.​

Jose L. Ortiz dominated the 2024–25 meet with 98 wins from 340 mounts (29 percent), and he returns this season with strong impact on turf and dirt routes alike. On today’s card, he is aboard Same Play in race 3 and Brit’s Wit in race 7, both of whom are key contenders in turf routes that suit his patient, tactical style. His presence is a major positive signal in those races.​

Jareth Loveberry, who finished second behind Ortiz in wins last meet (55 victories, about 14 percent), continues to ride at a high level locally. He has key mounts on Prince Day in race 1, A Passive Nobody in race 3, Callem All in race 5, Wabash in the Magic City Classic, Gorilla Trek in race 7, and Island Cabana in race 8. His record with early-to-mid-pack runners at Fair Grounds makes him particularly dangerous on Prince Day and Island Cabana.​

Ben Curtis and Mitchell Murrill were also among the leading riders at the prior meet and retain strong strike rates. Curtis appears on Doolgaroux in race 3, Azteca Storm in race 4, and All in Sync in race 7, while Murrill rides Run David Run in race 4, Rambert in race 5, Bizzee Channel in race 7, and Midnight Halo in race 8. Curtis tends to excel on horses with tactical speed on turf and dirt, while Murrill has a knack for well-timed closing rides.​

Marcelino Pedroza Jr., Colby Hernandez, CJ McMahon, James Graham, Axel Concepcion, Isaac Castillo, Emanuel Nieves, Hunter Rea, and Devin Magnon all have meaningful win totals at Fair Grounds over recent meets and appear throughout the card on both main-track and turf runners. Pedroza in particular is notable on speed horses like Bayou Bertie (race 5) and Duvee (race 8). Castillo shows up on Gypsan and Southscape (races 2 and 3), Deccan Prince (race 7), and Contraband Early (race 8), which enhances confidence in those runners’ chances.​

Given these statistics, upgrades are warranted for Same Play (Ortiz), Brit’s Wit (Ortiz), Prince Day (Loveberry), Island Cabana (Loveberry), and Bizzee Channel (Murrill), especially in close decision points.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Historical Fair Grounds trainer standings underscore the strength of several barns represented today.​

Joe Sharp led the 2024–25 meet with 40 wins from 151 starters (about 26 percent), followed closely by Brad Cox, who had 31 wins from 102 starts (30 percent). While neither trainer is heavily represented on today’s card, their runners always warrant respect when they appear.​

Shane Wilson has been a high-volume participant at Fair Grounds, with 27 wins from 266 starters at the 2024–25 meet (10 percent) and frequently conditions Louisiana-bred and claiming-level runners. Today he sends out Gypsan (race 2), Magnolia West and Southscape’s stablemate in race 3, Deckhand (race 4), and Deccan Prince and Parrot Head in race 7, among others. His horses often offer value, and his turf routers have repeatedly improved at Fair Grounds.​

Eduardo Rodriguez, with 17 wins from 96 starters last meet (18 percent), is another important barn, represented by Dreamy Deal in race 2, Spinning Glory and Rambert in race 5, and a couple of others on the card. His runners tend to be well-conditioned and can outrun their odds in claiming and allowance spots.​

Michael Maker (Brit’s Wit in race 7) and Jonathan Wong (Baby Kristen in race 5, Jovie G in race 6, All in Sync in race 7) both bring powerful national operations that travel well and routinely win at Fair Grounds at high percentages. Their presence significantly boosts confidence in those particular runners.​

Other notable barns on the card include Keith Bourgeois (Midnight Blaze), Albert Stall Jr. (Our Standard), Wayne Catalano (Heavenly Beliefs), Alexis Claire (Contemplation and Gorilla Trek), Joe O. Duhon (Emily’s Boy and Pico d’Oro), and Sam David Jr. (Duvee). All have shown the ability to spot horses where they can win or hit the board, and their past Fair Grounds records deserve respect.​

In practical terms, combining positive jockey-trainer combinations (for example, Ortiz–Maker, Loveberry–Robertson, Murrill–Sharp, Curtis–Wong) with favorable pace and bias setups can help identify the day’s best value propositions.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

From a holistic standpoint, this card offers several opportunities to combine reliable chalk with well-identified value horses.

For multi-race wagers, the early double or Pick 3 can be constructed by singling Prince Day in race 1 for more aggressive players, then using Gypsan and Midnight Blaze as co-keys in race 2, and spreading in the challenging turf route in race 3 with Southscape, Same Play, and Single Shot as A-level inclusions. More conservative bettors may want to include Tonka Trouble as a backup in race 1 and Roll Gypsy Roll in race 2.​

The middle sequence (races 3–6) features two tough turf or juvenile races and the Magic City Classic. Value-oriented players could treat Southscape and Same Play as co-top choices in race 3, lean lightly on Our Standard and Azteca Storm in the tricky two-year-old maiden in race 4, and then spread in the turf sprint in race 5 around Bayou Bertie, Baby Kristen, and Rambert. In race 6, Liken It and Jovie G are logical A-level plays, with Wabash as a B-level backup.​

In the late double or Pick 3 (races 6–8), anchoring with Liken It or Jovie G in race 6, then taking a price-friendly shot in the wide-open turf mile of race 7 using Brit’s Wit, Deccan Prince, and Bizzee Channel as primary inclusions and Towering Storm or Even the Wind as underneath or backup plays, sets up a strong structure. The finale can then be attacked with Island Cabana and Duvee as co-keys, plus Contraband Early or Midnight Halo as small-insurance inclusions.​

As for specific value plays:

Southscape in race 3 offers a strong combination of style, inside-to-middle draw, and turf-route track profile, and may be a better value than Same Play if they are bet similarly.​
Rambert in race 5 looks like a live mid-priced stalker in a race full of speed and deserves win and exacta consideration with Bayou Bertie and Baby Kristen.​
Bizzee Channel in race 7, despite a wide draw, brings back-class and a powerful speed rating profile; if the market overreacts to his post, he could be an overlay compared to inner-drawn speed like Brit’s Wit.
Contraband Early and Midnight Halo in race 8 are the two most plausible upsetters to the Island Cabana–Duvee pairing and can juice up trifectas if used underneath.​

Overall, the most efficient approach is to anchor multi-race bets around the strongest chalks (Prince Day, Gypsan/Midnight Blaze, Liken It/Jovie G, Island Cabana/Duvee) while targeting value-oriented singles or strong opinions in one or two of the deep turf races (especially races 3, 5, and 7).