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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.
Fair Grounds hosts a nine-race card on Friday, November 21, 2025, featuring varied claiming, maiden, and stakes events for both fillies/mares and colts/geldings across dirt and turf surfaces. Weather impacts and recent bias trends make track condition a focal point for handicappers. The feature is the Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial Stakes, a $100,000 event for Louisiana-bred 2-year-old fillies.
Weather and Track Conditions
Today’s forecast in New Orleans calls for partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures (highs in the upper 60s°F), with minimal risk of precipitation through the afternoon. Both dirt and turf surfaces are rated fast/firm; management currently expects to remain on the turf for scheduled races barring late weather changes.
Track/Post Position Bias
Recent Fair Grounds meet data indicates a mild speed bias, especially in dirt sprint events at 6 furlongs, with horses drawing inside posts (1-3) showing above-average win percentages. Turf routes over a mile reveal minimal bias, though tactical speed remains advantageous on firmer ground.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Colby Hernandez, Mitchell Murrill, and Marcelino Pedroza Jr. remain consistent, crafting winning trips for mid-contending claimers and stakes runners. C.J. McMahon and Paco Lopez have been sharp at Fair Grounds, especially with live mounts in maiden special and turf races. Axel Concepcion, a rising apprentice, is strong on speed types breaking from inside posts.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Samuel Breaux and J Keith Desormeaux excel with Louisiana-bred 2-year-olds in stakes and maiden events, while Shane Wilson and Jervon Broussard consistently place well-meant claimers. Robertino Diodoro, Jonathan Wong, and Mike Stidham are dangerous on turf with well-bred runners. Thomas Amoss and Albert Stall Jr. win reliably with first-time starters and second-off-the-layoff types.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Early races present moderate favorites; bias and field sizes produce fair opportunities for exotics on dirt sprints. Value may be present in turf races and full maiden special weights later in the card, where post draw and fitness are crucial.
1st Race – Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt (F&M)
Post Time
12:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
With several confirmed speed types (Mamba Out, Ruby the Destroyer, Rumpus), a contested early pace is expected, favoring stalkers and closers in the lane.
Key Contenders
Mamba Out rates as the clear pace presence, capable front-running but vulnerable late versus drop-down claimers. Rumpus typically prompts or presses and profiles as a tough trip horse with steady Louisiana form.
Secondary Choices
Eagle Express and Honor His Half give solid tactical responses off the pace, running consistently against similar fields. No Cost, with Erica Murray riding, retains upside on a class drop and can rally if the speed collapses.
Longshots
Sharper Gal possesses an outside chance to grab a share if the field falls apart late.
Selections
Win: Mamba Out
Place: Rumpus
Show: Eagle Express
2nd Race – Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt (LA Bred)
Post Time
1:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
Catalina Day and Scootieria likely duel for the lead, with Tonteria and Munnings Catsle ready to stalk. These conditions suit a closer if the early fractions are sharp.
Key Contenders
Catalina Day and Scooteria offer the best early speed and form cycle. Munnings Catsle gets added consideration with Mitchell Murrill aboard, comfortable going second or third early.
Secondary Choices
Oak Hill Lg and Tonteria have shown reliable form versus similar claimers and are logical for underneath positions.
Longshots
Bet On Bobby brings outsider appeal with pace-holding ability if others fade.
Selections
Win: Catalina Day
Place: Munnings Catsle
Show: Scooteria
3rd Race – Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt (F&M)
Post Time
1:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
Miss Kennedy and Bella Carmelina figure to contest the lead for the mile, while Gypsan and Certified Gem offer closing kicks.
Key Contenders
Bella Carmelina (Pedroza Jr.) and Miss Kennedy bring strong, recent showings at the level. Lily’s Creed with Mitchell Murrill could press and pounce given the likely pace scenario.
Secondary Choices
Gypsan and Roll Gypsy Roll warrant exotics play off consistent past performances.
Longshots
Talksalot has some upside with C.J. McMahon but needs improvement on figures to factor .
Selections
Win: Bella Carmelina
Place: Miss Kennedy
Show: Lily’s Creed
4th Race – Claiming, 1 Mile Turf
Post Time
2:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
Mailman Money projects as a lone speed threat if left alone, while Gorilla Trek, Deccan Prince, and Pico d’Oro stalk and bid late. A lone front-runner could be dangerous here.
Key Contenders
Deccan Prince shows solid underside turf form and gets Isaac Castillo, while Gorilla Trek and Skipper’s Pride can rally from mid-pack.
Secondary Choices
Mailman Money, Heat Lightning, and Hawks Creek appeal to trifecta and superfecta players via steady form and race placement.
Longshots
Now and Later, Justice Once, and Pico d’Oro have outside chances with a fast early pace.
Selections
Win: Deccan Prince
Place: Gorilla Trek
Show: Skipper’s Pride
5th Race – Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile 70Y Dirt
Post Time
2:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
Penei and El Maximo stand out for early pace, with Gold Gunner ready to pressure. Closer looks to Prince Day and Texas Splurge if ground-saving trips emerge.
Key Contenders
El Maximo, with James Graham, and Prince Day with Loveberry, draw top maiden figures and class. Penei (Keith Desormeaux-trained) could run well out of the box.
Secondary Choices
Gold Gunner and Titanium Man likely factor into minor awards, especially if speed falters.
Longshots
Max S and Texas Splurge have outside chances to surprise on the stretch-out.
Selections
Win: El Maximo
Place: Prince Day
Show: Gold Gunner
6th Race – Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf (F&M)
Post Time
3:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
Rosie’s Angus and April’s Gem likely set the early fractions, with Desert Glow and Im Singled Up in stalking spots. Larger field increases the chance of a swift early tempo.
Key Contenders
April’s Gem and Rosie’s Angus present as logical choices with fair recent form, while Im Singled Up gets Ben Curtis for a live trip in a deep field.
Secondary Choices
Blueberry Eyes and Xcaret offer good options for exotics off solid recent finishes and class.
Longshots
Rock Star Doctor and Midnight Blaze deserve a look underneath due to improved recent efforts at longer odds.
Selections
Win: April’s Gem
Place: Im Singled Up
Show: Rosie’s Angus
7th Race – Stakes, Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
3:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
El Sunshine, Summers With Sonya, and Liteupthenite likely vie for early control, with a few stalkers able to challenge late if fractions are aggressive.
Key Contenders
El Sunshine fits strongly in stakes class with Axel Concepcion up. Summers With Sonya and On the Horizon (Mitchell Murrill) profile as major players given trainer stats and juvenile form cycles.
Secondary Choices
Little Miss Curlin and Wickedwithbourbon have upside for exotics, with competitive debut form and pedigree influence.
Longshots
Swampy and Allons Betta Lee warrant attention if the race becomes chaotic up front.
Selections
Win: El Sunshine
Place: Summers With Sonya
Show: On the Horizon
8th Race – Maiden Special Weight, 5.5 Furlongs Turf (2YO Fillies)
Post Time
4:15PM CST
Pace Analysis
Hidden Map and Fregata look to fire early, but Acquazurra, More Sweeter, and Nelson’s Penny are bred for late surges. Expect fast early fractions in a large maiden field.
Key Contenders
Acquazurra and Hidden Map profile best with tactical speed and live trainer-jockey connections. More Sweeter, trained by Brendan Walsh, could step forward with turf pedigree.
Secondary Choices
Nelson’s Penny and Fregata offer logical second-tier choices, especially for multi-race wagers.
Longshots
My Blue Line and Lady Blast can factor for minor awards given field size and turf opportunities.
Selections
Win: Acquazurra
Place: Hidden Map
Show: More Sweeter
9th Race – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt (LA Bred)
Post Time
4:45PM CST
Pace Analysis
My Man Brandon, Romeo Spikes, and Rescue Squad project to be forward early, with Cajun Moviestar and Free Scrim set to close. Watch for first-timers and shippers with speed.
Key Contenders
My Man Brandon, shot from the rail for Ben Curtis, and Rescue Squad draw top picks on figures and connections. Free Scrim stands out for closing capability and trainer stats.
Secondary Choices
Mister Banderas and Bob’s Channel are logical for minor awards, especially if trip dynamics favor mid-pack finishes.
Longshots
Romeo Spikes and Shot Gun Shack have longshot upside with improving recent races.
Selections
Win: My Man Brandon
Place: Rescue Squad
Show: Free Scrim
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Early multi-race sequences offer playable favorites with reliable speed types in sprints; consider doubling or tripling tickets with closers in turf and two-year-old maiden races for more value. Trifectas and superfectas in maiden special weights and large turf fields are worth targeting for overlays, as field size should inflate payouts. Target win bets on horses with class drops and improving connections.
All selections and recommendations are based on official entries and recent bias and trainer/jockey form cycles.
