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Welcome to today’s card at Oldsmar. We have a competitive eight-race sequence on tap for this Thursday afternoon. The card features a mix of claiming sprints, route races on the main track, and some intriguing turf contests (pending weather).
My analysis today focuses heavily on “connections” logic—identifying the trainer/jockey combinations that historically dominate the Tampa oval (Bennett, Arnett, O’Connell) and spotting significant class drops. We have several horses dropping from Allowance or Stakes company into claimers today, which often signals a “win now” intent from the barn.
Below is the race-by-race breakdown, followed by the Consensus Picks section at the very end.
1st Race: Claiming $5,000 (1 Mile 40 Yards, Dirt)
Analysis: We kick off the day with a route for the older guys at the rock-bottom $5,000 claiming level. In these events, current form and “back class” are usually the deciding factors.
#5 Lucky Curlin (9/2) looks like the horse to beat here. He enters for trainer Benny Feliciano, who does a good job spotting his horses where they can win. The booking of Samy Camacho is the key indicator here; Camacho battles for the riding title every year here and rarely takes a mount in the opener unless it’s “live.” This 9-year-old veteran has seen it all and should sit a nice trip just off the pace.
#4 Funkenstein (3/1) is the primary danger. Trained by Arthur Agostini, who has a high strike rate with claimers at this distance. Funkenstein has tactical speed, which is crucial at the 1 mile 40-yard distance where the run to the first turn is relatively short. If he clears early, he could be tough to catch.
#1 Supreme Song (5/2) draws the rail for Jeffrey Englehart. The rail is an advantage at this distance, saving ground on both turns. Englehart’s barn has been consistent this meet. Look for Pablo Morales to try to save ground and make one run.
#7 Major King is an interesting case. The Scratch Watch notes indicate he scratched out of Gulfstream twice and Tampa once recently (Vet scratch). This is a red flag regarding his soundness, but if he runs, he fits on ability. However, the risk is too high to put him on top.
Selections:
Win: LUCKY CURLIN (5) – 35% confidence
Place: FUNKENSTEIN (4) – 25% confidence
Show: SUPREME SONG (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: SARGEANT BARGER (2) – 10% confidence
2nd Race: Claiming $6,250 (6 Furlongs, Dirt)
Analysis: A sprint for fillies and mares. This race features a standout trainer angle.
#1 Bayou Melody (2/1) is trained by Kathleen O’Connell, the all-time leading trainer at Tampa Bay Downs (and recently the Midwest). When “K.O.” drops a horse into a conditioned claimer like this and draws the rail, it demands respect. Chris Landeros takes the mount. The rail draw in a 6-furlong sprint allows her to dictate the terms or sit the pocket trip. She looks like the class of the field.
#6 Allons (5/2) gets the services of Samy Camacho for trainer Jose Gallegos. This mare has shown flashes of speed and should be pressing the pace from the outside. The outside draw is favorable here, keeping her out of traffic trouble in the early stages.
#5 Thee New Beginning (4/1) represents the Reynaldo Yanez barn with Samuel Marin up. Marin is an aggressive gate rider. If the top two get into a speed duel, this one could pick up the pieces, though she likely needs a pace collapse to win.
#4 Mt. d’Oro drops in for Mike Simone. Simone’s barn heats up as the meet goes on. Sonny Leon rides; he is excellent at getting longshots to outrun their odds.
Selections:
Win: BAYOU MELODY (1) – 40% confidence
Place: ALLONS (6) – 30% confidence
Show: THEE NEW BEGINNING (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: MT. D’ORO (4) – 10% confidence
3rd Race: Starter Optional Claiming $12,500 (5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)
Analysis: This is one of the higher-quality dirt races on the card.
#4 Secret Empire (9/5) is the clear standout. Trained by the powerhouse Gerald Bennett—the king of Tampa Bay Downs—and ridden by Samy Camacho. This horse was entered in an Allowance Optional Claiming $56k event on Jan 10 (per scratch watch) and scratched. Showing up here in a Starter/Optional Claiming spot is a massive relief in class. While the drop can sometimes be suspicious, with Bennett, it usually just means he found a spot to guarantee a win. If he runs to his back class, he wins for fun.
#3 Johnnyfrenchfri (5/2) comes from the Jon Arnett barn, which is arguably the second strongest stable on the grounds. Arnett is a master at the claiming game. This horse has speed and will likely try to keep Secret Empire honest.
#5 Protege (6/1) for Jose Delgado is a dangerous closer if the pace melts down. Delgado’s horses often improve significantly in their second or third start off a layoff.
#7 Guapo Again (ARG) is a wild card from Juan Carlos Avila’s barn. South American imports can be tricky, but they often handle dirt tracks like Tampa (which can be deep and sandy) very well.
Selections:
Win: SECRET EMPIRE (4) – 55% confidence
Place: JOHNNYFRENCHFRI (3) – 20% confidence
Show: PROTEGE (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: GUAPO AGAIN (7) – 5% confidence
4th Race: Maiden Claiming $16,000 (1 Mile, Turf)
Analysis: We move to the turf for a Maiden Claiming route. These races can be chaotic, so look for “professional” connections.
#5 Future Blues (3/1) gets the nod. He is ridden by Daniel Centeno, who has won countless turf titles at Tampa. Centeno is a patient rider who knows exactly when to move on this course. Trainer Ed Maher doesn’t send them out unless they are ready. At this low level, a professional ride often makes the difference between winning and getting stuck in traffic.
#3 Rons Legacy (7/2) hails from the Gregg Sacco barn. Sacco is a highly respected Monmouth Park regular who winters well here. Samuel Marin rides. This horse should be forwardly placed.
#6 Shoo In (4/1) is trained by Michael Yates. Yates is known for his work with young horses (often Florida-breds). Siggy Golibrzuch is a capable journeyman who rides well for this barn.
#1 Leonidas Stand (8/1) is an interesting longshot for Jeffrey Englehart. The rail on the turf course at 1 mile is a huge advantage because the first turn comes up fast. If he breaks well, he saves all the ground.
Selections:
Win: FUTURE BLUES (5) – 28% confidence
Place: RONS LEGACY (3) – 25% confidence
Show: SHOO IN (6) – 15% confidence
Alternative: LEONIDAS STAND (1) – 10% confidence
5th Race: Claiming $10,000 (6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)
Analysis: A competitive sprint for the ladies.
#6 Classic Ballad (5/2) is another Bennett/Centeno production. When Gerald Bennett legs up Daniel Centeno on a dirt sprinter, you bet it. This mare fits this class level perfectly. The 6 1/2 furlong distance allows Centeno to stalk the pace and pounce late.
#4 Ship It (3/1) is the Jon Arnett entry, ridden by Samy Camacho. We have a classic “Bennett vs. Arnett” showdown here. Camacho will likely send this horse hard from the gate. If she gets loose on the lead, she might not look back.
#2 Divine Romance (9/2) for Michael Simone is the “picker-upper.” If the top two kill each other on the front end, she will be the beneficiary. Samuel Marin is a strong finisher.
#1 Eros’s Girl (6/1) draws the rail for M. Anthony Ferraro. She will need to commit to the lead from the inside; otherwise, she risks getting shuffled back.
Selections:
Win: CLASSIC BALLAD (6) – 35% confidence
Place: SHIP IT (4) – 30% confidence
Show: DIVINE ROMANCE (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: EROS’S GIRL (1) – 10% confidence
6th Race: Maiden Claiming $32,000 (1 Mile, Turf)
Analysis: This is a step up in class from the 4th race. A higher-level maiden claimer often features horses that have tried Maiden Special Weight company and failed.
#3 Getaholdayourself (7/2) for James Gulick. Sonny Leon rides. This horse has shown steady improvement and seems suited for the turf mile.
#9 Beautiful Emma (3/1) has a tough post (9), but gets Daniel Centeno. As mentioned earlier, Centeno is the “Turf Master” here. If anyone can navigate a wide draw on the grass, it’s him. Trainer Gerard Ochoa has been sending out live runners lately.
#5 She’s Lit (4/1) is trained by Joe Orseno. Orseno is a veteran Grade 1 winning trainer who knows how to spot horses in Florida. Samuel Marin is aboard.
#7 April Spun (5/1) is the K.O. (Kathleen O’Connell) entry. She is dangerous first time on the grass or dropping down.
Selections:
Win: BEAUTIFUL EMMA (9) – 25% confidence
Place: GETAHOLDAYOURSELF (3) – 22% confidence
Show: SHE’S LIT (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: APRIL SPUN (7) – 15% confidence
7th Race: Claiming $20,000 (6 Furlongs, Dirt)
Analysis: This race features the most intriguing entry of the day.
#8 Fly Life (8/5). Look at the Scratch Watch: this filly was scratched from the Suncoast Stakes (a Kentucky Oaks prep race) on Feb 7. Now, five days later, she shows up in a $20,000 claimer. This is the definition of an aggressive drop. Trainer Gerald Bennett is practically giving the horse away if someone claims her, but he is also practically guaranteeing a purse check. With Samy Camacho aboard and the outside post, she should demolish this field on class alone unless there is a hidden physical issue. We trust the Bennett/Camacho machine here.
#7 Chapita (3/1) is trained by Jose Francisco D’Angelo (“The Magician”). D’Angelo has an incredible win percentage with shippers and claimers. Sonny Leon rides. If Fly Life isn’t right, Chapita is the winner.
#1 Prancin Inthe Dark (9/2) is the Arnett entry. The rail is tough for a young horse if they don’t break sharp, but Arnett horses usually have gate speed.
Selections:
Win: FLY LIFE (8) – 60% confidence
Place: CHAPITA (7) – 20% confidence
Show: PRANCIN INTHE DARK (1) – 10% confidence
Alternative: CHARMING JENNIE (2) – 5% confidence
8th Race: Claiming $16,000 (1 1/8 Miles, Turf)
Analysis: The finale is a 9-furlong marathon on the grass.
#3 Perky (5/2). The trainer is listed as Miguel Clement. This is the Christophe Clement operation (one of the best turf barns in America). When Clement sends horses to Tampa, they are usually superior to the local stock. Samuel Marin gets the call. At 1 1/8 miles, pedigree and conditioning are everything, and Clement excels here.
#5 Sea Shanty (3/1) is the Gerald Bennett turf entry with Camacho. You simply cannot ignore this team today. They will be betting favorites, but Perky likely has more upside.
#1 Summer Flower (4/1) for Mike Dini. Dini is a very crafty trainer on the turf, especially with distance horses. From the rail, Sonny Leon can save every inch of ground.
#13 Bravo Kitten is on the Also-Eligible list/far outside. If she gets in (and scratches allow her to move inside), she is a player for Darien Rodriguez, who has a high ROI at this track.
Selections:
Win: PERKY (3) – 35% confidence
Place: SEA SHANTY (5) – 30% confidence
Show: SUMMER FLOWER (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: BRAVO KITTEN (13) – 10% confidence
Consensus Picks
Here is a summary of the top selections for each race, grouped for quick reference.
Win: LUCKY CURLIN (5) – 35% confidence
Place: FUNKENSTEIN (4) – 25% confidence
Show: SUPREME SONG (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: SARGEANT BARGER (2) – 10% confidence
Win: BAYOU MELODY (1) – 40% confidence
Place: ALLONS (6) – 30% confidence
Show: THEE NEW BEGINNING (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: MT. D’ORO (4) – 10% confidence
Win: SECRET EMPIRE (4) – 55% confidence
Place: JOHNNYFRENCHFRI (3) – 20% confidence
Show: PROTEGE (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: GUAPO AGAIN (7) – 5% confidence
Win: FUTURE BLUES (5) – 28% confidence
Place: RONS LEGACY (3) – 25% confidence
Show: SHOO IN (6) – 15% confidence
Alternative: LEONIDAS STAND (1) – 10% confidence
Win: CLASSIC BALLAD (6) – 35% confidence
Place: SHIP IT (4) – 30% confidence
Show: DIVINE ROMANCE (2) – 15% confidence
Alternative: EROS’S GIRL (1) – 10% confidence
Win: BEAUTIFUL EMMA (9) – 25% confidence
Place: GETAHOLDAYOURSELF (3) – 22% confidence
Show: SHE’S LIT (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: APRIL SPUN (7) – 15% confidence
Win: FLY LIFE (8) – 60% confidence
Place: CHAPITA (7) – 20% confidence
Show: PRANCIN INTHE DARK (1) – 10% confidence
Alternative: CHARMING JENNIE (2) – 5% confidence
Win: PERKY (3) – 35% confidence
Place: SEA SHANTY (5) – 30% confidence
Show: SUMMER FLOWER (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: BRAVO KITTEN (13) – 10% confidence
