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Welcome to Fair Grounds for a Thursday afternoon card featuring nine races. The program includes a mix of claiming sprints on the dirt and route races on the turf, highlighted by a competitive allowance contest in the eighth race. The card offers several opportunities for value, particularly in the maiden claiming events where field sizes are robust. Horseplayers should note the rail placement on the turf course, which is set at 28 feet, potentially tightening the turns and favoring horses with tactical speed who can save ground. The claiming claiming ranks today are filled with veterans, making current form and trainer intent critical factors in handicapping these events.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for New Orleans today calls for partly cloudy skies with a high near 62 degrees. Humidity is expected to be moderate. Given the recent weather patterns in the region, we expect the main track to be listed as Fast. The turf course, with the rail out at 28 feet, should be Firm. The portable rail setting often protects the inner part of the course, but at this setting, it can sometimes favor speed horses who can get to the front and control the pace, as making up ground from very wide positions on the turns becomes more difficult.
Track and Post Position Bias
On the main dirt track at six furlongs, inside posts have traditionally performed well, but the rail itself can sometimes be deep. Watch the early races to see if horses are winning from the rail or if they are staying two to three paths off. Speed is generally an asset on this surface.
For the turf routes at one mile and one-sixteenth miles with the rail at 28 feet, inside draws are advantageous. Horses starting from the far outside posts in large fields often face a significant disadvantage going into the first turn. A ground-saving trip is essential today. Closers will need a swift pace to run at, which may be lacking in some of the lower-level claiming races on the grass.
Race 1
Post Time
12:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
In this six-furlong sprint for claiming non-winners of three, the pace looks to be moderate. Tap the Tequila breaking from the rail has shown flashes of early foot and will likely be sent to secure position. Hawija also possesses tactical speed and should be sitting close to the pace. There is no confirmed scorched-earth speed in this lineup, which gives the advantage to horses that can press the pace and get the jump on the deep closers.
Key Contenders
Hawija looks to be the horse to beat in the opener. Trained by W. Bret Calhoun, this four-year-old gelding drops into a conditioned claiming spot that fits his class level perfectly. He has faced tougher company in the past and the move to this level signals intent. The addition of Axel Concepcion in the irons is a positive sign, and his tactical style suits the projected race flow.
Tap the Tequila is a logical threat from the inside post. Trainer Scott Gelner has him spotted aggressively. If he breaks clean, he could find himself on the lead by default. His recent form suggests he is sitting on a better effort, and at this low claiming level, speed from the rail is always dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Crigler, ridden by Paco Lopez, adds a significant jockey upgrade. Lopez is known for his aggressive gate riding, which could put Crigler into the mix earlier than expected. While his recent form charts are mixed, the jockey change alone warrants respect in the betting pools.
Longshots
Josan is a seven-year-old veteran who has seen better days, but in a field of non-winners of three, experience counts. If the pace collapses, which seems unlikely but possible if Tap the Tequila and Hawija duel, Josan could pick up the pieces at a price.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Hawija as the primary key. A straight win bet is the solid play here. For exotics, key Hawija over Tap the Tequila and Crigler in exactas.
Race 2
Post Time
01:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
This claiming sprint for fillies and mares features more early speed than the first race. Slushy and Chaparrita both like to be forwardly placed. Zoom Erin also has early foot. This competitive pace scenario sets up well for a stalker who can sit just behind the lead trio and pounce at the top of the lane.
Key Contenders
Chaparrita is a strong contender for the win. Coming out of the Jervon Broussard barn with Sofia Vives aboard, this mare has the speed to clear the field if she breaks sharply. Her recent works have been steady, and she fits well with this group of restricted claimers.
Slushy draws the services of Isaac Castillo and trainer Tanner Tracy. This seven-year-old mare is consistent and rarely runs a bad race at this level. She will likely be involved from the start and has the stamina to hold off challengers in the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Zoom Erin is the other Broussard runner in the field, ridden by Paco Lopez. Having two horses from the same barn often provides options, and Lopez’s presence suggests this one is “live.” She may sit the perfect trip behind her stablemate and Slushy.
Longshots
All About Me breaks from the rail. If the speed horses get caught in a duel, she could sneak up the rail for a share of the purse. She will need a pace meltdown to win but can hit the board at a price.
Betting Strategy
This race feels like a battle between the Broussard entrymates and Slushy. An exacta box of Chaparrita, Slushy, and Zoom Erin covers the most likely scenarios.
Race 3
Post Time
01:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Sir Liam and Sir Pistolero are the primary speed influences in this claiming event. Sir Liam, from the Calhoun barn, will likely try to control the race from the start. Highstakes Hustler may also show interest early. The pace should be honest, giving every runner a fair chance.
Key Contenders
Sir Liam is the class of the field. W. Bret Calhoun drops him into a winnable spot, and Colby Hernandez takes the mount. He has back class that the others lack and should be able to dictate terms or sit a comfortable second.
Sir Pistolero is the main danger. Isaac Castillo rides for Tanner Tracy. This gelding has been knocking on the door and seems poised for a breakthrough. His speed figures are competitive with the top selection.
Secondary Choices
Our Pact has been inconsistent but shows flashes of ability. With Paco Lopez aboard, expect a more aggressive ride today. He could be the spoiler if the top two falter.
Longshots
Dr. Niko is a four-year-old who could improve in this spot. At likely double-digit odds, he is worth including in the bottom of trifectas and superfectas.
Betting Strategy
Sir Liam looks like one of the safer singles on the card. Play him to win and key him in the first leg of any Pick 3 or Pick 4 wagers.
Race 4
Post Time
02:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
This maiden claiming turf mile features several young horses stretching out or trying turf for the first time. Skip Forward and Haulin Oats look to be the ones who will establish position early. With the rail out, expect the pace to be slow to moderate, which favors those near the front.
Key Contenders
Skip Forward (JPN) is an intriguing entry from the Joe Sharp barn. Jose Ortiz takes the mount, which is a high-percentage move. Sharp does very well with turf runners, and this horse’s pedigree suggests he will handle the grass.
Matching Funds, trained by Chris Block with Jareth Loveberry riding, is another major player. Block is excellent with turf routers, and Loveberry is a patient rider who fits this horse well.
Secondary Choices
Haulin Oats represents the Brittany Russell barn. Mitchell Murrill rides. This horse has shown steady improvement and finds a soft spot to break his maiden.
Longshots
Brockton could be a factor at a price. Trained by Keri Brion, a specialist in turf and jump racing, this horse might take a big step forward on the grass.
Betting Strategy
Turf maiden claimers can be chaotic. A small win bet on Skip Forward is warranted, but spread deep in multi-race wagers.
Race 5
Post Time
02:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
Clearly Majestic and Custom Ride look to be the speed in this Louisiana-bred claiming sprint. It is a small field, so the start is crucial. If Clearly Majestic breaks well, he could wire the field.
Key Contenders
Clearly Majestic is the one to catch. Paco Lopez riding for Shane Wilson is a deadly combination at Fair Grounds. The horse drops in class and has the speed to dominate this group.
Custom Ride is the logical alternative. He carries top weight but has the form to handle it. Sofia Vives will likely keep him in close attendance to the leader.
Secondary Choices
Yorktown Panther could pick up the pieces if the top two engage in a suicide pace. Ben Curtis is a strong finishing rider.
Longshots
Deal of Faith has outside speed potential but will need a career-best effort to upset the top pair.
Betting Strategy
Clearly Majestic is a likely favorite and a potential single. An exacta straight of Clearly Majestic over Custom Ride is the play.
Race 6
Post Time
03:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
In this maiden optional claiming turf route, Syntagma and Prince of Light are expected to attract the most money. The pace should be honest as several of these young horses have sprint speed in their pedigrees.
Key Contenders
Syntagma is the heavy favorite. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Marcelino Pedroza Jr., this horse has been working well and finds a field that lacks depth. Cox’s win percentage in these spots is formidable.
Prince of Light runs for Brendan Walsh with Jose Ortiz. This is a dangerous combination. The horse has shown promise in the mornings and should be competitive.
Secondary Choices
Starmetal, trained by Neil Pessin, is a sneaky contender. Pessin often pops with turf horses at nice prices.
Longshots
Ogilvy (IRE) adds international flavor. Trained by Whitworth Beckman, this import could be anything. Watch the tote board for clues.
Betting Strategy
Syntagma will likely be a short price. Try to beat the favorite with Prince of Light for value, or key Syntagma with Starmetal in exactas.
Race 7
Post Time
03:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A maiden claiming sprint with a full field. Key Man and Emancipation should vie for the early lead. The pace will be fast, setting it up for a closer.
Key Contenders
King of the Isles (IRE) is a fascinating entry for Kenny McPeek. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides. The drop into maiden claiming suggests the connections want to get a win. The Irish breeding is interesting for dirt, but the class drop is the key factor.
Emancipation runs for Wayne Catalano and Jose Ortiz. This horse has speed and should be involved throughout.
Secondary Choices
Brock’s Boy has had some veterinary issues (scratched recently) but fits on speed figures if healthy. Paco Lopez riding is a plus.
Longshots
Standard Deduction could be running late. Jareth Loveberry is great at timing rides on closers.
Betting Strategy
This is a wide-open race. Box the top three selections in exactas and trifectas.
Race 8
Post Time
04:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
The feature race is an allowance on the turf. Contribution and Drilling for Gold should be forwardly placed. Unleash the Power has a strong closing kick. The pace should be legitimate, giving everyone a chance.
Key Contenders
Contribution is the top selection. Brad Cox and Jose Ortiz team up again. This four-year-old has significant upside and faces a field of exposed runners.
Drilling for Gold is consistent and tough. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides for Brittany Russell. He will be right there at the wire.
Secondary Choices
Unleash the Power is a veteran who knows how to win. Al Stall Jr. has him ready, and he will be flying late.
Longshots
Faber, with Paco Lopez, could steal it if allowed to set a slow pace alone on the front end, though that scenario is unlikely given the other speed.
Betting Strategy
Contribution is the class of the race. Bet him to win. Use Unleash the Power in the second spot for exactas.
Race 9
Post Time
04:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a claiming mile on the dirt. Grand Encore and Sir Mack have speed. Ashes in the Ocean will be stalking.
Key Contenders
Grand Encore looks best here. Paco Lopez rides for Sherman Savoie. He should be able to clear the field and save ground.
Ashes in the Ocean is the main threat. Colby Hernandez rides. He fits well at this level and distance.
Secondary Choices
Sir Mack is a consistent check-earner. He should hit the board.
Longshots
Name the Time could improve with C.J. McMahon aboard.
Betting Strategy
Grand Encore to close out the card.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Paco Lopez has a loaded book today. He is riding live mounts in almost every race, including Crigler (R1), Zoom Erin (R2), Clearly Majestic (R5), and Grand Encore (R9). His aggressive style plays well on the Fair Grounds dirt. Jose Ortiz is also well-mounted, particularly on the turf with Skip Forward (R4), Prince of Light (R6), and Contribution (R8). When Ortiz and Cox team up, it is a high-percentage angle.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox sends out two heavy hitters in Syntagma (R6) and Contribution (R8). Both look ready to win. W. Bret Calhoun has his stable ready for the early races with Hawija (R1) and Sir Liam (R3). Brittany Russell ships in with contenders in Haulin Oats (R4) and Drilling for Gold (R8), signaling she means business. Watch for the barn of Shane Wilson in the 5th race; Clearly Majestic looks like a targeted drop.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best bet of the day comes in Race 8 with Contribution. He appears to have a class edge over the field. For value, look to Race 6 and Prince of Light, who might get overlooked in the betting due to the presence of the Cox favorite. The Pick 5 sequence starting in Race 5 is approachable, with likely singles in Race 5 (Clearly Majestic) and Race 8 (Contribution).
Consensus Selections
Race 1
Win: Hawija (2) – 35% confidence
Place: Tap the Tequila (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Crigler (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Josan (4) – 10% confidence
Race 2
Win: Chaparrita (8) – 30% confidence
Place: Slushy (5) – 25% confidence
Show: Zoom Erin (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: All About Me (1) – 10% confidence
Race 3
Win: Sir Liam (4) – 40% confidence
Place: Sir Pistolero (6) – 25% confidence
Show: Our Pact (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Dr. Niko (8) – 10% confidence
Race 4
Win: Skip Forward (6) – 28% confidence
Place: Matching Funds (3) – 22% confidence
Show: Haulin Oats (4) – 18% confidence
Alternative: Brockton (2) – 12% confidence
Race 5
Win: Clearly Majestic (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Custom Ride (2) – 25% confidence
Show: Yorktown Panther (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Deal of Faith (8) – 5% confidence
Race 6
Win: Syntagma (6) – 38% confidence
Place: Prince of Light (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Starmetal (4) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Ogilvy (7) – 10% confidence
Race 7
Win: King of the Isles (8) – 28% confidence
Place: Emancipation (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Brock’s Boy (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Standard Deduction (6) – 12% confidence
Race 8
Win: Contribution (2) – 35% confidence
Place: Drilling for Gold (10) – 25% confidence
Show: Unleash the Power (6) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Faber (8) – 10% confidence
Race 9
Win: Grand Encore (4) – 32% confidence
Place: Ashes in the Ocean (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Sir Mack (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Name the Time (7) – 10% confidence
