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Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans presents an 8-race card today with first post at 12:45 PM CST. The card features a diverse mix of conditions ranging from a $54,000 Maiden Special Weight on the turf (Race 1) and a $56,000 Allowance Optional Claiming turf event (Race 7) to claiming races on the dirt. A $30,000 Starter Allowance route on dirt (Race 6) anchors the middle of the card, and the day wraps with a $15,000 Louisiana-bred claimer sprint (Race 8).
Several horses appear on the scratch watch. Clearly Colossal (PP 11, Race 1) and Jus Surprise Me (PP 1, Race 1) are listed as off-turf scratch candidates, as is Lil Henry (PP 5, Race 1) who drew as an also-eligible. Calling On Heaven (PP 7, Race 2) is listed for a veterinarian scratch. Spite Lite (PP 5, Race 3) was flagged by the stewards. Lulu’s Magic (PP 8, Race 3) was scratched from a Delta Downs start earlier this week. In Race 5, Im Singled Up (PP 9) has a veterinarian scratch concern. Race 6 has three horses on the watch: Face the Future (PP 7, veterinarian), Fountain Run (PP 2, trainer), and Interlock Empire (PP 4, main-track-only). Coffee County (PP 5, Race 7) and Unified Report (PP 4, Race 7) are listed as also-eligibles. Race 8 has Catalina Day (PP 1) and Speightful One (PP 3) flagged for veterinarian scratches. Monitor these closely before wagering.
The Pick 5 sequence begins in Race 1 and runs through Race 5, while a $0.50 Pick 3 covers Races 1 through 3. The daily double links Races 1 and 2.
Weather and Track Conditions
Today’s weather in New Orleans calls for sunny skies with a high near 59 degrees Fahrenheit and a low around 41 degrees. North winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will make conditions breezy and noticeably cooler following yesterday’s warm high of 85 degrees. There is zero chance of precipitation.
The significant temperature drop and gusty wind could impact the racing surface. The dirt track ran fast earlier in the week, and the dry forecast should maintain a fast main track throughout the afternoon. The turf course, with the rail set at 7 feet, should be in firm condition given the lack of recent heavy rain and the drying wind. With two turf races on the card (Races 1 and 7), firm ground and gusty breezes may favor horses that race close to the pace and along the inside, as headwinds in the stretch can blunt late rallies.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The Fair Grounds dirt track during the 2025-2026 meet has shown a clear and persistent bias toward early speed and inside posts in sprint races. Through mid-February, 30% of six-furlong dirt sprints were won wire-to-wire, and posts 1 through 3 have been winning 45% of those races. Forward-running horses dominate sprint events, making it extremely difficult for deep closers unless they encounter a pace collapse.
In dirt routes at a mile and longer, early speed also leads but with less dominance. Early runners have won approximately 42% of route races, with stalkers and closers splitting the remainder fairly evenly. Inside posts (1-3) still hold an advantage at around 50% winners in routes, though posts 4-6 are competitive at roughly 40%, largely because of smaller field sizes.
The turf course presents a starkly different story. Closers have been the dominant style in turf routes, winning an impressive 51% of races during the current meet. Early speed has struggled badly on the grass, winning only 14% of turf routes. This has been a consistent pattern for months. Handicappers should strongly favor late-running types in both turf events today. Previous turf winners at Fair Grounds tend to replicate that success due to the unique nature of the surface.
In turf sprints, stalkers have won 50% of races throughout the meet.
Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $54,000
Post Time
12:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
This is a 12-horse field of accredited Louisiana-bred maidens going a mile on the turf. Jus Surprise Me (PP 1) showed early speed in his last turf start and could establish position on the front end, while Metairie (PP 3) has shown forward tendencies as a fast stalker type. Victory Prince (PP 7) is the fastest stalker on paper and should sit just off the early leaders. With the turf course heavily favoring closers this meet (51% win rate), the pace setup should benefit those who can produce a late kick from mid-pack or further back. The large field size increases the probability of a contested pace, further enhancing the closers’ edge.
Key Contenders
Victory Prince (PP 7) — Morning line 4-1. This 4-year-old gelding makes his 10th start still seeking a maiden victory, but his recent form is promising. He posted a runner-up finish last out going a mile on the dirt at Fair Grounds and ran third in a 7.5-furlong turf sprint here prior to that. His fastest stalker running style is ideal for a turf route at this track, where stalkers and closers dominate. He gets the nod from algorithmic models as the top pick and draws endorsement from multiple handicappers.
Antiphon (PP 6) — Morning line 9/2. A 3-year-old colt trained by Shane Wilson with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons, which is the most potent jockey connection in the field. Ortiz has been the co-leading rider at Fair Grounds this season with a 27% win rate from 258 starts at the meet. Antiphon has four starts under his belt with a fourth-place finish going a mile on the turf here last out. His mid-pack stalking style fits the turf closer bias perfectly, and the Wilson-Ortiz combination demands respect.
Lil Central (PP 12) — Morning line 6-1. Ran fifth in his most recent start going a mile on dirt here but previously finished second going a mile on dirt at Fair Grounds and fourth in the 7.5-furlong turf sprint. His fast deep running style could be effective on the turf where closers thrive. The outside draw is a concern in a 12-horse field, but the closing-friendly turf bias mitigates the disadvantage somewhat.
Secondary Choices
Clearly Artemus (PP 2) — Morning line 6-1. Trained by Shane Wilson, this 3-year-old colt has shown some ability with a runner-up and a third from four career starts, including a third-place finish going a mile on dirt at Fair Grounds. He switches to turf today, which is an unknown, but his mid-pack style could be effective. The inside draw at post 2 is tactically useful on the turf.
Jus Surprise Me (PP 1) — Morning line 6-1. This horse showed early speed in his last turf start, leading before fading to fifth. On a turf course that punishes early speed, the early-leader style is a concern. However, he gets the rail draw and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. in the saddle. He is also on the scratch watch for off-turf conditions.
Longshots
Clearly Colossal (PP 11) — Morning line 12-1. A first-time starter on turf who debuted with a fifth-place finish sprinting 5 furlongs on the grass. There is limited data, but the Jonas Gibson barn has shown a 43% in-the-money rate. He is on the off-turf scratch watch.
Guitar Man (PP 8) — Morning line 20-1. Has experience on turf with two starts going 1 1/16 miles, finishing fifth both times. At long odds, he could sneak into the exotics at a price.
Betting Strategy
The turf closer bias makes this a playable race for exacta and trifecta boxes centered on Victory Prince (PP 7) with Antiphon (PP 6) and Lil Central (PP 12). Exacta box 7-6, 7-12, and 6-12 all provide logical combinations. For trifecta, a 6/7/12 box or 2/7/12 box adds Clearly Artemus underneath. If betting the Pick 5, use Victory Prince and Antiphon as primary options with Lil Central as a spread key.
Selections
Win: 7 Victory Prince
Place: 6 Antiphon
Show: 12 Lil Central
Race 2 — Maiden Claiming $30,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $22,000
Post Time
1:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A compact 7-horse field of maiden claimers sprinting six furlongs on the dirt. Gold Dollar (PP 1) could show some early foot from the rail, while Somekinda Mischief (PP 6) has been forwardly placed in recent outings. The pace scenario looks moderate, setting up for a horse with tactical speed that can press and take over in the stretch. Given the strong inside/speed bias in Fair Grounds dirt sprints, horses drawn inside with forward speed have a built-in advantage.
Key Contenders
Calling On Heaven (PP 7) — Morning line 9/5. This 4-year-old gelding by Instilled Regard steps down in class for trainer Michael Maker with Jose L. Ortiz aboard. He ran a promising third at Churchill Downs, has earned the highest figure in this field, and benefits from the class drop to the $30,000 claiming level. Maker is one of the most respected operations in North America, and Ortiz’s presence further validates the commitment. He drew the outside post in a small field, which is manageable. However, he is flagged on the scratch watch for a veterinarian issue — monitor this closely before wagering.
Sully (PP 4) — Morning line 2-1. A 6-year-old gelding trained by Peter Eurton, who has recently established a string at Fair Grounds. Sully has been knocking on the door, finishing second last out going six furlongs here on a fast track. He draws a favorable middle post that should allow him to secure early position without burning energy, fitting the speed bias well. If Calling On Heaven scratches, Sully becomes the clear horse to beat.
Somekinda Mischief (PP 6) — Morning line 5-1. Has placed in his last two starts and offers consistency at this level. He draws post 6 in a seven-horse field and should be able to stalk from a comfortable mid-pack position.
Secondary Choices
Tickle Me Unclemo (PP 2) — Morning line 8-1. A 5-year-old horse with inside post position, which is an advantage in Fair Grounds dirt sprints. At 8-1 odds, there is some value if he can secure a forward position from the inside draw.
Prince Ben (PP 3) — Morning line 8-1. Has shown some ability, finishing third twice and second once in recent starts. The inside draw at post 3 should help him race efficiently along the rail.
Longshots
Gold Dollar (PP 1) — Morning line 10-1. Gets the rail, which is statistically the best post in Fair Grounds dirt sprints. He has limited form but the post position alone warrants consideration as an exotic underneath horse at double-digit odds.
Betting Strategy
If Calling On Heaven runs, this is a potential single in multi-race wagers given his class edge and top jockey. If he scratches, Sully becomes the play. Exacta box 7-4 is the primary combination, with 4-6 and 6-3 as secondary options. For the Pick 5, Calling On Heaven (if confirmed) and Sully are the keys.
Selections
Win: 7 Calling On Heaven
Place: 4 Sully
Show: 6 Somekinda Mischief
Race 3 — Claiming $7,500, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $16,000
Post Time
1:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
An 8-horse field of fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on the dirt. The pace setup is relatively mixed. Foxy Zorra (PP 1) and Easy Seven (PP 6) both have mid-pack speed, while Aztec Empress (PP 4) is the fastest deep runner in the field. Menty B (PP 7) and Lulu’s Magic (PP 8) tend to run from behind and may benefit if the speed duel up front gets too hot. The dirt sprint bias at Fair Grounds favors speed, but with moderate early fractions expected, tactical runners should also be effective.
Key Contenders
Princess Celine (PP 2) — Morning line 5/2. This 3-year-old filly for trainer Destin Heath with Jose L. Ortiz aboard is the class of the field with a 40% career win rate (2 for 5), including two consecutive wins at Fair Grounds at six furlongs. Her mid-pack closing style has been effective and she gets the meet’s co-leading rider. She has been tagged as the Best Bet of the day by handicappers. She carries just 117 pounds as a 3-year-old, giving her a significant weight advantage over the older fillies at 122 pounds.
Menty B (PP 7) — Morning line 7/2. A 4-year-old filly for trainer Alexis Claire with Ben Curtis aboard, she has an outstanding 80% in-the-money rate from 10 career starts (2-6-8). She won her last start at six furlongs here and finished second the time before that. Curtis is riding at a 21% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate at the meet. She is a logical exacta partner with Princess Celine.
Secondary Choices
Aztec Empress (PP 4) — Morning line 4-1. Has a win at Lone Star Park and is the fastest deep runner in the field. She finished fourth last out in this class at Fair Grounds. The dirt sprint bias does not favor deep closers, but at 4-1 she offers some value if the pace collapses.
Foxy Zorra (PP 1) — Morning line 5-1. Gets the rail, which is advantageous in Fair Grounds dirt sprints. She has shown consistent mid-pack speed with two thirds from her last two starts here. At 5-1, the rail draw and forward style make her a logical inclusion in exotic bets.
Longshots
Spite Lite (PP 5) — Morning line 8-1. Ships in from Oaklawn Park where she finished third last out. However, she is on the stewards scratch watch, so confirm she is running before wagering.
Easy Seven (PP 6) — Morning line 8-1. A 5-year-old mare with a 29% career win rate but recent form has been poor (sixth and fourth in her last two). At 8-1, she could sneak into the bottom of a trifecta.
Betting Strategy
Princess Celine is a strong single candidate for multi-race wagers. Exacta box 2-7 is the primary play, with 7-1 and 1-5 as backup combinations. Trifecta keys with Princess Celine on top flowing to Menty B, Foxy Zorra, and Aztec Empress offer solid structure.
Selections
Win: 2 Princess Celine
Place: 7 Menty B
Show: 1 Foxy Zorra
Race 4 — Claiming $30,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $23,000
Post Time
2:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
An 8-horse field of fillies and mares at six furlongs. The Great Maybe (PP 1) is listed as the fastest stalker, while Ice Cold Blonde (PP 4) and California Smoke (PP 3) tend to stalk from further back. Danzig’s Dora (PP 8) shows mid-pack leading tendencies. The pace looks moderately honest, and the rail draw for The Great Maybe, combined with the track’s inside speed bias, creates an ideal setup for the favorite. First-time blinkers are noted for The Great Maybe, Watering, and Say I Do Sadie.
Key Contenders
The Great Maybe (PP 1) — Morning line 3-1. This 6-year-old mare trained by Michael Stidham with Jareth Loveberry aboard gets the prized rail draw in a dirt sprint. She finished second in tougher company last out and has the highest figure in the field. Stidham adds first-time blinkers, a positive equipment change, and the class drop from higher-level races gives her a significant edge. She has been named a Best Bet by handicappers. Loveberry has been among the leading riders at Fair Grounds all season with a George Woolf Memorial Jockey Award finalist nomination.
Say I Do Sadie (PP 2) — Morning line 7/2. Trained by leading Fair Grounds trainer Joe Sharp with Jose L. Ortiz aboard. Sharp leads the meet with 23 wins from 100 starts, and Ortiz is the co-leading rider. The Sharp-Ortiz combination is one of the most dangerous at the current meet. She also gets first-time blinkers and draws favorably at post 2 on a track that rewards inside posts in dirt sprints.
Secondary Choices
Danzig’s Dora (PP 8) — Morning line 5-1. Trained by Eddie Kenneally with Mitchell Murrill riding, she won her last start at six furlongs on dirt here and has a 33% career win rate. Murrill is riding at a strong 17% win rate and 49% in-the-money rate. The outside post is a drawback, but her recent form and connections warrant respect.
California Smoke (PP 3) — Morning line 6-1. Won at Churchill Downs and finished fourth last out at Fair Grounds. She draws a good inside post at 3, which should help her secure an efficient position early.
Ice Cold Blonde (PP 4) — Morning line 6-1. Has a 50% win rate from just two starts, including a victory last out at six furlongs here. Her trainer Whitney Zeringue Jr. has a low in-the-money rate at the meet, which is a concern, but the horse has shown talent.
Longshots
P. O. S. H. Posh (PP 7) — Morning line 8-1. Trained by J. Keith Desormeaux, she won on the turf last out but is trying dirt today. At 8-1, the surface switch makes her a risky play, but she has hit the board in 50% of career starts.
Betting Strategy
The Great Maybe is the primary selection with Say I Do Sadie as the key exacta partner. Exacta box 1-4 (with Ice Cold Blonde at post 4), 4-3, and 3-8 are recommended combinations. Trifecta key: 1 with 2,3,4,8 for second and third. This race is solid enough to single The Great Maybe in the Pick 5 if you want to save capital for larger fields.
Selections
Win: 1 The Great Maybe
Place: 2 Say I Do Sadie
Show: 8 Danzig’s Dora
Race 5 — Starter Optional Claiming $10,000, 7.5 Furlongs Turf, Purse $19,000
Post Time
2:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
An 11-horse field (pending scratches) of fillies and mares going 7.5 furlongs on the turf. Irish Kitten (PP 1) and Start Singing (PP 5) have shown front-running tendencies, which sets up a potentially contested pace. The turf closer bias at Fair Grounds — with closers winning 51% of turf routes this meet — makes this a prime race for off-the-pace runners. With a full field and likely honest fractions, late runners should have ample opportunity to close into a tiring pace.
Key Contenders
Izzy’s Monster (PP 2) — Morning line 5/2. A 6-year-old mare trained by leading trainer Joe Sharp with Jose L. Ortiz riding. This horse benefits from the dominant Sharp-Ortiz connection and has been named a Best Bet by handicappers. The mid-pack running style should suit a turf race where closers dominate. She draws an inside post that will allow her to save ground.
Madison Rae (PP 7) — Morning line 3-1. Trained by Jonathan Wong with Harry Hernandez aboard, she is ranked second by algorithmic projections. Her form suggests she can sit mid-pack and produce a run in the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Slam Diego (PP 8) — Morning line 5-1. Trained by Robertino Diodoro with Axel Concepcion riding, she ships in from a competitive circuit and draws a mid-outside post. She should be able to settle into a stalking position.
Elle Est Forte (PP 10) — Morning line 8-1. A veteran 8-year-old mare trained by Michael Maker with Ben Curtis up. Maker’s expertise and Curtis’s strong meet stats give this horse a right to be in the frame at a price.
Start Singing (PP 5) — Morning line 8-1. A 7-year-old mare for trainer Steven Duke with Jareth Loveberry riding. She has front-running speed but the turf bias works against her. She could be dangerous if left alone on an uncontested lead.
Longshots
April’s Gem (PP 6) — Morning line 30-1. A 9-year-old veteran who would need a significant pace collapse to factor, but at massive odds she could fill out a trifecta or superfecta at a price.
Im Singled Up (PP 9) — Morning line 8-1. On the veterinarian scratch watch, so she may not start. If she does run, the 5-pound weight allowance with apprentice Jamison Mudd is notable.
Betting Strategy
Izzy’s Monster is the clear top choice and can be singled in the Pick 5. Exacta box 2-7 is the primary play, with 7-8 and 8-9 as secondary combinations. Trifecta: 2/7/8 box and 7/8/9 box provide coverage. This race closes the Pick 5 sequence, so consider spreading if the carryover warrants it.
Selections
Win: 2 Izzy’s Monster
Place: 7 Madison Rae
Show: 8 Slam Diego
Race 6 — Starter Allowance, 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt, Purse $30,000
Post Time
3:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A 7-horse field (pending scratches) going a mile and 70 yards on the dirt. This race could be significantly impacted by scratches — Fountain Run (PP 2) is on the trainer scratch watch, Face the Future (PP 7) is flagged for veterinarian, and Interlock Empire (PP 4) is main-track-only. Django (PP 3) and Golddiggendevil (PP 5) both show forward tendencies and could set up a contested pace along the front end. In dirt routes, early speed wins about 42% of the time, with inside posts holding a 50% edge. The honest pace scenario could benefit a stalker who can save ground.
Key Contenders
Interlock Empire (PP 4) — Morning line 3-1 (per algorithm rankings). Trained by Jonathan Wong with Harry Hernandez aboard, this 6-year-old gelding draws a middle post and is the top algorithmic selection. However, he is flagged as main-track-only on the scratch watch, so monitor his status.
Golddiggendevil (PP 5) — Morning line 4-1. A 7-year-old gelding trained by Thomas Amoss with Jose L. Ortiz in the irons. Amoss is a powerhouse trainer at Fair Grounds, and Ortiz’s presence signals confidence. This horse has tactical speed and should rate just off the leaders.
Django (PP 3) — Morning line 9/2. A 5-year-old horse trained by Kenneth McPeek with Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. riding. McPeek is a major national operation and Hernandez is a top-class rider. Django should press the pace and could be tough to catch if he gets a clear run into the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Fountain Run (PP 2) — Morning line 4-1. Trained by Peter Eurton with Ben Curtis aboard. Eurton’s first season at Fair Grounds has been competitive, and Curtis is one of the meet’s top riders. However, Fountain Run is on the trainer scratch watch. If he runs, his inside draw and class give him a chance.
White Whale (PP 1) — Morning line 5-1. Gets the rail in a dirt route, which is statistically significant at Fair Grounds. A 4-year-old colt trained by Michael Tomlinson with Axel Concepcion up.
Longshots
Nassau Circle (PP 6) — Morning line 10-1. Trained by Hall of Fame trainer Albert Stall Jr., which always commands attention, but at 10-1 he would need pace help to factor.
Betting Strategy
This race has significant scratch uncertainty that could reshape the entire field. If Interlock Empire and Fountain Run both scratch, Django and Golddiggendevil become the primary contenders in a much smaller field. Exacta box 4-3, 3-2, and 2-1 are the recommended combinations if the full field runs. Trifecta: 2/3/4 box and 1/2/3 box.
Selections
Win: 5 Golddiggendevil
Place: 3 Django
Show: 4 Interlock Empire
Race 7 — Allowance Optional Claiming $20,000, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $56,000
Post Time
3:45 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A 10-horse field (pending scratches) of Louisiana-bred older horses going a mile on the turf. Passing Judgment (PP 1) could set the early pace, while Social Solution (PP 3) and Coffee County (PP 5) may press from off the pace. With the turf route closer bias at 51%, this race sets up beautifully for horses who can come from behind. The rail is set at 7 feet, providing a slightly wider course that benefits runners saving ground along the inside.
Key Contenders
Calicoco (PP 6) — Morning line 7/2. Trained by Shane Wilson with Isaac Castillo riding, this 6-year-old gelding is the top algorithmic selection and is highly regarded by handicappers. Castillo has a 21% win rate from 63 starts at the meet. Calicoco’s tactical style should allow him to sit in mid-pack and produce a closing kick on a turf course that overwhelmingly favors his running style.
Magnolia West (PP 2) — Morning line 4-1. A 4-year-old colt also trained by Shane Wilson, this horse draws well at post 2 and could save ground along the inside. Wilson sending out two main contenders increases the barn’s overall win probability.
Secondary Choices
Big Chopper (PP 7) — Morning line 9/2. A 7-year-old horse trained by Jayde Gelner who gets a 5-pound weight allowance with apprentice Jamison Mudd. The weight break at 115 pounds compared to 120-122 for most rivals is significant over a mile on the turf.
Slick and Fast (PP 9) — Morning line 8-1. Trained by Sam B. David Jr. with Marcelino Pedroza Jr. aboard. His outside draw could work to his advantage if he settles into a closing position.
Sonya Knows Better (PP 8) — Morning line 8-1. Colby J. Hernandez rides for trainer Samuel Breaux. At 8-1, he represents value if he can produce a late run.
Longshots
Passing Judgment (PP 1) — Morning line 8-1. A 6-year-old horse trained by Gregory Foley with Declan Cannon riding. He could inherit the lead from the rail, but turf front-runners have struggled mightily at this meet. Still, if he steals away with soft fractions, he could hang on at a price.
Social Solution (PP 3) — Morning line 20-1. A deep longshot but has some turf experience. At massive odds, a small saver bet could pay off handsomely if the pace scenario falls right.
Betting Strategy
The highest-purse turf race of the day offers a clear targeting opportunity given the closer bias. Exacta box 2-6 is the primary combination, with 6-9 and 9-1 as secondary plays. Trifecta: 2/6/9 box and 1/6/9 box. Calicoco and Magnolia West from the Wilson barn could provide a trainer-keyed exacta.
Selections
Win: 6 Calicoco
Place: 2 Magnolia West
Show: 9 Slick and Fast
Race 8 — Claiming $5,000, 5.5 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $15,000
Post Time
4:15 PM CST
Pace Analysis
A massive 12-horse field of Louisiana-bred older horses sprinting 5.5 furlongs on the dirt closes the card. This field is loaded with speed. Oak Hill Lg (PP 5) is a fast front-runner, Like This (PP 7) is the fastest leader type, and Half Way There (PP 9) has won two in a row showing slower leading speed. With multiple speed horses in a large field, the pace could be red-hot, setting up a scenario where stalkers and closers are rewarded — a departure from the normal sprint speed bias. The half-furlong shorter distance (5.5 furlongs versus 6 furlongs) adds urgency to the pace and could cause a speed duel that benefits off-the-pace runners.
Key Contenders
Speightful One (PP 3) — Morning line 4-1. A 5-year-old gelding with a 28% career win rate (7 for 25) trained by David Terre with Hunter Rea riding. His fastest stalker style is ideal for a race with this much early speed. He finished seventh last out but has a strong enough back class to rebound. He sits on the veterinarian scratch watch, so confirmation is essential before wagering. Rea has a 20% win rate from 5 starts in this type of race.
Half Way There (PP 9) — Morning line 8-1. This 4-year-old gelding for trainer Sturges Ducoing with Ben Curtis aboard has won two straight at six furlongs here. Curtis has a 24% win rate at the meet, and Ducoing’s barn is running at a remarkable 38% win rate. Although his “slower leads” style could mean he gets caught in the speed duel, his current form cycle is the hottest in the field.
Secondary Choices
Sono (PP 6) — Morning line 6-1. Trained by Keith Bourgeois with Jareth Loveberry aboard, this 6-year-old gelding stalks from mid-pack. Loveberry is a perennial leading rider at Fair Grounds and a George Woolf Award finalist. Sono has been competitive in his last two starts (fourth and second) and is likely to benefit from the expected hot pace.
Sonofaship (PP 2) — Morning line 6-1. Trained by Rylee Magnon with James Graham riding, he finished second last out and won the start before that at six furlongs here. His inside post at 2 is a significant advantage in Fair Grounds dirt sprints. He fits the mid-pack leader profile that works well in these conditions.
Honor That Dude (PP 11) — Morning line 6-1. Won his last start at six furlongs here but draws the far outside at post 11 in a 12-horse field. He carries top weight at 124 pounds. His slower closer style could work in a pace meltdown, but the wide draw and top weight are concerns.
Longshots
Steauxlit (PP 10) — Morning line 12-1. A mid-pack closer trained by Allen Landry with Pedroza Jr. riding. He has won at Delta Downs recently and could hit the board at a price in a speed-favoring collapse scenario.
The Speedy One (PP 8) — Morning line 20-1. A deep mid-pack runner at massive odds. He finished third two starts ago and could sneak into a trifecta or superfecta at a generous price.
Betting Strategy
This large-field sprint offers the best exotic betting opportunities of the day. With so much speed, the pace collapse scenario is live, making this an ideal race for trifecta and superfecta plays. Exacta box 3-9, 9-2, and 2-5 are the recommended combinations. Trifecta: 2/3/9 box and 2/5/9 box. For superfecta, use 3/9/8/2 as a base and expand from there. At 12-1 and 20-1 respectively, Steauxlit and The Speedy One provide value in the lower exotic slots.
Selections
Win: 3 Speightful One
Place: 9 Half Way There
Show: 6 Sono
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose L. Ortiz is the co-leading rider at the Fair Grounds meet, tied with Paco Lopez at 37 wins through the midpoint of the season. Ortiz has posted a 27% win rate and 57% in-the-money rate from 258 mounts this season. He rides in Races 1 (Antiphon), 2 (Calling On Heaven), 3 (Princess Celine), 4 (Say I Do Sadie), 5 (Izzy’s Monster), and 6 (Golddiggendevil). Any horse he rides today deserves serious consideration simply based on his current form. He won the Jockey of the Week award in January after victories in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and the Marie G. Krantz Memorial. His overall 2026 earnings stand at over $2.4 million.
Jareth Loveberry is one of five finalists for the prestigious George Woolf Memorial Jockey Award and has been a perennial leading rider at Fair Grounds since 2021. He rides in Races 1 (Berndt Marshmallow), 4 (The Great Maybe), 5 (Start Singing), and 8 (Sono). He has a 15% win rate at the meet with strong in-the-money numbers.
Ben Curtis has posted a 21% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate from 108 mounts at the meet. He rides in Races 3 (Menty B), 5 (Elle Est Forte), 6 (Fountain Run), and 8 (Half Way There). He is a reliable rider who consistently puts his mounts in competitive positions.
Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. rides in Races 1 (Jus Surprise Me) and 6 (Django). He was the 2025 leading rider nationally and brings top-level skill to any mount. His 2025 stat line at Fair Grounds showed 120 wins from 742 mounts.
Mitchell Murrill has a solid 17% win rate and 49% in-the-money rate from 169 mounts this meet. He rides Danzig’s Dora (PP 8) in Race 4 and April’s Gem (PP 6) in Race 5.
Isaac Castillo has fired 21% winners from 63 starts this meet with a 48% in-the-money rate. He rides Clearly Artemus (PP 2) in Race 1 and Calicoco (PP 6) in Race 7. He could provide excellent value on the Wilson-trained entries.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Joe Sharp leads the trainer standings with 23 wins from 100 starts through the midpoint of the meet, continuing his dominant run after winning the local title last season. He has a 31% win rate and 59% in-the-money rate at the meet. He trains Say I Do Sadie (PP 2, Race 4) and Izzy’s Monster (PP 2, Race 5). Any Sharp starter should be given extra weight in handicapping.
Michael Maker trains Calling On Heaven (PP 7, Race 2) and Elle Est Forte (PP 10, Race 5). Maker is one of the most successful trainers in North America with expertise at manipulating class levels. His entry of Calling On Heaven dropping to $30,000 maiden claiming with Ortiz aboard is a major red flag for the competition.
Peter Eurton has established a string at Fair Grounds for the first time this season. He trains Sully (PP 4, Race 2) and Fountain Run (PP 2, Race 6). His California-based operation brings a different angle, and his horses have been competitive.
Shane Wilson trains both Antiphon (PP 6, Race 1) and the 1-2 punch of Magnolia West (PP 2) and Calicoco (PP 6) in Race 7. Wilson has a 11% win rate but a 40% in-the-money rate from 121 starts, indicating his horses frequently compete at a high level. Having two runners in Race 7 gives his barn a strong chance.
Michael Stidham trains The Great Maybe (PP 1, Race 4) and Watering (PP 5, Race 4). The stablemate entry creates a tactical advantage, as Watering can potentially ensure the pace favors The Great Maybe.
Thomas Amoss trains Golddiggendevil (PP 5, Race 6). Amoss is one of the most successful trainers in Fair Grounds history and always dangerous in starter and allowance company.
Sturges Ducoing trains Half Way There (PP 9) and Samurai’s Grandson (PP 12) in Race 8, with a remarkable 38% win rate from 13 starts at the meet. His hot barn is a significant angle.
Keith Bourgeois, now primarily training, has a 26% win rate from 23 starts. He sends out Sono (PP 6) in Race 8.
Alexis Claire trains Menty B (PP 7, Race 3) with a 25% win rate and 54% in-the-money rate from 24 starts. This is an outfit that punches above its weight class.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The day’s best single is Princess Celine (PP 2, Race 3) at a morning line of 5/2. With Jose L. Ortiz in the saddle, back-to-back wins at the track, and a clear class edge in a $7,500 claimer, she is the most reliable horse on the card. Use her as a single in multi-race wagers to save capital for more contentious races.
The Great Maybe (PP 1, Race 4) at morning line 3-1 with the rail draw, first-time blinkers, and a class drop is a second strong single candidate.
Izzy’s Monster (PP 2, Race 5) at morning line 5/2 benefits from the dominant Sharp-Ortiz combination and the turf closer bias.
The Pick 5 (Races 1-5) strategy should center on using Victory Prince and Antiphon in Race 1, Calling On Heaven and Sully in Race 2, singling Princess Celine in Race 3, singling or near-singling The Great Maybe with Say I Do Sadie as a backup in Race 4, and singling or near-singling Izzy’s Monster in Race 5. A tighter ticket structure: (7,6/7,4/2/1,2/2) gives manageable cost with strong profit potential.
The best value play on the card is Half Way There (PP 9, Race 8) at morning line 8-1. He has won two straight, benefits from a trainer running at 38% winners, and gets Ben Curtis in the irons. With a projected speed duel in a 12-horse field, he could get a perfect stalking trip. Compared to the 4-1 morning line favorite Speightful One — who is on the veterinarian scratch watch — Half Way There offers more value.
In Race 7, Calicoco (PP 6) at 7/2 with the turf closer bias providing a tailwind is a strong play. Keying him on top of a trifecta flowing to Magnolia West (PP 2) and Slick and Fast (PP 9) provides a solid exotic structure.
Race 2 could offer a rare opportunity. If Calling On Heaven scratches due to his veterinarian flag, Sully at morning line 2-1 would become an even shorter price. In that scenario, the exacta and trifecta become more playable using Sully on top with Somekinda Mischief and Prince Ben underneath.
Race 1 is the most wide-open event on the card with a large field of maidens. Consider spreading more broadly here in multi-race sequences rather than trying to single. The turf closer bias does narrow the focus to Victory Prince, Antiphon, and Lil Central, but maiden races inherently carry more uncertainty.
For daily doubles, the Race 1/Race 2 double using Victory Prince and Antiphon in Race 1 with Calling On Heaven in Race 2 provides a logical structure. The Race 7/Race 8 closing double using Calicoco in Race 7 with Speightful One and Half Way There in Race 8 offers the final play of the afternoon.
Good luck today, and remember to check the scratch sheet before finalizing all wagers.
